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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

The single best idea, of course it would be after the fact, but tune into the FED to Sides this afternoon, which is a show we invented to just say let's have good conversation around a FED meeting. I remember when, you know, the first time we put it together ages ago. I think Scarlett Foo was with me at the time, and the basic idea was there's a lot of different opinions. I can't remember a time where there's more people swing in one way and more people swing in the other way that we see right now. And I would codify it in economics with Tom Percelli, who was on today with p Jim who said, look, they're going to cut rates. They have to cut rates, and he gave four reasons, and Lindsay piegsa At Stiefel, who says they're wrong. They need to get out front, raise rays, clamped this thing down, stopped this inflation trend, and then bring them down. And that's what we're trying to do at surveillance. We'll see if we can effort them for conversation next week or even the week on a single best idea today, two really different views here. The first one is Stuart Kaiser. Stuart Kaiser's a city group. He has been not a rabbid bull, but he's been someone that said, here's the framework for American exceptionalism, American GDP, and it's going to lead into higher stock prices. He looks at the broadening of the market and he says in earning season, it's tough to get the data right.

The single best idea, of course it would be after the fact, but tune into the FED to Sides this afternoon, which is a show we invented to just say let's have good conversation around a FED meeting. I remember when, you know, the first time we put it together ages ago. I think Scarlett Foo was with me at the time, and the basic idea was there's a lot of different opinions. I can't remember a time where there's more people swing in one way and more people swing in the other way that we see right now. And I would codify it in economics with Tom Percelli, who was on today with p Jim who said, look, they're going to cut rates. They have to cut rates, and he gave four reasons, and Lindsay piegsa At Stiefel, who says they're wrong. They need to get out front, raise rays, clamped this thing down, stopped this inflation trend, and then bring them down. And that's what we're trying to do at surveillance. We'll see if we can effort them for conversation next week or even the week on a single best idea today, two really different views here. The first one is Stuart Kaiser. Stuart Kaiser's a city group. He has been not a rabbid bull, but he's been someone that said, here's the framework for American exceptionalism, American GDP, and it's going to lead into higher stock prices. He looks at the broadening of the market and he says in earning season, it's tough to get the data right.

The problem with the broadening theme for US has been it doesn't work in two conditions, one when you have risk rising and two, frankly during earnings because the fact is your Microsoft's, your Apples, your Amazons, your Google's are just putting up huge numbers. It harkens back a little bit to the late nineties when you were basically introducing a new technology into the system and you assumed a forecasts really large revenue growth, but you were a little on certain about, you know, both the size and timing of it. So I think what you're having is to your point, people are compartmentalizing a little bit, right, Like, I need to have some AI exposure on let me choose the way to do that, and then off to the side of that, I kind of need to model the rest of the market, you know, as a little bit independently. So it is a challenge, but it's a good challenge to have, right I think it's a good challenge to have that you have this large thematic revenue growth impulse kind of coming through the system and look at this is why you know, we've kind of joked the Nvidia earnings report in late May is priced as big an event as payrolls on Friday. Not only is it a big theme, it's also an uncertain theme. And even at the S and P level, that risk is being priced very aggressibly.

The problem with the broadening theme for US has been it doesn't work in two conditions, one when you have risk rising and two, frankly during earnings because the fact is your Microsoft's, your Apples, your Amazons, your Google's are just putting up huge numbers. It harkens back a little bit to the late nineties when you were basically introducing a new technology into the system and you assumed a forecasts really large revenue growth, but you were a little on certain about, you know, both the size and timing of it. So I think what you're having is to your point, people are compartmentalizing a little bit, right, Like, I need to have some AI exposure on let me choose the way to do that, and then off to the side of that, I kind of need to model the rest of the market, you know, as a little bit independently. So it is a challenge, but it's a good challenge to have, right I think it's a good challenge to have that you have this large thematic revenue growth impulse kind of coming through the system and look at this is why you know, we've kind of joked the Nvidia earnings report in late May is priced as big an event as payrolls on Friday. Not only is it a big theme, it's also an uncertain theme. And even at the S and P level, that risk is being priced very aggressibly.

Stud Kaiser City Group. There very sharp, huge response today and we'll get them back soon. I really want to emphasize that in the earning season we're in, there's different metrics that I hear and they come into vogue, that come out of vogue, and one of them off the tech juggernaut we've seen so far with Apple tomorrow is not organic revenue growth, which I think is pretty intuitive. It's like, okay, here's the company. Forget about acquisitions and all that, what's the actual interior revenue growth of the company. And of course, Coca Cola with a blowout eleven percent statistic. But one to start looking at is annual recurring revenue aar R. Somebody had this out on Twitter. I'm sorry, I can't cite them. I don't have it in front of me. But aarr is really really interesting about what's the belief in what a recurring revenue is at Google or at Amazon, or what we'll see from Apple, where there's a huge mystery about their recurring at revenue. That's a phrase, excuse me, I'm fighting a plague. That's a phrase that I think you really got to get used to in a two thousand and twenty five. You also get used to people with a venerable pass. Brian Whalen is at TCW. They're a ginormous West Coast Byside institution, lots of penchip, lots of institutional money. And he's in fixed income. And what's important is he was in the trenches at DLJ Donaldson, Lufkin, Jenarett, ages Ago, and so he brings a huge knowledge base of fixed income dynamics. And he's where I am, and where I am doesn't matter, but it really matters if Ken Rogoff of Harvard's at the same place. Ken Rogoff with David Wesson looked for that on Wall Street Week and Professor Rogoff was adamant. He's focused on the inflation adjusted yields plural and I totally agree with this that what we really care about, including Jerome Poal this afternoon, is an analysis of the real yield. Brian Whalen of TCW on the.

