Market Surprises in 2025 and US National Security Issues

Published Jan 7, 2025, 3:32 PM

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJanuary 7th, 2025
Featuring:

  • Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, on his top surprises for 2025 and this month's Fed meeting
  • John Bolton, former UN ambassador and US National Security Advisor and now the founder of the Foundation for American Security and Freedom, discusses national security concerns in the US and the second Trump administration, as well as his recent WSJ column on Kash Patel
  • John Kay, British economist and Fellow at St. John's Oxford, discusses his new book "The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century"
  • Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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He writes an exceptionally intelligent note at Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornback joins us Right.

Now, Man, I got a problem.

Everybody from Stolfus over to OpCo down to the gloom at the lower end is optimistic this year.

Is your Hornback radar up?

Hey, Tom, thanks for having me on the show. Well, my radar is always off. It's just a matter of whether whether it's the end of the year or whether it's the beginning of the year. But the radar is up, and I do think that there are going to be some interesting opportunities twenty twenty five.

All right, let's go there, matt Global head of Macro Strategy. That means you can go anywhere, anytime and look at any asset. What's your twenty twenty five lead right here?

Well, I think one of the expectations investors are bringing into this year is that is that you know it's all it's all good and and and and there's nothing bad. And that may be the case by the time we get to the end of twenty twenty five. Nothing bad may it may have happened. But you know, when we talk about things like a recession, obviously nobody talks about recession anymore because it hasn't happened. But I'm actually less focused on the probability of a recession. What what I am worried about is that we may have more recession scares. You know, if you think about the past eighteen months, we've had one recession scare every six months. Every six months, the bond market prices in a very aggressive reduction in the Fed's policy rate. Now that aggressive reduction doesn't come to pass, the economy ends up hanging in there just fine. But for markets, which is what I focus on, you know, we have to be worried about being worried and think about where we end up at the end of that.

Okay, we've got a frame out here. Paul Hornback is like was running you know, he's with Robbie Feldman running Japan. Years ago at Morgan Stanley. He was doing Japan, doing the end doing trade he probably flowing in Japan at the same time as a CMT. He's like a market technician. Oh boy, Matt, we're going to walk right now. I got to impress Tim Kraig. He just walked in the studio here on a semi log NDX. I have support on my climate exponential moving averages. Are you ready a thirty five percent drop from here? How extended is the NDX.

Oh, I think it's It seems pretty extended for sure. One of the things that's also very extended related to Japan is dollar yen. You know, dollar yen in the high one fifties is a understandable why it's there. The rate differentials are still wide. People expect the US to remain exceptional, but I was just in Japan over the holidays, and it is exceptionally affordable. Given where the currency is, it just doesn't make much fundamental sense for the currency to be so weak. And so I would say one thing that I would be looking for quite a decline in twenty twenty five is the dollar yen exchange rate. I think that can very easily go below one forty by the time we get to the end of twenty twenty five.

That's a big figure move.

That is a big figure move, and we haven't seen that got the one to fifty seven spot seventy. Hey, Matt, the good friends at Morgan Stanley are are you guys seeing fun flows coming into the US, say from European investments, from Greenland and other parts in Europe.

Well, I would say there's a lot of flows coming into Goldland, not necessarily Greenland, but but but certainly you know that the dollar does benefit when investors are looking to allocate into either a safety like gold or West treasuries, the dollar is going to benefit. So in that sense, Greenland and Goldland are are highly correlated at this moment. When you see US interest rates going up, you also see the US dollar appreciating. Uh, there's more real return offered in the US. And and even if they don't really hear that much about real return, you can just go buy gold.

One final question, I want to swing it to Japan, but I'm gonna stand US dollar. Matt Hornbach to me, it's a non linear move on d X y it won one nine. Are we getting up to where there's a kink where there's a movement off dollar index or can it be a smooth ride to higher and strong dollar.

Well, no, I think if you look at the dollar over the past couple of years, it has been anything but smooth there. You know, the dollar has largely been range bound, and that's a large part because interest rates have been largely range bound since the Fed stopped their hiking cycle back in July of twenty twenty three. So it's it's been a range bound market. It's definitely not been smooth. Twenty five is not expected to be a smooth year for the dollar. But but that's where a surprise could could could come to the foe is the dollar could actually could could move lower in a more smooth fashion because ultimately we think the Fed, the Fed is going to continue to lower rates and buy more than what you see priced into the market today.

Okay, Matt, thank you.

Matt hornback with a brief here to get us started in twenty twenty five. He is with Morgan Stanley.

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You grow up the son of a fireman. You've got that irascible kind of thing. John Bolton from the very beginning has been someone of opinion, and he's been someone who said it as clear as he can. People that are for John Bolton, his critics as well see a distinguished career in public service, and he has been very visible in the last number of weeks on the formation of the second Trump administration. Cabina, John, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg today.

I'm just going to cut to the chase.

Sometimes you write an essay and then you wrote in the Wall Street Journal an essay on mister Patel, who is being considered to run the FBI, and line by line you went through it.

Why did you.

Put that much energy into that essay on mister Patel are potential leader of the FBI.

Well being Director of the FBI is one of the most important jobs in government, and it's been held by some distinguished people and by some people who are not so distinguished. But the power in that job is just enormous, and I wanted to show why, in my view, Patel wasn't qualified, not in terms of his competence or his experience, or his character. I just thought it was important for senators to have that in mind.

The senators are the key. I can state, folks.

My book of the year a number of years ago, ready, twelve years ago, eleven years ago, Garrett Graf The Threat Max Matrix, The FBI at War. It is a spectacular five hundred pages on the complexity of the FBI. John Boltons, You believe that the president elect doesn't understand the day to day grind of what the FBI does.

Yeah, I think Trump has very little understanding how most of the government operates. He never took the time to learn it. He didn't know much before he became president, and he didn't learn very much when he was president. The FBI has roughly, I don't know, thirty eight forty thousand employees, most of whom spend their time working on investigating real crimes or real threats to the United States from overseas. And the idea that you're going to unleash somebody whose main job, in Trump's view is hunting down Trump's enemies really demeans the incredibly important work of the overwhelming majority of people in the department. I'm not saying the FBI is free of problems, it certainly is not. But if you want to have somebody come in and fix it, correct the problems, reform it, straighten it up, pick somebody like William Webster, who, when Ronald Reagan appointed him, was a distinguished federal judge and has since written he doesn't think either Cash Betel or Tulsey Gabbert or fit for the jobs they've held. Pick somebody who's got a background of integrity and judgment, who's gonna resolve the problems you're worried about and not make the worse.

John for some of the candidates are point ease that you have raised some flags on it. Do you believe the Senate will in fact challenge them going forward in the confirmation process.

Well, I think there's a real chance of it. You know, the the idea that the president nominates somebody and that choice is automatically accepted by the Senate doesn't is born out by history. I think the president's entitled the real deference in his picks, particularly in terms of what the pointees think about policies. That's what the president was elected to do. But the function of the Senate, the Federalist papers make this very clear, is to make sure that people who lack character and competence don't get through. Now we're all waiting after the first of the year for the FBI full field background investigations to come in. That's going to be interesting to read for the senators on the key committees. And then they're going to be confirmation hearings where if senators Republican and Democratic are doing their jobs, they'll ask the nominee some hard questions. This is still a long way from being over.

John, From a national security perspective, what do you think the to do list should be for this incoming administration? Maybe for the first one hundred days, if not longer.

Well, I think it's a long list. I think the world is very threatening to American interest in a variety of places. Certainly the Middle East is on fire, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, the Chinese threat to Taiwan and the South China Sea remain, and I think there needs to be a real focus on going after those countries that have become adversaries of ours and putting in place both the policies we need to protect there, but also getting resources. Maybe the highest priority the president has is getting a better defense budget, a substantially larger defense budget. Not to say that there aren't savings that can be had at defense, There certainly can be. But we face threats that are rising around the world, and we've had, over a sustained period of time inadequate resources to do the job. Our military is way overstretched and we are vulnerable.

It ways to go here, joining us folks as John Bolton, of course you know him from as many years of service to America. Always controversial, always interesting, and opinionated as well. In nineteen sixty four at the McDonough's school, Owings Mills, Maryland, he ran the students for Goldwater campaign. You know, did John to go back to your first public service as a summer intern from the Vice President from Maryland, Mister Agnew, you've seen some White House movement away from the uproar of the first Trump administration. You were articulate about the generals, the admirals. It's surrounded President Trump in his first term. The military has now seen the Trump process. Can he get the same quality military advice now that he got in January six years or eight years ago.

Well, I think it's open to question. I think part of the Trump effect is to try and intimidate people to prevent them from speaking out. I hope that's not the case. The civilian relationship is critical for our national security, and civilian leadership obviously is dominant, but it depends on getting straightforward, honest military advice, and if the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the other Joint Chiefs, the bat and commanders continue to provide that. Obviously it's up for the President to make the final decision, but they need to tell him what the facts are, whether he wants to hear him or not.

Do you think that what is your confidence level that that will occur this second time around, because there are some concerns out there that in this second Trump administration he'll be more authoritative, he'll have more confidence in his moves, maybe at the expensive advice from others.

Well, I think it's very likely that will happen, but you can't tell until the rubber meets the road. We need to know who the Secretary of Defense is going to be that's not resolved yet either, and know a lot more about what the other top civilian officials that defense are going to look like. But I think there are going to be crises that are going to require some pretty tough politico military decisions very early in Trump's term. We don't get to call the shots on when things in the wider world happen. It could happen on day one.

In Besser Bolden. One final question.

This is for Nick Wadhams in Washington, and it's on the machinery here. I see Iran pulling out of Syria. It's unfair to you because I guess you don't have all the present intelligence. But is it legitimate that Iran is retrenching from the greater Middle East?

Look, Iran is in deep trouble. It's been dealt punishing blows by Israel against Hamas and Hezbela, two terrorist proxies that were major elements of Iranian patower. The fall of the Aside regime in Syria, it's a third critical blow. I think the Iotolas are on the back foot now, and this is a point to press them hard. It may well be the regime itself is shaking. At the same time, we've got to worry about making sure that the new government in Syria doesn't establish a terrorist state, a kind of Afghanistan on the Mediterranean. Something we need to pay a lot of attention to We've got a lot at stake.

There, John Bolton, thank you so much for joining us today. We look forward to speaking to you again, the former Ambassador John Bolton.

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We are thrilled to start the year with one of the great academics, of course, with the University of Oxford and always forever associated with the Financial Times.

John K joins us.

The new book is The Corporation in the twenty first Century. John K, thank you so much for joining us. My great theme here is the distrust in America of corporations, and to me, it's the monopsony of it all, the combination the inevitable transactions that lead to corporate power. Where are we on the cycle of capitalism in terms of the ever greater power of our corporations.

I think we're not going to go play, but I wouldn't put as much emphasis as you do on the greater power of corporations, the greater power of the corporate sector. Yes, but the greater power of corporations. People exaggerate over people exaggerate the permanence of dominance of industries. It's quite amusing to watch at the moment the death rows in effect of traditional US Steel, which was when it was formed a century ago, the larger, by far, the most valuable corporation in the world. You were talking earlier about Nvidia, Everyone's favorite of the moment. It's quite hard for me to see how that dominance can be maintained for long enough to justify the three point seven trillion dollar market cap they've achieved. And of course, the great corporation in the first half of the twentieth century was General Motors, which doesn't even dominate the model the world automobile.

Okay, how do you how do you determine when to get off the bend wagon? How do you determine when to exit? Generous Motors? How do you determine when to exit? Maybe British Telecom? How do you determine when to exit?

In video?

It's almost when there's no one left to be convinced. I have a strong memory of early two thousand and going to that Davis conference of the International Business Elite then and that was at the peak of the dot com boo, and I thought, there is no one left to be convinced that this is a permanent change. And I thought, that's a signal that this is the top. And of course it was within two or three months of that the great dot com.

Do you feel that now? Do you feel that now about AI?

I do feel that about AI. I mean AI is important and will change. And indeed, back into a thousand, I was unduly skeptical about the impact that the Internet would have on business. But the impact it had owned business was not an impact in two thousand and one. In two thousand and two, it was the impact that we're still gradually seeing as online retailer and online information acquisition took over. My life has been changed a lot by the Internet, but it's over twenty years, not over two john.

Generations of managers, executives, board members, investors have been brought up in this concept of the responsibility of corporation is the maximize shareholder value? Is that still the case in your mind?

