Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this out with the equity market rarely losing some steam as President atlect Donald Trump's tarif escalation fuel's dollar strength. Stuart Kaiser city right in the following. The focus of markets has been Trump policy and geopolitical events that have shifted risk specific pricing, but not reached critical mass to drive broad based de risking. Stuart joined us. Now for more, Stuart and Mornick. You see evidence of that again this morning.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this out with the equity market rarely losing some steam as President atlect Donald Trump's tarif escalation fuel's dollar strength. Stuart Kaiser city right in the following. The focus of markets has been Trump policy and geopolitical events that have shifted risk specific pricing, but not reached critical mass to drive broad based de risking. Stuart joined us. Now for more, Stuart and Mornick. You see evidence of that again this morning.

Well, I mean this is what we'll see how futures react, you know, to the tariff announcements. The market's kind of been on top of this. If you look a whare volatility. Marks has been pricing risk premiums. It's been in precious metals, it's been in you know, China exposed equities, and it's been in the currencies. So I think the market has kind of viewed those as key sort of pockets of risk, and you know, they're going to be surprised, I think by the magnitude of tyrists proposed on what for what we're former NAFTA, you know, kind of trade members. So without a doubt, you know what, We'll see how the futures react, but you know, this is this is what we're in for. I think for the next couple of months.

Well, I mean this is what we'll see how futures react, you know, to the tariff announcements. The market's kind of been on top of this. If you look a whare volatility. Marks has been pricing risk premiums. It's been in precious metals, it's been in you know, China exposed equities, and it's been in the currencies. So I think the market has kind of viewed those as key sort of pockets of risk, and you know, they're going to be surprised, I think by the magnitude of tyrists proposed on what for what we're former NAFTA, you know, kind of trade members. So without a doubt, you know what, We'll see how the futures react, but you know, this is this is what we're in for. I think for the next couple of months.

How credible do you think the threats is additional ten percent on China, twenty five percent on Mexico and Canada. How credible is that?

How credible do you think the threats is additional ten percent on China, twenty five percent on Mexico and Canada. How credible is that?

I mean you have to read it as credible. I mean, this is the president of the United States. He increased tariffs in his in his first h you know, his first term, and this was you know, part of his campaign, So I think you have to view them as credible. You know, I think some of his some of his inner circle has talked about these being negotiating tactics, and I think that's that's potentially true, but I mean a negotiating tactic is only effective if you're willing to use it, So I think you have to have to view them as as credible threats yet, which is the reason.

I mean you have to read it as credible. I mean, this is the president of the United States. He increased tariffs in his in his first h you know, his first term, and this was you know, part of his campaign, So I think you have to view them as credible. You know, I think some of his some of his inner circle has talked about these being negotiating tactics, and I think that's that's potentially true, but I mean a negotiating tactic is only effective if you're willing to use it, So I think you have to have to view them as as credible threats yet, which is the reason.

Why line risk is real and the reason why you're seeing people trade on this, even if that trade gets faded in a couple of hours because of another headline that comes out. Is a good time or a bad time to be a trader?

Why line risk is real and the reason why you're seeing people trade on this, even if that trade gets faded in a couple of hours because of another headline that comes out. Is a good time or a bad time to be a trader?

It's a hard time to be a trader.

It's a hard time to be a trader.

I would say, Look, I think it's a good time in the sense that you know, good traders like.

I would say, Look, I think it's a good time in the sense that you know, good traders like.

A little bit of market volatility.

A little bit of market volatility.

I think the hard part about these type of things is just the unpredictability of it. It's not you know, payrolls are going to be released at a thirty am on December sixth, and I can kind of position and.

I think the hard part about these type of things is just the unpredictability of it. It's not you know, payrolls are going to be released at a thirty am on December sixth, and I can kind of position and.

Trade around that.

Trade around that.

You know, this is a little more you know, kind of random in terms of timing, and also you know, coming to you from.

You know, this is a little more you know, kind of random in terms of timing, and also you know, coming to you from.

A lot of directions.

A lot of directions.

Right, you have traders that are trying to deal with potential impact on healthcare policy, potential impact on food policy, and put potential impact on tariffs, et cetera.

Right, you have traders that are trying to deal with potential impact on healthcare policy, potential impact on food policy, and put potential impact on tariffs, et cetera.

Et cetera. I mean, nobody can say this is totally surprising.

Et cetera. I mean, nobody can say this is totally surprising.

Again, these were all things that were discussed during the election as priorities to deal with.

Again, these were all things that were discussed during the election as priorities to deal with.

But no, it's a.

But no, it's a.

Difficult time, I think to be a trader unless you get it right.

Difficult time, I think to be a trader unless you get it right.

To build on that.

To build on that.

You're talking about how there are specific headlines that have affected healthcare and appointments that have affected health care sector in particular, and you had a great note talking about how different sectors have traded differently from the overall headline in tandem with people's belief. Do you think that one of those moves is stickier than the other in terms of, say, healthcare, given the fact that some of the potential nominees for cabinet positions have talked about really disrupting healthcare in America.

You're talking about how there are specific headlines that have affected healthcare and appointments that have affected health care sector in particular, and you had a great note talking about how different sectors have traded differently from the overall headline in tandem with people's belief. Do you think that one of those moves is stickier than the other in terms of, say, healthcare, given the fact that some of the potential nominees for cabinet positions have talked about really disrupting healthcare in America.

Yeah, I think, you know, toscoing into the election, two of the sectors that were a little bit like WILDCARDI would have been healthcare and energy, just in the sense that it's hard to decide what's going to go on at like the gigs level one sectoral level you almost have to go down a level, and even within healthcare that's the case. You know, do you have pharma being impacted in one direction, but then you have biotech potentially benefiting from M and A, and then people are trying to hide out and bed tech for instance. So it's a very complicated sector in terms of the policies that are being proposed impact different levels of it. As you go around energy, I would say, same way, We're going to drill a lot. That might be good for let's say pipelines, but it might push the price of oil lower. So I think those two sectors in particular are very complex right now, going to be very, very difficult to trade. In terms of persist I think the markets are telling you they think banking is persistent. So I think, you know that is the one that people were comfortable being long even in a down week.

Yeah, I think, you know, toscoing into the election, two of the sectors that were a little bit like WILDCARDI would have been healthcare and energy, just in the sense that it's hard to decide what's going to go on at like the gigs level one sectoral level you almost have to go down a level, and even within healthcare that's the case. You know, do you have pharma being impacted in one direction, but then you have biotech potentially benefiting from M and A, and then people are trying to hide out and bed tech for instance. So it's a very complicated sector in terms of the policies that are being proposed impact different levels of it. As you go around energy, I would say, same way, We're going to drill a lot. That might be good for let's say pipelines, but it might push the price of oil lower. So I think those two sectors in particular are very complex right now, going to be very, very difficult to trade. In terms of persist I think the markets are telling you they think banking is persistent. So I think, you know that is the one that people were comfortable being long even in a down week.

Those the banks are rallying.

Those the banks are rallying.

But I think healthcare and energy of the two that are going to be a little bit more more pulled than in multiple directions at the same time.

But I think healthcare and energy of the two that are going to be a little bit more more pulled than in multiple directions at the same time.

When it comes to healthcare, though, changing policy in Washington, d C. Is like moving a massive tank. It takes a really long time. Would now potentially be a good entry point given how they have fallen with some of these announcements.

When it comes to healthcare, though, changing policy in Washington, d C. Is like moving a massive tank. It takes a really long time. Would now potentially be a good entry point given how they have fallen with some of these announcements.

You know it's possible.

You know it's possible.

I think, you know, our view on healthcare has been that it was going to be difficult trade goingty election. We do think it's a beneficiary of M and A. I think at the top one of the question is in this in you know, the releatant for the credibility question is you know, how much of this stuff is is sort of more pie in the sky or maybe RF kids, you and your personality, things you'd like to get done, versus what are.

I think, you know, our view on healthcare has been that it was going to be difficult trade goingty election. We do think it's a beneficiary of M and A. I think at the top one of the question is in this in you know, the releatant for the credibility question is you know, how much of this stuff is is sort of more pie in the sky or maybe RF kids, you and your personality, things you'd like to get done, versus what are.

They actually going to kind of push through.

They actually going to kind of push through.

I think there is potentially the you know, the there's going to be a time to fade this stuff. I think right now, when things are just kind of so kind of uncertain and more of I don't know, wish lists that actual policy might not be the time. I think, you know, argue on the election. It's three stages. It's the initial risk on reaction to the election. Then you have what we're in now, which is nominees and policy proposals. Then you have phase three, which is probably next year, which is actually policy implementation. I think as we get closer to that is when you can think about kind of fading some of these things.

I think there is potentially the you know, the there's going to be a time to fade this stuff. I think right now, when things are just kind of so kind of uncertain and more of I don't know, wish lists that actual policy might not be the time. I think, you know, argue on the election. It's three stages. It's the initial risk on reaction to the election. Then you have what we're in now, which is nominees and policy proposals. Then you have phase three, which is probably next year, which is actually policy implementation. I think as we get closer to that is when you can think about kind of fading some of these things.

Well in this phase to this transition, Why are US markets taking it and shried, and European markets are down across the board.

Well in this phase to this transition, Why are US markets taking it and shried, and European markets are down across the board.

That's a great question.

That's a great question.

US markets are, I think, are still benefiting from like the risk on repositioning part. I think a lot of the policies we've discussed, particularly on the tariff side, are viewed as more you know, pro us and and kind of hurt your you know, to some extent. And then you have the geopolitical risk you know, coming out of coming out of both the Middle East and Russia Ukraine. So look, I mean, if there's one thing that Trump administration is probably focused on is domestic growth, right America first type situation. So if you believe he is going to be successful at that, then almost by definition, US markets should benefit a bit more.

US markets are, I think, are still benefiting from like the risk on repositioning part. I think a lot of the policies we've discussed, particularly on the tariff side, are viewed as more you know, pro us and and kind of hurt your you know, to some extent. And then you have the geopolitical risk you know, coming out of coming out of both the Middle East and Russia Ukraine. So look, I mean, if there's one thing that Trump administration is probably focused on is domestic growth, right America first type situation. So if you believe he is going to be successful at that, then almost by definition, US markets should benefit a bit more.

You know.

You know.

Will that actually come out, you know, in the wash, We'll have to see, but I think that's part of it.

Will that actually come out, you know, in the wash, We'll have to see, but I think that's part of it.

Right now.

Right now.

What you'll read on domestic growth to retat, it's just reporting moments ago one is cast the other is best by both triming their roundlok down ground in their round block. What she'll read on things right now, I understand landmine big inventry problem. I've got that. You can sit here and say that's a target problem. What are you seeing across the other resat it's what are we learning about consumption and how good US growth actually is.

