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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyAugust 13th, 2024
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Long ago and far away, folks, a guy named Farrell was at Merrill Lynch with Rosenberg, and between the two of them it was two required reads every week. And with Rosenberg on page three or four, it was a vertical column slicing in inflation like no one down the street. Absolutely, no one did it or does it like David Rosenberg. David, what is the character the nature of our disinflation?
Well, inflation like any other price, and of course inflation is a changing price. Is not the level always going to be dictated by the shape of the demand of supply curves in the economy and how those curves are moving. So you know, what we're seeing happening, and especially in the labor market, is those demand of supply curves are moving in a decisive disinflationary pattern. And so that's what I'm looking at right now, just how these demand supply curves are shifting and as I said, shifting way towards lower wage inflation and price inflation in general.
Some people don't know where those curves are. Some people look at them at Little Marshall and Cross. What I'm going to suggest you is that's not true. But there are times where accelerative tendencies or convexity can move. Is supply moves or demand moves. Are we at a point where we get jump conditions in disinflation to a much lower set.
Well, the best way I can answer that is almost a paraphrase what j Powell said at the podium after the lst FMC meeting. You know where he said that recession is not the FEDS base case scenario. He's not concerned about a collapsing economy. But he talked incessantly about the widening slack that we're seeing in the labor market. And that's ultimately going to be one of the key elements behind any inflation or disinflation. So it's very interesting that while he remained a bit of a cheerleader for the economy, he's noting that they're getting more comfortable, getting more confident over the disinflation. But the emphasis on slack emerging the labor market me was very key, and I think that what he's really signaling here is that we are saying, and whether it's because the productivity numbers have consistently come in other than expected and the immigration boom that supported population growth and the labor force participation rate, that we've had a shift in the supply curve even as demand is hung in. Now demand growth isn't what it was, say twelve twenty four to thirty six months ago, with all the stimulus, but demand growth is holding in. But we have a situation where perhaps demand growth is running at say two and a half percent on a trend, but what if that's bumping against a supply curve that's closer to four percent. So all of a sudden, what we view as real GDP growth, which is the proxy for agrid demand, what looks like two to two and a half percent today benchmarked against what the supply curve is doing in the economy is almost what zero was, say ten to one of your thirty years ago. So that's really what's important here, is every single widening gap between the growth in every command benchmarked against acurate supply. Right, that's on without a recession, you've had cornflation for all to talk about sticky, sticky, sticky cornflations come down by one hundred and fifty basis points.
You know, David and Paul Sweeney were at seven o eight am at Wall Street time, and where our heads are breaking over price theory with David Rosenberg. But the answer is all of the Foreign Affairs article in China. There's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of Maybe that's what's bringing prices down.
A lot of supply out there. David, what did the what's the labor market telling us about this economy here? I mean the market really got freaked out a week ago Friday about some of those labor data.
Well, I don't think that you know, the stock market as a stem alone number should have freaked out. I was not surprised by the reaction, and the treasury market was not surprised at ten year yields on that day closed just below four percent, and we were down about at least ten basis points that day. I mean, that didn't surprise me because we saw a headline number below expected downward revisions. The unemployment rate rose. Now you can debate us whether or not that's a weather report or not. The BLS said that the hurricane had just a marginal impact, but you had widening slack in the labor market and wage growth continued to recede. So this was just a schmorgas board, a very benevolent events as far as the treasure market was concerned. Was it a recessionary statistic, although I'm still in the recession camp. It's been a long wait. No, But it was certainly a disinflationary report, and that's what the bond market had to see. And you see, the thing is that the Non Farm and Household Survey came out exactly two days after the foi C meeting. Now, I would posit that if J. Powell didn't concentrate so much of his attention on the other part of the dual mandate, which is a labor market, where he talked about that incessantly from the podium. Then maybe the market reaction wouldn't have been so acute, especially in the bond market. But he told you where his attention is shifting, and so that's what made the employment number so much more important. But it really reinforced his message that even without the economy collapsing, we are seeing widening disinflationary slack converged in the labor market. And that's all you really have.
To now, David folded into the stock market, which you do so well, and I want you to fold in. The idea of nominal GDP comes in because inflation comes in in a Rosenberg flash fashion. Maybe real GDP's QUI scenter solid or comes in and all of a sudden, corporations are struggling for revenue growth. Alohol Depot is that our twenty twenty.
