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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Long Goodwin joints as chief market strategist and economists for New York Life. She braves, the rain comes into our New York studio, not mailing it in. Lauren, You've got a research piecee. You're looking at the earnings from this past season, and you kind of say, hey, we got two Americas out there.

Long Goodwin joints as chief market strategist and economists for New York Life. She braves, the rain comes into our New York studio, not mailing it in. Lauren, You've got a research piecee. You're looking at the earnings from this past season, and you kind of say, hey, we got two Americas out there.

What do you mean by that?

What do you mean by that?

Well, it's really leveraging a Tom Keen sort of topic of the decade. But there is a very clear bifurcation in not just the consumer but also in corporate America. And what I mean by that is, if you have a little bit of investment money, a salary job, you are doing despite everything just fine. In this economy. You've been making money on your money, including your cash. Your salary's been keeping up with inflation. But for those that benefit in the early days of the pandemic from stimulus checks from strong wage growth, the lower income. Consumer is really really struggling with inflation with the cost of capital, and that exact same thing is happening for companies. And so what it means is a couple of things. First, the risk the biggest risk to the economy and this is a little bit backwards. The biggest risk to the economy I think in the next year is a twenty percent pull back in the S and P five hundred, because so much of this economy is driven by consumer spending, and so much of that wealth effect and confidence is sitting in the equity market.

Well, it's really leveraging a Tom Keen sort of topic of the decade. But there is a very clear bifurcation in not just the consumer but also in corporate America. And what I mean by that is, if you have a little bit of investment money, a salary job, you are doing despite everything just fine. In this economy. You've been making money on your money, including your cash. Your salary's been keeping up with inflation. But for those that benefit in the early days of the pandemic from stimulus checks from strong wage growth, the lower income. Consumer is really really struggling with inflation with the cost of capital, and that exact same thing is happening for companies. And so what it means is a couple of things. First, the risk the biggest risk to the economy and this is a little bit backwards. The biggest risk to the economy I think in the next year is a twenty percent pull back in the S and P five hundred, because so much of this economy is driven by consumer spending, and so much of that wealth effect and confidence is sitting in the equity market.

And especially because the last if you go back the down years for the S and P five hundred, I mean because I mean back to back gains for the past two years, I mean on pace for over twenty percent. We haven't seen that since the dot com bubble. But also the only down years twenty twenty two we had the bear market, and then twenty eighteen because there was that big sell off of that final quarter in that December was like the worst quarter since two thousand and eight. But I mean, other than that, I mean, what is the It seems kind of tricky because we're so early in into a bull run. The S and P five hundreds up like seventy percent since low in October of twenty twenty two. That's not even like half the average of a typical bull run. So I mean, what would really take to see a down year and not just have like an average type of gain of around nine or ten percent, you know.

And especially because the last if you go back the down years for the S and P five hundred, I mean because I mean back to back gains for the past two years, I mean on pace for over twenty percent. We haven't seen that since the dot com bubble. But also the only down years twenty twenty two we had the bear market, and then twenty eighteen because there was that big sell off of that final quarter in that December was like the worst quarter since two thousand and eight. But I mean, other than that, I mean, what is the It seems kind of tricky because we're so early in into a bull run. The S and P five hundreds up like seventy percent since low in October of twenty twenty two. That's not even like half the average of a typical bull run. So I mean, what would really take to see a down year and not just have like an average type of gain of around nine or ten percent, you know.

Any number of things. And it's not really even our base case that we would see that that draw down. It's a it's just a reflection that this economy, though incredibly robust, is starting to see its phrase on the edges. And I think what that means is that if you if you have our base case, which is a pretty good year we're expecting, you know, five to seven percent on the equity market might not feel so great after the last couple of years that we had, but it's.

Any number of things. And it's not really even our base case that we would see that that draw down. It's a it's just a reflection that this economy, though incredibly robust, is starting to see its phrase on the edges. And I think what that means is that if you if you have our base case, which is a pretty good year we're expecting, you know, five to seven percent on the equity market might not feel so great after the last couple of years that we had, but it's.

Wondering to five to seven percent, is that more because of the broadening out and so you'd see more equal weight, small caps, other things taking parts. So then the ones that have been the bigger waitings, like the mag seven, it's like still there strong gains, it's just you're seeing other parts of the index catching up. Is that the case for next year?

Wondering to five to seven percent, is that more because of the broadening out and so you'd see more equal weight, small caps, other things taking parts. So then the ones that have been the bigger waitings, like the mag seven, it's like still there strong gains, it's just you're seeing other parts of the index catching up. Is that the case for next year?

Yeah?

Yeah?

I think it is part of the case for next year. Really five to seven percent is a function of economic growth. Right now three and a half percent real. That's wild, and I expect growth to slow back to trend. That's still a good economic outcome. It's just also still slowing growth from where we are today, and that's an environment where you do need to see more of the S and P five hundred do the work. We're not enormously bullish on small caps or junkiear stocks because of this bifurcation we're seeing in the economic environment, but what it means is that you probably have leadership EBB and flow a bit more over the next couple of years, whereas there's been a pretty clear dominant leadership from the Magnificent Seven as a result of Ai Laaren.

I think it is part of the case for next year. Really five to seven percent is a function of economic growth. Right now three and a half percent real. That's wild, and I expect growth to slow back to trend. That's still a good economic outcome. It's just also still slowing growth from where we are today, and that's an environment where you do need to see more of the S and P five hundred do the work. We're not enormously bullish on small caps or junkiear stocks because of this bifurcation we're seeing in the economic environment, but what it means is that you probably have leadership EBB and flow a bit more over the next couple of years, whereas there's been a pretty clear dominant leadership from the Magnificent Seven as a result of Ai Laaren.

When we all woke up on Wednesday two weeks ago with a new president and now I decidedly Republican led Congress, did that change your outlook of the markets at all or how you think about opportunities.

When we all woke up on Wednesday two weeks ago with a new president and now I decidedly Republican led Congress, did that change your outlook of the markets at all or how you think about opportunities.

It's such an important question because I think over those same couple of weeks we've been sort of grappling with what are the Trump trades and now what are the Trump trade offs? Which which of those knee jerk reactions are going to sit with us, and there are a couple that I think will, and those are the ones that are accentuated by some of the things we already knew. First of all, that growth has been stickier, inflation been stickier than even year after year economists like myself have expected that. When you add uncertainty around how much government spending will have points to higher and more volatile interest rates. It means that even though credit quality is pretty strong, we need to stay short duration or focused on structured credit. From my perspective. Another one that I expect to stick with us for the same combination of reasons is the strength and the US dollar. When you see the US dollar weekend, it's because x US growth is outperforming and I just don't see any path to that in the next year. Doesn't mean we'll keep seeing gains in the dollar like we've seen in the past couple weeks consistently. It just means that we're likely to see that strength persist.

It's such an important question because I think over those same couple of weeks we've been sort of grappling with what are the Trump trades and now what are the Trump trade offs? Which which of those knee jerk reactions are going to sit with us, and there are a couple that I think will, and those are the ones that are accentuated by some of the things we already knew. First of all, that growth has been stickier, inflation been stickier than even year after year economists like myself have expected that. When you add uncertainty around how much government spending will have points to higher and more volatile interest rates. It means that even though credit quality is pretty strong, we need to stay short duration or focused on structured credit. From my perspective. Another one that I expect to stick with us for the same combination of reasons is the strength and the US dollar. When you see the US dollar weekend, it's because x US growth is outperforming and I just don't see any path to that in the next year. Doesn't mean we'll keep seeing gains in the dollar like we've seen in the past couple weeks consistently. It just means that we're likely to see that strength persist.

That's interesting because the DXY, if you look at this right now and you kind of draw back to twenty twenty one, in that timeframe, it's bumping up that resistance that we would have seen back in about a year ago, in twenty twenty three, and then going back to twenty twenty one. But is that kind of the biggest risk to potentially more of a more robust gains in the equity market if you continue to see dollar strength.

That's interesting because the DXY, if you look at this right now and you kind of draw back to twenty twenty one, in that timeframe, it's bumping up that resistance that we would have seen back in about a year ago, in twenty twenty three, and then going back to twenty twenty one. But is that kind of the biggest risk to potentially more of a more robust gains in the equity market if you continue to see dollar strength.

I think the biggest risk to the equity market is rates, but they are they're not driven by one hundred percent exactly the same things, but they have a lot of the same underlying underlying contributors. Namely that US growth has been outperforming, US inflation has been outperforming. That keeps rates sticky, like unlikely to see the volume of FED cuts that we'd expect, and that also of course keeps the dollar higher.

I think the biggest risk to the equity market is rates, but they are they're not driven by one hundred percent exactly the same things, but they have a lot of the same underlying underlying contributors. Namely that US growth has been outperforming, US inflation has been outperforming. That keeps rates sticky, like unlikely to see the volume of FED cuts that we'd expect, and that also of course keeps the dollar higher.

What did you take away from this earning season that we're just kind of wrapping up here, What did it tell you?

What did you take away from this earning season that we're just kind of wrapping up here, What did it tell you?

Well, it told me that this sort of bifurcation of the consumer bifurcation and quality that we're seeing as persisting. And though as I do expect that we'll see more winners not just from the AI trade as it broadens into energy and electrification, but also from the market in general as growth sort of stabilizes. But that is that demands an acid allocation shift over the course of the year. A new focus for investors really reflected in that data.

Well, it told me that this sort of bifurcation of the consumer bifurcation and quality that we're seeing as persisting. And though as I do expect that we'll see more winners not just from the AI trade as it broadens into energy and electrification, but also from the market in general as growth sort of stabilizes. But that is that demands an acid allocation shift over the course of the year. A new focus for investors really reflected in that data.

Something else I've been keeping a close eye on, too, is looking at S and P five hundred earnings but excluding energy, because that was the one that saw kind of the biggest markdowns coming into third quarter earning season. Right now, I mean, the growth is still around ten eleven percent when you're excluding that sector going into next year, even those revisions look like it's more commodity driven. How do you view energy in particular, and do you still think the other parts of the index will still hold up for next year when it comes to earnings growth.

Something else I've been keeping a close eye on, too, is looking at S and P five hundred earnings but excluding energy, because that was the one that saw kind of the biggest markdowns coming into third quarter earning season. Right now, I mean, the growth is still around ten eleven percent when you're excluding that sector going into next year, even those revisions look like it's more commodity driven. How do you view energy in particular, and do you still think the other parts of the index will still hold up for next year when it comes to earnings growth.

I am relatively constructive on energy because I think that not only is it an important part of the administration and the sort of Trump trade dynamic just from a sentiment perspective, but increasingly it is the bottleneck for artificial intelligence. There's lots of really cool and interesting stats about how we as a global economy need to add Germany's size of electricity production over the next couple of years to keep up. Increasingly, chip makers have been able to keep up with Moore's law, but energy efficiency hasn't kept up. We need more energy per unit of compute now already than was the case a year ago, and so that constraint on the one of the most important trends in the economy I think, involves more capital intensive investment in support of that sector.

I am relatively constructive on energy because I think that not only is it an important part of the administration and the sort of Trump trade dynamic just from a sentiment perspective, but increasingly it is the bottleneck for artificial intelligence. There's lots of really cool and interesting stats about how we as a global economy need to add Germany's size of electricity production over the next couple of years to keep up. Increasingly, chip makers have been able to keep up with Moore's law, but energy efficiency hasn't kept up. We need more energy per unit of compute now already than was the case a year ago, and so that constraint on the one of the most important trends in the economy I think, involves more capital intensive investment in support of that sector.

Tom Keen and I and some others we were part of the AI panel that hosted by Bloomberg Intelligence a couple of days.

Tom Keen and I and some others we were part of the AI panel that hosted by Bloomberg Intelligence a couple of days.

Ago here in New York.

Ago here in New York.

AI.

AI.

I mean, how do you think about it? Do you just how important is that to you as a strategist and the economist.