What's the case in my mind is that the responsibility of executives in a corporation is to build great businesses. The truth is, if we're saying, how do you maximize shareholder value, which is a product of the profit the business will earn over even in a pessimistic view twenty thirty years, on an optimistic view fifty or two hundred years, no one can do that kind of sum. What executives should be doing is building great businesses and then shareholder value will follow from that. That's the story of Boeing, which is a good illustration of the problem. In the second half of the twentieth century, what we saw was Boeing Boeing with Bill Allen, who was CEO for Boeing for a time, said we live to eat, breathe and sleep the world ab aeronautics. That was what we did, and they built a great business with planes that revolutionize the aviation industry and everyone's lives. From two thousand they took a rather different view. Irby Stun famously said, people say this is a great engineering business. It is a great engineering business. But people invest in a company because they went to want to make money. Well, for a time, they did make money, but they craded in effect the reputation of the company for short term monetization. Actually, we see a lot of private equity people doing just that today.

We have to leave it there, John K. But thank you so much for joining us. The book is a corporation in the twenty first century. I can't say enough about it, thought provoking tone, why almost everything.

We are told about business is wrong? John K. And we'll look for that book in the coming weeks.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Take a look at different pages of Lisa Matteo our Lisa, what do you have?

Okay, So we are in day three of New York City's congestion pricing. Okay, so this is how it's going. The New York Post is saying drivers are coming up with, i should say, creative ways to kind of beat the system. They're basically hiding their license plates. So the New York Post they spotted a few of these. They're covering like a single digit and the license plate to make it look like another one. They scratch it out, they paint over it, they put tape over it, they use this translucent glue to make it harder to read. They're doing all these different things, attaching those like fake dealer plates that can be taken off and put back on. And then you have the ones with the flate clippers that has the button inside the car that you press and the stuff so it gives a different number. But they're doing all these different things. We are not promoting this. I just want to say that because there could be a five hundred dollars Fine, yes, if you get to doing this, but it just goes to show you how people, how it's affecting, you know, so many different people. They're going to these extents.

The huge response General Lieber with us yesterday from the MT is a classic answered yep, some tough.

Questions, yep. He was there.

And so we'll see how this plays out. But it seems to kind of be working so far. I haven't seen any major problems.

But next we shall see day three going into day four tomorrow. Okay, so this new study, you know that what they call the Sandwich generation, those who are caring for the young kids as well as the older aging parents at the same time. So the study says that it's starting to affect their mental physical health. It's a UK study because this is from Financial Times, but it really shows similar things that are happening here in the US, typically those between the ages of thirty and forty nine. With some of those listeners who are experiencing this, so it just shows that their mental health is kind of deteriorating faster than others who don't have to kind of jungle both of these different sides of the fact with childcare and aging parent care and those who did it like twenty or more hours a week. But it just shows that more help is needed for some of these folks workplace flexibility. Also, it's a big debate later that's the reason why. Yeah, they're having kids later, So now they're at this age where their parents are aging, but yet they have kids who are like two, three, four, five years old and the parents are living longer.

So yeah, and the parents living.

With younger episode becoming a big big thing. You talked about the Greenland, right, so we got to go there. Donald Trump Junior said to go over there. He made the announcement Journey show last night on the Rumble platform. So he said it's a very long personal day trip. He said he's not meeting with anyone in particular. Sources are telling the Washington Post they had this story that he's going to just shoot some video for his podcast. But Foreign Minister, I'd say, it's an open country. They welcome all visitors. But you know the tension, right, you had Donald Trump who said, you know Greenland, the ownership of control of Greenland is a necessity. Then you had the Prime Minister of fruing back and saying that it's not for sale, it never will be for sale. So a lot of tension there. But he's apparently going to be there today.

The Prime Minister says the island is not for sale and he will never be for sale, not at all.

Yeah, well he can show up and he can have the the I can't grill it ulven de brud mager skika, dijon vestor avosta krim. That's the croc madame ninety five whatever, ninety five euros krona.

It's corona, it's crona.

It's going to get Danish.

You're nail on ith.

My gosh, that's.

The Morgan mad, which I think is breakfast at the Esmeralda Cafe.

No Greenland, it's Paus Gooing. He's on icelandic Cours day trip.

What do you drink with that?

Well, let me look down here at the bottom, at the bottom, there's a long menu.

At the Esmarada they have the Boo okay, the Granlin schlemonbouf nasak. I have no idea what that is.

Lisa Matteo, thank you so much for the newspapers today. Greatly appreciate that, particularly Greenland.

I'm learning formative.

I know it's close by, I don't know it's so close.

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