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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

This is a joy.

This is a joy.

Charlie Klow, I think I first knew him at Colonial Management.

Charlie Klow, I think I first knew him at Colonial Management.

This is ancient.

This is ancient.

This is like John Hancock's house has just been torn down up on tree Mont Street or wherever up.

This is like John Hancock's house has just been torn down up on tree Mont Street or wherever up.

On the hill.

On the hill.

Charlie Clau is definitive in Boston, definitive with Merrill Lynch, and definitive within all the equity business. We're honored that Chuck Clow would join us right now to get an update. Chuck, you've seen bull markets before. What's the character of this bullmarket?

Charlie Clau is definitive in Boston, definitive with Merrill Lynch, and definitive within all the equity business. We're honored that Chuck Clow would join us right now to get an update. Chuck, you've seen bull markets before. What's the character of this bullmarket?

Well?

Well?

I think there are three factors playing here. Most important is inflation. The CPI inflation has declined from nine point one percent back in twenty twenty two to two point four percent today. And the personal consumption deflator, which is we all know what the FED looks at, that's running about forty basis points below that around two percent, so that's well within their target. There's a productivity boom going on. If you look at total weekly hours, they've been declining for the past two years, but the economy has grown, and that's productivity makes up the difference, and productivity means better profits. So our sense is that you've got a profit engine at the same time that inflation has been going in the right direction. And there is one third thing going on that a lot of people haven't picked up on. The private economy is generating cash, and that's unusual this late in a business cycle.

I think there are three factors playing here. Most important is inflation. The CPI inflation has declined from nine point one percent back in twenty twenty two to two point four percent today. And the personal consumption deflator, which is we all know what the FED looks at, that's running about forty basis points below that around two percent, so that's well within their target. There's a productivity boom going on. If you look at total weekly hours, they've been declining for the past two years, but the economy has grown, and that's productivity makes up the difference, and productivity means better profits. So our sense is that you've got a profit engine at the same time that inflation has been going in the right direction. And there is one third thing going on that a lot of people haven't picked up on. The private economy is generating cash, and that's unusual this late in a business cycle.

Households are saving I.

Households are saving I.

Suspect it's baby boomers saving for retirement and making sure they can.

Suspect it's baby boomers saving for retirement and making sure they can.

Fund longer life spans paid. Businesses are paying down debt. You can't. You can't go on a conference call where.

Fund longer life spans paid. Businesses are paying down debt. You can't. You can't go on a conference call where.

Management isn't trying to pay down debt here, and that's creating somewhat of a liquidity surpluses. So businesses are earning more than they're investing, and households are earning more than their safe then they're investing as well. That means we've got a savings glut and that's probably pushed will likely push interest rates down.

Management isn't trying to pay down debt here, and that's creating somewhat of a liquidity surpluses. So businesses are earning more than they're investing, and households are earning more than their safe then they're investing as well. That means we've got a savings glut and that's probably pushed will likely push interest rates down.

Chuck, how do you feel about valuation here? We're getting some we're getting into the thick of the earnings season here, How do you think about valuation in this market? We've had a nice move higher in the s and P five hundred this year.

Chuck, how do you feel about valuation here? We're getting some we're getting into the thick of the earnings season here, How do you think about valuation in this market? We've had a nice move higher in the s and P five hundred this year.

Uh, you know, I don't.

Uh, you know, I don't.

It's hard to time markets on the basis of valuation. I think with cash, with businesses generating free cash flow at the rate they are, I think valuation becomes less of a less of a factor. If the private economy is throwing off excess cash, that's going to find its way into the capital market somehow.

It's hard to time markets on the basis of valuation. I think with cash, with businesses generating free cash flow at the rate they are, I think valuation becomes less of a less of a factor. If the private economy is throwing off excess cash, that's going to find its way into the capital market somehow.

Chuck, We've had a market for the longest time, many many years that's been led by technology, and now I guess the latest iteration of that, Chuck, is the AI. What sectors do you look to continue to move this market higher?

Chuck, We've had a market for the longest time, many many years that's been led by technology, and now I guess the latest iteration of that, Chuck, is the AI. What sectors do you look to continue to move this market higher?

Well, AI is important, and quite frankly, I don't think the fangs are over. It's again, when you look at the cash flow that they generate and the growth that they have, it's not out of line at all. I mean Google, actually he trades it below market multiple so I sense that I think you want to stay there. But there are other things going on as well. Aerospace defense is an industry that is coming on Boeing's of course is wounded, but that makes Airbus all that more important and certally, I think there's one area I would look at, and it crosses industries. But if we're right and the economy is generating cash, a lot of businesses were forced to take on a lot of debt when COVID basically closed everything down. As businesses generate cash and pay down that debt, that helped pities as well. So I think anybody who's deleveraging their balance sheet, the cruise might stand to stand out in that sense.

Well, AI is important, and quite frankly, I don't think the fangs are over. It's again, when you look at the cash flow that they generate and the growth that they have, it's not out of line at all. I mean Google, actually he trades it below market multiple so I sense that I think you want to stay there. But there are other things going on as well. Aerospace defense is an industry that is coming on Boeing's of course is wounded, but that makes Airbus all that more important and certally, I think there's one area I would look at, and it crosses industries. But if we're right and the economy is generating cash, a lot of businesses were forced to take on a lot of debt when COVID basically closed everything down. As businesses generate cash and pay down that debt, that helped pities as well. So I think anybody who's deleveraging their balance sheet, the cruise might stand to stand out in that sense.

Is an opportunity there as well.

Is an opportunity there as well.

Chuck Cloher, I'd like to talk to people of a certain vintage. I think of ed Hymen, ed Yard Danny course had incredibly bullish.

Chuck Cloher, I'd like to talk to people of a certain vintage. I think of ed Hymen, ed Yard Danny course had incredibly bullish.

Let us go.

Let us go.

Back, Chuck Cloud to the nifty to fifty, the Joseph Schlitz Brewing Company. Let's see what else Black and Decker, Eastman, Kodak, Cube, Blick, zerra X Rocks, names from another time in place.

Back, Chuck Cloud to the nifty to fifty, the Joseph Schlitz Brewing Company. Let's see what else Black and Decker, Eastman, Kodak, Cube, Blick, zerra X Rocks, names from another time in place.

Chuck Clowd on the nifty seven. What's going to become of them? Are they the next Joseph Schlitz Brewing Company?

Chuck Clowd on the nifty seven. What's going to become of them? Are they the next Joseph Schlitz Brewing Company?

Well, I think what happened two things happened to the nifty seven fifty one was the course that they were very very high multiple up on the fifties, sometimes certainly thirty five to fifty times earnings. But secondly they stopped growing, and I think that was the engine that came into part. The same thing with the dot com boom. A that was that was basically supported by a dead boom, tremendous overinvestment, and of course his earnings collapsed, so did the values there.

Well, I think what happened two things happened to the nifty seven fifty one was the course that they were very very high multiple up on the fifties, sometimes certainly thirty five to fifty times earnings. But secondly they stopped growing, and I think that was the engine that came into part. The same thing with the dot com boom. A that was that was basically supported by a dead boom, tremendous overinvestment, and of course his earnings collapsed, so did the values there.

I think the.

I think the.

AI situation is quite different. These are companies with tremendous platforms. When you look at companies like Microsoft for example, you know the only company that survived the dot com boom and continued to dominate was was Microsoft. Of course Google and Amazon came on in the arts, but they made all of the transitions necessary as technology changes. They captured the cloud, they captured AI. That's a dramatic difference between these are cycles.

AI situation is quite different. These are companies with tremendous platforms. When you look at companies like Microsoft for example, you know the only company that survived the dot com boom and continued to dominate was was Microsoft. Of course Google and Amazon came on in the arts, but they made all of the transitions necessary as technology changes. They captured the cloud, they captured AI. That's a dramatic difference between these are cycles.

So I still think there are a lot.

So I still think there are a lot.

Chuck within the productivity boom you mentioned. Do you ascribe to ed Yard Denny's Roaring twenties? Can you take a vector and run it out one year, two years, three years, five years and come up with big SPX and big Dow Jones Industrial average numbers.

Chuck within the productivity boom you mentioned. Do you ascribe to ed Yard Denny's Roaring twenties? Can you take a vector and run it out one year, two years, three years, five years and come up with big SPX and big Dow Jones Industrial average numbers.

I think you can.

I think you can.

And the reason I say that is there are three factors that But let's look at the events that created forty years of declining interest rates and declining inflation, and of course that was interrupted by COVID and the tremendous government response to that.

And the reason I say that is there are three factors that But let's look at the events that created forty years of declining interest rates and declining inflation, and of course that was interrupted by COVID and the tremendous government response to that.

But those three factors were.

But those three factors were.

One. Demographics, As people aged, they get older. We've seen that in Japan for thirty years, and we started seeing that in Europe in the early teens, and now we're seeing it in the United States where we are seeing the baby boomers retire. And once you retire, you stop spending. You don't buy houses, you don't buy cars. So it's one of the reasons why we think we're beginning to see a net savings balance in the household sector, and of course i'll only pick up as the baby boomers really really do retire. And the second thing, of course, is where balance sheets are. Private debt is still one hundred and fifty percent of GDP, and that means his interest rates do go up, it slows and spending. We're seeing that in credit cards. And then thirdly there's technology, which of course is booming today. It's one investment cycle. We have you put those three things together. They only become more intense as we go through the rest of the decade. So I wouldn't give up financial assets yet.

One. Demographics, As people aged, they get older. We've seen that in Japan for thirty years, and we started seeing that in Europe in the early teens, and now we're seeing it in the United States where we are seeing the baby boomers retire. And once you retire, you stop spending. You don't buy houses, you don't buy cars. So it's one of the reasons why we think we're beginning to see a net savings balance in the household sector, and of course i'll only pick up as the baby boomers really really do retire. And the second thing, of course, is where balance sheets are. Private debt is still one hundred and fifty percent of GDP, and that means his interest rates do go up, it slows and spending. We're seeing that in credit cards. And then thirdly there's technology, which of course is booming today. It's one investment cycle. We have you put those three things together. They only become more intense as we go through the rest of the decade. So I wouldn't give up financial assets yet.

