Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Single best idea. We usually do two voices, we went do three today. It was such a rich program of conversation. Marilyn Watson from Blackrock in London. I thought was really quite something about linking in the geopolitics and the multiple political stories into higher yield. We are seeing a higher yield here, she suggested. It was an opportunity. One person's opinion, many many other opinions as well. Major shout out to Randy Boyd of the University of Tennessee. Really learned a lot about the Land Grant school experience right now. He did point out that Tennessee baseball did better than good in a college World Series. But it's always good to speak to a college president about the huge challenges faced worldwide and the education of the excuse me of America. Let us begin. Jim Karen was just wonderful today from Morgan Stanley. He has prodigious physics and mathematic skills and not only looking at fixed income but looking cross asset, and that means there's that classic model sixty forty.

Single best idea. We usually do two voices, we went do three today. It was such a rich program of conversation. Marilyn Watson from Blackrock in London. I thought was really quite something about linking in the geopolitics and the multiple political stories into higher yield. We are seeing a higher yield here, she suggested. It was an opportunity. One person's opinion, many many other opinions as well. Major shout out to Randy Boyd of the University of Tennessee. Really learned a lot about the Land Grant school experience right now. He did point out that Tennessee baseball did better than good in a college World Series. But it's always good to speak to a college president about the huge challenges faced worldwide and the education of the excuse me of America. Let us begin. Jim Karen was just wonderful today from Morgan Stanley. He has prodigious physics and mathematic skills and not only looking at fixed income but looking cross asset, and that means there's that classic model sixty forty.

It's not that the sixty forty doesn't work, it's just I think that the sixty forty will be suboptimal. And the reason why the sixty forty portfolio will be suboptimals we have to take a little bit of a trip through history. If you go back to nineteen eighty one to twenty twenty one, if you look at that forty year period of time, bonds did very well during that period. Thirty seven out of forty years they made money so very stable, very good returns. Your shop ratio or your your risk adjusted return if you had a sixty forty portfolio was roughly seven percent, which is great. You know, passive investing sixty You know, sixty forty did really well for that forty year period of time. If you look from twenty twenty two, twenty three and into twenty four, what you're seeing is that bonds are becoming less stable, less reliably you know, producing good, solid returns, and that's likely to occur into the future. So what it would suggest is that now the sixty forty might not give you passive might not give you seven percent, but it might actually only give you five. And that's a meaningful difference in types of returns. So I would say that the new way of thinking about how do we use bonds to hedge. Our portfolio needs to be a lot more flexible, So it could be seventy thirty, it could be thirty seventy in some instances. Really, what we're trying to account for is the volatility of returns and bonds, which we think will start to follow the business cycle more than just being a forty year you know, downward trending rates and strong performance for that period of time.

It's not that the sixty forty doesn't work, it's just I think that the sixty forty will be suboptimal. And the reason why the sixty forty portfolio will be suboptimals we have to take a little bit of a trip through history. If you go back to nineteen eighty one to twenty twenty one, if you look at that forty year period of time, bonds did very well during that period. Thirty seven out of forty years they made money so very stable, very good returns. Your shop ratio or your your risk adjusted return if you had a sixty forty portfolio was roughly seven percent, which is great. You know, passive investing sixty You know, sixty forty did really well for that forty year period of time. If you look from twenty twenty two, twenty three and into twenty four, what you're seeing is that bonds are becoming less stable, less reliably you know, producing good, solid returns, and that's likely to occur into the future. So what it would suggest is that now the sixty forty might not give you passive might not give you seven percent, but it might actually only give you five. And that's a meaningful difference in types of returns. So I would say that the new way of thinking about how do we use bonds to hedge. Our portfolio needs to be a lot more flexible, So it could be seventy thirty, it could be thirty seventy in some instances. Really, what we're trying to account for is the volatility of returns and bonds, which we think will start to follow the business cycle more than just being a forty year you know, downward trending rates and strong performance for that period of time.

Struggling with the end of the Great Deflation, the Great moderation, I should say rather interesting to see Jim Caron there on sixty percent in stocks, forty percent in bonds. Maybe in Europe's the other way around sixty percent in bonds forty percent in stocks. But a lot of miss to what this broad institutional formula will do. There's no mystery that the linkage of Edaheim and the economics, but Julian Emmanuel equity market strategy is always valuable at evercore Isi. Mister Hymen, of course, some would argue inventing market economics always has looked every moment at Jeimen has looked to the belief in the American system. We pause today with Julian Emmanuel of evercore Isi.

Struggling with the end of the Great Deflation, the Great moderation, I should say rather interesting to see Jim Caron there on sixty percent in stocks, forty percent in bonds. Maybe in Europe's the other way around sixty percent in bonds forty percent in stocks. But a lot of miss to what this broad institutional formula will do. There's no mystery that the linkage of Edaheim and the economics, but Julian Emmanuel equity market strategy is always valuable at evercore Isi. Mister Hymen, of course, some would argue inventing market economics always has looked every moment at Jeimen has looked to the belief in the American system. We pause today with Julian Emmanuel of evercore Isi.