I mean, how do you think about it? Do you just how important is that to you as a strategist and the economist.

Well, it's important in two ways, at least two ways. One is the broader economic trajectory we're on and the idea that this capital intensity of not just AI but reglobalization, it does give us a medium term constructive outlook when you think about the private capital markets or a long term view, you do see a lot to be constructive about in terms of just investment needs related to this trend. But the other thing that's important as a strategist is just the acknowledgment that though every move up in the Magnificent seven has been justified by earnings, we are beginning to see their constraints. We are beginning to see more competition I don't know that that plays out in the first half of twenty twenty five, but the broadening of the trend into infrastructure and then eventually into corporate use cases will mean a broadening in S and P five hundred earnings.

Well, it's important in two ways, at least two ways. One is the broader economic trajectory we're on and the idea that this capital intensity of not just AI but reglobalization, it does give us a medium term constructive outlook when you think about the private capital markets or a long term view, you do see a lot to be constructive about in terms of just investment needs related to this trend. But the other thing that's important as a strategist is just the acknowledgment that though every move up in the Magnificent seven has been justified by earnings, we are beginning to see their constraints. We are beginning to see more competition I don't know that that plays out in the first half of twenty twenty five, but the broadening of the trend into infrastructure and then eventually into corporate use cases will mean a broadening in S and P five hundred earnings.

Lauren, thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate it.

Lauren, thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate it.

Lauren Goodwin, she's a chief market strategist and economists to add New York Life.

Lauren Goodwin, she's a chief market strategist and economists to add New York Life.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Otto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch US live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Otto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch US live on YouTube.

Let's talk about the economics over in Europe.

Let's talk about the economics over in Europe.

Some weaker pmis came out today, I think, surprising some people as to you know, kind of going back into a contraction across there.

Some weaker pmis came out today, I think, surprising some people as to you know, kind of going back into a contraction across there.

Doctor vania A.

Doctor vania A.

Stravakova, professor of economics that the London Business School joins us. Professor, talk to us about the economic activity we're seeing across Europe these days.

Stravakova, professor of economics that the London Business School joins us. Professor, talk to us about the economic activity we're seeing across Europe these days.

I mean, the center banks are easy, but still some challenges out there. What are you seeing?

I mean, the center banks are easy, but still some challenges out there. What are you seeing?

So thank you so much for having me. Unfortunately we don't have many good news in Europe, both the Eurozone and the UK, and we have seen significant divergence also reflected in the stock market performance, as you're of course aware. So since the Trump elections, the you know, the eurostocks fifty has decreased substantially, while the smp it struck has increased. What's interesting is if you look at historical data, and let's go not go back that much in his readly, but post the global financial crisis, you find a very high correlation between augur good stock market price growth returns across the US and the Eurozone for example. So in the data the correlation is around eighty six percent. However we see sometimes divergence. So nowadays we definitely have the divergence since the election. And another period during which we had significant divergence was during the post twenty sixteen Trump elections. So if you look particularly during the period from June twenty sixteen until June twenty nineteen, you find that the correlation between the US and the Eurozone stock market drops to seventy percent, which is a drop of sixteen percent. Now what does this mean. Well, actually, I have recent work which allows me to decompose the movements of it U syncratic stock prices, but also our good stock market indices into easy to interpret components. So what do we do in a paper titled Elephants and Equity Markets. So we take let's say individual stock price growth rate or the augur good stock market, and we decompose that growth rate into the subcomponents of the growth rate of holdings. So what are those components. Well, the stock price could be moving because the portfolio managers are rebalancing their weights, the weights that they place on this stock or stock market in their portfolio. It could be moving because of what we called wealth effects. So let's say the native fit returns of the funds. They're good, so it is like an implification effect. They could be moving because of final inflos alsos into the funds and also exchange the evaluation effects which kepture for example that US do or investors called global stocks for examples.

So thank you so much for having me. Unfortunately we don't have many good news in Europe, both the Eurozone and the UK, and we have seen significant divergence also reflected in the stock market performance, as you're of course aware. So since the Trump elections, the you know, the eurostocks fifty has decreased substantially, while the smp it struck has increased. What's interesting is if you look at historical data, and let's go not go back that much in his readly, but post the global financial crisis, you find a very high correlation between augur good stock market price growth returns across the US and the Eurozone for example. So in the data the correlation is around eighty six percent. However we see sometimes divergence. So nowadays we definitely have the divergence since the election. And another period during which we had significant divergence was during the post twenty sixteen Trump elections. So if you look particularly during the period from June twenty sixteen until June twenty nineteen, you find that the correlation between the US and the Eurozone stock market drops to seventy percent, which is a drop of sixteen percent. Now what does this mean. Well, actually, I have recent work which allows me to decompose the movements of it U syncratic stock prices, but also our good stock market indices into easy to interpret components. So what do we do in a paper titled Elephants and Equity Markets. So we take let's say individual stock price growth rate or the augur good stock market, and we decompose that growth rate into the subcomponents of the growth rate of holdings. So what are those components. Well, the stock price could be moving because the portfolio managers are rebalancing their weights, the weights that they place on this stock or stock market in their portfolio. It could be moving because of what we called wealth effects. So let's say the native fit returns of the funds. They're good, so it is like an implification effect. They could be moving because of final inflos alsos into the funds and also exchange the evaluation effects which kepture for example that US do or investors called global stocks for examples.

Also, we won't point up because Paul was talking about this earlier, looking at the euro in particular fall into its lowest level since twenty twenty two, walk us through kind of the dynamics when you're thinking about Germany and France, because that's obviously the Eurozone's two largest economies, and we were thinking about those increasing bets that the ECB is going to have to boost the economies' region by potentially a half point cut, whereas over here, if you're thinking about the Federal Reserve, that's getting dialed back to potentially maybe even a pause potentially in December. Walk us through the dynamics when you're thinking about what's happening in the Eurozone versus what's happening over here in the US. And then of course very different dynamics if you're thinking about the being Japan.

