Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.
In this episode, we feature conversations with Katy Kaminski, Aoifinn Devitt and Hot Dogs!
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
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Best idea on a Friday in the summer. But it's not a normal Friday in the summer. There have been other August Fridays. Nineteen ninety eight is seared in my memory. It was something I've had the honor not once but twice to speak at length with the Nobel Laureate Myron Shoals about the August of nineteen ninety eight, to speak to cliff Asnas John Boegel about it extraordinary. This isn't like nineteen ninety eight, but what we have all been through in the last ten days is just absolutely extraordinary. I'm not going to take time here in a six minute podcast to go into the details or frankly my thoughts on it, but the resiliency, the depth of the American financial system is jaw dropping. I mentioned Arthur Levitt, of course, of Bloomberg, the former SEC chairman who brought stability to the individual investor, and I really think some of this depth started with his first principal work at the SEC years ago. Kaptain Kaminski is absolutely expert at this prodigious academics out of the Massachusetts Institute of technology trend was shattered. Katie Kaminski on trend.
What happens when you have such a big move is that its trend signals a lot. So you have to think a little bit about the type of trend filter that you're using. Some models are going to be much more like your classic moving averages, and those really adjust aggressively when you have that type of move. But you can also use other types of models that may sort of windsor eyes or remove some of the outliers, and those may not be as much affected. But the truth is there may be information in this recent event that could be foreboting for potential trends to come.
Katie Kaminsky off simplex. I can't say enough about this. There's two basic types of trading and investing. What is trend based, where you get you know, you have a belief system, and you get on a trend, and you stand the trend, the trend's broken, you get out. I mean, we all understand that. The other is what's called stochastics, which is trying to be much more cute, much more find the perfect point less get in the trend and find the perfect moment. Of course, the cliche is to catch a falling knife in the dark. But stochastics versus trends and everything I've done here with Bloomberg on the economy in Bloomberg's surveillance is about trend following, trend persistency, and a great respect for getting out when the trend is shattered. Kaminsky hesitant, but I really have say still says there is a bull market trend that is hugely in sync with IF. In devot of Monetta, arguably the most prestigious academics of anyone we speak to. Her set of academic excellence out of Ireland, out of the United Kingdom is jaw dropping her work. Really, I really really listen to IF and devt really with some great perspective here she is on into twenty twenty five.
Yeah, I'm not going to I think sixty forty to use your expression no longer cuts the mustard. It would be clearly a balanced portfolio that has gone somewhat out of favor. We saw that in twenty twenty two. Both sides of that portfolio behave poorly, and now we have a situation where even the smallest retail vester is starting to look around the corner at alternatives so I wouldn't say sixty forty. I would actually advocate for far more diversification today than than sixty forty. But I also wouldn't say staying in cash is going to work so well when we all know that interest rates are coming down.
Evan Dubitt of Mondetta, what a joy. Last week they have David Gura, surveillance lobster correspondent. We got a huge response to that August tradition, so much so that Gura sent in a photograph from Reds was cast it what he does. You can't believe this, Boks. I mean, you talk about criminal activity. Gura and missus Gurra leave the kids in the line at Reds which stretches halfway to Calais while they go antique shopping, and wiscast it. It's unbelievable, the cruel and unusual punishment. And we said good morning to Reds and all the great lobster houses that are part of the surveillance world. This week it was the image of hot dogs and what does that mean? Thank you to the Warrington family, Mamaronick, New York, just north of New York City. Our w Apple Junior at the New York Times years Ago called it the best hot dog in America. It is a hot dog of one hundred and five years. Walter's Dogs celebrates their one hundred and fifth anniversary of employing kids in Mamarnac with muster Damien, says our expert on Walter's Dogs. Here is surveillance hotdog correspondent Eric Ween or Bloomberg News.
It's a tiny little hot dog stand. It's been there forever. It's legendary. People do come from distances to go there, but it's really a locals thing. Like every little league's team goes there after they win. My Fabrica childhood exactly exactly, And the hot dogs are excellent. They like do this weird thing with the They like dip them in butter or whatever, and then they put them on the griddle and oh it's awesome, and then they split it and so it's sort of crispy, and the bun is excellent.
Gotta go, I'm hungry. So other is my childhood of this was swegelhots, reds and whites, zwigelhats and good morning, Don and Bob's in Western New York. I don't think it's there anymore. Walter's Dogs is there still and always forever. It's been a great week. Look for us on Android Auto, on Apple car Play. Look for us on YouTube. Blown away by the international success of what we're doing on YouTube. Particularly good evening to all of you on a Pacific rim This is on Apple podcast single best idea,