What you'll read on domestic growth to retat, it's just reporting moments ago one is cast the other is best by both triming their roundlok down ground in their round block. What she'll read on things right now, I understand landmine big inventry problem. I've got that. You can sit here and say that's a target problem. What are you seeing across the other resat it's what are we learning about consumption and how good US growth actually is.

I mean, it looks fairly solid.

I mean, it looks fairly solid.

You know, our our retail folks, you know, did a big survey pre holiday spending. It looks like holiday season is going to look pretty solid. So that's that's a good story. On that side, I think was Williams and Oma actually put up put up pretty decent numbers on their earnings. So it looks like, you know, I think how it's been, which is the underlying growth momentum, seems pretty positive. But you're sort of at that level where you get some good news and bad news, and you know, I think because of that that the bad news stuff is getting punished pretty bad. So I think over the summer we were trading decelerating growth. I think you still have to be trading this as you are at a solid growth level, but you're close enough to borderlines that when you get bad news you get a ton of reaction. But payrolls are going to be massive. On December sixth, my read would be growth is solid, but you know, not exemplary, and we just kind of have to trade it that way, and in those environments you have a lot of kind of risk reward and volatility because you're close to you're close to trigger points in a lot of spots.

You know, our our retail folks, you know, did a big survey pre holiday spending. It looks like holiday season is going to look pretty solid. So that's that's a good story. On that side, I think was Williams and Oma actually put up put up pretty decent numbers on their earnings. So it looks like, you know, I think how it's been, which is the underlying growth momentum, seems pretty positive. But you're sort of at that level where you get some good news and bad news, and you know, I think because of that that the bad news stuff is getting punished pretty bad. So I think over the summer we were trading decelerating growth. I think you still have to be trading this as you are at a solid growth level, but you're close enough to borderlines that when you get bad news you get a ton of reaction. But payrolls are going to be massive. On December sixth, my read would be growth is solid, but you know, not exemplary, and we just kind of have to trade it that way, and in those environments you have a lot of kind of risk reward and volatility because you're close to you're close to trigger points in a lot of spots.

You talk about how they're winners and losers, the winners being the Walmarts of the world, the winners being some of the big tech names. I want to read some of the commentary from.

You talk about how they're winners and losers, the winners being the Walmarts of the world, the winners being some of the big tech names. I want to read some of the commentary from.

The Coal CEO.

The Coal CEO.

I thought this was interesting.

I thought this was interesting.

We are approaching our financial outlook for the year more conservatively given the third quarter underperformance and our expectation for a highly competitive high holiday season.

We are approaching our financial outlook for the year more conservatively given the third quarter underperformance and our expectation for a highly competitive high holiday season.

Is this a new time.

Is this a new time.

Where the big are going to get bigger that anyone who has that platform to basically dominate when it comes to data, when it comes to some of the technological advancements and deliveries are going to outperform at a time where they can offer maybe better price, competitive competition than some of the other companies that haven't had the scope to really expand in that way.

Where the big are going to get bigger that anyone who has that platform to basically dominate when it comes to data, when it comes to some of the technological advancements and deliveries are going to outperform at a time where they can offer maybe better price, competitive competition than some of the other companies that haven't had the scope to really expand in that way.

Yeah, I mean, I think that's true, and I think you know that also brings the tariff discussion into is you know, which are these bigger companies more better set up to deal with any potential tariffs than kind of smaller competitors. So yeah, I think, you know, the big winning you know, that's hard to say. You still have to get it right. I mean, Target's a big company and they clearly got something wrong, you know, just just based on the stock price reaction. So yeah, I think it gives maybe a wal Mart on Amazon a little bit of an advantage, but there's still execution risk, right, and you do need to do it and.

Yeah, I mean, I think that's true, and I think you know that also brings the tariff discussion into is you know, which are these bigger companies more better set up to deal with any potential tariffs than kind of smaller competitors. So yeah, I think, you know, the big winning you know, that's hard to say. You still have to get it right. I mean, Target's a big company and they clearly got something wrong, you know, just just based on the stock price reaction. So yeah, I think it gives maybe a wal Mart on Amazon a little bit of an advantage, but there's still execution risk, right, and you do need to do it and.

Do it well.

Do it well.

I mean, I don't I'm not under the impression that this is a more competitive holiday season than last holiday season, for instance. I mean, I feel like these things are always pretty competitive.

I mean, I don't I'm not under the impression that this is a more competitive holiday season than last holiday season, for instance. I mean, I feel like these things are always pretty competitive.

But yeah, you know, there's inventors there.

But yeah, you know, there's inventors there.

I guess that the question, the bigger question is how much of a macro tell are any of these stories given the fact that there are winners, but there are some pretty big losers who are appointing to competition, who are appointing to a real unwillingness for consumers to buy things if the prices are perceived as too higher of the quality isn't received as enough.

I guess that the question, the bigger question is how much of a macro tell are any of these stories given the fact that there are winners, but there are some pretty big losers who are appointing to competition, who are appointing to a real unwillingness for consumers to buy things if the prices are perceived as too higher of the quality isn't received as enough.

Yeah, I think the macro reave has been really tricky. I think because you had a period last quarter when the dollar stores did really, really poorly, and that would seem to have reflected.

Yeah, I think the macro reave has been really tricky. I think because you had a period last quarter when the dollar stores did really, really poorly, and that would seem to have reflected.

Hey, you're having a lot of pressure on that lower end consumer.

Hey, you're having a lot of pressure on that lower end consumer.

But that's saying in that same period Walmart did great, and you know they were you know, there was some discussion, well, that's just because people are trading down to Walmart, and that's that is actually all bad news.

But that's saying in that same period Walmart did great, and you know they were you know, there was some discussion, well, that's just because people are trading down to Walmart, and that's that is actually all bad news.

I have my lower and consumer under pressure.

I have my lower and consumer under pressure.

I've met medium and high income consumer having to trade down and didn't need to be worried about that. But then you get your retail sales numbers and they're okay. And I think this gets back to you know, you know John's question, which is economic growth is fine, but it is slowing down to a level where you're going to get some good results, you're going to get some bad results, and that's going to kind of create volatility in the market and you just kind of need to excuse me, you need to risk risk manage around that a little bit.

I've met medium and high income consumer having to trade down and didn't need to be worried about that. But then you get your retail sales numbers and they're okay. And I think this gets back to you know, you know John's question, which is economic growth is fine, but it is slowing down to a level where you're going to get some good results, you're going to get some bad results, and that's going to kind of create volatility in the market and you just kind of need to excuse me, you need to risk risk manage around that a little bit.

Is there more though anecdotes that more and more consumers are trading down and potentially that's the start of something bigger.

Is there more though anecdotes that more and more consumers are trading down and potentially that's the start of something bigger.

It does feel that way, but I mean I can think back to last all the previous to August August twenty twenty three, when you had some you know, weak data out of some of the retailers on their on their private label credit cards, and folks were saying, this is the moment. You know, these private level credit cards are under under pressure and credit balances are rising.

It does feel that way, but I mean I can think back to last all the previous to August August twenty twenty three, when you had some you know, weak data out of some of the retailers on their on their private label credit cards, and folks were saying, this is the moment. You know, these private level credit cards are under under pressure and credit balances are rising.

So I mean the.

So I mean the.

Anecdotes, yes, they are stacking up, but I feel like people have been trying to fade this for an extended period of time, and it's always been a little bit too early. So you know, I think, yes, yes, yes, the anecdotes are stacking up, but I'm not sure that that's, you know, out of the blue. I think this is something people have been expecting. It has been kind of an ongoing process, and we're just gonna have to, I hate to say, just wait on the data.

Anecdotes, yes, they are stacking up, but I feel like people have been trying to fade this for an extended period of time, and it's always been a little bit too early. So you know, I think, yes, yes, yes, the anecdotes are stacking up, but I'm not sure that that's, you know, out of the blue. I think this is something people have been expecting. It has been kind of an ongoing process, and we're just gonna have to, I hate to say, just wait on the data.

At this point.

At this point.

Jobless Claims has been a great example of the same thing. So many headfakes of the last compless summits. We're coming into September oc Tiber. Every single time we're waiting for this thing to slow down, and then it just doesn't happen.

Jobless Claims has been a great example of the same thing. So many headfakes of the last compless summits. We're coming into September oc Tiber. Every single time we're waiting for this thing to slow down, and then it just doesn't happen.

Too.

Too.

It's good to see you. Thank you, have a happy thanksgiving you to catching up with this. Thank you, Stu. A kinds of that of City tending to Tenessla California Conveny, I can have a new some excluding Elon Musk Company from a proposal that would oft for EV rebates to buy us if a federal subsidy is repealed. Newsom's office telling Bloomberg it's due to the plan's market share limitations must call in the proposal insane. In a post on x, Danas of wet Buss saying this, with the majority of evs sold in California being Tesla's, this would be a risky political move in our view. Dan joins us from more thank in Morning Creazy to be here. Do you agree it's insane?

It's good to see you. Thank you, have a happy thanksgiving you to catching up with this. Thank you, Stu. A kinds of that of City tending to Tenessla California Conveny, I can have a new some excluding Elon Musk Company from a proposal that would oft for EV rebates to buy us if a federal subsidy is repealed. Newsom's office telling Bloomberg it's due to the plan's market share limitations must call in the proposal insane. In a post on x, Danas of wet Buss saying this, with the majority of evs sold in California being Tesla's, this would be a risky political move in our view. Dan joins us from more thank in Morning Creazy to be here. Do you agree it's insane?

Look, yeah, Jig, Paul and Tyson, now you got news and Musk. I mean, this is going to be a battle, right like, and.

Look, yeah, Jig, Paul and Tyson, now you got news and Musk. I mean, this is going to be a battle, right like, and.

Ultimately it's a political battle.

Ultimately it's a political battle.

But the only evs that are made in California Tasselas. So if you ALTERO, if they actually go down this path, I believe this could be some threat to where more and more jobs moved from Freemont to sex Coustin.

But the only evs that are made in California Tasselas. So if you ALTERO, if they actually go down this path, I believe this could be some threat to where more and more jobs moved from Freemont to sex Coustin.

But at the end of the.

But at the end of the.

Day, federal attacks, as we've talked about, that's going to get ripped away.

Day, federal attacks, as we've talked about, that's going to get ripped away.

That's bullsh for Tesla. You're just going to see this back and forth.

That's bullsh for Tesla. You're just going to see this back and forth.

Before we get into that, let's just take into this relationship what it's behind it. We know what was behind it with Biden. What this basically came down to was union workers not being a tenser in a way that they were at GM and Ford. What's this one about?

Before we get into that, let's just take into this relationship what it's behind it. We know what was behind it with Biden. What this basically came down to was union workers not being a tenser in a way that they were at GM and Ford. What's this one about?

Look, I think first of all, I mean Musk was iced out of the Biden administration per year.

