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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. She's been speaking to Jerome poll all morning. We speak Claudia Sam of Michigan about this report. Claudia, this changes the dialogue for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. She's been speaking to Jerome poll all morning. We speak Claudia Sam of Michigan about this report. Claudia, this changes the dialogue for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System.

The FED is going to look at one month and just kind of take it in context of what we've seen recently. Yeah, this month, you know, these are not great numbers. It's a disappointment. I certainly looked at that unemployment rate and yet we have seen solid gains. This does not change the story. And honestly, at the FED and a lot of places, all eyes are still on the CPI and the inflation prints. We still have an economy that's really moving in a labor market that's still working well, although not in the way that we've seen last year where it was still just going really strong.

The FED is going to look at one month and just kind of take it in context of what we've seen recently. Yeah, this month, you know, these are not great numbers. It's a disappointment. I certainly looked at that unemployment rate and yet we have seen solid gains. This does not change the story. And honestly, at the FED and a lot of places, all eyes are still on the CPI and the inflation prints. We still have an economy that's really moving in a labor market that's still working well, although not in the way that we've seen last year where it was still just going really strong.

I know they're going to be day dependent, but I know that everybody listening across the nation and watching it on YouTube wants to know from Claudia Sam the recession metric. Now, you haven't had time to go out state by state and readjust your acclaimed rule. But we had a number of people this morning suggesting part of America is in recession. Is that true?

I know they're going to be day dependent, but I know that everybody listening across the nation and watching it on YouTube wants to know from Claudia Sam the recession metric. Now, you haven't had time to go out state by state and readjust your acclaimed rule. But we had a number of people this morning suggesting part of America is in recession. Is that true?

No, that's not true. The recession indicator that I put together this is you know, it's calibrated. It's you know, looking at the national recessions that we've seen, there are times where we have disruptions at you know, local levels. Industry bases can be really important in an area like California with teg and so you can see states or localities move in one way that the rest of the economy isn't. It's important to look at increases in unemployment rate. These are not good and yet we don't we shouldn't think of that as a recession a problem.

No, that's not true. The recession indicator that I put together this is you know, it's calibrated. It's you know, looking at the national recessions that we've seen, there are times where we have disruptions at you know, local levels. Industry bases can be really important in an area like California with teg and so you can see states or localities move in one way that the rest of the economy isn't. It's important to look at increases in unemployment rate. These are not good and yet we don't we shouldn't think of that as a recession a problem.

Claudia, sign with us right now. With markets moving, we had a lot of red on the screen. We've now lifted constructively. Small caps go up four tenths of a percent of Russell two thousand. Lorii Calvacina to join us later about now, in this eight o'clock hour, we come to you commercial free across Apple, car play and YouTube, Bloomberg podcasts.

Claudia, sign with us right now. With markets moving, we had a lot of red on the screen. We've now lifted constructively. Small caps go up four tenths of a percent of Russell two thousand. Lorii Calvacina to join us later about now, in this eight o'clock hour, we come to you commercial free across Apple, car play and YouTube, Bloomberg podcasts.

And Claudia.

And Claudia.

Just again, from the headline perspective, I think what's jumping out for a lot of people just looking at various reporting here is that headline unemployment rate of three point nine percent.

Just again, from the headline perspective, I think what's jumping out for a lot of people just looking at various reporting here is that headline unemployment rate of three point nine percent.

And there's an.

And there's an.

Argument to me that the FED would, in fact, you know, doesn't mind seeing that number go up because that may give them some maybe more ammunition.

Argument to me that the FED would, in fact, you know, doesn't mind seeing that number go up because that may give them some maybe more ammunition.

To cut rates. How do you think about that argument?

To cut rates. How do you think about that argument?

Well, first, it's not a flashing red number. The recession indicator. The SSAM rule takes the three month average. I mean this is, you know, conceptually we should do this on any data release. And right now that SAM rule is up twenty six bases points and the trigger is fifty yeah. Right, so we are still far away from you know, red alert territory. You never want to see it go up. We saw sometimes last year where it did and then it got revised away. So this is not good news. But this is not just you know, hair on fire kind of news, and it shouldn't change anything the Fed is thinking today. That's just how they look at the data.

Well, first, it's not a flashing red number. The recession indicator. The SSAM rule takes the three month average. I mean this is, you know, conceptually we should do this on any data release. And right now that SAM rule is up twenty six bases points and the trigger is fifty yeah. Right, so we are still far away from you know, red alert territory. You never want to see it go up. We saw sometimes last year where it did and then it got revised away. So this is not good news. But this is not just you know, hair on fire kind of news, and it shouldn't change anything the Fed is thinking today. That's just how they look at the data.

So let me translate it for you out on YouTube live chat, doctor Sam just said Tom Keene was wrong.

So let me translate it for you out on YouTube live chat, doctor Sam just said Tom Keene was wrong.

Okay, just relax.

Okay, just relax.

Hey, how about these revisions here to the prior month. I mean it's almost almost a forty percent revision down in that headline change in non farm payrolls.

Hey, how about these revisions here to the prior month. I mean it's almost almost a forty percent revision down in that headline change in non farm payrolls.

Did their spreadsheets just not work last month?

Did their spreadsheets just not work last month?

No, the Bureau Labor Statistics knows what they're doing. You know, it's hard. We have an over twenty five trillion dollar economy, we have hundreds of millions of people working. It's really tough to get a good read. And when you think about it, we get that first read on the labor market like within weeks of the Beuer of Labor Statistics doing those surveys. So this we're gonna have noise. These are not I mean again downward revisions taking away a big number. That's not good, right. We'd like to see, you know, big numbers going all the way forward, and yet it's not surprising. Measurement has been very hard throughout this whole cycle, and frankly, we get revisions like this, it's.

No, the Bureau Labor Statistics knows what they're doing. You know, it's hard. We have an over twenty five trillion dollar economy, we have hundreds of millions of people working. It's really tough to get a good read. And when you think about it, we get that first read on the labor market like within weeks of the Beuer of Labor Statistics doing those surveys. So this we're gonna have noise. These are not I mean again downward revisions taking away a big number. That's not good, right. We'd like to see, you know, big numbers going all the way forward, and yet it's not surprising. Measurement has been very hard throughout this whole cycle, and frankly, we get revisions like this, it's.

