Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

This is some of my ute folks.

This is some of my ute folks.

Good morning, Samuel Coffin, the fabulous Mary Harris of Uboso built all the foundation there, and whoever originally he hired years ago, this young whipper snapper Drew Madis. And what's cool here is someone like maddest folks now over it meant life. It's like it's like it's like one soda. He went from the Padres to the Yankees.

Good morning, Samuel Coffin, the fabulous Mary Harris of Uboso built all the foundation there, and whoever originally he hired years ago, this young whipper snapper Drew Madis. And what's cool here is someone like maddest folks now over it meant life. It's like it's like it's like one soda. He went from the Padres to the Yankees.

Over with the New York Yankees.

Over with the New York Yankees.

Drew Madis gives me a research report from eight years ago. Drew Madis, why are you pulling out a UBS report from eight years ago my three favorite canaries tweet for us.

Drew Madis gives me a research report from eight years ago. Drew Madis, why are you pulling out a UBS report from eight years ago my three favorite canaries tweet for us.

Well, it's there's still some of the best things to look at in terms of whether the economy is improving or getting worse. And unfortunately, what we're seeing in those in those indicators, which are claims, the ism reports, and core bank loans are all signs that the economy is beginning to weaken, which I think has become more evident in things. But you know, with the idea of kind of the soft landing having taken hold or the no landing having taken hold, this is just something that I think points in the opposite direction and maybe suggests that, you know, weakness is going to be forthcoming.

Well, it's there's still some of the best things to look at in terms of whether the economy is improving or getting worse. And unfortunately, what we're seeing in those in those indicators, which are claims, the ism reports, and core bank loans are all signs that the economy is beginning to weaken, which I think has become more evident in things. But you know, with the idea of kind of the soft landing having taken hold or the no landing having taken hold, this is just something that I think points in the opposite direction and maybe suggests that, you know, weakness is going to be forthcoming.

Well, we finally see it in the job report coming up here early June.

Well, we finally see it in the job report coming up here early June.

I think we're going to see some weekend the jobs report. Our expectation is you're going to see the unemployment rate move higher over time. And you know, once again, you know, we do expect the FED to cut interest rates, but we expect the FED to cut interest rates because we expect the economy is going to be weakening. They're going to be cutting with inflation above their target.

I think we're going to see some weekend the jobs report. Our expectation is you're going to see the unemployment rate move higher over time. And you know, once again, you know, we do expect the FED to cut interest rates, but we expect the FED to cut interest rates because we expect the economy is going to be weakening. They're going to be cutting with inflation above their target.

June seven, Elate Jobs report Paul Sweeney Change in non firm payables now one hundred and eighty thousand.

June seven, Elate Jobs report Paul Sweeney Change in non firm payables now one hundred and eighty thousand.

Okay, survey. So, Drew, do you think the FED here? Do you think the Fed's kind of behind the curve a little bit here in terms of cutting interest rates? Or you know a lot of folks will come in here and talk to Tom and I and say, hey, they should just wait here. How do you think about it?

Okay, survey. So, Drew, do you think the FED here? Do you think the Fed's kind of behind the curve a little bit here in terms of cutting interest rates? Or you know a lot of folks will come in here and talk to Tom and I and say, hey, they should just wait here. How do you think about it?

I mean, I think there's an argument for waiting. But at the same point, you know, the Fen's pretty much always behind the curve. I mean, you know, there's no point in putting, you know, a doghound, you know, against the greyhound and backing the outcome to be any different, right, you know that the FED is the animal that they are, and they're going to be behind the curve. And the question is, you know, how, you know, how aggressive can they be when they don't know where things are going? And I think the answer is that they need to have a little bit more humility, which you know, I think if they had had that in the first place, we probably wouldn't have had the inflation rates that we've had.

I mean, I think there's an argument for waiting. But at the same point, you know, the Fen's pretty much always behind the curve. I mean, you know, there's no point in putting, you know, a doghound, you know, against the greyhound and backing the outcome to be any different, right, you know that the FED is the animal that they are, and they're going to be behind the curve. And the question is, you know, how, you know, how aggressive can they be when they don't know where things are going? And I think the answer is that they need to have a little bit more humility, which you know, I think if they had had that in the first place, we probably wouldn't have had the inflation rates that we've had.

All right, So given that backdrop here again, rates likely coming down at some point earning seem to be pretty solid here. That seems to be pretty constructive background for equities. How do you guys think about that?

All right, So given that backdrop here again, rates likely coming down at some point earning seem to be pretty solid here. That seems to be pretty constructive background for equities. How do you guys think about that?

Yeah, you know the problem is kind of you know, how much risk do you want to take when it seems like we're on the verge of a turn, and where will that turn show up? And will we be will it be as obvious to everyone when it happens. So you know, we've been in kind of a risk off mode for a while now, and I think that that's that surved us well. And I think you know probably where I would still be, although I will say, you know, when you're when you're trying to figure out at the turn where you're going to be, you know there are there are places you can be where you actually as soon as the turn happens, you want to be looking at those places. And so you know, we're trying to be or thinking about things in a more nimble way and see, you know where the greatest missed pricings are in the economy.

