I am going to dispense with introductions.

I am going to dispense with introductions.

You know who these people are and it's just we get right to it. Other than to say that that certainly and I can stay due to I'm reading this.

You know who these people are and it's just we get right to it. Other than to say that that certainly and I can stay due to I'm reading this.

It's like Jay Powell at a FED meeting. I'm reading the answer.

It's like Jay Powell at a FED meeting. I'm reading the answer.

Due to unexpected scheduling change, we have a change in our lineup today.

Due to unexpected scheduling change, we have a change in our lineup today.

Mini, you have heard of this.

Mini, you have heard of this.

The IMF Managing Director, doctor Gurgheva and the Minister of Morocco now you've Feda are unable to join us today. The IMF will be more than ably represented by the first Deputy Managing Director. We are thrilled that doctor Gopeneth could be here. I'm sure you'll do better with Martin Wolf yesterday. But thank you so much for showing up. Let's get to it in you should you should be in the green room and back where these four worthies are telling me what to do.

The IMF Managing Director, doctor Gurgheva and the Minister of Morocco now you've Feda are unable to join us today. The IMF will be more than ably represented by the first Deputy Managing Director. We are thrilled that doctor Gopeneth could be here. I'm sure you'll do better with Martin Wolf yesterday. But thank you so much for showing up. Let's get to it in you should you should be in the green room and back where these four worthies are telling me what to do.

So we're going to start with that.

So we're going to start with that.

And doctor Gopaneth said, we have to look at the bluebook.

And doctor Gopaneth said, we have to look at the bluebook.

We have to look at.

We have to look at.

The nuances of their new economic outlook in these times of fragmentation. What is the view that the IMF has right now, Doctor Gopiness.

The nuances of their new economic outlook in these times of fragmentation. What is the view that the IMF has right now, Doctor Gopiness.

Thank you Tom I'm very happy to step in for Christlina and to join these impressive women on this panel.

Thank you Tom I'm very happy to step in for Christlina and to join these impressive women on this panel.

In terms of the outlook, we see a mixed picture.

In terms of the outlook, we see a mixed picture.

So on the one hand, you have resilience, which is you have an environment where many countries are close to full employment, tight labor markets. You're seeing inflation coming down. A year ago it was way too high and now it certainly has come down a long way since then. And we've also seen that the core of the financial system has held together well. Now, if you asked us a year ago whether this would be possible when interest rates go up by so much in the globe economy, I think many people would say, well, that would be really hard to accomplish. So I think we should first acknowledge that resilience. But that said, we are looking at a global outlook that has weak growth. Now growth is weak now because of all the tightening and policies, but what is troubling is the weak growth looking into the medium term. So we have growth projected around three percent into the next several years, well below the average that we've had over the last couple of decades, which was around three point eight percent. Second, inflation has come down but the job is not done yet. You still have sticky services inflation, core inflation. It is going to be a bumpy road and that's going to be a challenge for policymakers. And importantly, we live in a world of a large number of shocks geo political events, the conflict we're seeing in the Middle East, the consequences.

So on the one hand, you have resilience, which is you have an environment where many countries are close to full employment, tight labor markets. You're seeing inflation coming down. A year ago it was way too high and now it certainly has come down a long way since then. And we've also seen that the core of the financial system has held together well. Now, if you asked us a year ago whether this would be possible when interest rates go up by so much in the globe economy, I think many people would say, well, that would be really hard to accomplish. So I think we should first acknowledge that resilience. But that said, we are looking at a global outlook that has weak growth. Now growth is weak now because of all the tightening and policies, but what is troubling is the weak growth looking into the medium term. So we have growth projected around three percent into the next several years, well below the average that we've had over the last couple of decades, which was around three point eight percent. Second, inflation has come down but the job is not done yet. You still have sticky services inflation, core inflation. It is going to be a bumpy road and that's going to be a challenge for policymakers. And importantly, we live in a world of a large number of shocks geo political events, the conflict we're seeing in the Middle East, the consequences.

That could have for energy praises.

That could have for energy praises.

Death levels are at record high levels at the same time that we are in this higher for longer infistrate environment. So there is a lot for us to watch carefully and that could go wrong, and that's very important to keep in mind.

Death levels are at record high levels at the same time that we are in this higher for longer infistrate environment. So there is a lot for us to watch carefully and that could go wrong, and that's very important to keep in mind.

Thank you, Director General.

Thank you, Director General.

Let me go to you, as I do on everything I do. I'm going to give you some reading points and also essays and articles to read. Of course, doctor Garjeva has a wonderful essay and Fragmentation. We'll get to that in a moment. In foreign affairs, but equally important and more strident and more assertive is the Director General's essay.

Let me go to you, as I do on everything I do. I'm going to give you some reading points and also essays and articles to read. Of course, doctor Garjeva has a wonderful essay and Fragmentation. We'll get to that in a moment. In foreign affairs, but equally important and more strident and more assertive is the Director General's essay.

On World Trade.

On World Trade.

It hearkens back for some of you that know Catherine Mann of the Bank of England. It parkens back to Catherine Mann before City Group at Brandeis And I say, Director general, and I know you want to talk here about the current trade focus, but the heart of your work is a route to interdependence, not over dependence, and that exactly gets to the emotion we're at right now, isn't it.

It hearkens back for some of you that know Catherine Mann of the Bank of England. It parkens back to Catherine Mann before City Group at Brandeis And I say, Director general, and I know you want to talk here about the current trade focus, but the heart of your work is a route to interdependence, not over dependence, and that exactly gets to the emotion we're at right now, isn't it.

Yes, thank you, Tom.

Yes, thank you, Tom.

I think what we're trying to say is that during the past few crisis we've seen and we're still in, we've seen the vulnerability of supply chains, and that vulnerability has led to some conclusions that we think we need to think through again. Some people have concluded that supply chains are so vulnerable we need to reshow everything to ourselves, or we need to produce with friends or those who have similar politics as we do, and yes, some of that will happen.

I think what we're trying to say is that during the past few crisis we've seen and we're still in, we've seen the vulnerability of supply chains, and that vulnerability has led to some conclusions that we think we need to think through again. Some people have concluded that supply chains are so vulnerable we need to reshow everything to ourselves, or we need to produce with friends or those who have similar politics as we do, and yes, some of that will happen.

They've concluded that trade is the problem.

They've concluded that trade is the problem.

But what we want to say at the ability our analysis has shown that the vulnerabilities come from over concentration in some supply chains and over concentration of production in some geographies.

But what we want to say at the ability our analysis has shown that the vulnerabilities come from over concentration in some supply chains and over concentration of production in some geographies.

If that is.

If that is.