Look, I think first of all, I mean Musk was iced out of the Biden administration per year.

I was really focused on Detroit and from the GM four.

I was really focused on Detroit and from the GM four.

Another's if you look here is that there's regulars. There's a beef qlearly between Musk Newsome. But essentially what this is really about is that you're going to have these tax pap from a federal perspective taken away. California clearly trying to do something.

Another's if you look here is that there's regulars. There's a beef qlearly between Musk Newsome. But essentially what this is really about is that you're going to have these tax pap from a federal perspective taken away. California clearly trying to do something.

To stop there. But the reality is is that this ran.

To stop there. But the reality is is that this ran.

The money ran out on this program in California.

The money ran out on this program in California.

So Dan, this is important. The support at a federal level is clearly with Elon Musk. At a state level, in places like California, it looks like because of this tension he's losing it. How important is that relationship of both the state and level when it comes to things like autonomus driving state.

So Dan, this is important. The support at a federal level is clearly with Elon Musk. At a state level, in places like California, it looks like because of this tension he's losing it. How important is that relationship of both the state and level when it comes to things like autonomus driving state.

We view it as much less than from a federal perspective because the golden goose here is autonomous. You know, we believe the autonomous piece is worth a trillion dollars alone to Tesla. Federal regulatory spiderweb essentially gets ripped away, and I think that's significant. Now California, Newsom queerly will try to fight some of the autonomous, some of the unsupervised FSD, but this is going to be something that's really going to continue. But I believe Tesla is going to have significant sort of room to what I view is elevate themselves within autonomous and that's.

We view it as much less than from a federal perspective because the golden goose here is autonomous. You know, we believe the autonomous piece is worth a trillion dollars alone to Tesla. Federal regulatory spiderweb essentially gets ripped away, and I think that's significant. Now California, Newsom queerly will try to fight some of the autonomous, some of the unsupervised FSD, but this is going to be something that's really going to continue. But I believe Tesla is going to have significant sort of room to what I view is elevate themselves within autonomous and that's.

Really what I believe is the key to this Tesla story.

Really what I believe is the key to this Tesla story.

It's about AI and autonomous what Newsom's doing here when it comes to California, this is essentially almost a side show to the broader story here with Tesla, which is why it's really been a Cinderella story since Trump got in because of the must bet.

It's about AI and autonomous what Newsom's doing here when it comes to California, this is essentially almost a side show to the broader story here with Tesla, which is why it's really been a Cinderella story since Trump got in because of the must bet.

But when it comes to autonomous driving and the federal regulations, it's a light switch.

But when it comes to autonomous driving and the federal regulations, it's a light switch.

This has to go through Congress.

This has to go through Congress.

Elon Musk and his proximity to power cannot just basically get this over the finish.

Elon Musk and his proximity to power cannot just basically get this over the finish.

Line of course not in itself, but could move it significantly toward the finish line. So okay, he gets into the two yard line. Right now, it's at the forty yard line. Okay, fifty midfield, so he gets to a two yard line. But that's also why with the red sweep and just relative to what we see with coming out of the beltwayh you know, being there over the last week, we feel like there's a ground swell for autonomous, but no doubt when it comes to EVS, you.

Line of course not in itself, but could move it significantly toward the finish line. So okay, he gets into the two yard line. Right now, it's at the forty yard line. Okay, fifty midfield, so he gets to a two yard line. But that's also why with the red sweep and just relative to what we see with coming out of the beltwayh you know, being there over the last week, we feel like there's a ground swell for autonomous, but no doubt when it comes to EVS, you.

Feel there's a ground swell in Congress as well.

Feel there's a ground swell in Congress as well.

I believe there's a groundswell. For the reason I think there's a ground swell based on our of you and what we hear is because of what's happened in China, because China is now going so far ahead of the US when it comes to autonomous because of the lack of really.

I believe there's a groundswell. For the reason I think there's a ground swell based on our of you and what we hear is because of what's happened in China, because China is now going so far ahead of the US when it comes to autonomous because of the lack of really.

Regulatory spider web.

Regulatory spider web.

That's why Trump, you have an ais are come in, But who's going to be From an AI's our perspective, Musk is going to have have a front row seat to really everything here. And that's why it continues to be the poker bet for the ages for Musk.

That's why Trump, you have an ais are come in, But who's going to be From an AI's our perspective, Musk is going to have have a front row seat to really everything here. And that's why it continues to be the poker bet for the ages for Musk.

You betting on Trump.

You betting on Trump.

So basically, and this sort of goes to the heart in some ways of the beef between Newsom and Musk.

So basically, and this sort of goes to the heart in some ways of the beef between Newsom and Musk.

The idea that it's one thing to.

The idea that it's one thing to.

Be transactional in your policies if you're in the White House in your Washington, DC. It's another for sitting at the state and the White House will probably trump that. There is just a question of how far that will go. Do you actually believe that there will be policies crafted specifically to benefit Tesla over some of the rivals in the United States because of Musk's closeness to the White House.

Be transactional in your policies if you're in the White House in your Washington, DC. It's another for sitting at the state and the White House will probably trump that. There is just a question of how far that will go. Do you actually believe that there will be policies crafted specifically to benefit Tesla over some of the rivals in the United States because of Musk's closeness to the White House.

I think, look clearly, well, Tesla is just a much different situation relative to Autonomous. So they at first that they have the scale and scope on EV so you pull the tax credit, gives them a huge advantage is relative to federal subsidies, but aren't autonomous.