Yeah, you know the problem is kind of you know, how much risk do you want to take when it seems like we're on the verge of a turn, and where will that turn show up? And will we be will it be as obvious to everyone when it happens. So you know, we've been in kind of a risk off mode for a while now, and I think that that's that surved us well. And I think you know probably where I would still be, although I will say, you know, when you're when you're trying to figure out at the turn where you're going to be, you know there are there are places you can be where you actually as soon as the turn happens, you want to be looking at those places. And so you know, we're trying to be or thinking about things in a more nimble way and see, you know where the greatest missed pricings are in the economy.

Drew back to Colby College economics of a few years ago. In your sterling career. There's a whole idea of aggregating all the data together versus two, three, or even four Americas. Are you disaggregating now? Are you looking at an America of haves and have nots?

Drew back to Colby College economics of a few years ago. In your sterling career. There's a whole idea of aggregating all the data together versus two, three, or even four Americas. Are you disaggregating now? Are you looking at an America of haves and have nots?

You know, I've always been a fan of keeping the aggregate, and the reason being is because you know, if you if you disaggregate in that way, you're basically saying that one group of people can't do a job another group of people can do. And I think increasingly, uh, you know, we're seeing actually that you know, with new technologies, you know, people can do things that you know, maybe they weren't weren't possible before. The only reason to disaggregate now is is because it seems like, you know, the savings rate among one group of the higher end cohort income cohort is really strong. Uh and and there's some excess money there. Uh And so we need to be if we're going to see weakness, it's going to be there first. Right. We already know there's weakness in certain other areas. But the people who drive the economy or the people who can change their savings rate. So you know, if if people are going in and they're getting either government support or they're spending one hundred percent of what they make, you know, those people don't have the ability to adjust their their spending. They just adjust what they're spending on. The higher income cohorts have the ability to actually, you know, increase savings, decrease savings, which then boost the economy or reduces the economy. The good news for the FED, quite frankly is tenure yields are basically at the optimal point to maximize spending.

You know, I've always been a fan of keeping the aggregate, and the reason being is because you know, if you if you disaggregate in that way, you're basically saying that one group of people can't do a job another group of people can do. And I think increasingly, uh, you know, we're seeing actually that you know, with new technologies, you know, people can do things that you know, maybe they weren't weren't possible before. The only reason to disaggregate now is is because it seems like, you know, the savings rate among one group of the higher end cohort income cohort is really strong. Uh and and there's some excess money there. Uh And so we need to be if we're going to see weakness, it's going to be there first. Right. We already know there's weakness in certain other areas. But the people who drive the economy or the people who can change their savings rate. So you know, if if people are going in and they're getting either government support or they're spending one hundred percent of what they make, you know, those people don't have the ability to adjust their their spending. They just adjust what they're spending on. The higher income cohorts have the ability to actually, you know, increase savings, decrease savings, which then boost the economy or reduces the economy. The good news for the FED, quite frankly is tenure yields are basically at the optimal point to maximize spending.

Interesting, where are they going to be in twelve months? I mean, I mean that's the ultimate calling.

Interesting, where are they going to be in twelve months? I mean, I mean that's the ultimate calling.

So we actually, like ski relatively stable around here. But you know, once again, though, if they go higher, people begin to save because they feel the need to. If they go lower, they actually need to save more because people think about retirement and they think about the yield they are going to get in retirement, and so they adjust to try to basically get to an income stream and retirement. And that's the failure of the zero rate policy is that if you push rates too low, train inhibit spending.

So we actually, like ski relatively stable around here. But you know, once again, though, if they go higher, people begin to save because they feel the need to. If they go lower, they actually need to save more because people think about retirement and they think about the yield they are going to get in retirement, and so they adjust to try to basically get to an income stream and retirement. And that's the failure of the zero rate policy is that if you push rates too low, train inhibit spending.

Doramatis, thank you so much.

Doramatis, thank you so much.

With MetLife, Greg Daco joins right now, e y parthenon.

With MetLife, Greg Daco joins right now, e y parthenon.

Greg.

Greg.

It's a you know, quiescent maybe doesn't capture it. It's sort of an on plan report, but one point three percent real GDP is that on the edge of stagflation.

It's a you know, quiescent maybe doesn't capture it. It's sort of an on plan report, but one point three percent real GDP is that on the edge of stagflation.

Now, I don't think it's on the edge of stagflation because of the composition of this GDP print.

Now, I don't think it's on the edge of stagflation because of the composition of this GDP print.

What we saw was.

What we saw was.

Again a very large trade drag, a drag from higher net imports. That is not necessarily a bad thing. It indicates that there was still demand from a consumption perspective, from a business investment perspective, So I think I would fade the headline GDP print, which is soft at one point three percent, and focus on final demand from private purchasers that is still trending around three percent. It's still a robust economy, but we're seeing a little bit more scrutiny on the part of consumers in this high cost environment.

Again a very large trade drag, a drag from higher net imports. That is not necessarily a bad thing. It indicates that there was still demand from a consumption perspective, from a business investment perspective, So I think I would fade the headline GDP print, which is soft at one point three percent, and focus on final demand from private purchasers that is still trending around three percent. It's still a robust economy, but we're seeing a little bit more scrutiny on the part of consumers in this high cost environment.

Yeah, but this is religion to me, folks.

Yeah, but this is religion to me, folks.

We're talking domestic final sales as a general statement. It's something you flunk any kind one oh one, Greg doctor didn't flunk it. But the answer is you peel out a sports you peel out the noise, maybe appeel out the silliness of inventory dynamics, and you got a run rate in America that Paul Sweeney sees every weekend of like a three percent GDP, right, Greg.