The root of the problem, then to build resilience, we need, yes, to deconcentrate and diversify those supply chains, and we are arguing that a good way to do it is not just to do it with your friends or those who are like you, But to spread your wings, because we also have something called climate change, and if you close that to many things, you don't know what phenomenon is going to happen. So why don't we look at developing economies that have the right business environment and I insist on that, and see if we can diversify some supply chains there so we build resilience. Some of these have been left out during the first wave of globalization, so we can build resilience whilst being inclusive. And we're calling that reglobalization. So that's the thesis we put forward, so we can kill two beds with one stone.

The root of the problem, then to build resilience, we need, yes, to deconcentrate and diversify those supply chains, and we are arguing that a good way to do it is not just to do it with your friends or those who are like you, But to spread your wings, because we also have something called climate change, and if you close that to many things, you don't know what phenomenon is going to happen. So why don't we look at developing economies that have the right business environment and I insist on that, and see if we can diversify some supply chains there so we build resilience. Some of these have been left out during the first wave of globalization, so we can build resilience whilst being inclusive. And we're calling that reglobalization. So that's the thesis we put forward, so we can kill two beds with one stone.

Thank you, President Regard.

Thank you, President Regard.

The last time I saw you, everybody wanted to ask me about the next rate increase.

The last time I saw you, everybody wanted to ask me about the next rate increase.

We're not going to do that today either.

We're not going to do that today either.

We were in Jackson Hole and you were looking at a reaffirmation of how we do research, how we look forward, how we prosecute economics across the absolute original experiment that is Europe, and it is a very unique ECB, particularly compared to so many other central banks. Give us the state of play you see now of a Europe yes years now into a war, but far more the back and forth, and I do want you to touch We'll talk about this later. I want you to touch a migration here, but could please give us the growth outlook that you see out five years and the prescription Europe needs to do.

We were in Jackson Hole and you were looking at a reaffirmation of how we do research, how we look forward, how we prosecute economics across the absolute original experiment that is Europe, and it is a very unique ECB, particularly compared to so many other central banks. Give us the state of play you see now of a Europe yes years now into a war, but far more the back and forth, and I do want you to touch We'll talk about this later. I want you to touch a migration here, but could please give us the growth outlook that you see out five years and the prescription Europe needs to do.

Now, well, thank you so much, Tom, and let me first of all regret but fully understand and appreciate why Crystallini is not with us. Invited by his majesty to attend the opening of the Parliament of Moroco, I think is a great honor and should just reverberate on the quality of the institution and if I may say, it's depth and the depth of its bench, because it gives us the pleasure of not having another man, excuse me, but having another woman.

Now, well, thank you so much, Tom, and let me first of all regret but fully understand and appreciate why Crystallini is not with us. Invited by his majesty to attend the opening of the Parliament of Moroco, I think is a great honor and should just reverberate on the quality of the institution and if I may say, it's depth and the depth of its bench, because it gives us the pleasure of not having another man, excuse me, but having another woman.

So that's a real test of the.

So that's a real test of the.

Explorat You're okay, all right, back back to your question, because that's what you really want to hear from me. I would like to pick up on where Guitar was and to tell you how we are seeing the situation now. And I put really the emphasis of now after the three mega crisis that we have gone through in the last three years and the most recent developments that we haven't seen the end of and which will have in addition to the human toll and the horrible developments that will take place that will have economic consequences. And it feels very much like and I want to point to my notes because I listed them, and I want to mention them for you what I would call.

Explorat You're okay, all right, back back to your question, because that's what you really want to hear from me. I would like to pick up on where Guitar was and to tell you how we are seeing the situation now. And I put really the emphasis of now after the three mega crisis that we have gone through in the last three years and the most recent developments that we haven't seen the end of and which will have in addition to the human toll and the horrible developments that will take place that will have economic consequences. And it feels very much like and I want to point to my notes because I listed them, and I want to mention them for you what I would call.

The multiple moving parts.

The multiple moving parts.

And we're just not yet to sure where the chips will come down, and I would list in my moving parts the unwinding of large previous shocks. And Gussie has alluded to some there are multiple previous shocks, from the disruption to the supply bottomnecks, to the immense volatility of energy prices, to the pentom demand against the restricted supply, and all of that happening in a very abrupt.

And we're just not yet to sure where the chips will come down, and I would list in my moving parts the unwinding of large previous shocks. And Gussie has alluded to some there are multiple previous shocks, from the disruption to the supply bottomnecks, to the immense volatility of energy prices, to the pentom demand against the restricted supply, and all of that happening in a very abrupt.

And sudden way. So that's number one.

And sudden way. So that's number one.

Number two something which is affected by lag time or time lag, whatever you call it. And I'm not here talking about monetary policy. I'm here talking about the adjustment of wages to inflation. And there is clearly in everybody, in all central bankers mind, the fear of the second round effect. Is it happening, is it likely to happen?

Number two something which is affected by lag time or time lag, whatever you call it. And I'm not here talking about monetary policy. I'm here talking about the adjustment of wages to inflation. And there is clearly in everybody, in all central bankers mind, the fear of the second round effect. Is it happening, is it likely to happen?

Are we at the peak?

Are we at the peak?

And are we now going to see declining wage increases returning to real wage allah pre COVID question mark.

And are we now going to see declining wage increases returning to real wage allah pre COVID question mark.

That's another moving part.

That's another moving part.

The third moving part is what I would.

The third moving part is what I would.

Call the strong.

Call the strong.

You know, we did four hundred and fifty basis points hike in fifteen months, which is a huge, unprecedented increase, and this is what I call the strong, but lagged policies. We haven't seen the end of it yet. We seeing tightening of financing conditions like it has never happened before. We know that there is some more in the pipeline and how it is to impact our economies, how it will have deflationary impact. This inflationary impact in our region.

You know, we did four hundred and fifty basis points hike in fifteen months, which is a huge, unprecedented increase, and this is what I call the strong, but lagged policies. We haven't seen the end of it yet. We seeing tightening of financing conditions like it has never happened before. We know that there is some more in the pipeline and how it is to impact our economies, how it will have deflationary impact. This inflationary impact in our region.

Is also to be seen. And the final one, you know, sort of really.

Is also to be seen. And the final one, you know, sort of really.

Ball in the air, is the structural reforms that will come out of all that. There is what Engozi you called the did you say reglobalization. I would call it probably consistent with a good fight against climate change. The near shoring, not reshuring, not French shoring, but reducing the distance, having a better handle and control over your supply chain and the logistic and transportation.

Ball in the air, is the structural reforms that will come out of all that. There is what Engozi you called the did you say reglobalization. I would call it probably consistent with a good fight against climate change. The near shoring, not reshuring, not French shoring, but reducing the distance, having a better handle and control over your supply chain and the logistic and transportation.

That's just one example. I think the labor market is also a case in point.

That's just one example. I think the labor market is also a case in point.

Where we will be seeing structural reforms and with the people who are joining the market now have different aspirations, different expectations in than what we had. But you know, let's learn the two grandmothers at the table here, all of you, the that generation will not want the same thing.

Where we will be seeing structural reforms and with the people who are joining the market now have different aspirations, different expectations in than what we had. But you know, let's learn the two grandmothers at the table here, all of you, the that generation will not want the same thing.

So those are all these balls in the air.

So those are all these balls in the air.

We're not exactly sure how they're going to land, but certainly we all have to focus on our policies as far as the European Central Bank is concerned. As I've said before, our aim, our mission is to return inflation to two percent medium term, and we will and it is happening as we speak, and we will hang on to that be steady long enough and ready to do more if necessary.

We're not exactly sure how they're going to land, but certainly we all have to focus on our policies as far as the European Central Bank is concerned. As I've said before, our aim, our mission is to return inflation to two percent medium term, and we will and it is happening as we speak, and we will hang on to that be steady long enough and ready to do more if necessary.

And this sets up Joyce Chain perfectly, President Legard, and I say this with great respect for Bill Rhodes for years at City Group. Do you ever feel like your central banker to the world. I'm talking to you, Christine, oh tonight are you Do you ever feel like your central banker to the world central bank you bring it over from the ECB over to the major central banks, feeling like they have a profound effect on em and the rest. You talk about the monetary policy movements that we saw.

And this sets up Joyce Chain perfectly, President Legard, and I say this with great respect for Bill Rhodes for years at City Group. Do you ever feel like your central banker to the world. I'm talking to you, Christine, oh tonight are you Do you ever feel like your central banker to the world central bank you bring it over from the ECB over to the major central banks, feeling like they have a profound effect on em and the rest. You talk about the monetary policy movements that we saw.

Look, I think central bank governor's presidents, former community, they're all driven by the same purpose. They have different mandates eventually, but I think their mission is to procure or restore price stability so that economic actors of all sorts, consumers, investors, savers, spenders can actually anticipate what is likely to happen. And we have to do that in intelligent coordination with the fiscal authorities.

Look, I think central bank governor's presidents, former community, they're all driven by the same purpose. They have different mandates eventually, but I think their mission is to procure or restore price stability so that economic actors of all sorts, consumers, investors, savers, spenders can actually anticipate what is likely to happen. And we have to do that in intelligent coordination with the fiscal authorities.

Right, Joyce, I'm so happy you're here. You gave us a bond market that we don't want to talk about. We're doing a debate on the global economy. You have a framework with Bob Michael at JP Morgan of a two and a half inflation adjusted ten year rate of a five and a half ten year yield out at some point. For those of you not versed in the world of Joyce chain, that's stressful. And you and I talked about Barry king Greens paper at Jackson Hall, which is a debt walk through an em and I'd like you to fold the constraints we have on getting to a more optimistic and better growth over to the challenges that we see with emerging market debt.

Right, Joyce, I'm so happy you're here. You gave us a bond market that we don't want to talk about. We're doing a debate on the global economy. You have a framework with Bob Michael at JP Morgan of a two and a half inflation adjusted ten year rate of a five and a half ten year yield out at some point. For those of you not versed in the world of Joyce chain, that's stressful. And you and I talked about Barry king Greens paper at Jackson Hall, which is a debt walk through an em and I'd like you to fold the constraints we have on getting to a more optimistic and better growth over to the challenges that we see with emerging market debt.

No, thanks so much, and it's just wonderful to be here with you, Tom, and with Gita, Christine Man, with ne Gozi. Well, we do think that the Great Moderation is over. We had put out a target two and a half percent really yields. We thought it could be the sort of a medium term target, take five years.

No, thanks so much, and it's just wonderful to be here with you, Tom, and with Gita, Christine Man, with ne Gozi. Well, we do think that the Great Moderation is over. We had put out a target two and a half percent really yields. We thought it could be the sort of a medium term target, take five years.

Oh, her mic is off. Okay, well we expected this. There you go.

Oh, her mic is off. Okay, well we expected this. There you go.

Okay, I'm sorry.

Okay, I'm sorry.

Is that better everyone?

Is that better everyone?

It's better?

It's better?

Okay, great?

Okay, great?

No.

No.

So I think part of the problem, Tom is, you know, the bond vigilantes are back, the Great Moderation is over, and the focuses come back to the fiscal and debt sustainability, and actually more talk about that at some of the market meetings than even about the soft landing and no recession scenario. And so I think the cost, you know, there's the resilience, but then there's the cost of that resilience that's really coming into market focus right now. So when we've put out you know, real yields, we think there'll be two and a half percent. We were at negative one percent and people ask me, how long do you think it could take to get there? I said, well, maybe five years, but you know, we're practically there already. And I think you know, this is kind of coming at an inconvenient time. You have the thirty percent increase in treasury supply on long duration at a point where you know, the Fed's not buying, the banks are not gaining the pause. That's the institutional demand isn't there. And that has very clearly and put the focus back on the debt dynamics, the debt sustainability, and the fiscal debt and the cost of servicing the debt given the size of the fiscal deficit, and the focus isn't on the emerging market so much as it is on the advanced economies, particularly on the United States right now. I mean, in this period, I think em has been very resilient, but I mean, but we've also seen limping along, you know, fracture my foot, so relate to that the limping along as well, where the medium term growth that you know does not look as optimistic, but we are. You know, once again you're getting a focus back on whether the financing is going to be more problematic. And it's hard to talk about emerging markets in one block because there's clearly the frontier market countries and then there is the you know, em X, China, the middle income countries which have done a very good job. They started hiking a lot earlier. We think, you know, there's probably one hundred and fifty basis points of easing they can do between now and the end of next year. But you do have the debt dynamics that are very much back in focus and the debt service. But that's not just an emerging markets problem. It's an advanced economy of problem as well.

So I think part of the problem, Tom is, you know, the bond vigilantes are back, the Great Moderation is over, and the focuses come back to the fiscal and debt sustainability, and actually more talk about that at some of the market meetings than even about the soft landing and no recession scenario. And so I think the cost, you know, there's the resilience, but then there's the cost of that resilience that's really coming into market focus right now. So when we've put out you know, real yields, we think there'll be two and a half percent. We were at negative one percent and people ask me, how long do you think it could take to get there? I said, well, maybe five years, but you know, we're practically there already. And I think you know, this is kind of coming at an inconvenient time. You have the thirty percent increase in treasury supply on long duration at a point where you know, the Fed's not buying, the banks are not gaining the pause. That's the institutional demand isn't there. And that has very clearly and put the focus back on the debt dynamics, the debt sustainability, and the fiscal debt and the cost of servicing the debt given the size of the fiscal deficit, and the focus isn't on the emerging market so much as it is on the advanced economies, particularly on the United States right now. I mean, in this period, I think em has been very resilient, but I mean, but we've also seen limping along, you know, fracture my foot, so relate to that the limping along as well, where the medium term growth that you know does not look as optimistic, but we are. You know, once again you're getting a focus back on whether the financing is going to be more problematic. And it's hard to talk about emerging markets in one block because there's clearly the frontier market countries and then there is the you know, em X, China, the middle income countries which have done a very good job. They started hiking a lot earlier. We think, you know, there's probably one hundred and fifty basis points of easing they can do between now and the end of next year. But you do have the debt dynamics that are very much back in focus and the debt service. But that's not just an emerging markets problem. It's an advanced economy of problem as well.

