Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Michael Darda & Peter Tchir

Published Jan 15, 2025, 6:00 PM

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Michael Darda & Peter Tchir.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news a single best idea and after the marathon yesterday, thanks to our team for putting together a special edition yesterday five hours of Bloomberg surveillance. I'm like, you know, are we really going to cover a hearing for two hours? But it was fascinating. The special things to Terry Haynes at Pangaea for joining us as well and other worthies to give perspective as we go to our special coverage of the inauguration. Look for that Monday, Martin Luther King Day at twelve noon we begin substantial coverage into the afternoon. I know David Kerra will attend there as well. And today, just within the blur of bank earnings, Alison Williams was outstanding with Bloomberg Intelligence, providing context to the mass and the scale of these big banks. You've heard me say it before. I literally think they're hiding how successful they are. That's a controversial statement, but I'll make it as well. No controversy today that the equity markets of the worry, of course, turning around with the CPI disinflation report. At a thirty Before that, we talked to Michael Darta of Roth Michael Darta talking about the end of the mag seven boom.

I would say, from a sector based perspective, the areas that have really dominated the performance of the S and P five hundred, I would be I would be cautious on from here, and we know what those are, you know. I do think this rate spike, certainly, you know, the residential real estate market needs this rate spike like it needs a hole in the head. So I do think it will be damaging to parts of the economy, no doubt about it. But if it, you know, if if a surge in the term premium ends up being a dragon growth and it's also self limiting to some extent, So I think that can feedback into a story where we want to actually be more bullish on bonds here, you know, still bullish on the energy space, right, you know, looking to areas that have not been dominating the performance of the S and P five hundred, I think it's time for a bit of a switch up.

Michael Darta Roth. One of the things we've done pushing out I can't believe I'm saying this for over two decades, is to provide a heritage, a character, a fabric to who these people are. The first time I had Michael darta on we talked about him, he was like, I don't think he could shave with Judewininski, who was a really, really highly regarded more conservative voice within economics and data was I think just out of Wisconsin at the time working for Jude Weininsky. But all these guests have histories, they have heritages. Peter Scheer is with academy securities in more than any do you want to speak to. He is hardwired into the dialogue of the Naval Academy and the other military services. We digress today away from his ability to participate in the markets, but still be cautious about some of the worries picking up there, like leverage. Peter Shecher on his academy securities, Peter Sheer on his admirals and his.

Generals Beyond any individual. I think when our team talks, they're looking for a military that progresses, figures out where we're going to be. You know, I think there's a lot of questions. Do these large platforms still make sense, do aircraft careers make sense? How much money should be spending on bent on drones? What sort of technology do we need how do we go forward, How do we make the military so they hit the recruiting goals again. Right, something's happened where Space Force and the Marine Corps hitting their roles. So I think they need to revitalize this. I think there's a lot of concern about how this is being led in the past, how it can be led going forward. I think there's an optimism and at the you know, individual soldier level, it's good. But how do we prepare for the next war? Are we stretched too thin? One of our generals, General Ashley, he quotes, can't remember who he quotes, but this probably goes back ten years ago. Our enemies used to fear us and respect us. Then it switched to our enemies maybe no longer respect us, but they fear us now. It's unclear that they respect or fear us. Right, We've had so much you know, measured response that we have to go and figure out deterrence again properly. Deterrence clearly fell apart a little bit. If a rans comfortable attacking Israel, if Russia is attacking Ukraine.

Valuable from Peter Scher of Academy Securities will continue with our coverage, of course for the leadership of David Gura and our entire Washington team on our political debate in this nation, to the inauguration and into the second administration, the second term for President Trump. On this commute across the nation again, thank you. Ninety nine one FM Washington, Bloomberg eleventh three to zero in New York, our flagship station, and of course good morning across New England on ninety two nine on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea

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