We're talking domestic final sales as a general statement. It's something you flunk any kind one oh one, Greg doctor didn't flunk it. But the answer is you peel out a sports you peel out the noise, maybe appeel out the silliness of inventory dynamics, and you got a run rate in America that Paul Sweeney sees every weekend of like a three percent GDP, right, Greg.

Yeah, you've got about three percent GDP growth when you peel out to all those factors. I would also note that today we got the GDI report that gross domestic income number which rows one point five percent. So even though you have to nuance some of the underlying factors in terms of the headline GDP print, gross domestic income continues to point towards that softening momentum in terms of the economy.

Yeah, you've got about three percent GDP growth when you peel out to all those factors. I would also note that today we got the GDI report that gross domestic income number which rows one point five percent. So even though you have to nuance some of the underlying factors in terms of the headline GDP print, gross domestic income continues to point towards that softening momentum in terms of the economy.

If you look at consumer.

If you look at consumer.

Spending data, also showing consumers exorciving more scrutiny, being more careful as to what they spend on, and you're seeing the lower income consumers, younger generations, consumers that are more indebted that are feeling the pressure at high interest rates and high prices and curbing their outlays in this environment.

Spending data, also showing consumers exorciving more scrutiny, being more careful as to what they spend on, and you're seeing the lower income consumers, younger generations, consumers that are more indebted that are feeling the pressure at high interest rates and high prices and curbing their outlays in this environment.

So that's what I would expect to see as we navigate into the second parl.

So that's what I would expect to see as we navigate into the second parl.

As we do on surveillance, we go to the younger generation. Lisa Matteo, are you curbing your consumption?

As we do on surveillance, we go to the younger generation. Lisa Matteo, are you curbing your consumption?

I'm trying my very best.

I'm trying my very best.

Going down in flames out. Thank you. That's the last time we'll speak to the generation today.

Going down in flames out. Thank you. That's the last time we'll speak to the generation today.

Paul, Hey, Greg talk to us about kind of your view of the consumer here. I'm just looking at some Cohal's numbers that came in weaker than expected. Target was also a little bit weak, but Walmart was okay. So I mean, how are you guys viewing the consumer out there?

Paul, Hey, Greg talk to us about kind of your view of the consumer here. I'm just looking at some Cohal's numbers that came in weaker than expected. Target was also a little bit weak, but Walmart was okay. So I mean, how are you guys viewing the consumer out there?

I think we have to depart a little bit from this view of the consumer. I think there are multiple types of consumers, and we're increasingly seeing a bifurcation in the economy. We're seeing individuals at the lower end of the income spectrum, those as I just mentioned, that have higher debt burdens, that are perhaps maxing out on their credit lines, that have larger debt amounts and perhaps less savings to buffer any type of slowdown in the labor market. Those are the ones that are a little bit more careful, more prudent with how they spend, that is gradually moving up into the income labd And if we do see and I'm not saying this will materialize, but if we do see more pronounced slow down in the labor market, that could pretend to slower income momentum and in turn force even a more pronounced slowdown in consumer spending activity, which by itself would actually be a good thing. On the inflation front, because it would promote those dift inflationary burnts that we've been seeing.

I think we have to depart a little bit from this view of the consumer. I think there are multiple types of consumers, and we're increasingly seeing a bifurcation in the economy. We're seeing individuals at the lower end of the income spectrum, those as I just mentioned, that have higher debt burdens, that are perhaps maxing out on their credit lines, that have larger debt amounts and perhaps less savings to buffer any type of slowdown in the labor market. Those are the ones that are a little bit more careful, more prudent with how they spend, that is gradually moving up into the income labd And if we do see and I'm not saying this will materialize, but if we do see more pronounced slow down in the labor market, that could pretend to slower income momentum and in turn force even a more pronounced slowdown in consumer spending activity, which by itself would actually be a good thing. On the inflation front, because it would promote those dift inflationary burnts that we've been seeing.

All Right, Greg, given that that backdrop, do you think the SPED should be cutting rates now or like a lot of folks say, they should just be sitting on the sidelines and wait, what do you think?

All Right, Greg, given that that backdrop, do you think the SPED should be cutting rates now or like a lot of folks say, they should just be sitting on the sidelines and wait, what do you think?

I think a lot of attention, perhaps too much attention, has been given to this first rate cut. Nothing says that once the FED starts to cut, or the ECB or the Bank of England or the Bank of Canada, they have to cut at every meeting or every other meeting. Nothing is predetermined in this environment. But I do think that if you look at the broader picture and have more of a forward looking perspective, with this view of the economy gradually slowing disinflationary pressures fill in the works, the FED could very well start easing monetary policy.

I think a lot of attention, perhaps too much attention, has been given to this first rate cut. Nothing says that once the FED starts to cut, or the ECB or the Bank of England or the Bank of Canada, they have to cut at every meeting or every other meeting. Nothing is predetermined in this environment. But I do think that if you look at the broader picture and have more of a forward looking perspective, with this view of the economy gradually slowing disinflationary pressures fill in the works, the FED could very well start easing monetary policy.

Now.

Now.

Takes some time to evaluate how the economy is evolving.

Takes some time to evaluate how the economy is evolving.

But be on the right step.

But be on the right step.

In the case the economy slows faster than what has been expected. We've been riding this good wave of robust economic data, painless disinflation. I think we have to be very careful to assume that this will continue forever. We are seeing signs of cost fatigue, high interest rates, more cautious business investment starting to weigh in the economy, and we have to be prepared.

