Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.

Stewart Carser joins us head of US Equity Trading Strategy at City Global Markets. Stewart, you came off the trading desk of the City. What are you traders seeing from their clients these days? What are they buying? What are they selling? The activity look like on your desk.

Stewart Carser joins us head of US Equity Trading Strategy at City Global Markets. Stewart, you came off the trading desk of the City. What are you traders seeing from their clients these days? What are they buying? What are they selling? The activity look like on your desk.

Yeah, I mean if you took a quick look back at the third quarter, what you would see as an investment community that was buying quality stocks but also broadening out their portfolios a bit. So I think people being careful in the type of stocks they own because of you know this rolling recession risk we've been fighting. But you know what we saw in last quarter's earnings was the four ninety three not the mag seven actually generate positive EPs growth. So it's giving you a broader field to play in, but people are still keeping it close to the vest I would say, I know, when.

Yeah, I mean if you took a quick look back at the third quarter, what you would see as an investment community that was buying quality stocks but also broadening out their portfolios a bit. So I think people being careful in the type of stocks they own because of you know this rolling recession risk we've been fighting. But you know what we saw in last quarter's earnings was the four ninety three not the mag seven actually generate positive EPs growth. So it's giving you a broader field to play in, but people are still keeping it close to the vest I would say, I know, when.

Andrew Hollandor's publishes, you throw it right in a waste basket. But on the way you make glance at the cover. If we get a holland Ort set of rate cuts, what does that do to Stewart Kaiser's world?

Andrew Hollandor's publishes, you throw it right in a waste basket. But on the way you make glance at the cover. If we get a holland Ort set of rate cuts, what does that do to Stewart Kaiser's world?

Look at you know, and Andrew on Friday has seventy thousand K jobs, and basically that job's outlook is what's driving the.

Look at you know, and Andrew on Friday has seventy thousand K jobs, and basically that job's outlook is what's driving the.

Loana long number.

Loana long number.

So you know that job's number is what's driving that rate cut assumption. So I think if you're cutting rates because the labor market's decelerating like that, that is bad for equities in our view on a net basis, If we get lucky and the FED is doing pure insure durrance cuts, you're getting one hundred and fifty k jobs, which is where consensus is, and you're getting the Ray cuts, I think that's quite positive for equities. Which is why Friday is just, you know, such an important day, an event for the Market's probably the most important day of the month.

So you know that job's number is what's driving that rate cut assumption. So I think if you're cutting rates because the labor market's decelerating like that, that is bad for equities in our view on a net basis, If we get lucky and the FED is doing pure insure durrance cuts, you're getting one hundred and fifty k jobs, which is where consensus is, and you're getting the Ray cuts, I think that's quite positive for equities. Which is why Friday is just, you know, such an important day, an event for the Market's probably the most important day of the month.

It is coming Friday.

It is coming Friday.

Yeah, So I mean, going into that print, I mean, I can't imagine people on the desk are taking much risk of these days.

Yeah, So I mean, going into that print, I mean, I can't imagine people on the desk are taking much risk of these days.

Yeah, you know, I think what we saw the last month is a lot of event rest trading. So you're trading a day of events, and then between the events, the market's kind of sitting out his hands a little bit to try to digest stuff. So I think what you'll see today is a pretty quiet week in the run up to Friday.

Yeah, you know, I think what we saw the last month is a lot of event rest trading. So you're trading a day of events, and then between the events, the market's kind of sitting out his hands a little bit to try to digest stuff. So I think what you'll see today is a pretty quiet week in the run up to Friday.

I mean, of everyone we talked to, you're the only one that lives the wonderful show industry. You know, it's out of the London desk, Canary Wharf and all that, but I mean you Canary work. You live it. Stuart Kaiser, what was your desk like when China Wants China twice provided various and Sunday stimulus, what was the level of bedlam like?

I mean, of everyone we talked to, you're the only one that lives the wonderful show industry. You know, it's out of the London desk, Canary Wharf and all that, but I mean you Canary work. You live it. Stuart Kaiser, what was your desk like when China Wants China twice provided various and Sunday stimulus, what was the level of bedlam like?

Look, I think initially it was a little bit of we've seen this before, but then when they continue to follow up with it in terms of you know, new announcements, you know, the the what you're having here is very negative sentiments or towards China that's accumulated over a number of years, but a very large package that the Chinese policy makers seem to be signaling they're gonna they're gonna repeat. So I think what you're seeing is effectively, you know, people are getting sort of shocked by the tax.

Look, I think initially it was a little bit of we've seen this before, but then when they continue to follow up with it in terms of you know, new announcements, you know, the the what you're having here is very negative sentiments or towards China that's accumulated over a number of years, but a very large package that the Chinese policy makers seem to be signaling they're gonna they're gonna repeat. So I think what you're seeing is effectively, you know, people are getting sort of shocked by the tax.

Is there profanity on the desk like an industry.

Is there profanity on the desk like an industry.

I would I would say there was some choice words, choice word Okay, So I think if specifically on China, I think you're in a situation here is they they shocked the market, and the question is when you get back from Golden Week, is their follow through or was this window dressing ahead of a big political event. And if there's follow through, then the positioning is not there on China and you could get some people forced into it. So, you know, Marcus performing wealth, We'll have to see what happens after after after this, uh, you know, vacation week for them, and we'll see how much follow through there is.

I would I would say there was some choice words, choice word Okay, So I think if specifically on China, I think you're in a situation here is they they shocked the market, and the question is when you get back from Golden Week, is their follow through or was this window dressing ahead of a big political event. And if there's follow through, then the positioning is not there on China and you could get some people forced into it. So, you know, Marcus performing wealth, We'll have to see what happens after after after this, uh, you know, vacation week for them, and we'll see how much follow through there is.

