Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Singast IDEA short Sweet, What a great list today, Jeffer you extended conversation, Greg Peters from Pigum, extended conversation Adam Posen, We got him in there around Ted Pick of Morgan Stanley with John and Lisa out at Davos. Just a really terrific set of conversations. Jeff for you was just brilliant on the asymmetry of a pair. Now, in the equity market, it can be where's the bid, where's the ass? As a pro you never forget the bid in the ask, and they can move separately. It's like time stands still the phrases, the bid walks away, the stock starts going down, and your stomach turns over. In the currency market, it's a pair a euro dollar. Does a dollar go up in a strong dollar or is it a week euro? Is it a week euro? Brilliant Jeffrey you of B and Y on asymmetry.

Singast IDEA short Sweet, What a great list today, Jeffer you extended conversation, Greg Peters from Pigum, extended conversation Adam Posen, We got him in there around Ted Pick of Morgan Stanley with John and Lisa out at Davos. Just a really terrific set of conversations. Jeff for you was just brilliant on the asymmetry of a pair. Now, in the equity market, it can be where's the bid, where's the ass? As a pro you never forget the bid in the ask, and they can move separately. It's like time stands still the phrases, the bid walks away, the stock starts going down, and your stomach turns over. In the currency market, it's a pair a euro dollar. Does a dollar go up in a strong dollar or is it a week euro? Is it a week euro? Brilliant Jeffrey you of B and Y on asymmetry.

I'm going to qualify something Tom said earlier that Trump needs a weeker dollar. I'll say two things. Firstly, Trump doesn't need a week of dollar. Trump needs other currencies to strengthen. And secondly, if Trump needs a week of dollar. He needs a weeker dollar in real terms, which also means that other currencies other countries, especially China and Europe, need to reflate better in a sustained fashion, in a healthy manner. So those are the two things. And then yeah, those are probably out of his control because that relies on policies elsewhere.

I'm going to qualify something Tom said earlier that Trump needs a weeker dollar. I'll say two things. Firstly, Trump doesn't need a week of dollar. Trump needs other currencies to strengthen. And secondly, if Trump needs a week of dollar. He needs a weeker dollar in real terms, which also means that other currencies other countries, especially China and Europe, need to reflate better in a sustained fashion, in a healthy manner. So those are the two things. And then yeah, those are probably out of his control because that relies on policies elsewhere.

Reflates a really loaded phrase there. There's different types of inflation. There's inflation as you know it. We live it every day. Our team is apoplectic about the price of eggs out there. There is disinflation DS disinflation, which is a lesser inflation, and then there's outright deflation de deflation. Gary Shilling with an iconic book on that, easy to read book on it, where prices actually go down, and there's different kinds of deflation. England has a heritage with us as many other societies. Worry in China right now about deflation. Reflation are Reflation is really undescribed. Reflation is some form of goofy process to reflate, to push up, to goose up an economy. And Jeffery you later in the interview, talked about they have to go to their fiscal space they've got to reflate through a sound, somewhat normal fiscal policy. Somewhat normal always, Sarah Wolf at Morgan Stanley just brilliant. Ted Pick was on from Davos. How do you think Ted Pick is so smart? He reads Sarah Wolf in Morgan Stanley Economics. Sarah Wolf on the topic at Davos tariffs.

Reflates a really loaded phrase there. There's different types of inflation. There's inflation as you know it. We live it every day. Our team is apoplectic about the price of eggs out there. There is disinflation DS disinflation, which is a lesser inflation, and then there's outright deflation de deflation. Gary Shilling with an iconic book on that, easy to read book on it, where prices actually go down, and there's different kinds of deflation. England has a heritage with us as many other societies. Worry in China right now about deflation. Reflation are Reflation is really undescribed. Reflation is some form of goofy process to reflate, to push up, to goose up an economy. And Jeffery you later in the interview, talked about they have to go to their fiscal space they've got to reflate through a sound, somewhat normal fiscal policy. Somewhat normal always, Sarah Wolf at Morgan Stanley just brilliant. Ted Pick was on from Davos. How do you think Ted Pick is so smart? He reads Sarah Wolf in Morgan Stanley Economics. Sarah Wolf on the topic at Davos tariffs.

It's a study of magnitude, and it's a study of timing.

It's a study of magnitude, and it's a study of timing.

If we look back to the exis the X axis.

If we look back to the exis the X axis.

Of course, if we look back to the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen tariffs, and you read the transcripts among the FMC participants, they were broadly looking through the tariffs right that it was a one off price effect, that it wasn't going to be inflationary for the longer run, and they were more worried about the following hit to growth after the tariffs.

Of course, if we look back to the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen tariffs, and you read the transcripts among the FMC participants, they were broadly looking through the tariffs right that it was a one off price effect, that it wasn't going to be inflationary for the longer run, and they were more worried about the following hit to growth after the tariffs.

Can we do the same.

Can we do the same.

Thing this time?

Thing this time?

Not necessarily, it's a little bit more complicated. If we're phasing in tariffs over the course of this year, it's going to be a lot more difficult to discern the effects of tariffs versus the effects of just real inflation. It's also going to be a price level increase that's occurring over a longer period of time than normal, So it's going to be more inflationary than what we saw back in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, and so the Fed might be in a position where they're going to have to take cuts off if that's the case, or not cut at all and kind of be on whole until they see all the tears play out and what it means for economic activity.

Not necessarily, it's a little bit more complicated. If we're phasing in tariffs over the course of this year, it's going to be a lot more difficult to discern the effects of tariffs versus the effects of just real inflation. It's also going to be a price level increase that's occurring over a longer period of time than normal, So it's going to be more inflationary than what we saw back in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, and so the Fed might be in a position where they're going to have to take cuts off if that's the case, or not cut at all and kind of be on whole until they see all the tears play out and what it means for economic activity.

Sir well, Thematic Investing in Economics at Morgan Stanley just a great, great lineup today. We're really starting twenty twenty five strong. We're on your commute across the nation. Major shot out the ninety nine one FM in Washington all the way up to Fridgid, New England ninety two nine FM. I guess the cold is breaking across at the nation, at your home, at your office. On YouTube, you can subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast growing each and every day, Thank you for that, and on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea

Sir well, Thematic Investing in Economics at Morgan Stanley just a great, great lineup today. We're really starting twenty twenty five strong. We're on your commute across the nation. Major shot out the ninety nine one FM in Washington all the way up to Fridgid, New England ninety two nine FM. I guess the cold is breaking across at the nation, at your home, at your office. On YouTube, you can subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast growing each and every day, Thank you for that, and on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea