Instant Reaction: Tesla Fast Tracks Affordable Models After Earnings Miss

Published Apr 23, 2024, 9:11 PM

Tesla says it will accelerate the launch of more affordable models after reporting worse-than-expected profit and revenue for a third consecutive quarter. Bloomberg Radio hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Ross Gerber, CEO at Geber Kawasaki Wealth Management, Bloomberg Businessweek Columnist Max Chafkin and Bloomberg Technology co-host Ed Ludlow for instant analysis and reaction. 

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All right, Well, shares of Tesla are higher in the after hours right now as investors continue to digest those first quarter earnings numbers. Global vehicle inventory rose to twenty eight days. It's a huge jump from the fifteen days at the end of last quarter. Shares high right now by just about five percent. First quarter revenue coming in at twenty one point three billion dollars that was below estimates of twenty two point three billion dollars. Also a missed when it comes to EPs adjusted EPs, I should say that coming in at forty five cents versus estimates of fifty two.

Cents, shares a teslap about five and a half percent in the aftermarket, but also Tesla to accelerate the launch of more affordable models at getting a red sticky by our team here at Bloomberg. All right, so let's get to it with us, Ross Gerber, president and CEO at Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, and also Bloomberg BusinessWeek columnist Max Chafkin. Ross out there in Santa Monica, California. Max here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokeer studio getting ready for another round of Tesla bingo.

We'll get it do in just a moment.

Ross investors like it. What do you make of this report looking backwards looking forwards?

Well, I think the good part of the report, because this is really the only good part of the report, is them saying that they're going to accelerate the production of this next gen vehicle platform. And they were pretty vague about what they're calling this or you know what robo taxi is or is a model to coming, And I think that'll be clarified on the conference call. So you know, once again, we don't really watch after hours trading because he really doesn't represent all the participants and so, and we haven't seen the conference call yet, so we'll see how this stock trades over the next several months. But but there really isn't any other good news in that report other than them saying they're going to accelerate production even though they just fired all the people that are in charge of accelerating production.

Hey, Ross, remind everybody take a step back here, because Carol and I were looking at the terminal a little earlier. You've you know, you are a longtime Tesla bull until you weren't, and you were a longtime believer and have been a longtime believer in the company. You guys still own a substantial number of shares over at gerber Kawasaki, But what is your position right now in Tesla moving forward?

So my position is that Tesla is a wonderful company that has enormous potential with the CEO who has become so divisive that people won't buy the cars. And that's why saying is just going to produce more cars doesn't address the real issue is why they're not selling cars today, and that's the issue that needs to be addressed that isn't being addressed. So as a shareholder, we have to assess what the future earnings potential of a company is based off what their business model is. And when we start investing in Tesla over ten years ago, and we've had a great run up until the purchase of Twitter, and so we've been lowering our position because what we feel is that Elon's behavior has hurt the brand in such a way that consumers actually don't want to buy a Tesla. It's just the best car on the road at the best price, so people buy the car reluctantly at this point, So I think, you know, we've got these problems to solve, and I'm not sure if that will be addressed on the conference call today. And that's you know, And I don't like being called a Tesla bear because I actually think they could turn the company around pretty quickly if Elon changed his behavior and stopped attacking everybody.

But I just don't think that's going to happen.

And so so I think the bigger issue that isn't being addressed is doesn't matter how many cars Tesla makes if nobody will buy them.

All Right, So Max chaff can come on and you guys do the Elon Inc.

Podcast.

You're constantly looking at what he says, what he does. You're looking at his kind of his assets, his portfolio, your initial thoughts on kind of the headlines we got.

Yeah, just to kind of underlo Ross is saying something like this, but like the note about the new products is very vague. It doesn't say we're going to have a model too, and it's going to come out on this state, which is what investors, many investors have been hoping for. It says it sounds like it's saying, I'm reading it correctly, They're going to try to essentially make the current models more affordable. Now that obviously could allow them to sell more cars, but it's a slightly different spin on things than what many people have been inspecting. The other thing is, as Ross is saying, you know, on a Tesla Earning's day, what Elon says, and more importantly, how he says it is just as important as as what's in these numbers, because he is going to hopefully anyway clarify some of this. We also hopefully get a sense of like where things stand with robotaxi, where things stand with potential affordable cars, and investors seemed to react to based on his optimism, you know, a couple quarters ago when he was in this kind of dower mood, we saw the stock go down. So it's like, do we get an optimistic version of Elon or the kind of very dour, pessimistic Elon.

Well, I wonder if you have a question for Ross Max.

Yeah, Ross, what is your reading on this on this product, on this paragraph about the product?

Well, I think you're dead right about the two things you just said.

Number one, they're of course vague because of the legality of it. If they put this down and they don't do it right, and since nobody seems to know what Elon's going to do, and I'm sure that everybody understands that nobody within Tesla knows what the business plan is either because they just don't at this point.

