Jeff Gennette, Macy's CEO says department stores are still relevant and his company is ready for the holiday shopping season. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Sr. Research Analyst says retailers are starting to embrace AI. Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan Professor of Public Policy & Economics discusses the surprise drop in prices of Thanksgiving dinner. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy Founder says use your credit card points before they lose value.
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Let's get to it.
It is an important conversation on a day devoted to celebrating retail sales. Let's head over to Macy's in New York City's Herald Square, where bloombergs Caroline Hyde is joined by the company's CEO, Jeff Gannett.
Caroline, Lisa, and Gina. Is a joy to be with you with Jeff Gannett. Of course, on a day people que they run in. The celebration is upon US Seal Super Bowl. What are they buying today for Black Friday?
So they're buying everything on their gift list, and they're buying that's really generally in luxury, so fine jewelry, they're buying Kashmere, they're buying outwork for the entire family, Hostess Gifts in our home store, but they're also home prep. We've got great deals as we always do for Black Friday, going all the way through the holiday season.
So we are ready.
We've got all of our key items, you know, loaded to bear. Here we are in Harold's Square. It was a good opening. We had a great day online yesterday during Thanksgiving.
I mean you said that on your earnings, which what what but a week ago? Yes, that this gets earlier and earlier Black Friday. The competition. How important are the next few days and the run up to the holidays.
Oh, it's still very important.
So you know, when you think about kind of Black Friday deals really started it right after Halloween is when they started. But this is still a pilgrimage you've got you know, America is traveling, and they are in homes, and they're coming into stores just like this one today. They're online. They've been online all the way through. So it's very very important. So when we look at kind of Black Friday through Cyber Week, then we go into a lull. It's like ten days where people kind of reset, and then those last ten days become increasingly important. So it's one of the three stages right now that we are at the kind of the Christmas shopping is when we're in right now.
First, what, of course your earnings showed so clearly is that it's about inventory management in many ways at the moment, and you've been managed and to ace that, how are you ensuring you've got the right thing in the right time for a consumer that basically we're all trying to understand right now.
So obviously the consumer's under pressure, but they still love gifts, and so we want to make sure that we've got all the right gifts and we've got all the right stock content in them. So I just walked this entire store to really understand where we are in all of the content across all of our categories, and we're in great shape. And that's really in tribute to the amount of work we've been putting in an inventory control.
And when it comes to online versus in store. In retail, this is how you've been shifting the company. In particular, people aren't perhaps having the footfall in mals, they're coming to one off stores, they're going to smaller stall experiences. But e commerce has just been the focus. How are you managing to be at the right time, in the right place for an omni channel purchase.
So really there's the strength of Macy's and Bloomingdales and bloom Mercuries that we're omni channel and we're omni category. So what you have is you have customers that are shopping online, they want to come into a store and try it on and maybe are transacting on the couch later that night. So the opportunity to make it as convenient for the customer as possible, however and whenever they want to shop. So that's our beauty and doing that with a national footprint with a great website is what we depend on.
And of course why you've got such a great birdside perspective, because you do have Bloomingdale's for the higher and more luxury purchaser and then more income breadth. When it comes to Macy's, what are we seeing in terms of the consumer? Are they going to be spending more? Are they going to be putting back?
So you do have customers that are under pressure. And so when you think about the inflation is still high. It's abating from the change at the inflation rate from last year, but it's still higher than it was last year, and customers have got a limited budget, some of it they're spending and inexperiences, and then in our discretionary categories, so we want to make sure that we've got the right price points across that entire spectrum. But you still give gifts, and this is where Macy's and Bloomingdale's and Bloomercrey shine. So when you have this gift somebody on your gift list, we're going to have the right content for you at the right price point. And we spend from when Black Friday ends to where we are right now. We've been spending the year getting ready for that, and we do trial runs in Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, Father's Day to make sure we've got.
The right gifts.
You're ready, You're ready. People are worried, Analysts might be worried that you're kind of managing decline at the moment. What would you say to a comment like that.