Stud Kaiser City Group. There very sharp, huge response today and we'll get them back soon. I really want to emphasize that in the earning season we're in, there's different metrics that I hear and they come into vogue, that come out of vogue, and one of them off the tech juggernaut we've seen so far with Apple tomorrow is not organic revenue growth, which I think is pretty intuitive. It's like, okay, here's the company. Forget about acquisitions and all that, what's the actual interior revenue growth of the company. And of course, Coca Cola with a blowout eleven percent statistic. But one to start looking at is annual recurring revenue aar R. Somebody had this out on Twitter. I'm sorry, I can't cite them. I don't have it in front of me. But aarr is really really interesting about what's the belief in what a recurring revenue is at Google or at Amazon, or what we'll see from Apple, where there's a huge mystery about their recurring at revenue. That's a phrase, excuse me, I'm fighting a plague. That's a phrase that I think you really got to get used to in a two thousand and twenty five. You also get used to people with a venerable pass. Brian Whalen is at TCW. They're a ginormous West Coast Byside institution, lots of penchip, lots of institutional money. And he's in fixed income. And what's important is he was in the trenches at DLJ Donaldson, Lufkin, Jenarett, ages Ago, and so he brings a huge knowledge base of fixed income dynamics. And he's where I am, and where I am doesn't matter, but it really matters if Ken Rogoff of Harvard's at the same place. Ken Rogoff with David Wesson looked for that on Wall Street Week and Professor Rogoff was adamant. He's focused on the inflation adjusted yields plural and I totally agree with this that what we really care about, including Jerome Poal this afternoon, is an analysis of the real yield. Brian Whalen of TCW on the.

Real yield, I think that's the knockout blow. I don't think this two point seven. I don't think this market could really even handle two point five. But if we saw a jump up to like two point seven percent, which is you know rates, last time we were at these levels that kind of level and real interest rates right before the financial crisis, clearly, you know, the economy, the markets couldn't handle it. This time around, we do the same thing, and then what would happen is that if you get rates up that high, you're going to see, you know, equity markets crater, and then you're going to hit financial conditions. And what you're going to see is a consumer who's already stressed and they're borrowing a lot more than they used to. And yes, spending is high, but they're doing it because of the wealth effects, because they look at their equity market portfolio and they say, hey, I feel I feel good. I've got more money than I had last year. Once you see that drop on your screen, you know, and you know on your broker screen that changes, that'll be the end.

Real yield, I think that's the knockout blow. I don't think this two point seven. I don't think this market could really even handle two point five. But if we saw a jump up to like two point seven percent, which is you know rates, last time we were at these levels that kind of level and real interest rates right before the financial crisis, clearly, you know, the economy, the markets couldn't handle it. This time around, we do the same thing, and then what would happen is that if you get rates up that high, you're going to see, you know, equity markets crater, and then you're going to hit financial conditions. And what you're going to see is a consumer who's already stressed and they're borrowing a lot more than they used to. And yes, spending is high, but they're doing it because of the wealth effects, because they look at their equity market portfolio and they say, hey, I feel I feel good. I've got more money than I had last year. Once you see that drop on your screen, you know, and you know on your broker screen that changes, that'll be the end.

Let me translate this because that was a pro conversation right now, the ten year inflation adjusted yield. There's different measurements of this, there's different regimes you can use. Is two point twenty seven percent? Not that long ago, we're at one point nine something and it was like, are you kidding me? We're going to go through two percent? And we've gone up to two point two seven percent, And mister Whaleen there's talking about not he's not predicting, but he's saying, if you get a ten year real yield to two point four two point five and I believe he said two point seven percent, there you put some real stress on the balance sheets of America, the different individual the home and the corporate balance sheets as well. We've gone a little along Today's single best idea or out on Apple, car Play and Android all sorts of new things, including a complete two hour, fifty six minute epic replay of the show. Look for that three PMS two thirty pmsh out on Bloomberg podcasts and of course on YouTube. We're building it out. Search Bloomberg podcasts and look for Bloomberg surveillance. There it is Kaiser and Whyland, Kaiser and Whalan are single best idea

Let me translate this because that was a pro conversation right now, the ten year inflation adjusted yield. There's different measurements of this, there's different regimes you can use. Is two point twenty seven percent? Not that long ago, we're at one point nine something and it was like, are you kidding me? We're going to go through two percent? And we've gone up to two point two seven percent, And mister Whaleen there's talking about not he's not predicting, but he's saying, if you get a ten year real yield to two point four two point five and I believe he said two point seven percent, there you put some real stress on the balance sheets of America, the different individual the home and the corporate balance sheets as well. We've gone a little along Today's single best idea or out on Apple, car Play and Android all sorts of new things, including a complete two hour, fifty six minute epic replay of the show. Look for that three PMS two thirty pmsh out on Bloomberg podcasts and of course on YouTube. We're building it out. Search Bloomberg podcasts and look for Bloomberg surveillance. There it is Kaiser and Whyland, Kaiser and Whalan are single best idea

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