Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Amy Wu Silverman and Anurag Rana

Published Apr 18, 2024, 7:00 PM

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Amy Wu Silverman and Anurag Rana.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Single best idea and we say good morning to you. We're taping this right after the show. I come out of the show and you know, I mean, you have to fight through the fans and all that. We get into the room and Eric and I put together a six to seven minute podcast. What is it. It's two ideas out of the show. They're not like our best ideas. There are smartest ideas or things that may be worldwide. We care about. One of the things we care about is the risk that is out there. Amy was Silverman is out of the Princeton Combine and it's absolutely fabulous. It's speaking in English about the Greek letters. She is in derivatives, and that goes into cross moments like variants and skew and curtosis and mathematical thing like that, and also into your high school height distribution. Remember in high school, you're studying statistics and it was like, okay, here's the height of my class, and over on the left where the short people the left tail, and over on the right were the tall people the right tail. Well, they brought that over to finances. Of course we can do and we talk about left tail being the angst that's out there, and right tail being maybe a better feeling, a good feeling of what's out there within the equity markets. Amy was silverman of our VC on your Tails.

The right tail is definitely not gone. It's just waned, so the exuberance is still there. You look at a stock like in video where that right tail was just so historic, You really like in the whole history of Nvidia had never seen anything like it. That bid for call options that's peaked in March, but it's still there. There's still call demand outweighing put demand. It's actually just the idea that the left tail's waking up. You know, we've had geopolitical tensions before, We've had Middle East tensions before, We've had sticky CPI before. Why is it different now? The fact that the leftail is waking up, I think just speaks to a global worry that's picking up as well.

Harry is from many other people, not maybe in a quant sense of looking at tails or looking at the cross moments, but far more skew would be the lead one there, but far more just trying to put it in English about the confidence to stay in the market and so on single best idea, we can take it broader and we can do it as is Amy wus Silverman mentions, a Nvidia what about all this AI? Paul Sweeney's got a better feeling about AI than I do. He's more confidence about it. My answer is I'm very unsure about it, and what I really want to do is listen to experts. Our expert is aniog Rana of Bloomberg Intelligence, who is definitive on thinking about the cloud first thing here. That's important aniog ran On as time frame is different than your time frame. Most people looking at AI, what's it going to be like this fall? What's it going to be like a year from now? Ani Ragrana is looking out three years, five years, ten years in what artificial intelligence will do? We need an update? Ani Ragrana of Bloomberg Intelligence.

One of the things we predict over the next three years you will see revenue growth accelerate, but you're not going to see R and D budgets go at that same pace. So that's the margin enhancement for you. But that does not mean that you're going to be firing you know, software developers because there is millions of shortage right now for people to get work done. I think the real benefit is going to be in modernizing the old applications, which were written in a language that people don't use anymore. So this particular software can convert that into the newer language, which can do more, you know, unique things, or digitize your business a lot faster.

It's good to talk to Anna Ragrana about the comeback ground trip, if you will, in Amazon, off the pandemic euphoria. What a plunge in Amazon and almost back out to where it was. Oh, I think it was the end of twenty two as well. Some of the roller coasters of artificial intelligence. We're getting ready for earning season Netflix this afternoon. Look to Tim Stevanovic and Carol Masser. They'll have all of that for you on Bloomberg Radio here in the afternoon. But then we really dive into the beginning of a blended industrial and also the technology earnings that we see at the end of April into well May second is Apple among others as well. So it's into earning season to see where we fit in this great bull market. We are on Apple car Play, download the Bloomberg Business app, also out on Google. I should say, and that's building out nicely, but we are humbled by YouTube and what we've seen out there. Searched Bloomberg podcasts, look for Lisa Matteo and we're there. We're there, seven to ten. We're now rolling out the complete show as a digital file, which you'll see later in the morning. And of course the thoughts like this, like single best idea,

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