In the case the economy slows faster than what has been expected. We've been riding this good wave of robust economic data, painless disinflation. I think we have to be very careful to assume that this will continue forever. We are seeing signs of cost fatigue, high interest rates, more cautious business investment starting to weigh in the economy, and we have to be prepared.

And now, folks home economics with Gregory doco, Ey, greg this isn't the zeitgeist right now, and some of us are living it.

And now, folks home economics with Gregory doco, Ey, greg this isn't the zeitgeist right now, and some of us are living it.

I'm going to be an amateur here.

I'm going to be an amateur here.

Renter's insurance is in CPI, but homeowner's insurance sort of kind of like is not calculated in CPI. And I go to CPS reporting four or five, six months ago. The basic idea that ninety percent of the homes in New Jersey's Ocean County and nearly sixty percent of the homes in Monmouth County all right risk of higher insurance premiums. We go to our New Jersey premium expert, Paul Sweeney. What premium is homeowners premium right now in the premium state of New Jersey.

Renter's insurance is in CPI, but homeowner's insurance sort of kind of like is not calculated in CPI. And I go to CPS reporting four or five, six months ago. The basic idea that ninety percent of the homes in New Jersey's Ocean County and nearly sixty percent of the homes in Monmouth County all right risk of higher insurance premiums. We go to our New Jersey premium expert, Paul Sweeney. What premium is homeowners premium right now in the premium state of New Jersey.

And I'm a solid five blocks from the beach, so I'm paying my fair share. My former home in California toime, it was in a fire area, so I was covered with regular insurance until about three or four years ago, and they said nope, you're now in the fire area. So I had to go to Lloyd's of London to get insurance, did you yeah? I mean those are the people that ensure ships that go like in the Red Sea.

And I'm a solid five blocks from the beach, so I'm paying my fair share. My former home in California toime, it was in a fire area, so I was covered with regular insurance until about three or four years ago, and they said nope, you're now in the fire area. So I had to go to Lloyd's of London to get insurance, did you yeah? I mean those are the people that ensure ships that go like in the Red Sea.

Did you stop by Gregs and Heaven and the Chase? Craig Doco, this is ridiculous homeowner's insurance. A guy like Michael Barr has been play crushed.

Did you stop by Gregs and Heaven and the Chase? Craig Doco, this is ridiculous homeowner's insurance. A guy like Michael Barr has been play crushed.

Was six deer in the backyard from a homeowner's insurance? Greig Doco?

Was six deer in the backyard from a homeowner's insurance? Greig Doco?

How do we put homeowners insurance that we're all getting killed on into CPI?

How do we put homeowners insurance that we're all getting killed on into CPI?

I think we have to be very careful with insurance in general, both homeowner insurance and car insurance. And wonder whether these are the types of pressures that the FED should be fighting. Should the FED be focused on these components of CPI, inflation of inflation in general as to essentially try to curb inflation and bring inflation back towards that two percent target. There are open questions as to whether the FED wants to squeeze other components to offset the fact that they can't control that.

I think we have to be very careful with insurance in general, both homeowner insurance and car insurance. And wonder whether these are the types of pressures that the FED should be fighting. Should the FED be focused on these components of CPI, inflation of inflation in general as to essentially try to curb inflation and bring inflation back towards that two percent target. There are open questions as to whether the FED wants to squeeze other components to offset the fact that they can't control that.

There's no textbook you or I studied that says the FED can surgically control selected inflation items.

There's no textbook you or I studied that says the FED can surgically control selected inflation items.

Exactly, and you've probably given the blunt tools and the uncertain lags in terms of monetary policy. That's why I'm not necessarily sure that you want to have monetary palsy remain higher for longer, tighter for longer. In this type of environment where a lot a large part of what's driving inflation today is structural by nature. Homeowner insurance prices are not rising because of inflationary dynamics, rather because you have climate change, you have conditions that are shifting. Same on the automotive front, not necessarily sure that the fact can do much about these types of inflation dynamics.

Exactly, and you've probably given the blunt tools and the uncertain lags in terms of monetary policy. That's why I'm not necessarily sure that you want to have monetary palsy remain higher for longer, tighter for longer. In this type of environment where a lot a large part of what's driving inflation today is structural by nature. Homeowner insurance prices are not rising because of inflationary dynamics, rather because you have climate change, you have conditions that are shifting. Same on the automotive front, not necessarily sure that the fact can do much about these types of inflation dynamics.

On the anniversary of the release of Just What I Needed by the Cars from Boston University and Ey Craig Daco, thank you so much, just absolutely brilliant different.

On the anniversary of the release of Just What I Needed by the Cars from Boston University and Ey Craig Daco, thank you so much, just absolutely brilliant different.

This timely interview coming.

This timely interview coming.

Up, we are going to consider the legal issues of Lower Manhattan. David Gerr there, I think June Grosso's is June's scheduled to be with us as well.

Up, we are going to consider the legal issues of Lower Manhattan. David Gerr there, I think June Grosso's is June's scheduled to be with us as well.

Did we talk to her people?

Did we talk to her people?

I think do you think she does the afternoon shift?

I think do you think she does the afternoon shift?

I don't know.

I don't know.

Studio here right now.

Studio here right now.

