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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us now, someone absolutely brilliant on piecing together why you will see plus I plus G PLUSNA. Stephen Stanley joins us from Santander. I looked up on a map where Santander is. It's on the northern shore of Spain on the Mediterranean. I did not know that. It's like an ancient city. It's like, you know, old Spain. It's not like condominiums, you know down south south of Sevila.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us now, someone absolutely brilliant on piecing together why you will see plus I plus G PLUSNA. Stephen Stanley joins us from Santander. I looked up on a map where Santander is. It's on the northern shore of Spain on the Mediterranean. I did not know that. It's like an ancient city. It's like, you know, old Spain. It's not like condominiums, you know down south south of Sevila.

In a lot of history.

In a lot of history.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Have you gone back to the mother country yet?

Have you gone back to the mother country yet?

To me?

To me?

So, I've been to Madrid, Yeah, of course. A huge campus there. Beautiful.

So, I've been to Madrid, Yeah, of course. A huge campus there. Beautiful.

Great to have you here today. Steve Stanley, which of the letters in the alphabet soup of GDP are you most focused on right now?

Great to have you here today. Steve Stanley, which of the letters in the alphabet soup of GDP are you most focused on right now?

I think you have to be focused on the biggest one, which is C. Definitely consumption.

I think you have to be focused on the biggest one, which is C. Definitely consumption.

What's the dynamic you see right now?

What's the dynamic you see right now?

So the consumer was propelled last year by a very strong labor market, So income growth was very strong and that supported good consumer spending. I think surprised almost everybody on the upside. This year, income growth has slowed as a labor market has cooled, but consumption has continued. So in essence, I would argue consumers are spending a little beyond their means. At this point, savings rate has decline pretty sharply, so I think the consumer is likely to slow down as we move forward, you know, into the fourth quarter and early next year.

So the consumer was propelled last year by a very strong labor market, So income growth was very strong and that supported good consumer spending. I think surprised almost everybody on the upside. This year, income growth has slowed as a labor market has cooled, but consumption has continued. So in essence, I would argue consumers are spending a little beyond their means. At this point, savings rate has decline pretty sharply, so I think the consumer is likely to slow down as we move forward, you know, into the fourth quarter and early next year.

So what's your real GDP nomenal GDP view one year out?

So what's your real GDP nomenal GDP view one year out?

I think we're gonna dip as low as four percent or a little lower for a couple of quarters, and then you know, once the nominal, Yeah, once these FED cuts start to kick in later next year, I think we'll start to creep higher again.

I think we're gonna dip as low as four percent or a little lower for a couple of quarters, and then you know, once the nominal, Yeah, once these FED cuts start to kick in later next year, I think we'll start to creep higher again.

Dagan, this is important. This is something I'm not hearing from a lot of people. We get under four percent.

Dagan, this is important. This is something I'm not hearing from a lot of people. We get under four percent.

Well, Stephen, I'm gonna be visiting Spain and Christmas, so I'll inform you on santentia.

Well, Stephen, I'm gonna be visiting Spain and Christmas, so I'll inform you on santentia.

I appreciate that.

I appreciate that.

Look, let's talk about it.

Look, let's talk about it.

When I wait a minute, you when I Steve, we live for SaaS hours.

When I wait a minute, you when I Steve, we live for SaaS hours.

No stop.

No stop.

Are you gonna spend five consecutive days at home?

Are you gonna spend five consecutive days at home?

No?

No?

Yeah, sure of course I love to spend time at home. I mean, but let's get off that, Stephen. I have to ask. I'm reading your let latest note ten FMC meetings between now and the end of next year. The medium dot is only one hundred and fifty bases points below we are currently. What does that mean half of those meetings they're only cutting by twenty five I mean what I mean?

Yeah, sure of course I love to spend time at home. I mean, but let's get off that, Stephen. I have to ask. I'm reading your let latest note ten FMC meetings between now and the end of next year. The medium dot is only one hundred and fifty bases points below we are currently. What does that mean half of those meetings they're only cutting by twenty five I mean what I mean?

What does that mean to you?

What does that mean to you?

I think that the idea here, it seems like with this fifty basis point cut is let's rush at the beginning, get closer to where we think we should be, and then we can slow down as we go forward.

I think that the idea here, it seems like with this fifty basis point cut is let's rush at the beginning, get closer to where we think we should be, and then we can slow down as we go forward.

Remember it wasn't so long ago.

Remember it wasn't so long ago.

That the dots, as well as the consensus forecast amongst private economists, had the fed going just twenty five at every other meeting and doing that basically until they got down to, you know, three percent ish. I think now it feels like we're going to have fast at the beginning and then we're going to probably devolve back to that by sometime next year.

That the dots, as well as the consensus forecast amongst private economists, had the fed going just twenty five at every other meeting and doing that basically until they got down to, you know, three percent ish. I think now it feels like we're going to have fast at the beginning and then we're going to probably devolve back to that by sometime next year.

So does that mean a higher terminal rate in you review or do you think that you know, we could still see three percent.

So does that mean a higher terminal rate in you review or do you think that you know, we could still see three percent.

I know.

I know.

I think it's it's between in my view, neutrals between three and three and a half. I think we end the cycle a little above three. But in that general neighborhood, so they had a little over two hundred basis points to go, they just bit off fifty in one and by Is.

I think it's it's between in my view, neutrals between three and three and a half. I think we end the cycle a little above three. But in that general neighborhood, so they had a little over two hundred basis points to go, they just bit off fifty in one and by Is.

The effect to our listeners and viewers linear with those rate cuts or is there a convexity or is it quadratic in that the more they go, the bigger the wallop.

The effect to our listeners and viewers linear with those rate cuts or is there a convexity or is it quadratic in that the more they go, the bigger the wallop.