Not unusual on a death stile basis. Or I'll let you go. You can divide by fists or ten so death style, folks, is ten percent of the people out there, is the way I'm using this here. Are we lump and polarized in our labor economy, Claudia or can you say it's one America and you can aggregate as Allan Meltzer lectured me years ago.

Not unusual on a death stile basis. Or I'll let you go. You can divide by fists or ten so death style, folks, is ten percent of the people out there, is the way I'm using this here. Are we lump and polarized in our labor economy, Claudia or can you say it's one America and you can aggregate as Allan Meltzer lectured me years ago.

It really depends what you're looking at. I will say this labor market has worked for more of the death styles than usual. The recovery has been and the wage gains that have been made, there's a lot of it at the bottom. Yeah, they were starting from a very low place, so that's not necessarily saying a lot. But this has been a more quote unquote inclusive recovery than we have seen in a very very long time. And the labor market is still in a very good place for low wage workers, women, immigrants, people in marginalized groups. I mean, you name it. This has been a very inclusive. There's a lot of winds to go around.

It really depends what you're looking at. I will say this labor market has worked for more of the death styles than usual. The recovery has been and the wage gains that have been made, there's a lot of it at the bottom. Yeah, they were starting from a very low place, so that's not necessarily saying a lot. But this has been a more quote unquote inclusive recovery than we have seen in a very very long time. And the labor market is still in a very good place for low wage workers, women, immigrants, people in marginalized groups. I mean, you name it. This has been a very inclusive. There's a lot of winds to go around.

Now.

Now.

If you ask people, they may not be feeling the winds, and you ask businesses, they may not be feeling the winds. This has been very disruptive. This has been a real slog, Paul.

If you ask people, they may not be feeling the winds, and you ask businesses, they may not be feeling the winds. This has been very disruptive. This has been a real slog, Paul.

I'm looking here and it's unfair to you and Claudia, but I got the Bloomberg termine in front of me doing fancy mathematics and the moving averages to doctor, doctor, some folks is correct. I use three moving averages. I'm not going to go into the math of it. And they're not gloomy down the world's coming to an end. The operative word is their flat flattering. We're just moving along on a summed moving average basis, as Claudia. Sam nailed there at eight thirty one.

I'm looking here and it's unfair to you and Claudia, but I got the Bloomberg termine in front of me doing fancy mathematics and the moving averages to doctor, doctor, some folks is correct. I use three moving averages. I'm not going to go into the math of it. And they're not gloomy down the world's coming to an end. The operative word is their flat flattering. We're just moving along on a summed moving average basis, as Claudia. Sam nailed there at eight thirty one.

Claudia.

Claudia.

We also saw the labor four participation rate. It's kind of come in at sixty two point five percent, kind of steady. Give us context for that number.

We also saw the labor four participation rate. It's kind of come in at sixty two point five percent, kind of steady. Give us context for that number.

That number is so important, like that's the piece of coming out of the big disruptions. I mean, I think four years ago we had millions of people leaving the labor market because of the pandemic, because of care responsibility, I mean it just that was so justive and we have not on the population as a whole, gotten back to where we were four years ago. And yet we've made a lot of progress. Prime age people in their prime working years, they're back. We've made a lot of really turning the corner last year on the recovery was coming from more workers. We solved a labor shortage with more labor and not fewer customers. The FED can only do the second one, and we got workers back. So that's one that's really important, and we have to keep building on those games, and we absolutely have to keep them so steady as she goes. There's that's very important, and the FED is very much watching that number.

That number is so important, like that's the piece of coming out of the big disruptions. I mean, I think four years ago we had millions of people leaving the labor market because of the pandemic, because of care responsibility, I mean it just that was so justive and we have not on the population as a whole, gotten back to where we were four years ago. And yet we've made a lot of progress. Prime age people in their prime working years, they're back. We've made a lot of really turning the corner last year on the recovery was coming from more workers. We solved a labor shortage with more labor and not fewer customers. The FED can only do the second one, and we got workers back. So that's one that's really important, and we have to keep building on those games, and we absolutely have to keep them so steady as she goes. There's that's very important, and the FED is very much watching that number.

We got the luxury here. We can do this out of Michigan with Claudia. Some it's International Women's Day. Some people talk, others do, and Claudia sam is one of those that has not talked but done, and also someone named Bee Stevenson Betsy Stevenson as well at Michigan. Claudia review the boom that we saw on women's employment i'll say thirty years ago and the changes now and how that folds into Paul's good question on labor participation. What's the women dynamic that we've seen pre pandemic, into this awful pandemic and now out of it.

We got the luxury here. We can do this out of Michigan with Claudia. Some it's International Women's Day. Some people talk, others do, and Claudia sam is one of those that has not talked but done, and also someone named Bee Stevenson Betsy Stevenson as well at Michigan. Claudia review the boom that we saw on women's employment i'll say thirty years ago and the changes now and how that folds into Paul's good question on labor participation. What's the women dynamic that we've seen pre pandemic, into this awful pandemic and now out of it.

We saw gains for women before the pandemic. I remember that was a really good expansion. We were in a good place and COVID took a lot away from us. And what we've seen is we've come into this recovery, particularly the past few years. We're back on track and we are at a point. Last year women's employment women in their prime working years hit all time highs. This has been a generation's long progress to give women the opportunity those who want to to work, and we're seeing it and it's really important. There were some thin silver linings that came out of COVID. It's very clear from research that the work from home technology has helped open up flexibility for women to be working. We have an economy with a lot of we're getting more and more part time jobs. People with caregiving responsibilities often need flexibility. They're getting it, wages, I mean, you name it. We're making progress. It's been slow, right, shouldn't be a twenty twenty three story, but we are making progress and that's a real testament to an economy that is working.

We saw gains for women before the pandemic. I remember that was a really good expansion. We were in a good place and COVID took a lot away from us. And what we've seen is we've come into this recovery, particularly the past few years. We're back on track and we are at a point. Last year women's employment women in their prime working years hit all time highs. This has been a generation's long progress to give women the opportunity those who want to to work, and we're seeing it and it's really important. There were some thin silver linings that came out of COVID. It's very clear from research that the work from home technology has helped open up flexibility for women to be working. We have an economy with a lot of we're getting more and more part time jobs. People with caregiving responsibilities often need flexibility. They're getting it, wages, I mean, you name it. We're making progress. It's been slow, right, shouldn't be a twenty twenty three story, but we are making progress and that's a real testament to an economy that is working.

So we had a red headline just crossing tape. Recently, FED swaps priced an additional FED easing in twenty twenty four on jobs data, Claudia, does that seem reasonable to you?

So we had a red headline just crossing tape. Recently, FED swaps priced an additional FED easing in twenty twenty four on jobs data, Claudia, does that seem reasonable to you?

Maybe a little bit of an overreaction.

Maybe a little bit of an overreaction.

My heart goes out to people that really need to get this right because of their jobs. I mean, this is the FED does not know what the FED is going to do right because they do not have the data. Jpowe. Every FED official has told us over and over again they are not confident yet they need more data. Now. There are subtle differences in what they tell us about how close they are to confident or not. It's reading the tea leaves. If you don't have a really good FED speak Dakota ring, good luck right, Like this is not again like we were talking about. I look at these numbers and.

My heart goes out to people that really need to get this right because of their jobs. I mean, this is the FED does not know what the FED is going to do right because they do not have the data. Jpowe. Every FED official has told us over and over again they are not confident yet they need more data. Now. There are subtle differences in what they tell us about how close they are to confident or not. It's reading the tea leaves. If you don't have a really good FED speak Dakota ring, good luck right, Like this is not again like we were talking about. I look at these numbers and.

I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa. Do you have a Dakota ring for the Fed?

I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa. Do you have a Dakota ring for the Fed?

Well that's what working over a decade at the FED gets you. I mean, you know, like you listen to the FED speak right. When yesterday j Powell said not too far right from getting confident. I was like, eh, I mean, I was happy to hear it, but not too far in FED land can be many months.

Well that's what working over a decade at the FED gets you. I mean, you know, like you listen to the FED speak right. When yesterday j Powell said not too far right from getting confident. I was like, eh, I mean, I was happy to hear it, but not too far in FED land can be many months.

Is he is?

Is he is?

He is he wobbly need? Pardon me, he's wobbling need. Senator Warrant Warren went after regulation that he's weak need or wobblely need or right or whatever. I mean, they really went after him yesterday.

He is he wobbly need? Pardon me, he's wobbling need. Senator Warrant Warren went after regulation that he's weak need or wobblely need or right or whatever. I mean, they really went after him yesterday.

Claudia, Yeah, no, it's but that's their job. I mean, those hearings are for Congress to hold the FED accountable. They should be asking the Fed tough questions. If they're not, we have a big problem in terms of FED accountability.

Claudia, Yeah, no, it's but that's their job. I mean, those hearings are for Congress to hold the FED accountable. They should be asking the Fed tough questions. If they're not, we have a big problem in terms of FED accountability.

Then there was Senator Kennedy from Louisiana.

Then there was Senator Kennedy from Louisiana.

Yes, Claudia, thank you so much. Claudia's I'm very I love doing this right now. And this goes, folks to how we piece the show together. Three four or five days ago, I said, to the great team we've got working twenty four to seven, just get Calvisina. I just want to talk to her about the markets. And I get that twenty years trailing, ten years trailing the Russell two thousand is underperformed in video. I mean as a generalization or the magnificent whatever. But I said, get the magnificent Calvisina on because if you go back to twenty nineteen, if the Russell two thousand just gives me a seventeen percent pop or right back to record his Laurie, thank you so much for joining us with RBC Capital Markets. To me, small caps are sort of malign. Now they're actually doing better than the zeitgeist? Do I have that right?

Yes, Claudia, thank you so much. Claudia's I'm very I love doing this right now. And this goes, folks to how we piece the show together. Three four or five days ago, I said, to the great team we've got working twenty four to seven, just get Calvisina. I just want to talk to her about the markets. And I get that twenty years trailing, ten years trailing the Russell two thousand is underperformed in video. I mean as a generalization or the magnificent whatever. But I said, get the magnificent Calvisina on because if you go back to twenty nineteen, if the Russell two thousand just gives me a seventeen percent pop or right back to record his Laurie, thank you so much for joining us with RBC Capital Markets. To me, small caps are sort of malign. Now they're actually doing better than the zeitgeist? Do I have that right?

You're right, Tom, And you know, look, I was travel I've been prouding pretty much since the last week of January, and I got to the end of February, wrote my weekly, and I realized that actually in February, small cats had outperform large caps, and if you looked at the relative ratio between small and large, it bottomed on February seventh, And I would not have known that. And I didn't know that just purely based on all the conversations I was having with investors in February, because it was like small caps are stuck in the dumps. After that great November and December, they've gone right back in the toilet again, and all the while they were slowly and stealthily crawling their way off to the bottom.

You're right, Tom, And you know, look, I was travel I've been prouding pretty much since the last week of January, and I got to the end of February, wrote my weekly, and I realized that actually in February, small cats had outperform large caps, and if you looked at the relative ratio between small and large, it bottomed on February seventh, And I would not have known that. And I didn't know that just purely based on all the conversations I was having with investors in February, because it was like small caps are stuck in the dumps. After that great November and December, they've gone right back in the toilet again, and all the while they were slowly and stealthily crawling their way off to the bottom.

Is there a leg here, folks, By the way, without commercial interruption here or thrilled dev Lori Kelvissina here to get us forward, Laurie, when everything's said and done, is now the time for Russell two thousand? After this nice leg up? Can you say you've got the energy the bid to get out to record highs on Russell two thousand up seventeen percent from here?

Is there a leg here, folks, By the way, without commercial interruption here or thrilled dev Lori Kelvissina here to get us forward, Laurie, when everything's said and done, is now the time for Russell two thousand? After this nice leg up? Can you say you've got the energy the bid to get out to record highs on Russell two thousand up seventeen percent from here?

So I think we can if a couple of things fall into place. So I think November and December, I think that trade was all about anticipating the FED rate cut. So I think that part of the story is done. Small caps were maligned last year for their you know what, aren't really that bad, but we're perceived as being bad balance sheets and fears the FED was never going to cut. Well, that expectation has shifted. If you look at positioning data, if you look at Russell two thousand PE data, we're basically back up to either you know, kind of averages on the PE or three year highs on the positioning. But we're not at all time highs. We're kind of a middle endings trade just on a basis of valuation and positioning. I think what's very interesting is that today, with this jobs report, you've seen small cap futures actually respond more sharply to the upside than large cap futures, at least initially off the print. I think what small caps are starting to react to in February is the idea that the economy is just hotter than anticipated. And typically we see that when the economy is running about trend, and trend is about two point six percent on real GDP. When you're above that two point six percent threshold, small caps beat large caps. And if we're we've been kind of around two percent. If we can get closer to trend and convince the market that we're in a sustainably hot economy, I think small caps.

So I think we can if a couple of things fall into place. So I think November and December, I think that trade was all about anticipating the FED rate cut. So I think that part of the story is done. Small caps were maligned last year for their you know what, aren't really that bad, but we're perceived as being bad balance sheets and fears the FED was never going to cut. Well, that expectation has shifted. If you look at positioning data, if you look at Russell two thousand PE data, we're basically back up to either you know, kind of averages on the PE or three year highs on the positioning. But we're not at all time highs. We're kind of a middle endings trade just on a basis of valuation and positioning. I think what's very interesting is that today, with this jobs report, you've seen small cap futures actually respond more sharply to the upside than large cap futures, at least initially off the print. I think what small caps are starting to react to in February is the idea that the economy is just hotter than anticipated. And typically we see that when the economy is running about trend, and trend is about two point six percent on real GDP. When you're above that two point six percent threshold, small caps beat large caps. And if we're we've been kind of around two percent. If we can get closer to trend and convince the market that we're in a sustainably hot economy, I think small caps.

Are really going to shine, all right, So small caps are going to shine any sectors that we should be focused on here, if in fact the economy is going to hang in there, we're going to have, you know, kind of some reduction rates.

Are really going to shine, all right, So small caps are going to shine any sectors that we should be focused on here, if in fact the economy is going to hang in there, we're going to have, you know, kind of some reduction rates.

So one of the sectors that does tend to do well when we see consumer confidence improving if you look at the Michigan sentiment data, and this is really true across the market. Caps struck him, But I would say financials and if you think about small cap in particular, we've been talking about two areas that are more on the cyclical side. One is consumer discretionary. It is a sector that tends to do well coming off of a recession low and I am not in the recession camp by any stretch, but if you sort of think about the zeitgeist of you know, just having a better economic outlook, consumer discretionary stocks tend to do well. And we've also just seen they're very cheap and small cap relative to large cap. I also have been talking to people a lot about how consumers, you know, our economis have done a very good job of showing how the economy and consumers at large, especially the high end or less sensitive to short to short term rates. But I do think the lower end consumer is still affected by short term rates being high, and so if you get some relief there, I think that should help lower end consumers, and I think that should also help the small cap consumer discretionary companies.

So one of the sectors that does tend to do well when we see consumer confidence improving if you look at the Michigan sentiment data, and this is really true across the market. Caps struck him, But I would say financials and if you think about small cap in particular, we've been talking about two areas that are more on the cyclical side. One is consumer discretionary. It is a sector that tends to do well coming off of a recession low and I am not in the recession camp by any stretch, but if you sort of think about the zeitgeist of you know, just having a better economic outlook, consumer discretionary stocks tend to do well. And we've also just seen they're very cheap and small cap relative to large cap. I also have been talking to people a lot about how consumers, you know, our economis have done a very good job of showing how the economy and consumers at large, especially the high end or less sensitive to short to short term rates. But I do think the lower end consumer is still affected by short term rates being high, and so if you get some relief there, I think that should help lower end consumers, and I think that should also help the small cap consumer discretionary companies.

So I know from your notes in the past or you had a fifty one, fifty twenty twenty four SMP five hundred target, we're pretty much there right now a little bit higher than there. Does it need to take a look at that and maybe think about where that possibly could go higher.

So I know from your notes in the past or you had a fifty one, fifty twenty twenty four SMP five hundred target, we're pretty much there right now a little bit higher than there. Does it need to take a look at that and maybe think about where that possibly could go higher.

Yeah, so it's a great question. We've been talking about that a lot as well in our recent meeting. So the fifty one to fifty is basically the median and the average of five different models that we use. The most conservative one of those models is rapidly improving, and that's basically our GDP test, which says, you know, historically stocks don't do that great and kind of flat to two percent type GDP years. But of course we're right on the cusp of that of two percent. So that model is starting to improve and head in a better direction. Our sentiment work has also been restraining our enthusiasm a little bit. Aaii net bowls have been seeing right around one standard deviation. You're usually flat over the next three months when you get that, and so I keep looking for this pullback that hasn't happened. But frankly, our valuation model is what we've been talking about most in meetings. This one was spot on last year. It was telling you to look for twenty one to twenty two times trailing pe in the market and forty seven to forty eight hundred. I did not listen to it enough. Maybe I'm going to be guilty of that again this year. Right now, that model, which bakes in forecasts for inflation interest rates in GDP, is anticipating about fifty four hundred and a pe of over twenty three times on the S and P at the end of this year. So that's the one that points you to the bowl case, Laurie.

Yeah, so it's a great question. We've been talking about that a lot as well in our recent meeting. So the fifty one to fifty is basically the median and the average of five different models that we use. The most conservative one of those models is rapidly improving, and that's basically our GDP test, which says, you know, historically stocks don't do that great and kind of flat to two percent type GDP years. But of course we're right on the cusp of that of two percent. So that model is starting to improve and head in a better direction. Our sentiment work has also been restraining our enthusiasm a little bit. Aaii net bowls have been seeing right around one standard deviation. You're usually flat over the next three months when you get that, and so I keep looking for this pullback that hasn't happened. But frankly, our valuation model is what we've been talking about most in meetings. This one was spot on last year. It was telling you to look for twenty one to twenty two times trailing pe in the market and forty seven to forty eight hundred. I did not listen to it enough. Maybe I'm going to be guilty of that again this year. Right now, that model, which bakes in forecasts for inflation interest rates in GDP, is anticipating about fifty four hundred and a pe of over twenty three times on the S and P at the end of this year. So that's the one that points you to the bowl case, Laurie.

I was just wondering, in terms of leadership here, the technology as long as we can remember, technology has been the leadership here and Tom's been calling.

I was just wondering, in terms of leadership here, the technology as long as we can remember, technology has been the leadership here and Tom's been calling.

Out in Nvidia and what a tremendous move it's had there.

Out in Nvidia and what a tremendous move it's had there.

Still the case is, do we need technology to continue to be the market leader here?

Still the case is, do we need technology to continue to be the market leader here?