Five Well, it probably is, because what was important about home Depot wasn't what they said about their current sale, the very weak guidance that they provided that was really I think the source of disappointment today. And it's following a string of companies, primarily in the consumer space, which are really struggling, and all the eyes of course are on technology and the general of AI wave and technology call it over thirty percent of the stock market, a much lower share of the economy. And what's important, I think from I guess a macro perspective taking the queue from the stock market, is that the only sector among the eleven s and P five hundred sectors this year that's in the red is consumer discretionary, which may be less than ten percent of the stock market capitalization. It doesn't get that much attention because everybody is just focused on the sex that's provided by the technology sector. But discretionary consumer spending is forty percent of GDP. And so what the stock market is telling you for all the naysayers out there a both because the recession hasn't come, therefore it's never going to come. But you have a disconnect between the components of the stock market, their shares and the shares that actually are.
In the economy.
So the consumer discretionary space being the only sector down but the dominant force in domestic demand I think is a red flag as far as the economic goal look is concerned.
So, David, how do you view the US consumer I mean, I guess it's hard to even say there is a common consumer out there. There seems to be many strata out there. How would you characterize consumer demand out there?
Well, you know, everybody's talking about the K shaped economy, but you are even starting to see some of the strains emerge in the higher end. And the higher end has been held up because they're not as dead heavy as low and middle income households. They're not as dead heavy, therefore not as vulnerable to the interst rate shot of the past couple of years. And of course they've benefited from the wealth effect from what the stock market has given them, and now the stock market seems to be topping out. But in the end, recessions are caused by slight changes at the margin, and you're seeing those strains really emerge amongst low income households, which spend one hundred percent of their income. And I think, actually, you know, the biggest bombshell was what Brian moynihan said on Facination on Sunday, Because you know, these bank CEOs, let's face it, they're normally a pretty cheery bunch, but he's talking about their sample size, Oh, of only sixty million consumer accounts. Hillis Ergo the other consumer bank, and he didn't just say that consumer spending is slowing. He said, it's slowing sharply. And you have all these other economists and I know they show up on your show, is talking about oh well, traffic at airports and traffic at restaurants and traffic at theme parks. Everything's fine. And that was laid to rest by Brian Monahan, who said, oh, yes, for sure, traffic is strong. But here's the problem is that spending spending per person.
Yeah, I'll take that down.
Also, stop by the way, traffic doesn't go into GD right.
But to put a bow on this, and I want to get your market conviction here of what you're doing if you're not all in cash. But to mister Moinianne's point, revenue is price dynamics in unit dynamics, and so in the airline business they're popping unit dynamics nicely. But the prediction here has to be a Rosenberg like price drifts away. There's no pricing power.
Is there no pricing power? And you know, there's obviously a bit of a disconnect. I've got to say I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but the government data have been so far off. The more anecdotal survey data, and of course what corporate executives have been saying, and what about the Beige Book? And I was actually hardened by the fact that at least J Pebbell gave some lip service to the base Book, which is the most comprehensive, albeit non data assessment of the US economy that comes with every six weeks.
And you're a hundred.
Percent right, Tom, Every single basebook this year, even during that temporary inflation blift caused by insurance costs beginning of the year that caused the FED to sort of step back, every single bag book is talking about an ongoing loss.
Of corporate pricing power. And of course you're not about pricing power.
It's not about levels, and it's the bomb. Market does not respond to levels, the responds to change. And what's happening is that you see when the corporate sector, we're raising prices was nobody's business in twenty two, nobody cared. Everybody was willing to accept the price increases in the consumer sector because you were flush, right with that two tillion dollars the stimulus checks. They see all of a sudden, the stimulus checks are gone. The same is rate It barely more than three percent is a fraction of the pre COVID range of seven to eight percent, and all of a sudden, without the cash cushion, people see, look at these price levels.
Now.
The thing is that, and this is what I'm looking at, corporate profit margins are still in the top half of the historical range. So companies actually have the capacity to reduce their prices. I don't think we're going back to where you're worth two or three, but they have capacity to lower their prices in response to what was obviously a consumer revolt right now against these prices. And that, by the way, is when you build it to a deflace eight deflationary environment times steadfastly bullish all the treasury.