Also, we won't point up because Paul was talking about this earlier, looking at the euro in particular fall into its lowest level since twenty twenty two, walk us through kind of the dynamics when you're thinking about Germany and France, because that's obviously the Eurozone's two largest economies, and we were thinking about those increasing bets that the ECB is going to have to boost the economies' region by potentially a half point cut, whereas over here, if you're thinking about the Federal Reserve, that's getting dialed back to potentially maybe even a pause potentially in December. Walk us through the dynamics when you're thinking about what's happening in the Eurozone versus what's happening over here in the US. And then of course very different dynamics if you're thinking about the being Japan.

Yeah, so in general, you know, using this the complition, it can trace you to Portfoy a way changes. So it's the same nowadays.

Yeah, so in general, you know, using this the complition, it can trace you to Portfoy a way changes. So it's the same nowadays.

So why are the.

So why are the.

Investors rebalancing their portfolios differently with respect to Eurozone countries than the US, Which is kind of aligned with your question. Why now we see that we're pricing differently, let's say, French and German stocks relative to the US stocks. So what are the news potentially driving the divergency at the moment? So what they see happening is definitely there is a lot of concern of course, around tariffs and differential regulation across the industries in the US and Europe. Granted that the euro Zone is a much more open economy, tariffs are going to hurt much more the Eurozone than the US, So that's one of the factors. Another factor, which I believe is going to be first over the importance. Maybe not so much priced in at the moment, but it's going to be priced in soon enough and definitely in the medium run, is the different physical sustainability across the Eurozone and the US. So we already seen in the UK we saw the latest budget which implied significantly increased in terms of taxes the for essentially capital, you know, essentially forums. So this is definitely going to slow down growth. I do believe that the Eurozone is not different in the UK. Both the UK and the Eurozone have unsustainable welfare states given the current tax system. What do I mean by this? We're taxing labor as much as possible, meaning probably we have reached the maximum amount of taxation we can impose on middle income and higher income earners. So we need to start taxing capital. We're seeing that in the form of labor. This is not so easy to do. If you tax capital, also you decrease real down growth. What do you see in the US, it's exactly the opposite. Right, we got Trump, people anticipate lower taxes on farms. But moreover the fact that he appointed Ellen must do a newly formed essentially agency that is the only goal of which is to decrease the size of the government. We would inspect that the goal of the Troup administration is to decrease the amount of taxes you need to essentially get in the future in order to finance the government. This is very different for what's happening in Europe. So this is going to definitely hint the growth in Europe overall. How do we fund the welfare states? What do we tax? Who do we tax? Higher taxes definitely have going to translate with so in lower growth and of course worse performance in the stock markets.

Investors rebalancing their portfolios differently with respect to Eurozone countries than the US, Which is kind of aligned with your question. Why now we see that we're pricing differently, let's say, French and German stocks relative to the US stocks. So what are the news potentially driving the divergency at the moment? So what they see happening is definitely there is a lot of concern of course, around tariffs and differential regulation across the industries in the US and Europe. Granted that the euro Zone is a much more open economy, tariffs are going to hurt much more the Eurozone than the US, So that's one of the factors. Another factor, which I believe is going to be first over the importance. Maybe not so much priced in at the moment, but it's going to be priced in soon enough and definitely in the medium run, is the different physical sustainability across the Eurozone and the US. So we already seen in the UK we saw the latest budget which implied significantly increased in terms of taxes the for essentially capital, you know, essentially forums. So this is definitely going to slow down growth. I do believe that the Eurozone is not different in the UK. Both the UK and the Eurozone have unsustainable welfare states given the current tax system. What do I mean by this? We're taxing labor as much as possible, meaning probably we have reached the maximum amount of taxation we can impose on middle income and higher income earners. So we need to start taxing capital. We're seeing that in the form of labor. This is not so easy to do. If you tax capital, also you decrease real down growth. What do you see in the US, it's exactly the opposite. Right, we got Trump, people anticipate lower taxes on farms. But moreover the fact that he appointed Ellen must do a newly formed essentially agency that is the only goal of which is to decrease the size of the government. We would inspect that the goal of the Troup administration is to decrease the amount of taxes you need to essentially get in the future in order to finance the government. This is very different for what's happening in Europe. So this is going to definitely hint the growth in Europe overall. How do we fund the welfare states? What do we tax? Who do we tax? Higher taxes definitely have going to translate with so in lower growth and of course worse performance in the stock markets.

Is there any political appetite, professor, to lower some of the expenditures across Europe? You talk about the welfare state, is there any political you know, expectations that could be reduced over time?

Is there any political appetite, professor, to lower some of the expenditures across Europe? You talk about the welfare state, is there any political you know, expectations that could be reduced over time?

That is a very good question. Unfortunately, within an equilibrium ware a lot of I mean fortunately and unfortunately when you have big welfare states, you have usually a large fraction of the voting population benefiting from these big welfare states. Right, So the statistics shows that in the UK more than fifty percent of the population or net receives more benefits than pay in the form of taxes. If you have a big chunk of the population benefiting for the welfare state, it's highly unlikely for them to vote a party in power that is going to promote cutting the welfare state. So I do believe that the only way we can reduce if I mean, I'm not saying that's optimal or not, but this is from the perspective of growth and performance of European stock market. The only way to decrease the welfare state in Europe is over time to reach the limited physical sustainability, meaning you have very high level of the two GDP, you have reached the max level of taxation on labor income, right, you know, you are finding that increasing taxes is actually not increasing revenue. So once we reach that point, essentially any party in power is not going to have a choice and they'll have to do something about essentially the welfare state. But that is very costly. It's going to take time to get there, and it might mean at least a decade or even more of low broad in Europe.