I don't think you do. And I've actually been debating this with one of my colleagues internally, and this kind of goes back to the idea of small cap versus large cap. And look, I'm not going to make a comment on anyone's stock. You know, some of my clients have joke that the Mag seven is turning to the Mag one. But the reality is that if you just take a little bit of market cap out of those top seven names, out of that Mag seven, you know, just take a rain drop. It's a blood if you take that, you know, think of it as water you take that you put into the Rustle two thousand. It's really enormous in percentage terms, and I think that's what the way we have to think about it. I don't think you have to get bearish on the prior leadership, just say, hey, there are some other parts of the market that deserve a bit of a catch up trade. And one chart we've been having a lot of luck with. I know I talked to you guys about this a few weeks ago. It's just some bloomberg data that your team is put together that tracks mag seven expectations on earnings and compares those to the rest of the S and P and that gap on consensus forecast. And these are not my numbers, this is just what's south there from the stock pickers is shrinking to less than three percent for twenty twenty five. I continue to show that chart in most meetings, and I'm finding clients are kind of coming around to the idea of the earnings growth advantage is just dissipating. And if you continue to boost GDP forecasts Rustle two thousand, rest of the S and P, those earnings forecasts are going to pick up.

I don't think you do. And I've actually been debating this with one of my colleagues internally, and this kind of goes back to the idea of small cap versus large cap. And look, I'm not going to make a comment on anyone's stock. You know, some of my clients have joke that the Mag seven is turning to the Mag one. But the reality is that if you just take a little bit of market cap out of those top seven names, out of that Mag seven, you know, just take a rain drop. It's a blood if you take that, you know, think of it as water you take that you put into the Rustle two thousand. It's really enormous in percentage terms, and I think that's what the way we have to think about it. I don't think you have to get bearish on the prior leadership, just say, hey, there are some other parts of the market that deserve a bit of a catch up trade. And one chart we've been having a lot of luck with. I know I talked to you guys about this a few weeks ago. It's just some bloomberg data that your team is put together that tracks mag seven expectations on earnings and compares those to the rest of the S and P and that gap on consensus forecast. And these are not my numbers, this is just what's south there from the stock pickers is shrinking to less than three percent for twenty twenty five. I continue to show that chart in most meetings, and I'm finding clients are kind of coming around to the idea of the earnings growth advantage is just dissipating. And if you continue to boost GDP forecasts Rustle two thousand, rest of the S and P, those earnings forecasts are going to pick up.

Thanks, So much, Lori Kelvisina with this, Ellen Zetner joins us. Right now, I'm going to cut to the chase my chart of the week from many people, including your shop. It's suddenly indications of a decline in wage growth. Are we going to see in this report tangible lessening of wage growth that rolls over into it ECI wages and benefits that finally falls back to twenty nineteen levels?

Thanks, So much, Lori Kelvisina with this, Ellen Zetner joins us. Right now, I'm going to cut to the chase my chart of the week from many people, including your shop. It's suddenly indications of a decline in wage growth. Are we going to see in this report tangible lessening of wage growth that rolls over into it ECI wages and benefits that finally falls back to twenty nineteen levels?

Yes, I think we continue to see wage growth under pressure. You know, in average hourly earnings, it's the mix effect, who's who are we creating jobs for that that can bounce that around. But you know, we're not expecting a material slowing on the year over year. But you create a lot more service sector jobs than expected at lower wages, and you will get a further decline in growth and average hourly earnings. But as you said, the employment cost index is what really matters, and labor compensation is slowing, and that means that your buying power for consumers are slowing. It means that your wage pressures that companies would be concerned about continues to recede. And so I think you know that underpins what should be a slowing economy. This year, But I do still think that we're set up for probably stronger growth than people are expecting, even though.

Yes, I think we continue to see wage growth under pressure. You know, in average hourly earnings, it's the mix effect, who's who are we creating jobs for that that can bounce that around. But you know, we're not expecting a material slowing on the year over year. But you create a lot more service sector jobs than expected at lower wages, and you will get a further decline in growth and average hourly earnings. But as you said, the employment cost index is what really matters, and labor compensation is slowing, and that means that your buying power for consumers are slowing. It means that your wage pressures that companies would be concerned about continues to recede. And so I think you know that underpins what should be a slowing economy. This year, But I do still think that we're set up for probably stronger growth than people are expecting, even though.

Slower unemployment rate of three point seven percent, that's kind of the headline that feels like full employment. Is that kind of misleading on I mean, if I'm the President Biden, I'm taking a huge victory lapp here.

Slower unemployment rate of three point seven percent, that's kind of the headline that feels like full employment. Is that kind of misleading on I mean, if I'm the President Biden, I'm taking a huge victory lapp here.

Yeah. Well, all of these jobs numbers are something that the president can take victory lap around, and I'm sure he'll take advantage of that. I mean, we do have a lot of people employed while still creating a lot more jobs. And I think when you've got the population growing this fast, I think when you've got immigration growing this fast and the labor force growing this fast, you can create a lot of jobs and keep the unemployment rate lower than what normally would be the case.

Yeah. Well, all of these jobs numbers are something that the president can take victory lap around, and I'm sure he'll take advantage of that. I mean, we do have a lot of people employed while still creating a lot more jobs. And I think when you've got the population growing this fast, I think when you've got immigration growing this fast and the labor force growing this fast, you can create a lot of jobs and keep the unemployment rate lower than what normally would be the case.

There's been some concerns raised about where the jobs are being created here. Maybe they're in they're concentrated in healthcare and some other areas. Is that a viable concern here, that maybe there's not a greater dispersion of workforce creation.

There's been some concerns raised about where the jobs are being created here. Maybe they're in they're concentrated in healthcare and some other areas. Is that a viable concern here, that maybe there's not a greater dispersion of workforce creation.

Yeah, So we like to see diffusion across broad sectors, right. Typically, later in a cycle, you start to get diffusion to come in and you're only you're putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. I've not been as concerned about diffusion coming in as some others. I think a lot of the job surprises or in sectors where we should be having surprises, where supply still we still needed to backfill a lot of labor, and a lot of it is, you know, immigration flows that are going into the top sectors that they typically go into, manufacturing, construction, retail, and leisure and hospitality.

Yeah, So we like to see diffusion across broad sectors, right. Typically, later in a cycle, you start to get diffusion to come in and you're only you're putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. I've not been as concerned about diffusion coming in as some others. I think a lot of the job surprises or in sectors where we should be having surprises, where supply still we still needed to backfill a lot of labor, and a lot of it is, you know, immigration flows that are going into the top sectors that they typically go into, manufacturing, construction, retail, and leisure and hospitality.

You had a modeled recession a million years ago. It seems now not that long ago, but there it was. And the great credit to Ellen Zetner and your team is you change that way before anybody else did and said, you know what, it's just not as gloomy as we thought, and we've seen this huge prosperity. Why have we seen this prosperity? Is it just stimulus or is there another answer?

You had a modeled recession a million years ago. It seems now not that long ago, but there it was. And the great credit to Ellen Zetner and your team is you change that way before anybody else did and said, you know what, it's just not as gloomy as we thought, and we've seen this huge prosperity. Why have we seen this prosperity? Is it just stimulus or is there another answer?

Well, the five trillion dollars in stimulus doesn't hurt.

Well, the five trillion dollars in stimulus doesn't hurt.

I strongly support.

I strongly support.

That it doesn't hurt, but that fiscal impulse doesn't last forever. But as that fiscal impulse was fading, what we had put in place, sound Pol sees to boost infrastructure spending, to boost efficiencies in manufacturing facilities, to boost you know, clean green energy spending, and so it's been another type of fiscal impulse as opposed to just what we think of as traditional stimulus. And so that's still flowing through the economy. At the same time, we've had incredible flows of immigration, and yes, undocumented immigration, but they work and they earn and they demand and the economy is benefiting from that as well. And so the Fed has had to raise rates much further and faster than I think anyone had expected. We have survived that, and largely because of the gradual transformation of household balance sheets into a very low fixed rate from years and years and years of near zero interest rates. And so it's just this confluence of factors that means that the cycle cann and I didn't even mention productivity, which is, you know, all of this is culminated into a twenty twenty three that was much stronger growth than expected, a larger deceleration in inflation than expected, and that can continue to a lesser degree. That can continue this year.

That it doesn't hurt, but that fiscal impulse doesn't last forever. But as that fiscal impulse was fading, what we had put in place, sound Pol sees to boost infrastructure spending, to boost efficiencies in manufacturing facilities, to boost you know, clean green energy spending, and so it's been another type of fiscal impulse as opposed to just what we think of as traditional stimulus. And so that's still flowing through the economy. At the same time, we've had incredible flows of immigration, and yes, undocumented immigration, but they work and they earn and they demand and the economy is benefiting from that as well. And so the Fed has had to raise rates much further and faster than I think anyone had expected. We have survived that, and largely because of the gradual transformation of household balance sheets into a very low fixed rate from years and years and years of near zero interest rates. And so it's just this confluence of factors that means that the cycle cann and I didn't even mention productivity, which is, you know, all of this is culminated into a twenty twenty three that was much stronger growth than expected, a larger deceleration in inflation than expected, and that can continue to a lesser degree. That can continue this year.

And now, folks, with the sun up every longer day and looking at NCAA March bandits and all we go to Ellen Zetner for what matters In April? Do you fish the Yellowstone River in Montana? I mean, have you done that? You've done every other river in the West.

And now, folks, with the sun up every longer day and looking at NCAA March bandits and all we go to Ellen Zetner for what matters In April? Do you fish the Yellowstone River in Montana? I mean, have you done that? You've done every other river in the West.

It's like prime season we.

It's like prime season we.

Do like the pre runoff season that's closer to Mother's Day. When you want to hit that, it means that Mom is angry. But mom understands.

Do like the pre runoff season that's closer to Mother's Day. When you want to hit that, it means that Mom is angry. But mom understands.

Mom understands if.

Mom understands if.

Fly fishing is important, but you have to hit it just before the runoff.

Fly fishing is important, but you have to hit it just before the runoff.

The run off the st So the runoff.

The run off the st So the runoff.

Is when the snow melts and the rivers blow out. So you got to hit it before the runoff off and then you have to wait and then you come back after everything received.

Is when the snow melts and the rivers blow out. So you got to hit it before the runoff off and then you have to wait and then you come back after everything received.

Are you like Canson? When did you call up you know Ted and the rest of the crew at Morgan Stanley And so I'm sorry the seer has got the twelve feet of snow and is that like the best fishing every.

Are you like Canson? When did you call up you know Ted and the rest of the crew at Morgan Stanley And so I'm sorry the seer has got the twelve feet of snow and is that like the best fishing every.

Unfortunately it's a heavy conference time and in April May that's very heavy conference times.

Unfortunately it's a heavy conference time and in April May that's very heavy conference times.

You know.

You know.

So uh no, so I but but you know what, believe me, I'll get a lot. I'll get a lot done this summer. Okay, jackson holl Well, I see you around Jacksonville.

So uh no, so I but but you know what, believe me, I'll get a lot. I'll get a lot done this summer. Okay, jackson holl Well, I see you around Jacksonville.

Is a snow good for fly fishing.

Is a snow good for fly fishing.

Snow is excellent for fly fishing. You need a lot of it so that in the summer there's a lot of runoff and the river stay healthy.

Snow is excellent for fly fishing. You need a lot of it so that in the summer there's a lot of runoff and the river stay healthy.

It should be good this year.

It should be good this year.

Then on the podcast, I want fly fishing on the podcast. I don't care what she says about the job.

Then on the podcast, I want fly fishing on the podcast. I don't care what she says about the job.

I don't know. You and I came on when I started doing radio in two thousand and three with you, Tom, You and Ken Ken and I would talk fly fish.

I don't know. You and I came on when I started doing radio in two thousand and three with you, Tom, You and Ken Ken and I would talk fly fish.

You talked about it.

You talked about it.

He also loved it, and you gave us the stink guy because you did.

He also loved it, and you gave us the stink guy because you did.

Not like that at that right.

Not like that at that right.

I don't know.

I don't know.

I don't know if folks have noticed, but Tom does not like the attention being taken away from him.

I don't know if folks have noticed, but Tom does not like the attention being taken away from him.

No, trout, the size of your leg? Are they really that big?

No, trout, the size of your leg? Are they really that big?

They can be, yeah, they can.

They can be, yeah, they can.

Like, what's the biggest fish you've ever caught?

Like, what's the biggest fish you've ever caught?

Oh, gosh, I've only I've caught up to twenty four inches, but you can get up to thirty two, which would be really trophy size. Yeah.

