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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyJune 3rd, 2024
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.
Victoria Bill's terms.
It is now from Chicago, so as she could be with us because she writes these acute strategy notes which are be in the market and shut up and buy in video. Victoria, how can you buy in Vidia after the moonshot?
I mean, it's one of those things where when we're thinking about Nvidia and especially again the huge spur that we're seeing in the growth with AI or what some people might even call a bubble, it's honestly, the price from here is honestly has incredible upwards.
Bound to go even beyond the one thousand dollars mark.
And you know, right now we're looking at overall from Nvidia, like consensus expectations is around like five point forty eight per share.
The stock has just done really well.
It's very hard for me to argue otherwise, like es actually, when you're constantly beating earning expectations, like I just don't see the seller story for it.
Yeah, I think it's like through the highs that we saw yesterday as well. Now eleven thirty three is a pre market I don't even know what that means ten for one stocks.
But coming up here.
As well, Victoria, at the bottom of your note on Nvidia, you go to what's different now, which is it seems to be a new adult tech from the view.
Of banry On, is tech really wetted down.
To givoting both and share buyback for use of cash.
Absolutely.
I mean when we're thinking again, like the whole issue in terms of tech and how we're thinking about this is that like profit margins is well above like seventy five percent, And when we think about, for example, how to capitalize or how to get involved in these technology based stocks, I mean, whether it's smaller companies like super microcomputer, Nvidia being kind of the top player in terms of what we're looking at with AI, but also cryptocurrency and like GPU, like how.
All of that is, how all of that is processed.
Like again, like I think that there is a great like buyer story to be had here.
So Victor, I'm looking through your stock list and a lot of you know, kind of high valuation technology, biotech, healthcare.
But then you also.
Got to diamond Back Energy in there. Talk to us about energy and how you think about that in the context of some of you more higher multiple and higher growth names that you guys.
Like absolutely, so Diamondback when we think about basically it's independent oil natural gas company and a lot of what we're seeing right now in terms of whether that's the Biden administration pulling down on terariffs for when it comes to like ev vehicles, it's almost like a protectionary method, I would protectionary measure in order to kind of protect certain industries that are here. So basically it's been trading at like almost eight times earnings over the path over the past couple of years. They have a very strong team backing them. And then and then essentially again we have some protective measures that are coming in place where we're trying to be more cordial towards industries that are here within the US. So that's where I would see kind of the story for diamondback. And then also just in terms of like free cash flows as well into the hundreds of millions.
What's the value of cash within your strategy? Is it a bolt on or is it actually part of a strategy forward?
So cash in terms of how we think about it for our strategy. So we are an alternative investment firm, so a lot of what we are advocating for is alternative based, alternative based investing, so looking at things that are providing similar returns to a sixty forty portfolio, but have like not necessarily leveraging all that risk. So when we're thinking about cash, it's great to have in kind of the short term, but investing in more newer alternative forms of technology and industry because that is the future and that's the wave that we're that we'll be seeing that's coming down a year, two years down the road. But having cash in the moment, especially if you're someone who needs that for retirement or to buy White Sox tickets, absolutely in necessity So.
Victoria, how do you how do you guys at Benrian think about just valuation in the markets today. We've had a big, big move in the equity markets off of these October levels, and we've had some good earning and let's be clear, we did have some good earnings growth. Is that earnings growth enough to support this market from your perspective?
I think there's definitely a possibility for that right now. What we're seeing in terms of small cap stocks, small caps are kind of making a comeback, but they're still not as frothy as or they're a bit frothier than.
What we would want in the industry right.
Now, especially if we're thinking especially what we're seeing right.
Now is when we are trying to beat.
Out the S and P five hundred, it's the actively managed portfolios that tend to do much better than those more smaller ETFs. So if you're, for example, looking for an alternative that would provide very similar return profile to like a sixty forty combination of equities and bond, equities and bonds, then a lot of what we're looking at, for example, would be CTA, B tall MRSK, again basically attractive diversifieds that will allow you to gain that same sort of out but that you would get from a small cap stock, but not as but diversifying that risk.