Look, I think that if we weren't an apartment store today, we would invent one. So the idea about having multi categories being able to do that in multi channels, we now have been able to get new categories and as a result of Marketplace, which is now online at both Bloomingdales and in Macy's. So I bet on department stores and obviously I made my career doing this and it is a you know, it's still very very relevant. You know, we're obviously looking at where traffic is moving from on mall to off mall. We're obviously testing that in both Bloomingdale's with the Bloomys format and with Macy's with Macy's and so we're going to be ready for where the customer is evolving, and we've got very strong assets to be able to do that, both on mall and obviously.
Online evolving into a world where we're all using chatbots and artificient intelligence at front and center, and these are sort of areas of investment.
Yes, absolutely, because when you think about AI and machine learning, think about when we have forty million customers at Macy's four million of Bloomingdals.
We know them very well.
So to have all that data and be able to start to personalize content and values for those customers is where this is all going. How do you make your brand more relevant? And that is at a customer level. It's no longer broad based promotion. It's the opportunity to be able to I know, Caroline, and based on what you buy, what you might be interested in them and to be able to serve that up in the way you want it served up is really the secret of success for an omni channel retailer going forward.
You, of course just mentioned throughout your career this is what you've been doing. For those who don't realize, you've worked at the Macy's Brown for more than forty years and this is your last Black Friday, and of course CEOs that's twenty seventeen. You have been thought of as a turnaround focus, the polarist, the way in which you have thought about personalization, e commas and whether to of course the COVID in and of itself. Do you feel that you've got the plate Macy's where you want it to be as you look towards as being your last Black Friday?
Yeah, Look, when I.
Reflect back on my career, and certainly in my time in CEO, I didn' accomplish everything that was on my list. But look, the focus on relevant content, on amazing values, and on customer experience is clearly the path forward. And I couldn't be more excited about my successor who was more than ready to be able to do this. He knocked the cover off the ball with respect to Bloomingdale's and what he was able to do there. How he was able to kind of help turn around the strategy of Bloe Mercury. He's now going to do that for Macy's Inc. So he's got a good game plan and he's going to make it better.
Jeff Cannette, we thank you so much for spending time with us on what is your last Black Friday, But still got a few more days in there, and of course the job. He's here until February as the CEO and CEO elect Tony Spring. But with that we sent him back to you in the studio.
Thank you so much.
Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde and macy CEO Jeff Gannett on his last Black Friday on the floor talking about the importance of gifts, joining us to give us his review of the scene from White Plains. Joe Feldman, Senior Research Analyst and Assistant director of Research at tells the advisory group, this is sort of the tradition. You wake up early, I assume, and you go out to see what's going on in different stores. Can you just give us a rundown of what your first take is this year.
Yeah, so I did get up early, as you said, part of the tradition.
And it was very quiet out there. I was in a best Buy and a Target.
So far, not too many stores are open yet, you know, Best Buy, Target, Dick Sporting Goods were all open around six am. And the traffic is like they're all ready for the Black Friday day. You know, their well stocked. The signage was great, a lot of employees in the store, just not a lot of people yet. And I think that's because you can get a lot of the goods in those prices earlier. I mean, you could have gotten yesterday online, you could have gone in the past week really, and a lot of these stores they started their Black Friday sales much earlier than we've seen in the past. And I think that that's, you know, just elogating the season and also less of a rush to get out first thing in the morning for that doorbuster.
Joe, I want to really key in on this idea that many of the retailers are not open yet, because my recollection is over the last couple of years we were extending the opening hours among retail We had a lot of retailers even opening a few years ago on Thanksgiving as opposed to waiting to open early on Black Friday. What's the change here? Is it really just the overall extension of the season and the advent of online retail as a really critical component of our shopping strategy. Or is there a labor component to this? Is there something to do with lack of labor, lack of available labor and also some pushback from labor as to what they're willing to do.
You know, I think that's a great point, because I do think that labor isn't component here where you know, the retailers have decided that you know, look, given the volumes that they've seen in the past couple of years, and maybe it's better to treat their employees better and you know, maybe not have everybody out at midnight on Black Friday or even you know at the end of you know, six at six pm on Thanksgiving like we saw several years ago, you know, where the traffic end of the store just wasn't enough to warrant a spending on the labor and be you know, giving labor a break and giving that the store employees a chance to rest and enjoy the holiday with their families and then come and refresh for the next day. I do think that by elongating the season that helped alleviate some of that stress and puts less emphasis on just this Black Friday along. I do think we're going to see a pretty decent day in the malls later and out in the stores and for the whole weekend. But again, you know, it's just a longer period that we're seeing.