But I think secondly, a.

Lot of it will be how does Elon answer these questions from investors during the conference call?

And what you said is right.

If we have sort of a very positive Elon and he's refocused and he's going to be working at Tesla more and you know, he can play the room right, maybe we get a little rally on the stock, but it doesn't change the fundamentals. If he doesn't play the room right, this becomes a bloodbath. So you know, I'm just hoping that he understands the damage that he's done and starts to mitigate this versus diving in and sort of doubling down.

It will be interesting to see if Twitter comes up or sorry X comes up, you know, because there is this question in this sense that he's spent gee Whiz a lot of time talking about X, tweeting about X, doing X related things. There's even a potential or they're going to have a Grock integration inside of the Tesla's and I think that to people who are really bought into the ev story rather than the you know, Elon Musk genius story, which those are two important constituencies here. I think for Tesla stock, you know, they would like to see him spend less time on his social media network.

Yeah, well, it's not just less time, it's what he's saying, you know, It's like it's not the time, it's that what he's saying oftentimes is super divisive and basically racist. So it's like, it's really hard to sell products to people when the CEO says things that are really hurtful to people, including me.

For that matter.

Now, and we've talked with you about that absolutely ross. What could Elon say on the call, or Elon and company say on the call that would make you more excited about the company or once again say you know kind of oh Elon really well.

If I had my dream come true, he'd say I'm coming back to work at Tesla, because he basically doesn't work at Tesla, and he would say, I'm done tweeting all this garbage and politics. I'm going to really focus on advancing sustainable transportation and energy, and that we're going to release this lower priced car and the strategy that we all bought into three years ago, you know, and the stock was at all time highs and earnings were going up, you know, fifty hundred percent a year.

You know, it was like it was like a different world than today.

And it's amazing to me he doesn't understand this difference, that that really is his responsibility. And so as a shareholder, I have to say it's an extremely distressing time because the valuation of Tesla is premised off all these great technological innovations, none of which have come to fruition yet. So his focus is one hundred percent what needs to be happening right now.

Hey, Ross, I do want to just end with with one last question about the cost of producing these vehicles. It seems like Tesla is doing everything I can to bring down the cost of producing these cars, the cost of goods sold to Are they what numbers do you want to see there?

Well, they are, but their margins continue to go lower. If you look at the report, which I've only had a minute to look at, you know, their vehicle margins continue to go lower. They're operating margins go lower. Their net margins go lower, so they're able to lower the price of the car. But what they're not able to do is keep that going as fast as they're they're lowering the price of the vehicles, so it's still hurting them even though they're lowering the cost of the car, and it doesn't bring in a bigger market.

But you're not creating any demand. And this is I have said it a hundred times. Every company in America advertises for a reason.

People need to know why your products are superior. And all the Tesla people have bought in Teslas, you know, so all these YouTubers can tweet all they want, but everybody wanted to Tesla bought a Tesla. So you've got to get new customers. And the new customers are being told that charging sucks and evs are bad and this and that and that, and Donald Trump says they're bad and this is all they see all day. And then it's like, why would they go buy a Tesla because there's not one ad anywhere that tells you how great the cars are?

Because they are.

Great, right and you still own them right real quickly?

Yes or no, yeah I do.

I just don't understand why they don't tell people how great their vehicles are.

All right, Ross Gerbert, so appreciated. We know you've got to I think run over to our TV guys. President CEO Gerba Kawasaki, so appreciate you joining us. Max Chafkin is staying with us a Bloomberg BusinessWeek and we want to roll into the conversation.

Ed Ludlow, Yeah, he's co host of Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV. He joins us from the San Francisco Beer. I do want to note care all the Tesla first quarter automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits is at sixteen point four percent yea for the quarter.

Stack up six point three percent in the aftermarket.

Hey, I'd come on in here and explain why you think the stock is moving higher given that a lot of these numbers came in below estimates.

Yeah. I think that the print and the numbers in after has have nothing to do with the quarter gone. Everyone's looked past it. Frankly, what the shareholder deck outlines is almost line line exactly what Danna and I outlined in the Big Take on Sunday, which is on the affordable ev A big body of work had already been done at the component and production process level, and Tesla is moving forward with a more affordable lineup of evs based on that technology. It was really misunderstood. It's like the world was banking on the Honda Civic of evs and Tesla to be the one to bring it. But my understanding from sources that was never the case. And if you read the shareholder deck, they spell it out pretty clearly. They've looked at this kind of more holistically and there will be more affordable evs coming late twenty twenty five. Caution caveat Muskers often miss his own deadlines.

You know that.

I always say that, but it's like.

A something for everyone.