Ethan Devit joins Chief Global Strategist Manetta Group, with a really really solid understanding of the turn of markets out of the United Kingdom. Thank you so much for joining right now. Can we sustain global nominal GDP? Can we keep this good feeling going?

Ethan Devit joins Chief Global Strategist Manetta Group, with a really really solid understanding of the turn of markets out of the United Kingdom. Thank you so much for joining right now. Can we sustain global nominal GDP? Can we keep this good feeling going?

It's going to be difficult to sustain that. I mean, we clearly have exceeded expectations in terms of where GDP has been, coming down to one point three percent. I'd say that's in the category of nothing to write home about right now. So it's definitely is more muted and perhaps more in line with how the economy should feel after it's just experienced a soft landing. We know that it's quite mixed. That number as a top line number will perhaps distort quite a bit of variability behind the scenes among different sectors. So no, I'd say we're pretty much holding on by the skin of our teeth to a positive number right now.

It's going to be difficult to sustain that. I mean, we clearly have exceeded expectations in terms of where GDP has been, coming down to one point three percent. I'd say that's in the category of nothing to write home about right now. So it's definitely is more muted and perhaps more in line with how the economy should feel after it's just experienced a soft landing. We know that it's quite mixed. That number as a top line number will perhaps distort quite a bit of variability behind the scenes among different sectors. So no, I'd say we're pretty much holding on by the skin of our teeth to a positive number right now.

How do you define stagflation? Do we know how Jamie Diamond defines it?

How do you define stagflation? Do we know how Jamie Diamond defines it?

Paul, I don't think.

Paul, I don't think.

I don't.

I don't.

People throw this thing around, and I mean we're talking here with somebody with some qualifications including Trinity College, Dublin, a school called Oxford. You know, it's just done pretty pretty insient in France. I mean, how do you define stagflation?

People throw this thing around, and I mean we're talking here with somebody with some qualifications including Trinity College, Dublin, a school called Oxford. You know, it's just done pretty pretty insient in France. I mean, how do you define stagflation?

Well, at So's I would like to say, I was born in the era when it was last popular. It's stagnation plus inflation. That's my understanding. It's been forecast for most of my life, but it hasn't actually transpired. And I'd say now we're hardly on either side of it. We're seeing neither stagnation nor are we seeing persistent inflation any longer. So I'd say that term has perhaps lost its purpose just at the moment. We have other problems certainly ahead of us, and that is is how we deal with perhaps not having had this fallout, not having had this recession. You know, how real essentially is this growth you mean, and how sustainable is that? But I'd say inflation for now somewhat in the rear view mirror.

Well, at So's I would like to say, I was born in the era when it was last popular. It's stagnation plus inflation. That's my understanding. It's been forecast for most of my life, but it hasn't actually transpired. And I'd say now we're hardly on either side of it. We're seeing neither stagnation nor are we seeing persistent inflation any longer. So I'd say that term has perhaps lost its purpose just at the moment. We have other problems certainly ahead of us, and that is is how we deal with perhaps not having had this fallout, not having had this recession. You know, how real essentially is this growth you mean, and how sustainable is that? But I'd say inflation for now somewhat in the rear view mirror.

All right, If that's in the rearview mirror. Even as a chief global market strategist, where do you see opportunities on a global scale.

All right, If that's in the rearview mirror. Even as a chief global market strategist, where do you see opportunities on a global scale.

Well, it's interesting.

Well, it's interesting.

We've always been global investors, and that has been a very difficult position to maintain because we have had high conviction outside the US, even at a time when the dollar was strong and there was persistent under performance. So what we are cheered to see is that there has been this broadening of the market strength, and we still see that even though that there is there's been a come back in the last few days. We can see that there has been a broadening beyond tech, a broadening beyond large cap only into mid cap and small cap, and certainly beyond the US. We've seen some decent performance out of Europe, decent performance out of the UK finally after lagging for about fourteen months there, and then of course stellar performance from Japan, and a resurrection of hope and expectation around China post COVID and post some of that overhang. So I'd say we're seeing this kind of commonality now of themes on a global basis. Where do we see opportunity. We see it in the divergence in the fact that the dollar cannot stay long forever. We've seen some weakening there. We start to see divergence among central banks and how they're likely to perform. Who's going to go quickly on as a perform I mean, what they're likely to do in terms of the interest rates. ECB likely to go before either Bank of England or the fed that's leading to some divergence which will manifest in the currencies. So that's where we're seeing it. And then of course you have single stock areas like say the Novo Nordisks of this world that clearly are stellar success stories. And if you do not have global exposure, you do not have the optionality that exposure to that would give you.

We've always been global investors, and that has been a very difficult position to maintain because we have had high conviction outside the US, even at a time when the dollar was strong and there was persistent under performance. So what we are cheered to see is that there has been this broadening of the market strength, and we still see that even though that there is there's been a come back in the last few days. We can see that there has been a broadening beyond tech, a broadening beyond large cap only into mid cap and small cap, and certainly beyond the US. We've seen some decent performance out of Europe, decent performance out of the UK finally after lagging for about fourteen months there, and then of course stellar performance from Japan, and a resurrection of hope and expectation around China post COVID and post some of that overhang. So I'd say we're seeing this kind of commonality now of themes on a global basis. Where do we see opportunity. We see it in the divergence in the fact that the dollar cannot stay long forever. We've seen some weakening there. We start to see divergence among central banks and how they're likely to perform. Who's going to go quickly on as a perform I mean, what they're likely to do in terms of the interest rates. ECB likely to go before either Bank of England or the fed that's leading to some divergence which will manifest in the currencies. So that's where we're seeing it. And then of course you have single stock areas like say the Novo Nordisks of this world that clearly are stellar success stories. And if you do not have global exposure, you do not have the optionality that exposure to that would give you.