I think, look clearly, well, Tesla is just a much different situation relative to Autonomous. So they at first that they have the scale and scope on EV so you pull the tax credit, gives them a huge advantage is relative to federal subsidies, but aren't autonomous.

It's their world. Everyone else pays rent along with Weymouth.

It's their world. Everyone else pays rent along with Weymouth.

So when you look at this relative to other auto makers, they're essential almost going to have to license from Tessa when it comes to the state level. You look in Newsom, look does this end up in a UFC fight?

So when you look at this relative to other auto makers, they're essential almost going to have to license from Tessa when it comes to the state level. You look in Newsom, look does this end up in a UFC fight?

I don't know.

I don't know.

I mean, this is going to continue to play.

I mean, this is going to continue to play.

Out between this beef Newsom and Musk.

Out between this beef Newsom and Musk.

This goes beyond just Tesla. There was a report out of the Information saying that Google CEO called Donald Trump and Elon Musk was on the phone with him and he.

This goes beyond just Tesla. There was a report out of the Information saying that Google CEO called Donald Trump and Elon Musk was on the phone with him and he.

Was surprised by that.

Was surprised by that.

You talk about.

You talk about.

Space and some of the space exploration and what's going to happen with the NASA budget, how much can you extrapolate out that the Musk halo is really something that you have to sort of get on the bandwagon as as an investor, simply because there are going to be certain policies that will just to facto benefit him because of his closeness with the president.

Space and some of the space exploration and what's going to happen with the NASA budget, how much can you extrapolate out that the Musk halo is really something that you have to sort of get on the bandwagon as as an investor, simply because there are going to be certain policies that will just to facto benefit him because of his closeness with the president.

I mean, I think you said as best as I can say. I mean this Musk and Trump, this is not going away. I actually see this something that's going to continue to expand, and it's going to be from China tariff discussions.

I mean, I think you said as best as I can say. I mean this Musk and Trump, this is not going away. I actually see this something that's going to continue to expand, and it's going to be from China tariff discussions.

When you look musk.

When you look musk.

Ability in terms of President g and his relationship there, when it comes to AI, when it comes to autonomous EV's.

Ability in terms of President g and his relationship there, when it comes to AI, when it comes to autonomous EV's.

That's why it comes down to Detroit. Musk, he wasn't at the cool kids table.

That's why it comes down to Detroit. Musk, he wasn't at the cool kids table.

Now there's a knock at the door at Delon and I think that's really the issue right now that's starting to happen is that everyone's starting to realize that this Musk Trump alliance is going to continue in a lot of ways. Newsom's clearly trying to get into that, but I continue to believe that's probably gonna be a battle he'll ultimately lose because you continue going down that path. Okay, more jobs go from Fremont to Austin. Oh and second thought, maybe we won't exclude him.

Now there's a knock at the door at Delon and I think that's really the issue right now that's starting to happen is that everyone's starting to realize that this Musk Trump alliance is going to continue in a lot of ways. Newsom's clearly trying to get into that, but I continue to believe that's probably gonna be a battle he'll ultimately lose because you continue going down that path. Okay, more jobs go from Fremont to Austin. Oh and second thought, maybe we won't exclude him.

So this is Tensa in California. You also come at GM. What's your reaction to the terrace that's been threatened on Mexico on Canada, given that we know that these automakers have kind of presence sounds of the border.

So this is Tensa in California. You also come at GM. What's your reaction to the terrace that's been threatened on Mexico on Canada, given that we know that these automakers have kind of presence sounds of the border.

I mean, if you're married right now, Mary Barr, I mean, here it is. You have Musk that's going to be front row on Trump. Now, you got these tariffs. I mean you took about heartburn from a GM perspective, Well for a company right now, that's actually I think it's some of the best execution that I've seen.

I mean, if you're married right now, Mary Barr, I mean, here it is. You have Musk that's going to be front row on Trump. Now, you got these tariffs. I mean you took about heartburn from a GM perspective, Well for a company right now, that's actually I think it's some of the best execution that I've seen.

You've still got an out perform on the stuff.

You've still got an out perform on the stuff.

Because because to me, if you look at execution, I still don't believe the stock is getting the right value relative.

Because because to me, if you look at execution, I still don't believe the stock is getting the right value relative.

To how exposed are they vote to this tarrast story. And if it goes through with it, can you still put an outperform on that stuff?

To how exposed are they vote to this tarrast story. And if it goes through with it, can you still put an outperform on that stuff?

They're exposed. We got to see how as it all plays out.

They're exposed. We got to see how as it all plays out.

I continue to think that Bark will be a little worse than the bite, you know, in terms of as.

I continue to think that Bark will be a little worse than the bite, you know, in terms of as.

It all plays out.

It all plays out.

But for GM, for a company that's humming right now, it's kind of been a little one two punch in that three wine three area.

But for GM, for a company that's humming right now, it's kind of been a little one two punch in that three wine three area.

Coulde such a m the anymason I put up GM, it's not about a taris. It's about F one expanding the grid to an left of the team. You went to Venkas over the weekend. What was your impression of thinks?

Coulde such a m the anymason I put up GM, it's not about a taris. It's about F one expanding the grid to an left of the team. You went to Venkas over the weekend. What was your impression of thinks?

I mean, after my first F one so influence in the book that was that was just an epic we in terms of just being experienced F one being part of the Ferrari team there, it was just an unbelievable experience. I recommend everyone you know, I went from the Netflix. I went from Pharaoh to the Netflix shows an influencer.