Okay, so a decent day that today, a decent weekend potentially, what does that mean for that longer period? What are you expecting for holiday sales. We had a pretty good conversation with Wells Fargo earlier this morning. They're looking at five percent retail sales growth, which frankly doesn't sound too bad given long term average pace of sales growth this time of year is about four. That sounds pretty decent, pretty optimistic. What are you a TELS group thinking, Yeah, the.
Five percent is a little bit optimistic, but we've seen quite a few people with you know, estamate somewhere in that three to five percent area. At Tells the Advisor, our formal estimate is three and a half to four percent. We did it two ways. We looked at it bottom up, just like looking at all the forecasts for the companies. We also looked down at top down, just looking at the macro data of all the US government retail sales three.
And a half four percent.
We felt like, as you said, that four percent or so is kind of the long term average.
And it feels like this is going to be a bit more of a normal year like that.
So, Joe, I got to be honest.
The main topic of discussion at my household for Thanksgiving was genitor of A and I and how it's going to transform our world. I know it sounds like it's scintillating a holiday discussion, but I'm curious from your vantage.
Polisa has a particularly nerdy house.
It's okay, I ambracive, but I'm curious. You know how much that's changing the way people stop. I mean, given the fact that a third of people responded to the survey that I was reading are using some generative AI to figure out how to shop. I mean, how is this shifting the way that some of these companies really try to cater to their customers.
So I think the retailers are starting to embrace it. It still feels very early for it though, and the quality of the generative AI the responses you get is somewhat mixed. But the retailers are working aggressively to try to help you do things more efficiently for their own organizations and also serve the customer better. You know, if you think about the chatbots that you get when you go online, or you know, maybe if the large language model generative AI have more natural responses and better quality responses.
I think that's coming.
It's not quite here yet, but people are embracing it, and I think that the retailers are all trying to get there, but it's really I think a couple of years.
Away before we're going to see a major impact from it.
Although if you take a step further, Joe, there was something else, you know, just sort of in the catastrophic rate realm of time, which is also you know, it makes dinners really exciting. I'm curious about, you know, what this means for the employment picture. We're talking about labor, and it's actually very much connected to what you were just talking about with Gina. You know, you don't have to pay a robot to work during the holidays. How much is there this feeling of you know, cash registers that are self checkout, different programs that can do personal shopping for you. I mean, there's an evolution to this that can really cut back some of the base costs for these retailers. How much are we seeing that in the stores at this point?
At this point, I think it's still relatively low because of that particular technology generator d AI. But I do think that we have seen technology reduced costs for retailers to make them run more efficiently.
We've seen, as you mentioned, you.
Know, automated self checkout, your assisted self checkout. Now you can have one person manning five or six registers at the same time. You know, it's a lot more efficient, and then you can get people onto the floor to help the customers. You can stalk the aisles better, so there's a lot that you could do. And then on the back end and just on the supply chain side, there's so much you can do now. Retailers have been embracing AI and machine learning for years. The generative part is where it's new, and that's still yet to come. And you know, my understanding is a lot of the retails are they're still staffing up you know, they still need the people to even be able to harness it and the data, you know, the software engineers to really write the code and to really embrace it. And you know, I do think there's an important element here where people are so crucial to the system because it does create those jobs for people, you know, maybe more skilled labor on the software engineering side. Also within the store, you still want customer facing people. You still want people to help the customer, and so I think it just changes the tasks for labor within the store rather than necessarily cut labor tooth thin.
Joe, can we talk a little bit about the broader competitive landscape for a retailer right now? Because I'm struck by this idea that consumers are still very focused on experiences, on spending on certain visus ongoing to restaurants. How are retailers thinking about not just their competition with their fellow retail but their general competition for consumer dollars in an environment where consumers are clearly preferring to go and spend on services relative to goods.
Yeah, you know, I think the retails are doing two things.
One is they're trying to create a more exciting environment and more more of an experience itself within the store, or if you're shopping online, have a more more efficient experience, a better fun experience, want of discovery, treasure hunted to some extent at some stores.