Oh, gosh, I've only I've caught up to twenty four inches, but you can get up to thirty two, which would be really trophy size. Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Do you have like fish plastic up in the walls? Like the whole living room fish.

Do you have like fish plastic up in the walls? Like the whole living room fish.

No, No, we don't. Yeah, I don't have a lot of fishing decorations, but we have an entire We took a kitchen and turned it into a fly fishing closet, okay, and so all of our equipment is in there.

No, No, we don't. Yeah, I don't have a lot of fishing decorations, but we have an entire We took a kitchen and turned it into a fly fishing closet, okay, and so all of our equipment is in there.

Yeah. Ellen, thank you so much. There's a user can use. Folks coming up. She'll be in the nine o'clock hour in a week or two as we look a tour of her fly fishing kitchen. Ellen's that on this job's day. Really interesting there about the productivity of the nation. Joining us right now, Cameron Dawson, she is with new Age's new Edge Wells. She's given us just wonderful perspective on the equity markets, and we're all nodding. On another day of Nvidia up. I looked at price to sales and we're at the sill. It's it's surreal.

Yeah. Ellen, thank you so much. There's a user can use. Folks coming up. She'll be in the nine o'clock hour in a week or two as we look a tour of her fly fishing kitchen. Ellen's that on this job's day. Really interesting there about the productivity of the nation. Joining us right now, Cameron Dawson, she is with new Age's new Edge Wells. She's given us just wonderful perspective on the equity markets, and we're all nodding. On another day of Nvidia up. I looked at price to sales and we're at the sill. It's it's surreal.

The key thing with Nvidia, though, and this is the exception, is that it's earning Sestiments for twenty twenty five are up by four x over the last year, which has been a key driver of why the stock has moved up so much. You can't say the same thing about all the other semi condition Apple, You certainly can't. Their estimates have been flat. But even a name like Broadcom, its estimates are up twenty five percent for twenty twenty five, And so it does raise the point that some names are going up because earnings are going up a lot. Other names have that multiple expansion. That's part of the of the lift, and that's where things could become more precarious if the earnings estimate revisions slow down. But we're not seeing that slow down in estimate revisions yet.

The key thing with Nvidia, though, and this is the exception, is that it's earning Sestiments for twenty twenty five are up by four x over the last year, which has been a key driver of why the stock has moved up so much. You can't say the same thing about all the other semi condition Apple, You certainly can't. Their estimates have been flat. But even a name like Broadcom, its estimates are up twenty five percent for twenty twenty five, And so it does raise the point that some names are going up because earnings are going up a lot. Other names have that multiple expansion. That's part of the of the lift, and that's where things could become more precarious if the earnings estimate revisions slow down. But we're not seeing that slow down in estimate revisions yet.

All right, let's brought it out to the market camera. Do we need these big tech names to drive this market higher? Or can other parts financials, industrials, other parts of the market move this market higher?

All right, let's brought it out to the market camera. Do we need these big tech names to drive this market higher? Or can other parts financials, industrials, other parts of the market move this market higher?

Who's going to lead this.

Who's going to lead this.

The lesson from twenty twenty two is that you need the biggest weights in the index to work if the index overall is going to work. There were pockets in twenty twenty two that did very well, stuff like energy, but tech was down a lot, and thus the market was down. So when it is such a big weight in the index, it has to participate.

The lesson from twenty twenty two is that you need the biggest weights in the index to work if the index overall is going to work. There were pockets in twenty twenty two that did very well, stuff like energy, but tech was down a lot, and thus the market was down. So when it is such a big weight in the index, it has to participate.

So do we do we stick with these names? Do we add to these names? Do we start new positions in these names? How do we get some exposure here.

So do we do we stick with these names? Do we add to these names? Do we start new positions in these names? How do we get some exposure here.

I think that you respect the momentum, but we have to be very aware that we're seeing parabolic moves higher. I'd add a book to your book of the Summer List, which is Walter Demer's sometime when it comes out to buy, you won't want to. He has a page in there that says parabolic advances do not end by moving sideways. They end by the reverse parabolic down or straight lines down. It's a quote from Bob Ferrell. So I think that we have to keep that in mind. When you see advances this sharp, they typically don't end in a nice way.

I think that you respect the momentum, but we have to be very aware that we're seeing parabolic moves higher. I'd add a book to your book of the Summer List, which is Walter Demer's sometime when it comes out to buy, you won't want to. He has a page in there that says parabolic advances do not end by moving sideways. They end by the reverse parabolic down or straight lines down. It's a quote from Bob Ferrell. So I think that we have to keep that in mind. When you see advances this sharp, they typically don't end in a nice way.

Okay, but not yet.

Okay, but not yet.

Yeap, and good morning to mister Demer. Of course, esteemed in a Putnam investments over the years. This is ancient history Putnam up in Boston. I got to ask you about Samu I brought this up twice this week. I'm gonna bring you in. I'm giving Samuel Way too much love. I mean, he doesn't deserve it. He had a spectacular essay that went beyond the normal blah blah blah about active versus passive, and particularly the time continue in which Cameron, You've been wonderful one, not short term idiocy, getting out one year, getting up two year. Why should I be in an active fun if I've got a four toh one K and a three year five year perspective.

Yeap, and good morning to mister Demer. Of course, esteemed in a Putnam investments over the years. This is ancient history Putnam up in Boston. I got to ask you about Samu I brought this up twice this week. I'm gonna bring you in. I'm giving Samuel Way too much love. I mean, he doesn't deserve it. He had a spectacular essay that went beyond the normal blah blah blah about active versus passive, and particularly the time continue in which Cameron, You've been wonderful one, not short term idiocy, getting out one year, getting up two year. Why should I be in an active fun if I've got a four toh one K and a three year five year perspective.

I think that the active versus pass passive debate should be one that is on a spectrum instead of a black and white. And what I mean by that is that there are certain indices where passive makes a lot of sense because they are so concentrated. Look at the Russell one thousand growth, where fifty percent is in the top ten names. You look to the value index, though only twenty percent is in the top ten names, even smaller for small caps, even smaller for international. What that tells you is that you have a lot more shots on goal to add value through stock selection in less concentrated indices. And so I think that when we think about active versus passive, that's where you're saying, let's pick our spots carefully and use that fee budget carefully if we're going to be paying up for active management, all.

