Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News, Single.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News, Single.

Best Idea on Apple Podcasts. Thank you for listening, Thank you for subscribing. What a day. I mean, It wasn't an exhausting day. It wasn't like the other day where I had a space launch and I had ecb Leguard was talking as a rocket was going up in the air. It wasn't like that. But it was really a dense day with an important CPI report into the FED report. We're taping single Best Idea here before the FED meeting, and the inflation report was shocking. Thank you, Bob. He's a former Hamilton College goalie. I think he's I don't think he's retired, and goalies don't retire. They just you know, they go on until they go to the great goalie in the sky. Anyways, Bob emails and he says, you got to go to three decimal points and you really could have taken this down near zero point one percent on one of the microdata, which clearly disinflation. We had a great lineup throughout, Julia Carnado Constance Hunter, both at Micropolicy Perspectives, added Vailue. We'll get to Paul Donovan, a ubs here in a moment. But what a joy to have a gentleman from I can't believe him saying is Purdue. He has a PhD from Indiana University. Purdue is a small engineering school up the road from AYU. But Bullard, Jim Bullard, former president of Saint Louis FED, is now building and rebuilding and executing Mitch Daniel's great graduate program at Purdue. Of course, all wrapped around technology and engineering, which Produe is known for years. So Bullard was perfect timing here with a FED that's decidedly trying to figure out when to move Jim Bullard on CPI.

Best Idea on Apple Podcasts. Thank you for listening, Thank you for subscribing. What a day. I mean, It wasn't an exhausting day. It wasn't like the other day where I had a space launch and I had ecb Leguard was talking as a rocket was going up in the air. It wasn't like that. But it was really a dense day with an important CPI report into the FED report. We're taping single Best Idea here before the FED meeting, and the inflation report was shocking. Thank you, Bob. He's a former Hamilton College goalie. I think he's I don't think he's retired, and goalies don't retire. They just you know, they go on until they go to the great goalie in the sky. Anyways, Bob emails and he says, you got to go to three decimal points and you really could have taken this down near zero point one percent on one of the microdata, which clearly disinflation. We had a great lineup throughout, Julia Carnado Constance Hunter, both at Micropolicy Perspectives, added Vailue. We'll get to Paul Donovan, a ubs here in a moment. But what a joy to have a gentleman from I can't believe him saying is Purdue. He has a PhD from Indiana University. Purdue is a small engineering school up the road from AYU. But Bullard, Jim Bullard, former president of Saint Louis FED, is now building and rebuilding and executing Mitch Daniel's great graduate program at Purdue. Of course, all wrapped around technology and engineering, which Produe is known for years. So Bullard was perfect timing here with a FED that's decidedly trying to figure out when to move Jim Bullard on CPI.

We did get tremendous reduction and core PC inflation in the second half of twenty twenty three. It was four point eight percent last summer on a twelve month basis, it came all the way down to two point eight percent. So in this world, in this game, two hundred basis points of inflation reduction over six months or so is fantastically large. So you should be taking that into account. You should be reducing the policy rate. But the committee just couldn't find the right moment to do that because all the inflation reports up to now we were mixed or even even negative, so unfortunately didn't find the right moment to do that. But this idea that the policy rate is a little too high for where the economy is today, I think makes a lot of sense. So I've advocated for like a technical adjustment, you know, you want to get this idea across that because inflation isn't isn't near five percent anymore. Core inflation it's now under three percent. We can afford to reduce the policy rate, still be restrictive and get this glide path into two percent. The two percent target and the.

We did get tremendous reduction and core PC inflation in the second half of twenty twenty three. It was four point eight percent last summer on a twelve month basis, it came all the way down to two point eight percent. So in this world, in this game, two hundred basis points of inflation reduction over six months or so is fantastically large. So you should be taking that into account. You should be reducing the policy rate. But the committee just couldn't find the right moment to do that because all the inflation reports up to now we were mixed or even even negative, so unfortunately didn't find the right moment to do that. But this idea that the policy rate is a little too high for where the economy is today, I think makes a lot of sense. So I've advocated for like a technical adjustment, you know, you want to get this idea across that because inflation isn't isn't near five percent anymore. Core inflation it's now under three percent. We can afford to reduce the policy rate, still be restrictive and get this glide path into two percent. The two percent target and the.

Key Phraser glide path just sort of the history, this smoothness that economists and bankers plead for and hope for as well. Here's more with Jim Bullard on the path forward.

Key Phraser glide path just sort of the history, this smoothness that economists and bankers plead for and hope for as well. Here's more with Jim Bullard on the path forward.

First of all, I don't think anybody ever won an election based on whether the FED did something at the September meeting, So I don't think it matters for actual election outcomes. I don't think the median voter is voting on that. They're voting on much broader issues. So I think that the Committee feels in bolden to do whatever it thinks is right at that meeting or any of the other meetings and the lead up to the election, and they have moved in the past during the election cycle and I think they can do that if they wish this time.

First of all, I don't think anybody ever won an election based on whether the FED did something at the September meeting, So I don't think it matters for actual election outcomes. I don't think the median voter is voting on that. They're voting on much broader issues. So I think that the Committee feels in bolden to do whatever it thinks is right at that meeting or any of the other meetings and the lead up to the election, and they have moved in the past during the election cycle and I think they can do that if they wish this time.

Jim Bullard of Purdue, many many great guests today. Just to start us off strong early in the morning was Paul Donovan. He's at UBS just always outstanding. He's been at UBS for over thirty years, providing huge insight. I can't say enough about in Paul Donovan's work out on linked In. They really are a value add out on LinkedIn. You can see Paul Donovan there. He was pretty much scathing this morning. You know, Bullard's got to be diplomatic about it. As a former FED official, Donovan didn't mince words. Let's listen.

Jim Bullard of Purdue, many many great guests today. Just to start us off strong early in the morning was Paul Donovan. He's at UBS just always outstanding. He's been at UBS for over thirty years, providing huge insight. I can't say enough about in Paul Donovan's work out on linked In. They really are a value add out on LinkedIn. You can see Paul Donovan there. He was pretty much scathing this morning. You know, Bullard's got to be diplomatic about it. As a former FED official, Donovan didn't mince words. Let's listen.

I think it's worse than Greenspan because there's no defense these days. I mean, when was the last time we had at least a publicly dissenting voice from THEFMC. These decisions are all unanimous. It's really really weird now. I mean, you know, the UK, the Bank of England is basically a fist fight every meeting, So you know, the UK is perhaps a somewhat weird suspective to come from. But even at the ECB there is descent. So it's this unanimity of thought, this almost all Wellian mind control is going on. Said that's what worries me.

I think it's worse than Greenspan because there's no defense these days. I mean, when was the last time we had at least a publicly dissenting voice from THEFMC. These decisions are all unanimous. It's really really weird now. I mean, you know, the UK, the Bank of England is basically a fist fight every meeting, So you know, the UK is perhaps a somewhat weird suspective to come from. But even at the ECB there is descent. So it's this unanimity of thought, this almost all Wellian mind control is going on. Said that's what worries me.

And he said more than that, that we couldn't put out on a podcast because it's a family podcast. Paul Donovan of UBS very heated about a fe let's get going. I could go on and on. We're going to keep it contained today. Yesterday went a little bit too long. We're trying to give you six minutes, a smart two minutes of insight on the show. And all that we've seen has just been such rich booking and great perspective. Anne Marie Hordaren is in Pullia, Italy for the G seven meetings of the President. That will be timely, particularly with the upset that we see in France. On Apple Podcasts ru on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts out on YouTube. Apple CarPlay, did they mention Apple CarPlay Eric in the in the you know, you know it's like old news, Apple car plays successful. They don't have to fix it on Apple car Play as well, and of course on Apple podcasts. This is single best idea

And he said more than that, that we couldn't put out on a podcast because it's a family podcast. Paul Donovan of UBS very heated about a fe let's get going. I could go on and on. We're going to keep it contained today. Yesterday went a little bit too long. We're trying to give you six minutes, a smart two minutes of insight on the show. And all that we've seen has just been such rich booking and great perspective. Anne Marie Hordaren is in Pullia, Italy for the G seven meetings of the President. That will be timely, particularly with the upset that we see in France. On Apple Podcasts ru on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts out on YouTube. Apple CarPlay, did they mention Apple CarPlay Eric in the in the you know, you know it's like old news, Apple car plays successful. They don't have to fix it on Apple car Play as well, and of course on Apple podcasts. This is single best idea