It's interesting. I want you to fold this in and get it well knows.

It's interesting. I want you to fold this in and get it well knows.

There's a blue book, the green book, the bunker, and I wish you'd print him still instead of just digital because I actually love the appendices and all this the great work of your team at the IMF.

There's a blue book, the green book, the bunker, and I wish you'd print him still instead of just digital because I actually love the appendices and all this the great work of your team at the IMF.

But I'm going to go all to bs Adrian on you right now.

But I'm going to go all to bs Adrian on you right now.

I listen to what Joyce is saying, and I listen to what I see on the Bloomberg screen, and the bond market is speaking about this growth constraint we have on a hyacan basis, how do we clear this system to move on to a better place.

I listen to what Joyce is saying, and I listen to what I see on the Bloomberg screen, and the bond market is speaking about this growth constraint we have on a hyacan basis, how do we clear this system to move on to a better place.

Tom.

Tom.

The bond market is reflecting many things. For one, it's come to accept the fact that interest rates will have to be higher for longo, something policymakers have been been clear about, but it's.

The bond market is reflecting many things. For one, it's come to accept the fact that interest rates will have to be higher for longo, something policymakers have been been clear about, but it's.

Taken some time to get into the market.

Taken some time to get into the market.

But the other aspect, and this is the novel piece that Joyce pointed to, is we are seeing some pricing in of fiscal risks, which is usually unheard of when you think of the US market. You have a large amount of debt being issued at a time when you have quantitative tightening being done by central banks, at a time when Japan's rates have gone up, and therefore their demand for US treasuries are somewhat weaker. In that environment, what we're seeing is pressure on eels at the long horizon.

But the other aspect, and this is the novel piece that Joyce pointed to, is we are seeing some pricing in of fiscal risks, which is usually unheard of when you think of the US market. You have a large amount of debt being issued at a time when you have quantitative tightening being done by central banks, at a time when Japan's rates have gone up, and therefore their demand for US treasuries are somewhat weaker. In that environment, what we're seeing is pressure on eels at the long horizon.

Right So, right now there is a.

Right So, right now there is a.

Huge demand for cash, which is on the short end of it, but we're seeing a lot more volatility on the long end. And I want to take that to a kind of step back and make a broader point here, which is that if you look kind of around the world, particularly true the US, but many other countries, we're seeing a looming mismatch between the spending needs of countries and the resources that they will have to pay for it. It was a decade after the global financial crisis when you know that was less of a problem because you could borrow at ultra low interest rates and that is not an issue. But now you're borrowing at much higher rates and you have weak growth prospects.

Huge demand for cash, which is on the short end of it, but we're seeing a lot more volatility on the long end. And I want to take that to a kind of step back and make a broader point here, which is that if you look kind of around the world, particularly true the US, but many other countries, we're seeing a looming mismatch between the spending needs of countries and the resources that they will have to pay for it. It was a decade after the global financial crisis when you know that was less of a problem because you could borrow at ultra low interest rates and that is not an issue. But now you're borrowing at much higher rates and you have weak growth prospects.

So this is a difficult place for countries to be.

So this is a difficult place for countries to be.

There's a challenge, particularly for emerging and developing economies who have you know, important development goals that they have to meet to meet the climate transition.

There's a challenge, particularly for emerging and developing economies who have you know, important development goals that they have to meet to meet the climate transition.

But I think it is an important time for.

But I think it is an important time for.

Governments to think about how they're going to pay for all these spending needs without relying as much as they did on borrowing.

Governments to think about how they're going to pay for all these spending needs without relying as much as they did on borrowing.

And it goes I look at this and I look back at your wonderful article in Foreign Affairs.

And it goes I look at this and I look back at your wonderful article in Foreign Affairs.

I can't say enough about it, folks.

I can't say enough about it, folks.

And there are these phrases from another time and place gad most favored nation status, and now we have, as you write about, almost a blockism from.

And there are these phrases from another time and place gad most favored nation status, and now we have, as you write about, almost a blockism from.

Pre World War two.

Pre World War two.

What is going to be the process that WTO can provide to get us to a better place. I'm very here in Americash, I'm very much listening for the processes recommended to jump start us out five years to better trade situation.

What is going to be the process that WTO can provide to get us to a better place. I'm very here in Americash, I'm very much listening for the processes recommended to jump start us out five years to better trade situation.

What would it be?

What would it be?

Well, thank you, Tom. I think the one thing we don't recommend.

Well, thank you, Tom. I think the one thing we don't recommend.

Let me start with that is more fragmented trade, because if we have the world, if we have trade fragmenting and people just trading with each other in blocks of people similar to themselves, this fragmentation. We've done some work it and the IMF has done some work that shows that the real losses to real global GDP in the long term as substantial five percent in a case they had seven percent, and for emerging markets and developing content is it would be in double digits. So what we and I will not stop saying this, it will become boring because we think that any fragmentation, if any if fragmentation spreads, then definitely we will not be able to get back on the good path. What I think we should look at to get us back in terms of trade, we need to avoid more protectionism. We need to avoid people retreating and thinking that, look, things are going so badly that I have to make sure that I rely as much of myself as possible. Because we've seen that global trade has rendered benefits in the long term. For the past seventy five years, we've seen people lifted out of poverty due to trade. So let's not throw away what has worked in the past, but let's try make it better.

Let me start with that is more fragmented trade, because if we have the world, if we have trade fragmenting and people just trading with each other in blocks of people similar to themselves, this fragmentation. We've done some work it and the IMF has done some work that shows that the real losses to real global GDP in the long term as substantial five percent in a case they had seven percent, and for emerging markets and developing content is it would be in double digits. So what we and I will not stop saying this, it will become boring because we think that any fragmentation, if any if fragmentation spreads, then definitely we will not be able to get back on the good path. What I think we should look at to get us back in terms of trade, we need to avoid more protectionism. We need to avoid people retreating and thinking that, look, things are going so badly that I have to make sure that I rely as much of myself as possible. Because we've seen that global trade has rendered benefits in the long term. For the past seventy five years, we've seen people lifted out of poverty due to trade. So let's not throw away what has worked in the past, but let's try make it better.

That's why we talked about the regal mobalization.

That's why we talked about the regal mobalization.

So let's avoid protectionism and putting barriers.

So let's avoid protectionism and putting barriers.

The free flow of trade is what we.

The free flow of trade is what we.

Need if we really want our economies to move. I think the second thing I want to say is that there are green shoots within trade, and that's what we're looking at at the WTO.

Need if we really want our economies to move. I think the second thing I want to say is that there are green shoots within trade, and that's what we're looking at at the WTO.

