Surveillance: Tight Spreads with Athey

Published Aug 17, 2023, 1:25 PM

James Athey, Abrdn Investment Director, says credit spread are too tight. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, still expects a recession and for equities to come down. Susan Thornton, Yale University Law School Paul Tsai China Center Senior Fellow, says China needs households to start spending. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst and Assistant Director of Research, discusses Walmart lifting its profit outlook on a boost from US shoppers. 

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

I'm Lisa A.

Bromwoid's along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance un demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.

Let's just get to James Apia in London, investment director over at Aberdeen. James, great to catch up with you. It's like the question of the week. What's it all about, James? What's behind this bond market move?

Hey? John?

Yeah, I mean it's a good question. It's been a very strange few trading days. We had stronger US data and the market seemingly couldn't sell off at all, and then we've seemingly got these kind of random sell offs out of nowhere with not much behind them.

I mean, Larry Summer's there.

I agree with you that it's all a bit spurious, some false accuracy in there, but I think that term premium element is certainly part of it. But if you look at the equity market eleven percent earnings growth price for twelve months ahead in the SMP and trading at twenty times roughly, that looks like a pretty nice, if not soft landing. Yet you've got this massive inversion in the bond yield curve.

One of those is wrong, and it.

Looks like they're kind of converging from both directions, which is probably reasonable given the data we're seen in the US.

Does it make sense to you, James, that we're seeing risk acids hold in there despite some of the moves that we're seeing in Birchmark bond yields.

Is that a loaded question, Lisa, because you and I tend to be the only bears that are speaking perfectly. Yeah, Mary, I found it difficult to explain or justify really that rally in the equity market from a fundamental or from a probability weighted, risk adjusted basis. It looked like there was a lot of short covering in that in spite of the fact that obviously the economic news has been has been better than expected. So I am generally surprised at how well equities can ignore some of the macro drivers. But it's hard to pick holes in for example, retail sales data this week. It's hard to try and claim that the consumer is on the precipice when the splending numbers are strong as that. And so while ever the data is okay, I think equities can hang in there.

What about credit? We were talking about how narrow credit spreads were, and we were talking with one of Caesar about how much companies have readjusted to prolong some of their payment structures and increase their cash or up their ability to maintain themselves through this period. Are you getting bullish uncredit or do you think that it's over its skis? How do you sort of rationalize?

Well, so, I think spreads are too tight.

Broadly speaking, I don't think you're really being accurately compensated for the likely default risk. You can see that realize, defaults in most countries and regions have been ticking up to a far greater degree than we've been used to. So I don't think the spread component is necessarily attractive. But what the balls and a lot of credit guys will tell you is that the all in yield is very attractive, obviously because of the cheapness of underlying government bond shields.

I think that's reasonable.

So I think if you're being selective and choosing high quality corporate credits, you've probably got some nice investment opportunities there. One of the really interesting charts that I've seen recently has been that a lot of companies have actually benefited from higher rates.

You know, they engaged in.

Precautionary borrowing sort for five or seven years when rates were low, and now they get to part that cash at the deposit rate or at cash rates which are five five and a half percent, and so in spite of this monetary tightening, it's actually generating positive cash flow for a lot of these cash rich corporates.

Hey, James, we've talked about this kind of stuff before, but there's often a geographic regional bias on certain issues. If you ask someone in New York on Wall Street about China, shrugger the shoulders, and the stereotype would be for the boomers at least tell me where the Dow is and move on with life. In London, there's a much more nuanced view about Macro and China specifically. James, what's the view on China right now in the city.

Yeah, I mean, I think people are nervous slash cautious, but to be honest, as is often the case, you know, most folks are biased to believe that we will see what we have seen, and that is when China has a bit of a wobble, we should just expect quote unquote stimulus and that'll lead to a positive reaction from markets. So it's not something that people are really kind of looking to play as a macro theme. And the door doesn't swing both ways. When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. The US is a massive consumer with a huge current account deficit. China really is consuming domestically and exporting a lot, and so it's not the same linkage. But you are seeing I think places like Australia and Germany likely to struggle going forward, But most people I think want to buy dollar see and h as an expression of China concerns.

Maybe sell the Aussie dollar, but not much else.

So James, with that in mind, are we thinking about it the wrong way round? Not how China influences the US, but how the US influences China, given what's happened with real rates and what could happen with a dollar going forward from here?

Yeah, to a very great degree, and you can see the Chinese policymakers, the PBOC really trying to offset this weakness in the UN. I guess they're worried about a similar situation to twenty fifteen, emerging and capital flight and creating bigger stability problems for themselves. But they are fighting what looks to be a pretty losing battle because the US data is just holding up that much better than everywhere else. And so in spite of the market desperate to trade carry to trade risk on the US dollar really is just starting to generate a bit of upward momentum because we are I think we are in a US exceptionalism world, at least for now, and that does create problems globally.

It does create problems for dollar borrowers.

We know that.

So what are you doing right now, given the fact that some people are saying we're at an inflection point?

Do you believe that?

Are you shifting some of your allocations in response?

I mean, I've been saying that we're on the precipice of an inflection for quite some time. And sometimes you look really clever and sometimes you look really stupid. It's been that kind of environment. Bare ball flatter steepner. We've had it all over the last eight weeks. I do think Europe is starting to show its true colors. They've got structural weakness and cyclical headwinds now because of policy and the pandemic effects subsiding, So increase a bit ofituation there. And I think the USUL curve, I think there's a good chance it can steep in both ways. I think it can bear steepen in a soft landing, it can ball steep and if the data disappoints, you know, I love an asymmetric position, so adding to steepening risk and actually been paying US five year five year because that looks really low. And if we get a bear steepener that should rock it higher. But beyond that, it's quite difficult, still trying to cling on to the more medium term positions, generally being defensive and hoping that the forward looking indicators will give us an accurate indication.

And that suggests things will get worse from here.

You mentioned a short squeeze. How much have the shorts been squeezed out? How much are people really long this equity market at a time or where there are some real questions.

I mean It's always difficult to say with any degree of accuracy, but if you look at surveys, if you look at sort of FMS, Heartnet's flow Show type stuff from Bamel, and you look at various other indicators and surveys that we would look at, it does suggest that there has been a shift. Sentiment has shifted away from expecting a recession actually to the majority of people, not from people being underweight or short equities and decent size, to people being neutral to long. I think from a quantitative perspective that the CTA is the vole control of the risk parity. These guys have not only been buying on rising prices, but they've been adding gross risk because of falling implied volatility. So I do think we're getting to that stage where most folk are now on the other side of the boat.

That suggests it should take less to tip us over.

I love the Flow Show note Michael Hartnett. It's one of my favorites. And on Friday, James, thank you love the new dress code over at Aberdeen as well, James athey there of Aberdeen. Let's get the conversation started on China. We can do that with Susan Thorden from Yale University Law School. Susan, wonderful to have you with us on the program. I think we've always given the Chinese policymaker the benefit of doubt that they can resolve these issues in an orderly way. Is there any reason to believe it is different this time?

Well, I think there are a couple of things going on here. One is they're running into structural economic problems.

Right.

We've seen them trying to reform over the years, and they've obviously run into a lot of difficulty with that. And then you see the lack of confidence and the faltering and trust in the economic officials and the Chinese leadership after the COVID lockdowns and then the unwinding of COVID in China, and so I think we're really looking at a kind of a loss of confidence on the part of both Chinese participants in the Chinese economy and also foreign participants.

We heard from the State Council today they promised to meet annual economic targets through quote targeted and forceful macroeconomic adjustments. Susan, what does that actually mean? What leavers do they have to restore confidence? As you say, there's been absolutely hammered over the last few years.

Yeah, well, they've been struggling to try to find policy responses that are going to actually bring about what they need, which is they need households to start spending. And this has been a problem in the Chinese economy going way back. They've got the highest level of sort of savings in China and they can't seem to unlock that from households, and so I think what we've seen is they've tried to kind of lower interest rates, They've tried to push out, you know, tiny bits of stimulus, but they're loath to kind of push out a lot of stimulus because they've got a problem in the housing sector, in the real estate sector, and so I think they're really limited. I think what they probably need to do is to try to give some confidence back to the private sector, which is really sitting on the sidelines at this point looking to see what's going to happen and lost confidence.

Part of this is international as well, because there was a lot of international investment from US, from European companies. We've seen an increasing number of US companies pull back just a bit or significantly. How much do the Chinese authorities want to see some of those international businesses come back versus embrace the isolation, the sort of domestic focus that seems to be a more front and center.

Yeah, I think you really see them trying to do everything they can to encourage foreign businesses and foreign direct investments to come back into China. You know, it's been a tough five years for foreign businesses trying to work in China. I mean not just not just COVID, but all of this slew of regulations that have come out a lot of kind of chilling rules and laws that have been passed, especially on cross border data flows. It's been very hard for companies to deal with trying to get the data that they depend on to do their businesses, in many cases back and forth across the border. And so there's just been a whole slew of problems that have kept people kind of wondering what they should be doing about their China business and how they should be looking at this market long term.

With all your years experience as a diplomat for the US to a host of Asian nations, I'm wondering if the economic difficulties that China is facing makes it more or less difficult for the US to negotiate. In other words, does the US have more leverage or less leverage as a result.

Well, I think what I've seen since the Chinese have really started to face up to the fact that the economy is not going to bounce back after COVID the way they were talking about initially. There's really been a big change, and I think sort of mindset about the need to maintain connectedness with the rest of the world economy. And I think there was a question about that at one point earlier, and there may still be a division inside the Chinese leadership on this, but certainly the technocrat economic experts in the Chinese government understand that the Chinese economy needs to maintain those connections Susan.

Last week, the President of the United States referred to the Chinese economy as a taking time bomb. He referred to some government ofs is bad folks, and he said, when bad things start to happen, bad folks do bad things. Susan, what do you reckon he meant by that just last week.

Well, it's very hard for me to get inside the head of leaders when they say things Hi Jinpang or Joe Biden, But My sense is that what he means is that the Chinese economy is not as impregnable as we've been thinking, that there could be real risks here, and that you know, the Chinese economy is really important to the sort of stability and psychology and internal kind of predictability of the Chinese state and the Chinese leadership. And so I think what he meant is that, you know, if the Chinese economy isn't going to be doing well, then the whole Chinese government is going to be getting more desperate, and we may see things that we know might not otherwise see. And I think he's worried about some kind of incident or accident. It might cause some kind of conflict or crisis that we wouldn't normally see if the Chinese were more confident than they are now.

Susan, I have a failum. We'll be talking again soon. Susan's thoughts in there of the University law.

School, we've been asking a lot of questions around how long the retailer can keep going, how long the consumer can keep spending, whether they're running out of cash, whether they're going to be challenged by some of their student loan payments, Matt Lazetti has been upgrading his expectation for growth in the US. He has been spot on pushing out his Recession call. Chief you as economist at Deutsche Bank, joining us here in the studio.

Matt just first.

Read and what we've seen in terms of retailers, the strength the labor market not cracking. Is this an economy that can subsist with rates where they are for a very long time?

Look, I think right now it looks like the answers yes, in the near term. We just upgraded our Q three growth forecast to above three percent. You know, everybody was anticipating, I think including the Fed, as we saw in the minutes yesterday, that you would see this second half of the year growth slow down, that you're beginning to see rates bite, that the tightening of financial conditions and bank lining conditions was going to be impact in the economy. What it looks like we've seen with the data so far now it's only a very little bit of data for Q three is an acceleration for the consumer, for industrial production. It goes against certainly what we were anticipating at this point in time and raises really important questions I think for the FED one.

Of the questions, and John asked it earlier. Are rates restrictive currently? How do we even know if they are restrictive?

Yeah, I think the way that we typically view that is, you know, either through real rates. The FED leans very heavily on real rates, and there we are seeing very significant increases in that. You know, ten year reel yields at many year highs. I look at if you look five for or five year real ois, so some a measure of what our star type estimates are. All of these things have been rising pretty substantially. But then when you translated into financial conditions, it's not obviously that things are too tight. Most financial conditions into these are loose, have been loosening. The one area where there's tightness is bank lending conditions, but we haven't seen that impact the economy as of yet.

So just taking a step back for a second before we get to the nitty gritty and I ask you best student loan repayments and all sorts of other issues that are capturing people's attentions.