I think that the active versus pass passive debate should be one that is on a spectrum instead of a black and white. And what I mean by that is that there are certain indices where passive makes a lot of sense because they are so concentrated. Look at the Russell one thousand growth, where fifty percent is in the top ten names. You look to the value index, though only twenty percent is in the top ten names, even smaller for small caps, even smaller for international. What that tells you is that you have a lot more shots on goal to add value through stock selection in less concentrated indices. And so I think that when we think about active versus passive, that's where you're saying, let's pick our spots carefully and use that fee budget carefully if we're going to be paying up for active management, all.

Right, So for me paying up for active management, what's an active manager going to tell me about valuation?

Right, So for me paying up for active management, what's an active manager going to tell me about valuation?

Here?

Here?

It feels like the stocks really all those October loaves have moved so dramatically.

It feels like the stocks really all those October loaves have moved so dramatically.

Yet, so I think about the earnings over that period of time. I let's see a commenser increase in earnings.

Yet, so I think about the earnings over that period of time. I let's see a commenser increase in earnings.

No, it has been all valuation expansion.

No, it has been all valuation expansion.

I guess the good thing about earnings is that they're not being cut, so flat is the new up. But even if we look out over the two year forward, and this is important because when you look two year forwarde, you're effectively encapsulating all the hopes and dreams of earnings growth over the next two years.

I guess the good thing about earnings is that they're not being cut, so flat is the new up. But even if we look out over the two year forward, and this is important because when you look two year forwarde, you're effectively encapsulating all the hopes and dreams of earnings growth over the next two years.

There we're trading at eighteen times.

There we're trading at eighteen times.

That's the highest level that we've been at since twenty twenty one, obviously a very different monetary policy environment. So valuations are stretched, which is why in our active funds we are looking for names.

That's the highest level that we've been at since twenty twenty one, obviously a very different monetary policy environment. So valuations are stretched, which is why in our active funds we are looking for names.

That traded a discount to the market.

That traded a discount to the market.

We're trading at about a twenty percent discount to our underlying indices, and we think the purpose that that serves is that when the market eventually turns, and we know at some point it will, there's simply as air to come out of those names because they haven't seen the kind of HEADI valuations.

We're trading at about a twenty percent discount to our underlying indices, and we think the purpose that that serves is that when the market eventually turns, and we know at some point it will, there's simply as air to come out of those names because they haven't seen the kind of HEADI valuations.

I'm fascinated by how quickly we've come. I'm looking at close SPX yesterday fifty one fifty seven. How do you frame out in your weekend note a reset to fifty two hundred and fifty three hundred a yard anny fifty four hundred and up, up and away to six thousand. How do you sit down with a quill in your hand and write the note?

I'm fascinated by how quickly we've come. I'm looking at close SPX yesterday fifty one fifty seven. How do you frame out in your weekend note a reset to fifty two hundred and fifty three hundred a yard anny fifty four hundred and up, up and away to six thousand. How do you sit down with a quill in your hand and write the note?

Yeah, Look, I think that when we all cast aside the expectation that you could see any downside and that there is no fear in the market, we always say that the only thing to fear is greed itself, which is this idea that eventually crowded positioning, eventually stretched valuations become a bigger issue for the market. The problem with the though, is that complacency needs some kind of catalyst, meaning that you can have a complacent market that persists like ninety eight through two thousand. You need a catalyst for that unwind to happen. So let's say growth estimates start to come in. That's where your crowded positioning, your stretch valuations, and you're chasing of all the strategies saying, oh, let's ratchet up the numbers in our targets.

Yeah, Look, I think that when we all cast aside the expectation that you could see any downside and that there is no fear in the market, we always say that the only thing to fear is greed itself, which is this idea that eventually crowded positioning, eventually stretched valuations become a bigger issue for the market. The problem with the though, is that complacency needs some kind of catalyst, meaning that you can have a complacent market that persists like ninety eight through two thousand. You need a catalyst for that unwind to happen. So let's say growth estimates start to come in. That's where your crowded positioning, your stretch valuations, and you're chasing of all the strategies saying, oh, let's ratchet up the numbers in our targets.

That's when that becomes an issue.

That's when that becomes an issue.

And it's interring time. You probably saw this in your inbox as well. But Torstin Slock from Apollo is out with a note this morning saying the strong uptrend and inflation expectations is forcing the Fed to be more hawk more hawkish. That could be a headwind for a off job saying, yeah, we'll see that off the job side.

And it's interring time. You probably saw this in your inbox as well. But Torstin Slock from Apollo is out with a note this morning saying the strong uptrend and inflation expectations is forcing the Fed to be more hawk more hawkish. That could be a headwind for a off job saying, yeah, we'll see that off the job side.

I got them. I can't remember where you are and it's not your remit, but to me, there's a massive ambiguity about eight thirty this morning. Nobody basically, you know, as a sophisticate, i'd say.

I got them. I can't remember where you are and it's not your remit, but to me, there's a massive ambiguity about eight thirty this morning. Nobody basically, you know, as a sophisticate, i'd say.

Nobody has a clue, right, Nobody has a clue, and then how do you interpret it right? And there's been a lot of reasons to say, hey, let's ignore some of these numbers.

Nobody has a clue, right, Nobody has a clue, and then how do you interpret it right? And there's been a lot of reasons to say, hey, let's ignore some of these numbers.

I think the one thing to watch is that economic.

I think the one thing to watch is that economic.

Surprises have rolled over over the last few weeks, which is the reason.

Surprises have rolled over over the last few weeks, which is the reason.

Why yields have been moving a little bit lower.

Why yields have been moving a little bit lower.

But if they've not rolled over enough to see GDP estimates get pat You've gone from one point two percent expectations to two point one percent for twenty twenty four this year already, and I think that's been another key reasons by behind the lift of.

But if they've not rolled over enough to see GDP estimates get pat You've gone from one point two percent expectations to two point one percent for twenty twenty four this year already, and I think that's been another key reasons by behind the lift of.

We I said, Okay, if we leave you without asking you about Duke and UNC, please don't. Okay, good Cavin Dawson, thank you so much for Duke and UNC Free with KEM. Dawson of New Edge Wealth Management. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

We I said, Okay, if we leave you without asking you about Duke and UNC, please don't. Okay, good Cavin Dawson, thank you so much for Duke and UNC Free with KEM. Dawson of New Edge Wealth Management. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.