How about valuation in the marketplace here, we've seen the SMP equal weighted index. Actually I perform a little bit recently, so a little bit of a broadening out in the marketplace. How do you guys think about valuation in this market?

How about valuation in the marketplace here, we've seen the SMP equal weighted index. Actually I perform a little bit recently, so a little bit of a broadening out in the marketplace. How do you guys think about valuation in this market?

Valuations is high, but not obscene, I guess is the way I might put it. You're kind of like upper core tile upper DEAC style, but you're not at MAX levels. Look at the bottom line for US valuation. We view that as potential energy. So if you do get a sell off, there's more room to fall. But you need a catalyst to release potential energy, turn a kinetic, and that catalyst is likely going to be the feder of the jobs market. So it's an issue, but we need something to release it.

Valuations is high, but not obscene, I guess is the way I might put it. You're kind of like upper core tile upper DEAC style, but you're not at MAX levels. Look at the bottom line for US valuation. We view that as potential energy. So if you do get a sell off, there's more room to fall. But you need a catalyst to release potential energy, turn a kinetic, and that catalyst is likely going to be the feder of the jobs market. So it's an issue, but we need something to release it.

I mean, I don't know where it is, but Apple's out near not to a new high. I mean Meg's seven update from Stuart Kaiser.

I mean, I don't know where it is, but Apple's out near not to a new high. I mean Meg's seven update from Stuart Kaiser.

Look, MAX seven I think is still the core holding of most of Vester's tom and that's a large long position that's been built over a number of years. But truth and Advertising last quarter was solid, but you know, not a knockout quarter. So I do think you've got people in this large core position that at this point, earning season is going to be very very important this time around. Then for Nvidia early next year with the introdroduction of the new Chipset's going to be very, very important. So my summary would be it is still a core holding, but people are asking some questions after last earning season.

Look, MAX seven I think is still the core holding of most of Vester's tom and that's a large long position that's been built over a number of years. But truth and Advertising last quarter was solid, but you know, not a knockout quarter. So I do think you've got people in this large core position that at this point, earning season is going to be very very important this time around. Then for Nvidia early next year with the introdroduction of the new Chipset's going to be very, very important. So my summary would be it is still a core holding, but people are asking some questions after last earning season.

WTI crew to oil alow sixty eight dollars a hour.

WTI crew to oil alow sixty eight dollars a hour.

What's the energy call for you, guys?

What's the energy call for you, guys?

Honestly, it's oil to me has been probably one of the more confounding trades over the last twelve to eighteen months. If I wrote you a list of all the catalysts and events that happened, you wouldn't expect oil to be where it is. US is producing a tremendous amount of oil. China's excuse me, rush is probably bleeding some discounting price oil onto the market. So I think it's hard to be particularly bullish the oil price just given a the structural challenges, be the event risk that the market is absorbed, and see the amount of oil that the US is putting out. So for now, I think we're sort of on the sidelines with that, at least from an equity perspective.

Honestly, it's oil to me has been probably one of the more confounding trades over the last twelve to eighteen months. If I wrote you a list of all the catalysts and events that happened, you wouldn't expect oil to be where it is. US is producing a tremendous amount of oil. China's excuse me, rush is probably bleeding some discounting price oil onto the market. So I think it's hard to be particularly bullish the oil price just given a the structural challenges, be the event risk that the market is absorbed, and see the amount of oil that the US is putting out. So for now, I think we're sort of on the sidelines with that, at least from an equity perspective.

Ster Kuser, thank you so much. It was City Group. This is there if you grow up in Arkansas, which is far west of this horrific hellene damage that we've seen you are wedded to the Mississippi River. And if you grow up in Arkansas as a kid and your parents sort of kind of like remember it, but it is seared into the memory of your grandparents. Is the Great Mississippi Flood of nineteen twenty seven, which is where America decided what it would do in disasters. Frenchhill of Arkansas joins us this morning, Frenchhill, We've got to come to the rescue of these people. Are Democrats and Republicans united?

Ster Kuser, thank you so much. It was City Group. This is there if you grow up in Arkansas, which is far west of this horrific hellene damage that we've seen you are wedded to the Mississippi River. And if you grow up in Arkansas as a kid and your parents sort of kind of like remember it, but it is seared into the memory of your grandparents. Is the Great Mississippi Flood of nineteen twenty seven, which is where America decided what it would do in disasters. Frenchhill of Arkansas joins us this morning, Frenchhill, We've got to come to the rescue of these people. Are Democrats and Republicans united?

Well, good morning, Tom, And yes, nineteen twenty seven was the ultimate devastation in the Mississippi Valley. A great book Lanards on the levee of the culture there. So yes, absolutely, And let me point out that Speaker Mike Johnson, in our first version of the Continuing Resolution that included our say back, which limited voting to just American citizens and federal elections. We also had a replenishment of the THEMA bond in that bill. Unfortunately, some of my colleagues did not go along with that Continuing Resolution. So when we get back, I think we'll be confronted with a supplemental appropriation to replenish those FEMA stocks.

Well, good morning, Tom, And yes, nineteen twenty seven was the ultimate devastation in the Mississippi Valley. A great book Lanards on the levee of the culture there. So yes, absolutely, And let me point out that Speaker Mike Johnson, in our first version of the Continuing Resolution that included our say back, which limited voting to just American citizens and federal elections. We also had a replenishment of the THEMA bond in that bill. Unfortunately, some of my colleagues did not go along with that Continuing Resolution. So when we get back, I think we'll be confronted with a supplemental appropriation to replenish those FEMA stocks.

