Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Let me give pause the hardcovers ninety nine douts. Okay, that's the way Peter Trueberitz rolls, he said, the London School of Economics definitive at LBJ in Texas, and of course with the Phalans Center at lc Peter, you're the first name I asked for. With all that we've seen this morning, where are we in a month? How does mister Putin respond to what we witnessed in the last seventy two hours.

Let me give pause the hardcovers ninety nine douts. Okay, that's the way Peter Trueberitz rolls, he said, the London School of Economics definitive at LBJ in Texas, and of course with the Phalans Center at lc Peter, you're the first name I asked for. With all that we've seen this morning, where are we in a month? How does mister Putin respond to what we witnessed in the last seventy two hours.

It's great to be with you. I can't believe they're charge in ninety nine bucks for that book. But in any event, you know, I think Putin is a pretty happy camper right now, especially after everything that unfolded last week, and of course, you know, in particular following the fiasco in the Oval office between Trump and and Zelenski. I think what has been underscored here for anybody that didn't really realize it is that Donald Trump doesn't have Kiev's back, and that has thrown everything into I don't know, like fast motion. I mean, what has happened in Europe, in London over the weekend has just been kind of as they try to figure out some kind of way to write reship.

It's great to be with you. I can't believe they're charge in ninety nine bucks for that book. But in any event, you know, I think Putin is a pretty happy camper right now, especially after everything that unfolded last week, and of course, you know, in particular following the fiasco in the Oval office between Trump and and Zelenski. I think what has been underscored here for anybody that didn't really realize it is that Donald Trump doesn't have Kiev's back, and that has thrown everything into I don't know, like fast motion. I mean, what has happened in Europe, in London over the weekend has just been kind of as they try to figure out some kind of way to write reship.

Okay, in your book Geopolitics and Democracy, Oxford University Press, you have a perfect phrase for this moment that all of our listeners and viewers feel, and that is reaping the whirlwind? Can the traditional processes the trueber Ritz is lectured on for decades, The Chathamhouse has talked about see a fire and all the rest. Peter can reaping this whirlwind? Can those traditional processes work or do we need something new?

Okay, in your book Geopolitics and Democracy, Oxford University Press, you have a perfect phrase for this moment that all of our listeners and viewers feel, and that is reaping the whirlwind? Can the traditional processes the trueber Ritz is lectured on for decades, The Chathamhouse has talked about see a fire and all the rest. Peter can reaping this whirlwind? Can those traditional processes work or do we need something new?

It's a great question, Tom, I mean, I would say right now the standard kinds of checks and balances are not in play. So the most obvious one when you think domestically, is Congress serving as a check on the president and so forth. To me, I think one of the most interesting parts of the developments in the Trump administration in Trump two point zero is the way that his cabinet positions have been filled. He is essentially structured. It's in such a way that everything is coming out of the Oval Office and there is no opportunity for any check or blocking coalition to emerge among his cabinet officials. Where are his generals? There's nothing horizontal there. And I will say internationally, I mean it seems to me with respect to the Allies, he's just got them on the run. I mean, he is leveraging America's market, and he is leveraging America's power to extract concessions. And what makes it very difficult, I think, from whether it's from Canada to the UK, to France to Germany, is they don't know where this will stop, and so there's no obvious kind of break there. The one place he's certain to get pushback is from Beijing.

It's a great question, Tom, I mean, I would say right now the standard kinds of checks and balances are not in play. So the most obvious one when you think domestically, is Congress serving as a check on the president and so forth. To me, I think one of the most interesting parts of the developments in the Trump administration in Trump two point zero is the way that his cabinet positions have been filled. He is essentially structured. It's in such a way that everything is coming out of the Oval Office and there is no opportunity for any check or blocking coalition to emerge among his cabinet officials. Where are his generals? There's nothing horizontal there. And I will say internationally, I mean it seems to me with respect to the Allies, he's just got them on the run. I mean, he is leveraging America's market, and he is leveraging America's power to extract concessions. And what makes it very difficult, I think, from whether it's from Canada to the UK, to France to Germany, is they don't know where this will stop, and so there's no obvious kind of break there. The one place he's certain to get pushback is from Beijing.

So are you surprised, Peter that there hasn't been any pushback from saying, oh, I don't know Congress on some of these policy pronouncements or what happened in you have the office last week.

So are you surprised, Peter that there hasn't been any pushback from saying, oh, I don't know Congress on some of these policy pronouncements or what happened in you have the office last week.

I'm disappointed. I'm not surprised, but i'm personally, you know, when I look at this and think about it in terms of what's good for the United States over the long haul, over the horizon, you know, I'm disappointed. By it, but I'm not surprised. I'm not surprised for at least two reasons. One is Donald Trump owns the Republican Party, and they're just people that are too afraid of stepping out of line. And I think that that for a lot of people, they think that the system can that is, the international system can, you know, basically suffer a fair amount of I don't know what you want to call it, like damage. So yeah, okay, so they imposes tariffs and the tariff rates overall go up, the world won't come to an end. I mean, it seems to me that even you know, big names on Wall Street like Jamie Diamond have gotten themselves to that point so that they're prepared to see some kind of slippage from the traditional rules based order that Republican and Democratic presidents alike agreed to.

I'm disappointed. I'm not surprised, but i'm personally, you know, when I look at this and think about it in terms of what's good for the United States over the long haul, over the horizon, you know, I'm disappointed. By it, but I'm not surprised. I'm not surprised for at least two reasons. One is Donald Trump owns the Republican Party, and they're just people that are too afraid of stepping out of line. And I think that that for a lot of people, they think that the system can that is, the international system can, you know, basically suffer a fair amount of I don't know what you want to call it, like damage. So yeah, okay, so they imposes tariffs and the tariff rates overall go up, the world won't come to an end. I mean, it seems to me that even you know, big names on Wall Street like Jamie Diamond have gotten themselves to that point so that they're prepared to see some kind of slippage from the traditional rules based order that Republican and Democratic presidents alike agreed to.

Our Conversation of the Day with Peter Truutz we continue he's professor at the London School of Economics, barely defines his contribution to civics in America with his building of all the politics of the LBJ School at Texas as well.

Our Conversation of the Day with Peter Truutz we continue he's professor at the London School of Economics, barely defines his contribution to civics in America with his building of all the politics of the LBJ School at Texas as well.

Paul So Peter, we saw over the weekend, UK Prime Minister cure Starmer talk about forging a coalition of the willing to secure Ukraine? Is that even tell to us about that? How do you think about that?

Paul So Peter, we saw over the weekend, UK Prime Minister cure Starmer talk about forging a coalition of the willing to secure Ukraine? Is that even tell to us about that? How do you think about that?