My ninety three year old father in law recently departed, lived a great life. Basically was in stocks until the end, as much as in stocks as he could possibly because he believed that when you look at it, and the data supports this, through economic cycles, through you know, political turmoil, through geopolitics, wars, all of these things, that stocks are the long term income producing asset, and frankly, when you think about the things that we're trying to hedge inflation again some of these uncertainties. The other fact is that if you look at it, the price chart of the S and P five hundred mirrors the growth in earnings. And if you're going to get long term earnings growth, which we do believe and fundamentally, you must be in stocks.

My ninety three year old father in law recently departed, lived a great life. Basically was in stocks until the end, as much as in stocks as he could possibly because he believed that when you look at it, and the data supports this, through economic cycles, through you know, political turmoil, through geopolitics, wars, all of these things, that stocks are the long term income producing asset, and frankly, when you think about the things that we're trying to hedge inflation again some of these uncertainties. The other fact is that if you look at it, the price chart of the S and P five hundred mirrors the growth in earnings. And if you're going to get long term earnings growth, which we do believe and fundamentally, you must be in stocks.

Jillian emmanuellder On a father in law, a vintage ninety three years Eric, could you see me, you know here like eighty nine or single best idea? They got the retirement party scheduled for the end of the summer. I'm kidding, folks. We did a bonus round today. We had two with Bob Dahl. Bob Dahl is legendary in the business. He's always in the market. The glass is always a full, even if he counsels a build up, a use of cash to find a better day to buy. Really rich conversation again today with Robert Doll of Crossmark.

Jillian emmanuellder On a father in law, a vintage ninety three years Eric, could you see me, you know here like eighty nine or single best idea? They got the retirement party scheduled for the end of the summer. I'm kidding, folks. We did a bonus round today. We had two with Bob Dahl. Bob Dahl is legendary in the business. He's always in the market. The glass is always a full, even if he counsels a build up, a use of cash to find a better day to buy. Really rich conversation again today with Robert Doll of Crossmark.

COVID just threw so many typical patterns off their normal course, and that's confused so many of us. For example, all the excess savings saved this from an economic slow down, if not a recession last year. That's just one example. So the models that people use are causing them to scratching it because they're just not working. And I think there's more of that to come. I think there's a false sense of security out there that everything's just fine. I mean, look, when the market's selling over twenty times earnings, things better be close to perfect, right, and they're not. The economy is slowing, Inflation, while probably going to come down some more, is stubborn, sticky. It's not going to get to the two percent fed target. And got these double digit earnings expectations for this year and next year. I can't square all those very positive circles and come up with a reason why fifty five hundred. I got to jump in with both feet. So I'm a little on the cautious side, fully invested but really careful about what I own.

COVID just threw so many typical patterns off their normal course, and that's confused so many of us. For example, all the excess savings saved this from an economic slow down, if not a recession last year. That's just one example. So the models that people use are causing them to scratching it because they're just not working. And I think there's more of that to come. I think there's a false sense of security out there that everything's just fine. I mean, look, when the market's selling over twenty times earnings, things better be close to perfect, right, and they're not. The economy is slowing, Inflation, while probably going to come down some more, is stubborn, sticky. It's not going to get to the two percent fed target. And got these double digit earnings expectations for this year and next year. I can't square all those very positive circles and come up with a reason why fifty five hundred. I got to jump in with both feet. So I'm a little on the cautious side, fully invested but really careful about what I own.

Robert Dull, there were the history of COVID. In coming out of COVID, I do want to say so one indicator at the end of the pandemic today it was heartening Catherine Doherty writing this up for Bloomberg. In the CFA program, I'm a member of this CFA institute. You take three exams, Level one, level two, level three. Level one is like really really basic, really really hard, really really A lot of people flunk and you can take it again and it's great. It's a rite of passage. CFA Level two is considered, I think by many to be the really toughest exam. And what a rebound today in the announcement of fifty nine percent of people passing the Level two CFA And to me, with all the gyrations everybody's had with COVID, it's a really constructive sign that we move beyond, beyond all that we lived with in the pandemic. We're out on YouTube, Bloomberg Podcasts, search Bloomberg Podcasts and subscribe. We would like that Apple car play with Apple coming out with a new version at some point and Android Auto as well. An Apple podcasts. This is a single best idea

Robert Dull, there were the history of COVID. In coming out of COVID, I do want to say so one indicator at the end of the pandemic today it was heartening Catherine Doherty writing this up for Bloomberg. In the CFA program, I'm a member of this CFA institute. You take three exams, Level one, level two, level three. Level one is like really really basic, really really hard, really really A lot of people flunk and you can take it again and it's great. It's a rite of passage. CFA Level two is considered, I think by many to be the really toughest exam. And what a rebound today in the announcement of fifty nine percent of people passing the Level two CFA And to me, with all the gyrations everybody's had with COVID, it's a really constructive sign that we move beyond, beyond all that we lived with in the pandemic. We're out on YouTube, Bloomberg Podcasts, search Bloomberg Podcasts and subscribe. We would like that Apple car play with Apple coming out with a new version at some point and Android Auto as well. An Apple podcasts. This is a single best idea