Market, thank you, and we'll get the yield calls the next time around. A lot of people will all of a sudden looking.
For Rosenberg like yields. David Rosenberg Rosenberg.
Research can't say enough about his work. Seemshaw, who joins us right now. Seemashaw is with principal Grow were thrilled that she could join us this morning with a great perspective from London. I want to get to the flap at the moment, which is sort of the global wrap around the carry trade in Japan. But I want to bounce off what Lisa Matteo just said, which is people are considering layoffs. Are we just really setting ourselves up a la home depot alla, generous motors and others where companies are really going to start managing headcount?
Is that what you feel in the air.
Hey, tom So? I mean, look, that is really important news. If we start to hear more companies talking about layoffs and it really is a concern, I would say that at the moment though, I mean I think what we've been hearing on the street and across the board is, yes, companies are revisiting their labor costs. It makes sense. You know, they're looking at hire every financing costs, particularly with the funding wall coming up, and so as a result of that, they're looking at everything and they have to you know, balance off any additional cost somewhere else. And the thing that they are looking at is appraising where on the lob cost site that they can pull back on. We haven't as yet seen layoffs, but we have seen snipping around at the edges where they're produced hours, earnings, et cetera. But not quite the job layoffs at this point.
What sector do we watch to see the trend? The easy answer for Global Wall Street it's a financial sector.
But what sector would you pay attention to?
It's a financial sector cently, but it's really the consumer discretionary because that remember that the consumer site has been the key driver for the broader, ye broader US economy. If you're starting to see pullback on that area, well then that really does start to question the strength the resilience of the US economy. So that's a bit I think, which would be the really concerning side, And suddenly any areas which are really interest rate sensitive the bit that would be more cyclical and would be I guess bit more of an advanced warning that there's economic pressures building.
So Sam mcgiven that, I guess, you know, you think about a week ago Friday, with the job data really kind of spook the market, how do you think the Federal Reserve is kind of leaning at this point?
So I think this is the big question that everyone is thinking through. So I think similar to I mean, the first thing to member is that you know, just as we are absorbing the ecomic data as it comes out, that is exactly what the feathers do that. I don't think they have any additional information on top of what we do. But what we can see in assuming that the inflation data today and tomorrow are fairly well behaved, it means that they can shift their focus points to the other side of their mandate. Now, we do think that they will have to err on the side of caution. You know, maybe think about front loading of those rate cuts, whether that's back to back twenty five bases point cuts. If you have a worse labor market report come the beginning of September than certainly a fifty bases point move starts to come on to board. But the thing that you're seeing already is that FRED speakers are not all unanimous in the idea that the labor market is slowing, that inflation is under control. So I think there's a bit of consensus building that still needs to go on behind the scenes.
And Suman, we had some the manufacturing I know, this is a services driven economy here in the US seventy percent or so, but the manufacturing market, manufacturing economies week, we had some weak isms last week. What do you make of that?
Well, it's concerning, I mean, I think with the isms for the last year or so, i'ld say that they haven't been the best indicative of what's actually going on selling the hard data, So we want to take that with a pinch of salt. But this is the thing with the US of commune. I don't think en was in denial about this. They're really our pockets a weakness. It's definitely not the point I don't end what's making the point that the whole US economy is looking really strong. So I were saying manufacturing segments of housing, they're the areas where you are seeing weakness. And to your point before you know, services is the main driver. So that's a bit that if that starts to turn and starts to topple, then actually the picture for the US economy starts to really really deteriorate. The manufacturing side is clearly slowing. I think that has come through in a number of bits of data.
So where do you have nominal GDP. I mean, we're sitting here this morning in New York team we're looking at home depot with you know, not shocking that's the wrong.
Word, but.
Abruptly negative same store sales numbers. Is that just an indication that nominal GDP not only under five percent, but can begin to threaten a nominal GDP growth to three point nine percent.