Yeah, you know that, And that was me protecting myself from all the people who may go after me on social media. But explicitly it states that they are working on a purpose built ROBOTAXI. And so we went into this saying, if you're a Wall Street institutional giant who really wanted to see an affordable EV, or you're the technology investor or the retail investor that's kind of all in on the Tesla thesis around autonomy, you've got that as well, And really I think the market adjoining in hands to play that in after hours.

You know, the question is like what is an affordable EV And I think one of the things one of the ways that Elon Musk could clarify is to is to sort of say that, you know, he over the weekend amid all this speculation, he tweeted a screenshot showing the model. Why priced at twenty nine thousand dollars sounds prettyffordable. Course that includes tax credit, which you know not everybody gets, and a and like a five thousand dollars sort of assumption of gas savings.

So so like you could.

Imagine a situation where he tries to argue, like, look, we're going to cut a bunch of costs out of this thing, and we're going to make it affordable as is, like we don't need an additional model, which is a really intriguing proposal. That is a huge, you know, pretty big departure from how the car industry normally does things, and in certain ways I get is saying maybe not that surprising, right, that's kind of you know, Elon Musk has long model this company after Apple. You know, Apple sells a very you know, modest product line all the products kind of look the same. They're all kind of expensive. You know, you could sort of imagine his effort to do this, and and you know, who knows if it's going to work, but it definitely is outside of what you know, a normal sort of car company, nor normal car company analyst would expect to see, would want to see.

You know, guys, I'm looking at a live blog Craik Kanter weighing in our BNF Electric Vehicle analysts and saying, you know where he talks about these new models and talks about I don't know, new models ahead of our previously communicated startup production the second half of twenty twenty five, accelerating that launch, he he writes by including these statements in the investor decka shows Tesla has identified that a lack of new models is a problem. But are there actually actions being taken or just a continued lack of clarity? And I guess you know, I'm going to go back to you Max for a second, like, right, we want a little bit more specifics, right, And what this means?

Yeah, again, it almost it does have the feel of a deck that's being written for maximum optionality, and and you know this is all happening.

Very very quickly.

You know, we saw we've seen Elon Musk get re engaged. It appears in any case, you know, connected this layoff in a way that has seemed, at least according to you know, the reports that Bloomberg is published that Ed has has written very hasty, and so you do wonder like maybe they are trying to figure this out as we speak, and and and who knows if we're definitely going to get that level of clarity on the call from Elon Musk, although given Elon Musk like he cannot help himself but sort of say controversial things. You know, he's got that sort of trump characteristic of being sort of really really honest. Sometimes to a fault, he may you know, spout something off that could send the stock in any number of directions.

And to that point, you know, what's like, what's what are you looking for on the call at if you're when you're tuning.

In the car. So I don't want to be inconsistent, you know, I posted in the blog before we kick things off, clarity, but actually to be fair, I think that Tesla has given us one single line of clarity. So I'm just going to read it. This update may resolve in a result in achieving less cost reductions than previously expected. So Carol read out the section in which they outline the explanation. There will be multiple affordable models, but I think that the market, and indeed, because Elon Musk kind of guided us there was thinking this will be a brand new model, maybe it will be called M two, Maybe it will specifically cost twenty five thousand US dollars. I think in that single line of the shareholder deck on page ten, they're saying it will be less expensive than the average cost of a Y or three. Now it will not be twenty five thousand dollars. And so now we go to the big picture clarity. How many of these things will you build? And what is the strategy with that visa v ROBOTAXI because they all occupy the same physical production space in Austin. Based on our understanding, I also would think maybe the tone of Elon Musk tim to answer your question, I thought he'd be a bit combative and frazzled. Yeah, now I just don't know.

Wait wait for surprise, all right, ed, Lola, We're gonna let you go because we know you've got a full play to continue. But of course Bloomberg Technology co host ed Ludlow. But we got to talk about with Max final minute here or so Elon Bingo right.

You know again, I've talked about this three months ago. This is a thing that many Tesla watchers, bulls bears, everybody in between, Elon Musk, super fans, Elon Musk's haters tend to do, which is to kind of create a Bingo card and look for some of his catchphrases. So we at the Elon Ing Podcast, we've got a new episode out right now and we have this Bingo card. Just want to flag a few items. Horse that would be one. Now, Elon Musk has said that anyone who's driving a non autonomous card not a robotaxi, it'll be like driving a horse compared to a car. So see if he tries that line on us a few others and to Grock uh uh and uh for reasonably optimistic. He's often reasonably optimistic about lots of things. So so yeah, lots of fun to be had here and we'll see if anyone gets bingo.

It's a fun card.

Quefully we'll get you back in three months and also earlier than three months. I'll be sure to check out the Elon Inc. Podcast wherever you get your podcast. That's Max Chafkin, a columnist for Bloomberg Business Week,