We look at.

We look at.

Trade and even though you know, our recent forecast has downgraded the good straight the volume of good straight from one point seven percent to zero point eight which is quite a dramatic downgrade and goes along with all the new pessimism that is emerging.

Trade and even though you know, our recent forecast has downgraded the good straight the volume of good straight from one point seven percent to zero point eight which is quite a dramatic downgrade and goes along with all the new pessimism that is emerging.

But within that there's something very.

But within that there's something very.

Interesting happening, and that is the growth of digital trade and digitally delivered services trade, which is going at eight percent perannum. Out of thirty two trillion dollars of trade, we've got twenty five trillion that is goods, twelve trillion services, and of the twelve trillion, four trillion almost is digitally delivered services.

Interesting happening, and that is the growth of digital trade and digitally delivered services trade, which is going at eight percent perannum. Out of thirty two trillion dollars of trade, we've got twenty five trillion that is goods, twelve trillion services, and of the twelve trillion, four trillion almost is digitally delivered services.

So this is growing so fast. We are saying, what can we.

So this is growing so fast. We are saying, what can we.

Do to make sure that we fostered this trade, that we make sure micro, medium and smaller enterprises are women on enterprises that are the most, that are.

Do to make sure that we fostered this trade, that we make sure micro, medium and smaller enterprises are women on enterprises that are the most, that are.

The ones using this trade the most. That we remove.

The ones using this trade the most. That we remove.

Barriers in their way, and that we put a level playing field so that this trade can grow even more.

Barriers in their way, and that we put a level playing field so that this trade can grow even more.

So, that's the green.

So, that's the green.

Shoot, and I think as we have all this spessimism, we should look at some of these optimistic areas.

Shoot, and I think as we have all this spessimism, we should look at some of these optimistic areas.

With the time, we've got your twenty one minutes left, folks, I'm trying to get an extension right now. We'll see if we get there, and GOOZI I'm going to come back to you at the end of this effort to speak of the huge opportunity of trade within Africa, and particularly when I look at the span of the IMF here from Nairobi fifty years ago over to where we are now. Christian Lagard, when I first met you, you had just been at It's a few years ago, and I think what's so important here is we have institutional forces. And Nagosi within her wonderful article really emphasizes institutional strength. I know you've written about it as well, but few have been in the trenches of actual trade policy like you have with your service to the Republic of France. What has to be the new trade policy for the nations of Europe and for that matter, wealthy nations worldwide. What needs to be the new trade initiative that gets us to global economic growth as goes he frames it.

With the time, we've got your twenty one minutes left, folks, I'm trying to get an extension right now. We'll see if we get there, and GOOZI I'm going to come back to you at the end of this effort to speak of the huge opportunity of trade within Africa, and particularly when I look at the span of the IMF here from Nairobi fifty years ago over to where we are now. Christian Lagard, when I first met you, you had just been at It's a few years ago, and I think what's so important here is we have institutional forces. And Nagosi within her wonderful article really emphasizes institutional strength. I know you've written about it as well, but few have been in the trenches of actual trade policy like you have with your service to the Republic of France. What has to be the new trade policy for the nations of Europe and for that matter, wealthy nations worldwide. What needs to be the new trade initiative that gets us to global economic growth as goes he frames it.

Thank you Tom for that. I believe.

Thank you Tom for that. I believe.

You can check me a bit off guard because you take me back to my days as a trade minister.

You can check me a bit off guard because you take me back to my days as a trade minister.

I would say two things.

I would say two things.

One is implement the directives and the regulatory frameworks that exist in order to free up the providing of services throughout the region.

One is implement the directives and the regulatory frameworks that exist in order to free up the providing of services throughout the region.

There is a service Directive which has.

There is a service Directive which has.

Been around for years and years, of which maybe sixty percent is actually implemented. If only the whole directive was implemented without reservations, without caveats, without carve out, I think we will really lift growth in a significant way, whether in relation to goods or in relation to digital because services are largely now digitally supported.

Been around for years and years, of which maybe sixty percent is actually implemented. If only the whole directive was implemented without reservations, without caveats, without carve out, I think we will really lift growth in a significant way, whether in relation to goods or in relation to digital because services are largely now digitally supported.

That would be I say number one. Number two.

That would be I say number one. Number two.

I think that if investment, and granted currently the financing of investment is difficult, but if investments were to be focused on the green transition plus the transition towards a digital economy, I think there would also be a significant upside as a result of that.

I think that if investment, and granted currently the financing of investment is difficult, but if investments were to be focused on the green transition plus the transition towards a digital economy, I think there would also be a significant upside as a result of that.

And to pick up on ANGOZI.

And to pick up on ANGOZI.

I think in the digital world the two things that need to be improved. One is is we need a better governance. We have seen one trial after another one criminal otherwise that the digital world can lead to abuses, including in financial services. So governance is one where we need to make progress, and we need to make progress collectively. Number two, and the European Central Bank spends a lot of effort and time on that. We also central bankers, the holders of currency.

I think in the digital world the two things that need to be improved. One is is we need a better governance. We have seen one trial after another one criminal otherwise that the digital world can lead to abuses, including in financial services. So governance is one where we need to make progress, and we need to make progress collectively. Number two, and the European Central Bank spends a lot of effort and time on that. We also central bankers, the holders of currency.

We need to move to the digital area and we.

We need to move to the digital area and we.

Need to be ready to launch CBDC for US it's digital euro in relatively short order, so that we can make it safe and have a monetary anchor that has digital traits as well.

Need to be ready to launch CBDC for US it's digital euro in relatively short order, so that we can make it safe and have a monetary anchor that has digital traits as well.

Joece, all of this.

Joece, all of this.

Is wonderful, and I think of ben Waku right and what they're doing at bis Raphael our own bitcoin and arrest has been really thought provoking for me, except then I have to look at my Bloomberg to see where the bid is named. The piece of paper I bought the Austria ninety seven year I thought that would be a good thing. I'm down seventy percent. That's worked out. But the fact is, with all of these economic thoughts. We go back to the screen at JP Morgan that shows a bid and an ask how deep are these markets and do you worry about jump conditions? What Peter orzag would say we get off the glide paths were normal and that we get it not inflammatory crisis, but that we are in enough of a liquidity issue where there's jump conditions versus the smoothness we're addicted to.

Is wonderful, and I think of ben Waku right and what they're doing at bis Raphael our own bitcoin and arrest has been really thought provoking for me, except then I have to look at my Bloomberg to see where the bid is named. The piece of paper I bought the Austria ninety seven year I thought that would be a good thing. I'm down seventy percent. That's worked out. But the fact is, with all of these economic thoughts. We go back to the screen at JP Morgan that shows a bid and an ask how deep are these markets and do you worry about jump conditions? What Peter orzag would say we get off the glide paths were normal and that we get it not inflammatory crisis, but that we are in enough of a liquidity issue where there's jump conditions versus the smoothness we're addicted to.

Well, I think, you know, look higher for longer. It's also harder for longer for emerging markets. So there's sort who answers that question.

Well, I think, you know, look higher for longer. It's also harder for longer for emerging markets. So there's sort who answers that question.

There is first that.

There is first that.

You have this crowding out problem to begin with. I mean, if you can be in cash and get five and a half percent or six percent from a US corporate bond, and you have an emerging markets local currency index that has a yield to six point seven percent, then you're going to see say things you know, go back into safe assets rather than to other places. And that makes the challenge a lot harder for many of the issues that we've talked about this week, how you get climate financing, how you fund the debt for the distressed countries. It's just made the bar that much higher to begin with, and then you have the plumbing question, the second part that you asked about, and you've had a fundamental shift in the market. You know, it's gone electronic. The primary dealers are not able to necessarily absorb you know, the size of these increased auctions as well. So you have a market that overshoots. And so even though you've seen you know, really good management in policies from emerging markets countries, that whole issue of financing and how you use the capital markets becomes much more complicated when you can just get such high yields on short duration and cash and so you know a lot of the dilemma I think that comes out that's thing complicated by the liquidity question, that you get these overshoots and market volatility where you get these surges in the in the moves as well, and so I think it is a much more complicated environment. That there's the really good management that has been part of it, and we've seen the real resilience in the emerging markets countries, and then there's some of the realities of crowding out alternative investments, and then the liquidity considerations in this type of market for what can actually be transacted for some of these longer term goals.

You have this crowding out problem to begin with. I mean, if you can be in cash and get five and a half percent or six percent from a US corporate bond, and you have an emerging markets local currency index that has a yield to six point seven percent, then you're going to see say things you know, go back into safe assets rather than to other places. And that makes the challenge a lot harder for many of the issues that we've talked about this week, how you get climate financing, how you fund the debt for the distressed countries. It's just made the bar that much higher to begin with, and then you have the plumbing question, the second part that you asked about, and you've had a fundamental shift in the market. You know, it's gone electronic. The primary dealers are not able to necessarily absorb you know, the size of these increased auctions as well. So you have a market that overshoots. And so even though you've seen you know, really good management in policies from emerging markets countries, that whole issue of financing and how you use the capital markets becomes much more complicated when you can just get such high yields on short duration and cash and so you know a lot of the dilemma I think that comes out that's thing complicated by the liquidity question, that you get these overshoots and market volatility where you get these surges in the in the moves as well, and so I think it is a much more complicated environment. That there's the really good management that has been part of it, and we've seen the real resilience in the emerging markets countries, and then there's some of the realities of crowding out alternative investments, and then the liquidity considerations in this type of market for what can actually be transacted for some of these longer term goals.

I look at this gate up and you know, with your work at Harvard University before the International Monetary Fund.

I look at this gate up and you know, with your work at Harvard University before the International Monetary Fund.

And I look at Jason Furman.

And I look at Jason Furman.

With you yesterday, with Martin Wolf teaching a small economics course up at Harvard which is ageless and timeless, with Martin Feldstein and others, And then I think of a textbook like MANQ.

With you yesterday, with Martin Wolf teaching a small economics course up at Harvard which is ageless and timeless, with Martin Feldstein and others, And then I think of a textbook like MANQ.

Did you have man Q?

Did you have man Q?

Was your first macro effort? What was your first textbook?

Was your first macro effort? What was your first textbook?

My first six book?

My first six book?

This was back in India.

This was back in India.

I know I didn't have MANQUE.

I know I didn't have MANQUE.

Okay, well maybe they have Manque in India as well. We'll see. But to go with greg MANQ, it's a simpler textbook thirty years ago.

Okay, well maybe they have Manque in India as well. We'll see. But to go with greg MANQ, it's a simpler textbook thirty years ago.

And you've talked to me about the complexities now that filter across all of this, and it struggled to get to a better economic growth, to find the complexities you're focused.

And you've talked to me about the complexities now that filter across all of this, and it struggled to get to a better economic growth, to find the complexities you're focused.

On right now.

On right now.

So in terms of.

So in terms of.

Policy making, which is a lot what Gregor also goes into in his textbook, which is looking at how does monetary policy work and fiscal policy work?

Policy making, which is a lot what Gregor also goes into in his textbook, which is looking at how does monetary policy work and fiscal policy work?

I'd like to think that there was a time during.

I'd like to think that there was a time during.

The Great Moderation, but also after the GFC, when it was somewhat easier to be a central banker than it is now for President Legard, and it was somewhat easier to be a finance minister than it is now for many finance ministers.

The Great Moderation, but also after the GFC, when it was somewhat easier to be a central banker than it is now for President Legard, and it was somewhat easier to be a finance minister than it is now for many finance ministers.

And why is that?

And why is that?

Which one is We're now in a world with way more supply sharks than we've been used to. It's a much more volatile environment, and therefore the decisions and.

Which one is We're now in a world with way more supply sharks than we've been used to. It's a much more volatile environment, and therefore the decisions and.

Trade offs are much more complicated.

Trade offs are much more complicated.

And how are you going to bring down inflation while at the same time making sure that employment doesn't collapse. That's going to be a much hardest decision. So the end, you know, the error kind of low forever, let's look through supply shocks.

And how are you going to bring down inflation while at the same time making sure that employment doesn't collapse. That's going to be a much hardest decision. So the end, you know, the error kind of low forever, let's look through supply shocks.

All of that has changed.

All of that has changed.

And I don't think uh in a president of God can come in with Christine can come in. Which is you know, which you look through supply shocks at this time? I think that's a that's a good question. If you're a finance minister, you're no longer being able to borrow at dirt cheap interest rates. We give the example of the US, which is the safe acet issuer. Right, if you look at debt servicing costs, which is the amount of revenue. Government revenue that goes to pay interest payments on that was eight percent in twenty nineteen is projected to go up to fourteen percent in twenty twenty eight. That's a combination of debt growing but also the higher interest rates that you're paying on it that makes it much harder. That's the US, and we're looking at other countries and other emerging markets who are borrowing a much higher It's even though the spreads have not drawn up that much, the fact that their basic interest rates that they're paying are much higher is making life much.

And I don't think uh in a president of God can come in with Christine can come in. Which is you know, which you look through supply shocks at this time? I think that's a that's a good question. If you're a finance minister, you're no longer being able to borrow at dirt cheap interest rates. We give the example of the US, which is the safe acet issuer. Right, if you look at debt servicing costs, which is the amount of revenue. Government revenue that goes to pay interest payments on that was eight percent in twenty nineteen is projected to go up to fourteen percent in twenty twenty eight. That's a combination of debt growing but also the higher interest rates that you're paying on it that makes it much harder. That's the US, and we're looking at other countries and other emerging markets who are borrowing a much higher It's even though the spreads have not drawn up that much, the fact that their basic interest rates that they're paying are much higher is making life much.

Harder for them.

Harder for them.

And then of course low income countries, we're looking at interest payments, debt servicings of twenty percent of revenue, so much harder. The trade offs for being a finance minister, and all of this is happening in mine and for all of us. With geopolitical tensions and fragmentation, I completely. I mean, I'm with Angozi that we have to work very hard to lean against the coupling in the world.

And then of course low income countries, we're looking at interest payments, debt servicings of twenty percent of revenue, so much harder. The trade offs for being a finance minister, and all of this is happening in mine and for all of us. With geopolitical tensions and fragmentation, I completely. I mean, I'm with Angozi that we have to work very hard to lean against the coupling in the world.

But I also do think is.

But I also do think is.

The time that countries will need to adapt to the changes that are happening.

The time that countries will need to adapt to the changes that are happening.

There are real change that are going on. We have three.

There are real change that are going on. We have three.

Thousand new trade restrictions that were put in twenty put in place in twenty twenty two, which is three times the number that was put in twenty nineteen. There's all kinds of tit for tat reactions in trade policy.

Thousand new trade restrictions that were put in twenty put in place in twenty twenty two, which is three times the number that was put in twenty nineteen. There's all kinds of tit for tat reactions in trade policy.

When you know, when the US or.

When you know, when the US or.

When China or when the European Union puts in place a subsidy measure, there's a seventy three percent chance that one of the other countries will retaliate within twelve months. So we're in that world, which means countries will have to adapt to this new landscape.

When China or when the European Union puts in place a subsidy measure, there's a seventy three percent chance that one of the other countries will retaliate within twelve months. So we're in that world, which means countries will have to adapt to this new landscape.

You'll have to try to diversify.

You'll have to try to diversify.

You will have instead of besides just you know, de risking your financial making sure you have.

You will have instead of besides just you know, de risking your financial making sure you have.

Risks.

Risks.

You've contained the risks of the financial system, you have to look at containing the risks in your supply chains. You countries will have to turn towards domestic resource mobilization because they're going to have to figure out get the old business done, which is raise tax revenues. So I think it's a much more challenge environment to get policy done. And let's not forget you know, if you go back and think of the origins of economics and back to Adam Smith, and all of us have grown up on that tradition too.

You've contained the risks of the financial system, you have to look at containing the risks in your supply chains. You countries will have to turn towards domestic resource mobilization because they're going to have to figure out get the old business done, which is raise tax revenues. So I think it's a much more challenge environment to get policy done. And let's not forget you know, if you go back and think of the origins of economics and back to Adam Smith, and all of us have grown up on that tradition too.

That was done at the time when there were only.

That was done at the time when there were only.

Human beings and human interactions, and now we're entering the world of artificial intelligence and all the complications that come with that. So I think that also leads to fundamentals wethink of how we think of economics presently.

Human beings and human interactions, and now we're entering the world of artificial intelligence and all the complications that come with that. So I think that also leads to fundamentals wethink of how we think of economics presently.

Guard you are furiously taking notes over there, you comment on this place.

Guard you are furiously taking notes over there, you comment on this place.

I've got about eight ways to go here, but I'll let you choose which way to go that.

I've got about eight ways to go here, but I'll let you choose which way to go that.

I always try to take notes when there are intelligent people around me, and they are I will follow up from where guitar left it in terms of how more difficult it is today than maybe it was, and we tend to look at the world thinking, oh, it was so much better before.

I always try to take notes when there are intelligent people around me, and they are I will follow up from where guitar left it in terms of how more difficult it is today than maybe it was, and we tend to look at the world thinking, oh, it was so much better before.

I think what's critically.

I think what's critically.

Important is that we have an open mind and we have the humility to accept that we.

Important is that we have an open mind and we have the humility to accept that we.

Don't know it all.

Don't know it all.

Number One, the instruments that we have been using need to change and evolve and are just and integrate new components that we haven't had on our plate.

Number One, the instruments that we have been using need to change and evolve and are just and integrate new components that we haven't had on our plate.

And I think that applies to models.

And I think that applies to models.

That applies also to our communication, That applies to many factors that certainly have an impact on our job as central bankers, and if we do all that, I'm sure that we can get to where our mission drives us to be.

That applies also to our communication, That applies to many factors that certainly have an impact on our job as central bankers, and if we do all that, I'm sure that we can get to where our mission drives us to be.

And I'm not going to repeat.

And I'm not going to repeat.

Myself, but it's something that is embedded in the DNA of central bankers, which is that price stability obsession that we have in order to facilitate the unleashing of economic forces for the better. I would just mention one thing, which is time management. I mean, the whole debate about transitory team not transitory team, and all that is in a way or reflection of our relation.

Myself, but it's something that is embedded in the DNA of central bankers, which is that price stability obsession that we have in order to facilitate the unleashing of economic forces for the better. I would just mention one thing, which is time management. I mean, the whole debate about transitory team not transitory team, and all that is in a way or reflection of our relation.

To the passing of time and.

To the passing of time and.

The movement that we have observed more recently from our audiences, whether it's people in the trade analyst observers, but also the general public, which expect instant results, instant gratification in the face of what monetary policy can do, in the face of how market forces respond, which has always an element of time lag and requires patience and to actually be able to communicate that and come up with the narrative that will be convincing enough so that those who determine inflation expectations, for instance, appreciate that patience will be needed.

The movement that we have observed more recently from our audiences, whether it's people in the trade analyst observers, but also the general public, which expect instant results, instant gratification in the face of what monetary policy can do, in the face of how market forces respond, which has always an element of time lag and requires patience and to actually be able to communicate that and come up with the narrative that will be convincing enough so that those who determine inflation expectations, for instance, appreciate that patience will be needed.

That is not going to just happen.

That is not going to just happen.

Instantly as you move from one game to the other. I think it's something that is challenge for all of US policymakers.

Instantly as you move from one game to the other. I think it's something that is challenge for all of US policymakers.

Director General.

Director General.

Fifty years ago, the IMF, it's not that it was lost, but it was looking for a new path. In nineteen seventy three and Nairobi, Johann Vittevin discovered that path. It was a new place for the IMF to go. And here we are in Africa at Marrakesh looking for a new path and in conversation after conversation, the great opportunity is Africa. The statistics are there, you have them beautifully in your essays and your work at WTO. Frankly, before that year, historic work on corruption tell us the opportunity in Africa is we find economic growth.

Fifty years ago, the IMF, it's not that it was lost, but it was looking for a new path. In nineteen seventy three and Nairobi, Johann Vittevin discovered that path. It was a new place for the IMF to go. And here we are in Africa at Marrakesh looking for a new path and in conversation after conversation, the great opportunity is Africa. The statistics are there, you have them beautifully in your essays and your work at WTO. Frankly, before that year, historic work on corruption tell us the opportunity in Africa is we find economic growth.

Well, maybe that's a good note to end on. Since we're the content, I do want to build on what Guitan and Christine have said on the fact that it's a very challenging environment. I think the reason we're preach so much and try to remind people that seventy five percent of world trade still takes place on WTO terms, So let's remember that or most favored nation terms seventy five percent, so that's nothing to sneeze it. But yes, there are emerging signs of trouble. So I really agree with that, and I think that those who will lose out the most are the poorer countries, which is why it is incumbent on us. We're here in Africa. There are many countries that are debt distressed. Africa's share of world trade is three percent and actually fell below that during the pandemic. And we're building this beautiful African Continental Free Trade Area that you refer to fifty four countries, the largest in terms of the number of countries, which offers hope that Africa, if it's able to remove the barriers, can trade better with itself because inter African trade is anywhere from sixteen to twenty percent, and trade better with the world, and this will help to lift up incomes within the continent.

Well, maybe that's a good note to end on. Since we're the content, I do want to build on what Guitan and Christine have said on the fact that it's a very challenging environment. I think the reason we're preach so much and try to remind people that seventy five percent of world trade still takes place on WTO terms, So let's remember that or most favored nation terms seventy five percent, so that's nothing to sneeze it. But yes, there are emerging signs of trouble. So I really agree with that, and I think that those who will lose out the most are the poorer countries, which is why it is incumbent on us. We're here in Africa. There are many countries that are debt distressed. Africa's share of world trade is three percent and actually fell below that during the pandemic. And we're building this beautiful African Continental Free Trade Area that you refer to fifty four countries, the largest in terms of the number of countries, which offers hope that Africa, if it's able to remove the barriers, can trade better with itself because inter African trade is anywhere from sixteen to twenty percent, and trade better with the world, and this will help to lift up incomes within the continent.

However, this will only.

However, this will only.

Happen if we can add value to the products.

Happen if we can add value to the products.

We can't tread the same things to each other.

We can't tread the same things to each other.

You know, we had sport raw materials and commodities. But the hope here is creating a large market of one point four billion people.

You know, we had sport raw materials and commodities. But the hope here is creating a large market of one point four billion people.

The hope here is the young age of the population.

The hope here is the young age of the population.

Europe is aging, the US is kind of in the middle. US has been receiving a lot of immigration, so they're smart, or they used to be smart about it.

Europe is aging, the US is kind of in the middle. US has been receiving a lot of immigration, so they're smart, or they used to be smart about it.

Do you care to expand on that?

Do you care to expand on that?

China is aging, you know, so the action Japan is aging.

China is aging, you know, so the action Japan is aging.

So the action is here.

So the action is here.

We have the young people, we can the productivity. If we harness that resource, we can see productivity gains that are quite substantial.

We have the young people, we can the productivity. If we harness that resource, we can see productivity gains that are quite substantial.

So those are two things.

So those are two things.

How do we use our human resources and harness our young people so they're not jumping into the Sahara or the Mediterranean to go somewhere else. How do we add value to our products? And there's a chance now you know, we have some critical supply chains. Yeah, critical raw materials and minerals that the world needs if it's going to reduce carbon emissions.

How do we use our human resources and harness our young people so they're not jumping into the Sahara or the Mediterranean to go somewhere else. How do we add value to our products? And there's a chance now you know, we have some critical supply chains. Yeah, critical raw materials and minerals that the world needs if it's going to reduce carbon emissions.

While we should add value.

While we should add value.

To those products here rather than exporting them.

To those products here rather than exporting them.

So there's a lot of hope here.

So there's a lot of hope here.

For green energy, green hydrogen, critical minerals. Add value to our products here, create jobs on the continent. We have young people who are very savvy with fintech and the tech sector.

For green energy, green hydrogen, critical minerals. Add value to our products here, create jobs on the continent. We have young people who are very savvy with fintech and the tech sector.

You can see the more I talk, the more excited I get.

You can see the more I talk, the more excited I get.

So yes, I.

So yes, I.

Think the future is here, but we have a lot of work to do ourselves. Nobody's going to hand this to us. We have to be you know, governance is an issue we talked about, yes better, but we also are suffering from problems we did not create. We didn't create the pandemic. We didn't create Well, we have the debt and you know what happens outside right has a great impact on that. So we also need to have that support to manage the debt situation that the countries are in.

Think the future is here, but we have a lot of work to do ourselves. Nobody's going to hand this to us. We have to be you know, governance is an issue we talked about, yes better, but we also are suffering from problems we did not create. We didn't create the pandemic. We didn't create Well, we have the debt and you know what happens outside right has a great impact on that. So we also need to have that support to manage the debt situation that the countries are in.

Sort that out.

Sort that out.

Give some physical space to countries so they can actually actually spend on education, health and the things that matter, and on the young people.

Give some physical space to countries so they can actually actually spend on education, health and the things that matter, and on the young people.

I was going to give you the last word, but I got the leguard.

I was going to give you the last word, but I got the leguard.

This actually, for instance, from it for a microsecond.

This actually, for instance, from it for a microsecond.

Because you want to take more than a Microsoft.

Because you want to take more than a Microsoft.

I want to bring Nadia Fitta's voice here. She was supposed to be on a Panland. She's not Minister Finance, Mister Finance of Morocco. She's in Parliament for the first session and I think following up from what Tengozi said, she would probably mention that in a few years, probably a short while actually a first entirely made in Morocco electronic vehicle will be produced and will be shipped outside of Tanje, which is an extraordinary platform out there.

I want to bring Nadia Fitta's voice here. She was supposed to be on a Panland. She's not Minister Finance, Mister Finance of Morocco. She's in Parliament for the first session and I think following up from what Tengozi said, she would probably mention that in a few years, probably a short while actually a first entirely made in Morocco electronic vehicle will be produced and will be shipped outside of Tanje, which is an extraordinary platform out there.

Thank you, Director do Opener. For final word to use.

Thank you, Director do Opener. For final word to use.

Is we've covered a lot of ground here. I think we let's try and end on on a positive re note, which is one in line with what Joyce said. It is absolutely the case that emerging markets and developing countries have demonstrated remarkable resilience over the last few years, and it is an outcome of having put in place good macro policies like central bank independence, inflation targeting frameworks.

Is we've covered a lot of ground here. I think we let's try and end on on a positive re note, which is one in line with what Joyce said. It is absolutely the case that emerging markets and developing countries have demonstrated remarkable resilience over the last few years, and it is an outcome of having put in place good macro policies like central bank independence, inflation targeting frameworks.

So I think a takeaway is that.

So I think a takeaway is that.

When you do the right things, you can build the resilience in your economies, and that is a lesson to be taken away and expanded on for all countries. Secondly, I would just said we need to get the unfinished business done. It's always hard to get structural reforms done. It's always been hard to strengthen the wto even more, it's been hard to rely on domestic resources and through raising revenue to meet your needs for countries. But this is the moment when countries will have to take difficult decisions just given the environment we live.