The other part is innovation.
Whenever we see innovation in product, whether it's you know, apparel, you know, furnishings or electronics, the consumer tends to respond. And so you know, when we have had that innovation, you know, the consumer responds. We're trying to push innovation a little bit more from the retail side, but I do think the retailers have been very prudent in their outlook, understanding that services spending is still you know, recovering actually from where you know, to get back to even pre pandemic levels. So we're not fully there yet. So I think the assumption is that you will see continued spending on services. The retailers are just trying to find a way to create exciting merchandise to get people to buy that at the same time. And that's also why I think we're going to see a decent holiday season, because the consumer has money, they're just spending in different pockets right now. And I think that that selective or choiceful spending, as someone said, you know, is really where you can see that shift.
Now.
The time is, you know, the holiday season, gift giving. I think that's where you're going to see that shift back. You know, maybe come first quarter, you know winter, people want to get away. Travel starts to happen again at school breaks in the February March.
Time for period.
Joe Feldman, thank you so much for being with us. A happy holidays, Joe Feldman of tells the advisory group, thank.
You for being with us.
Justin Wilfer's, professor of economics at the University of Michigan.
Taking a look at Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving distantly saying, well, the cost of living is up, and consumer perception is that everything is more expensive. The price of your holiday dinner actually fell from a year ago. The price of turkey down more than five percent, stuffing down almost three percent, Cranberry's down eighteen percent. Pumpkin pie lovers, though, that price up almost four percent. I did make a pumpkin pie, and actually I did notice that justin joining us now, Justin, it's interesting that.
You put this out.
It seems like, yes, it is interesting just on the face level of Thanksgiving, but there's a deeper message here about kind of where there is disinflation and how that isn't necessarily showing up in consumer sentiment.
What's your take on.
That, Lisa, I'm glad you saw the deeper message. Look, the deeper message was almost a form of performance on I pretended to care about these individual prices. The reality is, if you want to track the cost of living, what you need to do is go and visit hundreds of supermarkets from dozens of cities and sample thousands of goods and have.
Very sophisticated comput to put it all together.
And thank goodness, we have someone who does that for us, called the BLS. And instead, what we get every year and basically every news cycle is some interest group or one side of the political spectrum or another will pretend to obsess and pretend to care about things like the price of turkeys. And actually the graphic you to shout, I think was a beautiful teaching point because it's always the case that whether inflation's two percent or whether it's four percent, that there's a bunch of stuff going up a fair bit. And right there you've got like, ah, that pumpkin pie mix, And I noticed bread rolls are a little bit more expensive too, And you've got a bunch of stuff.
Going down, like the price of fresh cranberries.
Turkey prices are plummeting because you know, the bird flow is a bit behind us, and so trying to tell the story of the whole economy through graphics like this, and I'm not having to go at Bloomberg because you were honest about it, Lisa, but often the major cable networks or not is an absurd way of trying to track the macro economy.
Let's focus on the data instead.
You correctly note that also airline costs are going down, so the cost of services is intriguingly going down year over year on top of the cost of goods going down. In that kind of environment where we are seeing generally prices at least rationalizing from sky high piece of inflation over the last couple of years, why are consumers telling us that they're expecting more inflation going forward.
Well, I think the simplest model of what's going through consumer's mind is minds. They're not running sophisticated models of the form that you are, or that your viewers might be. They're going to the store and so generally one of the best ways of predicting inflation is whatever's currently happening is going to continue to happen, and all the rest of the other stuff, what's going on with import prices or oil prices or the output gap, is just a slight modification of that.
And consumers, of course, also are incredibly.
Responsive to the most salient prices, the most salient prices obviously being gasoline, I think beyond that food and so consumer inflation expectations tend to track those things a little bit too much. Now, the problem with this, of course is what's not st land well, the cost of healthcare, the cost of education. But these things are a huge part of the consumer basket, the cost of housing as well, and so inflation expectations often or perceptions, may not track reality particularly well at important points because we're a little bit too focused on what we see at the store and not what really matters.
So what do you think policymakers are focutfull focus on the perceptions are reality?