That is a very good question. Unfortunately, within an equilibrium ware a lot of I mean fortunately and unfortunately when you have big welfare states, you have usually a large fraction of the voting population benefiting from these big welfare states. Right, So the statistics shows that in the UK more than fifty percent of the population or net receives more benefits than pay in the form of taxes. If you have a big chunk of the population benefiting for the welfare state, it's highly unlikely for them to vote a party in power that is going to promote cutting the welfare state. So I do believe that the only way we can reduce if I mean, I'm not saying that's optimal or not, but this is from the perspective of growth and performance of European stock market. The only way to decrease the welfare state in Europe is over time to reach the limited physical sustainability, meaning you have very high level of the two GDP, you have reached the max level of taxation on labor income, right, you know, you are finding that increasing taxes is actually not increasing revenue. So once we reach that point, essentially any party in power is not going to have a choice and they'll have to do something about essentially the welfare state. But that is very costly. It's going to take time to get there, and it might mean at least a decade or even more of low broad in Europe.

Professor, thank you so much for We appreciate that as always, Doctor Van yester Rakova. She is a professor of economics at the London Business World.

Professor, thank you so much for We appreciate that as always, Doctor Van yester Rakova. She is a professor of economics at the London Business World.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

What is going on with bitcoin approaching one hundred thousand? This might be the Matt who also forgot his token number and it's just asking for a friend here. But let's go to Mike mcgloonan senior macro strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, you know you're the only one that's explained to me what's going on here with this bitcoin.

What is going on with bitcoin approaching one hundred thousand? This might be the Matt who also forgot his token number and it's just asking for a friend here. But let's go to Mike mcgloonan senior macro strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, you know you're the only one that's explained to me what's going on here with this bitcoin.

So I guess it's just more buyers and sellers.

So I guess it's just more buyers and sellers.

Here, definitely, now, Paul, more buyers. You're looking at this month alone, ETF flows and in tf's are approaching six billion dollars. That's the biggest month ever. Total ETF's tracking bitcoin now around one hundred and twenty billion to put that in context, that's about half what do you see the total mount tracking goal, which is about two hundred and twenty billion, so it's catching up really fast. A year ago at this time, total ETF's tracking bitcoin was around ten billions, so mass of buying for good reason. We have a crypto president member Nozelt like a convert. When he was president, he thought cryptos were a scam and now he's realizing, oh boy, this basic space tracks the dollar. But all we've had some major dog double dog deer potential peak signs lately and I'm really concerned about it. I'd like to tell you about.

Here, definitely, now, Paul, more buyers. You're looking at this month alone, ETF flows and in tf's are approaching six billion dollars. That's the biggest month ever. Total ETF's tracking bitcoin now around one hundred and twenty billion to put that in context, that's about half what do you see the total mount tracking goal, which is about two hundred and twenty billion, so it's catching up really fast. A year ago at this time, total ETF's tracking bitcoin was around ten billions, so mass of buying for good reason. We have a crypto president member Nozelt like a convert. When he was president, he thought cryptos were a scam and now he's realizing, oh boy, this basic space tracks the dollar. But all we've had some major dog double dog deer potential peak signs lately and I'm really concerned about it. I'd like to tell you about.

Well talk more about that because it looks like it's up about forty percent just so far this month. So how much more gas is left in the tank here? And where you looking at for like resistance support levels?

Well talk more about that because it looks like it's up about forty percent just so far this month. So how much more gas is left in the tank here? And where you looking at for like resistance support levels?

Well, there you go, Jess, the key level everybody's looking at round number one hundred thousand dollars. I first mentioned it almost I think it was four years ago. Yeah, kind of felt the horse for a little while, but you know, just the diminishing supply, increasing demand and adoption. But there's a key thing, is a key thing. So one hundred thousand, very good resistance. It's it's traded in futures, but that's a little different. The key thing I'm watching is bitcoin versus gold. Right now, that ratio it takes basically about thirty six sounds of gold for when bitcoin the all time high is still in place. That was thirty seven in twenty twenty one. But there's one key headline that really struck me yesterday. I was really concerned about. For it's a lesson. You're learning the trading pests and it's never messed with the market gods, particularly if you have profits, you kind of kind of should be modest about this. Here's a headline in Bloomberg term a Warren Buffett destroying three billion a month of Berkshire capital by not investing in bitcoin, says Micro Strategies Michael Saylor. I saw that, and I remember Michael Sarely, here's one of the persons that really kicked over my bullishness in twenty twenty. That was in the back of the Attorney General in New York coming down and tether in twenty nineteen. It all proved how bullish bitcoin is. But now when you double dog dear markets like that, I think I gotta be careful.

Well, there you go, Jess, the key level everybody's looking at round number one hundred thousand dollars. I first mentioned it almost I think it was four years ago. Yeah, kind of felt the horse for a little while, but you know, just the diminishing supply, increasing demand and adoption. But there's a key thing, is a key thing. So one hundred thousand, very good resistance. It's it's traded in futures, but that's a little different. The key thing I'm watching is bitcoin versus gold. Right now, that ratio it takes basically about thirty six sounds of gold for when bitcoin the all time high is still in place. That was thirty seven in twenty twenty one. But there's one key headline that really struck me yesterday. I was really concerned about. For it's a lesson. You're learning the trading pests and it's never messed with the market gods, particularly if you have profits, you kind of kind of should be modest about this. Here's a headline in Bloomberg term a Warren Buffett destroying three billion a month of Berkshire capital by not investing in bitcoin, says Micro Strategies Michael Saylor. I saw that, and I remember Michael Sarely, here's one of the persons that really kicked over my bullishness in twenty twenty. That was in the back of the Attorney General in New York coming down and tether in twenty nineteen. It all proved how bullish bitcoin is. But now when you double dog dear markets like that, I think I gotta be careful.

So I don't know, michaed Man. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I kind of think of this as a commodity. How do you can you put valuations on commodities or do I know in the past you've kind of talked about it in relation to other commodities in this case gold.

So I don't know, michaed Man. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I kind of think of this as a commodity. How do you can you put valuations on commodities or do I know in the past you've kind of talked about it in relation to other commodities in this case gold.