Yeah, Paul, it's good question. I mean, it's possible, but if anything, it's anything but a given, I would say, And that's because any coalition that does emerge is likely to be a coalition of the unwilling, not rather than the willing. I mean, the crux of the problem here is that European leaders do not want to put boots on the ground as part of a peacekeeping force within Ukraine without a US security backstop in the form of you know, aircraft, anti missile batteries, intelligence data, satellite info. And Trump has basically thus far been unwilling to at least publicly commit to such a backstop. And I think, I mean, the other news item that's getting no attention today is he's got a meeting with the Mark Rubio and hetcof you know about what the response is going to be, and it seems like you know, the choices are between canceling or suspending. That's positive.

Yeah, Paul, it's good question. I mean, it's possible, but if anything, it's anything but a given, I would say, And that's because any coalition that does emerge is likely to be a coalition of the unwilling, not rather than the willing. I mean, the crux of the problem here is that European leaders do not want to put boots on the ground as part of a peacekeeping force within Ukraine without a US security backstop in the form of you know, aircraft, anti missile batteries, intelligence data, satellite info. And Trump has basically thus far been unwilling to at least publicly commit to such a backstop. And I think, I mean, the other news item that's getting no attention today is he's got a meeting with the Mark Rubio and hetcof you know about what the response is going to be, and it seems like you know, the choices are between canceling or suspending. That's positive.

I got to interrupt here, and this is this is totally unfair to you and not the way surveillance rules. But everyone's thinking about it, whatever they're politics, should the Secretary of State resign?

I got to interrupt here, and this is this is totally unfair to you and not the way surveillance rules. But everyone's thinking about it, whatever they're politics, should the Secretary of State resign?

So my view, and I've said this and I'm on the record, I believe he won't last very long. So and that's because it's pretty clear anybody that was watching on Friday or watched the Saturday Night Lives boof of It realizes that Marco Rubio is very uncomfortable, is basically pivoting one hundred and eighty degrees from things that he said about the war Putin's War in Ukraine two years ago, you know. And so the question is can he carry the brief and you know, you know or not? To me, he seems like he's not a particularly relevant player in the administration.

So my view, and I've said this and I'm on the record, I believe he won't last very long. So and that's because it's pretty clear anybody that was watching on Friday or watched the Saturday Night Lives boof of It realizes that Marco Rubio is very uncomfortable, is basically pivoting one hundred and eighty degrees from things that he said about the war Putin's War in Ukraine two years ago, you know. And so the question is can he carry the brief and you know, you know or not? To me, he seems like he's not a particularly relevant player in the administration.

Years ago, folks, you had to walk around campus if you wanted to be a girl magnet, you had to walk around with a black and white cover book Reagan's Legacy in a World Transformed and Young Troubowitz, Elliot Cohen's in the book, Paul Kanger, others Young Troubowitz is in there. The Balancer, Ronald Reagan, Party politics and US Grand Strategy. You're in a classroom right now, and that's smart. Alec Paul Sweeney's in the back row, half asleep, and he raises his hand, Professor, and he says, what's after Trump? Do you see a permanence to this Republican effort of the President of the United States, or do you look at Donald Trump as a one off?

Years ago, folks, you had to walk around campus if you wanted to be a girl magnet, you had to walk around with a black and white cover book Reagan's Legacy in a World Transformed and Young Troubowitz, Elliot Cohen's in the book, Paul Kanger, others Young Troubowitz is in there. The Balancer, Ronald Reagan, Party politics and US Grand Strategy. You're in a classroom right now, and that's smart. Alec Paul Sweeney's in the back row, half asleep, and he raises his hand, Professor, and he says, what's after Trump? Do you see a permanence to this Republican effort of the President of the United States, or do you look at Donald Trump as a one off?

I think the answer here is that it's possible. Look, States is very divided. We all know that, and not everybody agrees with this. If you look at the polling and so forth, the country is divided on so many of these questions. So it's quite possible that two years from now, you know, Trump, the Republicans lose the Congress, everything grinds to a halt, and a Democrat comes back in four years from now and tries to change things. But imagine this from the standpoint, this is the kind of thing I hear over here as an Americans talking to Europeans and so forth. What kind of credibility I mean, if this can happen, if it can happen, you know, if it can happen under Donald Trump, can happen at this point, and it happened four years ago, it could happen again. And I think these things have a kind of they're sticky, and it's hard to just turn things back. So I think what is happening is, you know, we're seeing parts the rules based order that has been in place more or less for eighty years. It's fraying, it's unraveling, and we're going to head into different territory.

I think the answer here is that it's possible. Look, States is very divided. We all know that, and not everybody agrees with this. If you look at the polling and so forth, the country is divided on so many of these questions. So it's quite possible that two years from now, you know, Trump, the Republicans lose the Congress, everything grinds to a halt, and a Democrat comes back in four years from now and tries to change things. But imagine this from the standpoint, this is the kind of thing I hear over here as an Americans talking to Europeans and so forth. What kind of credibility I mean, if this can happen, if it can happen, you know, if it can happen under Donald Trump, can happen at this point, and it happened four years ago, it could happen again. And I think these things have a kind of they're sticky, and it's hard to just turn things back. So I think what is happening is, you know, we're seeing parts the rules based order that has been in place more or less for eighty years. It's fraying, it's unraveling, and we're going to head into different territory.

It seems to me.

It seems to me.

Peter, you're a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. You're an American in London. How do our European allies, who have been our allies since World War Two? How do they perceive what's going on now? How concerned are they that eighty years of I guess relations and policy and strategies seem to be you know, kind of at risk here.

Peter, you're a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. You're an American in London. How do our European allies, who have been our allies since World War Two? How do they perceive what's going on now? How concerned are they that eighty years of I guess relations and policy and strategies seem to be you know, kind of at risk here.

Yeah, they're freaked out. I mean, look big, they have a war on their doorstep. You know, this is not the first time. Let me just say too, this is not the first time that an American president has put, if you will, the screws to Europe over security. Richard Nixon shut you know, tried to shake down America's allies back in the nineteen seventies. You Tom, you'll remember this, when he threatened to slash American troop presence there if they didn't start spending more on defense. But the difference between then and today is there wasn't an active war on Europe's doorsteps. So this really has their attention. But the question, you know Europe, is that the EU does not make a decision on a dime and like turn on a dime. So and they have trouble coming up with They've had trouble always coming up with coherent foreign policy, a security. I remember the day, not obviously they're going to get there.

Yeah, they're freaked out. I mean, look big, they have a war on their doorstep. You know, this is not the first time. Let me just say too, this is not the first time that an American president has put, if you will, the screws to Europe over security. Richard Nixon shut you know, tried to shake down America's allies back in the nineteen seventies. You Tom, you'll remember this, when he threatened to slash American troop presence there if they didn't start spending more on defense. But the difference between then and today is there wasn't an active war on Europe's doorsteps. So this really has their attention. But the question, you know Europe, is that the EU does not make a decision on a dime and like turn on a dime. So and they have trouble coming up with They've had trouble always coming up with coherent foreign policy, a security. I remember the day, not obviously they're going to get there.

I remember the day de Goaale wouldn't let American jets fly over France on their way to somewhere to bomb somebody. One final question, Professor trueber it's a good friend of the show. Robert Hormant's, with all of his public service, wrote a book ten years ago, The Price of Liberty, Paying for America's Wars. Harmant's grand theory out of Tufts is simple. If your fiscal house is an order, you can't get it done. Russia's fiscal house is not an order. Europe's fiscal house is not an order. Decidedly, America's fiscal house is not an order. How does that play out?

I remember the day de Goaale wouldn't let American jets fly over France on their way to somewhere to bomb somebody. One final question, Professor trueber it's a good friend of the show. Robert Hormant's, with all of his public service, wrote a book ten years ago, The Price of Liberty, Paying for America's Wars. Harmant's grand theory out of Tufts is simple. If your fiscal house is an order, you can't get it done. Russia's fiscal house is not an order. Europe's fiscal house is not an order. Decidedly, America's fiscal house is not an order. How does that play out?

I think the US has much more running room than the other two that you mentioned, and so you know, I mean the implication of what you're saying is that everybody will Each of these countries has an incentive to retrench. The problem here is some of Putin. If he sees the United States pulling back in Europe, that's exactly what he wants. He wants to be able to divide Europe from the United States. This is did not start with Putin. This was the old Soviet strategy as well. It's been Russian policy for a very long time. So he will double down if he sees that goal in site deficit or no deficit.

I think the US has much more running room than the other two that you mentioned, and so you know, I mean the implication of what you're saying is that everybody will Each of these countries has an incentive to retrench. The problem here is some of Putin. If he sees the United States pulling back in Europe, that's exactly what he wants. He wants to be able to divide Europe from the United States. This is did not start with Putin. This was the old Soviet strategy as well. It's been Russian policy for a very long time. So he will double down if he sees that goal in site deficit or no deficit.

I think thank you so much for the time. Peter Trubwitz at LC just definitive with an American political thought thinking forward the new effort. I can't say enough about it. Two arded some pages geopolitics and democracy from Trubwitz out of Oxford. Thank you so much.

I think thank you so much for the time. Peter Trubwitz at LC just definitive with an American political thought thinking forward the new effort. I can't say enough about it. Two arded some pages geopolitics and democracy from Trubwitz out of Oxford. Thank you so much.

This morning, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

This morning, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Joining us now Jack Divine with us. He's fond of the ARCA group, and as we had the other day with micknlloy, this is people that actually know what they're talking about. Jack Divine, thank you so much with your work at the Central Intelligence Agency. If I, as a hack say, do we tell diligence about what the Kremlin's thinking? Discuss that, do we know what's going on? Do we know what's going on in Moscow? Or do we know what's going on in Beijing?

Joining us now Jack Divine with us. He's fond of the ARCA group, and as we had the other day with micknlloy, this is people that actually know what they're talking about. Jack Divine, thank you so much with your work at the Central Intelligence Agency. If I, as a hack say, do we tell diligence about what the Kremlin's thinking? Discuss that, do we know what's going on? Do we know what's going on in Moscow? Or do we know what's going on in Beijing?

He always asked me tough questions. I hope so was the first answer. I think the key word in your question is thinking. There is I think the intelligence community knows where the armies are positioned, and the battlefield strategy and the latest weapons. Thinking has always been the toughest channel, the toughest, not the crack And sometimes we've been extraordinarily good at knowing what's going on, and other times not so well. So I'm hopeful that we are keeping up with the tradition, but I'm not betting on it.

He always asked me tough questions. I hope so was the first answer. I think the key word in your question is thinking. There is I think the intelligence community knows where the armies are positioned, and the battlefield strategy and the latest weapons. Thinking has always been the toughest channel, the toughest, not the crack And sometimes we've been extraordinarily good at knowing what's going on, and other times not so well. So I'm hopeful that we are keeping up with the tradition, but I'm not betting on it.

Hey, Jack, what did you make with a little bit of hindsight here? What do you make of what happened in the White House with the President of Zelensky and President Trump and Vice President in advance last week.

Hey, Jack, what did you make with a little bit of hindsight here? What do you make of what happened in the White House with the President of Zelensky and President Trump and Vice President in advance last week.

I think a lot of hundreds have been covering this, and from various I mean, I think if I stood back, I would say, first of all, this is a moment in time. This is not the endgame, right, and everyone's focused on the pieces here and at some point I'd like to go beyond that. But I think this is a question of people coming to the table not having primed the pump sufficiently to have the right time to discussion. And I think Zelinsky was arriving at the table with a list, his wish list, right, and putin sitting over at Moscow with a wish list. What they're not getting is the negotiations haven't really quite started. That starts when everybody agrees that they're going to be negotiation. So I think they jumped the gun here, and I think there was a lot of rievances and build up anxiety in the room across the broad spectrum. Obviously it wasn't the best start, but I think we moved. I think we're going to move quickly beyond that, because there's inevitability about where we end up.

I think a lot of hundreds have been covering this, and from various I mean, I think if I stood back, I would say, first of all, this is a moment in time. This is not the endgame, right, and everyone's focused on the pieces here and at some point I'd like to go beyond that. But I think this is a question of people coming to the table not having primed the pump sufficiently to have the right time to discussion. And I think Zelinsky was arriving at the table with a list, his wish list, right, and putin sitting over at Moscow with a wish list. What they're not getting is the negotiations haven't really quite started. That starts when everybody agrees that they're going to be negotiation. So I think they jumped the gun here, and I think there was a lot of rievances and build up anxiety in the room across the broad spectrum. Obviously it wasn't the best start, but I think we moved. I think we're going to move quickly beyond that, because there's inevitability about where we end up.

In my view, Jack, we've all kind of grown up here in this post World War two environment where there's a certain set of real relationships and policies. Is President Trump fundamentally changing those long held positions by the East and the.

In my view, Jack, we've all kind of grown up here in this post World War two environment where there's a certain set of real relationships and policies. Is President Trump fundamentally changing those long held positions by the East and the.

West we're looking at in the Trump administration is not a minor shift. I mean, I think everything, every aspect of moderate modern life and relationships is being put to put to a test, right, And the question is do we come out of it better at the end. But the one thing I'm absolutely convinced of is that we're entering this We're really entering the century now, this is really the beginning of the twenty first century. I think President Trump is the engine of major changes and relationships and evaluations. And so I think everything is on the table, and I think people are saying it sometimes we don't listen well, but you know, the administrations, everything's on the table. So I think when the deck is reshuffled. However, let's me just say that I think our alliance is our alliance is our enemy or our enemies. But how you handle it and where you go is the process of being worked out. And in the process when you have that type of change, this pain.