Okay, but French I mean cut to the chase speaker. Trump reniged on North Carolina X number of times ago. I don't know Paul Sweeney had to shovel out his cottage during Hurricane Sandy across fifty states. We don't know where the next disaster is. How do Republicans grow up and do a unified effort for these people devastated.

Okay, but French I mean cut to the chase speaker. Trump reniged on North Carolina X number of times ago. I don't know Paul Sweeney had to shovel out his cottage during Hurricane Sandy across fifty states. We don't know where the next disaster is. How do Republicans grow up and do a unified effort for these people devastated.

I think we will. I'm sure we will have a supplemental appropriation, as I say, to support FEMA, and we'll deal with that as soon as the Congress is back in early November. And I think we should, and that's why I voted four back in September.

I think we will. I'm sure we will have a supplemental appropriation, as I say, to support FEMA, and we'll deal with that as soon as the Congress is back in early November. And I think we should, and that's why I voted four back in September.

So French, when Congress does get back in early November, give us kind of from your perspective what the to do list is for our Congress.

So French, when Congress does get back in early November, give us kind of from your perspective what the to do list is for our Congress.

It's extensive. First, we've got to finish fiscal twenty five spending. The House passed about seventy five percent of federal spending across our House floor. The Senate has passed no bills across the Senate floor. That's the top issue when we get back is settling on spending. We have a cr that runs until the third week in December. Secondly, we have the National Defense Authorization Bill, which has been in conference between the Senate and House. That bill will certainly come to the floor. And then, as Tom noted, the crisis in the southeast from the hurricane, but there's another crisis brewing in farm country, which is the effect that we don't have a renewal of the agriculture programs. Reauthorize those every five years. They're expiring at the end of the year. There's some severe shortages in some of the commodity programs. I think that'll be a property when we get back as well.

It's extensive. First, we've got to finish fiscal twenty five spending. The House passed about seventy five percent of federal spending across our House floor. The Senate has passed no bills across the Senate floor. That's the top issue when we get back is settling on spending. We have a cr that runs until the third week in December. Secondly, we have the National Defense Authorization Bill, which has been in conference between the Senate and House. That bill will certainly come to the floor. And then, as Tom noted, the crisis in the southeast from the hurricane, but there's another crisis brewing in farm country, which is the effect that we don't have a renewal of the agriculture programs. Reauthorize those every five years. They're expiring at the end of the year. There's some severe shortages in some of the commodity programs. I think that'll be a property when we get back as well.

And I guess kind of the most immediate thing here right now, Congressman, is the strike. We're day one of the strike here on the East Coast, and I'm just kind of looking at some maps up on the various TV networks, and it's just, you know, the entire East Coast, wrapping around Florida well into the Gulf Coast here. These ports are shut down, impacting you know, roughly half of the trade coming in and out of this country. What's the view in Washington, d C. Is how this should play out or could play out.

And I guess kind of the most immediate thing here right now, Congressman, is the strike. We're day one of the strike here on the East Coast, and I'm just kind of looking at some maps up on the various TV networks, and it's just, you know, the entire East Coast, wrapping around Florida well into the Gulf Coast here. These ports are shut down, impacting you know, roughly half of the trade coming in and out of this country. What's the view in Washington, d C. Is how this should play out or could play out.

Well, you heard the calls estaments from JP Morgan Chase, You're talking about forty five thousand people, thirty six ports, the entire Gulf and East Coast network of long shoreman. It's my understanding the President has eighty days that he could ask for a cooling off period and intervene in this strike, which comes at a precipitous time, both in the economy, which is soft, where in a situation where we have unprecedented amounts of imports coming into the country for the Christmas holiday season. So I think it's got a dramatic impact on the economy, particularly in the Southeast when you're already battered by the hurricane. So I don't know if the President's going to take that action or not.

Well, you heard the calls estaments from JP Morgan Chase, You're talking about forty five thousand people, thirty six ports, the entire Gulf and East Coast network of long shoreman. It's my understanding the President has eighty days that he could ask for a cooling off period and intervene in this strike, which comes at a precipitous time, both in the economy, which is soft, where in a situation where we have unprecedented amounts of imports coming into the country for the Christmas holiday season. So I think it's got a dramatic impact on the economy, particularly in the Southeast when you're already battered by the hurricane. So I don't know if the President's going to take that action or not.

French Hill, how does the Senator from Ohio recalibrate from the last number of months of a campaign? And I don't know what the polling is. I'm going to assume it's a dead heat. It's not for me to say what the polling is. But how does the Senator from Ohio this evening recalibrate back to the grand old Party of Hill and Lincoln.

French Hill, how does the Senator from Ohio recalibrate from the last number of months of a campaign? And I don't know what the polling is. I'm going to assume it's a dead heat. It's not for me to say what the polling is. But how does the Senator from Ohio this evening recalibrate back to the grand old Party of Hill and Lincoln.

Let's say, to advanced So tonight should remind voters that Harris Walls is the continuation of the Biden administration and the three big issues in this campaign inflation and the impact on our families, the open border and the impact on bentanol, crime in our communities, and potential terror attacks. Those two issues are critical, and I just believe that Senator Vance ought to go back to the issue that Harris and Biden had four years to deal with that and it was decisions that they took as president and Vice president that had made those situations worse. And I think that's where he ought to stick. Stick to the facts, stick to the fact that the Trump Dvance policies could be better than the Harris Waltz policies on border security, national security, the economy, and particularly pushing back on inflation.

Let's say, to advanced So tonight should remind voters that Harris Walls is the continuation of the Biden administration and the three big issues in this campaign inflation and the impact on our families, the open border and the impact on bentanol, crime in our communities, and potential terror attacks. Those two issues are critical, and I just believe that Senator Vance ought to go back to the issue that Harris and Biden had four years to deal with that and it was decisions that they took as president and Vice president that had made those situations worse. And I think that's where he ought to stick. Stick to the facts, stick to the fact that the Trump Dvance policies could be better than the Harris Waltz policies on border security, national security, the economy, and particularly pushing back on inflation.

Look for the coverage tonight in Bloomberg Radio at eight pm Paul.

Look for the coverage tonight in Bloomberg Radio at eight pm Paul.

Bounce the power exactly, Tom Congressman Hill, what do you think. I mean, we get back into session here in November. Most of the experts that we hear from they expect, you know, this is going to be a deadlock government going forward.

Bounce the power exactly, Tom Congressman Hill, what do you think. I mean, we get back into session here in November. Most of the experts that we hear from they expect, you know, this is going to be a deadlock government going forward.

I mean, it's a.

I mean, it's a.

Relatively small chance that either the Republicans will sweep the three branches or the Democrats will sweep the three branches. So most of the odds suggest it's going to be a deadlocked type of government. What can we expect from that type of government over the next several years, do you think, what's your perspective.

Relatively small chance that either the Republicans will sweep the three branches or the Democrats will sweep the three branches. So most of the odds suggest it's going to be a deadlocked type of government. What can we expect from that type of government over the next several years, do you think, what's your perspective.

Well, let's use your hypothetical of tight margins in the Senate and House, and then we don't know the outcome. In November, either President Harris or Trump will face the chronic sustained two trillion dollars per year deficit that has been spawned by decisions made during the pandemic and expiring tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of twenty seventeen, plus obviously grappling with the Congress approving a new target for the debt ceiling on a bipartisan basis, and that expires in January. This new president coming in is going to be confronted with the most severe fiscal situation that I've seen in my my policy days, and I think that will dominate those politics, as you say, in a narrowly divided Congress.

Well, let's use your hypothetical of tight margins in the Senate and House, and then we don't know the outcome. In November, either President Harris or Trump will face the chronic sustained two trillion dollars per year deficit that has been spawned by decisions made during the pandemic and expiring tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of twenty seventeen, plus obviously grappling with the Congress approving a new target for the debt ceiling on a bipartisan basis, and that expires in January. This new president coming in is going to be confronted with the most severe fiscal situation that I've seen in my my policy days, and I think that will dominate those politics, as you say, in a narrowly divided Congress.

Friends show one final question. My major issue with Basl is I hope it's still imported from Italy. You know, for the kitchen, you're looking at a different basle in Basel Switzerland, and what it basically is out of the carnage of two thousand and seven is we've got to load up capital in our banks. You have on very unfrenchhill like language. We are golden plating America's banks.

Friends show one final question. My major issue with Basl is I hope it's still imported from Italy. You know, for the kitchen, you're looking at a different basle in Basel Switzerland, and what it basically is out of the carnage of two thousand and seven is we've got to load up capital in our banks. You have on very unfrenchhill like language. We are golden plating America's banks.

Discuss Oh, Tom Basil is, as you know, a about a forty year trend now and trying to harmonize capital standards between the global banks. And so we're now on Basil three and they call it the BASL three endgame. I didn't like Basil one. This sequel movie is not much better. But our banks are the strongest in the country, in the world. We have the highest capital in the world. Any of us in Congress, and I think in the private markets felt like the Michael Barr Federal Reserve proposal for BASL three in game overdid it it penalized American banks and competitiveness to European banks. Even Marc o'drogy in Europe said the purpose of BASL three was to have capital neutrality but change some of the risk ratings. The Bar proposal increased capital for American banks nearly twenty percent. And that's why I've called on this entire proposal to be reproposed, resubmitted for comment.

Discuss Oh, Tom Basil is, as you know, a about a forty year trend now and trying to harmonize capital standards between the global banks. And so we're now on Basil three and they call it the BASL three endgame. I didn't like Basil one. This sequel movie is not much better. But our banks are the strongest in the country, in the world. We have the highest capital in the world. Any of us in Congress, and I think in the private markets felt like the Michael Barr Federal Reserve proposal for BASL three in game overdid it it penalized American banks and competitiveness to European banks. Even Marc o'drogy in Europe said the purpose of BASL three was to have capital neutrality but change some of the risk ratings. The Bar proposal increased capital for American banks nearly twenty percent. And that's why I've called on this entire proposal to be reproposed, resubmitted for comment.

One final quick one here we got to go cover Tigers baseball. But Friendshill, is just simple. Does Arkansas have the toughest football schedule in America? It's like every week they're playing somebody large.

One final quick one here we got to go cover Tigers baseball. But Friendshill, is just simple. Does Arkansas have the toughest football schedule in America? It's like every week they're playing somebody large.

It's the toughest schedule. We have a great, dynamic team that wins the statistics but loses the games. We got to hold onto the ball and stop fund and fumbling.

It's the toughest schedule. We have a great, dynamic team that wins the statistics but loses the games. We got to hold onto the ball and stop fund and fumbling.

Very good, Coach Hill, Thank you so much. French Schill and Arkansas, Texas A and M last week, Auburn the week before in Paul, Tennessee. I didn't know Tennessee's rank number four.

Very good, Coach Hill, Thank you so much. French Schill and Arkansas, Texas A and M last week, Auburn the week before in Paul, Tennessee. I didn't know Tennessee's rank number four.

I know they're back.

I know they're back.

They're back. It's Canoxville, right yno Canocksville? Okay, Tennessee at Arkansas, French Shill, thank you for those comments, particularly about the debate. This is an honor. First of all, let me say uh Bloomberg Surveillance and we thank Interactive Brokers. Bloomberg surveilans brought you daily by Interactive Brokers and their portfolio analysts consolidate and analyze all your financial accounts on one powerful dashboard. For free. Sign up for a portfolio analyst at I b k R dot com slash free p A. Let me spell that out, I b k R dot com slash f r e e p A free p A. Thank you Interactive Brokers for your coverage. Every professor has cottage Industries. One of the tangential ideas for Julie Norman at UCL London is to cover the Baltimore Orioles for the entire London media. She's on top of that story this morning, but tragically and seriously, she is absolutely definitive on terror in the Middle East. She picked it up early and far too often we're honed to speak with Professor Norman this morning. Professor, there's Bay Route close to the southern border, and then there's lots of Lebanon up to Tartis in north up towards Syria. Is Hesbala in the entirety of Lebanon or just the south.

They're back. It's Canoxville, right yno Canocksville? Okay, Tennessee at Arkansas, French Shill, thank you for those comments, particularly about the debate. This is an honor. First of all, let me say uh Bloomberg Surveillance and we thank Interactive Brokers. Bloomberg surveilans brought you daily by Interactive Brokers and their portfolio analysts consolidate and analyze all your financial accounts on one powerful dashboard. For free. Sign up for a portfolio analyst at I b k R dot com slash free p A. Let me spell that out, I b k R dot com slash f r e e p A free p A. Thank you Interactive Brokers for your coverage. Every professor has cottage Industries. One of the tangential ideas for Julie Norman at UCL London is to cover the Baltimore Orioles for the entire London media. She's on top of that story this morning, but tragically and seriously, she is absolutely definitive on terror in the Middle East. She picked it up early and far too often we're honed to speak with Professor Norman this morning. Professor, there's Bay Route close to the southern border, and then there's lots of Lebanon up to Tartis in north up towards Syria. Is Hesbala in the entirety of Lebanon or just the south.

Yeah, well, good morning, Tom, and I wish we could just talk about the It was a little bit more, but you're right, there's obviously a lot going on in the Middle East these days, and for Hesbala, they're an interesting group and where they're located, their main stronghold and the one that the that Israel focuses on the most is in the southern part of Lebanon, the part that borders with Israel, but they also have another stronghold in the northeast of Lebanon along the Syrian border. So that's one reason why some of Israel's strikes have targeted other parts of the country beyond just that southern that southern tip.

Yeah, well, good morning, Tom, and I wish we could just talk about the It was a little bit more, but you're right, there's obviously a lot going on in the Middle East these days, and for Hesbala, they're an interesting group and where they're located, their main stronghold and the one that the that Israel focuses on the most is in the southern part of Lebanon, the part that borders with Israel, but they also have another stronghold in the northeast of Lebanon along the Syrian border. So that's one reason why some of Israel's strikes have targeted other parts of the country beyond just that southern that southern tip.

What is your beneath the headline data in the sameness going, you know, Telegraph, FT, Bloomberg and all, you know, our wonderful coverage out to tell Aviv? What is the story not being told right now? Professor Norman.

What is your beneath the headline data in the sameness going, you know, Telegraph, FT, Bloomberg and all, you know, our wonderful coverage out to tell Aviv? What is the story not being told right now? Professor Norman.

Yeah, I mean, I would say one thing is that there's been a year of diplomatic efforts to try and prevent what's happening now, and I think that piece has sometimes forgotten that the US, France, numerous actors were trying to broker something that could, you know, prevent this kind of escalation. I would also point out that there's a two thousand and six UN Security Council resolution that set essentially a border in Lebanon that was supposed to have a buffer zone between Israel and Hasbalah that has been violated. So I would say from Israel's perspective, they had tried the diplomatic track and feel this was a necessary move. Obviously, many others disagree with that assessment, but that was very much the thinking in Israel talking to people there this summer.

Yeah, I mean, I would say one thing is that there's been a year of diplomatic efforts to try and prevent what's happening now, and I think that piece has sometimes forgotten that the US, France, numerous actors were trying to broker something that could, you know, prevent this kind of escalation. I would also point out that there's a two thousand and six UN Security Council resolution that set essentially a border in Lebanon that was supposed to have a buffer zone between Israel and Hasbalah that has been violated. So I would say from Israel's perspective, they had tried the diplomatic track and feel this was a necessary move. Obviously, many others disagree with that assessment, but that was very much the thinking in Israel talking to people there this summer.

So, Professor, we have reporting this morning that Israel has begun targeted ground rates at the uproot Hesbola in southern Lebanon. It seems like Israel is kind of settling all debts with all parties out there following October seventh. Here overall, what do you think Israel's strategy is these days?

So, Professor, we have reporting this morning that Israel has begun targeted ground rates at the uproot Hesbola in southern Lebanon. It seems like Israel is kind of settling all debts with all parties out there following October seventh. Here overall, what do you think Israel's strategy is these days?