I mean, after my first F one so influence in the book that was that was just an epic we in terms of just being experienced F one being part of the Ferrari team there, it was just an unbelievable experience. I recommend everyone you know, I went from the Netflix. I went from Pharaoh to the Netflix shows an influencer.

Now he's an isn't it. He's actually an F one influencer.

Now he's an isn't it. He's actually an F one influencer.

So I went from Pharaoh to the Netflix show to go into a net forn race. Next thing, I know, I could be a monarcha you never know where that's gonna go.

So I went from Pharaoh to the Netflix show to go into a net forn race. Next thing, I know, I could be a monarcha you never know where that's gonna go.

You was signed up member of the FOCI. Now you're a Ferrari fan.

You was signed up member of the FOCI. Now you're a Ferrari fan.

I am signed up Ferrari fan.

I am signed up Ferrari fan.

Now it's and now it starts with Penn Steep.

Now it's and now it starts with Penn Steep.

But now Ferrari is part of that.

But now Ferrari is part of that.

Okay, that's quite a contrast Penn state and it's.

Okay, that's quite a contrast Penn state and it's.

But you're talking about both.

But you're talking about both.

You bomb out, you barbel the strategy. Thank you, it's going to see it was a web past. Thank you, sir. Here's the lass this morning. Holiday shopping expected to break records this year, signaling just how much higher prices are impact and consumer spending. Neia Richardson of a DP Research institute, writing, high prices could dim holiday chap for a long time. Wage growth for hourly employees was outpaced by inflation. NATA joins us now for more NATA always great to see you, welcome back, thank you. What's the outlook suspending this holiday shop in season?

You bomb out, you barbel the strategy. Thank you, it's going to see it was a web past. Thank you, sir. Here's the lass this morning. Holiday shopping expected to break records this year, signaling just how much higher prices are impact and consumer spending. Neia Richardson of a DP Research institute, writing, high prices could dim holiday chap for a long time. Wage growth for hourly employees was outpaced by inflation. NATA joins us now for more NATA always great to see you, welcome back, thank you. What's the outlook suspending this holiday shop in season?

Well, the outlook for spending is that record highs. The National Retail Federation expects consumers to spend nine hundred dollars per person per family this year. That's up like fifteen dollars from last year. So strong spending this year is expected. But the problem is we're on a knife edge when it comes to wage growth versus inflation. In fact, we only expect for hourly wages, hourly workers, which are the well sixty percent of the labor market, we only expect their wages to tread just above CPI inflation, So that's like thirty basis points. So as prices are going higher, wages aren't keeping up.

Well, the outlook for spending is that record highs. The National Retail Federation expects consumers to spend nine hundred dollars per person per family this year. That's up like fifteen dollars from last year. So strong spending this year is expected. But the problem is we're on a knife edge when it comes to wage growth versus inflation. In fact, we only expect for hourly wages, hourly workers, which are the well sixty percent of the labor market, we only expect their wages to tread just above CPI inflation, So that's like thirty basis points. So as prices are going higher, wages aren't keeping up.

How big is the spread between how consumers say they fail versus how much they do because how they fail has been pretty awful for quite a while now. But then I look at retoul sounds, and retail sounds are still really robust. What do you think explains that labor markets?

How big is the spread between how consumers say they fail versus how much they do because how they fail has been pretty awful for quite a while now. But then I look at retoul sounds, and retail sounds are still really robust. What do you think explains that labor markets?

Because even though wages are just keeping up with inflation right now, people are employed. If you look at layoffs, they're very, very low. There's not this threat and pending threat of doom when it comes to what's going to happen after the holidays, will they still have their jobs? For many workers, they still feel confident about the labor market. What they lack confidence is in prices. They keep going up higher and they're already at high levels, and that's what's changing the game in terms of sentiment.

Because even though wages are just keeping up with inflation right now, people are employed. If you look at layoffs, they're very, very low. There's not this threat and pending threat of doom when it comes to what's going to happen after the holidays, will they still have their jobs? For many workers, they still feel confident about the labor market. What they lack confidence is in prices. They keep going up higher and they're already at high levels, and that's what's changing the game in terms of sentiment.

Has there been a behavioral shift or people are being paid, they are employed, and yet they're not levering up. The people still have the specter, whether it's the financial crisis, whether it's just simply this time of high inflation and feelings like you need to get your personal finances under control. You're not seeing credit card delinquencies pick up in a miss material way.

Has there been a behavioral shift or people are being paid, they are employed, and yet they're not levering up. The people still have the specter, whether it's the financial crisis, whether it's just simply this time of high inflation and feelings like you need to get your personal finances under control. You're not seeing credit card delinquencies pick up in a miss material way.

Is or message from that I think they're as First of all, consumers are being a little sharper about their finances. But you know, we can't go too overboard and optimism with the low delinquencies relative to the past.

Is or message from that I think they're as First of all, consumers are being a little sharper about their finances. But you know, we can't go too overboard and optimism with the low delinquencies relative to the past.

We have to also look at savings.

We have to also look at savings.

Rates, which are also low. So we're in this purgatory, if you will, in terms of consumer balance sheets. They're getting by, but they're living paycheck to paycheck. They're not putting away savings at the same rate that they used to. Credit Card delinquencies aren't picking up yet. So yes, this is a happy period for the consumer, but it is again a sensitive period. You don't know what could sway the consumer into more debt and into less savings than they have been.

Rates, which are also low. So we're in this purgatory, if you will, in terms of consumer balance sheets. They're getting by, but they're living paycheck to paycheck. They're not putting away savings at the same rate that they used to. Credit Card delinquencies aren't picking up yet. So yes, this is a happy period for the consumer, but it is again a sensitive period. You don't know what could sway the consumer into more debt and into less savings than they have been.

It's taken a long time for the average worker to catch up, to catch up to inflation, and they feel like they've been left behind, and we've seen that increasingly. John was talking about the sentiment surveys.

It's taken a long time for the average worker to catch up, to catch up to inflation, and they feel like they've been left behind, and we've seen that increasingly. John was talking about the sentiment surveys.

Have people caught up?

Have people caught up?

What would it take?

What would it take?

So what would it take.

So what would it take.

For them to catch up in a mature way with wage gains that could put them at least on the same track they were or relatively close as pre pandemic.

For them to catch up in a mature way with wage gains that could put them at least on the same track they were or relatively close as pre pandemic.

Look, we look at data all the time at ADP. We're looking at hourlay workers. I was just reviewing fourteen million hourly workers in their average pay. For the better part of the last four years, the worker has been underwater, meaning their wage growth is not keeping up with the inflation that they're seeing in retail, in consumer price inflation, So we haven't kept up in general as a workforce. There is pockets of light. Now we're finally starting to see a little bit of an increase in wage growth above CPI inflation, but it's tenuous, it's vulnerable, and anything could trigger a reversal in that wage growth versus CPI. So no, the worker is not keeping pace. Consumption is being led by wealthy, more affluent households, and the average worker is still trying to keep up. That's why you're seeing lower savings rates yet not spilling over into delinquencies. And that's going to be the barometer to watch about the health of the consumer.

Look, we look at data all the time at ADP. We're looking at hourlay workers. I was just reviewing fourteen million hourly workers in their average pay. For the better part of the last four years, the worker has been underwater, meaning their wage growth is not keeping up with the inflation that they're seeing in retail, in consumer price inflation, So we haven't kept up in general as a workforce. There is pockets of light. Now we're finally starting to see a little bit of an increase in wage growth above CPI inflation, but it's tenuous, it's vulnerable, and anything could trigger a reversal in that wage growth versus CPI. So no, the worker is not keeping pace. Consumption is being led by wealthy, more affluent households, and the average worker is still trying to keep up. That's why you're seeing lower savings rates yet not spilling over into delinquencies. And that's going to be the barometer to watch about the health of the consumer.

Yet they're spending more this holiday season and December last year inflation was north of three percent. The prior Christmas it was north of six percent. Is there this idea that the consumers also just getting more.

Yet they're spending more this holiday season and December last year inflation was north of three percent. The prior Christmas it was north of six percent. Is there this idea that the consumers also just getting more.

Used to inflation.

Used to inflation.

Well, they are certainly spending like it. I mean, they don't like inflation. They may rally against inflation when it comes to our sentiment severs, but it hasn't dented the enthusiasm in spending. What consumers want now is cheaper prices very quickly. Goods were used to real time consumption, and they're getting that right now after the holidays. It'll be a good benchmark for the real status of the consumer. People tend to go over their skis a little bit during the holidays. Will they pull back in January? Will companies pull back in January? That's what we'll be looking for.

Well, they are certainly spending like it. I mean, they don't like inflation. They may rally against inflation when it comes to our sentiment severs, but it hasn't dented the enthusiasm in spending. What consumers want now is cheaper prices very quickly. Goods were used to real time consumption, and they're getting that right now after the holidays. It'll be a good benchmark for the real status of the consumer. People tend to go over their skis a little bit during the holidays. Will they pull back in January? Will companies pull back in January? That's what we'll be looking for.

You said that some of the gains are really fragile and that they could be derailed.

You said that some of the gains are really fragile and that they could be derailed.

What would derail them well, higher prices, higher prices, and if consumers or businesses who are betting on lower interest rates going into the new year don't get that bet realized. There's indications that inflation is sticky. It's not moving down in the street line that was expected. If we see a stalling in the interest rates, if consumer credit becomes more expensive, if it costs more for consumers to borrow to buy cars, which are also seeing some price growth to fun purchases, then that could stall some of their spending behavior.

What would derail them well, higher prices, higher prices, and if consumers or businesses who are betting on lower interest rates going into the new year don't get that bet realized. There's indications that inflation is sticky. It's not moving down in the street line that was expected. If we see a stalling in the interest rates, if consumer credit becomes more expensive, if it costs more for consumers to borrow to buy cars, which are also seeing some price growth to fun purchases, then that could stall some of their spending behavior.

Do you think the Fed hits pause? That's a no food question.

Do you think the Fed hits pause? That's a no food question.

I mean you're hearing a lot of FED speaks suggesting just that there's been no FED speaker that I've heard recently that has come out definitively and said inflation is going in the right track and we're confident enough that we will lower rates in December. There's still uncertainty around that decision.

I mean you're hearing a lot of FED speaks suggesting just that there's been no FED speaker that I've heard recently that has come out definitively and said inflation is going in the right track and we're confident enough that we will lower rates in December. There's still uncertainty around that decision.

It's going to be an interest a few weeks, that's for sure. Native. It's good to see you. Nati Rich is in there of ADP. This is the Bloomberg Seventans podcast. Bringing you the best in markets, economics, angio politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app

It's going to be an interest a few weeks, that's for sure. Native. It's good to see you. Nati Rich is in there of ADP. This is the Bloomberg Seventans podcast. Bringing you the best in markets, economics, angio politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app