West we're looking at in the Trump administration is not a minor shift. I mean, I think everything, every aspect of moderate modern life and relationships is being put to put to a test, right, And the question is do we come out of it better at the end. But the one thing I'm absolutely convinced of is that we're entering this We're really entering the century now, this is really the beginning of the twenty first century. I think President Trump is the engine of major changes and relationships and evaluations. And so I think everything is on the table, and I think people are saying it sometimes we don't listen well, but you know, the administrations, everything's on the table. So I think when the deck is reshuffled. However, let's me just say that I think our alliance is our alliance is our enemy or our enemies. But how you handle it and where you go is the process of being worked out. And in the process when you have that type of change, this pain.

I look, Jack divine people at risk here, and part of the risk is the you know the cinema of Tom Hanks and the idea of a Berlin Wall or some form of divide an iron curtain, as we know from our ute. And the answer is, are we redeveloping with an isolationist America some form of new iron curtain.

I look, Jack divine people at risk here, and part of the risk is the you know the cinema of Tom Hanks and the idea of a Berlin Wall or some form of divide an iron curtain, as we know from our ute. And the answer is, are we redeveloping with an isolationist America some form of new iron curtain.

I don't think that's the trust. I think people are misreading what I think is happening. I think what we're looking at here is a negotiation to bring a war to an end where both parties really need to do that. I've been saying on your show for a couple of years. Once you get this stale meat, the cessation of firing, and then you get the some deal. You know too many people are thinking that Putin's holding really strong cards. He has nuclear weapons, but is the prospect of amusing it a very very emote. This is the word is not going well for every party, So how is it going to be reshuffled? And I think part of it will mean actually a lessening of friction if the deal, the art of the deal is executed is I think it may.

I don't think that's the trust. I think people are misreading what I think is happening. I think what we're looking at here is a negotiation to bring a war to an end where both parties really need to do that. I've been saying on your show for a couple of years. Once you get this stale meat, the cessation of firing, and then you get the some deal. You know too many people are thinking that Putin's holding really strong cards. He has nuclear weapons, but is the prospect of amusing it a very very emote. This is the word is not going well for every party, So how is it going to be reshuffled? And I think part of it will mean actually a lessening of friction if the deal, the art of the deal is executed is I think it may.

Be out of time. We got to get Jackson again, Thank you so much, really really appreciate it. With the ARC and group, just love having him and I got about eight more questions, but you know we can't do it.

Be out of time. We got to get Jackson again, Thank you so much, really really appreciate it. With the ARC and group, just love having him and I got about eight more questions, but you know we can't do it.

Yeah, he's seen it all time.

Yeah, he's seen it all time.

We'll have Jack Divine with his work at the CIA on again. Just incredible experience.

We'll have Jack Divine with his work at the CIA on again. Just incredible experience.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining us.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining us.

Saw Lori, Kelvissina, Piet you had a corner this Morne, you had a total bart some sameel done. We have to have Kelvacina. Why don't you bring her in? I have to You mean it was before I'd had my first tang and you were going nuts. We have to have Calvicina.

Saw Lori, Kelvissina, Piet you had a corner this Morne, you had a total bart some sameel done. We have to have Kelvacina. Why don't you bring her in? I have to You mean it was before I'd had my first tang and you were going nuts. We have to have Calvicina.

Now we got it, bring her out? How good is that? From the lawn at Charlottesville, Virginia. Lorie calvecein ahead of US Equity Strategy RBC Capital Markets, Lorii are you We've had We had a little bit of a draw down, as Tom would say, I kind of called a sell off back in the day. But the kids called a draw down you know, three four five percent over you know, the first part of the year. What did you make of that? And kind of how do you feel about just the market levels right here?

Now we got it, bring her out? How good is that? From the lawn at Charlottesville, Virginia. Lorie calvecein ahead of US Equity Strategy RBC Capital Markets, Lorii are you We've had We had a little bit of a draw down, as Tom would say, I kind of called a sell off back in the day. But the kids called a draw down you know, three four five percent over you know, the first part of the year. What did you make of that? And kind of how do you feel about just the market levels right here?

Sure, so thanks for having me on as always, And look, this has been a big point of discussion over the last few weeks. Our view has been that the market's overdue for a five to ten percent draw down from peak, and that is you know, I know that sounds scary, right, but we have done a whole bunch of those since twenty twenty two, and that's pretty much what a garden variety pullback has been in the post twenty twenty two era. If you think about sort of about our lows last week, we weren't even quite down five percent. And I was joking, you know, when I was talking to investors last week, the dip that we had felt a whole lot worse than it was in terms of the price action. We've started to see anxiety come back, you know, I think tariffs were finally starting to see people question the idea of whether or not they're actually a negotiation tactic. That was a big shift last week, and that helped push us to that kind of you know, four percent plus ish draw down level.

Sure, so thanks for having me on as always, And look, this has been a big point of discussion over the last few weeks. Our view has been that the market's overdue for a five to ten percent draw down from peak, and that is you know, I know that sounds scary, right, but we have done a whole bunch of those since twenty twenty two, and that's pretty much what a garden variety pullback has been in the post twenty twenty two era. If you think about sort of about our lows last week, we weren't even quite down five percent. And I was joking, you know, when I was talking to investors last week, the dip that we had felt a whole lot worse than it was in terms of the price action. We've started to see anxiety come back, you know, I think tariffs were finally starting to see people question the idea of whether or not they're actually a negotiation tactic. That was a big shift last week, and that helped push us to that kind of you know, four percent plus ish draw down level.

But look, you know, our base case.

But look, you know, our base case.

Has been that we could get to sixty six hundred on the SMP at the end of the year with at least one of those five to ten percent drawdowns. We never thought it was going to be an easy path. But I will tell you, you know, Paul, as we've been talking to investors about if that doesn't hold, what's next. You know, we do think the risks of a growth scare a fourteen to twenty percent draw down, similar to what we saw in twenty ten, twenty eleven, twenty fifteen, sixteen, and twenty eighteen when markets were fearful of a recession or a systemic issue that didn't end up quite happening. You know, we sort of got the fear, but we didn't get the event. We think those risks are starting to grow again. It's not in my base case, but if we're being intellectually honest with people, we think the risk of something worse than a ten percent draw down is starting to move up a little.