Yeo, I think you said it. I mean it's a couple of things. One, in terms of this current operation, there's been tens of thousands of Israelis who were uprooted from their homes in northern Israel because of essentially daily rocket attacks from Hesbela into the north. So part of this termain is just getting back control over that territory and getting people back to their homes. But I would say the bigger objective for Israel is to reassert their security deterns, their security superiority in the region, and to just flex that a little bit. After the atrocities of October seventh after being caught in the back foot, and to come back on the offensive and really send the message to all groups in the region, not just Hamass and not just has Blog.

Yeo, I think you said it. I mean it's a couple of things. One, in terms of this current operation, there's been tens of thousands of Israelis who were uprooted from their homes in northern Israel because of essentially daily rocket attacks from Hesbela into the north. So part of this termain is just getting back control over that territory and getting people back to their homes. But I would say the bigger objective for Israel is to reassert their security deterns, their security superiority in the region, and to just flex that a little bit. After the atrocities of October seventh after being caught in the back foot, and to come back on the offensive and really send the message to all groups in the region, not just Hamass and not just has Blog.

The distance from Tehran to Beirut is inside of a thousand miles. What does everybody in between e to Run and Beroot want? In the Arab world? What does Riod want? What does Kuwait want? What does Abu Dhabi want?

The distance from Tehran to Beirut is inside of a thousand miles. What does everybody in between e to Run and Beroot want? In the Arab world? What does Riod want? What does Kuwait want? What does Abu Dhabi want?

Yeah, it's a good question, Tom, because the Middle East itself is not There's not a straight alignment on this.

Yeah, it's a good question, Tom, because the Middle East itself is not There's not a straight alignment on this.

Is it just but is it just sunny Suoni Shiya? Is it just as simple as that?

Is it just but is it just sunny Suoni Shiya? Is it just as simple as that?

It often falls along those lines. But I would say it's definitely not that simple. I even point out that Hamas is mostly a Sunni group, even though they're in this you know, Iran access of Resistance network that is mostly Shia and backed by Iran. So even that relationship is not neat on sectarian lines. I think the bigger push here is a massive, like regional power rivalry between Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Iran on the other, and the states around them who are linked to them for different kinds of interest, some ideological, but some more geopolitical, and so those two states are you know, very very much at odds with each other. And that's one reason why you don't see Ryod, you know, backing up anything that's being done. They see Hesbalah and Iran as just as much of a threat these days as I would say Israel to say the US would to what percentage.

It often falls along those lines. But I would say it's definitely not that simple. I even point out that Hamas is mostly a Sunni group, even though they're in this you know, Iran access of Resistance network that is mostly Shia and backed by Iran. So even that relationship is not neat on sectarian lines. I think the bigger push here is a massive, like regional power rivalry between Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Iran on the other, and the states around them who are linked to them for different kinds of interest, some ideological, but some more geopolitical, and so those two states are you know, very very much at odds with each other. And that's one reason why you don't see Ryod, you know, backing up anything that's being done. They see Hesbalah and Iran as just as much of a threat these days as I would say Israel to say the US would to what percentage.

Of Hezbollah is degraded right now? I mean Paul alluded to that earlier, but I can't get a handle on the how muchness of harm other than the headlines of leaders being killed.

Of Hezbollah is degraded right now? I mean Paul alluded to that earlier, but I can't get a handle on the how muchness of harm other than the headlines of leaders being killed.

Yeah, I'm not sure that anyone really knows, Tom. I mean, we estimate that HASBLA has around fifty thousand operatives, but even that number is an estimate. It's been put higher and lower. And they have an arsenal again estimated around one hundred and fifty thousand different types of rockets and missiles that Israel is trying to degrade. So just to say there's been a lot of damage obviously at that leadership level for sure, but in terms of full operational capacity that still runs pretty deep. And that's Israel's motivation, I think for this ground invasion to try and to try and uproot some of that too, but it's pretty extensive and that's why they've been seen as such a threat.

Yeah, I'm not sure that anyone really knows, Tom. I mean, we estimate that HASBLA has around fifty thousand operatives, but even that number is an estimate. It's been put higher and lower. And they have an arsenal again estimated around one hundred and fifty thousand different types of rockets and missiles that Israel is trying to degrade. So just to say there's been a lot of damage obviously at that leadership level for sure, but in terms of full operational capacity that still runs pretty deep. And that's Israel's motivation, I think for this ground invasion to try and to try and uproot some of that too, but it's pretty extensive and that's why they've been seen as such a threat.

Do we have to go there? Should we go there too? I sh'll come back if we ask an Orioles question. Sure surely. Do they have a pitching Do they stack it like the Tigers will and just go to one or two pitchers to beat the Royals?

Do we have to go there? Should we go there too? I sh'll come back if we ask an Orioles question. Sure surely. Do they have a pitching Do they stack it like the Tigers will and just go to one or two pitchers to beat the Royals?

I mean, I am like full in for October. I will say pitching has been a bit of a challenge for the O's this year, but I think we're going into the I think we're going in strong now and just we're ready. I feel like they're ready for it. They just got to get through these few weeks.

I mean, I am like full in for October. I will say pitching has been a bit of a challenge for the O's this year, but I think we're going into the I think we're going in strong now and just we're ready. I feel like they're ready for it. They just got to get through these few weeks.

It's a joy to see Jim Palmer on their announcing team as well. It's great to see Julie Norman in the background for those of you on radio worldwide and on your commute across the nation. In the background of her London abode is an Orioles cap. There you go from a few years ago, Julie Norman, thank you so much your perspective there on your wheelhouse at UCL which is terrorism in the Middle East joining US now, synergy and a name that you'll know from their board. John cartsonis has been with us before and shipping on the Red Sea and all the challenges. But today the chairman and the chief executive offers of Stemenos and Sinus joins us now from Synergy is Well, sir, I want to speak to what Danny Berger talked about, which is a technology difference of shipping and docks. And she said between Amsterdam and America, is America behind in the technology of loading and unloading ships?

It's a joy to see Jim Palmer on their announcing team as well. It's great to see Julie Norman in the background for those of you on radio worldwide and on your commute across the nation. In the background of her London abode is an Orioles cap. There you go from a few years ago, Julie Norman, thank you so much your perspective there on your wheelhouse at UCL which is terrorism in the Middle East joining US now, synergy and a name that you'll know from their board. John cartsonis has been with us before and shipping on the Red Sea and all the challenges. But today the chairman and the chief executive offers of Stemenos and Sinus joins us now from Synergy is Well, sir, I want to speak to what Danny Berger talked about, which is a technology difference of shipping and docks. And she said between Amsterdam and America, is America behind in the technology of loading and unloading ships?

Well, yes, good morning everyone and nice to be here. Well, I must say that America is generally a little bit behind in infrastructure altogether. So it's not just the loading and unloading of you know, containers, but generally we feel and you know, we've been doing a lot of auto material sex sports from Baltimore especially, it's kind of a little bit behind. Yes, I would recommend, you know, and there's an upgrading on the infrastructure.

Well, yes, good morning everyone and nice to be here. Well, I must say that America is generally a little bit behind in infrastructure altogether. So it's not just the loading and unloading of you know, containers, but generally we feel and you know, we've been doing a lot of auto material sex sports from Baltimore especially, it's kind of a little bit behind. Yes, I would recommend, you know, and there's an upgrading on the infrastructure.

The sooner the better.

The sooner the better.

So a stomatics give us a sense of how these strikes they happened very rarely, although we had one in the West Coast a couple of years ago, but here on the East Coast it's been a long time. How does it impact the consumer and over what time frame typically.

So a stomatics give us a sense of how these strikes they happened very rarely, although we had one in the West Coast a couple of years ago, but here on the East Coast it's been a long time. How does it impact the consumer and over what time frame typically.

Well, I cannot think of a worse coincidence, to be honest, because it's not only the strike that is coming up and starting and it's going to cost the US economy anywhere between four and a half and seven and a half billion dollars per week. It's also the Red Sea disruption, so you know, you have all the East Coast being affected because you know, the vast majority of the containers are also affected by the Hoodies and the terrorists strikes in the Red Sea. So you know, having that which has to divert the ships around the Cape of Good Hope together with the strike, I believe that's kind of a bad combination to happen, you know. But you know, to be honest, it's like pre election, So I believe that the people feel that they have leverage to push for certain things, and that's what's happening right now.

Well, I cannot think of a worse coincidence, to be honest, because it's not only the strike that is coming up and starting and it's going to cost the US economy anywhere between four and a half and seven and a half billion dollars per week. It's also the Red Sea disruption, so you know, you have all the East Coast being affected because you know, the vast majority of the containers are also affected by the Hoodies and the terrorists strikes in the Red Sea. So you know, having that which has to divert the ships around the Cape of Good Hope together with the strike, I believe that's kind of a bad combination to happen, you know. But you know, to be honest, it's like pre election, So I believe that the people feel that they have leverage to push for certain things, and that's what's happening right now.

The matters. If the experts in the pundits say we can shift from East coast Gulf Stroke coast strike bound a mare over to the Pacific coast, how do you interpret that? Is that doable?

The matters. If the experts in the pundits say we can shift from East coast Gulf Stroke coast strike bound a mare over to the Pacific coast, how do you interpret that? Is that doable?

Well, I believe that the railroad system is already kind of full, so I'm not so sure that this can happen effectively, because you know, transporting almost half of your tu import capacity from one coast to the other and then putting it on a rail road, I don't think that's so visible. Maybe it is for a short period of time, but I don't think that's a solution that it's going to work out in the long run.

Well, I believe that the railroad system is already kind of full, so I'm not so sure that this can happen effectively, because you know, transporting almost half of your tu import capacity from one coast to the other and then putting it on a rail road, I don't think that's so visible. Maybe it is for a short period of time, but I don't think that's a solution that it's going to work out in the long run.

No way.

No way.

So what are you doing with your ships? I'm looking at your map here, and you've got some ships in the Atlantic Ocean, you know, coming or going towards the US. What are you telling your fleet these days about the east coast of the US.

So what are you doing with your ships? I'm looking at your map here, and you've got some ships in the Atlantic Ocean, you know, coming or going towards the US. What are you telling your fleet these days about the east coast of the US.

Well, we don't have any upcoming calls in the US right now, and the only ones we have is in Baltimore, which has not been affected. So we are outside of this thing, and we're not being affected so far, and as longer believe that we will not be affected.

Well, we don't have any upcoming calls in the US right now, and the only ones we have is in Baltimore, which has not been affected. So we are outside of this thing, and we're not being affected so far, and as longer believe that we will not be affected.

So we're good. I mean, synergy is good.

So we're good. I mean, synergy is good.

And you know, I believe that the exports of coal outside of Baltimore will continue, and that's not going to be you know, a more detrimental effect to the US.

And you know, I believe that the exports of coal outside of Baltimore will continue, and that's not going to be you know, a more detrimental effect to the US.

Economy, geopolitics. It's roaring its ugly head here, both in the Baltics and in the Middle East. How does that affect global shipping and is the global shipping industry kind of adjusted to it.

Economy, geopolitics. It's roaring its ugly head here, both in the Baltics and in the Middle East. How does that affect global shipping and is the global shipping industry kind of adjusted to it.