There is a question of.

Whether this is long and variable lags, or if this is companies that have pushed out the maturities consumers that have pushed out their maturities, and a lot of resilience at a time where consumers keep spending. Is this an economy that can keep humming along even if the ten year rate continues to go up, even if we see four point three percent on a sustainable basis.

Yeah, So our baseline is no, you know, we still have this mild recession in the forecast, that we still think the bank lending condition tightening, that we've seen the real rates that we've seen, some of the headwinds for the consumers that are coming up, the student debt payments, a slowing labor market, you're seeing rising delinquencies within the consumer for both credit cards and autos, And so our baseline is no, that you know, this is an acceleration, but it'll be short term. Eventually you'll see monetary policy tightening take hold. But on the other side, you know, we're being surprised by the data here, and when you look at the incoming data for the labor market, obviously initial jobless claims not showing any uptick, any softening there. Where you're seeing in the retail sales report is broad based. Consumer confidence is picking up a little bit, so there are you know, some elements there which make you a little bit more cautious or in terms of thinking about that slow down in the economy.

What do you have to see to change your view?

So I think you know to go fully towards the soft landing, and I think we've been noting the prospects that have been rising.

Here.

You need a few things. I think you actually do need to see the economy slow. And the reason that you need to see the economy slow is because the Fed has been very adamant that if it doesn't, they think that they have more work to do and that they can't have confidence that inflation is going to come down to target. We heard that from pal at the July fome C, meaning I thought we heard it, and that was the big takeaway from yesterday that they need to see a slowing economy in order to get confidence that inflation is coming down. So I think you need that. You need to see wage and price pressures coming off. We're seeing some evidence of that the last you know, two inflation or some CPI have been very supportive. The PC report next week will be a little bit less so, but I think that's what you need. We're not getting that evidence on the growth front as of yet, and so I would anticipate from PAL probably next week. Jackson Hole from the FED that they lean into a hawkish bias still, that the September SCP probably still shows some idea of rate hikes in the profile, and then more importantly that they will probably hold that for even longer than anticipating.

Let's talk about some of the potential drivers for weakness that might take hold next year. It's what everyone's been expecting, and they've been saying this for quite a while, so we'll put that as a Caveat student loan repayments, this has been a hotly debated topic, with some people coming out and saying, well, you know, if students don't want to pay, or former students don't want to pay, they don't have to. They're not going to be penalized for twelve months, and other people saying, well, you know they're going to try and they're going to have to pay back eventually. It'll crimp their discretionary spending. Where do you fall on.

This, Yeah, so we think we've thought that it's going to be this meaningful head winto the consumer. If you look at student debt payments in the daily Treasury account, they're down about seventy billion dollars relatives where we thought they would have been, So that's a meaningful hit to consumer income if it gets paid in full. There's been certainly programs there that are trying to alleviate some of the pressure on consumers in terms of paying that over the next year or so. But we can track it on a daily basis, and if you look at the Treasury daily account, you are seeing a meaningful uptick in payments taking place. So people are paying down their student debt that we're not doing so previously. But my guess is that the impact is going to be less than anticipated or less than it was previously, simply because there are these programs that are trying to take away some of the pain.

We speaking with Matt Zeti, chief US economist over at Deutsche Bank at a time where we're seeing strength pretty much across the board. We got reports out of retailers including Walmart, Tapestry, Target yesterday, all of them showing strength in the consumer spending. Are you seeing any evidence that people are wholesale pulling back or not able to spend with such profligacy of the recent past.

Yeah, I think, you know, some things that you would would point to are are not primary but kind of secondary. So there's you know, evidence that that excess savings have been drawn down. The San Francisco Fed put out a piece just this week saying that that it'll be gone in Q three.

The current talking about this forever, have you even saying it's going to run out, It's going to run out and never does.