Yeah, definitely, so I look at versus gold. So one thing I about point out today Bitcoin is actually dropping a little bit down at ninety eight just split a ninety eight hundred, and gold's up over a percent. Part of that is the re escalation of global tensions, most notably in Ukraine. But you don't it's the machine supply, increasing demand and adoption. We get that, and that's why I pointed out right away massive inflows and ETFs. But one thing about this space pall it's the most widely traded speculative digital asset on the planet ever. Twenty four to seven comes Saturday Sunday. Sometimes I can't stop watching it because it gives you indication what's going on, so everybody trades it. There's massive arm going on. A lot of people got a little bit too short micro strategy and got stopped out and now we have some bigger people doing that, so that got too expensive. But number one thing I think it's technicals and animal spirits.

Yeah, definitely, so I look at versus gold. So one thing I about point out today Bitcoin is actually dropping a little bit down at ninety eight just split a ninety eight hundred, and gold's up over a percent. Part of that is the re escalation of global tensions, most notably in Ukraine. But you don't it's the machine supply, increasing demand and adoption. We get that, and that's why I pointed out right away massive inflows and ETFs. But one thing about this space pall it's the most widely traded speculative digital asset on the planet ever. Twenty four to seven comes Saturday Sunday. Sometimes I can't stop watching it because it gives you indication what's going on, so everybody trades it. There's massive arm going on. A lot of people got a little bit too short micro strategy and got stopped out and now we have some bigger people doing that, so that got too expensive. But number one thing I think it's technicals and animal spirits.

Right now, talk to us about doctor copper because we know how closely it ties into the economy, not just our economy, but the global economy as well.

Right now, talk to us about doctor copper because we know how closely it ties into the economy, not just our economy, but the global economy as well.

What do you seeing there, well, Jess, I appreciate you going there, because to me, that's the number one commodity that has to go up to prove we don't have deflationary dominos kicking over in the whole world. So doctor copper is broken below Keith support around nine thousand dollars a ton. In terms of dollars, it's pushing in that key support around four dollars a pound. It made a new high this year around five to twenty, but it was on the back of massive speculative accesses in in futures. Futures are just a lot of buyers who just got way over, way long. And the key way I like to point out with copper is on the month now coppers down about five percent and the Hang Singing Index is down about five percent. You see the connection there. It's all about China. And now I look at that ten you note yield in China two point zero eight on a CGB versus the US it's four point four percent. That's a significant sign of deflation, lack of demand, full forces in China, complete dependence on stimulus. And you know we've seen this before in Japan. Japan's GDP at four trillion dollars is the same it was thirty years ago. China is going that way. That's bad for copper. And the key thing I like to point about coppers if it breaks down, it adds legitimacy to declining crude oil, the crying iron ore, declining grains, and it means the commodity complex is clearly showing global deflationary recessionary trends. And gold's only when that's really still going up.

What do you seeing there, well, Jess, I appreciate you going there, because to me, that's the number one commodity that has to go up to prove we don't have deflationary dominos kicking over in the whole world. So doctor copper is broken below Keith support around nine thousand dollars a ton. In terms of dollars, it's pushing in that key support around four dollars a pound. It made a new high this year around five to twenty, but it was on the back of massive speculative accesses in in futures. Futures are just a lot of buyers who just got way over, way long. And the key way I like to point out with copper is on the month now coppers down about five percent and the Hang Singing Index is down about five percent. You see the connection there. It's all about China. And now I look at that ten you note yield in China two point zero eight on a CGB versus the US it's four point four percent. That's a significant sign of deflation, lack of demand, full forces in China, complete dependence on stimulus. And you know we've seen this before in Japan. Japan's GDP at four trillion dollars is the same it was thirty years ago. China is going that way. That's bad for copper. And the key thing I like to point about coppers if it breaks down, it adds legitimacy to declining crude oil, the crying iron ore, declining grains, and it means the commodity complex is clearly showing global deflationary recessionary trends. And gold's only when that's really still going up.

What's the call and the energy front for you, Mike these days?

What's the call and the energy front for you, Mike these days?

It We'll start with what manison Americans three dollars a gallon as the average price of gasoline by this time next year, Paul, if you want someone to blame, I think it's going to be two. Average value price of eSeL inness country is just about three fifty. I think next is going to be two fifty. It's not profound to say that because the last twenty years we've got to those levels. And the big significance is we are a net massive increase in everyday exporter of liquid fuels crude oil, unleaded gas, diesel maybe less, and we have declining diminishing. We have the demand for diesel and US is declining. It's declining in China, in Europe and India, and we increasing supply. So we just get a little bit of a backup in say the stock market. It pushes those prices down. So those are I had in my headline recently. Those are potentially trump deflationary forces. And we do have this new leadership that's more drill. It will bring on the supply.

It We'll start with what manison Americans three dollars a gallon as the average price of gasoline by this time next year, Paul, if you want someone to blame, I think it's going to be two. Average value price of eSeL inness country is just about three fifty. I think next is going to be two fifty. It's not profound to say that because the last twenty years we've got to those levels. And the big significance is we are a net massive increase in everyday exporter of liquid fuels crude oil, unleaded gas, diesel maybe less, and we have declining diminishing. We have the demand for diesel and US is declining. It's declining in China, in Europe and India, and we increasing supply. So we just get a little bit of a backup in say the stock market. It pushes those prices down. So those are I had in my headline recently. Those are potentially trump deflationary forces. And we do have this new leadership that's more drill. It will bring on the supply.

What about natural gas, Yes.

What about natural gas, Yes.

So this is peak season for natural gas. It's usually right before you get to January. Three bucks natural gas is near the peak. I think four hours is pretty high. The cost of production this country is two dours. That's been kind of the mean Menian mode. I think it gets back there once we get through January, and we have the normal trend in global warming happens in winter too, so basically right now you have to price in a bit of risk of a colder than normal winter. But what's spend. The trend warmer than normal winters, particularly in Europe, So that's the key things. The bottom line for natural gas is the will's becoming increasingly dependent on LNG exports from the US, but still only about twenty percent of our production. And we still have a pretty good excessive amount of liquid fuels natural gas, crude oil, ethanol, biofuels in this country dependent on exports, and if we ramp up a trade war, that means we're going to have kind of supply bottlenecked in US, which means lower prices.

So this is peak season for natural gas. It's usually right before you get to January. Three bucks natural gas is near the peak. I think four hours is pretty high. The cost of production this country is two dours. That's been kind of the mean Menian mode. I think it gets back there once we get through January, and we have the normal trend in global warming happens in winter too, so basically right now you have to price in a bit of risk of a colder than normal winter. But what's spend. The trend warmer than normal winters, particularly in Europe, So that's the key things. The bottom line for natural gas is the will's becoming increasingly dependent on LNG exports from the US, but still only about twenty percent of our production. And we still have a pretty good excessive amount of liquid fuels natural gas, crude oil, ethanol, biofuels in this country dependent on exports, and if we ramp up a trade war, that means we're going to have kind of supply bottlenecked in US, which means lower prices.

Mike mclohan, thanks so much for We appreciate it as always.

Mike mclohan, thanks so much for We appreciate it as always.

Mike McLoone, senior macro strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

Mike McLoone, senior macro strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Do your daily look at the front pictures from around the world A least going to tell you what do you have for us in the newspapers?

Do your daily look at the front pictures from around the world A least going to tell you what do you have for us in the newspapers?

All right, so we've been talking a lot about retail earnings. Right, you've heard Walmart, Target like Crust, like all these different companies. But now with the election behind, so this is interesting. From the Washington Post, they say that with the election, mining consumers are ready to spend because they say, normally what happens is that before election day they're a bit hesitant, so they hold off. But they say, now that that's over, it's going to open up more retailers, more shoppers are ready to do different things, but they're shopping differently. Okay, one thing they're going to do, they're going to look for deal. They're going to be selective on the splurges, and they're going to hit up discount and off price realtors like Walmart.

All right, so we've been talking a lot about retail earnings. Right, you've heard Walmart, Target like Crust, like all these different companies. But now with the election behind, so this is interesting. From the Washington Post, they say that with the election, mining consumers are ready to spend because they say, normally what happens is that before election day they're a bit hesitant, so they hold off. But they say, now that that's over, it's going to open up more retailers, more shoppers are ready to do different things, but they're shopping differently. Okay, one thing they're going to do, they're going to look for deal. They're going to be selective on the splurges, and they're going to hit up discount and off price realtors like Walmart.

Gap.

Gap.

They said they're drawing in like those six figure retailers, and next.

They said they're drawing in like those six figure retailers, and next.

Knew it sounds like yes, So I haven't heard them call that out before, you know, and I've heard it from.

Knew it sounds like yes, So I haven't heard them call that out before, you know, and I've heard it from.

A couple of them. Correct, correct from Walmart.

A couple of them. Correct, correct from Walmart.

Yeah, and Targets saying like a lot of them, a lot of their consumers are shifting to like the cheaper brands. So you saw that Ross Stars, I mean they they reported well too, So that's like the discount retailers right.

Yeah, and Targets saying like a lot of them, a lot of their consumers are shifting to like the cheaper brands. So you saw that Ross Stars, I mean they they reported well too, So that's like the discount retailers right.

Lisa and I were talking about earlier. We don't do the Lulu limit. We find other things that gap.

Lisa and I were talking about earlier. We don't do the Lulu limit. We find other things that gap.

Why could the store brands at the supermarket more than they ever have? True, I do that too, but some things I'll go with the brand. But that's what it is.

Why could the store brands at the supermarket more than they ever have? True, I do that too, but some things I'll go with the brand. But that's what it is.

Yes, cheap, yes, okay, most interestingly so yeah, so we're spending, but we're just spending different.

Yes, cheap, yes, okay, most interestingly so yeah, so we're spending, but we're just spending different.

From I don't think my spending patterns have changed. But since the election, it just feels like a weight is lifted. You can just move forward, look forward everything else. It seems better just because the whole thing's behind you.

From I don't think my spending patterns have changed. But since the election, it just feels like a weight is lifted. You can just move forward, look forward everything else. It seems better just because the whole thing's behind you.

Now we can to look forward, and now I know what to look forward to. Exactly what was? Okay?

Now we can to look forward, and now I know what to look forward to. Exactly what was? Okay?

So this one was a right up your ally powamount executives. It turns out they're getting a nice bonus after the deal with Skydance closes. So this is according to a filing. Yeah, they're promising to pay its heads of government relations human resources a one million dollar retention bonus that's tied to the merger. But I guess this is the thing, Like retention bonuses are common.

So this one was a right up your ally powamount executives. It turns out they're getting a nice bonus after the deal with Skydance closes. So this is according to a filing. Yeah, they're promising to pay its heads of government relations human resources a one million dollar retention bonus that's tied to the merger. But I guess this is the thing, Like retention bonuses are common.

I mean when they're well, having worked on Wall Street, my whole career. When and I've been through a bunch of mergers. If when we're when company is buying company, be what you're really buying are the people. I mean, you go for an investment, you're buying the people. So you want to people to stay. So one of the ways you get them to stay is you pay them a retention bonus. Hey, here's X amount of dollars to be paid over the next three years.

I mean when they're well, having worked on Wall Street, my whole career. When and I've been through a bunch of mergers. If when we're when company is buying company, be what you're really buying are the people. I mean, you go for an investment, you're buying the people. So you want to people to stay. So one of the ways you get them to stay is you pay them a retention bonus. Hey, here's X amount of dollars to be paid over the next three years.

If you stay, you'll get this money. Inact that kind of thing.

If you stay, you'll get this money. Inact that kind of thing.

We did not do that when Credit Swiss spought don some left, connentried genret and literally the next day after the close, everybody walked out the door.

We did not do that when Credit Swiss spought don some left, connentried genret and literally the next day after the close, everybody walked out the door.

It was true.

It was true.

So they don't work. They work.

So they don't work. They work.

I don't know about before the entertainment business. But but this Paramount stock it's at nine dollars, is still down twenty five percent.

I don't know about before the entertainment business. But but this Paramount stock it's at nine dollars, is still down twenty five percent.

Year to date. It that's a tough that's a tough story there.