Into June thirty, Victoria, what are you seeing clients actually doing?
What is the mood out there? After? I think the shock of selling mayon goal by not working out what's the mood right now?
So if I'm hearing you correctly, I think what you're asking is like, where are people kind of feeling? Where are people going in terms of where the equity markets are?
Yes, so that's good enough.
Yeah, so good. Good question.
Again, I think that a lot of people are trying to find that alpha out there in the market. We're seeing continuously high valuations, and so that's where I'm saying alternative investment strategies that will provide you a similar return profile, but again like reducing that beta or even providing a similar return profile, and then but diversifying across a very highly concentrated managed portfolio. That's where I think a lot of people are starting to head towards right now. But I think the appetite for that market again is it requires a hot It's a high educational.
Barrier when we talk. We're talking about lives.
But that's where I think a lot of people if you're being smart about the market and looking again for ways to get involved, especially in industries that are related to like evs semiconductors, that's where I think alternative investment strategies are coming in managed energy tiets are doing much better in that regard.
We got to be quick here, Victoria. But you mentioned it.
I mean the Chicago White Sox back fifty five years when I saw Nellie Fox hit a home run at Kimiski Park, It's like the worst team ever. What does Victoria Bills do to turn the Chicago White Sox around?
Hopes and prayers, thoughts and prayers.
But I think that what they're my understanding right now is that they're looking to move the White Sox Stadium, and I would hope also to potentially look at new management. Look, I am not a sports grilly by any stretch of the imagination, but I am like how there are Cubs fans that always have supported the Cubs. I will always support the White Sox, even if it's better interests.
My deepest sympathy is Victoria Bills. Thank you so much.
I called up the team and putting the show together Saturday and Sunday, and I said, we got.
To get Derek Wallbank on.
He's in Delhi and we want to talk to him about the crushing climate that he with his leadership out of Singapore or spirheading for Bloomberg News a temperatures from India on over across Southeast Asia. Something in the heart and soul of mister Wallbank. He joins us this morning off a small matter of an election in India. Derek Wallbank joins from Delhi where he provides leadership out of Singapore. Derek Mody is won and he is dominant, and it is a tension of a cosmopolitan southern India. I think Sacha Nadella playing cricket as a child versus the emotion of Hinduism of northern India. Can Mody bring these two regions, these two disparate Indias together.
Well, Tom, it's good to talk to you, my friend. It's you know, look it is. We don't do anything halfway here. It's about one hundred and eleven degrees fahrenheit outside and the world's largest democracy. The election results are coming out tomorrow. We got the exit polls just over the weekend, they show the exit polls, and I mean poles plural, there are a lot of them. They all are kind of hurting around this idea of a Mody landslide victory. They're sort of it depends in a range from a lot to really a lot. What they're showing if you sort of walk in the regional breakdowns is you are seeing the big JP that Modi leads and his allies doing really really well in their traditional sort of heartlands. But you're also sort of seeing a little bit of a pull in to some of those areas where they've had some difficulties in prior elections. You are seeing a little bit more of a national move and will have to see if the actual results sort of track that. You are seeing a little bit more of a regional spread.
Yeah, and Paul, we got a color this. This is important.
In America, we're hysterical about having three or four, maybe five languages. There are twenty three official languages in India.
And then all the dialects on top of that, just extraordinary place in the world. Derek, what does this mean for the politics of India going forward? Mister Mody, what will he do coming out of this election on the world stage, do you believe.
Well, So let me put this into sort of two camps. Let me say, in the India India locally camp, Let's say that the results track the X. That's you were looking at a landslide victory in that scenario, but not a can do whatever the heck he wants in terms of changing the constitution all of that sort of stuff. So there are some there are some guardrails, I guess, I would say, but it would be a very large mandate where he would be able to operasionally sort of go the same way your your investment sort of tracks there, I think on a on a global scale. You know, Look, it's no secret that the United States and the US allies really liked the idea of an ascend in India. Last year with the G twenty was a really big sort of coming out party for Modi himself. And and so India really wants to take a place on the world stage that is larger than it has held before. And it's going to be welcomed in getting there. And I think particularly what you should look for is what happens when things go a little bit sideways. Right, They had they had the issue with Canada in recent years where there was some real friction there over potential extra judicial killing, and Canada really wanted a little bit more back up on the world stage. When they were looking around, a lot of their friends weren't there as strongly as they thought they would, because I'm just not sure that a lot of people are going to be racing to go confront Mody they want him.
There, Derek, just because of the time.
I got a segiui here to what you're in the team recovering out of Singapore, which is to be polite. Excessive heat and the way you look at this is a physician once told me, it's not it's one hundred and eleven in Deli.
It's if they're lucky, the load.
Tonight will be eighty nine degrees. Derek, what is Bloomberg News reporting, I'm going to say, in a broad sense, from Manila to Dubai on the successive heat, Yeah.
It's it's absolutely stifling, Tom and I think that I think one of the things that we're showing is a lack of infrastructure to be able to deal with it.
Right.
There's not you know that you're seeing in some places power outages combined with this, so there really isn't that sort of rest. But I think broadly speaking, you're talking about places that are trying to figure out how they're going to live with this. It's going to be one of the big challenges that the body is going to be looking at is building up that infrastructure to be able to handle.
I think we level the.
Question and if anything runs out of water.
Traveling public comes to the rescue. Maybe I didn't miss buying a handbag or a watch or another pair of shoes, but I sure don't know.
I mean, and that's that's one of the things that you're seeing in Singapore to do right where you're where you're saying, what are we going to be able to do in this environment in Singapore?
Do you have looking.
Massive reclamation project function as a reservoir to be able to allow Singapore.
Certainly in the Europe broadly that it doesn't have to rely on a record last summer and.
Our forward at today are up about seven your house, because it really is.
And that's going not only in the frontalytic benefit Italy Spain all those waves.
Over years, and it's not like they're not spending money for the temperature five hundred, six hundred, seven hundred dollars. Where are you guys allocating your capital city?
Where do you see the opportunity now, I should say in your business.
So a few places. Right now, we're going through a massive replatforming of important technology systems, our reservation system, our property management system, and our loyalty platform. And so we've mentioned on the earliest call for the next couple of quarters will be.
How do you get people to call Mary a direct?
Call a hotel direct instead of some personal thing like I'm going to pick on booking dot com. I go to hotels where I can book the hotel directs stead at the desk, you know, be sure they can take missus King seven.
Lewis view luggages in proper. How do you get back to that personal service?
It's really through the Bonvoy platform. It's creating a suite of benefits and making sure through the Bonvoy platform we educate the consumer of the benefits of booking direct.
I'm just gonna this is what Lisa wants to talk about, So we're going there. Tony Cavano, how the Saint Regis mal Dives Voluly Resort, it's the best points guy Brian says, it's the best you know, bet Saint Regis in the world. Do you link with airplanes so Lisa Matteo can get there for the one week in September.
It's easy to get there.
How does Lisa Mateo pack the bag the little you know, surely have the knapsack thing and get to the mall dives?
How do you do that?
She jumps on Emirates, flies straight to Mollie and then there'll be a beautiful Saint Regis boat waiting for you to see right to the doc you do, or if you really want a beautiful view of that destination, you get on a seaplane which flies at about two thousand feet and you get to view all those.
Beautiful I've never seen her. George Clooney could walk so tony.
I mean, I see a lot of demand. The Maldive's great, that's for Lisa Manteo, but I see demand for the kind of the mid range. People want to take those longer term stays. I didn't know that that was a business until recently, but that really is a business where people want to take long term stays. Maybe they're contract workers are something like I've talked to us about that business.
Again, another interesting byproduct coming out of the pandemic this notion that folks, even if they're a little suboptimized, they can work from anywhere. There is a younger generation of nomads that wants to work from anywhere, and so the ability whether it's a traditional extended stay hotel like residents In, whether it's a more value focused extended stay product like Studio res Our new mid scale extended stay platform, or whether it's a bit longer term stay in an apartments by Marriott Bonvoy. There is a consumer that for their travel needs, is much better served with something focused on not a one or two night transience day, but really purpose built to accommodate that longer stay.
What are you doing with New York City?
The cheapest hotel in Manhattan, I think is eight hundred dollars a night. I'm kidding, But what's your plan for New York City?
Well, we'll continue to grow.
This city is remarkable and the pace at which it's recovered from a travel perspective is a terrific story. One of the great benefits of having such a broad brand portfolio across multiple quality tiers. We'll continue to grow at the luxury end we just announced, but at the same time we'll continue to grow with our new mid scale.
Our good friend David Gera loves to have a Gibson at the Old King Cole.
Tell me, you're not ruining the Saint Regis.
Absolutely, first floor. What are you doing right now at the Saint Regions Hotel.
You're blowing up the first floor floor of an icon What are you going to do with it?
We're just updating it. We're can it more convenient for our guests. We're improving some of the traffic flow. But we are absolutely not touching that iconic king hole.
I mean, this is great and what's so great about this? The restoration of the painting at the Old King Cole was like something out.
Of the Loofah. Did you get the invoice on that?
Somebody did? It didn't come to me, didn't come to you. Saint Regis is another brand that we just announced today. The iconic Pelican Hill resort on Newport Coast in southern California is going to be reflagged as a Saint Regis as well. So it's a brand that is real. This is a Newport Yeah, it's Don Brenn and the Irvine company.
Are you calling this hotel Alrian? You know? I mean, is this like a Pimco out post? Is that what it is?
Now?
I think they continue to be a valued client.
They'll be good, Tony. Thank you so much.
Congratulations in fourteen percent per your total return that off of Marriotte stock.
And thank you for the ninety day visits. Will Matteo m a T to the melt I see, tell them to get your slippers ready.
Thank you so much, Tony. If daily look at the front pages, Lisa Matteo, where to begin?
All right?
We're starting with something happening today in New York. This is really a lifeline for New York City families who are struggling to pay rent. The New York City Housing Authority they're reopening that waiting list for federal housing vouchers, which you know is Section eight. It closed back in December because it grew way too big. It grew to one hundred and twenty eight thousand families. Now the waiting list has dropped down to about thirty seven hundred, so they're opening it up again. But here's the problem, and the New York Times really gets into this fantastically, is that the city doesn't have enough apartments where the city vouchers can be used. So yes, they're opening this wait list, but it's a mess.
Yeah, it's change, you know, I see it from a rarefied atmosphere. We'd a life changing moment. What do you tell your kids? I'm like, you know, go leave. But then what do you do with eight people in Queen's I mean, that's really what we've come up to.
I mean, that's been I know it's always been a challenge in the city, but you know, it just feels like where are the new units being created in the city.
It's rent has to be at most around three thousand for a two bedroom apartment for a family of four.
Find that like past the Pine barrens in New Jersey.
Exactly over the weekend, there was a transaction in Washington where they're going to take an office building on K Street and I guess they're going to make it residential.
What do you think the cheapest place in it is going to be one and a half million dollars. I mean, I just don't know. This is an urgent issue to all of you across the nation. Next.
Yes, Okay, so we were talking last week when we ended off ready about the dollar fifty hot dog combo at Costco. So another draw is also the rotisserie chicken. It's only five bucks. But also we talked about the gold bars, and.
I don't get that you can actually buy that at Cosco.
You can buy it at Costco. Sometimes they're usually sold out. You have to go online sometimes and you have to try and get in before every other people do. But the Wall Street Journal is saying that the problem is that a lot of people aren't thinking about the taxes on gold when you sell it, so a lot of people are hit the whole buying.
I know, Lisa, you can muscle a bar of gold out of the Doorsco.
I can't.
But with those biceps you can, Okay, but Lia triceps, I should say, but.
Lisa, what is the gold bar?
Is it like something you wear in a bracelet, like you know, you got your kids and your dogs the bracelet, the bars that little mini bars, Yes, they look like.
How much is each buck?
I think they were around a thousand dollars or so.
I remember, then you go after that, you go the hot dog right then kick.
The bargain hot dog. But people are buying it up. But they're saying that people are.
Thinking about have you seen a line at Costco to buy gold bars?
I personally haven't seen them. That's why I'm having a.
Problem with the start.
That's what we're doing that this weekend, we're going to the Costco.
Road trip yeap not to search for him, but I can't find them. Okay, So we've been talking about Netflix, right, biggest competition streaming services, but actually Spotify has the most loyal fans. So you're comparing, you know, music streaming with video streaming. But this was an interesting take from Lucas Shaw. He said there are two reasons for it. He had a good newsletter on this. He said, because audio streaming services have this upper hand because Spotify takes care of the subscribers the way Netflix can. Because Spotify has unlimited you know, they will have every song that you want, whereas Netflix has, you know, a show that you want and then you cancel it.
So here's Lucashaw's note here from just a couple of days ago. Good afternoon from Chicago, where I'm at a bachelor party for an old friend. I would be back in New York the week of June tenth for a couple of events around the Tribeca Film Festival.
That's how he goes to his people.
But we hope to get Lucason live in the studio.
I'm not sure next week.
You know. My basic take on this is Title and Cobas out of Paris are much better sounding, like shockingly better sounding.
My kids won't leave Spotify. I'm paying like six Spotify. That bill has one.
It's a big drawl Pandora and I get called.
And is there anybody here in the studio has a Spotify count?
No, they don't pay artists.
You know, where do you want to begin? Right?
I rolled Title and I just wish Apple would buy Title and make it big. Title is great. I'm editorial license. It's my folks spot for the morning.
Next and this is the last one. The great debate on phone etiquette. Okay, it's becoming a fight with family members, co workers, spouse's friends. Is it okay to call someone first without texting them first, to let them know that you're going to call them?
Right? See?
This is my kids, And I don't take any smack from these. When I call you, you pick up the phone.
I mean, I don't have.
To pre arrange you know, a call to your kids have the little pink princess phone on the rich kids.
But I mean, like they don't pick up when I call you. You everything to me what I get the phone And.
Some people think it's rude, but it works.
I text them my phone number and some people I say, as you can, and others I just text it because they know.
I don't want to be rude and bother them. Call me when you can't.
See you're you know, really I face exactly. He's like, whoa, that's.
That's a great question. Is it okay to call someone first without giving them text warning. I didn't even know that was a thing, but now you're right.
But it's becoming a workplace thing too, because you know, sometimes people just let me just call, you know, the Boston tell them this. No, some people are saying you should text them first, see if it's okay to call now, you know, and they're saying, it's wasting time back and forth. I can't talk to you right now, so just text me.
Most of the time you picked up a phone call that you didn't know who the caller.
Was, Oh, I don't know.
Never do that and they're like, hello, Hello, there's and they're shocked to find out it's like a spam, you know, robo call or somebody trying to sell something.
But it's it's a generational thing because the Wall Street Journal is saying that the people who who who grew up with landlines, those are the ones who say it's okay. And the people who have been texting since high school say no, you need to text me first and let me know that you're calling. So that's a divide.
Yeah, yes it is.
I thought we were doing.
We're going Hot Dog Fair.
That is Lisa Matteo with the newspaper.
This is the Bloomberg Saveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.