So what we're seeing in our podcast as we get through to the second half of the year is that you see GDP slowing down towards that trend level somewhere between the one point seventy to two point two percent on a real GDP basis. So I do think I mean, I think the home depot is a concern because we do typically look at that. It's a bit of a forward looking indicator of what is building up in terms of strains amongst consumers. So it's one thing that we do need to really focus on and take notice of that news story. But I think that we should be expecting that, look, the use of company isn't going to stay. It's not going to stay, not going to continue to accelerate. I would expect that atlantic GDP now tracker to be coming down as a month and the quarter progresses. But I think a trend level for GDP for the second half of this year makes sense, with maybe a further slowdown at the beginning of next year before the red cants start to really come in and second half of next year starts to look a little bit stronger.
Look, so let me cut to the chase.
What does a stock market do if I've got trending tepid sea mishaw like.
We're going to get through the year.
Is there a way that equities manage to be resilient or even in proven price.
I think that they do. So I think that there's actually a window, actually a Frienny long window where equities can do okay. Now, for the first month or two, I think it is going to be challenging because the market is going to respond to every single bit of data, and ineptly across any bit of data, there's going to be pockets which you are weak, so that volatility uncertainty continues. But I think the key thing is this, in terms of a recession outlook, even if there is a genuine economic slowdown coming through, given the resilience and the balance sheet strength of households and corporates, is it likely that the Fed can't come to save the US economy with various red cuts. So I try to put the chance of recession fairly low, which means that after a bit of volatility and pullback, I think the equity market can still eke out some positive gains as we get through twenty twenty four into twenty twenty five.
That's her first ball of a week.
Yeah, there you go.
Doing it.
I mean, have we been talking about a recession for two maybe three years now? When when do we typically how often do recessions typically happen? And aren't we overdue?
So look, it depends whichever indicator you're looking at. But I mean, if you're thinking about what happens post for tightening around now is when you're meant to be in recession. So certainly with the sum rule, with the jobs numbers, et cetera, maybe it'll kind of falls together nicely that this is the time that we should be in recession. But if you look across the broader environment, you know we're not really seeing signs of that. The concern, of course, is always that once you see some layoffs, it becomes something which is self reinforcing and it can unravel very very quickly, which is why these news stories around companies announcab layoups is really really important. But as I said, as long as you have strong household and corporate balance sheets, then actually a weakness in the labor market should not be able to mutate into that kind of hard landing.
Sumer Sea, thank you so much. The Principal Assets Management, their chief Global Strategies greatly appreciate that.
Folks.
Actually, when we quote PPI, Paul and I have no idea what we're talking about.
Now.
Mcke's in my ear telling me what to do. But the reason we're doing it is to give Sarah House time to digest the numbers. Senior economist at Wells Fargo, an expert on this. Sarah House, does this PPI set confirm disinflation in place?
I think it confirms that we are seeing that disinflationary trend still underway. So we did see I think some improvement in terms of the headline and the traditional core, although if you look at what we refer to as the core core in the PPI, so that strips out an addition to food and energy trade services, which are measured in margins. That did come in a little bit firmer than expected, which I think is consistent with slowing inflation, but it's a gradual slope.
So there's a summary for you in the summary and the support we get on economic indicators. Always with Commonwealth, our economic indicators is Sarah House today brought you by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors with a two to one advisor to staff ratio small firm attentiveness, big advisor impact.
Go to Commonwealth.
Sarah, what do you think the Federal Reserve? How do you think this Federal Reserve will kind of look at these numbers this morning in totality?
Yeah, so, I think they'll be digging into the details in terms of what specifically feeds into the PCE measure. So I think, like economists and like a lot of market participants, getting a lot more dialed in into the granularity of the PCE and CPI combo what it means for the Feds in preferred inflation measure. But I think they'll be looking at a number that still seems like it's consistent with the first quarters flare up in inflation being just that a flare up and again not really derailing the disinflationary trend that started last year.
So give us your thoughts here, Sarah about this economy here. I think a lot of folks are concerned that the Fed is it's too late in cutting rates and that the risks of inflation a recession are really there and maybe the Fed's not recognizing them. How do you think about that?
Yeah, so when I look at the labor market data, and this isn't just about the July jobs report that we got a little over a week ago, but really the array of jobs market data, which shows that not only are conditions softening, but they're really back to where they were and kind of pre pandemic in some cases even mid twenty tens. I think that you are seeing that that downward momentum is concerning, and I think the recession risks have risen. But the good news is that the FED has room to dial back the level of restrictiveness that we're seeing. And I don't think a recession is a foregone conclusion, but the FED needs to get going in or to support the labor market, especially given that I think we've seen that disinflationary trend in place and no longer as much of a concern.