Year to date. It that's a tough that's a tough story there.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And the reason why people are upsets because they just announced plans to cut two thousand jobs. Y So at the same time that this comes out, so ESPN is going into the late night chalk show scene. Former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Jason Kelcey is going to be the host of it. Okay, so we announce it on Jimmy Cambole Live. It's going to be called they call it Late Night with Jason Kelce Original. So they're gonna tape on five straight Friday nights starting January third, and that actually falls in line with the NFL's regular season the playoffs, so you kind of see the tie in there. But I mean he's a personality.

And the reason why people are upsets because they just announced plans to cut two thousand jobs. Y So at the same time that this comes out, so ESPN is going into the late night chalk show scene. Former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Jason Kelcey is going to be the host of it. Okay, so we announce it on Jimmy Cambole Live. It's going to be called they call it Late Night with Jason Kelce Original. So they're gonna tape on five straight Friday nights starting January third, and that actually falls in line with the NFL's regular season the playoffs, so you kind of see the tie in there. But I mean he's a personality.

Yeah, I don't know, you know, it's great post career, he's doing well.

Yeah, I don't know, you know, it's great post career, he's doing well.

And it's gonna tape in front of a live audience in Philadelphia, which is there you go, Philadelphia Eagles, but they have this Philadelphia based band, Snack Time. They're going to have the music. So it's a limited run, but he's doing it. He's going to the late night talk show.

And it's gonna tape in front of a live audience in Philadelphia, which is there you go, Philadelphia Eagles, but they have this Philadelphia based band, Snack Time. They're going to have the music. So it's a limited run, but he's doing it. He's going to the late night talk show.

I mean the late night business.

I mean the late night business.

And that's always been a pretty profitable business for these companies because they get great guests, the ratings are okay, and advertisers kind of like that time.

And that's always been a pretty profitable business for these companies because they get great guests, the ratings are okay, and advertisers kind of like that time.

Period. So I don't know, it's always been pretty good. But I mean it's just a and he's got certainly name.

Period. So I don't know, it's always been pretty good. But I mean it's just a and he's got certainly name.

Recognition does and he has this I mean it's in the first year, but he has a multi year agreement with the ESPN.

Recognition does and he has this I mean it's in the first year, but he has a multi year agreement with the ESPN.

So this is the brother of the Yes correct, correct, Yes, I knew that was going to come up.

So this is the brother of the Yes correct, correct, Yes, I knew that was going to come up.

Correct, keep track. But he's of Travis Ks.

Correct, keep track. But he's of Travis Ks.

He's the one who's retired, yes, very yes from the Eagles. Yes all right and this weekend, Yes, the big Wicked movie coming out. So this one in the Wall Street Journal say fans are going crazy, like they're renting out theaters. One woman, she has like one hundred guests coming. But they posed rules. There's certain rules.

He's the one who's retired, yes, very yes from the Eagles. Yes all right and this weekend, Yes, the big Wicked movie coming out. So this one in the Wall Street Journal say fans are going crazy, like they're renting out theaters. One woman, she has like one hundred guests coming. But they posed rules. There's certain rules.

Movie theater etiquette.

Movie theater etiquette.

Okay, so costumes are a must, Loud chewing is unacceptle, bathroom breaks are no. No, you can't leave your seat, and no singing singing, and it's a singing movie, I know. But there's other movie theaters that are that are doing something different, like they have movie theater parties, movie theater parties for Wicked where you can sing, they give out goodies. And then wait until Christmas, guys, because there are sing along screenings of Wicked. A lot more than a thousand theaters are going to be doing this, so then there you are allowed to sing.

Okay, so costumes are a must, Loud chewing is unacceptle, bathroom breaks are no. No, you can't leave your seat, and no singing singing, and it's a singing movie, I know. But there's other movie theaters that are that are doing something different, like they have movie theater parties, movie theater parties for Wicked where you can sing, they give out goodies. And then wait until Christmas, guys, because there are sing along screenings of Wicked. A lot more than a thousand theaters are going to be doing this, so then there you are allowed to sing.

So Paul, are you gonna be?

So Paul, are you gonna be?

I have my tickets yet for for for Wicked, but you do Lisa, right.

I have my tickets yet for for for Wicked, but you do Lisa, right.

So my daughter has the Wicked one of her friends, and then my husband and I.

So my daughter has the Wicked one of her friends, and then my husband and I.

Are doing the Gladiator.

Are doing the Gladiator.

Okay, and my son are doing the glass.

Okay, and my son are doing the glass.

I mean this Wicked thing and even Gladiator. But I mean this is got some real serious buzz, doesn't it.

I mean this Wicked thing and even Gladiator. But I mean this is got some real serious buzz, doesn't it.

Yes, yes, no, it definitely does. And because it's it's two different audiences. So they're saying, this is what you know, It's like the Barberenheimer is about to bring up.

Yes, yes, no, it definitely does. And because it's it's two different audiences. So they're saying, this is what you know, It's like the Barberenheimer is about to bring up.

It's like that again. You get Lizelle.

It's like that again. You get Lizelle.

A Legends Thanksgivings traditionally coming out on holiday weekends.

A Legends Thanksgivings traditionally coming out on holiday weekends.

Instead of traveling.

Instead of traveling.

Let's go to the movies, guys.

Let's go to the movies, guys.

That could I mean, I'll tell you the movie that the Hollywood business, the movie business could use a shot of, you know, good News and.

That could I mean, I'll tell you the movie that the Hollywood business, the movie business could use a shot of, you know, good News and.

Goody and Bloomberg intelligence. They're saying that the Boss is expected to take in two hundred and thirty million dollars with both.

Goody and Bloomberg intelligence. They're saying that the Boss is expected to take in two hundred and thirty million dollars with both.

Of those movies.

Of those movies.

So that's that's pretty I mean, it's no Barbenheimer.

So that's that's pretty I mean, it's no Barbenheimer.

But it's still that's Good'll take hollid numbers that they need.

But it's still that's Good'll take hollid numbers that they need.

All right, that's the newspapers with listeyo, thank you so much, We appreciate that This.

All right, that's the newspapers with listeyo, thank you so much, We appreciate that This.

Is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

Is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal