Evelyn Farkas Talks Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Published Nov 26, 2024, 8:18 PM

Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona University, talks about the prospects of stable cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah. She speaks with Bloomberg's Kailey Leinz. 

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netniah, who has just begun his televised remarks, will of course bring you the headlines from this as we get them, but we want to add the voice as we await the news here of Evelyn Farcas. She's executive director of the McCain Institute, joining us now here on Bloomberg TV and Radio Evelyn, as we await the words of Netanya who and clarity as to whether or not an agreement has been reached. The reporting suggests that this would be temporary sixty day ceasefire. How if it is agreed to, do you make sixty days something more permanent?

Kayleie, thank you for having me on. I think it needs to be really considered what kind of armed force might be in there to reinforce this agreement, because if there's no enforcement, I'm afraid the agreement won't hold. And there have been various proposals. Perhaps the IDF could go in there. It would of course require the United Nations to agree to that, which is a difficult proposition right now, given the perspective that a lot of the United Nations members have on Israel and the and the Israeli defense forces. You know how they have been fighting in Gaza.

Well, we are uh nettaniahu is is speaking as we mentioned Evelyn in Hebrew. We understand. But initially the first read of his comments in part say that he says the war will not end until residents can return to the North and all goals are accomplished, including that safe return. And it does raise the question of the goals Israel had here at the outset Evelyn, and to what extent they have been largely achieved. And that doesn't just go for in Lebanon, but in Gaza as well.

Well, I think Kelly clearly, the Israeli government has managed to neutralize Hesbala as a threat, and in doing so it has significantly weakened Iran, leaving a side of course, or let's add to it, what Israel has done in Gaza and what Israel has done directly in Iran, so Iran is much weakened. So there is an opportunity now to put pressure on Iran to make a bigger deal, meaning to stop the fighting through the power they have over Hamas in Gaza, and there's an opportunity to maybe get Iran's nuclear program back in the box if you will. Yeah.

And Netanyahu is now saying that he's determined to prevent Iran from having nuclear arms, So we're talking about the same thing here, Evelyn, and I do wonder if the role you think Iran has in the knowledge that it is going to take Iranian blessing, you would think, or at least allowance of it's proxy Hezbola to agree to a deal like this with Israel, if one is to be reached, I wonder what it signals to you, knowing that their proxies have been weakened, if Iran is going to sanction this.

Yeah, I mean I think Iran probably doesn't have a choice. Hesbelas significantly weakened. They probably want a break, if you will, a break from the fighting. My guess is that hesbel Lah would you know, probably be itching or would be willing to conduct more attacks against Israel in the future. That's why I think there needs to be some kind of mechanism for enforcement. But I don't think Iran has much of a choice. If Hesbela says we can't hold out, and if Iran wants to take some of the pressure off of itself again minimize the likelihood that Israel might do something further to further weaken Iran, whether it's in their nuclear facilities or elsewhere. I think Iran might be feeling like this is a good deal for the moment well.

And Iran also knows, as does Israel and Yahoo, as do the Iran and proxies, that fifty five days from now there will be a different US administration in place. Donald Trump will be the president and commander in chief. And I wonder at the extent to which Evelyn, you think that is factoring in to the timing of this, as it's been months of pushing for a deal like this one, and now three weeks after the election, it does seem like it could come to fruition.

Yeah. I think Iran is definitely concerned about what will happen under a US government led by President Trump. We know from media accounts that Iran tried to assassinate him, so they clearly didn't want him to be our next president. They are worried about this because Donald Trump has taken a hard line against Iran, so I would think that they're eager to have this deal. The Israelis, I think would be more likely to drag this out and offer a peace agreement, even if it's temporary, with Hezbollah, as a gift to incoming President Trump. So I'm a little bit skeptical Kelly, that this is going to get signed before the inauguration on January twentieth.

Okay, So, and it is worth pointing out is we're and if you're with us here on Bloomberg TV, you see that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nettnia who is still speaking. We have yet to see him specifically address a ceasefire or to hear from him on that. We're still waiting for that news, Evelyn. But fifty five days, I guess is not that long of a time. And what the question? I started with this notion that it could be a sixty day secession of hostilities window that would essentially bring us what five days in to a Trump presidency. How could that play in here? They say we'll pause things for now, but when Trump comes back, we're revisiting this.