Let's get up to CPI to Marlin Sarah House, I mean, you've got a model on an Excel spreadsheet, one part real GDP and one part your measure of inflation equals nominal GDP. Let's go through each part right now, Where are you forward on real GDP twelve months?
Yeah, so we're looking for real GDP to slow, so probably somewhere closer to one and a half two percent over the next twelve months, and I think that is consistent with the slowdown that we're seeing in the jobs market what that means for consumer income, but with inflation slowing too, that does mean that.
So what's your inflation number that you're overlaying on a one and a half to two one point seventy five percent center tendency.
Yeah, so when you're looking at core PCEE, probably somewhere right around two percent, maybe two and a quarter, so further progress, not quite all the way back to the Fed six percent target, but we think against the labor market good enough as much.
This is critical.
So you're talking about modeling a center tendency sub four percent nominal GDP.
Roughly four percent, Yeah, given that inflation is probably going to be a little bit about it.
I'm just trying to make some news here. It's a slow day here. Sarah alse wells Fargo with us. Sarah, what are we going to see tomorrow with the CPI at eight thirty?
Yeah, So we're looking for a zero point two percent increase on both the headline and the core. So that's in line with the consensus, but I think the details are going to be really important. So to what extent are we still seeing outright goods deflation? And are we seeing more progress on the services side, both in housing but also the non housing services that have been such a concern for the Fed.
So, Sarah, I mean, I guess you know, one of the issues here is the consumer. We're also going to hear from the consumer later this week. How's the US consumer out there from your perspective, Yeah, so.
The US consumer is hanging in there, but we do think that households are increasingly constrained in their spending. So credit is more expensive, harder to get, so we're seeing less use of it. At the same time, not as much of that of that excess savings from the pandemic, And so it really comes down to the jobs market, and they'rew slower dog growth, slower nominal wage growth. That means slower slower income growth as well, right, And so we think that's where where you get that slow down in consumer spending is consumers just don't have as much to fall back on. And so they're getting more cautious as a result, but you still have positive real income gains, and so that's keeping overall spending in positive territory.
Sure, fold in your work economics into the Wells Fargo yield guess and where I want to go. I mean, I can go ten year nominal, but I'm going to go the ten year inflation is just to yield. It's in two beeps, it's in five beeps over two cups of Starbucks black coffee one point seven seven percent. How much down can real yields come when you model in a maybe four percent nomenal GDP.
Well, I think if you continue to see the improvement on the inflation side, they can they can come in a little bit more. And I think especially as if you get the FED cutting, which we think that they'll actually cut pretty aggressively here in the rest of the rest of the year. So there's there's probably still still some room to go. But we're not going back to the pre pandemic days by any means. So we think that FED easing is going to be more recalibration and not a move to accommodativeness.
Thanks so much, greatly appreciate that Sarah House with us with Wills Fargo.
They're Senior Economistic.
Your Daily front Pages, the Less of Hour, Lisa, what do you have? All Right?
We've talked about how artificial and intelligence like a lot of college kids are taking.
Courses in it.
But it turns out a lot of older Americans, we're talking about seniors, they are starting to take classes in artificial intelligence. I mean, think about it. They've gone through a lot of transitions, right, you had the icebox to the refrigerator, you had radio to TV.
Ye had they went.
Through all these transports.
Icebox I didn't point to.
I don't have a clear memory, but I have a memory of my mother waiting for the ice truck, okay to come down.
Okay, so you're in there, you're in there, all right.
So there here's bar Barbara Winston. I saw ice boxes turn into refrigerators. That is how long I've been around. But I think this is probably this being AI is the greatest technical revolution that I'll see in my lifetime. That's saying something because just Barbara Winston is eight.
Years exactly, and they're interested. I mean, think about it, like there are some things like these classes at senior centers. Now it could help them because it makes them easier to get things like medical appointments, like a I can help you at that. But it's also teaching them about the other side of it, like being successible, susceptible to misinformation like deep fakes, and seniors are very subceptible. Yeah, I think yeah.
Social note it's percolating with zel the banks. The government's looking at the banks as they should be. It's I think not the bank's fault. But the fact is all this new technology leads to people be careful out there.