But I think if if I were a portfolio manager, even I think I'd be very lazy. I think what I would do is just go by big tech and then stick my head in the send and hope for the best. I mean, and that's kind of worked for me.

But I think if if I were a portfolio manager, even I think I'd be very lazy. I think what I would do is just go by big tech and then stick my head in the send and hope for the best. I mean, and that's kind of worked for me.

I guess we should never underestimate what's sitting in a room and doing nothing, I think, which is always been perhaps the good response in riding out some of this volatility. The problem with that is this is a momentum trait, and chasing momentum has often ended in tears for investors. So we have not been too tactical, try to be too clever around this momentum. We're even seeing signs of that spending is highly selective right now that if we look at CAPEX beyond spending say on cybersecurity and on tech or on AI investments. Ppex is actually coming down in other areas. So that's the story for corporates, that's the story for consumers. We see that in the salesforce numbers, in the American airlines numbers, and we're going we're interesting to see what Costco comes out with today. But I suspect on the food side people are still spending well, but selective spending is the order of the day, So there will be some cracks in the AI.

I guess we should never underestimate what's sitting in a room and doing nothing, I think, which is always been perhaps the good response in riding out some of this volatility. The problem with that is this is a momentum trait, and chasing momentum has often ended in tears for investors. So we have not been too tactical, try to be too clever around this momentum. We're even seeing signs of that spending is highly selective right now that if we look at CAPEX beyond spending say on cybersecurity and on tech or on AI investments. Ppex is actually coming down in other areas. So that's the story for corporates, that's the story for consumers. We see that in the salesforce numbers, in the American airlines numbers, and we're going we're interesting to see what Costco comes out with today. But I suspect on the food side people are still spending well, but selective spending is the order of the day, So there will be some cracks in the AI.

Theisis because quite frankly.

Theisis because quite frankly.

No one really knows where we're going with this in terms of its impact. There's a lot of hype and momentum, so all in there would be a precarious position across.

No one really knows where we're going with this in terms of its impact. There's a lot of hype and momentum, so all in there would be a precarious position across.

A kitchen table and Ethan, I mean in the United Kingdom, you've brought in some Gregs, the cheese.

A kitchen table and Ethan, I mean in the United Kingdom, you've brought in some Gregs, the cheese.

And the onion roll, and you're there with tea not coffee. I'm sorry, brown stuff.

And the onion roll, and you're there with tea not coffee. I'm sorry, brown stuff.

But if you're there across a kitchen table right now and you've missed this equity surge, how do you get into the market into the summer of twenty twenty four?

But if you're there across a kitchen table right now and you've missed this equity surge, how do you get into the market into the summer of twenty twenty four?

Great question, Well, first question, you get in how you always get in, which is gradually and staggering, and I don't mean staggering as if you consume too much of that ale, but you know staggering and the way we all at all a cost averaging, and that that is of course how you do it. You definitely want to have that spread out around the time of a geopolitical event. We have elections in the UK on Independence Day on the fourth of July, There'll be elections here in early November in the US and early November, so clearly we need to be mindful that those events are likely to cause some volatility in markets, and we're already seeing that in the volatility and fixed income that will manifest inequity markets. So you stagger entry. You then make sure that it is broad based across sectors. You don't try to be too tactical, because ultimately we can't predict where different sectors are going to be, but we do know that certainly by the way Passive is performing, that is certainly a broad based exposure is the way to be even devid.

Great question, Well, first question, you get in how you always get in, which is gradually and staggering, and I don't mean staggering as if you consume too much of that ale, but you know staggering and the way we all at all a cost averaging, and that that is of course how you do it. You definitely want to have that spread out around the time of a geopolitical event. We have elections in the UK on Independence Day on the fourth of July, There'll be elections here in early November in the US and early November, so clearly we need to be mindful that those events are likely to cause some volatility in markets, and we're already seeing that in the volatility and fixed income that will manifest inequity markets. So you stagger entry. You then make sure that it is broad based across sectors. You don't try to be too tactical, because ultimately we can't predict where different sectors are going to be, but we do know that certainly by the way Passive is performing, that is certainly a broad based exposure is the way to be even devid.

Thank you so much. Chief Global Strategus Minetta Group. Just love to have her on this morning. You tell you look at the front pages. She's never been in a golden Goose. But boy does she have some.

Thank you so much. Chief Global Strategus Minetta Group. Just love to have her on this morning. You tell you look at the front pages. She's never been in a golden Goose. But boy does she have some.

Newspaper stories to that will everywhere those given word.

Newspaper stories to that will everywhere those given word.

Yeah, all right, We're gonna start with this story.

Yeah, all right, We're gonna start with this story.

It came out yesterday the New York Times, CNBC reporting Nelson Peltz no longer an investor in Disney. You remember the battle to get on Disney's board, right, He controlled three and a half billion dollars in Disney snock, So this is kind of taking that pressure off Disney. So a big part of his chunk was owned by Ike Pearl Mutter. He's a former chairman of Marvel Entertainment. So Sorcerers saying that Pelts has now sold off his.