Yeah, I mean, it's possible, and maybe Israel thinks that that they'll be in a better position then I think they will be. Frankly, given the relationship between Prime Minister Netteyahu and President Trump. So that is another option they could sign now and then, as you point out, I hadn't done the math, than the gifts to President Trump is a chance to revisit and chance to make another deal.

Well, we just heard from that Nyahu saying the duration of the truce in Lebanon depends on developments. He says, if Hesbela chooses to rearm, then Israel will attack once again. As we consider here, Evelyn, this notion that things can be temporary or they could be longer in duration, depending on the decisions here of the Iranian proxies. You were just speaking about this notion that they have been materially weakened, commanders taken out, infrastructure targeted by Israeli strikes. How long, realistically would it take Hesbela to reconstitute them themselves to be in the position to be as great a threat to Israel as it was beginning on October eighth and through now.

It's hard for me to say that's really kind of a military question. Clearly, they lost a lot of manpower. The people whose hands were blown off, they are not likely to be fighters, so they need to be replaced. They need to replace their weaponry because of course we know Israel has taken out large stockpiles all the places where Hesbola had kept their weapons, those have been eliminated. I don't think it takes that long, so you know, probably maybe six months to a year. So this isn't a window of opportunity for Israel, certainly, and I would imagine that the Iranians and Hesbola would be interested in, you know, quickly going to a ceasefire so that they can take advantage and try to rebuild.

And just again reminding our audience on Bloomberg TV and Radio that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netniel who is speaking, suggesting now that he will be bringing a truce agreement in Lebanon to the Cabinet for cabinet approval, which of course we understood that the cabinet was meeting today, so that might suggest this has not been fully agreed to yet, Evelyn. We also thought we might hear from President Biden today. I supposed we still could before he travels to Nantucket for Thanksgiving. And that plays into the fact that it was not just the US at the table here in these negotiations. In part this agreement was negotiated with the help of France and French President Emmanuel and Crone we understand was involved here. What do you make of the role of another ally, another mediating force in this knowing of course that there were many mediators at play in the talks that have yet to come to a fruitful ceasefire deal when it comes to Israel and Hamas.

Yeah, it is interesting that the French were involved. Of course, the French have a long history in and with Lebanon, and so they want to maintain their relevance in the Middle East. So I would imagine that was part of what was motivating France. But clearly they would also like to, you know, tamp down the danger that we're going to have a wider war in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel continuing to target one another directly. That's dangerous for the world, frankly, and so I think France was motivated to try to help us with the diplomacy. The Lebanese government, of course, is also involved because we the United States, we don't deal directly with Hesbolah because they're terrorist organizations. So the Lebanese government was essentially doing some of that go between work well.

That is an important point. There's obviously a distinction between the Lebanese government and Hezbola forces. To reiterate, Netanyahu here is saying that he will bring the Lebanon Truce agreement to the Security Cabinet for a vote, suggesting that vote has not happened yet, though he does say the truce proposed will help isolate Hamas and free hostages. We also just had a headline cross the Bloomberg Terminal that ten minutes from now, at least scheduled ten minutes from now one thirty pm Eastern time, Biden will be delivering remarks at the White House. I would presume, Evelyn, those remarks would pertain to this just before I let you go, knowing he is in the final weeks here of his presidency, which is fifty five days to go. As we've discussed, what would it mean if this can be achieved under this president in particular, who has been pushing for a ceasefire and said he wants part of his legacy to be greater peace in the Middle East.

Well, it would mean that he has achieved, of course, that objective, and he will have brought some peace to the Middle East. In the aftermath of the horrible attack that was conducted by Lebanese proxies by Hamas out of Gaza, and then of course the fact that the Hesbola struck Israel again the first time since, you know, in a massive way, since the two thousand and six negotiations to end the conflict between Hesbela and Israel in the north. So it would be an achievement, certainly, that would bring us closer to It will bring some peace and allow the people, the Israeli people to go back and live in the north and also the Lebanese people to live in their south. But it wouldn't solve the Hamas. It might make it easier to solve Hamas, but those are very different situations. So I'm a bit skeptical as to whether that would open the door wide enough.

All right, Evelyn, appreciate you joining us as we work through these headlines from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute

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