Ye. Yeah, I get stuff all the time, all the time. Yeah. It used to be simple.
It was a letter from Nigeria and you could yes, take Nigeria.
It's not as simple as that anymore.
No.
You get them on your phone too. You get these weird text messages. What's crazy. We were just talking about the Olympics, right, but you remember what was missing from this year's Olympics was baseball, right, and softball have to point that out. Okay, but it's coming back in twenty twenty eight.
Right.
It's in Los Angeles. So MLB players want to play, but as you know, the lead doesn't let them. So it's kind of this back and forth about what's going on, so they never really allowed them one thing, you know, it coincides with their season, so they would have to shut down, right, I mean, but players want to play, you have show show hey Otani, He told Sports Illustrated he wants to play. Bryce Harper has been fighting for it. Aaron Judge says, it would be a dream to play in the Olympics. But could that shut down? You know what could that mean? I mean they're already cramming. You think one hundred and sixty two games into one hundred and eighty days. If they prolong it, Hockey tried it tests, they went for about two weeks. They went dark and injured and people and that's the other thing. Injuries, Like that's another thing. I mean. And then if you, let's say you postpone it, you extend the season, then you're you're competing with the NFL.
Each were way more in this. Did we lose break dancing after the way you didn't like it? Snoop was up with the stands, Knodd and Off was so bored. What else do you have?
This one?
This? The San Francisco FED says Middle low income America dynamit.
We got a problem. Excuse me, you gotta tell Ari. On YouTube, when we talk about baseball, we lead with the Red Sox. Need images, even if it's about Los Angeles, we show the Red Sox first.
Okay, next new rule, Okay.
San Francisco Fed survey middle and low income Americans. They're running out of disposable cash, but they're on track to have less than they were on pace before the pandemic. So here's what that survey showed. Just to break down the numbers, the top twenty percent of households by income, they saw their liquid assets, so we're talking about things like cash and funds and savings, checking money market accounts. They rose sharply in twenty twenty early twenty twenty one, but then they dropped. They're now about two percent below what would have been about the pandemics impact. So it's even worse for those households that represent the lowest eighty percent by income. So it's just showing how much they have.
Is I can say, and I'm so glad you did this. I can't say enough about this, folks. I follow the and there's people to keep this. A percent of Americans living paycheck to paycheck. To me is a social statement and it's shocking.
I mean, it's just and you're seeing it in some of the earnings numbers. We've heard from a lot of the consumer companies this, I mean from the fast food companies all the way across the board.
Okay, yeah, definitely. And then this is the last one, a music one. Okay, we've been talking about vinyl all the time. Everybody's going into vinyl with me. But now it's about audio cassettes. That's what the kids doing.
It's gen z.
Yes, they are listening to audio cassettes. The reason why you have a lot of these stars they're putting out their new music onto cassette, like the Musk Graves, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigu, du Alipa, Ariana Grande cassettes.
Kiss.
I want to listen to Vampire on cassettes.
Yes, because they're saying, well, here's the thing. When you compare it with vinyl, the kids are saying that it's cheaper and it's more portable.
That's what we said back into seventies.
I think I could go all day on this. I'll give you one story.
Brockton will understand this Brockton's their producer.
He'll understand this. If you can sit in.
The burger King and I twenty five, I twenty four and four ninety five, and you bribe your kids by feeding them Burger King, and you sit there with a pencil turning the cassette wheel because a foot and a half of tapes.
Out on your lap in the car.
Yep, that's how you do it.
That was technology. And they want to go back to that.
They want to go back to it. They're just they're pushing their parents. The parents are going into the attic, the garage, they're trying to find the boom boxes.
The kids can play the tape.
Does anybody in the control room have a turntable in their house? You do?
You do?
You're probably playing Jay Giles ben Right Brockton, Yeah, I mean I got Jay Giles Vinyl Well.
The first album I ever listened to and was born to run on my sister's cassette player in her bedroom. I was not allowed to take the cassette player out of the bedroom, so I had to sit on her floor on the shag rug a teal shagrug seventy five, listening to Borner Run cassette. That's how good that was.
Look at that memory. Oh my first final was Donnie and Marie Goe Coconut. It's my firks finals.
I mean, Goda love it. She's a news reporter. Donnie and Marie.
Love it all right. Such. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app,