It came out yesterday the New York Times, CNBC reporting Nelson Peltz no longer an investor in Disney. You remember the battle to get on Disney's board, right, He controlled three and a half billion dollars in Disney snock, So this is kind of taking that pressure off Disney. So a big part of his chunk was owned by Ike Pearl Mutter. He's a former chairman of Marvel Entertainment. So Sorcerers saying that Pelts has now sold off his.

Portion of those shares. But here's the thing.

Portion of those shares. But here's the thing.

I mean, he's not going away empty handed because Disney stocks risn't about fifteen percent in the past year. SORCER's saying he sold his Disney snock at one hundred and twenty dollars a ship.

I mean, he's not going away empty handed because Disney stocks risn't about fifteen percent in the past year. SORCER's saying he sold his Disney snock at one hundred and twenty dollars a ship.

I'll jump in here.

I'll jump in here.

Ten year return on Disney is three point seventy five percent per year yep, for the last ten years. What Pelts got out of this with a profit, right he did?

Ten year return on Disney is three point seventy five percent per year yep, for the last ten years. What Pelts got out of this with a profit, right he did?

It was amazing.

It was amazing.

Did Eiger get out of this with a proct.

Did Eiger get out of this with a proct.

Well still to be seen at you know, Al from Jersey. I'm not sure if he came out with a profit either. But again, this is just a real challenging issue for Disney and for the meat industry in general. Tom. They're trying to figure out how do they make a business out of this.

Well still to be seen at you know, Al from Jersey. I'm not sure if he came out with a profit either. But again, this is just a real challenging issue for Disney and for the meat industry in general. Tom. They're trying to figure out how do they make a business out of this.

Stream I've always said this someday when Lisa helped me here. They all came out with the streaming and I'm about ready to cancel two or three of them, and I'm going mental this weekend.

Stream I've always said this someday when Lisa helped me here. They all came out with the streaming and I'm about ready to cancel two or three of them, and I'm going mental this weekend.

But the bottom line is Disney.

But the bottom line is Disney.

I look at is okay, Star Wars and lots of Cinderella and all the rest for kids.

I look at is okay, Star Wars and lots of Cinderella and all the rest for kids.

What does the new Disney look like?

What does the new Disney look like?

I think the new Disney looks like a theme park company with some media assets. No, but I mean the streaming service streaming services.

I think the new Disney looks like a theme park company with some media assets. No, but I mean the streaming service streaming services.

Look at the chick lits on your TV.

Look at the chick lits on your TV.

Well, yeah, I know Hulu, I know, I know Netflix.

Well, yeah, I know Hulu, I know, I know Netflix.

What's Disney?

What's Disney?

Well, the Mandalorian is their big push too, I mean yeah, Star Wars.

Well, the Mandalorian is their big push too, I mean yeah, Star Wars.

Yeah, it's all the franchisees, Like, yeah, they're gonna try to milk their franchises as they should because they have their best franchises in Hollywood. But even that they've seen some pushback on some of their franchises that maybe they've overdone it, oversaturated it, so they pushed some of those movie releases back. But Nelson Peltz, he made a couple shekels on that investment.

Yeah, it's all the franchisees, Like, yeah, they're gonna try to milk their franchises as they should because they have their best franchises in Hollywood. But even that they've seen some pushback on some of their franchises that maybe they've overdone it, oversaturated it, so they pushed some of those movie releases back. But Nelson Peltz, he made a couple shekels on that investment.

Yeah for next Okay, you know that big ginormous residential tower four thirty two Park.

Yeah for next Okay, you know that big ginormous residential tower four thirty two Park.

Okay, it's tall, it's thin.

Okay, it's tall, it's thin.

Central Park, if you're lying in Central Park, shortly.

Central Park, if you're lying in Central Park, shortly.

The tallest residential building in the Western Hemisphere.

The tallest residential building in the Western Hemisphere.

Okay, it had that. It had people like Jennifer Lopez lived there. Okay, so it had his big reputation. But now apparently it's going through some problems.

Okay, it had that. It had people like Jennifer Lopez lived there. Okay, so it had his big reputation. But now apparently it's going through some problems.

It had a twenty twenty one lawsuit that Condominimum Board that says there were noise issues, leaks, malfunctioning elevators. So the problem is that a lot of the people who owned are now trying to get out of it, and they're lowering their prices. So since the lawsuit, there's been a number of units for sale, homeowners unloading properties for a loss, even would be sellers cutting prices.

It had a twenty twenty one lawsuit that Condominimum Board that says there were noise issues, leaks, malfunctioning elevators. So the problem is that a lot of the people who owned are now trying to get out of it, and they're lowering their prices. So since the lawsuit, there's been a number of units for sale, homeowners unloading properties for a loss, even would be sellers cutting prices.

I'm looking for a unit there for Tom Keane. The Building's pen House. Building's Penhouse was recently a discount to one hundred and five million, down from the original asker price one hundred and sixty nine million. So I think we're getting down into the TK level here to get the Penhouse, which does have phenomenal use.

I'm looking for a unit there for Tom Keane. The Building's pen House. Building's Penhouse was recently a discount to one hundred and five million, down from the original asker price one hundred and sixty nine million. So I think we're getting down into the TK level here to get the Penhouse, which does have phenomenal use.

That's great about it is if you're there and I can take the Aston Martin across the street to the Eston Martin dealer show.

