Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.
In this episode, we feature conversations with Stuart Kaiser, Brad Setser, & John Stoltzfus.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
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Single best idea coming off the FED meeting yesterday. We made multiple further progress today. I'm keeping entertained hour to hour greade set of guests. I thought Wendy Schiller of Brown University just wonderful on the linkages of the G seven meeting back to the other odd meeting of World War two, the Potsdam Conference of nineteen forty five. At that conference, Roosevelt had died, Truman was there, is a newly minted president completely different than Fdr Churchill was there as Prime Minister, but in the middle of the Potsdam Conference he learned he was out of a job, and Clement Attley took over. I think Clement Atlee maybe took over the middle of the conference. I don't have that in front of me, and Joseph Stalin was looking at him, going, you crazy guys in the West. Is that any different than what Amory Horden is seeing in Pulia? The G seven meeting. They lined up for the photo shoot today and they had the guy from Germany struggling. Mccronlooked like he hadn't slept in a week. The guy from Canada was there smiling. I don't know where Canada's gone. President Biden with his challenges which you know, four against whatever, and then bonus round the Prime Minister of England who's in a hillatious election battle with labor. Just completely odd. They didn't even get to Ursua LeVander vander Leiden, I should say, out on the right side of the photo shoot, who's running Brussels and seems to be pretty assured of a view forward as well. But just just bizarre European and politics and how it affects America. Had a great show today. Let's go first to this bullmarket. We really had a bullmarket centric view today. A lot of good guests who have been right, they have participated Stuart Kaiser City Group on big tech a.
Stock here there. Yes, But you know, if you look to your point big picture, this is not tech bubble type valuations, right, This is not you know, a tech bubble type over your skis. This is a small number of companies generating a massive amount of earnings growth that are getting rewarded for it. So, you know, are we above average valuation? Yes? I think if you looked at the S and P five hundred you'd say you're probably maybe even upper cortile, upper decyle. But you know there's still room to expand. I think if the economy holds in and we continue to print the type erning's growth, we are.
Stuart Kaiser City Group. But thank you to other people with different time frames talking about participating. Ted Oakley stopped by from Austin, Texas with Oxbo and he's in the market. He owns tech. He's not buying new tech, but he hasn't sold what he's owned, and down at the bottom of his research note the gentleman from Texas Tech. It's because he's got a five year perspective. How many of you? Not me, certainly not Eric. Eric's just trying to get the father day with baby Giuseppe. But the basic idea here is a five year old you're kidding me. That's my time frame, Ted Oakley in the markets, participating with a time frame out that out that far. What a joy to have My first read of the summer and bread sets her is definitive within academics at the Council on Foreign Relations expert on China. What's great about the terseness of the way he writes is every paragraph is tense. Every paragraph It's written almost in a collegiate way. Every paragraph has value. His very short, wonderful read on deglobalization at Foreign Affairs Magazine. I just can't say enough about it. It is a primal scream against some of the mists of deglobalization. Here bred sets are of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Elon Musk will make decisions that are good for Elon Musk. I think we've seen them. The US government has to make decisions that are good for the American public. I do think in the case of electric vehicles, it is appropriate to put some limits on our imports from China to allow American electric vehicle manufacturers to scale up in the United States to catch up with China. I think what people often forget is that China has achieved its advantage in electric vehicles not by truly liberal policies, but by very active industrial policies. China's electric vehicle industry has long been predicted by temper, and China has very strong by Chinese provisions linked to its EV subsidies, and it's thrown money its battery producers. China's ahead, we need to catch up, and I think that's what the.
Administration there's Brad Setser of the Console Form Relations. My first read is Summer the Myth of Deglobalization. We had a bull market tinge today. I mentioned Ben Ladler in a tweet earlier today, getting the Markets right in December of twenty eighteen. That chart is just breathtaking to describe it here on this podcast. It's a semilogue chart which shows percent change and from November thirtieth of twenty eighteen. It's a very contained trend, very nicely contained when you run a regression on it within two standard deviations. And we're not extended on that trend. We're above the center line, we're above the center tendency, but we're not extended. That's something we talked to all of our bull market types today about, including John Stolfus, who's been a bull He's maybe the first one I heard who whispered fifty four hundred. He says he will not go higher until we print fifty five hundred. And also Paul Sweet had to bring it up. Is great, and John stolf is like legit country guitar player. He's got some serious Broadway cred over the years. And for all of you looking for a treat for your graduate John Stolfus on Martin guitars.
Well, you know, I go after the custom shop guitars from there. So I've got a D eighteen Golden Era that's signed by Yeah.
It doesn't have scallop bracing, it's got traditional bracing right.
Well, you know it has traditional because it's mimicking something like nineteen forty one, nineteen forty two, and it's terrific. I think it actually is scallop breast. It wasn't that the originals.
It was the original scalop or that.
If it's a custom shop you get the.
Neil Young's nineteen sixty eight, sixty nine, you know, D forty five. Those weren't Scott and they got that old Martin sound.
Yeah, that's an interesting point.
I can tell you this.
I've I've owned a D twenty eight that I bought in the probably about nineteen eighty two for Manny's when it was still in business. Yeah, great guitar. And later on I bought a D twenty eight that was Brazilian rosewood from the factory of Reproduction.
And I tell you the.
Truth, that D eighteen with Indian rose rud from the seven in the eighties was a better guitar.
That's great. Where else are you going to get this? John Stulfus a Opko, Oppenheimer and Company. I think he owns forty seven guitars. I just lie, Eric, you know, I just how much did that cost? I just moved to death some whole point. You know, It's like that was one hundred It was five hundred and forty nine dollars here, And you know something, I guess I'll have to sell them. John Stulfus on Martin Guitars. We're going to finish strong for the week and into next week as well. We mentioned it once suddenly June thirty, beckons window dressing. Maybe that's what's driving big tech higher on Ample Podcasts, Single best Idea