For those of you younger listening on your commute across this nation, around the world, good evening in the Pacific Rim.

For those of you younger listening on your commute across this nation, around the world, good evening in the Pacific Rim.

And on YouTube.

And on YouTube.

The cadence you're hearing from one Charles Klow is like the old days, Pauw. It wasn't rushed in frantic it was just here's the three reasons we believe there's a cadence a pace here.

The cadence you're hearing from one Charles Klow is like the old days, Pauw. It wasn't rushed in frantic it was just here's the three reasons we believe there's a cadence a pace here.

We try, chuck, what is the risk to this market here? I mean I step back and I look at the S and P five twenty percent year to date, and that was kind of in a blink of an eye. Is the risk here? Maybe the Federal Reserve makes a misstep. How what concerns you out there?

We try, chuck, what is the risk to this market here? I mean I step back and I look at the S and P five twenty percent year to date, and that was kind of in a blink of an eye. Is the risk here? Maybe the Federal Reserve makes a misstep. How what concerns you out there?

I would say, well, of course, in the geopolitical front, there's more moving targets than you can then you can really attest.

I would say, well, of course, in the geopolitical front, there's more moving targets than you can then you can really attest.

But I would say that would be the most important factor. The FED.

But I would say that would be the most important factor. The FED.

Overtightening in in a period. I think the risk for that is lower than it was in the past. I remember the FED still has a seven trillion dollar allergy and it looks like they're likely to stop there, and that gives them an awful lot of resources to take a little any kind of any kind of liquidity event that might occur. And the second is our financial sector is heavily overcapitalized, so it's it's an.

Overtightening in in a period. I think the risk for that is lower than it was in the past. I remember the FED still has a seven trillion dollar allergy and it looks like they're likely to stop there, and that gives them an awful lot of resources to take a little any kind of any kind of liquidity event that might occur. And the second is our financial sector is heavily overcapitalized, so it's it's an.

We've never really looked at before.

We've never really looked at before.

The financial sector is over capitalized at the same time as the household and corporate sectors are saving.

The financial sector is over capitalized at the same time as the household and corporate sectors are saving.

That creates a liquidy. I would say the.

That creates a liquidy. I would say the.

Biggest risk that investors might look at over the years ag is IL shortage will be back. Look at how triple b's are nearing the treasury rate. It's going to be harder and harder to find yield, and eventually that will hit the short end of the curve as well.

Biggest risk that investors might look at over the years ag is IL shortage will be back. Look at how triple b's are nearing the treasury rate. It's going to be harder and harder to find yield, and eventually that will hit the short end of the curve as well.

Charlie Clough, thank you, thank you, thank you so much, channeling Sir John Templeton there at the end.

Charlie Clough, thank you, thank you, thank you so much, channeling Sir John Templeton there at the end.

Templeton once said to me, Tom.

Templeton once said to me, Tom.

There will be a shortage of bonds. Charles Kloud legendary, of course, great to have him on, always associated with Merrill Lynch.

There will be a shortage of bonds. Charles Kloud legendary, of course, great to have him on, always associated with Merrill Lynch.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter. Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter. Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

We get wisdom from Jennifer Lawless.

We get wisdom from Jennifer Lawless.

She's at UVA, outstanding on the politics of the American system. Jennifer Lawless, as you look at the campaign now three weeks out, what does mister Trump have to accomplish today? At the Economic Club of Chicago.

She's at UVA, outstanding on the politics of the American system. Jennifer Lawless, as you look at the campaign now three weeks out, what does mister Trump have to accomplish today? At the Economic Club of Chicago.

I think Donald Trump has to make it clear to business people that he can only win the election if he focuses on the economy and if they do everything they can to act as surrogates for him.

I think Donald Trump has to make it clear to business people that he can only win the election if he focuses on the economy and if they do everything they can to act as surrogates for him.

He's had a very hard time staying on message.

He's had a very hard time staying on message.

He's had a very hard time convincing people that he has the discipline to be president again. And so this is a final shot to get people who are in that industry to make his argument.

He's had a very hard time convincing people that he has the discipline to be president again. And so this is a final shot to get people who are in that industry to make his argument.

No surprise, we had Simon Johnson on yesterday, the newly minted Nobel Prize winner, and he knows I'm going to give him the question at the end of the conversation, and I asked Professor Johnson about tariffs and he went mental like anyone.

No surprise, we had Simon Johnson on yesterday, the newly minted Nobel Prize winner, and he knows I'm going to give him the question at the end of the conversation, and I asked Professor Johnson about tariffs and he went mental like anyone.

At Darden or UVA would and just went nuts. Who out there as supporting President Trump in any tariffs, let alone sizable tariffs.

At Darden or UVA would and just went nuts. Who out there as supporting President Trump in any tariffs, let alone sizable tariffs.

People who don't know what tariffs are.

People who don't know what tariffs are.

If anything, this election has made it very clear that the two sides are talking past each other, that the Republicans have managed to subject to the American public quite successfully that fact checking is partisan and that allows Donald Trump to call a tariff anything that he wants and not take into account the fact that it really is a tax on the American people.