Well, every policy maker I talk to it gets told they should look at the darn data. Now, if you're talking about political policy makers, they've got two jobs. One is to figure out what's going on, and the other is to convince the electric to re elect them. Some of the genuinely silliest commentary we get on the economy, including and particularly on inflation, comes from congressional representative because they're always looking for the juiciest, least representative SoundBite that helps their side the most. I worry that if you spend your whole time, all day every day saying, for instance, Biden, inflation has caused the price of dinner rolls to skyrocket, that you might eventually start to believe it. So I think those folks, I really do worry about their view on the economy. Now, I know Jay Powell and our friends at the FED are a little more sophisticated. They're focusing on the real data. They've got folks pouring over every line of those of the CPI, of the PCE and so on, and I think they're telling pretty much the correct story, which is that inflation is moderating. There are good reasons to be optimistic it may moderate. One of the most notable things that has happened over the past year really is that Jay Pallace started to talk about inflation in terms of supply sharks, that's a real optimism that the bad times were due to supply and the supply shocks are behind us, which gives you a whole lot a reason to feel optimistic that the better times are ahead of us.
This sort of speaks to the whole immaculate disinflation idea that it was just a supply shock right siding itself, and that there was this transitory it's sort of back to transitory without saying the.
T word, which they were pilloried for.
How much are we now starting to see demand side pick up?
For that, especially with real wages actually.
Turning positive in a more material way, with how much inflation is coming in.
Well, what really matters for inflation is what's going on with nominal wages. What matters for your quality of life is of course real wages, and nominal wage growth has been you know, fairly moderate, not far off what would normally be consistent with two percent inflation if you think about, you know, inflation plus productivity, and I think, now you've got to have inflation plus productivity plus a little bit of catch up for real wages having not kept up for all of that time, So you know, I see every reason to feel optimistic there's a deep question here is what was I mean, the big question you just asked, Lisa, is is this about apply or is it about demand? But actually on the supply side, is it just a bad supply shock exiting the system? Or maybe are we actually on the cusp of a positive supply shark? Are we seeing productivity rise at levels we haven't seen before? Are we seeing the economy expand without generating inflation?
And we are?
That might be what's going on with the immaculate disinflation. And you might say, hey, what caused this positive supply shark? And I'm going to tell you, Lisa, I've never seen a three year period in my entire history as an economist in which I saw this many businesses reorganized what they did. We really organized the economy at a really fundamental level, everything from work from home to supply chains to global shipping roots. And maybe just maybe that's pushed back the frontier of what's possible. And I'm optimistic that's possible. But I think, perhaps more interestingly for your viewers, I'm definitely hearing a.
Sense from j. Powell and the FED that they're starting to believe that maybe is what's happened?
Are you going to be shocking today?
Justin, Well, I've got a phone and I've got two thumbs and really big wish lists.
I sure well, good luck with all of that. Justin Wolfers, come back again. We love having you on.
Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan. Thank you, and I have a wonderful holiday.
Talking about take profits.
This is really an exciting conversation for me because I have been on a kick that if you don't spend your points now, you're going to lose them. And we've been point savers very much so when it comes to airlines, when it comes to hotels, you save them and you save me save them and it feels good, but it doesn't really. Brian Kelly is here to explain why it's a terrible idea to do what I have done for so long, founder of the Points Guy. Let's talk about points inflation. How real is it?
Well, Lisa, you're not a point saver, You're a points hoarder, and so many Americans are as well. You know, we get anxiety when it comes time to redeem them. It looks really nice to have a lot of points. But here, listen to me. Everyone out there, use your points. You know, the airlines have officially become banks. You know, a lot of airlines are making more money selling their miles to credit card companies than they are by flying planes, which means there's more and more miles in the ecosystem and the amount of miles it takes to travel is real. In fact, Southwest Airlines just announce in twenty twenty four their points are going to be worth less when you redeem them. So key message, use your points. Now, take that cold tart cash that you would have spent on the travel and put it towards other things.
I feel like I have to do some kind of Hi.
My name is Lisa Brownwitz, and I'm a points order. I have a right to improve my standing in the world. Brian, how much you seeing companies have to offer perks have to offer something to really induce customers to come in, especially as you're starting to see discounts to airline prices and hotel prices.
Given people have traveled all they want and now they're kind of pulling back a little.
It.