So that that part, you know, our view is always to the back half of this year, at the end of this year, and so I think that part is coming to fruition. I think you're seeing the evidence of that through. You know, you saw rising credit card borrowing, you're seeing rising delinquencies. You know those are now higher for autos and credit cards than they were before the pandemic, and so there are some strains there now. Obviously, so far that has not translated into retail sales data. It has in chart translated into the high frequency credit card spending data that we've seen, and so so far there's not evidence of that. You know, obviously, the big question is can that continue to run even as you have credit card debt picking up? You have delinquencies, rising strains are there, Excess savings come down, student debt payments come back again. Are baseline is that it can run forever and that you'll see a slowdown that takes place, But the data have surprised the upside.

Everything that we're talking about almost presumes American exceptionalism, that the US economy can remain divorced from everything else that's been going on elsewhere. And I think about China, and every morning we come in and we open with China and we discuss everything that's happened in the weakening there. When you look at the connections between the world's two biggest economies, how divorced is the US from catching a cold from what China seems to be experiencing right now?

Yeah, maybe through two channels. I think directly economically, as we look at the US economy today, I think it is primarily domestically driven. It's about the services economy. It's about the US consumer and whether or not, you know, Chinese consumers is strong and that environment is less relevant, so that that direct economic impact to the US I think is probably more muted. Where I think it can have important linkages is through financial markets. And I think, you know, some of the risk of version that we're seeing is certainly being driven by by what we're hearing in the daily headlines that you get out of China. If it is to impact the US economy more significantly, I think it has to be through financial markets that you get turmoil that takes place there. I think it's an interesting question. We talk about high real yields. High yields maybe not impacting the US consumers much, but perhaps where we're seeing it is more on the global sphere, and that that's where it's beginning to bite, and maybe they will be spillovers, but through financial markets.

And this is the reason why people are wondering whether things are getting close to a breaking point at a time where the fundamental economy seems to be doing just fine. How closely do you watch that the financial transmission mechanisms, the surveys that come out, but also just some of the fissures happening on the global market sphere.

I think you have to follow financial conditions, however you might define them very very closely. I think we always, you know, part of the reason that we anticipate, or people are anticipating, we can get the soft landing is because you're getting the economic data take place. You're gaining to FED that was hawkish and raise rates very substantially, but financial conditions have not fallen apart. I think if you see equities come down, credit spreads widen, you know, the vics come up, financial conditions tighten in a sharp and aggressive way. That often leads to very quick changes in narratives. And so if you get that taking place, for whatever the reason might be, I think you'll see kind of a downgrade of soft landing prospects.

What do you think people are getting most wrong right now?

It's a difficult environment. You know, if the economy is actually accelerating, then that is certainly I think one that that's that that is is getting wrong on our baseline. You know, we still think that you have a recession. That is not the prevailing narrative in the market right now, even if it's you know, the baseline for most economists. So I think if you get that, you know, the correction markets that we would need to see would be pretty substantial. The extent of FED rate cuts next year would be far more substantial than what the market is pricing.

Mala Zeti a chief US economist joining us here over at Deutsche Bag.

One company that's doing well Walmart, once again raising its annual profit forecast. This for the second straight quarter. The stock is high here by about one point one percent, better numbers, a beat on the top and bottom line, and a raise to the outlook as well. Joe Fouden joins us now the SITY research analyst and Assistant director of Research at Taosi Advisory Group. Joe, great to catch up with you, sir, and good to continue this conversation on US retail. We asked the question, I know you've got the answers. If Walmart is doing well, what about everybody else?

Yeah, you know, it really does reflect that there could be some concern for other parts of the economy. You know, we continue to see the high end doing well, the low end is seeking value, the middle income consumer has been trading down and seeking value, and now we've seen that with Walmart. You know, Amazon recently have very good results and even Target yesterday, you know, their food and consumable side of the business was pretty healthy and people were trading down there in that area. So you know, we're seeing increased traffic at Walmart. You're seeing higher sales of groceries and basic items and consumables, So you know, the consumer is still putting food on the table and that's an area of focus. But discretionary has been soft, that's for sure, Joe.

How much clarity have you got on where marches are going to be over the next couple of quarters.

Yeah, you know, I'll tell you. Walmart keeps putting up better margines than expect it. You know that. I think the lower freight costs are helping, and that's helping all of retail. Remember a year ago, two years ago, freight costs were through the roof, especially ocean freight, and that's come down quite a bit, So that's actually helping to provide a little bit of a tail in and give some confidence I think for Walmart and others to raise numbers for the back half. I mean, others are not doing that, but Walmart, for sure. You know, the raise that they gave is just really that confident in the fact that they're getting the traffic, they're getting the sales on the top line, and you know they really they are getting the profitability they need to drop to the bottom line.