That's great about it is if you're there and I can take the Aston Martin across the street to the Eston Martin dealer show.

Yeah, there you go. Convenience.

Yeah, there you go. Convenience.

But this building for those of you across the nation, this building is on Fancy Park Avenue, right down the street from James Diamond's new tower, farther up from Griffin's Tower to be built over the next six years. The other towers Paul are sort of in the middle of nowhere.

But this building for those of you across the nation, this building is on Fancy Park Avenue, right down the street from James Diamond's new tower, farther up from Griffin's Tower to be built over the next six years. The other towers Paul are sort of in the middle of nowhere.

In fifty seven. Yeah, I don't get it. And again, if you're sitting if you're literally lying down in the in the in the park Central Park catching some rays on a summer day, the sun will be blocked by some of these buildings. It's just ridiculous.

In fifty seven. Yeah, I don't get it. And again, if you're sitting if you're literally lying down in the in the in the park Central Park catching some rays on a summer day, the sun will be blocked by some of these buildings. It's just ridiculous.

I mean, it's just the whole landscape of the sky line.

I mean, it's just the whole landscape of the sky line.

Don't get me gone. Yeah, I'll get next.

Don't get me gone. Yeah, I'll get next.

Let's move on, all right.

Let's move on, all right.

So how about this apple looking to kind of set aside its rivalry with Android because they want to put Apple TV Plus possibly onto androids.

So how about this apple looking to kind of set aside its rivalry with Android because they want to put Apple TV Plus possibly onto androids.

So this is a big thing. Bloomberg is saying.

So this is a big thing. Bloomberg is saying.

There was a job posting that shows they were looking for the senior engineer to help build a television and sports app for Android, and the reason is because it competes with the iOS platform. So this is a big thing for Apple.

There was a job posting that shows they were looking for the senior engineer to help build a television and sports app for Android, and the reason is because it competes with the iOS platform. So this is a big thing for Apple.

To go onto an Android. So that's what they're talking about.

To go onto an Android. So that's what they're talking about.

But they never Apple tv plus never talks about how many subscribers they have or how much revenue. But Android could really give it that boost because Android actually has more users globally Apple.

But they never Apple tv plus never talks about how many subscribers they have or how much revenue. But Android could really give it that boost because Android actually has more users globally Apple.

In the Sweeney household, we have one of our offspring is Android and the rest of the staple. Yeah, just one. And so he's shunned. He's not in any of the groups.

In the Sweeney household, we have one of our offspring is Android and the rest of the staple. Yeah, just one. And so he's shunned. He's not in any of the groups.

Everybody else's.

Everybody else's.

Yeah, he's at Lockheed. He's Rocket scientists, and he says it's superior to iOS before we.

Yeah, he's at Lockheed. He's Rocket scientists, and he says it's superior to iOS before we.

Just look, I got the same what's interesting about this? Sleep, So I'm so glad you put this in here quickly, Paul. This thing coming up in June with Apple. Yeah, and I think the bombshell is going to be with Google.

Just look, I got the same what's interesting about this? Sleep, So I'm so glad you put this in here quickly, Paul. This thing coming up in June with Apple. Yeah, and I think the bombshell is going to be with Google.

That's I couldn't Yeah, yeah, so my amateur prediction. And as Tom's referencing, they have a developer conference June tent for Apple and a lot of folks are saying this is going to be the AI event for Apple.

That's I couldn't Yeah, yeah, so my amateur prediction. And as Tom's referencing, they have a developer conference June tent for Apple and a lot of folks are saying this is going to be the AI event for Apple.

One more quickly.

One more quickly.

Next, yes, sure, screen time before bed? When do you turn off your screens?

Next, yes, sure, screen time before bed? When do you turn off your screens?

Is it like an hour?

Is it like an hour?

Two?

Two?

No phone's in the bedroom?

No phone's in the bedroom?

No phones in the bedroom? Good for you, okay, because there was that rule. No, maybe two hours before bed to turn it off because it can. The problem is that it suppresses melatonin, so it doesn't let you fall asleep as easily. But now they're study saying that that might not be true, so some people could be more sensitive to the blue light than others. They're saying it varies depending on person to person, so you don't have to follow that role if you want. There are some strategies.

No phones in the bedroom? Good for you, okay, because there was that rule. No, maybe two hours before bed to turn it off because it can. The problem is that it suppresses melatonin, so it doesn't let you fall asleep as easily. But now they're study saying that that might not be true, so some people could be more sensitive to the blue light than others. They're saying it varies depending on person to person, so you don't have to follow that role if you want. There are some strategies.

Here's what you can do.

Here's what you can do.

You can set an alarm on your phone so that it goes off when you have to go to bed. You turn off your notification please time. I know my husband's unifications wake me up in the middle of the night.

You can set an alarm on your phone so that it goes off when you have to go to bed. You turn off your notification please time. I know my husband's unifications wake me up in the middle of the night.

I hate it. It's annoying.

I hate it. It's annoying.

Please, And you can keep a sleep journal, Tom a sleep sleep journal. Yes, you can say what works and what doesn't work for you so you can get some better sleep trash.

Please, And you can keep a sleep journal, Tom a sleep sleep journal. Yes, you can say what works and what doesn't work for you so you can get some better sleep trash.

You can't even say it with a straight because a sleep journal.

You can't even say it with a straight because a sleep journal.

Thank you so much.

Thank you so much.

This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.