Has been that we could get to sixty six hundred on the SMP at the end of the year with at least one of those five to ten percent drawdowns. We never thought it was going to be an easy path. But I will tell you, you know, Paul, as we've been talking to investors about if that doesn't hold, what's next. You know, we do think the risks of a growth scare a fourteen to twenty percent draw down, similar to what we saw in twenty ten, twenty eleven, twenty fifteen, sixteen, and twenty eighteen when markets were fearful of a recession or a systemic issue that didn't end up quite happening. You know, we sort of got the fear, but we didn't get the event. We think those risks are starting to grow again. It's not in my base case, but if we're being intellectually honest with people, we think the risk of something worse than a ten percent draw down is starting to move up a little.

I mean, you know, folks out there, if you ever get an opportunity to get a meeting with Lori Cavalsina, take it because some really really good stuff. I'm looking at your chart book here, lots of good pictures. I like pictures because they help me understand things. But I kind of feel like earnings are as important as they've been for an equity market as they've been for a long time, because I don't think the Federal Reserve Laurie's going to do a lot for me this year. How do you feel about earnings?

I mean, you know, folks out there, if you ever get an opportunity to get a meeting with Lori Cavalsina, take it because some really really good stuff. I'm looking at your chart book here, lots of good pictures. I like pictures because they help me understand things. But I kind of feel like earnings are as important as they've been for an equity market as they've been for a long time, because I don't think the Federal Reserve Laurie's going to do a lot for me this year. How do you feel about earnings?

You know I'm the same way, Paul. I don't think we're going to get multiple expansion. I do think that the earnings growth outlook makes sense based on the information we have at the moment, but things could change, and I will tell you, as we've gone through and looked at what companies are saying about tariffs in particular, they really didn't start to have detailed discussions until after February first, the first deadline on Mexico and in Canada that passed. And if you look at what companies have said since then, some of them are starting to bake some tariff impacts into their guidance, but others are saying even some that have acknowledged it would be a significant hit to them haven't baked it into the numbers yet either. So we're sitting at two seventy one. You know, that's a healthy growth rate, but we do see some pressures on that starting to emerge. And you've seen the earning's expectations on the bottom up consensus drift lower a few bucks as this reporting season has gone on.

You know I'm the same way, Paul. I don't think we're going to get multiple expansion. I do think that the earnings growth outlook makes sense based on the information we have at the moment, but things could change, and I will tell you, as we've gone through and looked at what companies are saying about tariffs in particular, they really didn't start to have detailed discussions until after February first, the first deadline on Mexico and in Canada that passed. And if you look at what companies have said since then, some of them are starting to bake some tariff impacts into their guidance, but others are saying even some that have acknowledged it would be a significant hit to them haven't baked it into the numbers yet either. So we're sitting at two seventy one. You know, that's a healthy growth rate, but we do see some pressures on that starting to emerge. And you've seen the earning's expectations on the bottom up consensus drift lower a few bucks as this reporting season has gone on.

In our morning commute, Lori Kelvisina RBC Capital Markets on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Dazzled by the international reach there. Thank you so much across the evening Pacific rim the afternoon Europe for your attention to Bloomberg Surveillance and to Laurie Calvesina, Laurie, if I say to you we're in a bull market, and I say to you, corporations adapt, how will they adapt forward given the political noise.

In our morning commute, Lori Kelvisina RBC Capital Markets on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Dazzled by the international reach there. Thank you so much across the evening Pacific rim the afternoon Europe for your attention to Bloomberg Surveillance and to Laurie Calvesina, Laurie, if I say to you we're in a bull market, and I say to you, corporations adapt, how will they adapt forward given the political noise.

It's an interesting question, Tom, because we haven't really seen a big spate of downward guidance or upward guidance. I don't think companies know where to put the bar right now. And you know, we we sort of looked as we went through one week to the next in reporting season, it started out very optimistic, and that optimism really started to get eclipsed by uncertainty. And I wouldn't say there's pessimism among corporates. The conference boards CEO surveys certainly told us they're still feeling better than they were last fall. We don't really know from that survey how they compare now versus January. But you know, one thing that came to mind as we were talking to investors last week was going back to that twenty fifteen twenty sixteen in industrial recession where we had resilient consumers and then we had more pessimism in the corporate sector, especially that industrial and energy part of the economy, and it was just sort of an asynchronous business cycle. We had a bit of a market you know, pullback, but we we didn't really ever come close, you know, to kind of the recession capital our territory.

It's an interesting question, Tom, because we haven't really seen a big spate of downward guidance or upward guidance. I don't think companies know where to put the bar right now. And you know, we we sort of looked as we went through one week to the next in reporting season, it started out very optimistic, and that optimism really started to get eclipsed by uncertainty. And I wouldn't say there's pessimism among corporates. The conference boards CEO surveys certainly told us they're still feeling better than they were last fall. We don't really know from that survey how they compare now versus January. But you know, one thing that came to mind as we were talking to investors last week was going back to that twenty fifteen twenty sixteen in industrial recession where we had resilient consumers and then we had more pessimism in the corporate sector, especially that industrial and energy part of the economy, and it was just sort of an asynchronous business cycle. We had a bit of a market you know, pullback, but we we didn't really ever come close, you know, to kind of the recession capital our territory.

And so as we've watched some of these.

And so as we've watched some of these.

Consumer sentiment surveys slide and we've seen the contrast with the CEO levels of confidence have stayed much more resilient. You know, one point of conversation came off, well, maybe we're going to do something like the flip of that right where we have some consumer pressure but the corporate sector stays resilient. I'm not saying that's where we're headed necessarily, but it's one, you know, kind of idea and thought that started to emerge.

Consumer sentiment surveys slide and we've seen the contrast with the CEO levels of confidence have stayed much more resilient. You know, one point of conversation came off, well, maybe we're going to do something like the flip of that right where we have some consumer pressure but the corporate sector stays resilient. I'm not saying that's where we're headed necessarily, but it's one, you know, kind of idea and thought that started to emerge.

Laurie, I know. And I'm just going through your slide deck and wow, one hundred and fifty pages. I'm on page four refreshing.

Laurie, I know. And I'm just going through your slide deck and wow, one hundred and fifty pages. I'm on page four refreshing.

I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it gets too long.

I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it gets too long.

Francis Donald does not do one hundred and fifty page decks.

Francis Donald does not do one hundred and fifty page decks.

Yeah, it's like a six I'm plowing through it. You have a year end twenty twenty five s and p. Five hundred barecase of five thousand, seven hundred and seventy five? What would get you there? What would push it down?

Yeah, it's like a six I'm plowing through it. You have a year end twenty twenty five s and p. Five hundred barecase of five thousand, seven hundred and seventy five? What would get you there? What would push it down?

So we put that back.

So we put that back.