Well, I'm afraid to say that any global effect and any bad geopolitical effect, it's unfortunately good for shipping. You know, freight rage go up because you have longer trading routes. Vessels need to divert and do longer distances, so the tone mail effect gets bigger and bigger.

Well, I'm afraid to say that any global effect and any bad geopolitical effect, it's unfortunately good for shipping. You know, freight rage go up because you have longer trading routes. Vessels need to divert and do longer distances, so the tone mail effect gets bigger and bigger.

So by saying that the.

So by saying that the.

Cost of the consumer, because transportation cost also increases, eventually that is paid by the consumer one way or another.

Cost of the consumer, because transportation cost also increases, eventually that is paid by the consumer one way or another.

And the more it lasts, you have.

And the more it lasts, you have.

A cascading effect which unfortunately brings and files up the whole thing.

A cascading effect which unfortunately brings and files up the whole thing.

More and more.

More and more.

Stomatus. When I look at your income statements and the guess forward into this year and next year, it sort of looks like a meg seven income statement. You got an ebit. We're guessing sixty cents on the dollar your net income. Maybe it's going to be twenty five, maybe more cents on a dollar. It's a pretty profitable business. How much is labor at the docks part of the expense of doing business? Do you look at it as a major thing or is it an afterthought.

Stomatus. When I look at your income statements and the guess forward into this year and next year, it sort of looks like a meg seven income statement. You got an ebit. We're guessing sixty cents on the dollar your net income. Maybe it's going to be twenty five, maybe more cents on a dollar. It's a pretty profitable business. How much is labor at the docks part of the expense of doing business? Do you look at it as a major thing or is it an afterthought.

Well, I believe that you're understating our future A figure is quite substantially. I think it's going to be much higher than that. You know, dog works and we're not so dependent in the United States. But if we had to be dependent more in the United States, I would say that, you know, it would have been much better for the business because the more delays that is causing, the better off it's for the freight rate. And I'm very sorry to say that, but things need to be resolved. You cannot have all the Middle Eastern and the fists and ports warning these kind of amazing capacities, and you know, a spectacular country like the United States to be so far behind in infrastructure that needs to be in my opinion fixed.

Well, I believe that you're understating our future A figure is quite substantially. I think it's going to be much higher than that. You know, dog works and we're not so dependent in the United States. But if we had to be dependent more in the United States, I would say that, you know, it would have been much better for the business because the more delays that is causing, the better off it's for the freight rate. And I'm very sorry to say that, but things need to be resolved. You cannot have all the Middle Eastern and the fists and ports warning these kind of amazing capacities, and you know, a spectacular country like the United States to be so far behind in infrastructure that needs to be in my opinion fixed.

What do they need to fix in the United States to catch up, whether it's shipbuilding, the rest of the industry always says this to us, we're behind. In our parochial view, what's the number one thing America's got to catch up on?

What do they need to fix in the United States to catch up, whether it's shipbuilding, the rest of the industry always says this to us, we're behind. In our parochial view, what's the number one thing America's got to catch up on?

Well, shipbuilding.

Well, shipbuilding.

I think we're going to be requiring hours and hours to be talking about shipbuilding and where the United States, How the United States compares with the farest and countries and that's strategic and that's also military, so that needs a very careful consideration with whatever the administration may be. But boart infrastructure and the railroads and the ability to be exporting all these pressures, all materials that you have from the country and you know, being beneficial of the economy, that in my opinion, should be number one priority.

I think we're going to be requiring hours and hours to be talking about shipbuilding and where the United States, How the United States compares with the farest and countries and that's strategic and that's also military, so that needs a very careful consideration with whatever the administration may be. But boart infrastructure and the railroads and the ability to be exporting all these pressures, all materials that you have from the country and you know, being beneficial of the economy, that in my opinion, should be number one priority.

It's the honest your company, Synergy Maritime and Maritime United, talk to us about the types of ships that are in your fleet and what types of cargoes do you guys focus on.

It's the honest your company, Synergy Maritime and Maritime United, talk to us about the types of ships that are in your fleet and what types of cargoes do you guys focus on.

Thank you.

Thank you.

We're one of the biggest owners of the cape size drive back vessels and we transport a lot of iron, ore and coal. So our ships are pretty much required for the transportation needs of raw materials that are required for infrastructure, so in order to make steel globally, and that is required for everything you know, from bridges, tunnels, roads, railroads or whatever you really need to steal. And that's pretty much fundamental and that's what we do. We transport vast quantities of raw materials, tens of millions of tons a year.

We're one of the biggest owners of the cape size drive back vessels and we transport a lot of iron, ore and coal. So our ships are pretty much required for the transportation needs of raw materials that are required for infrastructure, so in order to make steel globally, and that is required for everything you know, from bridges, tunnels, roads, railroads or whatever you really need to steal. And that's pretty much fundamental and that's what we do. We transport vast quantities of raw materials, tens of millions of tons a year.

Of iron oracle and box side.

Of iron oracle and box side.

The last three years we have exported about two million tons of coal from Baltimore to the Middle East and India, so we have been quite big into sporting call outside of Baltimore.

The last three years we have exported about two million tons of coal from Baltimore to the Middle East and India, so we have been quite big into sporting call outside of Baltimore.

Ours, sir, thank you so much for joining us today as we look at day one of the strike, including at Baltimore's Samantis. The Santas joins us this morning from Synergy. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.

Ours, sir, thank you so much for joining us today as we look at day one of the strike, including at Baltimore's Samantis. The Santas joins us this morning from Synergy. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.