If anything, this election has made it very clear that the two sides are talking past each other, that the Republicans have managed to subject to the American public quite successfully that fact checking is partisan and that allows Donald Trump to call a tariff anything that he wants and not take into account the fact that it really is a tax on the American people.

Jennifer is the economic message for the Donald Trump and his campaign primarily are simply tax cuts. Is that kind of where they base most of their economic call.

Jennifer is the economic message for the Donald Trump and his campaign primarily are simply tax cuts. Is that kind of where they base most of their economic call.

That's the plan.

That's the plan.

It's unclear that he would be able to get them through, but that is the plan. But the other piece of the message is that the Biden economy didn't work and Kamala Harris is responsible for it, and those metrics just don't play out.

It's unclear that he would be able to get them through, but that is the plan. But the other piece of the message is that the Biden economy didn't work and Kamala Harris is responsible for it, and those metrics just don't play out.

The evidence isn't there for it.

The evidence isn't there for it.

But inflation, even though it's at the lowest rate that it's been in four years, is still inflation and people still feel it in their pockets. And the Democrats haven't fully figured out how to thread that needle.

But inflation, even though it's at the lowest rate that it's been in four years, is still inflation and people still feel it in their pockets. And the Democrats haven't fully figured out how to thread that needle.

Does he kind of veer off economics today at the Economic Club of New York. I mean, given the cadence and patterns supporters of mister Trump and those against mister Trump have seen over the last number of weeks, is his basic economic strategy to not talk about economics.

Does he kind of veer off economics today at the Economic Club of New York. I mean, given the cadence and patterns supporters of mister Trump and those against mister Trump have seen over the last number of weeks, is his basic economic strategy to not talk about economics.

If I were a betting woman, I would suggest that there will be a lot about immigration and the speech. The minute he mentions the economy, he doesn't seem like he can pull himself away from talking about illegal border crossings and perpetuating myths about what immigrants have done to the economy.

If I were a betting woman, I would suggest that there will be a lot about immigration and the speech. The minute he mentions the economy, he doesn't seem like he can pull himself away from talking about illegal border crossings and perpetuating myths about what immigrants have done to the economy.

So that's important, Professor Lawless, what have immigrants, legal and not legal done to the economy.

So that's important, Professor Lawless, what have immigrants, legal and not legal done to the economy.

They've actually allowed it to grow and thrive. Donald Trump wants to make an argument that immigration has taken away Americans' jobs, but I think what a lot of people don't seem to realize, and the message that the Harris campaign is trying to make clear is that there are a lot of jobs out there that people need done, and the immigrants are the backbone of this economy.

They've actually allowed it to grow and thrive. Donald Trump wants to make an argument that immigration has taken away Americans' jobs, but I think what a lot of people don't seem to realize, and the message that the Harris campaign is trying to make clear is that there are a lot of jobs out there that people need done, and the immigrants are the backbone of this economy.

Lisa Paul Sweeney, we live this every day in a cosmopolitan New York. Walk X number of blocks north south down any street in New York and tell me that many of those immigrant jobs, they're only being filled because of immigrants.

Lisa Paul Sweeney, we live this every day in a cosmopolitan New York. Walk X number of blocks north south down any street in New York and tell me that many of those immigrant jobs, they're only being filled because of immigrants.

It's been that way since the beginning of this country. I don't know why today it would be any different, Jennifer twenty one days roughly to the election. Is there anything that can move the needle one way or the other, because I'm just it just feels like it's so tight, and then both sides are so entrenched.

It's been that way since the beginning of this country. I don't know why today it would be any different, Jennifer twenty one days roughly to the election. Is there anything that can move the needle one way or the other, because I'm just it just feels like it's so tight, and then both sides are so entrenched.

It's hard to imagine any big event or what we used to call in October surprise, largely because people have already started voting. It seems like with only about four percent of people saying that they're undecided, this is now officially a turnout election. And so when Kamala Harris goes on Fox News and makes her case to Republicans who might have supported Nicki Haley, that could matter. When Donald Trump goes on Joe Rogan's podcast and tries to get a sliver of black men to vote for him, that could matter.

It's hard to imagine any big event or what we used to call in October surprise, largely because people have already started voting. It seems like with only about four percent of people saying that they're undecided, this is now officially a turnout election. And so when Kamala Harris goes on Fox News and makes her case to Republicans who might have supported Nicki Haley, that could matter. When Donald Trump goes on Joe Rogan's podcast and tries to get a sliver of black men to vote for him, that could matter.

These aren't big shops to the system. This is really just about the margins.

These aren't big shops to the system. This is really just about the margins.

And in get out the vote scenario where turnout is going to be key. Here does that favor either side at this point typically.

And in get out the vote scenario where turnout is going to be key. Here does that favor either side at this point typically.

Typically not necessarily in twenty twenty.

Typically not necessarily in twenty twenty.

It certainly did because the Democrats had a very very clear mail in ballot strategy.

It certainly did because the Democrats had a very very clear mail in ballot strategy.

They do again this time around.

They do again this time around.

The Republicans aren't as opposed to early voting and absentee ballots as they were in the past. We'll see if that message has trickled down to their voters, but my hunch is that, similar to previous elections, the country is really really split and both sides are going to do everything they can to turn out their voters.

The Republicans aren't as opposed to early voting and absentee ballots as they were in the past. We'll see if that message has trickled down to their voters, but my hunch is that, similar to previous elections, the country is really really split and both sides are going to do everything they can to turn out their voters.

Let's go to your wheelhouse a study of women in politics as well. Here's a bold question that came up to the dining room table last night, Jennifer Laws. Can a woman be elected president in America?

Let's go to your wheelhouse a study of women in politics as well. Here's a bold question that came up to the dining room table last night, Jennifer Laws. Can a woman be elected president in America?

Absolutely?

Absolutely?

I think it's important to keep in mind that although Hillary Clinton lost the electoral vote, and that's how we elect presidents, she did win the popular vote, so more people cast ballots for her than they did Donald Trump, but just didn't live in the right places. Kamala Harris is doing everything she can not to repeat the mistakes of the Clinton campaign, and if we look at the polling, it's pretty difficult to imagine a scenario whereby Harris doesn't win the popular vote by several million. Whether that translates into an electoral margin is an open question, but people are willing to cast ballots for women, and they have been down ballot for decades.

I think it's important to keep in mind that although Hillary Clinton lost the electoral vote, and that's how we elect presidents, she did win the popular vote, so more people cast ballots for her than they did Donald Trump, but just didn't live in the right places. Kamala Harris is doing everything she can not to repeat the mistakes of the Clinton campaign, and if we look at the polling, it's pretty difficult to imagine a scenario whereby Harris doesn't win the popular vote by several million. Whether that translates into an electoral margin is an open question, but people are willing to cast ballots for women, and they have been down ballot for decades.

Jennifer, thank you so much for us lawless at the University of Virginia.

Jennifer, thank you so much for us lawless at the University of Virginia.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

This is by chance.

This is by chance.

I've been efforting for the last number of days with Eric Mark Kimmitt. He is a retired brigadier general. He enjoyed the army when it was most unpopular after Vietnam. Is a battery executive officer at Camp Stanley in Korea. He has distinguished academics in finance as well as a chartered financial analyst. And we have him here by chance on a day where our John Micklthrait will speak with Donald Trump, presidential candidate and former president. We'll ask some delit delicate questions of General Kimmitt. I'm not going to mince we're's General Kimmitt and this course course over their conversations with admiralster Vedas Ben Hodges. In others, John Kelly has come out and set some terse comments about President Trump. General Miley in the new Woodward Burke with terse comments about the president. If Donald Trump is re elected, Mark Kimmitt, how does he form a defense establishment with that kind of accolade from his former employees? How does he form as commander in chief his next defense administration?

I've been efforting for the last number of days with Eric Mark Kimmitt. He is a retired brigadier general. He enjoyed the army when it was most unpopular after Vietnam. Is a battery executive officer at Camp Stanley in Korea. He has distinguished academics in finance as well as a chartered financial analyst. And we have him here by chance on a day where our John Micklthrait will speak with Donald Trump, presidential candidate and former president. We'll ask some delit delicate questions of General Kimmitt. I'm not going to mince we're's General Kimmitt and this course course over their conversations with admiralster Vedas Ben Hodges. In others, John Kelly has come out and set some terse comments about President Trump. General Miley in the new Woodward Burke with terse comments about the president. If Donald Trump is re elected, Mark Kimmitt, how does he form a defense establishment with that kind of accolade from his former employees? How does he form as commander in chief his next defense administration?

Well, Tom, the fact remains is that you've got a lot of people that object to President Trump in terms of his character and what they believe to be his confidence. But I'm sure that there is many who have not stood up and said I would vote and I would work for President Trump, because in many ways, the invective aloned that would be it would be sent and directed to those people just means that it's not worth saying that now. So I suspect there are a lot of good people out there that would work for President Trump. I would remind your audience that when we were in uniform, we were told to serve whoever was the president, and I certainly hope out of the uniform that people will do the same.

Well, Tom, the fact remains is that you've got a lot of people that object to President Trump in terms of his character and what they believe to be his confidence. But I'm sure that there is many who have not stood up and said I would vote and I would work for President Trump, because in many ways, the invective aloned that would be it would be sent and directed to those people just means that it's not worth saying that now. So I suspect there are a lot of good people out there that would work for President Trump. I would remind your audience that when we were in uniform, we were told to serve whoever was the president, and I certainly hope out of the uniform that people will do the same.

General Kimmit, you and I had a blistering conversation. I'm going to say three years ago. I'm guessing on your greatest fear, which is combat within cities. We've lived that in Ukraine, no question about it. Maybe less so in Israel. But the level of combat, the nature of combat on the Lebanese border, how is that different than what we see in Ukraine.

General Kimmit, you and I had a blistering conversation. I'm going to say three years ago. I'm guessing on your greatest fear, which is combat within cities. We've lived that in Ukraine, no question about it. Maybe less so in Israel. But the level of combat, the nature of combat on the Lebanese border, how is that different than what we see in Ukraine.

Well, I think it's more comparable to the difference between what we see in Gaza. Gaza was city fighting, inch binding in block by block, how by house. Lebanon is more of a maneuver war, even though it may not look that the Israeli Army is trying to take land and it's trying to find underground subterranean missile platforms more than they are trying to actually go against terrorists. Everybody knows that Hezbola has lost its top five tiers of leadership, so it's not really an extremely effective fighting force anymore as a large organization. The great threat to Israel is those missiles. Are those missiles they Israel wants to get its people back into the north, back to their houses, and they can't do that without taking the Hezbola rockets, and for the most part those rockets and missiles are south of the Latani and so it's more of a maneuver sweep operation in side of Lebanon right now, where as true city fighting inside of Gaza.

Well, I think it's more comparable to the difference between what we see in Gaza. Gaza was city fighting, inch binding in block by block, how by house. Lebanon is more of a maneuver war, even though it may not look that the Israeli Army is trying to take land and it's trying to find underground subterranean missile platforms more than they are trying to actually go against terrorists. Everybody knows that Hezbola has lost its top five tiers of leadership, so it's not really an extremely effective fighting force anymore as a large organization. The great threat to Israel is those missiles. Are those missiles they Israel wants to get its people back into the north, back to their houses, and they can't do that without taking the Hezbola rockets, and for the most part those rockets and missiles are south of the Latani and so it's more of a maneuver sweep operation in side of Lebanon right now, where as true city fighting inside of Gaza.

So general, with that background, how do you believe the Israelis will retaliate too against Iran, because that's kind of I think the next step for a lot of observers.

So general, with that background, how do you believe the Israelis will retaliate too against Iran, because that's kind of I think the next step for a lot of observers.

Sure, it's actually pretty clear on how the real question is when I just got off of an Israeli station where or having that conversation. They've taken off the target menu oil installations and nuclear facilities, probably for many, many good reasons as well as political reasons to take some pressure off the Hairs campaign. But that menu still has a whole lot of entrees on it. You can go against infrastructure, you can go against military targets, you can do inside of Iran. Continue what you've been doing inside of Iran, which is targeted assassinations. The purpose in the mind of Netanyahu is not to defeat or destroy, but is to reestablish deterrence against Iran so that Iran knows that if it ever does attack Israel again, the pain that will be inflicted upon them, will be so harsh as to deter them from doing that. That's what he's trying to do. He's not trying to take land, he's not trying to destroy, he's not trying to defeat. He simply wants to set up a deterrence structure that had held since seventy nine and had been breached in the last year.

Sure, it's actually pretty clear on how the real question is when I just got off of an Israeli station where or having that conversation. They've taken off the target menu oil installations and nuclear facilities, probably for many, many good reasons as well as political reasons to take some pressure off the Hairs campaign. But that menu still has a whole lot of entrees on it. You can go against infrastructure, you can go against military targets, you can do inside of Iran. Continue what you've been doing inside of Iran, which is targeted assassinations. The purpose in the mind of Netanyahu is not to defeat or destroy, but is to reestablish deterrence against Iran so that Iran knows that if it ever does attack Israel again, the pain that will be inflicted upon them, will be so harsh as to deter them from doing that. That's what he's trying to do. He's not trying to take land, he's not trying to destroy, he's not trying to defeat. He simply wants to set up a deterrence structure that had held since seventy nine and had been breached in the last year.

General, welby, have you on. We must ask you about your thoughts on the Ukraine. Sometimes it gets a little bit lost here in the headlines coming out of the Middle East. Here it hasn't. How do you think this plays out, General, over the next three months, six months, twelve months? Is that the timeframe?

General, welby, have you on. We must ask you about your thoughts on the Ukraine. Sometimes it gets a little bit lost here in the headlines coming out of the Middle East. Here it hasn't. How do you think this plays out, General, over the next three months, six months, twelve months? Is that the timeframe?

Well, two things. Let me do a little self promotion. I'm doing a videotaping tomorrow for the Wall Street Journalist. I have done a number of times on the state of the war inside of Ukraine. Two years ago to plus years ago. About three months into the war starting, I wrote an article for Wall Street journal saying that this war was going to turn into a bloody stalemate. And that's exactly what's happened. There's not going to be a whole lot of maneuver on the ground, there should not be unlikely there will be any breakthroughs. And now we're getting into the muddy season where there will be very little maneuver as well. So I think we've got to accept the fact that Russia and in general and Putin in particular are making this a war of exhaustion on Ukraine. Ukraine is running out of troops, Ukraine is running out of equipment. Russia is not. So at some point in time it would be wise for Zelensky to start looking at what is negotiations options are, since the military options seem to be coming to an end.

Well, two things. Let me do a little self promotion. I'm doing a videotaping tomorrow for the Wall Street Journalist. I have done a number of times on the state of the war inside of Ukraine. Two years ago to plus years ago. About three months into the war starting, I wrote an article for Wall Street journal saying that this war was going to turn into a bloody stalemate. And that's exactly what's happened. There's not going to be a whole lot of maneuver on the ground, there should not be unlikely there will be any breakthroughs. And now we're getting into the muddy season where there will be very little maneuver as well. So I think we've got to accept the fact that Russia and in general and Putin in particular are making this a war of exhaustion on Ukraine. Ukraine is running out of troops, Ukraine is running out of equipment. Russia is not. So at some point in time it would be wise for Zelensky to start looking at what is negotiations options are, since the military options seem to be coming to an end.