We put that out back in November, and we have refreshed the math around that, and there are a couple of ways that we could get there. One of them is not really worrisome to me right now. We have done some modeling on evaluation work. If we got ten year treasury yields up to five percent move up in inflation, that you know, when we did the math on that, right, that could have gotten us down to sort of the fifty six hundred ish type mark, which pulled that barecase down our sentiment work. Frankly, I mean centiment's so bad it's starting to be a good setup. On a twelve months forward basis, that would have pulled the number up a little bit. But the other thing, you know, putting the ten year yield issue aside, because we were taking the message right that the Treasury is really focused on keeping ten year yields lower. I think you have to look at economic growth, and this was one of the things we really focused on in our year ahead outlook was two percent GDP at the time was forecast for this year. That's now up to two three. Two to three a very very healthy environment for the stock market. It typically goes up you have strong gains, you know, and kind of the low teens ten percent ish type numbers. But if you slip into a one to two percent GDP environment, stocks are usually down more often than they're up, and we have on average about a three percent decline in the market in those kinds of years. So we worry that some of these economic headwinds could potentially start to push GDP expectations down, not a recession, but something like one and a half percent GDP.

We put that out back in November, and we have refreshed the math around that, and there are a couple of ways that we could get there. One of them is not really worrisome to me right now. We have done some modeling on evaluation work. If we got ten year treasury yields up to five percent move up in inflation, that you know, when we did the math on that, right, that could have gotten us down to sort of the fifty six hundred ish type mark, which pulled that barecase down our sentiment work. Frankly, I mean centiment's so bad it's starting to be a good setup. On a twelve months forward basis, that would have pulled the number up a little bit. But the other thing, you know, putting the ten year yield issue aside, because we were taking the message right that the Treasury is really focused on keeping ten year yields lower. I think you have to look at economic growth, and this was one of the things we really focused on in our year ahead outlook was two percent GDP at the time was forecast for this year. That's now up to two three. Two to three a very very healthy environment for the stock market. It typically goes up you have strong gains, you know, and kind of the low teens ten percent ish type numbers. But if you slip into a one to two percent GDP environment, stocks are usually down more often than they're up, and we have on average about a three percent decline in the market in those kinds of years. So we worry that some of these economic headwinds could potentially start to push GDP expectations down, not a recession, but something like one and a half percent GDP.

And I think Francis's number, by the way, is one to nine. You know it could push you into a troublesome territory.

And I think Francis's number, by the way, is one to nine. You know it could push you into a troublesome territory.

Markets do not like sluggish growth, so that's one way you could easily get there.

Markets do not like sluggish growth, so that's one way you could easily get there.

What do companies do given this strange thing, sluggish growth? Does M and A pick up among the Russell two thousand?

What do companies do given this strange thing, sluggish growth? Does M and A pick up among the Russell two thousand?

Well, look, I think we're we're seeing a slow start to M and A this year, and a lot of people are scratching their heads as.

Well, look, I think we're we're seeing a slow start to M and A this year, and a lot of people are scratching their heads as.

To why that will happen. You know, I think if you look at the.

To why that will happen. You know, I think if you look at the.

CEO confidence survey again from the conference board, they also showed that employment expectations came in just a little bit, so I think as economic, you know, sort of concerns emerge. You know, everyone's asked about capex. We haven't seen any shift in capex expectations in the survey data, but you have seen a little bit of ratcheting down on employment expectations, even given what we've had so far. And you know, you've also seen that sluggish start to M and A.

CEO confidence survey again from the conference board, they also showed that employment expectations came in just a little bit, so I think as economic, you know, sort of concerns emerge. You know, everyone's asked about capex. We haven't seen any shift in capex expectations in the survey data, but you have seen a little bit of ratcheting down on employment expectations, even given what we've had so far. And you know, you've also seen that sluggish start to M and A.

We have a good chart.

We have a good chart.

I forget what pagees on in the deck, but it shows you that M and A overtime does tend to track CEO confidence.

I forget what pagees on in the deck, but it shows you that M and A overtime does tend to track CEO confidence.

I can't remember where any of the pages are. I'm not gonna lie.

I can't remember where any of the pages are. I'm not gonna lie.

Sance as donald as a six page deck. Okay, Russell two thousand, I'm down thirteen percent in the vicinity of December fifteenth, Laurie, I'm down fourteen percent on Russell two thousand and forty percent annualize, and I've strapped two standard deviations plus all the way down negative two standard deviations. Is it Russell two thousand in a bear market?

Sance as donald as a six page deck. Okay, Russell two thousand, I'm down thirteen percent in the vicinity of December fifteenth, Laurie, I'm down fourteen percent on Russell two thousand and forty percent annualize, and I've strapped two standard deviations plus all the way down negative two standard deviations. Is it Russell two thousand in a bear market?

So, I mean, the Russell has been under pressure for so long, and we've had nothing but you know, sort of short term trades in and then the momentum fizzles out. It's really been jerked around by hedge fund trading and passive investments in the last year and a half. And we've seen you know, hedge funds in particular dialing up their optimism on the small caps when fed duvishness was picking up, and when fed hawkishness was coming back there dial down. And then we got to the election and they started getting dialed up on election optimism.

So, I mean, the Russell has been under pressure for so long, and we've had nothing but you know, sort of short term trades in and then the momentum fizzles out. It's really been jerked around by hedge fund trading and passive investments in the last year and a half. And we've seen you know, hedge funds in particular dialing up their optimism on the small caps when fed duvishness was picking up, and when fed hawkishness was coming back there dial down. And then we got to the election and they started getting dialed up on election optimism.

I think the problem you've got for small caps right.

I think the problem you've got for small caps right.

Now is that you do you have had some valuation problems, You've had some frothiness. If you look at the positioning data from CFTC. We are starting to see the valuation data unwind We've gotten down to average on the long term pe for ther for the Russell two thousand. That often can mark the bottom, but if you have a real economic problem on your hand, you'll go to eleven, thirteen times or fifteen times.

Now is that you do you have had some valuation problems, You've had some frothiness. If you look at the positioning data from CFTC. We are starting to see the valuation data unwind We've gotten down to average on the long term pe for ther for the Russell two thousand. That often can mark the bottom, but if you have a real economic problem on your hand, you'll go to eleven, thirteen times or fifteen times.

Right now, we had been up almost molost to nineteen.

Right now, we had been up almost molost to nineteen.

If you look at positioning, we've got a lot more room to fall. And in the meantime, we've got a lot of economic headwinds that are coming at this space, and you need economic tailwinds to come back, or at least a recession priced in to really want to buy this space. So I think it's, you know, interesting stuff happening here, but it still feels a little early to me.

If you look at positioning, we've got a lot more room to fall. And in the meantime, we've got a lot of economic headwinds that are coming at this space, and you need economic tailwinds to come back, or at least a recession priced in to really want to buy this space. So I think it's, you know, interesting stuff happening here, but it still feels a little early to me.