Yeah, this is actually really good news for consumers because I feel like for the last three years, every time I came on and did segments. It was bad news, you know, rising airfare. Airfare at one point was raising twenty percent month over month, and we thought like six or seven percent inflation was bad. So travelers have been hit the hardest. Finally we're seeing a reprieve in those fares, and the airlines getting hit the worst are the budget you know, domestic carriers, because there's still huge.
Demand for international.
International airfares, especially in business and first class are through the roof. It's domestically where people or where the airlines are having trouble, and we're seeing you know, one hundred and eleven dollar fares to Puerto Rico this winter, you know, sixty nine dollars to Miami. You know two years ago you couldn't fathom sixty nine dollars to go to Miami. It was, you know, as you know, one of the top places to go. So there are good deals out there for consumers right now.
Brian, can you talk a little bit beyond airlines? Where are you seeing the greatest points deflation? I guess these points give you no benefit over time to hoard. Is it beyond airlines? Is it also car points? Points for car rentals, points for hotels, and are there differences between those sectors.
Yeah, so let me car rental programs are pretty much useless. There's been so much consolidation there. There's only one or two main players. You know, with car rental companies, it's more about the perks and getting elite status. So if you've got an AMX Platinum card, you may get elite status with you know, National or Hurts. So that's really where I would say, you know, booking directly with car rental companies, it's all about recognition, not waiting. In that line, the points are pretty meaningless. Hotels are actually pretty valuable. I would say World of Hyatt just one best loyalty program at the point. Sky Awards. Hyatt's a great program. They've been acquiring more hotels and they are a transfer partner of Chase. That's the program that I like using the most. You can easily get two or three cents per point and value. Butt An Area and Hilton are also pretty good programs. But here's my key tip when it comes to loyalty. Don't be loyal to a hotel or an airline. Be loyal to a credit card. The credit card companies are where it's at because you can accrue points and amex, Chase or built and then you transfer them to a number of different partners. And this allows you to not just bank with one airline or hotel. It gives you a lot of different options when it comes time to redeem.
What about the credit cards that aren't giving you points necessarily to spend on travel, But for instance Amazon's credit card which gives you credits to spend back at Amazon, or other credit card companies that give you points to spend at retail how should you be approaching those points systems?
Yeah, if you want cash back, I recommend just getting a straight up cash back card. You know, the City double Cash basically gives two percent back, no annual fee. That's the gold standard. So instead of getting with one retailer that might have some wonky earning. And the Amazon card is pretty good actually for those who shop a lot at Amazon. But instead of just banking with one retailer, get an over a cash back card that gives you flexibility because if you get cold, hard cash, you can use it if you want travel or on anything else.
Versus with just one retailer.
It strikes me that why should any company, why should a delta United American try to cater to their loyal clients. If this really is the business model, if it's really just about them being an arm, a loyalty arms tied to a credit card company, well.
Think about it.
You might only fly a couple times a year, but you're using your co branded credit card every single day.
And that's where I think.
Delta, in their recent earnings said one percent of total GDP spend in America's on a Delta co branded AMEX card. So think about that, even that infrequent traveler, Delta's earning money when you go to the grocery store, when you pay for all your expenses in your life. So it's a brilliant business model to bring people in, to give them these points, and then encourage them to fly on the airline, letting them board early. So I will just say, while there's been devalue euation and currencies, it costs more miles than ever before, you could also earn more miles, you know, and the US is very particular. You can get one hundred thousand points sign up bonuses earning four x five x in certain categories. So not all is lost. You just got to play the game correctly and use the credit cards that reward you where you're spending the most money.
What's the most extravagant trip you've ever taken using only points?
Oh?
Well, I do love ems emrits first class on the eight three eighties and iconic experience. I took my parents on an around the world trip and you know, they've got a big on board on board bar, and my dad and I were drinking I think three hundred dollars a goal.
Okay, Brian is we flew over.
The Pimalayas and it was like two hundred bucks out of pocket and taxes and fees. It was we were getting that first class experience cheaper than what people paid in coach.
And that's why I love points.
All right, Kelly, founder of the Points Guy. We all aspired to be you.
Brian, thank you so much for being with us, flying around the world with his parents drinking three hundred dollars.
Commemorates air.
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You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is Bloomberg