Jeneral Kimmitt, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Savannahs this morning. Mark Kimmitt there and look for his work for the Wall Street Journal with the update on Ukraine.

Jeneral Kimmitt, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Savannahs this morning. Mark Kimmitt there and look for his work for the Wall Street Journal with the update on Ukraine.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Fluent from Los Angeles, BOEC Lisa Matteo here with the newspapers.

Fluent from Los Angeles, BOEC Lisa Matteo here with the newspapers.

Lisa, what do you.

Lisa, what do you.

Have all right? More people been talking to chatbots nowadays, right, so it's becoming like normal conversation. So the dilemma now is AI etiquette. Should you be polite to your chatbot? So, for example, if it helps you, do you say thank you? If it doesn't, do you say not nice words to it? Or is it just transactional and you say nothing? So this is becoming a really big conversation on social media. There's a debate whether bots are also keeping tabs on who is nice to them, because research actually shows that if you give an impolite prompt, it may lead to increased bias. It may not even answer your question for those of us, Yes, what's.

Have all right? More people been talking to chatbots nowadays, right, so it's becoming like normal conversation. So the dilemma now is AI etiquette. Should you be polite to your chatbot? So, for example, if it helps you, do you say thank you? If it doesn't, do you say not nice words to it? Or is it just transactional and you say nothing? So this is becoming a really big conversation on social media. There's a debate whether bots are also keeping tabs on who is nice to them, because research actually shows that if you give an impolite prompt, it may lead to increased bias. It may not even answer your question for those of us, Yes, what's.

A chat bot?

A chat bot?

So if you're if you're talking to let's say like chat, GPT or something, or or if you're let's say online with with anyone with one of those AI assistants that you see somewhere, let's say your bank, Yeah you.

So if you're if you're talking to let's say like chat, GPT or something, or or if you're let's say online with with anyone with one of those AI assistants that you see somewhere, let's say your bank, Yeah you.

Can't follow, you'll help me here. What's the thing you hear?

Can't follow, you'll help me here. What's the thing you hear?

You got an app on your phone a QR code.

You got an app on your phone a QR code.

No, that's different.

No, that's different.

Now there's a scam where people are putting stickers over them to take your money.

Now there's a scam where people are putting stickers over them to take your money.

Trust chat, but you trust this new digital world.

Trust chat, but you trust this new digital world.

Trust it's because I've put questions into chat GPT and then I fact check it and then it's not right. So it's worth CHPT like section three of the newspaper.

Trust it's because I've put questions into chat GPT and then I fact check it and then it's not right. So it's worth CHPT like section three of the newspaper.

I don't know loves it really. Yeah, he's on the cutting edge.

I don't know loves it really. Yeah, he's on the cutting edge.

You have to do I have to You have to do your research and double fact checked everything.

You have to do I have to You have to do your research and double fact checked everything.

We should always be polite, okay, real and digital? Why not?

We should always be polite, okay, real and digital? Why not?

Yeah?

Yeah?

What's it downside? AI etiquette?

What's it downside? AI etiquette?

Who are Okay? Financial Times is saying Jane Street interns make more than Cure Starmer and j Powell. Okay, so they took a look at interns. Okay. This is some of James Reed's current job postings. Quantitative research internship in New York doesn't even require finance industry experience and annualize based salary of two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Also adds for software engineering internship. Machine learning researcher summer gig pays two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year as well. So they put they put into contexts. They say Prime Minister Cure Starmer currently paid about two hundred and twenty four thousand, j Powell approximately two hundred and three thousand. So they're just kind of putting this into perspective.

Who are Okay? Financial Times is saying Jane Street interns make more than Cure Starmer and j Powell. Okay, so they took a look at interns. Okay. This is some of James Reed's current job postings. Quantitative research internship in New York doesn't even require finance industry experience and annualize based salary of two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Also adds for software engineering internship. Machine learning researcher summer gig pays two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year as well. So they put they put into contexts. They say Prime Minister Cure Starmer currently paid about two hundred and twenty four thousand, j Powell approximately two hundred and three thousand. So they're just kind of putting this into perspective.

Here, pandemic.

Here, pandemic.

This is a huge deal, huge. I'm glad you did this, Lisa post pandemic. There are wages to scriptancies like an accounting It's comedic how under paid accountants are right now and you're seeing this and they're readjusting to find where the market is. That's what it takes to get some of these rapiers. Somebody was complaining yesterday about what they have to pay economists.

This is a huge deal, huge. I'm glad you did this, Lisa post pandemic. There are wages to scriptancies like an accounting It's comedic how under paid accountants are right now and you're seeing this and they're readjusting to find where the market is. That's what it takes to get some of these rapiers. Somebody was complaining yesterday about what they have to pay economists.

It's schools, that's the run rate.

It's schools, that's the run rate.

You don't get these kids out of you know, name the school, Chicago, Stanford, whatever, the starting is two hundred xx, you.

