Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jurrien Timmer & Troy Gayeski

Published Jul 29, 2024, 5:00 PM

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jurrien Timmer & Troy Gayeski.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single bust IDEA quickment on a Monday, but it is a decidedly non summer week. This is maybe, no, not maybe, I'm going to state it. It is the busiest week of the summer. FED meeting on Wednesday, and of course all the jobs report into Friday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday will go beneath the headline data. Much much more housing data coming up, I believe tomorrow as well. It's just I'm sorry, maybe on Friday or Saturday. Everybody takes off six weeks. A lot of the surveillance crew actually is taking a French vacation this year. Eric seems to be looking at four consecutive weeks off. He'll darken the door again the first week of September. But it's a big deal. It's a big Monday, and we wanted to go for people with an overarching grasp of the relations of the market. You're in Timor. If you don't know him, is it fidelity? He's truly I don't use this word often. He is iconic and technical analysis and you can see this if you go to LinkedIn. You're in Timor alone. Is one reason to sign up for LinkedIn. Absolutely brilliant. Timm e R. Search it out on LinkedIn and he has there not all but a good amount of the fidelity technical work he's doing. How's just stated, it is absolutely definitive across global Wall Street. You're in timor on the week ahead for.

The first time in this cycle. The fat truly is poised to cut right like it's had a bias to ease, but now it has the green light to actually execute. The question is how many times it goes. And at the same time, we have earnings growth accelerating. You know Q two season is underway, of course, and every Friday I go my Bloomberg and I look at the expected earnings growth numbers and there are plus eleven right now and rising. So if you think about it, and also let me throw one more stattude, the S and P Equal Weighted Index has a PE ratio of eighteen, whereas the cap weighted index has a PE of twenty four. You have a lowering cost of capital, a bond market that's well behaved right now, accelerating earnings, and reasonable valuations for most stocks. If that's not a recipe for the market to broaden, then I don't know what there is.

You're in timer and again it's technical work out on LinkedIn on Twitter, but particularly LinkedIn is just absolutely superb. Somebody said to me gold, what do I read? William Silverb is emeritis NYU And he's written a whole bunch of books. Wrote a book on silver and this that a good twelve thirteen years ago. He wrote a definitive book on the day gold shifted from a British sovereign reality over to a US sovereign at reality. Look up William Silber. Silber, William Silber on a book. It's got a title Washington's in it. It's like fourteen years old. Look for that out on Amazon. What else can we talk about? Well, once again the asset allocation story Troi Gyski and FS Investments looking at the broader pictures. That was our theme today, not so much international but domestic on what the FED would do into earning season. From FS Investments, Troi Gyeski, you have.

To recognize that that period of overconsumption where the consumer could spend down excess savings as well as run the standard savings rate down from seven percent pre pandemic to three point two is really over. But you know, McDonald's a great example because there again last earning season, this earning season, you've seen confirmed signs both from the top down and bottom up, that the consumer is much more fragile now than they were eighteen months ago. And what that means from a market standpoint, tom or an economic standpoint, is if there's some type of unforeseen shock, then there's less shock absorption capability in the consumer to keep things going. Whereas eighteen months ago it really right, matter what happened to other contributing factors, the consumer was just so gosh arn't strong.

Eighteen months on in a great bull market. Let's recipitulate this bullmarket to me. The Christmas Eve started it twenty eighteen, a year before the pandemic came out of nowhere was really a time to get on board. Ben Ladler just outstanding at that at the time at HSBC. And then within all the pandemic and the emotion and the money lost, I should say very clearly there was October of twenty twenty two, and I call that the Yard, Denny and Caompora Low where others besides Ralph and Kompora, the great Chartist and ed Yard Denny got on board and there was another leg of this and twelve months later October of twenty twenty three. I have no idea where we are now. It's not my job to give an opinion of long, short, bull or bear, but I can really say that with the shockingly tepid pullback, wow, has the inks showed up this weekend. It was really amazing to see, just with I did a lot of percent change work, six percent draw down, the mag seven Bloomberg Index cratered. It's an eighteen percent draw down, and on and on and the answer is what will happen while the anks has come up here as well, and everybody's got an opinion, we'll drive that opinion to you here in this eventful week. We're on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast on Apple car Play and Android Auto an Apple podcasts. It's single best I did.

N T. Pactors were included in the d

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