Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Stephanie Roth joined us from Wolf and was really, really quite good about the moment. None of that mattered. The conversation is ancient history. She joins us for a reset after what we've witnessed in the last say, seventy two hours as well, I don't want you to do it? What if I want you to do how the fed Ex post waiting for data adapts and adjusts to the instabilities coming out of the Oval office in sixteen under Pennsylvania.

Stephanie Roth joined us from Wolf and was really, really quite good about the moment. None of that mattered. The conversation is ancient history. She joins us for a reset after what we've witnessed in the last say, seventy two hours as well, I don't want you to do it? What if I want you to do how the fed Ex post waiting for data adapts and adjusts to the instabilities coming out of the Oval office in sixteen under Pennsylvania.

Don't tell me. They just ignore it.

Don't tell me. They just ignore it.

But they don't just ignore it, but they probably don't do much because it doesn't make sense for them to be cutting if there's the potential for tariffs to be moving, inflation expectations higher.

But they don't just ignore it, but they probably don't do much because it doesn't make sense for them to be cutting if there's the potential for tariffs to be moving, inflation expectations higher.

Are they more frozen than they were forty eight hours ago?

Are they more frozen than they were forty eight hours ago?

No? Probably not.

No? Probably not.

So.

So.

Okay, here's what we learned right, Tariffs on Canada and Mexico. That's what was really going to impact the US economy. That was going to be a real inflationary force. Could have boosted inflation by fifty plus basis points. It got delayed a month base cases. They probably just don't happen. I think that's what kind of that's what the message was. Trump probably wanted to do the China tariffs regardless, so the fact that that was a much smaller ten percent that was probably gonna happen either way, and he's going to continue to wratchet up tariffs on China. The Canada Mexico ones made a lot less sense, especially when we're talking in Canada.

Okay, here's what we learned right, Tariffs on Canada and Mexico. That's what was really going to impact the US economy. That was going to be a real inflationary force. Could have boosted inflation by fifty plus basis points. It got delayed a month base cases. They probably just don't happen. I think that's what kind of that's what the message was. Trump probably wanted to do the China tariffs regardless, so the fact that that was a much smaller ten percent that was probably gonna happen either way, and he's going to continue to wratchet up tariffs on China. The Canada Mexico ones made a lot less sense, especially when we're talking in Canada.

So have you adjusted your inflation out look at all for these tariffs or you're just kind of waiting to see what actually gets enacted if anything.

So have you adjusted your inflation out look at all for these tariffs or you're just kind of waiting to see what actually gets enacted if anything.

So, based on our numbers, the China tariffs could boost infation by about ten basis points this year and hit GDP by about ten basis points as well. So at this point, I'm just going to wait and see what happens in the next two weeks.

So, based on our numbers, the China tariffs could boost infation by about ten basis points this year and hit GDP by about ten basis points as well. So at this point, I'm just going to wait and see what happens in the next two weeks.

Could that be plus or minus ten baks points for sure?

Could that be plus or minus ten baks points for sure?

The rest of it, Yeah, but we're we're not assuming certainly any of the broader tariffs going to effect at this.

The rest of it, Yeah, but we're we're not assuming certainly any of the broader tariffs going to effect at this.

Point, I'm absolutely fascinated by Atlanta GDP, which is a squishy number out on your four percent real GDP. Let's say that's an anomaly. But do we just continue to get the growthiness surprise that is made up the last eighteen months.

Point, I'm absolutely fascinated by Atlanta GDP, which is a squishy number out on your four percent real GDP. Let's say that's an anomaly. But do we just continue to get the growthiness surprise that is made up the last eighteen months.

At some point it will probably cool down, but we're still looking, we're.

At some point it will probably cool down, but we're still looking, we're.

Rating, and we're still your own palls doing well. That's what your own powers. And there's things.

Rating, and we're still your own palls doing well. That's what your own powers. And there's things.

There's a couple of things that are truly boosting the US economy and equity equity valuations are a big part of it. Networth in the US economy has been incredibly strong, over fifteen trillion dollars above the prior trend. And if you assume a couple cents on the dollar, that's a real boost to consumer spending something of the two and of one to two percent. And then, by the way, crypto, which you know doesn't go talking about quite as much, but there's also real wealth there and the marginal propensity to consume or the desire to consume for every dollar of wealth and in the crypto space is higher than.

There's a couple of things that are truly boosting the US economy and equity equity valuations are a big part of it. Networth in the US economy has been incredibly strong, over fifteen trillion dollars above the prior trend. And if you assume a couple cents on the dollar, that's a real boost to consumer spending something of the two and of one to two percent. And then, by the way, crypto, which you know doesn't go talking about quite as much, but there's also real wealth there and the marginal propensity to consume or the desire to consume for every dollar of wealth and in the crypto space is higher than.

What it would be.

What it would be.

This is important.

This is important.

You think the PhDs that the equities building, the echos building are looking at the marginal propensity to consume a bit dog.

You think the PhDs that the equities building, the echos building are looking at the marginal propensity to consume a bit dog.

I think they're starting to because it seems like there's a legitimate impact.

I think they're starting to because it seems like there's a legitimate impact.

At this point, you can't really ignore.

At this point, you can't really ignore.

It, all right, Stephanie, So what is your GDP call for twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six.

It, all right, Stephanie, So what is your GDP call for twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six.

GDP for twenty twenty five is two point two inflation of two three twenty twenty six, we're looking at something closer to two percent. But I'm starting to get worried that terrifs will become a real issue for twenty twenty six, which would then put GDP below two percent.

GDP for twenty twenty five is two point two inflation of two three twenty twenty six, we're looking at something closer to two percent. But I'm starting to get worried that terrifs will become a real issue for twenty twenty six, which would then put GDP below two percent.

And is that driven by I mean, again, the consumer is seventy percent of this economy, so having any growth this year and next year flies that you have some confidence in the consumer.

And is that driven by I mean, again, the consumer is seventy percent of this economy, so having any growth this year and next year flies that you have some confidence in the consumer.

I do have confidence in the consumer. The consumer is doing just fine, especially if they don't get hit by these massive tariff at least this year. They have wealth and inequities in real estate. The labor market is just fine. We didn't talk about that, but jobs are probably going to be print another solid one this month, and that's what drives the consumer. They might be upset about the price of a lot of goods, especially when it comes to groceries.

I do have confidence in the consumer. The consumer is doing just fine, especially if they don't get hit by these massive tariff at least this year. They have wealth and inequities in real estate. The labor market is just fine. We didn't talk about that, but jobs are probably going to be print another solid one this month, and that's what drives the consumer. They might be upset about the price of a lot of goods, especially when it comes to groceries.

But we just have largely kept up with a lot of those goods.

But we just have largely kept up with a lot of those goods.

Jason Furman does a lot of work on an ecumenical inflation call, looking at different sum to annualized returns three month to annualize six months.

Jason Furman does a lot of work on an ecumenical inflation call, looking at different sum to annualized returns three month to annualize six months.

All of them are sub three percent.

All of them are sub three percent.

As a general statement, will the shock that we see out the next three months, two three, four FED meetings be one or some of those annualized returns being under two percent?

As a general statement, will the shock that we see out the next three months, two three, four FED meetings be one or some of those annualized returns being under two percent?

I wouldn't bet on the key one numbers being under two percent because we still have seasonal problems that if you have to be a dress the data.

I wouldn't bet on the key one numbers being under two percent because we still have seasonal problems that if you have to be a dress the data.

But Q two certainly could be Wow.

But Q two certainly could be Wow.

I mean that's a that's a wild observation, and that inflation, you know, Oeer finally becomes well behaved in real estate becomes well behaved. Is that enough to generate a rate cut discussion? I just don't buy it. Given the political madness in.

I mean that's a that's a wild observation, and that inflation, you know, Oeer finally becomes well behaved in real estate becomes well behaved. Is that enough to generate a rate cut discussion? I just don't buy it. Given the political madness in.

Washington we have, we have a rain cut in our forecast for May. But to be fair, that one's very.

Washington we have, we have a rain cut in our forecast for May. But to be fair, that one's very.

Much would you like to make some news here?

Much would you like to make some news here?

Certainly not, but that one's really into that one's going to really rely on the employment data in the next couple of months being a little bit softer and inflation being subdued. We're going to have to get past the first January, February, March prints in terms of inflation, because that's where you see the real seasonality problems and that's going to continue again.

Certainly not, but that one's really into that one's going to really rely on the employment data in the next couple of months being a little bit softer and inflation being subdued. We're going to have to get past the first January, February, March prints in terms of inflation, because that's where you see the real seasonality problems and that's going to continue again.

Well on Friday, we are going to get the change in nonfarm and payrolls, and you know, one hundred and seventy thousand is the consensus. Quite a normal discussion about Friday exactly, and that big print last month of two hundred and fifty six thousand. What is your view of the labor market. I mean, we're going to get some some people are concerned that, Okay, nobody's firing anybody, but nobody's really hiring either.

Well on Friday, we are going to get the change in nonfarm and payrolls, and you know, one hundred and seventy thousand is the consensus. Quite a normal discussion about Friday exactly, and that big print last month of two hundred and fifty six thousand. What is your view of the labor market. I mean, we're going to get some some people are concerned that, Okay, nobody's firing anybody, but nobody's really hiring either.

How do you think about the labor market, Yeah, the labor market's doing okay. There's been a lot of volatility when it comes to strikes and but weather, so it's hard to look through it. But our base case is the trend in payrolls is somewhere around one hundred and sixty thousand, which is really quite solid. This year is going to present some challenges though, because immigration trends are going to be going the other way than what they've been the past couple of years. So a lot of people, rough were estimate about three point six million people are going to lose their visas to work over the next two years, which will pose some challenges for the labor market. And that's a lot of that role that's going to happen in the bout half of this year.

How do you think about the labor market, Yeah, the labor market's doing okay. There's been a lot of volatility when it comes to strikes and but weather, so it's hard to look through it. But our base case is the trend in payrolls is somewhere around one hundred and sixty thousand, which is really quite solid. This year is going to present some challenges though, because immigration trends are going to be going the other way than what they've been the past couple of years. So a lot of people, rough were estimate about three point six million people are going to lose their visas to work over the next two years, which will pose some challenges for the labor market. And that's a lot of that role that's going to happen in the bout half of this year.

Like have you looked back over the last three four years about migration, legal and illegal, how that contributed to the labor force, because it feels like it's been a non you know, a fairly significant driver.

Like have you looked back over the last three four years about migration, legal and illegal, how that contributed to the labor force, because it feels like it's been a non you know, a fairly significant driver.

It's probably one of the single biggest reasons why the Fed was able to actually rebalance the economy without causing our session is because we've got the supply side of the labor market actually helping to bring down inflation, so we didn't need the demand side of the economy to slow down quite as much. Now this is going the other way, which is into some degree okay, because now demand for labor has cooled compared to where we were two years ago. But this could present some challenges. We might start to see wage inflation pick up towards the back part of this year as labor supply again becomes constrained.

It's probably one of the single biggest reasons why the Fed was able to actually rebalance the economy without causing our session is because we've got the supply side of the labor market actually helping to bring down inflation, so we didn't need the demand side of the economy to slow down quite as much. Now this is going the other way, which is into some degree okay, because now demand for labor has cooled compared to where we were two years ago. But this could present some challenges. We might start to see wage inflation pick up towards the back part of this year as labor supply again becomes constrained.

Paul mentioned this in Ana Wong and Bloomberg Economics.

Paul mentioned this in Ana Wong and Bloomberg Economics.

Has provided global leadership on this, and this is the fourteen it's like Howard Johnson's It's like the pistachio revision or the butternut maple nut or revision. The revisions like this job's day. Are there one or two to study or is it just chaos through the spring and revisions of the job market.

Has provided global leadership on this, and this is the fourteen it's like Howard Johnson's It's like the pistachio revision or the butternut maple nut or revision. The revisions like this job's day. Are there one or two to study or is it just chaos through the spring and revisions of the job market.

So this is going to be a chaotic report because this report, because we get annual revisions to both the headline jobs numbers and then also the data that associated with the unemployment rate.

So this is going to be a chaotic report because this report, because we get annual revisions to both the headline jobs numbers and then also the data that associated with the unemployment rate.

To what's going to.

To what's going to.

Happen is we're going to get a large upward revisi into the population which is tied to the measure for the unemployment rate.

Happen is we're going to get a large upward revisi into the population which is tied to the measure for the unemployment rate.

So it's going to be very confusing.

So it's going to be very confusing.

You can't compare the January reading to December numbers because the revisions kind of don't don't work so well that way. But so there's gonna be a lot of noise the combination of massive revisions to the prior prior years. By the way, they're going to be adding three point six million people roughly to the labor force that weren't previously there. And then we also have the impact of the fires on going to be impacting the payroll's numbers, so that's where there could be a surprise that might be difficult to summer.

You can't compare the January reading to December numbers because the revisions kind of don't don't work so well that way. But so there's gonna be a lot of noise the combination of massive revisions to the prior prior years. By the way, they're going to be adding three point six million people roughly to the labor force that weren't previously there. And then we also have the impact of the fires on going to be impacting the payroll's numbers, so that's where there could be a surprise that might be difficult to summer.

Here, we're going to see a higher unemployment ratar we shock with revisions and go to three point nine.

Here, we're going to see a higher unemployment ratar we shock with revisions and go to three point nine.

Percent, So for this part we're looking for four to one because they're going to revise both the numerator and the denominator, so in theory it should be all kind of help.

Percent, So for this part we're looking for four to one because they're going to revise both the numerator and the denominator, so in theory it should be all kind of help.

This is the differential equations part of the show enumerator and the denominator a wise one.

This is the differential equations part of the show enumerator and the denominator a wise one.

Yes, the moving the numertor and the denominator a base case.

Yes, the moving the numertor and the denominator a base case.

Which partial differential is most important.

Which partial differential is most important.

What we'll see is we'll get a little bit of upward pressure on the unemployment rate because there's going to be more people that have a slightly higher unemployment rate. So just the mixshift of people will be slightly higher terms of uneplom rate, but it shouldn't be massive. The thing that we're going to see over the next year, which is important, is that the unemployment rate will probably nudge down throughout the course of twenty twenty five, as labor comes constrained as a result of immigration, trends being pulled back pretty substantially.

What we'll see is we'll get a little bit of upward pressure on the unemployment rate because there's going to be more people that have a slightly higher unemployment rate. So just the mixshift of people will be slightly higher terms of uneplom rate, but it shouldn't be massive. The thing that we're going to see over the next year, which is important, is that the unemployment rate will probably nudge down throughout the course of twenty twenty five, as labor comes constrained as a result of immigration, trends being pulled back pretty substantially.

Interesting.

Interesting.

See when you were in class and everybody who's pulling the quality See.

See when you were in class and everybody who's pulling the quality See.

Yeah, Stephanie was up in the third take a notes, nailing the.

Yeah, Stephanie was up in the third take a notes, nailing the.

Curve shift it right out to it at AAA plus.

Curve shift it right out to it at AAA plus.

We hated her.

We hated her.

Yeah, gentlemen, c I was planning my next tea time across the street to do golf course. Stephanie, step back here. Talk to us about just a little bit more of a global view here. What's the impact on the global economy, on the US economy if China just does not get back on its feet.

Yeah, gentlemen, c I was planning my next tea time across the street to do golf course. Stephanie, step back here. Talk to us about just a little bit more of a global view here. What's the impact on the global economy, on the US economy if China just does not get back on its feet.

You know, we've been pretty insulated from China's economy for the past couple of years.

You know, we've been pretty insulated from China's economy for the past couple of years.

And I think it's going to be more of the same.

And I think it's going to be more of the same.

The US economy has been exceptional and Chinese economy has been quite sluggish.

The US economy has been exceptional and Chinese economy has been quite sluggish.

And I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

And I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

And I mean there's also the European economy has been weaker than they would certainly like. Certainly Germany, with its reliance on China and with its reliance on Russian for fuel, has been challenged as well, but that hasn't seemed to really impacted the US economy that much.

And I mean there's also the European economy has been weaker than they would certainly like. Certainly Germany, with its reliance on China and with its reliance on Russian for fuel, has been challenged as well, but that hasn't seemed to really impacted the US economy that much.

No, it's been it's been pretty independent of the global cycle. And I think that's a lesson that we've learned as we've over time just shifted to become our sort of independent business cycle.

No, it's been it's been pretty independent of the global cycle. And I think that's a lesson that we've learned as we've over time just shifted to become our sort of independent business cycle.

And that will probably be the case for quite some time, and.

And that will probably be the case for quite some time, and.

The US economy will probably continue to remain fairly robust and the global economy might be kind of sluggish like we've seen for the past couple of years.

The US economy will probably continue to remain fairly robust and the global economy might be kind of sluggish like we've seen for the past couple of years.

Well, how's Paul doing.

Well, how's Paul doing.

I mean, to me, they have to work ex posts, they have to be data dependent. You are brilliant unforded forward guidance at the fed to side show. But the answer is just they you know, they just they have to go day by day, months by month.

I mean, to me, they have to work ex posts, they have to be data dependent. You are brilliant unforded forward guidance at the fed to side show. But the answer is just they you know, they just they have to go day by day, months by month.

Now.

Now.

Yeah, And I mean it's tough for the for market participants because we don't really know exactly what the framework looks like. They haven't said a very clear framework for how they're thinking about it what to look for. The clearest thing that we've learned so far is it's going to a lot of it's going to come down to inflation expectations. Powell has pointed us to the September twenty eighteen teal book, and that basically said they had two different scenarios for how triffs impact the economy, and the differentiating factor between whether they have to cause a recession or not is if inflation expectations are angered.

Yeah, And I mean it's tough for the for market participants because we don't really know exactly what the framework looks like. They haven't said a very clear framework for how they're thinking about it what to look for. The clearest thing that we've learned so far is it's going to a lot of it's going to come down to inflation expectations. Powell has pointed us to the September twenty eighteen teal book, and that basically said they had two different scenarios for how triffs impact the economy, and the differentiating factor between whether they have to cause a recession or not is if inflation expectations are angered.

Step Thank you Stephanie roth Wolf research with us just really got a huge response when she's on some real clarity there about an ex post Central Bank.

Step Thank you Stephanie roth Wolf research with us just really got a huge response when she's on some real clarity there about an ex post Central Bank.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business Up, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business Up, or watch us live on YouTube.

Let us talk about President Trump's fascination with a gilded age, which is up to World War Two.

Let us talk about President Trump's fascination with a gilded age, which is up to World War Two.

There was an artist in Paris and then in.

There was an artist in Paris and then in.

America immediately acclaimed as a young lad named Gus Sangoden, and in nineteen fourteen he made a gold coin, a twenty dollars double eagle gold coin, which is, you know, it's about the price of a weekend ticket right now, three thousand dollars for that. But the answer is there was a time where there were gold coins and they mattered, and it was a gilded age, and the president is fixated on that time. James Steele owns a high ground on this it joins us this morning. Gold at twenty eight hundred dollars an ounce is gold within a non flexible system, a far more dynamic system made more dynamic by Richard Nixon in nineteen seventy one. Are we in a gilded age of your gold as we were in nineteen fourteen with the twenty dollars double eagle?

America immediately acclaimed as a young lad named Gus Sangoden, and in nineteen fourteen he made a gold coin, a twenty dollars double eagle gold coin, which is, you know, it's about the price of a weekend ticket right now, three thousand dollars for that. But the answer is there was a time where there were gold coins and they mattered, and it was a gilded age, and the president is fixated on that time. James Steele owns a high ground on this it joins us this morning. Gold at twenty eight hundred dollars an ounce is gold within a non flexible system, a far more dynamic system made more dynamic by Richard Nixon in nineteen seventy one. Are we in a gilded age of your gold as we were in nineteen fourteen with the twenty dollars double eagle?

Well, what we are thank you for having me, Tom, And what we are is in a situation, is in a climate ever since Richard Nixon released us from Bretton Woods August seventy one. Yes, indeed, I remember it. I was at Catholic school at the time, and I remember when that was released and gold was allowed to begin to float freely and was freely completely freed by nineteen seventy three, and gold has continued. Gold fell throughout the nineties, but on balance has risen and we are in an age where government does not dictate what the gold price.

Well, what we are thank you for having me, Tom, And what we are is in a situation, is in a climate ever since Richard Nixon released us from Bretton Woods August seventy one. Yes, indeed, I remember it. I was at Catholic school at the time, and I remember when that was released and gold was allowed to begin to float freely and was freely completely freed by nineteen seventy three, and gold has continued. Gold fell throughout the nineties, but on balance has risen and we are in an age where government does not dictate what the gold price.

That's where I want to go. Okay.

That's where I want to go. Okay.

We had a static, rules driven, government driven environment up until Bretonwoods nineteen forty four, and the Nixon destroyed it. And yet now the paper reports are we've got bars of gold coming from London.

We had a static, rules driven, government driven environment up until Bretonwoods nineteen forty four, and the Nixon destroyed it. And yet now the paper reports are we've got bars of gold coming from London.

Over to New York.

Over to New York.

You're expert on this government's trying to control gold now, trying to get us back to that time and place.

You're expert on this government's trying to control gold now, trying to get us back to that time and place.

I don't think they can do it.

I don't think they can do it.

No, no, and I don't think in that sense that they that they want to. One of the things about when we were on a gold standard save from the end of the Napoleonic War up until the First War, and it was enormously successful. Sterling was the world's reserve currency backed by gold. But the reason that it worked was because that was at a time of incredible expansion in the supply of gold. That's when the North America, Australia, Southern Africa really opened up, so and effectively the increase in gold was like raising the money supply. And we're not in that situation now. We couldn't have the world's currencies tied back to the dollar.

No, no, and I don't think in that sense that they that they want to. One of the things about when we were on a gold standard save from the end of the Napoleonic War up until the First War, and it was enormously successful. Sterling was the world's reserve currency backed by gold. But the reason that it worked was because that was at a time of incredible expansion in the supply of gold. That's when the North America, Australia, Southern Africa really opened up, so and effectively the increase in gold was like raising the money supply. And we're not in that situation now. We couldn't have the world's currencies tied back to the dollar.

Again.

Again.

The gold market isn't big enough or fluid enough in the modern times. But it worked, and it sufficed for a long period and made trade very very stable.

The gold market isn't big enough or fluid enough in the modern times. But it worked, and it sufficed for a long period and made trade very very stable.

Did it but.

Did it but.

Kept the rich rich and subdued the middle class. And then we said we needed a credit expansion, and that was an overlay out of the New Deal, the depression and all that into World War Two. So what's the next step here for gold? Paul?

Kept the rich rich and subdued the middle class. And then we said we needed a credit expansion, and that was an overlay out of the New Deal, the depression and all that into World War Two. So what's the next step here for gold? Paul?

You bought it at what one thousand an ounce? Eight hundred? I mean, what's the next step? James Deal?

You bought it at what one thousand an ounce? Eight hundred? I mean, what's the next step? James Deal?

Well, indeed, I mean, and I do like the historical reference because William Jennings Bryan said, not a crossify us on a cross of silver, because we were on a by metallic Is.

Well, indeed, I mean, and I do like the historical reference because William Jennings Bryan said, not a crossify us on a cross of silver, because we were on a by metallic Is.

Donald Trump saying it right now? I think there's some element of that.

Donald Trump saying it right now? I think there's some element of that.

Well, I think that what we're seeing is a geopolitical uncertainty, uncertainty over trade and taris and what gold is, it's it's a release valve. It allows for that uncertainty to be made visible.

Well, I think that what we're seeing is a geopolitical uncertainty, uncertainty over trade and taris and what gold is, it's it's a release valve. It allows for that uncertainty to be made visible.

So China, where are they in terms of demand here for gold?

So China, where are they in terms of demand here for gold?

Because I know the.

Because I know the.

Last several times we spoke, you were really explained to us how China, the government, China the population are incremental buyers of gold, and that's been one of the reasons that gold's been moving higher. Is that still the case?

Last several times we spoke, you were really explained to us how China, the government, China the population are incremental buyers of gold, and that's been one of the reasons that gold's been moving higher. Is that still the case?

Yes?

Yes?

On balance, China is in the unusual position of being both the world's largest producer of gold and the world's largest consumer and often the world's largest importer, rivaling with India depending upon the year. So if you can think about taking corn to Iowa, I mean, that's what their importing gold is like. But high prices have curbed retail demand fifty percent of all physical demand in the world. I'm not talking about what we trade on Wall Street or the city, but underlying demand is between China and India. Yes, and these high prices.

On balance, China is in the unusual position of being both the world's largest producer of gold and the world's largest consumer and often the world's largest importer, rivaling with India depending upon the year. So if you can think about taking corn to Iowa, I mean, that's what their importing gold is like. But high prices have curbed retail demand fifty percent of all physical demand in the world. I'm not talking about what we trade on Wall Street or the city, but underlying demand is between China and India. Yes, and these high prices.

It's our great honor to bring you. James Steele of HSBC and I want to go to care Nada.

It's our great honor to bring you. James Steele of HSBC and I want to go to care Nada.

Kin Ross was an amalgamation of three or four companies, you know, typical Canadian.

Kin Ross was an amalgamation of three or four companies, you know, typical Canadian.

Mining out of Toronto and that. But you've been to their mine in Alberta. Is it like a Disney movie? Did you go with White Fang?

Mining out of Toronto and that. But you've been to their mine in Alberta. Is it like a Disney movie? Did you go with White Fang?

Well, without without speaking about to say anyone mine in particular, I have been to mines in Canada, the US, and Australia. It's always a it's always interesting. You have to dig deep for gold. One of the interesting things about mining is that the or grade all over the world is dropping. We've mined a great deal of gold, about fifty percent of all of my gold that's ever been mined was mine between nineteen fourteen and up into the fifties, and so we have to go to further and further out like Papua New Guinea, into the jungle in Indonesia, places like that.

Well, without without speaking about to say anyone mine in particular, I have been to mines in Canada, the US, and Australia. It's always a it's always interesting. You have to dig deep for gold. One of the interesting things about mining is that the or grade all over the world is dropping. We've mined a great deal of gold, about fifty percent of all of my gold that's ever been mined was mine between nineteen fourteen and up into the fifties, and so we have to go to further and further out like Papua New Guinea, into the jungle in Indonesia, places like that.

The gold in this Bulgari snake bracelet that Lisa is looking at for Valentine's Day is that.

The gold in this Bulgari snake bracelet that Lisa is looking at for Valentine's Day is that.

Newly mine gold. Where does that gold come from? It's likely to be.

Newly mine gold. Where does that gold come from? It's likely to be.

But the marvelous thing about gold is that it's never consumed and it doesn't tarnish. So you could have a piece of jewelry around your neck that goes back to ancient Rome or ancient Egypt. It's unlikely, but you might scam.

But the marvelous thing about gold is that it's never consumed and it doesn't tarnish. So you could have a piece of jewelry around your neck that goes back to ancient Rome or ancient Egypt. It's unlikely, but you might scam.

You just described you.

You just described you.

You can't guarantee it, especially after it's been refined into a bar and the bar has been re refined.

You can't guarantee it, especially after it's been refined into a bar and the bar has been re refined.

Fort Ontario twenty six percent. I did, Quebec, yeah, twenty six percent, Quebec nine percent, British Columbia and the rest is a Disney movie up in the mountains with they wear ll bean boots.

Fort Ontario twenty six percent. I did, Quebec, yeah, twenty six percent, Quebec nine percent, British Columbia and the rest is a Disney movie up in the mountains with they wear ll bean boots.

We've been talking a lot about gold because it is up almost eight percent this year, but silver is up ten percent.

We've been talking a lot about gold because it is up almost eight percent this year, but silver is up ten percent.

What's going on?

What's going on?

With silver, well, silver very often. I wouldn't go so our as to say it's the handmaiden of gold, but it does have a correlation what typically happened. But the big difference between silver and gold is that over fifty percent of silver is used industrially and only six percent of gold is used industrially. Less than a fifth is in jewelry and less than a fifth is in coins and bars. So industry is really what powers the demand, and that demand is inelastic. Nobody's stop making a cell phone because the silver price went out. But as far as the trading goes, a lot of people will look at a gold silver ratio, and for much of my career it was fifty to seventy. Now it's sort of seventy to ninety. When it gets above ninety, you tend to see silver being bought quite rapidly. So it's also a much smaller market, so the volatility is there.

With silver, well, silver very often. I wouldn't go so our as to say it's the handmaiden of gold, but it does have a correlation what typically happened. But the big difference between silver and gold is that over fifty percent of silver is used industrially and only six percent of gold is used industrially. Less than a fifth is in jewelry and less than a fifth is in coins and bars. So industry is really what powers the demand, and that demand is inelastic. Nobody's stop making a cell phone because the silver price went out. But as far as the trading goes, a lot of people will look at a gold silver ratio, and for much of my career it was fifty to seventy. Now it's sort of seventy to ninety. When it gets above ninety, you tend to see silver being bought quite rapidly. So it's also a much smaller market, so the volatility is there.

I got time for one more question. We still never enough time with James Steele. I know you don't do by holed cell three years out, five years out, ten years out, gold up just because they're running out of it.

I got time for one more question. We still never enough time with James Steele. I know you don't do by holed cell three years out, five years out, ten years out, gold up just because they're running out of it.

No, not necessarily, and that's because it's stored. There's a lot of gold around the world. There's a lot of silver around the world. A recycling process can be thirty to ninety days to get it back on the market, much quicker than mining. Okay, So when the price goes up enough and we're at levels now in both gold and silver where the recycling element is rising very quickly, and that's an element of supply that's rarely talked about.

No, not necessarily, and that's because it's stored. There's a lot of gold around the world. There's a lot of silver around the world. A recycling process can be thirty to ninety days to get it back on the market, much quicker than mining. Okay, So when the price goes up enough and we're at levels now in both gold and silver where the recycling element is rising very quickly, and that's an element of supply that's rarely talked about.

Lisa, you could melt a bracelet and go see the weekend for front row seats in June.

Lisa, you could melt a bracelet and go see the weekend for front row seats in June.

Genius.

Genius.

Genius.

Genius.

Well, for example, we think that one out of every eight or nine ounces of golden world is in India, and.

Well, for example, we think that one out of every eight or nine ounces of golden world is in India, and.

The gold is.

The gold is.

Held almost exclusively in the hands of housewives, and when the price rises to a certain degree, right, they will hand that gold in and maybe buy something else, got some rupees or play it like that, the very sensitives of the price.

Held almost exclusively in the hands of housewives, and when the price rises to a certain degree, right, they will hand that gold in and maybe buy something else, got some rupees or play it like that, the very sensitives of the price.

James Steele, thank you so much. Never never, always, come always come here. James Steele with HSBC. That was just scimilating on gold fabulous. He is with HSBC.

James Steele, thank you so much. Never never, always, come always come here. James Steele with HSBC. That was just scimilating on gold fabulous. He is with HSBC.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

We're gonna talk now about quiet money, college endowments making a return, the huge pressures. I look at Lafayette College here.

We're gonna talk now about quiet money, college endowments making a return, the huge pressures. I look at Lafayette College here.

End of January, dorm infested with mice. Up. It's Christian Mammani's fault. He joins us.

End of January, dorm infested with mice. Up. It's Christian Mammani's fault. He joins us.

Now CIO at lafay at College. Do you have a mouse fund at your endowment? Is you have something there like to take care of the mice.

Now CIO at lafay at College. Do you have a mouse fund at your endowment? Is you have something there like to take care of the mice.

I didn't expect to start on that topic, but we're working on it.

I didn't expect to start on that topic, but we're working on it.

I look at what Lafaiatte has done. Just tell us about the last two three years. What's your return? How is your return?

I look at what Lafaiatte has done. Just tell us about the last two three years. What's your return? How is your return?

Ben?

Ben?

The return last year was eleven and change, so above a lot of people. Yes, we were in the top quartile as far as endowments are concerned.

The return last year was eleven and change, so above a lot of people. Yes, we were in the top quartile as far as endowments are concerned.

Okay, I'll make it right to it.

Okay, I'll make it right to it.

The major thing we study at Bloomberg is a focus on alternative investments. Are you heavy into an alternative formula or is it more traditional asset classes?

The major thing we study at Bloomberg is a focus on alternative investments. Are you heavy into an alternative formula or is it more traditional asset classes?

Okay, so I think we are heavy into private equities. We have a substantial allocation into private equities. People call them alternatives, but that's not the right way to think about it. The right way to think about private equity is basically it's a better equity. That's how we explain it. That is, you have a longer investment horizon and your returns are expected to be or you expect the returns to be higher than the public equities three hundred basis.

Okay, so I think we are heavy into private equities. We have a substantial allocation into private equities. People call them alternatives, but that's not the right way to think about it. The right way to think about private equity is basically it's a better equity. That's how we explain it. That is, you have a longer investment horizon and your returns are expected to be or you expect the returns to be higher than the public equities three hundred basis.

Let me ask a rude question because Paul's too polite to ask it, which is, you make eleven percent, But are you saying, but we're going to get a pop from private equity because they weren't able to liquefy over the last two, three, four years. Do you look at private equity to pop that return?

Let me ask a rude question because Paul's too polite to ask it, which is, you make eleven percent, But are you saying, but we're going to get a pop from private equity because they weren't able to liquefy over the last two, three, four years. Do you look at private equity to pop that return?

So overall, from a long term strategic allocation standpoint, we have a substantial allocation in private equities, expecting private equities over the long term, not one year, not three year, but long term to outperform public equities or three hundred basis ones?

So overall, from a long term strategic allocation standpoint, we have a substantial allocation in private equities, expecting private equities over the long term, not one year, not three year, but long term to outperform public equities or three hundred basis ones?

Is that not too rude? Puts possible?

Is that not too rude? Puts possible?

I mean, is it is that kind of what I think folks refer to as a Yale model it's not just the sixty forty equities bonds, but also alternatives to kind of generate the better returns.

I mean, is it is that kind of what I think folks refer to as a Yale model it's not just the sixty forty equities bonds, but also alternatives to kind of generate the better returns.

So, you know, the Yale model comes in multiple flavors, and how people think about that, I think is critically important. The way we think about it is our portfolio is roughly seventy thirty seventy percent inequities and thirty percent in bonds. And for equities, we basically have forty five percent private public equities and twenty five percent in private equities, thinking that those private equities over the long term will outperform public equities. So better equities is how we think about it as opposed to alternatives.

So, you know, the Yale model comes in multiple flavors, and how people think about that, I think is critically important. The way we think about it is our portfolio is roughly seventy thirty seventy percent inequities and thirty percent in bonds. And for equities, we basically have forty five percent private public equities and twenty five percent in private equities, thinking that those private equities over the long term will outperform public equities. So better equities is how we think about it as opposed to alternatives.

So we've had in just in the equity markets the past two years, very strong returns north of twenty percent for the S and P five hundred. How do you think about twenty five twenty six? I mean, what's your investment out work here? Maybe given some of the political backdrop, the economic factor.

So we've had in just in the equity markets the past two years, very strong returns north of twenty percent for the S and P five hundred. How do you think about twenty five twenty six? I mean, what's your investment out work here? Maybe given some of the political backdrop, the economic factor.

Of so A, that's a really good question. You know, as kind of perpetual investors, we don't make significant changes in terms of our allocation based on what our near term outlook is. What we are looking to do is generate something north of eight and a half percent, as time was talking about before. And to do that, we have to have a substantial allocation in equities because otherwise you can't generate those types of returns. The the bond part is really more to keep yourself saying and make sure you know we don't have a significant issue and concern when equity markets get very volatile.

Of so A, that's a really good question. You know, as kind of perpetual investors, we don't make significant changes in terms of our allocation based on what our near term outlook is. What we are looking to do is generate something north of eight and a half percent, as time was talking about before. And to do that, we have to have a substantial allocation in equities because otherwise you can't generate those types of returns. The the bond part is really more to keep yourself saying and make sure you know we don't have a significant issue and concern when equity markets get very volatile.

Christian mommoney with us folks of Lafayette College and of course iconic at Investco and others over the years, I want you to speak to people scared stiff. Now your hallmark is you have to participate. You've got to be in the game to win. You're doing that at a college endowment.

Christian mommoney with us folks of Lafayette College and of course iconic at Investco and others over the years, I want you to speak to people scared stiff. Now your hallmark is you have to participate. You've got to be in the game to win. You're doing that at a college endowment.

Now, how do.

Now, how do.

People participate in this bifurcated massively Barbell market.

People participate in this bifurcated massively Barbell market.

Well, so, I think from a longer term perspective, having a decent allocation equities is as important for us as it is for anybody else because bonds, if you are a taxable investors, generating after tax returns out of bonds is going to be has been very difficult, and we'll will likely remain very very very very difficult. Again, having an allocation equity helps your portfolio grow over the long term, and I think the key word there is long term. That's what we are focused on. That's what people should be focused on. From a tactical standpoint, that is, you know, the market outlook today coming into the year as opposed to last two years coming into this year. The one thing I concluded was having a view is going to be hurtful for your financial wellbeing because we just don't know. There's a whole lot in play, you know, as we found out over the last week and as we are likely to find out over the next three six months as to where policy outlook from a fiscal standpoint, from an administrative policy standpoint will shake out. Having a significant kind of play in the middle of all of that doesn't seem that prudent to us.

Well, so, I think from a longer term perspective, having a decent allocation equities is as important for us as it is for anybody else because bonds, if you are a taxable investors, generating after tax returns out of bonds is going to be has been very difficult, and we'll will likely remain very very very very difficult. Again, having an allocation equity helps your portfolio grow over the long term, and I think the key word there is long term. That's what we are focused on. That's what people should be focused on. From a tactical standpoint, that is, you know, the market outlook today coming into the year as opposed to last two years coming into this year. The one thing I concluded was having a view is going to be hurtful for your financial wellbeing because we just don't know. There's a whole lot in play, you know, as we found out over the last week and as we are likely to find out over the next three six months as to where policy outlook from a fiscal standpoint, from an administrative policy standpoint will shake out. Having a significant kind of play in the middle of all of that doesn't seem that prudent to us.

So how do you position a portfolio in a world where there is a lot of uncertainty? You may not want to take a view? Is it just quality quality, quality, both on stocks end bonds or.

So how do you position a portfolio in a world where there is a lot of uncertainty? You may not want to take a view? Is it just quality quality, quality, both on stocks end bonds or.

Well so you know, again, when you don't have a view, you get close to your benchmark, whatever that is. In our case, it's roughly, you know, seventy thirty equities in bonds as opposed to as opposed to significantly higher weight and equities. Having having said that, I think the key here is risk management, making sure that you don't get cutted out or don't get into a situation where you have to sell a position because things are going badly AGAINCIA, and that that would certainly happen. I think having a long term view certainly helps you in maintaining your maintaining a position, not being out of out of position in a significant way, also helps you in that context with.

Well so you know, again, when you don't have a view, you get close to your benchmark, whatever that is. In our case, it's roughly, you know, seventy thirty equities in bonds as opposed to as opposed to significantly higher weight and equities. Having having said that, I think the key here is risk management, making sure that you don't get cutted out or don't get into a situation where you have to sell a position because things are going badly AGAINCIA, and that that would certainly happen. I think having a long term view certainly helps you in maintaining your maintaining a position, not being out of out of position in a significant way, also helps you in that context with.

Your with your work, and particularly you know in mechanical engineering and all the technology work you've done. How do you state MAG seven to very conservative, very frightened college academics popping an eighty seven thousand dollars all intuition, how do you how do you say to them MAG seven in growth in America is your salvation?

Your with your work, and particularly you know in mechanical engineering and all the technology work you've done. How do you state MAG seven to very conservative, very frightened college academics popping an eighty seven thousand dollars all intuition, how do you how do you say to them MAG seven in growth in America is your salvation?

How do you do that well?

How do you do that well?

So I think those are the facts. That is, if you look at the performance of the US equity market over the last ten to fifteen years, it has been driven by It has been driven by technology. In fact, US markets have done spectacularly better than international markets, primarily on the back of performance of MAX seven or some version of MAX seven at various points. So their profitability is extraordinarily good. Their cash flows are extraordinarily good. They are on a cash flow bench, and evaluations are high. So I think the last two factors is what you have to kind of consider more from a tactical standpoint.

So I think those are the facts. That is, if you look at the performance of the US equity market over the last ten to fifteen years, it has been driven by It has been driven by technology. In fact, US markets have done spectacularly better than international markets, primarily on the back of performance of MAX seven or some version of MAX seven at various points. So their profitability is extraordinarily good. Their cash flows are extraordinarily good. They are on a cash flow bench, and evaluations are high. So I think the last two factors is what you have to kind of consider more from a tactical standpoint.

From a long term.

From a long term.

Perspective, the tech sector is still a very good sector. And if you are going to participate in the market, especially in the US, participating in tech sector, which can generate outside returns is something that you absolutely have to.

Perspective, the tech sector is still a very good sector. And if you are going to participate in the market, especially in the US, participating in tech sector, which can generate outside returns is something that you absolutely have to.

Well what you just.

Well what you just.

Said there, which is classic sham of money. Do you get a lot of pushback from you know, philosophy professors and you know drama drama the head of the drama department.

Said there, which is classic sham of money. Do you get a lot of pushback from you know, philosophy professors and you know drama drama the head of the drama department.

So thankfully they are not in the weeds in the portfolio. So the answer is the answer is no. But I think what they are interested in is making sure that the college generates significant amount of return so that we can support the mission of the college. And they and they understand that to do that you have to take some amount of risk because just investing in bonds, which would be the safe way to do it, you just can't generate the sort of returns that we have to do.

So thankfully they are not in the weeds in the portfolio. So the answer is the answer is no. But I think what they are interested in is making sure that the college generates significant amount of return so that we can support the mission of the college. And they and they understand that to do that you have to take some amount of risk because just investing in bonds, which would be the safe way to do it, you just can't generate the sort of returns that we have to do.

I mean, they lost to Lehigh in basketball the other arch rivals. I mean, they clearly need to Saint John's like basketball.

I mean, they lost to Lehigh in basketball the other arch rivals. I mean, they clearly need to Saint John's like basketball.

Ricapitulagage is that.

Ricapitulagage is that.

They're paying some guy out of the seventy six ors eight million.

They're paying some guy out of the seventy six ors eight million.

Dollars a year to come exactly basketball.

Dollars a year to come exactly basketball.

So Christian, I just google Lafia College endowment about a billion dollars but on an endowment per student, very very high, yes, and that is critical for the financials the finances of a college university. What are the colleges and universities that do that don't have that endowment support.

So Christian, I just google Lafia College endowment about a billion dollars but on an endowment per student, very very high, yes, and that is critical for the financials the finances of a college university. What are the colleges and universities that do that don't have that endowment support.

I mean, that's tough, right, So that's a that's a really good question again, and we are very lucky that is. Lafayette College is a great college and the alumni are nuts in that in their support for the college and have been very very generous, and we expect they'll continue to remain very generous in their in their giving.

I mean, that's tough, right, So that's a that's a really good question again, and we are very lucky that is. Lafayette College is a great college and the alumni are nuts in that in their support for the college and have been very very generous, and we expect they'll continue to remain very generous in their in their giving.

Uh.

Uh.

The higher ed challenges is very very apparent to everyone, especially for students and parents who send their kids to college. The cost of education is definitely high. One of the primary uses of the endowment at lafa Atte College is to basically support needy students in providing financial support. We whatever we contribute. It almost matches dollar for dollar for financial aid.

The higher ed challenges is very very apparent to everyone, especially for students and parents who send their kids to college. The cost of education is definitely high. One of the primary uses of the endowment at lafa Atte College is to basically support needy students in providing financial support. We whatever we contribute. It almost matches dollar for dollar for financial aid.

That we provide. Do you lecture an engineering there? I can't.

That we provide. Do you lecture an engineering there? I can't.

I mean, Lafayette is such a tradition of engineering.

I mean, Lafayette is such a tradition of engineering.

Do you go into the classroom and yell at the students?

Do you go into the classroom and yell at the students?

I don't think the professors would like that very much. But it's a fantastic engineering program, and I think the strength of Lafayette College is it's engineering program along with the humanities. That combination is what differentiates differentiates us from a lot of our just playing liberal arts peers.

I don't think the professors would like that very much. But it's a fantastic engineering program, and I think the strength of Lafayette College is it's engineering program along with the humanities. That combination is what differentiates differentiates us from a lot of our just playing liberal arts peers.

How about Paul, that active management fee right now within the mutual fund ETF business. Katie Greifeld from Haverford was in earlier this morning.

How about Paul, that active management fee right now within the mutual fund ETF business. Katie Greifeld from Haverford was in earlier this morning.

Look at it? What seven basis points?

Look at it? What seven basis points?

Yeah, exactly seven basis points for the ETFs. What I mean that's been in a development in your career, Tom Square, my career, this growth of ETFs you, how do you guys think about that?

Yeah, exactly seven basis points for the ETFs. What I mean that's been in a development in your career, Tom Square, my career, this growth of ETFs you, how do you guys think about that?

Well, so you know, from a from a cost perspective ETFs that versus active mutual funds. That train left a long.

Well, so you know, from a from a cost perspective ETFs that versus active mutual funds. That train left a long.

Long time ago. Yeah, you were on the other train.

Long time ago. Yeah, you were on the other train.

Yes, I was on the other train at Appenhama Funds as well, and That's why Appenhamo funds got sold because I think that the flows speak the story, that is that flows into ETFs are massive and flows out of mutual funds are massive. The way we think about it is relatively simple, which is cost is certainly one component, and but returns are also a significant component as well. So in our equity portfolio, we have substantial allocation into all sorts of diversified strategies, including active funds. We have some ETFs, but we have active funds as well, and those active funds basically at the way we construct the portfolio is all of them have to contribute something something to the portfolio, but in a very benchmark aware way. We want to make sure that all of it comes back to our benchmark, which is MSCI.

Yes, I was on the other train at Appenhama Funds as well, and That's why Appenhamo funds got sold because I think that the flows speak the story, that is that flows into ETFs are massive and flows out of mutual funds are massive. The way we think about it is relatively simple, which is cost is certainly one component, and but returns are also a significant component as well. So in our equity portfolio, we have substantial allocation into all sorts of diversified strategies, including active funds. We have some ETFs, but we have active funds as well, and those active funds basically at the way we construct the portfolio is all of them have to contribute something something to the portfolio, but in a very benchmark aware way. We want to make sure that all of it comes back to our benchmark, which is MSCI.

Aqui do you have a position in gold?

Aqui do you have a position in gold?

No, we do not have a position. Why well, so you know, again, in our construct of seventy percent equities thirty percent bombs, assets like gold just don't fit into that picture. So it would be a speculative bet, and we we just have decided that we'll stick to our knitting things that we know where managers we can evaluate and not take on that additional volatile.

No, we do not have a position. Why well, so you know, again, in our construct of seventy percent equities thirty percent bombs, assets like gold just don't fit into that picture. So it would be a speculative bet, and we we just have decided that we'll stick to our knitting things that we know where managers we can evaluate and not take on that additional volatile.

I know what it is.

I know what it is.

But the last six months or so, I mean in Bloomberg Surveillance, in Nexus at Philadelphia Schools, Lehigh, Lafayette, Haverford, Yep, BRNMAR They're all been represented.

But the last six months or so, I mean in Bloomberg Surveillance, in Nexus at Philadelphia Schools, Lehigh, Lafayette, Haverford, Yep, BRNMAR They're all been represented.

Yeah, this has been wonderful.

Yeah, this has been wonderful.

Thank you so much for coming in. Thank you at Oppenheimer and Invesco just legendary decided to go off and manage what Paul billion dollars?

Thank you so much for coming in. Thank you at Oppenheimer and Invesco just legendary decided to go off and manage what Paul billion dollars?

Yeah? Nice, it's only working a twenty eight dollars work, you know, that's physical. That's it gets three months off. Are you paying houses.

Yeah? Nice, it's only working a twenty eight dollars work, you know, that's physical. That's it gets three months off. Are you paying houses.

Journey summer time exactly, Christian.

Journey summer time exactly, Christian.

Thank you so much.

Thank you so much.

Wonderful to have you, and don't be a stranger as well.

Wonderful to have you, and don't be a stranger as well.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

There you look at the front pages as we stagger to the weekend with Lisa Matteo.

There you look at the front pages as we stagger to the weekend with Lisa Matteo.

Lisa, what do you have?

Lisa, what do you have?

All right?

All right?

We're talking streaming, Okay, So analysts are saying that forget those standalone streaming services. They say, the mega bundle is what's gonna happen.

We're talking streaming, Okay, So analysts are saying that forget those standalone streaming services. They say, the mega bundle is what's gonna happen.

This is the way to go.

This is the way to go.

They're saying, what a Brother Discovery, Disney paramount. They have to return to that wholesale business rather than continuing to build on those direct to consumer products. So they say this mega streaming bundle distributed by Apple, Amazon, Google or cable companies like Comcast.

They're saying, what a Brother Discovery, Disney paramount. They have to return to that wholesale business rather than continuing to build on those direct to consumer products. So they say this mega streaming bundle distributed by Apple, Amazon, Google or cable companies like Comcast.

They say, that's the way to go.

They say, that's the way to go.

I think there's gotta be something here. It's just the delivery mechanisms is we just nobody knows what they're paying for it, and nobody knows what they really have in the What's really interesting is it used to be almost impossible to cancel your cable subscription. Now you just click a button and you're off of your streaming service, no friction.

I think there's gotta be something here. It's just the delivery mechanisms is we just nobody knows what they're paying for it, and nobody knows what they really have in the What's really interesting is it used to be almost impossible to cancel your cable subscription. Now you just click a button and you're off of your streaming service, no friction.

Well like the sports thing that we saw, is there any evidence people want a bundled streaming subscription?

Well like the sports thing that we saw, is there any evidence people want a bundled streaming subscription?

Probably do.

Probably do.

They probably do bundles work. They worked for seventy years. You know, I'm not sure what well.

They probably do bundles work. They worked for seventy years. You know, I'm not sure what well.

You a Disney part of me with Warner Brothers, Discovery, like the Disney, Hulu, Max hold Yep Combo.

You a Disney part of me with Warner Brothers, Discovery, like the Disney, Hulu, Max hold Yep Combo.

Now, yeah, it's a mess.

Now, yeah, it's a mess.

But they say, one company who doesn't need to bundle is Netflix, but the bundling could give Netflix some competition. Then finally, yeah, yeah, potentially who knows who knows next? Okay, the head of the NFL. So you have NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell saying he is standing behind diversity initiatives despite the President's moved against DEI. We've been hearing a lot about this lately. He says, their efforts are fundamental. They've made the NFL better, shows that they give them different perspectives. So that's what he's saying.

But they say, one company who doesn't need to bundle is Netflix, but the bundling could give Netflix some competition. Then finally, yeah, yeah, potentially who knows who knows next? Okay, the head of the NFL. So you have NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell saying he is standing behind diversity initiatives despite the President's moved against DEI. We've been hearing a lot about this lately. He says, their efforts are fundamental. They've made the NFL better, shows that they give them different perspectives. So that's what he's saying.

They just to break.

They just to break.

Down the rules for those of you who are not familiar. It requires each team with an ongoing key position to have these in person interviews with at least two minority candidates from outside the organization. But the thing is, there's controversy behind it because some people are saying they're just bringing them in just to go with the regulations and for show exactly and not going along with I've.

Down the rules for those of you who are not familiar. It requires each team with an ongoing key position to have these in person interviews with at least two minority candidates from outside the organization. But the thing is, there's controversy behind it because some people are saying they're just bringing them in just to go with the regulations and for show exactly and not going along with I've.

Seen a little bit of pushback from the President. Selected let's change, change, change everything. There's selected companies. I think JP Morgan is staying with the thing.

Seen a little bit of pushback from the President. Selected let's change, change, change everything. There's selected companies. I think JP Morgan is staying with the thing.

But the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, he was hired in large part due to the ruining rule, which is refurther Okay, yeah, Mike Tomlin, Yep, thanks, there you go.

But the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, he was hired in large part due to the ruining rule, which is refurther Okay, yeah, Mike Tomlin, Yep, thanks, there you go.

All right, we'll take you from professional sports to high school sports.

All right, we'll take you from professional sports to high school sports.

This one stood out to me.

This one stood out to me.

More athletes are signing endorsement deals before their senior prom Okay, so let me just put in perspective. No, I wish so Indetas they named a star baseball shortstop its newest big name endorser. He's from Stillwater High School in Oklahoma. Okay, he's likely the number one pick this year's MLB draft though he's seventeen years old. But this is some new data out. It's open doors, they say. Forty state high school associations in the US they allow students to sign these nil deals.

More athletes are signing endorsement deals before their senior prom Okay, so let me just put in perspective. No, I wish so Indetas they named a star baseball shortstop its newest big name endorser. He's from Stillwater High School in Oklahoma. Okay, he's likely the number one pick this year's MLB draft though he's seventeen years old. But this is some new data out. It's open doors, they say. Forty state high school associations in the US they allow students to sign these nil deals.

We're gonna rip up the script your first, Lisa, you have a gifted offspring who's in the mix of this.

We're gonna rip up the script your first, Lisa, you have a gifted offspring who's in the mix of this.

What do you think?

What do you think?

I personally think they should wait until after they're done with high school. I think it's too much distraction amongst everything.

I personally think they should wait until after they're done with high school. I think it's too much distraction amongst everything.

They're high school kids, Paul, are going to have deals before they go to Duke?

They're high school kids, Paul, are going to have deals before they go to Duke?

Yes, yes, absolutely, And here's just some numbers. Brands. Brands spent three hundred and thirty eight million dollars on nil deals two student athletes last year, primarily college students. That's up from one hundred and seventy one million twenty twenty three. Just to show you the growth there.

Yes, yes, absolutely, And here's just some numbers. Brands. Brands spent three hundred and thirty eight million dollars on nil deals two student athletes last year, primarily college students. That's up from one hundred and seventy one million twenty twenty three. Just to show you the growth there.

Yeah, and how much you're getting paid. Okay, so these top high school athletes can earn between five hundred two thousand dollars for one social media post. Some of them, though, the superviarers make upwards of six figures multi year endorsements.