You don't get these kids out of you know, name the school, Chicago, Stanford, whatever, the starting is two hundred xx, you.

Know, twenty two thousand, five hundred. My first job at payin Webber nineteen eighty so, and I live like a king by the way in the city.

Know, twenty two thousand, five hundred. My first job at payin Webber nineteen eighty so, and I live like a king by the way in the city.

Well that's the thing. Can you live like a king now in New York City?

Well that's the thing. Can you live like a king now in New York City?

One hundred and forty thousand right now, New York City, single and you got addressed decently at work.

One hundred and forty thousand right now, New York City, single and you got addressed decently at work.

Those Patagonians are expect.

Those Patagonians are expect.

Again.

Again.

Okay, So Katie Kaminsky's.

Okay, So Katie Kaminsky's.

Laughing, I see you up here, Katie.

Laughing, I see you up here, Katie.

Katie's Katie knows there's no one if simplex.

Katie's Katie knows there's no one if simplex.

It's not wearing a patagonia.

It's not wearing a patagonia.

Imagine there you go New York City restaurants, they have this big challenge. Now, okay, gen Z doesn't know what happy hour is this Okay.

Imagine there you go New York City restaurants, they have this big challenge. Now, okay, gen Z doesn't know what happy hour is this Okay.

It's very sa.

It's very sa.

Are because I'm going to Rome, no visit.

Are because I'm going to Rome, no visit.

The Post had an interview with the co founder of Catch Hospitality, so he said, the pandemic changed everything. Right, people used to the nine to five at five oh one, yeah you're happy, right, Okay, but now the hours of change, so people are not working the same hours, they're working from home. Everything has changed. Gen Z is also drinking less, so now these restaurant tours were paying exhorbed amounts of rent, rent and their staff, so they're now dealing with this so they have like non alcoholic menus. Some are deciding to move to Dallas Miami, like it's it's changing the whole landscape of how they have to do things.

The Post had an interview with the co founder of Catch Hospitality, so he said, the pandemic changed everything. Right, people used to the nine to five at five oh one, yeah you're happy, right, Okay, but now the hours of change, so people are not working the same hours, they're working from home. Everything has changed. Gen Z is also drinking less, so now these restaurant tours were paying exhorbed amounts of rent, rent and their staff, so they're now dealing with this so they have like non alcoholic menus. Some are deciding to move to Dallas Miami, like it's it's changing the whole landscape of how they have to do things.

You pay feeling why I got a happy hour dreams before dinner last night in the city brass Monkey Downtown. I haven't been there in one hundred years. Boom is like, I never left.

You pay feeling why I got a happy hour dreams before dinner last night in the city brass Monkey Downtown. I haven't been there in one hundred years. Boom is like, I never left.

But what's a happy hour price?

But what's a happy hour price?

Now?

Now?

I don't know.

I don't know.

It's just kind of my card had a couple of cocktails and it's dinner. I mean, I don't worry about it, but it's you know, but there were people they did, young young folks there popping in around.

It's just kind of my card had a couple of cocktails and it's dinner. I mean, I don't worry about it, but it's you know, but there were people they did, young young folks there popping in around.

Yes, but what they're starting to do is increase the food price to compensate for that.

Yes, but what they're starting to do is increase the food price to compensate for that.

Yeah, that's but is Wednesday or Thursday?

Yeah, that's but is Wednesday or Thursday?

Folks? Email it on YouTube? Let us know. Is Thursday or Wednesday the new Friday? I think it's a really important.

Folks? Email it on YouTube? Let us know. Is Thursday or Wednesday the new Friday? I think it's a really important.

Here's the thing. I'll noticed that the traffic down to the Jersey Shore on Thursday afternoon is what it used to be Friday. People are just not working Fridays Friday. Yes, so Thursday's a new Friday.

Here's the thing. I'll noticed that the traffic down to the Jersey Shore on Thursday afternoon is what it used to be Friday. People are just not working Fridays Friday. Yes, so Thursday's a new Friday.

Is one more okay. New report says US calorie intake could reduce by trillions by twenty thirty because of the popular weight loss drugs. So there was a study that came out that showed this GLP drunk drugs like ozembic we gov. They're starting to change how people eat eat. People want to eat healthier options, less processed food. They base this on grocery sales, but they're saying it's going to change how grocers actually stock and lay out the whole grocery store. So your store will start to look different after a while as is, you know, as people start to eat healthier eat less. So that's the whole point of this survey is showing how the escape of the landscape of the grocery store is changing.

Is one more okay. New report says US calorie intake could reduce by trillions by twenty thirty because of the popular weight loss drugs. So there was a study that came out that showed this GLP drunk drugs like ozembic we gov. They're starting to change how people eat eat. People want to eat healthier options, less processed food. They base this on grocery sales, but they're saying it's going to change how grocers actually stock and lay out the whole grocery store. So your store will start to look different after a while as is, you know, as people start to eat healthier eat less. So that's the whole point of this survey is showing how the escape of the landscape of the grocery store is changing.

A Lisa Tello, thank you so much the newspapers at today.

A Lisa Tello, thank you so much the newspapers at today.

This is the.

This is the.

Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.