And the magic of Bloomberg surveillance. So Laurie's talk and I'm going to page one oh six of her stack and I'm doing Russell two thousand log linear standard deviation for the depths of two thousand and nine, and she beautifully describes we're only down one standard deviation on the long term log chart. We got a ways to go to get down to the anks of two standards audiation. Let's see.

And the magic of Bloomberg surveillance. So Laurie's talk and I'm going to page one oh six of her stack and I'm doing Russell two thousand log linear standard deviation for the depths of two thousand and nine, and she beautifully describes we're only down one standard deviation on the long term log chart. We got a ways to go to get down to the anks of two standards audiation. Let's see.

So, Laurie, what do we do here? What's the I mean, we're pretty much through the earnings. We're going to get some some retailers this week. But what did you learn from this earnings cycle here? And maybe some of the guidance.

So, Laurie, what do we do here? What's the I mean, we're pretty much through the earnings. We're going to get some some retailers this week. But what did you learn from this earnings cycle here? And maybe some of the guidance.

So I'll tell you the sector.

So I'll tell you the sector.

And maybe it's on my mind because RBC has a conference coming up on this tomorrow, but I still like the financial sector in here, so I'm going to be, you know, really interested to hear what those companies have.

And maybe it's on my mind because RBC has a conference coming up on this tomorrow, but I still like the financial sector in here, so I'm going to be, you know, really interested to hear what those companies have.

To say the next couple of days. But look, as we did.

To say the next couple of days. But look, as we did.

Go through reporting season, one thing that became very clear to me was that financials, you know, they've got some tailwinds in terms of the policy backdrop from deregulation, and so the companies have absolutely been talking about that, but they're not really exposed, at least directly to a lot of the headwinds that might potentially be coming. So, you know, tariff impacts, you know, it impacts the economy, right, so we'll we'll end up here as well, but they're not.

Go through reporting season, one thing that became very clear to me was that financials, you know, they've got some tailwinds in terms of the policy backdrop from deregulation, and so the companies have absolutely been talking about that, but they're not really exposed, at least directly to a lot of the headwinds that might potentially be coming. So, you know, tariff impacts, you know, it impacts the economy, right, so we'll we'll end up here as well, but they're not.

On the front lines of this debate.

On the front lines of this debate.

We've still got some good valuations, especially in the smaller calf financial sector, especially with the banks I would say the investment banks where the M and A optimism is overdone, those look pricey. We're not really buying those, but we do think kind of the plain vanilla, you know, sort of regional banks and smid banks looked pretty good in here. And they also don't have dollar pressure, they don't get caught up and where the currency is headed right, So we still like that space.

We've still got some good valuations, especially in the smaller calf financial sector, especially with the banks I would say the investment banks where the M and A optimism is overdone, those look pricey. We're not really buying those, but we do think kind of the plain vanilla, you know, sort of regional banks and smid banks looked pretty good in here. And they also don't have dollar pressure, they don't get caught up and where the currency is headed right, So we still like that space.

And of course Gerard is still very bullish.

And of course Gerard is still very bullish.

There, Laurie, very quickly here we are great observation out on YouTube. Thank you for the live chat. Brilliance, Laurie. The Russell two thousand has a lot of stocks that don't make money. How do we address that, the lack of profit down the income statement of so many of those two thousand stocks.

There, Laurie, very quickly here we are great observation out on YouTube. Thank you for the live chat. Brilliance, Laurie. The Russell two thousand has a lot of stocks that don't make money. How do we address that, the lack of profit down the income statement of so many of those two thousand stocks.

The simple answer, Tom, and nobody likes this answer, but you buy an actively managed small cap fund as opposed to the ETF. And when I talked to active managers in the small cap space, and I've been covering this space since two thousand and seven, I know a lot of these folks very very well. They don't tend to traffic in the unprofitable names. They tend to move up the quality curve. They really do have sort of a nose for finding the good companies, and I think that's really how you combat it, right as you just have to have individuals going in and picking the better companies within verticals, within industries, within sectors. Because there is a lot of illiquidity, there are a lot of companies with loss makers, and there are goofy you know, sort of industry exposures, lots of reads, lots of biotech, lots of unprofitable tech. An active manager can help you navigate around that.

The simple answer, Tom, and nobody likes this answer, but you buy an actively managed small cap fund as opposed to the ETF. And when I talked to active managers in the small cap space, and I've been covering this space since two thousand and seven, I know a lot of these folks very very well. They don't tend to traffic in the unprofitable names. They tend to move up the quality curve. They really do have sort of a nose for finding the good companies, and I think that's really how you combat it, right as you just have to have individuals going in and picking the better companies within verticals, within industries, within sectors. Because there is a lot of illiquidity, there are a lot of companies with loss makers, and there are goofy you know, sort of industry exposures, lots of reads, lots of biotech, lots of unprofitable tech. An active manager can help you navigate around that.

Laurie, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. What do you have?

Laurie, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. What do you have?

Tom Lorid Calvacina, a resident of the Lawn at the University of Virginia that is for reserve for the most I think you know some of the more accomplished students there. You have to be a senior that type of thing. There's only fifty four single rooms on the lawn. Each room is furnished with a lofted bed ladder above a day bed with a cover, secretary desk with a chair, a hutch containing refrigerator in freezer and a microwave built in closet, seen closet, and a rocking chair.

Tom Lorid Calvacina, a resident of the Lawn at the University of Virginia that is for reserve for the most I think you know some of the more accomplished students there. You have to be a senior that type of thing. There's only fifty four single rooms on the lawn. Each room is furnished with a lofted bed ladder above a day bed with a cover, secretary desk with a chair, a hutch containing refrigerator in freezer and a microwave built in closet, seen closet, and a rocking chair.

I gave a speech there one day and I sat not in the early morning, missed, but pretty close like ninety everybody's asleep. Calvaciana was passed out. But it has to be the most spectacularly gorgeous piece of collegiate real estate in America.

I gave a speech there one day and I sat not in the early morning, missed, but pretty close like ninety everybody's asleep. Calvaciana was passed out. But it has to be the most spectacularly gorgeous piece of collegiate real estate in America.

Yep.

Yep.

My good buddy from high school, Robbe Stewart, he had a room at the on the lawn there at the Senior UVA. It's really really a special place. And if you get a room on the lawn, that means you're accomplishing.

My good buddy from high school, Robbe Stewart, he had a room at the on the lawn there at the Senior UVA. It's really really a special place. And if you get a room on the lawn, that means you're accomplishing.

Closest I got to the lawn was at the Rochester Institute of Technology where there's winter in the fourth of July. The closest was to walk across the quarter mile when it was twenty two below zero. That was as close as we got to the romance of the lawn.