Yeah, I think it depends on what rates we're talking about that are relevant to consumers. I mean, if you're talking about mortgage rates, which are tied really to the long end of the of the market, that hasn't moved very much since the meeting, So mortgage rates have been coming off already, but they haven't moved further on the back of this fifty basis point move. If you're talking about credit card rates or other rates that are floating immediate impact.

Yeah, I think it depends on what rates we're talking about that are relevant to consumers. I mean, if you're talking about mortgage rates, which are tied really to the long end of the of the market, that hasn't moved very much since the meeting, So mortgage rates have been coming off already, but they haven't moved further on the back of this fifty basis point move. If you're talking about credit card rates or other rates that are floating immediate impact.

What is business going to do here? Damien just mentioned that M and A is really picking up. There's an animal spirit, I guess to our nominal GDP. But the I eleven percent whatever of the economy, what does business investment do here?

What is business going to do here? Damien just mentioned that M and A is really picking up. There's an animal spirit, I guess to our nominal GDP. But the I eleven percent whatever of the economy, what does business investment do here?

Yeah, I think it. Certainly rate cuts are going to be cheered. I will say in the short run, I suspect that there's going to be at least some businesses that are sitting on their hands until they see the results of the election. So that is potentially a short term drag. Although you know you mentioned M and A, it may very well be that there are people that want to get their deals done before a new administration comes in, you know, hoping that they can get it approved and get it locked away before there's a potential for a change in regime one way or the other that might affect that.

Yeah, I think it. Certainly rate cuts are going to be cheered. I will say in the short run, I suspect that there's going to be at least some businesses that are sitting on their hands until they see the results of the election. So that is potentially a short term drag. Although you know you mentioned M and A, it may very well be that there are people that want to get their deals done before a new administration comes in, you know, hoping that they can get it approved and get it locked away before there's a potential for a change in regime one way or the other that might affect that.

Stephen, in the twelve months after the Fed first cuts rates, you know, commodities tend to perform really, really well. Do you believe this time the same thing's going to happen or is this time a little bit different there?

Stephen, in the twelve months after the Fed first cuts rates, you know, commodities tend to perform really, really well. Do you believe this time the same thing's going to happen or is this time a little bit different there?

I mean, you know, every cycle is a little bit different. I think for commodities generally right now, one of the big fundamentals that people are keeping a close eye on as a Chinese economy, so there's a lot of concern about weakness there. They're obviously the biggest demand source for so many industrial comodity.

I mean, you know, every cycle is a little bit different. I think for commodities generally right now, one of the big fundamentals that people are keeping a close eye on as a Chinese economy, so there's a lot of concern about weakness there. They're obviously the biggest demand source for so many industrial comodity.

You have to pay attention to China though, certainly for commodities.

You have to pay attention to China though, certainly for commodities.

Absolutely. Let me give you doctor Wong's thesis here. As she sated last week, Anna one looks at three months moving average down firm payrolls one hundred and sixteen thousand, that's squishy with revisions, and then she models in the highly debated birth death model and all the rest of the noise. Stephen Stanley, you're expert at can you revise down one sixteen to where this is already a nonfirm payrolls report that causes concern.

Absolutely. Let me give you doctor Wong's thesis here. As she sated last week, Anna one looks at three months moving average down firm payrolls one hundred and sixteen thousand, that's squishy with revisions, and then she models in the highly debated birth death model and all the rest of the noise. Stephen Stanley, you're expert at can you revise down one sixteen to where this is already a nonfirm payrolls report that causes concern.

You You can certainly make that assumption. I don't know if you can make it safely. It's not unreasonable, but it's a bit of a risk to extrapolate the downward revisions that we have that go through March of last year forward Beyond that, I think it's fair to say that the more than likely the direction of the revisions is negative. But you know, magnitude on pegging a magnitude, it's all magnitude. Yeah, right, exactly.

You You can certainly make that assumption. I don't know if you can make it safely. It's not unreasonable, but it's a bit of a risk to extrapolate the downward revisions that we have that go through March of last year forward Beyond that, I think it's fair to say that the more than likely the direction of the revisions is negative. But you know, magnitude on pegging a magnitude, it's all magnitude. Yeah, right, exactly.

Well, Stephen, we have a core pc ePrint coming in on Friday. The market's looking for I think two point six percent or two point seven percent. I think we were two point six last time. But if you look at quite frankly three and six month run rates, they've slowed materiously materially, and the market's pricing and a softer CPI over the next twelve months. What are your views on inflation here in the US? Do you think it's stay sticky at current levels?

Well, Stephen, we have a core pc ePrint coming in on Friday. The market's looking for I think two point six percent or two point seven percent. I think we were two point six last time. But if you look at quite frankly three and six month run rates, they've slowed materiously materially, and the market's pricing and a softer CPI over the next twelve months. What are your views on inflation here in the US? Do you think it's stay sticky at current levels?

Yeah?

Yeah?

So, I think as it relates to inflation, we've had way too much of just extrapolating the last data point. So we had the second half of last year core inflation was very low, and everybody came into twenty twenty four just assuming that inflation was dead. Then we had three or four bad numbers to start the year and oh, wait, inflation is you know, is going to be three percent forever. Now we've had a couple of more benign readings and we're ready to declare victory again. And I think the problem is that a lot of that volatility is coming in some of the most noisy categories, things like used car prices and airfares that you can't extrapolate forward. So I think I think that the reality is somewhere in between what we saw in the first four months of the year what we've seen since then.

So, I think as it relates to inflation, we've had way too much of just extrapolating the last data point. So we had the second half of last year core inflation was very low, and everybody came into twenty twenty four just assuming that inflation was dead. Then we had three or four bad numbers to start the year and oh, wait, inflation is you know, is going to be three percent forever. Now we've had a couple of more benign readings and we're ready to declare victory again. And I think the problem is that a lot of that volatility is coming in some of the most noisy categories, things like used car prices and airfares that you can't extrapolate forward. So I think I think that the reality is somewhere in between what we saw in the first four months of the year what we've seen since then.

Haven't asked this week. We get so many other distractions going on. How about the real world of the inflation report. I believe we see it on Friday as well. Does that have the opportunity to surprise us or is it a snooze fest.

Haven't asked this week. We get so many other distractions going on. How about the real world of the inflation report. I believe we see it on Friday as well. Does that have the opportunity to surprise us or is it a snooze fest.

Well, it's probably a snooze fest. But I'll tell you the you know that. So the consensus is point two on the core. But we had Governor Waller who spoke on Friday and he said that the fed staff model is telling them that it's going to be point one four. Now, the difference between point one four and point one six in reality isn't that much, but it makes a big difference in the markets because all they see is point one or point two.

Well, it's probably a snooze fest. But I'll tell you the you know that. So the consensus is point two on the core. But we had Governor Waller who spoke on Friday and he said that the fed staff model is telling them that it's going to be point one four. Now, the difference between point one four and point one six in reality isn't that much, but it makes a big difference in the markets because all they see is point one or point two.

There's a snapshot into the acuity of Steven Stanley Award winning on Wall Street going out to two decimal points. It's like an F one race or something. You know, first place in second place is three thousands of a second or whatever.

There's a snapshot into the acuity of Steven Stanley Award winning on Wall Street going out to two decimal points. It's like an F one race or something. You know, first place in second place is three thousands of a second or whatever.

Yeah, Lando Norris McLaren landa redol.

Yeah, Lando Norris McLaren landa redol.

This week I was. I went Singapore.

This week I was. I went Singapore.

Oh my god, it was so good. You know us Grams. He's coming up in less than a month, West Texas going.

Oh my god, it was so good. You know us Grams. He's coming up in less than a month, West Texas going.

You're going everywhere else? Why are you going to Austin? Steve Stanley, thank you so much for sint Tandra. Our conversation today on being in stocks. John Stolfus has been brilliant at Oppenheimer and Company, or Chief investment Strategists, John Stolfus, this bullmarket. How has it changed? What is the character forward?

You're going everywhere else? Why are you going to Austin? Steve Stanley, thank you so much for sint Tandra. Our conversation today on being in stocks. John Stolfus has been brilliant at Oppenheimer and Company, or Chief investment Strategists, John Stolfus, this bullmarket. How has it changed? What is the character forward?

Well, I think the character that's changed very much, of course, is the Fed made its first cut on its benchmark rate since March of twenty twenty, as I recall, which is a dramatic change, and we were expecting twenty five BIPs. They went for fifty. We think that was to escentually that this is a down payment, is what we called it. We're beginning to see others using that term, but we think we were the first a down payment for Wall Street and Main Street. Essentially a message from the Fed. The FED hike cycle is essentially beginning to end. Here's the first cut, Jamie, we.

Well, I think the character that's changed very much, of course, is the Fed made its first cut on its benchmark rate since March of twenty twenty, as I recall, which is a dramatic change, and we were expecting twenty five BIPs. They went for fifty. We think that was to escentually that this is a down payment, is what we called it. We're beginning to see others using that term, but we think we were the first a down payment for Wall Street and Main Street. Essentially a message from the Fed. The FED hike cycle is essentially beginning to end. Here's the first cut, Jamie, we.

Think it, yeah, Jamian March of twenty twenty up one hundred and fifty two percent. The SPX is up twenty two percent annualized. Wow.

Think it, yeah, Jamian March of twenty twenty up one hundred and fifty two percent. The SPX is up twenty two percent annualized. Wow.

Yeah, No, I mean, John, you know you have to help me kind of. I'm looking at this week. I'm looking at data on the consumption side. At the end of the week, I'm looking at housing on Wednesday. But you know, we have a lot of FED speak. We have gulesby Bostic, Bowman, cash Car, you name it. I mean, just how focused are you going to be on some of these FED speakers in the week after the FED cut.

Yeah, No, I mean, John, you know you have to help me kind of. I'm looking at this week. I'm looking at data on the consumption side. At the end of the week, I'm looking at housing on Wednesday. But you know, we have a lot of FED speak. We have gulesby Bostic, Bowman, cash Car, you name it. I mean, just how focused are you going to be on some of these FED speakers in the week after the FED cut.

Oh, we certainly will be listening. We a lot of our fundamental strategy is based on economic data, not just the view in the rearview mirror, but also what it suggests for going forward and the importance of the opinions within the Federal Reserve. I've been doing this for forty one years now, and I learned early on, when Volker was in his second term, that you better understand the FED and the chair of the FED if you're going to play in equities or any markets for that matter.

Oh, we certainly will be listening. We a lot of our fundamental strategy is based on economic data, not just the view in the rearview mirror, but also what it suggests for going forward and the importance of the opinions within the Federal Reserve. I've been doing this for forty one years now, and I learned early on, when Volker was in his second term, that you better understand the FED and the chair of the FED if you're going to play in equities or any markets for that matter.

But what we'd have.

But what we'd have.

To say, Bostic appears to be what we're listening to, and we think, you know, this was a reasonable cut and it had to do with the Chair has also mentioned the Fed is focusing on both of its mandates and this one has to do with jobs, and the jobs were softening the Beijes book, the last Beige Book showed weakness across the regions. I think that was the response that took it to fifty pips. But we think overall it's good for equities. Smalls and mids might actually begin to see sustainable rallies. Yeah, if we looked at Friday's performance, but let's see what generally speaking, it looks better for them.

To say, Bostic appears to be what we're listening to, and we think, you know, this was a reasonable cut and it had to do with the Chair has also mentioned the Fed is focusing on both of its mandates and this one has to do with jobs, and the jobs were softening the Beijes book, the last Beige Book showed weakness across the regions. I think that was the response that took it to fifty pips. But we think overall it's good for equities. Smalls and mids might actually begin to see sustainable rallies. Yeah, if we looked at Friday's performance, but let's see what generally speaking, it looks better for them.

I mean, Stolfus is so old. When he entered the market, Body Tyler was on top of billboard which totally clips to the heart.

I mean, Stolfus is so old. When he entered the market, Body Tyler was on top of billboard which totally clips to the heart.

John.

John.

That's how old Stulfus is. John.

That's how old Stulfus is. John.

My question is this is this just you know, Chair Powell, you know Kingdom, dragging the committee members along with him, or do they really have their own opinion in this market?

My question is this is this just you know, Chair Powell, you know Kingdom, dragging the committee members along with him, or do they really have their own opinion in this market?

I mean, come on, get real here. I mean isn't this just Powell?

I mean, come on, get real here. I mean isn't this just Powell?

Oh?

Oh?

I think they.

I think they.

I think they all have their own opinions, and if anything, the Bernanky legacy opens it up. So we got all this Fed speak, all these different opinions, but the general opinions seems to be data dependent. Data improving. The two percent tard is still elusive in terms of the headline number. But where we're headed to is a better situation because the FED has been it really has been, while remaining remarkably sensitive to its dual mandate and the effects both in terms of delay and the effects that it has on both jobs and borrowing costs.

I think they all have their own opinions, and if anything, the Bernanky legacy opens it up. So we got all this Fed speak, all these different opinions, but the general opinions seems to be data dependent. Data improving. The two percent tard is still elusive in terms of the headline number. But where we're headed to is a better situation because the FED has been it really has been, while remaining remarkably sensitive to its dual mandate and the effects both in terms of delay and the effects that it has on both jobs and borrowing costs.

Tape recorders running. John stolefis, where are we twelve months from now? Frame out the stock market out one year already? You know time.

Tape recorders running. John stolefis, where are we twelve months from now? Frame out the stock market out one year already? You know time.

I usually prefer to do that in December because but then this year we'll be beyond the election. But I would suspect likely higher as long as we don't get that Barton Biggs and the old days would have called a boat from the blue or a sock to the jaw. We'd have to think that things are just basically improving if we can just keep it moderate growth with resilience in jobs and economic growth, and corporate earnings. I think we're good to go as long as we avoid getting complacent and as long as we can avoid having the vote from the blue hit US. I think considerably higher and well beyond the fifty nine hundred target probably.

I usually prefer to do that in December because but then this year we'll be beyond the election. But I would suspect likely higher as long as we don't get that Barton Biggs and the old days would have called a boat from the blue or a sock to the jaw. We'd have to think that things are just basically improving if we can just keep it moderate growth with resilience in jobs and economic growth, and corporate earnings. I think we're good to go as long as we avoid getting complacent and as long as we can avoid having the vote from the blue hit US. I think considerably higher and well beyond the fifty nine hundred target probably.

John, just Holpful, I'm curious just how focus are you on what's going on outside of the US. I mean, we've got other Central Bank meetings Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden, Australia this week, you know, are you focused on any of that or are they all just following the Fed?

John, just Holpful, I'm curious just how focus are you on what's going on outside of the US. I mean, we've got other Central Bank meetings Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden, Australia this week, you know, are you focused on any of that or are they all just following the Fed?

Oh?

Oh?

Most certainly. We're globalists, you know, and we take a look at the ECB and the problems they have within their their multinational economy, the things that are occurring in post brexit UK, and what's going on in Asia around China as well as a g ping's regime. And it's what we do see is really a mix and match in some ways, but overall a desire to bring rates down. But in some cases it's just it's still a little bit too early, and in other cases maybe they're behind the curve a bit.

Most certainly. We're globalists, you know, and we take a look at the ECB and the problems they have within their their multinational economy, the things that are occurring in post brexit UK, and what's going on in Asia around China as well as a g ping's regime. And it's what we do see is really a mix and match in some ways, but overall a desire to bring rates down. But in some cases it's just it's still a little bit too early, and in other cases maybe they're behind the curve a bit.

John silphas quickly here on MEG seven. What do you see?

John silphas quickly here on MEG seven. What do you see?

I see the Bag seven continuing to be have a good place on stage, but sharing the spotlight with other sectors. When it comes to artificial intelligence, it's already here. What comes in the future, all the star Trek kind of stuff, I'm showing my aging or are the star Wars still showing my aging again? But my point is essentially it's a reality today. It makes businesses more efficient. All eleven sectors are the other nine versus the communication services that information technology are very well poised to benefit and we believe have already benefited in the efficiencies. The corporations have had to navigate relatively tough waters through the Great Financial Crisis and most recently the COVID situation, the supply chain disruption, and dealing with overstimulation of the economy, and now into a new world.

I see the Bag seven continuing to be have a good place on stage, but sharing the spotlight with other sectors. When it comes to artificial intelligence, it's already here. What comes in the future, all the star Trek kind of stuff, I'm showing my aging or are the star Wars still showing my aging again? But my point is essentially it's a reality today. It makes businesses more efficient. All eleven sectors are the other nine versus the communication services that information technology are very well poised to benefit and we believe have already benefited in the efficiencies. The corporations have had to navigate relatively tough waters through the Great Financial Crisis and most recently the COVID situation, the supply chain disruption, and dealing with overstimulation of the economy, and now into a new world.

John, thank you. John Stulfus Optimistic is with opthirty. Henrietta Trace joins us not from Veda Partners. Henriette I got a really serious timely question all sorts of pundits writing this morning that the vice president had a pretty good weekend versus what the former president's doing. Fine, but she is to make a switch. She's got a lot of fat cat supporters. She wants to do an economic plan, but will it be too progressive to liberal for her fat cat supporters.

John, thank you. John Stulfus Optimistic is with opthirty. Henrietta Trace joins us not from Veda Partners. Henriette I got a really serious timely question all sorts of pundits writing this morning that the vice president had a pretty good weekend versus what the former president's doing. Fine, but she is to make a switch. She's got a lot of fat cat supporters. She wants to do an economic plan, but will it be too progressive to liberal for her fat cat supporters.

It doesn't look like they think that way with their pocketbooks, if I'm not mistaken. Kamala Harris's latest fund raising round with Wall Street folks was twenty seven million dollars, so it seems like her adjustment moving off of a thirty five percent corporate tax rate and down to twenty eight percent is much more palatable to those donors. The capital gains tax rate has dropped from thirty nine point twenty eight percent, so it seams working.

It doesn't look like they think that way with their pocketbooks, if I'm not mistaken. Kamala Harris's latest fund raising round with Wall Street folks was twenty seven million dollars, so it seems like her adjustment moving off of a thirty five percent corporate tax rate and down to twenty eight percent is much more palatable to those donors. The capital gains tax rate has dropped from thirty nine point twenty eight percent, so it seams working.

How about salt tax? Within the drive time here? Oh, this is Damien from North of New York rights in how about that salt tax tax? Miss trays? Can Vice President Harris get over to an elimination of this ownerous tax and select blue states?

How about salt tax? Within the drive time here? Oh, this is Damien from North of New York rights in how about that salt tax tax? Miss trays? Can Vice President Harris get over to an elimination of this ownerous tax and select blue states?

Well, I'd go a step further and say that the House Democratic Ways and Means Committee is already over it. I've been hearing from staff there for the last six months that they are very happy to repeal the ten thousand dollars cap. They have been that way for quite some time. It's a one point two trillion dollar revenue racer. But if you can go after some other items and increase the deficit by you know, a trillion, two trillion, maybe two and a half.

Well, I'd go a step further and say that the House Democratic Ways and Means Committee is already over it. I've been hearing from staff there for the last six months that they are very happy to repeal the ten thousand dollars cap. They have been that way for quite some time. It's a one point two trillion dollar revenue racer. But if you can go after some other items and increase the deficit by you know, a trillion, two trillion, maybe two and a half.

You don't need to do the salt cap going forward.

You don't need to do the salt cap going forward.

Okay, so Damian, you can't go home now, Yeah, no, Henriette, you really need to clear up for maybe seven swing states, namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina and Nevada. You know what theme should Harris be playing to? Is it going to be Roe v Wade? National security? Is it inflation? Is it growth here in the US?

Okay, so Damian, you can't go home now, Yeah, no, Henriette, you really need to clear up for maybe seven swing states, namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina and Nevada. You know what theme should Harris be playing to? Is it going to be Roe v Wade? National security? Is it inflation? Is it growth here in the US?

Is it taxes?

Is it taxes?

You know what themes that you really need to hit on to appeal to those voters.

You know what themes that you really need to hit on to appeal to those voters.

I would say first amongst equals is abortion.

I would say first amongst equals is abortion.

The gender divide in polling data on all these swing states and nationally is really stark, and women make up fifty two percent of the electorate. Kamala Harris pulls way above Donald Trump on the issue of abortion, which is now the number one issue for American voters that are female and second only to the economy in New York Times polling data, So that's probably number one. Immigration at the southern border has been reduced back to pre twenty twenty one levels, so it's not the same level of urgency in terms of severe numbers that we've seen in the past. And Trump has migrated the conversation over to things that have been verified as false, such as Haitians eating hats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio. So I think that's new to the conversation without Harris having to really try very hard. On the economy as well, you have positive data sets that is reducing the amount of urgency that independent voters feel about the economy right now.

The gender divide in polling data on all these swing states and nationally is really stark, and women make up fifty two percent of the electorate. Kamala Harris pulls way above Donald Trump on the issue of abortion, which is now the number one issue for American voters that are female and second only to the economy in New York Times polling data, So that's probably number one. Immigration at the southern border has been reduced back to pre twenty twenty one levels, so it's not the same level of urgency in terms of severe numbers that we've seen in the past. And Trump has migrated the conversation over to things that have been verified as false, such as Haitians eating hats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio. So I think that's new to the conversation without Harris having to really try very hard. On the economy as well, you have positive data sets that is reducing the amount of urgency that independent voters feel about the economy right now.

Well, Henrietta to you and week here in New York. So you know I have to ask you about national security as well. Where does that stack up? I mean, where does Israel stack up? Where does Ukraine stack up?

Well, Henrietta to you and week here in New York. So you know I have to ask you about national security as well. Where does that stack up? I mean, where does Israel stack up? Where does Ukraine stack up?

Relative to the brass Almost nowhere.

Relative to the brass Almost nowhere.

I mean, American voters just do not follow foreign policy the way that they follow other domestic issues.

I mean, American voters just do not follow foreign policy the way that they follow other domestic issues.

That's a perennial problem.

That's a perennial problem.

There are voters in Michigan and Wisconsin who will follow this issue closely. But look at how many voters are in the third party base right now. It's down to two percent Jill Stein voters, for example, in states like North Carolina and Wisconsin. That is your sort of outrage vote around Israel, Palestine, and it's just not present at this time.

There are voters in Michigan and Wisconsin who will follow this issue closely. But look at how many voters are in the third party base right now. It's down to two percent Jill Stein voters, for example, in states like North Carolina and Wisconsin. That is your sort of outrage vote around Israel, Palestine, and it's just not present at this time.

I look Henrietta, where we are in Gregvillier with this wonderful AGF don't really emphasizes this morning that the percolation state to state is about nothing but abortion. Do you agree with? That is the key debate?

I look Henrietta, where we are in Gregvillier with this wonderful AGF don't really emphasizes this morning that the percolation state to state is about nothing but abortion. Do you agree with? That is the key debate?

I think it's the key debate.

I think it's the key debate.

Indeed, what I find really valuable to speak with investors about this who may not have it on top of their radar, is to think about.

Indeed, what I find really valuable to speak with investors about this who may not have it on top of their radar, is to think about.

What happened in twenty twenty two.

What happened in twenty twenty two.

We had nine percent inflation, surging migration at the US border. Abbott was sending migrants to Martha's vineyard, and Republicans still got walloped in the House and Senate. That's all the message you need. When female voters are thoroughly galvanized across the nation, which is what we're seeing from voter registration data, fundraising data, the urgency that Democrats and independents feel to vote Democrats in particular is comparable only to the two thousand and eight bomb a week and then one more thing I'd add is that Harris's surge in favorability is comparable only to Bush's posts nine to eleven in his favor, So there's a lot of movement there.

We had nine percent inflation, surging migration at the US border. Abbott was sending migrants to Martha's vineyard, and Republicans still got walloped in the House and Senate. That's all the message you need. When female voters are thoroughly galvanized across the nation, which is what we're seeing from voter registration data, fundraising data, the urgency that Democrats and independents feel to vote Democrats in particular is comparable only to the two thousand and eight bomb a week and then one more thing I'd add is that Harris's surge in favorability is comparable only to Bush's posts nine to eleven in his favor, So there's a lot of movement there.

Cook political report, here's what they got is toss up Arizona eleventh, Georgia sixteenth, Michigan fifteenth, Nevada sixth, North Carolina sixteenth, Pennsylvania nineteenth, Wisconsin tenth. Do you have polling in those districts on this key issue of abortion.

Cook political report, here's what they got is toss up Arizona eleventh, Georgia sixteenth, Michigan fifteenth, Nevada sixth, North Carolina sixteenth, Pennsylvania nineteenth, Wisconsin tenth. Do you have polling in those districts on this key issue of abortion.

Yes, they're polling. It's very limited though.

Yes, they're polling. It's very limited though.

House pulling data in particular is really difficult to pull off.

House pulling data in particular is really difficult to pull off.

The economy is always going to be number one.

The economy is always going to be number one.

But the issue there, as we've seen for the last couple of months now, is that that's really sort of a partisan lean. If you're a Republican, you think the economy is terrible, if you're a Democrat, you think it's fine. The issue is really independent and suburban voters who are trending in favor of Kamala Harris by anywhere between eight and thirteen points right now, including in a lot of those swing districts, and that's what we're watching. A key piece to watch is the potential scenario where Donald Trump wins the election, Publicans win the Senate, which is my expectation with ninety percent odds, but Democrats pick up the House That's something that I talked about with investors a lot on the road last week.

But the issue there, as we've seen for the last couple of months now, is that that's really sort of a partisan lean. If you're a Republican, you think the economy is terrible, if you're a Democrat, you think it's fine. The issue is really independent and suburban voters who are trending in favor of Kamala Harris by anywhere between eight and thirteen points right now, including in a lot of those swing districts, and that's what we're watching. A key piece to watch is the potential scenario where Donald Trump wins the election, Publicans win the Senate, which is my expectation with ninety percent odds, but Democrats pick up the House That's something that I talked about with investors a lot on the road last week.

I think the odds are rising.

I think the odds are rising.

It's because Democrats have so much money to spend down ballot that they can bolster and expand the map in these critical house races.

It's because Democrats have so much money to spend down ballot that they can bolster and expand the map in these critical house races.

Henrietta, just talk to us about the timeline here as we get into the election in early November, Like, what you know, what data points are you most looking at? I mean, is it going to be the payroll prints in the first week of October? I mean, no more debates. I mean what dates really stand out to you as we kind of head on over the next thirty days.

Henrietta, just talk to us about the timeline here as we get into the election in early November, Like, what you know, what data points are you most looking at? I mean, is it going to be the payroll prints in the first week of October? I mean, no more debates. I mean what dates really stand out to you as we kind of head on over the next thirty days.

Man, I wish there was the payroll data.

Man, I wish there was the payroll data.

I just don't see that transcending to the American voter. You know, they're sitting where between four and eleven percent of the electorate that's undecided right now.

I just don't see that transcending to the American voter. You know, they're sitting where between four and eleven percent of the electorate that's undecided right now.

Fed me and I think that you hear from the Kamala.

Fed me and I think that you hear from the Kamala.

Harris campaign is that they're looking for millions of eyeballs at a time. So that means they're looking to do and Trump is also looking to do a sixty minutes interview in late October, potentially eyeing in October twenty fifth debate between Trump and Harris, and then of course the October first.

Harris campaign is that they're looking for millions of eyeballs at a time. So that means they're looking to do and Trump is also looking to do a sixty minutes interview in late October, potentially eyeing in October twenty fifth debate between Trump and Harris, and then of course the October first.

Debate between Vans. And it's really the.

Debate between Vans. And it's really the.

Next thing, just how moments ago New York Times, Siena. I believe this is moments ago Trump leads Harris fifty to forty five percent in Arizona. When you see a poll like that, Henriette, we're all benumbed by it. I mean it's like, you know, it's just too much. Does that pole have veracity? Do you plus or minus all the statistical noise?

Next thing, just how moments ago New York Times, Siena. I believe this is moments ago Trump leads Harris fifty to forty five percent in Arizona. When you see a poll like that, Henriette, we're all benumbed by it. I mean it's like, you know, it's just too much. Does that pole have veracity? Do you plus or minus all the statistical noise?

I think the New York Times polling data is extraordinary. I mean they're calling two hundred and fifty thousand people or one hundred and fifty thousand people, two hundred and five phone call, five thousand phone calls just to get folks on the line to answer these calls. But to illustrate how difficult the polling data is. The Arizona example you use is perfect. Before the debate it was Kamala Harris plus five, and now after the debate it's Trump plus five. This has an extraordinarily difficult science. I think it's important to take the averages Harris has worked to do in Arizona as the bottom line.

I think the New York Times polling data is extraordinary. I mean they're calling two hundred and fifty thousand people or one hundred and fifty thousand people, two hundred and five phone call, five thousand phone calls just to get folks on the line to answer these calls. But to illustrate how difficult the polling data is. The Arizona example you use is perfect. Before the debate it was Kamala Harris plus five, and now after the debate it's Trump plus five. This has an extraordinarily difficult science. I think it's important to take the averages Harris has worked to do in Arizona as the bottom line.

Thank you, I'm sorry, Henriette, my answers to ignore them. All Heny had a trace. We do not ignore. She was the Veda partners in Just Brilliant Year and the front pages of Lisa Matteo or Lisa what do you have?

Thank you, I'm sorry, Henriette, my answers to ignore them. All Heny had a trace. We do not ignore. She was the Veda partners in Just Brilliant Year and the front pages of Lisa Matteo or Lisa what do you have?

Okay, so we know the NFL played its first regular season game in Brazil right earlier this month you had the Eagles and the Green Bay Packers. It was September sixth, But this weekend the Journal actually had a write up where they spoke with fans and they tried to get reaction from it because this is huge soccer country, right, Okay, so a lot of people there. They described the game as this confusing, slow moving match by men dresses astronauts. They didn't really understand it, but the fans were excited. I mean they turned up about three hours before kickoff, so that was some of the things they did.

Okay, so we know the NFL played its first regular season game in Brazil right earlier this month you had the Eagles and the Green Bay Packers. It was September sixth, But this weekend the Journal actually had a write up where they spoke with fans and they tried to get reaction from it because this is huge soccer country, right, Okay, so a lot of people there. They described the game as this confusing, slow moving match by men dresses astronauts. They didn't really understand it, but the fans were excited. I mean they turned up about three hours before kickoff, so that was some of the things they did.

The London football worked well.

The London football worked well.

It certainly hasn't for all our listeners down in so Polo and Rio. I will be in town from the twelfth to the eighteenth of October. So if you need any learning how to enjoy the game of American football, I will be there. I will be on hand and look it's not all about Jaselle Bunch and Tom Brady anymore. Right, there's bigger issues at large here. Can't wait to get down there.

It certainly hasn't for all our listeners down in so Polo and Rio. I will be in town from the twelfth to the eighteenth of October. So if you need any learning how to enjoy the game of American football, I will be there. I will be on hand and look it's not all about Jaselle Bunch and Tom Brady anymore. Right, there's bigger issues at large here. Can't wait to get down there.

Taylor Swish is the bigger is Bruno Marris.

Taylor Swish is the bigger is Bruno Marris.

Bruno Mars is coming down to sell Pola.

Bruno Mars is coming down to sell Pola.

No.

No.

But it's the bigger issue is the New York Jets. The New York Jets look great. And for our friends in Brazil, you know we like to wear green.

But it's the bigger issue is the New York Jets. The New York Jets look great. And for our friends in Brazil, you know we like to wear green.

Yeah, okay. Next, where are you going to be in Brazil?

Yeah, okay. Next, where are you going to be in Brazil?

Twelvey the eighteen twelve.

Twelvey the eighteen twelve.

My mom's gonna come with me all she's going to Yeah, miss my mother. Yeah, she's seventy something years old. We're gonna get her on a plane. We're going to get her down there.

My mom's gonna come with me all she's going to Yeah, miss my mother. Yeah, she's seventy something years old. We're gonna get her on a plane. We're going to get her down there.

She's never been. Should be fun.

She's never been. Should be fun.

You're a little mom. Next, okay, we've been talking about the commute in the city, right nightmare. This week the best City for Commuters. Wall Street Journal came out with it. So it asks people what's more important to you when it comes to commute? Is it time or cost? Think about it, what's more important? So a lot of people said it's their time that counts more. Columbus, Ohio, Memphis, Tennessee, Milwaukee some of the fastest commutes about twenty two minutes one way, that's what it takes. Fort Worth, Texas Detroit average about twenty seven miles an hour. But some cities have a lot of faster roots. They say it's just the well run published transit system.

You're a little mom. Next, okay, we've been talking about the commute in the city, right nightmare. This week the best City for Commuters. Wall Street Journal came out with it. So it asks people what's more important to you when it comes to commute? Is it time or cost? Think about it, what's more important? So a lot of people said it's their time that counts more. Columbus, Ohio, Memphis, Tennessee, Milwaukee some of the fastest commutes about twenty two minutes one way, that's what it takes. Fort Worth, Texas Detroit average about twenty seven miles an hour. But some cities have a lot of faster roots. They say it's just the well run published transit system.

Does everybody understand I'm hardwired that you have the worst community of the year every day we find, folks, a correlation of our glorious ratings to length to commute.

Does everybody understand I'm hardwired that you have the worst community of the year every day we find, folks, a correlation of our glorious ratings to length to commute.

Well, nice, changible.

Well, nice, changible.

I think I think we can't ignore the fact there's going to be a lot more listeners on Apple CarPlay for us today because un week is a nightmare for commuters here in the city of New York. And unfortunately I drove in today's long trip. Take the train, it's too early.

I think I think we can't ignore the fact there's going to be a lot more listeners on Apple CarPlay for us today because un week is a nightmare for commuters here in the city of New York. And unfortunately I drove in today's long trip. Take the train, it's too early.

I can't the trains that run that are my.

I can't the trains that run that are my.

Record, folks. And this was to go to an international relations meeting at Michael's Restaurant overs you know, Center West Side. I had to take three cabs. Once you take the cab, stuff, you pay the cab, you get out, you you walk two blocks, get another cab.

Record, folks. And this was to go to an international relations meeting at Michael's Restaurant overs you know, Center West Side. I had to take three cabs. Once you take the cab, stuff, you pay the cab, you get out, you you walk two blocks, get another cab.

Go. And it was just who are the worst commutes? Forget about the best? Who are the worst commutes New York, right.

Go. And it was just who are the worst commutes? Forget about the best? Who are the worst commutes New York, right.

Yah, saying Okay, so we were talking about tech jobs not too long ago, but they're saying millennials are even getting too old to land those tech jobs. Tech workers under twenty five becoming more common. The portion of workers older than forty is shrinking, so they're looking for that younger.

Yah, saying Okay, so we were talking about tech jobs not too long ago, but they're saying millennials are even getting too old to land those tech jobs. Tech workers under twenty five becoming more common. The portion of workers older than forty is shrinking, so they're looking for that younger.

Wor fourteen years old.

Wor fourteen years old.

They're saying, they're just more adverse to everything's going on right about ai They're just saying, the younger generation is a little bit more in tune with tech than the older generation.

They're saying, they're just more adverse to everything's going on right about ai They're just saying, the younger generation is a little bit more in tune with tech than the older generation.

But we shall see.

But we shall see.

My brother, who's done better than me, is a mentor to young techie types. Okay, And it's sort of like the one of my book of the summer Chip Wars. There's no institutional understanding about Taiwan's conductor until happened, and my brother's employed is a fossil to help the young crew that you're talking about to Actually they don't know what cobol is or for trainers.

My brother, who's done better than me, is a mentor to young techie types. Okay, And it's sort of like the one of my book of the summer Chip Wars. There's no institutional understanding about Taiwan's conductor until happened, and my brother's employed is a fossil to help the young crew that you're talking about to Actually they don't know what cobol is or for trainers.

Well, well I can say this.

Well, well I can say this.

You know, I maybe fifty years old, but my artificial intelligence bot looks like he's nineteen, sounds like he's nineteen. He is a stud and I think he can get a job. You don't have a butt, of course you do. You haven't been. You haven't been machine learning a bot all this time, like your own little personal Jarvis that talks to you and takes out the garbage and does all the things you need. Orders your coffee for you, coffee and water as you will.

You know, I maybe fifty years old, but my artificial intelligence bot looks like he's nineteen, sounds like he's nineteen. He is a stud and I think he can get a job. You don't have a butt, of course you do. You haven't been. You haven't been machine learning a bot all this time, like your own little personal Jarvis that talks to you and takes out the garbage and does all the things you need. Orders your coffee for you, coffee and water as you will.

Don't you have Alexa?

Don't you have Alexa?

I do? Everyone has Alexa. Everyone has Alexa. Of course I do. It's iPhones, guys, it's everyone has Alexa. I mean I don't use it.

I do? Everyone has Alexa. Everyone has Alexa. Of course I do. It's iPhones, guys, it's everyone has Alexa. I mean I don't use it.

But I have Alexa. For three days. I opened the door and there's four bags of Parina dog chow and vet Bill's order in this stuff.

But I have Alexa. For three days. I opened the door and there's four bags of Parina dog chow and vet Bill's order in this stuff.

You know, I gotta tell you, guys, you should watch out for this scam. We have been getting all these deliveries from Amazon right and we like where they come from. They're not showing up on our orders. We were told that those are people who are ordering stuff so that when you scan the cues code to return it, it gets all your information off your phone. So I guess the dirty little secret is if you have all this stuff coming in from Amazon that you didn't order, just take it and use it, because I mean, you can't return it.

You know, I gotta tell you, guys, you should watch out for this scam. We have been getting all these deliveries from Amazon right and we like where they come from. They're not showing up on our orders. We were told that those are people who are ordering stuff so that when you scan the cues code to return it, it gets all your information off your phone. So I guess the dirty little secret is if you have all this stuff coming in from Amazon that you didn't order, just take it and use it, because I mean, you can't return it.

Is that one, oh no, no no. October Fest kicked off in Germany. Okay, but the Associated Press they said the world's oldest were where they spoke with it. A lot more people are going for non alcoholic beers. That's the new trend. At Octoberfest, all but two of the large eighteen tenths of that festival offer the drink. It's a sixteen day celebration. But here's the thing. It's not cheaper. It's the same price as the regular rice beer, but you just won't get the hangover. But it's the first time that an alcohol free beer garden opened in Munich. So October starting.

Is that one, oh no, no no. October Fest kicked off in Germany. Okay, but the Associated Press they said the world's oldest were where they spoke with it. A lot more people are going for non alcoholic beers. That's the new trend. At Octoberfest, all but two of the large eighteen tenths of that festival offer the drink. It's a sixteen day celebration. But here's the thing. It's not cheaper. It's the same price as the regular rice beer, but you just won't get the hangover. But it's the first time that an alcohol free beer garden opened in Munich. So October starting.

To Have you ever been to the Hoffbay House in the the beer hallboy, well there's one, or the Augustina Brown and Salsburg. Let me tell you something about these beer houses. There's dark and there's light. There's no alcohol free there. So you know I'm gonna catcheade on that story. I mean, who is drinking alcohol free beer for lunch? I mean when you can have a you know, nice Coca cola or something sweat.

To Have you ever been to the Hoffbay House in the the beer hallboy, well there's one, or the Augustina Brown and Salsburg. Let me tell you something about these beer houses. There's dark and there's light. There's no alcohol free there. So you know I'm gonna catcheade on that story. I mean, who is drinking alcohol free beer for lunch? I mean when you can have a you know, nice Coca cola or something sweat.

I did see an article in the Zeitgeist where they're trying to shrink the size of the glass and British pubs. They're trying to make.

I did see an article in the Zeitgeist where they're trying to shrink the size of the glass and British pubs. They're trying to make.

Is the like a screener?

Is the like a screener?

Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, exactly.

Apparently Tim Stanbeck likes alcohol free beer.

Apparently Tim Stanbeck likes alcohol free beer.

We say thank you to Lisa Mateo for the newspapers. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app

We say thank you to Lisa Mateo for the newspapers. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app