Joe.

When you look beyond Walmart, when you look beyond target, when you take a look at other retailers, do you have a sense of discretionary spending money that people have parked in the bank. Do you have a sense of whether consumers are running out or whether they're doing just fine.

Her few is that the consumer is under some pressure and they have some money to spend, but it's only in pockets. So if you've planned a trip and you're going to Europe or you go in other parts of the US, or if you've planned a big event, you know you're going to Taylor Swift concert, you know that might take up a good chunk of your discretionary dollars that you would otherwise have spent on some goods. And I think during the pandemic when we saw people spending a lot on goods, especially home and coming out of it, you saw a lot of spend on a parrel last year that those dollars that kind of shifted elsewhere. So, you know, we've looked at credit. I know consumer credit has been rising, but not to alarming levels as of yet, and so the consumer is out there and able to spend. At the moment. You know, wage growth is still pretty solid, employment levels are good, but they're not spending broadly. They're just spending within different silos. Obviously food is one of them. But right now services going out to eat, while that is starting to moderate, you know, they are they have been spending there versus goods.

This sounds prudent, This sounds like good balance sheet management. This sounds like actually responsible consumer spending habits. Doesn't it seem sustainable and doesn't really speak to some sort of broad slow down in retailing that a lot of people say has to happen, or consumer spending that has to happen for the US economy to soften.

Yeah, I think that's a fair statement. You know, I think that, you know, when you look at retail broadly, you know, again, anybody offering value, those catering to essential goods are doing well. You know, where there was a lot of pull forward of demand during the pandemic. We're still in a normalization phase coming off of that, and I think the consumer has been very prudent with how they've been spending, and you know, we're hopeful that we're going to have a solid back half and a decent holiday season. We'll hear more from Walmart when they speak in a few minutes, But you know, it just seems that the consumer has been more resilient than I think a lot of us have given credit at this point in the year.

Before you run off for that call, and I know you've got to listen to that. Target. Yesterday said this Joe, that the resumption of student loan repayments would cause additional pressure on strained consumer budgets. Lisa has been saying this all week. The White House instituted a twelve month on ramp. Are they just setting up a decent thing to blame later on this year? Joe, what's your read on that?

Yeah, well, you know, so we did a deep dive report on this and an analysis of student loan debt, and you know, there's seventeen percent of the US adult population has student loans, federal student loans that are going to have to start being paid back. Now it won't be penalized perhaps for a year, so there's a little bit of a grace period. But you know, our thought process on this was that again that middle income, middle to upper is where you start to see more of that pressure. Those are the people that do have the student loans. Target's customer is really that customer, and so we called out in our report that we thought Target was among those that might see a little more of an impact from student loans. Maybe less so at a place like Walmart, which sells so much grocery and people have been trading down and seeking value. You don't quite have that at a Target. So I think there is some reality there. I don't think the student loan thing will be broad based for everybody. Again, you know, the very high end won't be a bit an issue, and then that really the low end doesn't. It may not be as much of an issue either. It's really the middle of it. Once again, it's going to get squeezed on.

This, Joe.

I'm just curious where we are in some of the durable goods sectors, which a lot of people are wondering how long can keep contracting. Are we at a point an inflection point to the other direction where suddenly people are starting to go back to things that they shunned after the mass bingebig during the pandemic.

You know, we started to see through the summer some early signs that you might be seeing a little bit of a shift from the services back towards goods. And we're hopeful that that will continue into the fall, and you know, holiday will come, Christmas will come, kids will get gifts, you know, so that spending will happen. We're hoping that that shift is a little bit more aggressive back towards the goods on the retail side of the sector. But it seems again that there are some initial green green shoots there that the good spending might start to come back.

I thought you're going to break canto a Christmas soft. Kids will get gifts. I hope they get gif well, maybe get some of the tree jock. Thank you, Jeff Faudman, a Tassi Advisory.

Great Subscribe the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your PODCAS casts listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is Bloomberg

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