Closest I got to the lawn was at the Rochester Institute of Technology where there's winter in the fourth of July. The closest was to walk across the quarter mile when it was twenty two below zero. That was as close as we got to the romance of the lawn.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

You're a Skur report the Daily front Pages. Okay, Lisa Ariana shows up and a Chiaparelli was I mean, so she'd go right to the costume institute at the met It just deserves to be in the basement. It was like completely not modern, is how I know.

You're a Skur report the Daily front Pages. Okay, Lisa Ariana shows up and a Chiaparelli was I mean, so she'd go right to the costume institute at the met It just deserves to be in the basement. It was like completely not modern, is how I know.

I love she looked like a little princess, like on the red carpet, Like it's like when you open that jewelry box and the little ballerina process.

I love she looked like a little princess, like on the red carpet, Like it's like when you open that jewelry box and the little ballerina process.

To shut Chiaparelli. It wasn't poofy, it wasn't cheap.

To shut Chiaparelli. It wasn't poofy, it wasn't cheap.

It was just it was beautiful.

It was just it was beautiful.

I loved it, loved it, lovedly.

I loved it, loved it, lovedly.

I throw that you wore it today to work?

I throw that you wore it today to work?

What do you got? All Right, I'm gonna kind of pull an audible here. I was going to do the story about the montage and the people that were kind of left out are the ones who the actors who died because you had a Michelle Trachtenberg, Shannon Dougherty, Yes, yes, surveillance audible. I'm going to go to this Lucas Shaw piece because I just find it so interesting about you know, Disney being the host of it for like fifty years for the for the Oscars, but now you see that it's starting to change. Because he has this article in screen time. You have to check it out about possibly them talking with Netflix maybe of being the next partner, because last year, you know, they were reopening that deal was worth more than one hundred million dollars a year. But that negotiating between the two sides, it's it's it's it's open. So now they have these talks going on. So I thought this was really interesting about how Netflix could be it because then you think about streaming and how streaming is going to a lot of more live events. So if this is going to be like another way for them, if that's what.

What do you got? All Right, I'm gonna kind of pull an audible here. I was going to do the story about the montage and the people that were kind of left out are the ones who the actors who died because you had a Michelle Trachtenberg, Shannon Dougherty, Yes, yes, surveillance audible. I'm going to go to this Lucas Shaw piece because I just find it so interesting about you know, Disney being the host of it for like fifty years for the for the Oscars, but now you see that it's starting to change. Because he has this article in screen time. You have to check it out about possibly them talking with Netflix maybe of being the next partner, because last year, you know, they were reopening that deal was worth more than one hundred million dollars a year. But that negotiating between the two sides, it's it's it's it's open. So now they have these talks going on. So I thought this was really interesting about how Netflix could be it because then you think about streaming and how streaming is going to a lot of more live events. So if this is going to be like another way for them, if that's what.

They need, that's where the world's going. So I mean, you know, you've got to see some of these big ticket items and again the next big one of the next big things in addition to these whole broadcast like the Oscars, is you know, live sports at the NFL and things things like that.

They need, that's where the world's going. So I mean, you know, you've got to see some of these big ticket items and again the next big one of the next big things in addition to these whole broadcast like the Oscars, is you know, live sports at the NFL and things things like that.

But the thing I noticed last night, missus Kean wrote this up addicted to all this idiocy, like Lisa is is is Paul? Streaming is completely taking short. I mean this year they didn't have Oppenheimer and Barbie period.

But the thing I noticed last night, missus Kean wrote this up addicted to all this idiocy, like Lisa is is is Paul? Streaming is completely taking short. I mean this year they didn't have Oppenheimer and Barbie period.

Right right.

Right right.

I mean you just look where the where the programming budgets are going from some of the big companies like A Walt Disney Company. They're all going to their streaming services. What do you see on your network television? You see a lot of you know, just not a lot of scripted drama. They're just not allocating the budgets. So they're putting all their money in streaming.

I mean you just look where the where the programming budgets are going from some of the big companies like A Walt Disney Company. They're all going to their streaming services. What do you see on your network television? You see a lot of you know, just not a lot of scripted drama. They're just not allocating the budgets. So they're putting all their money in streaming.

Is streaming a movie? Yeah?

Is streaming a movie? Yeah?

Sure, absolutely, we can do that. Okay, so why not? That's where everybody's going, what.

Sure, absolutely, we can do that. Okay, so why not? That's where everybody's going, what.

Do you Yeah?

Do you Yeah?

And it was also talking about how like the box office numbers for all the Best Picture nominees was like forty percent lower and last year Yeah, I don't know.

And it was also talking about how like the box office numbers for all the Best Picture nominees was like forty percent lower and last year Yeah, I don't know.

Forty one million worldwide.

Forty one million worldwide.

Yes, I haven't even heard of it. So that's that's going to be on my list. Okay, let's move on the gift bags. Okay, that's what I want to talk about, because the nominees, yes, so didn't take home the oscars. They did not go home empty handed. They were carrying along a two hundred and sixteen thousand dollars bag.

Yes, I haven't even heard of it. So that's that's going to be on my list. Okay, let's move on the gift bags. Okay, that's what I want to talk about, because the nominees, yes, so didn't take home the oscars. They did not go home empty handed. They were carrying along a two hundred and sixteen thousand dollars bag.

Are you.

Are you.

There were gift bags from distinctive assets, mostly experiences that kind of make up the value. So you have like light bo Suction from art Light both twenty five thousand dollars. Okay, five nights at a Sri Lankan Wellness Retreat for about eighty five hundred dollars, four nights at Jolly Metaldives and Jolly Being for twenty three thousand.

There were gift bags from distinctive assets, mostly experiences that kind of make up the value. So you have like light bo Suction from art Light both twenty five thousand dollars. Okay, five nights at a Sri Lankan Wellness Retreat for about eighty five hundred dollars, four nights at Jolly Metaldives and Jolly Being for twenty three thousand.

Right, is that what it is?

Right, is that what it is?

Did I pronounce these.

Did I pronounce these.

Fancy in historia?

Fancy in historia?

Quickly? Give me give me one more merch.

Quickly? Give me give me one more merch.

Okay, one more merch item Oh did you know a three month top tier ancestry DNA membership is twenty five thousand dollars?

Okay, one more merch item Oh did you know a three month top tier ancestry DNA membership is twenty five thousand dollars?

Really?

Really?

Yes, that one's in there too.

Yes, that one's in there too.

Just tell me all my ancestors came from Ireland.

Just tell me all my ancestors came from Ireland.

Of all the beauty products and all that most sober, exactly.

Of all the beauty products and all that most sober, exactly.

Thank so, Thank you so much, Lisa Matteo their words, Chaparrelli this morning with your oscar a summer. We'll do some more newspapers tomorrow. Hugely popular.

Thank so, Thank you so much, Lisa Matteo their words, Chaparrelli this morning with your oscar a summer. We'll do some more newspapers tomorrow. Hugely popular.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal