Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We have the right guy at the right time on a five percent nominal GDP ending June thirty. Comedy Stuart Kaiser, I got goosebumps right now.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We have the right guy at the right time on a five percent nominal GDP ending June thirty. Comedy Stuart Kaiser, I got goosebumps right now.

How you were out two years ago saying it will be okay and as I've always said, corporations will adjust in your mind.

How you were out two years ago saying it will be okay and as I've always said, corporations will adjust in your mind.

Away from Andrew Hollandhorst and Veronica Clark, Victoria Clark, are you modeling a slowdown?

Away from Andrew Hollandhorst and Veronica Clark, Victoria Clark, are you modeling a slowdown?

You know, we're we're a little more worried about it than we have been probably in the last eighteen months. I would say, you know, Veronica and Andrew definitely have a recession kind of later this year. We have seen some I think shots across the bow and the weak data perspective, but as you mentioned, GDP strong this morning claims are up to two hundred and thirty eight thousand, So like in our view, the macro backdrop is positive for equities. You've got solid jobs growth, you've got inflation using your blow consensus, you've got a FED that wants to cut, So that to us says you want to keep running long equity, right.

You know, we're we're a little more worried about it than we have been probably in the last eighteen months. I would say, you know, Veronica and Andrew definitely have a recession kind of later this year. We have seen some I think shots across the bow and the weak data perspective, but as you mentioned, GDP strong this morning claims are up to two hundred and thirty eight thousand, So like in our view, the macro backdrop is positive for equities. You've got solid jobs growth, you've got inflation using your blow consensus, you've got a FED that wants to cut, So that to us says you want to keep running long equity, right.

Gina Martin Adam's parses down the income statement. She sees solidity. She's worried about revenue shortfall. If I have a five percent Q two nominal GDP, how do I have a revenue shortfall?

Gina Martin Adam's parses down the income statement. She sees solidity. She's worried about revenue shortfall. If I have a five percent Q two nominal GDP, how do I have a revenue shortfall?

You know? Probably probably unlikely. I think that the biggest race in the back half to me would be even though five percent high from a nominal perspective, compared to what we had a year or two ago, that nominal number is lower, And I think the question is in a slowly nominal environment, do we see downward pressure on margins? But look big picture, I think the earnings outlooks looks pretty strong. Twelve month forward EPs is like two hundred and sixty bucks, which is a very big number. So look, I think the earnings outlook is still pretty solid. The challenge is that the expectations around that earnings outlook are quite high. And if you look at this quarter to date, forty six percent of companies have traded up on earnings. Historically that's like fifty two So less than half of companies are trading high around the earnings prints, I think, which tells you how high the bar is this quarter.

You know? Probably probably unlikely. I think that the biggest race in the back half to me would be even though five percent high from a nominal perspective, compared to what we had a year or two ago, that nominal number is lower, And I think the question is in a slowly nominal environment, do we see downward pressure on margins? But look big picture, I think the earnings outlooks looks pretty strong. Twelve month forward EPs is like two hundred and sixty bucks, which is a very big number. So look, I think the earnings outlook is still pretty solid. The challenge is that the expectations around that earnings outlook are quite high. And if you look at this quarter to date, forty six percent of companies have traded up on earnings. Historically that's like fifty two So less than half of companies are trading high around the earnings prints, I think, which tells you how high the bar is this quarter.

Tom Stewart's got this great stat here, I'm just looking at it. SPX yesterday had its first two percent down day in more than in three hundred and sixty five trading days. I mean, that goes to the strength and consistency of this market here, which I guess is even more amazing than the context of the Fed's been raising rates. You know, it's just what happens when the Fed starts really cutting rates.

Tom Stewart's got this great stat here, I'm just looking at it. SPX yesterday had its first two percent down day in more than in three hundred and sixty five trading days. I mean, that goes to the strength and consistency of this market here, which I guess is even more amazing than the context of the Fed's been raising rates. You know, it's just what happens when the Fed starts really cutting rates.

Yeah, it's a really impress Paul. I think part of that is just the fact that you you sort of clip the tail off inflation, which helps a lot of people are blaming vas selling and sort of all these systematic strategies that are that are fundamentally supporting the market, and I think that's probably partially the case. There's there's a flip side of that coin though, right you know, coming out of yesterday, the size move we saw in the S and P means like volatility target funds are going to sell about seventy five billion dollars of equity over the course in the next couple of days. So the question is, yes, we've we've had a very low volatility rally. Now that we've broken out of that range, the test is going to be have we broken out of the range and do we end up a little bit untethered or do we get a strong GDP number and we sort of ourselves.

Yeah, it's a really impress Paul. I think part of that is just the fact that you you sort of clip the tail off inflation, which helps a lot of people are blaming vas selling and sort of all these systematic strategies that are that are fundamentally supporting the market, and I think that's probably partially the case. There's there's a flip side of that coin though, right you know, coming out of yesterday, the size move we saw in the S and P means like volatility target funds are going to sell about seventy five billion dollars of equity over the course in the next couple of days. So the question is, yes, we've we've had a very low volatility rally. Now that we've broken out of that range, the test is going to be have we broken out of the range and do we end up a little bit untethered or do we get a strong GDP number and we sort of ourselves.

How long does it take for these sophisticated institutional strategies to activate and then they clear the market and the market's left to itself?

How long does it take for these sophisticated institutional strategies to activate and then they clear the market and the market's left to itself?

Is it ours?

Is it ours?

Is it?

Is it?

Days? Is it? You know when they bring au Twister three? When is it?

Days? Is it? You know when they bring au Twister three? When is it?

I think it's I think it's more in the days category.

I think it's I think it's more in the days category.

Tom.

Tom.

You know, like the vall target funds, for instance, do it over a kind of a T plus two basis. You know, the CTAs are doing it sort of in real time, but they're obviously responsive to each day.

You know, like the vall target funds, for instance, do it over a kind of a T plus two basis. You know, the CTAs are doing it sort of in real time, but they're obviously responsive to each day.

Right, you know, you're down yesterday, you sell. If you're up today, you might buy.

Right, you know, you're down yesterday, you sell. If you're up today, you might buy.

So I would say, you know you're talking days, not not necessarily hours, But it would depend on the strategy. And you know, it depends how actively managed they are.

So I would say, you know you're talking days, not not necessarily hours, But it would depend on the strategy. And you know, it depends how actively managed they are.

I mean, you think about city, I mean just just the most global of off firms in New York, London, Hong Kong. Your traders talk to everybody. It's the chatter bin over the pass a couple of days. Any panic coming back or are they just saying no, it's it's pretty orderly trading here.

I mean, you think about city, I mean just just the most global of off firms in New York, London, Hong Kong. Your traders talk to everybody. It's the chatter bin over the pass a couple of days. Any panic coming back or are they just saying no, it's it's pretty orderly trading here.

Yeah, I would.

Yeah, I would.

I would say we haven't seen outright panic necessarily. Yesterday we were about thirty three percent better to sell on the desk, which is which is a significant amount of risk reduction. In tech, you were two and a half to one better to sell. So we definitely saw in tech yesterday some people taking out risk. That said through the pipes, it looked like retail was pretty actively buying those tech stocks. So look, you know people that people that wanted to be in at Video or SMCI or ARM or one of these stocks maybe looking at this pullback as you know, them getting a second bite at the Apple in terms of getting back engaged. And if that's the case, that's positive.

I would say we haven't seen outright panic necessarily. Yesterday we were about thirty three percent better to sell on the desk, which is which is a significant amount of risk reduction. In tech, you were two and a half to one better to sell. So we definitely saw in tech yesterday some people taking out risk. That said through the pipes, it looked like retail was pretty actively buying those tech stocks. So look, you know people that people that wanted to be in at Video or SMCI or ARM or one of these stocks maybe looking at this pullback as you know, them getting a second bite at the Apple in terms of getting back engaged. And if that's the case, that's positive.

So within your securities analysis team at City Group, what do you do with Google? Do you let the things settle down for X number of days and then repurpose Google. My head is spinning over, Paul, you understand it. I don't gamma trading and all the rest of it for conservative normal Hey, I've got to fund my retirement plan investors.

So within your securities analysis team at City Group, what do you do with Google? Do you let the things settle down for X number of days and then repurpose Google. My head is spinning over, Paul, you understand it. I don't gamma trading and all the rest of it for conservative normal Hey, I've got to fund my retirement plan investors.

This is an opportunity, right.

This is an opportunity, right.

I think ultimately people will look back at this, at these Google learnings and say they were actually quite solid. Obviously the YouTube side of it was a little bit weak, but the other sides were positive. The read across from a Google perspective, I think was on the cap x side of things, the AI trade this year there's been an ongoing debate of do I own the capex spenders or do I own the recipients of that Capex? And I think what you saw with you know, Google kind of guiding down a little bit on the cap x side, it really got people's antennas up. So the issue there is not of Google issue only. It is a is a feedback loop to the other parts of the ecosystem.

I think ultimately people will look back at this, at these Google learnings and say they were actually quite solid. Obviously the YouTube side of it was a little bit weak, but the other sides were positive. The read across from a Google perspective, I think was on the cap x side of things, the AI trade this year there's been an ongoing debate of do I own the capex spenders or do I own the recipients of that Capex? And I think what you saw with you know, Google kind of guiding down a little bit on the cap x side, it really got people's antennas up. So the issue there is not of Google issue only. It is a is a feedback loop to the other parts of the ecosystem.

Apple does a very clear presentation. I sit there at four to twelve pm, people go, what do you do when you go home? You know, I walk the dogs. You know, I take they take the fame for surveillance and APP. I got a beverage of my choice in my hand, and I'm looking at the Apple numbers and I'm seeing this hysteria out there within financial media, and I'm looking at the cash flow statement, going what why you know? And I don't mean to pick on Apple. It could be any of these other stucks like Google the other day they had a solid quarter.

Apple does a very clear presentation. I sit there at four to twelve pm, people go, what do you do when you go home? You know, I walk the dogs. You know, I take they take the fame for surveillance and APP. I got a beverage of my choice in my hand, and I'm looking at the Apple numbers and I'm seeing this hysteria out there within financial media, and I'm looking at the cash flow statement, going what why you know? And I don't mean to pick on Apple. It could be any of these other stucks like Google the other day they had a solid quarter.

The solid quarter, a solid free cash flow.

The solid quarter, a solid free cash flow.

How about that?

How about that?

You know, as Tom's talking about some of those big names we have, we've seen a real kind of rotation the last few weeks into the small cap, you know, looking at the Russell app performing the small cap Russell two thousand.

You know, as Tom's talking about some of those big names we have, we've seen a real kind of rotation the last few weeks into the small cap, you know, looking at the Russell app performing the small cap Russell two thousand.

Is that a thing?

Is that a thing?

I think it's a It's a thing if you believe in the soft landing. So I think what you saw late last year, middle of June on the June FMC and July eleventh on CPI is when you get soft landing data, which is solid jobs and downward surprises on inflation, especially if the FED wants to cut in the background. People gravitate towards these soft landing trades, and the target for those trades is small cap, it's regional banks, it's things of that nature. So I think what you've seen is is the market sort of going through a soft landing trade for the moment. We think it's more tactical. I don't necessarily think that's sustainable over a medium term period because Andrew Holmenhorsten team do have a deceleration and growth. A lot of people said, oh, small caps in election trade. I think that's reverse engineering a narrative. I think this is very much a macroeconomic data trade.

I think it's a It's a thing if you believe in the soft landing. So I think what you saw late last year, middle of June on the June FMC and July eleventh on CPI is when you get soft landing data, which is solid jobs and downward surprises on inflation, especially if the FED wants to cut in the background. People gravitate towards these soft landing trades, and the target for those trades is small cap, it's regional banks, it's things of that nature. So I think what you've seen is is the market sort of going through a soft landing trade for the moment. We think it's more tactical. I don't necessarily think that's sustainable over a medium term period because Andrew Holmenhorsten team do have a deceleration and growth. A lot of people said, oh, small caps in election trade. I think that's reverse engineering a narrative. I think this is very much a macroeconomic data trade.

Keep talking that. Marcus just swin Green was Stuaris.

Keep talking that. Marcus just swin Green was Stuaris.

Where we at the end of the year.

Where we at the end of the year.

I understand that's deep and long term for you, but where we at the.

I understand that's deep and long term for you, but where we at the.

End of the year.

End of the year.

Our research sides got Kroner the third fifty six hundred end of year. You know, I think we're higher than we are today at the end of the year. Personally, obviously, if we get a recession, that's not going to be the case. But our view is, as I mentioned, you run long equity risk unless and until that US job market cracks if the job marker hade strong, you remain long equities and I think we're hiring to year end in that case.

Our research sides got Kroner the third fifty six hundred end of year. You know, I think we're higher than we are today at the end of the year. Personally, obviously, if we get a recession, that's not going to be the case. But our view is, as I mentioned, you run long equity risk unless and until that US job market cracks if the job marker hade strong, you remain long equities and I think we're hiring to year end in that case.

Hugely valuable.

Hugely valuable.

Can't say enough about Stewart Keiser was City Group head of US equity Trading. What we're going to do is stop on a July morning, with our heads spinning over the American history lessons of the last ten days. We have a guest esteemed in Washington, Libby Cantrell's with Pimco, out of Brown, out of Harvard, with some serious effort at Morgan Stanley to understand inside the Beltway, and I just want to stop, and I want to talk about two senators and how they were different, How was the and I had the honor of speaking with Senator Obama by the bruin Zamboni when he was a senator, nobody knew who he was. How is Senator Obama different from Senator Harris in Libby Cantrill's world or were they the same? Just two young junior senators.

Can't say enough about Stewart Keiser was City Group head of US equity Trading. What we're going to do is stop on a July morning, with our heads spinning over the American history lessons of the last ten days. We have a guest esteemed in Washington, Libby Cantrell's with Pimco, out of Brown, out of Harvard, with some serious effort at Morgan Stanley to understand inside the Beltway, and I just want to stop, and I want to talk about two senators and how they were different, How was the and I had the honor of speaking with Senator Obama by the bruin Zamboni when he was a senator, nobody knew who he was. How is Senator Obama different from Senator Harris in Libby Cantrill's world or were they the same? Just two young junior senators.

Well so, Senator Obama actually had fewer years of service than Senator Harris did. Remember he was only in the Senate for two years. Two cups, Yeah, right, exactly.

Well so, Senator Obama actually had fewer years of service than Senator Harris did. Remember he was only in the Senate for two years. Two cups, Yeah, right, exactly.

And she was there for four years.

And she was there for four years.

I do think that maybe a similarity though, is that they both knew that they were going to be pursuing national office when they started their jobs in the Senate, so that they knew that the Senate was not sort of their landing place that they had. And I think that if you look at both of their records, that's sort of emblematic some of the things that they voted on. We're probably trying to tee them up for a national race versus just against stay in the Senate.

I do think that maybe a similarity though, is that they both knew that they were going to be pursuing national office when they started their jobs in the Senate, so that they knew that the Senate was not sort of their landing place that they had. And I think that if you look at both of their records, that's sort of emblematic some of the things that they voted on. We're probably trying to tee them up for a national race versus just against stay in the Senate.

I'm a prosecutor at Attorney General in California. I'm parachuting into the Senate, which is all collegialities. Smiley teams, put your napkin in your lap in the Senate lunch room. The rap on her is she said, troubled building a team?

I'm a prosecutor at Attorney General in California. I'm parachuting into the Senate, which is all collegialities. Smiley teams, put your napkin in your lap in the Senate lunch room. The rap on her is she said, troubled building a team?

Discuss that.

Discuss that.

Yeah, I mean she's had I think management staff issues really since she was a DA in San Francisco. So this is something that it will be a liability. Obviously, building a national campaign in a very short period of time, basically building a plane while you're flying, it is challenging to begin with.

Yeah, I mean she's had I think management staff issues really since she was a DA in San Francisco. So this is something that it will be a liability. Obviously, building a national campaign in a very short period of time, basically building a plane while you're flying, it is challenging to begin with.

But you have lived this. Do they change? Can she improve? Well? Look, she has a building.

But you have lived this. Do they change? Can she improve? Well? Look, she has a building.

I mean there is a lot, there are a lot of tailwinds to continue that the airplane metaphor she has, I mean, she has the entire kind of Democratic Party apparatus. She has lots of national figures who are endorsing her and supporting her, so people are incredibly incentivized to see her succeed. In some ways, she might actually benefit from a shorter campaign because you don't have the time to sort of pick her apart, pick the campaign apart that you would and deserve a general general election cycle. So this is so extraordinary.

I mean there is a lot, there are a lot of tailwinds to continue that the airplane metaphor she has, I mean, she has the entire kind of Democratic Party apparatus. She has lots of national figures who are endorsing her and supporting her, so people are incredibly incentivized to see her succeed. In some ways, she might actually benefit from a shorter campaign because you don't have the time to sort of pick her apart, pick the campaign apart that you would and deserve a general general election cycle. So this is so extraordinary.

I'm much.

I'm much.

I don't think those are going to be the things that are really going to weigh on voters. But I think her liability, though, is that platform that she ran on in twenty twenty. And of course for the Democrats they may not be an issue, but to get those swing vote in those six states that she needs to in order to.

I don't think those are going to be the things that are really going to weigh on voters. But I think her liability, though, is that platform that she ran on in twenty twenty. And of course for the Democrats they may not be an issue, but to get those swing vote in those six states that she needs to in order to.

Win the presidency.

Win the presidency.

The fact that she has advocated for medicare for all, the fact that she basically is you know, talked about open borders or what have you, or fewer you know, repercussions for folks coming over the border. I mean, all of those things will plague her. So, Tom to your question, well, her management style, maybe that will plague her. Maybe, But is that going to be the big headwind going into November.

The fact that she has advocated for medicare for all, the fact that she basically is you know, talked about open borders or what have you, or fewer you know, repercussions for folks coming over the border. I mean, all of those things will plague her. So, Tom to your question, well, her management style, maybe that will plague her. Maybe, But is that going to be the big headwind going into November.

Probably not. It's going to be more of trying to defend that record.

Probably not. It's going to be more of trying to defend that record.

It seems like the Democrats have some renewed momentum here. What are you telling the fund managers of pimpco about what's happened over the last you know, seventy two hours and what the next several months might entail with olipms.

It seems like the Democrats have some renewed momentum here. What are you telling the fund managers of pimpco about what's happened over the last you know, seventy two hours and what the next several months might entail with olipms.

Yeah, of course, while the horse race may or may not be interesting, that there are traders really care about is like what does this mean for the economy?

Yeah, of course, while the horse race may or may not be interesting, that there are traders really care about is like what does this mean for the economy?

What does this mean for markets? And I think that in many ways this is just reset the race, right.

What does this mean for markets? And I think that in many ways this is just reset the race, right.

And so if you were if you're putting odds on a Biden presidency and a A and sort of the composition of Congress, you would have said, wow, you know, the chips are really stacked in favor of Republicans.

And so if you were if you're putting odds on a Biden presidency and a A and sort of the composition of Congress, you would have said, wow, you know, the chips are really stacked in favor of Republicans.

Last week, that has changed.

Last week, that has changed.

And I think that is not only the top of the ballot, but really the down ballot. I mean, the composition of Congress really matters for the things that actually investors care about, For fiscal policy, for tax and for spending, and a Republicans sweep looked like it was much more likely as of last week than it does today. So of course it's still early days and how Harris will will do versus Trump, but there is so much more renewed enthusiasm. And I think the big challenge for Democrats going into the general if Biden were on the top of the ticket was lack of enthusiasm, and that has changed, right.

And I think that is not only the top of the ballot, but really the down ballot. I mean, the composition of Congress really matters for the things that actually investors care about, For fiscal policy, for tax and for spending, and a Republicans sweep looked like it was much more likely as of last week than it does today. So of course it's still early days and how Harris will will do versus Trump, but there is so much more renewed enthusiasm. And I think the big challenge for Democrats going into the general if Biden were on the top of the ticket was lack of enthusiasm, and that has changed, right.

I mean, what do you make of, you know, the fundraising. We had a story yesterday on the Bloomberg about how some of the big Wall Street folks are lining up behind Harris. But I guess what got me was the reporting that one hundred million dollars was raised by the Harris campaign in the twenty four hours after Biden announced you stepping down, and sixty two percent of those were new donors.

I mean, what do you make of, you know, the fundraising. We had a story yesterday on the Bloomberg about how some of the big Wall Street folks are lining up behind Harris. But I guess what got me was the reporting that one hundred million dollars was raised by the Harris campaign in the twenty four hours after Biden announced you stepping down, and sixty two percent of those were new donors.

Yeah, and there were relatively small donors. I think that was the thing.

Yeah, and there were relatively small donors. I think that was the thing.

I mean, this is so this is I mean, yeah, these big donors are kind of coming back home, if you will. They were sort of sitting on the sidelines when Biden was the top of the ticket. But really the fact that there's so much more renewed energy, the fact that she is appealing to to some of the constituencies that did the Democrats need in order to win, like young people and like African Americans. And I think the grassroots fundraising service reflection.

I mean, this is so this is I mean, yeah, these big donors are kind of coming back home, if you will. They were sort of sitting on the sidelines when Biden was the top of the ticket. But really the fact that there's so much more renewed energy, the fact that she is appealing to to some of the constituencies that did the Democrats need in order to win, like young people and like African Americans. And I think the grassroots fundraising service reflection.

Of that and the craziness that we're living. Folks. I actually work. I do work more than three hours ago. It's hard to.

Of that and the craziness that we're living. Folks. I actually work. I do work more than three hours ago. It's hard to.

Believe that don't work a day like Cantrell, but you know, it's fine, or Lisa Matteo.

Believe that don't work a day like Cantrell, but you know, it's fine, or Lisa Matteo.

But you know, LIBBYA.

But you know, LIBBYA.

I was reading the Pew Research Topology report where they divide Americans into nine groups and there's three or four shades of Democratic Party. She's going to be painted as a Bernie Sanders, Liz Warren progressive?

I was reading the Pew Research Topology report where they divide Americans into nine groups and there's three or four shades of Democratic Party. She's going to be painted as a Bernie Sanders, Liz Warren progressive?

Is she is?

Is she is?

She?

She?

Is she that?

Is she that?

I don't know.

I don't know.

I think that's another issue, is that voters don't really know what she stands for. I mean, obviously, when she was the DA, when she was the Attorney general in California, you know, she could have been characterized as center left, almost even centrist in terms of some of her approach to to to sort.

I think that's another issue, is that voters don't really know what she stands for. I mean, obviously, when she was the DA, when she was the Attorney general in California, you know, she could have been characterized as center left, almost even centrist in terms of some of her approach to to to sort.

Of law enforcement, what have you.

Of law enforcement, what have you.

But when she got to the Senate, and this is your previous question, Tom when she got to the Senate, she knew she was going to be running for a national office, and she did pivot pretty far left again on some of those things like Medicare for all, like defunding the police, like stopping fracking, and these issues will matter to swing voter. So I think this will be her challenge is almost reintroducing herself to voters in a way that maybe is more reflective of where she really stands. Because that the liberal, the progressive liberal that we saw in twenty twenty running for the primary against Elizabeth Warren. That will she will not be able to win the presidency if that is her platform.

But when she got to the Senate, and this is your previous question, Tom when she got to the Senate, she knew she was going to be running for a national office, and she did pivot pretty far left again on some of those things like Medicare for all, like defunding the police, like stopping fracking, and these issues will matter to swing voter. So I think this will be her challenge is almost reintroducing herself to voters in a way that maybe is more reflective of where she really stands. Because that the liberal, the progressive liberal that we saw in twenty twenty running for the primary against Elizabeth Warren. That will she will not be able to win the presidency if that is her platform.

Who's debating who going forward? I mean debate Trump advance and does that work? And who decides how that plays out? Yeah, because I'm looking forward to that. I'm looking forward to.

Who's debating who going forward? I mean debate Trump advance and does that work? And who decides how that plays out? Yeah, because I'm looking forward to that. I'm looking forward to.

And I do think and I you know again, I think one of the reasons why there's so much renewed optimism is because Harris like her or not like her. I mean, we'll be able to litigate the case against Trunk better than certainly than Biden was able to write in terms of the June twenty seventh debate. Yeah, So the running mate her re selection of the running mate. I do think will be important just in terms of reflective of her judgment, and obviously who she picks her running mate will then debate JD vance TBD on the dates. There were some dates thrown out when she was the vice president and now when she was the running mate, and now that's changed. September tenth is still potentially the date where there might be a Trump versus Harris debate, And of course, just in terms of history, that is much more typical. Usually we see the debates after the conventions. The fact that we saw this debate in June was of course what the Biden world wanted, pretty pretty impressent.

And I do think and I you know again, I think one of the reasons why there's so much renewed optimism is because Harris like her or not like her. I mean, we'll be able to litigate the case against Trunk better than certainly than Biden was able to write in terms of the June twenty seventh debate. Yeah, So the running mate her re selection of the running mate. I do think will be important just in terms of reflective of her judgment, and obviously who she picks her running mate will then debate JD vance TBD on the dates. There were some dates thrown out when she was the vice president and now when she was the running mate, and now that's changed. September tenth is still potentially the date where there might be a Trump versus Harris debate, And of course, just in terms of history, that is much more typical. Usually we see the debates after the conventions. The fact that we saw this debate in June was of course what the Biden world wanted, pretty pretty impressent.

Ten seconds, who's your VP pick? Who's the common sense pick for her?

Ten seconds, who's your VP pick? Who's the common sense pick for her?

You know, you know, you know, I think Mark Kelly, I think Roy Cooper, I think Jos Shapiro. You know, William mcgraven was was rumored for for a very hot second. He's a general who obviously killed some of them. Laden he would have that would have really shored up the ticket. But I think one of those gentlemen would do a nice job of bouncing.

You know, you know, you know, I think Mark Kelly, I think Roy Cooper, I think Jos Shapiro. You know, William mcgraven was was rumored for for a very hot second. He's a general who obviously killed some of them. Laden he would have that would have really shored up the ticket. But I think one of those gentlemen would do a nice job of bouncing.

Julie Pimcoff, You're on the list, Levy Ketchel, thank you so much, Pacific Investment Management Company and of course her really expertise on the Halls of Congress and the policy of America.

Julie Pimcoff, You're on the list, Levy Ketchel, thank you so much, Pacific Investment Management Company and of course her really expertise on the Halls of Congress and the policy of America.

This is a joy. This is someone Postsuen, you know, some Duke.

This is a joy. This is someone Postsuen, you know, some Duke.

There are young Turks in academics and in this case coming out of Stanford who just start writing his book. Goldilock's globalism has created a stir and Paul it centers around like in twenty sixteen, both candidates walked away from TPP, they walked away from the Pacific and the only tool you have is a blunt instrument of terrorists of tarffs.

There are young Turks in academics and in this case coming out of Stanford who just start writing his book. Goldilock's globalism has created a stir and Paul it centers around like in twenty sixteen, both candidates walked away from TPP, they walked away from the Pacific and the only tool you have is a blunt instrument of terrorists of tarffs.

And we've seen that from both the Trump administration, but staying with the By administration as well. We're seeing more and more talk, more and more tariffs, I guess in you know, really saying it's part of economic security, and that's something new. Tim Meyer Joints is Associate Professor of Duke Law. Tim, can you put into context why we're seeing more I guess economic policy being invested in the presidency as opposed to Congress.

And we've seen that from both the Trump administration, but staying with the By administration as well. We're seeing more and more talk, more and more tariffs, I guess in you know, really saying it's part of economic security, and that's something new. Tim Meyer Joints is Associate Professor of Duke Law. Tim, can you put into context why we're seeing more I guess economic policy being invested in the presidency as opposed to Congress.

Sure, so, you know, I think presidents have long used foreign policy as a vehicle to get around gridlock and Congress. The president has long been thought to have a pretty wide degree of latitude in making foreign policy. It's very common to talk about presidents, especially in their second term, you know, turning pivoting to foreign policy. And one of the things that we've observed since President Trump first took office in twenty seventeen is that foreign commerce, commercial policy has kind of gotten wrapped up in that in that bubble, Congress has granted the president a pretty broad, odd degree of discretion in setting trade restrictions, in particular in negotiating new trade agreements. The president, multiple presidents have kind of treated it as their prerogative to go out and negotiate new trade agreements. President Trump obviously treated it as his prerogative to impose a wide degree of tariffs on steel aluminum imports from China. Obviously he tried to regulate foreign investment in businesses like TikTok, and you know, there's some question about the legality of those actions, whether or not that goes too far in terms of cutting Congress out of the out of the policy making framework. But economic security has been what the trumpet Biden administrations have really leaned on to say, look, this is a security issue, This is for the president.

Sure, so, you know, I think presidents have long used foreign policy as a vehicle to get around gridlock and Congress. The president has long been thought to have a pretty wide degree of latitude in making foreign policy. It's very common to talk about presidents, especially in their second term, you know, turning pivoting to foreign policy. And one of the things that we've observed since President Trump first took office in twenty seventeen is that foreign commerce, commercial policy has kind of gotten wrapped up in that in that bubble, Congress has granted the president a pretty broad, odd degree of discretion in setting trade restrictions, in particular in negotiating new trade agreements. The president, multiple presidents have kind of treated it as their prerogative to go out and negotiate new trade agreements. President Trump obviously treated it as his prerogative to impose a wide degree of tariffs on steel aluminum imports from China. Obviously he tried to regulate foreign investment in businesses like TikTok, and you know, there's some question about the legality of those actions, whether or not that goes too far in terms of cutting Congress out of the out of the policy making framework. But economic security has been what the trumpet Biden administrations have really leaned on to say, look, this is a security issue, This is for the president.

So I guess where is Congress on this. I mean again, if I would were in Congress, I would think I think the Framers wanted Congress to have some of these powers.

So I guess where is Congress on this. I mean again, if I would were in Congress, I would think I think the Framers wanted Congress to have some of these powers.

Yeah, so if you read the Constitution, that is what it says. So the Constitution makes pretty clear that Congress has authority, exclusive authority to regulate foreign commerce. Congress also, you know, when we talk about tariffs, tariffs are just taxes, right, They're just taxes on imports, and so the power to set taxes is also for Congress in the Constitution. And you know, really for most of the first one hundred and fifty years, Congress did set tariffs. And it was really in the nineteen thirties that as part of kind of building out of the Great Depression and negotiating what ultimately became the World Trade Organization in the nineteen nineties that that authority over tariffs really started to get delegated to the to the president.

Yeah, so if you read the Constitution, that is what it says. So the Constitution makes pretty clear that Congress has authority, exclusive authority to regulate foreign commerce. Congress also, you know, when we talk about tariffs, tariffs are just taxes, right, They're just taxes on imports, and so the power to set taxes is also for Congress in the Constitution. And you know, really for most of the first one hundred and fifty years, Congress did set tariffs. And it was really in the nineteen thirties that as part of kind of building out of the Great Depression and negotiating what ultimately became the World Trade Organization in the nineteen nineties that that authority over tariffs really started to get delegated to the to the president.

Yeah, go ahead, Oh we note a smooth hauling.

Yeah, go ahead, Oh we note a smooth hauling.

You got a guy from Utah, guy from Oregon. They blow up the world in nineteen twenty nine. We all know what happened after that. Do you look at Trump, Harris and there's no difference, and we're going to get them. We're going to get China and Trump and Harris whoever is going to be on the edge of a new smoot Holly.

You got a guy from Utah, guy from Oregon. They blow up the world in nineteen twenty nine. We all know what happened after that. Do you look at Trump, Harris and there's no difference, and we're going to get them. We're going to get China and Trump and Harris whoever is going to be on the edge of a new smoot Holly.

You know, so President Trump is clearly talking about ideas that are in that ballpark. He's talking about and across the board ten percent tariff, he's talking about sixty percent tariffs on Chinese imports. You know that that's that's clearly in the smooth Holly range. And there have been estimates that say, look, that amounts to, you know, roughly a seventeen hundred dollars per year per household tax increase effectively that President Trump is proposing. You know, I don't think Vice President Harris is talking about anything in that range. You know, as you all mentioned, the Biden administration has by and large continued some of the tariffs that President Trump imposed when he was first in office. They tried to be a little bit more targeted I think in some of what they've done, particularly in kind of trying to calibrate some of the tariffs on China. But I don't think from Vice President Harris you're likely to see anything like the sort of ten percent across the board Terrifike that the former president is proposing.

You know, so President Trump is clearly talking about ideas that are in that ballpark. He's talking about and across the board ten percent tariff, he's talking about sixty percent tariffs on Chinese imports. You know that that's that's clearly in the smooth Holly range. And there have been estimates that say, look, that amounts to, you know, roughly a seventeen hundred dollars per year per household tax increase effectively that President Trump is proposing. You know, I don't think Vice President Harris is talking about anything in that range. You know, as you all mentioned, the Biden administration has by and large continued some of the tariffs that President Trump imposed when he was first in office. They tried to be a little bit more targeted I think in some of what they've done, particularly in kind of trying to calibrate some of the tariffs on China. But I don't think from Vice President Harris you're likely to see anything like the sort of ten percent across the board Terrifike that the former president is proposing.

Is there a sense that Congress is going to fight to get some of this power back?

Is there a sense that Congress is going to fight to get some of this power back?

Yeah, I think there's there are folks in Congress that are that are interested in doing that. And you know, when when President Trump, when he was first sort of rolling out these tariffs in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, you saw some bills actually introduced, mostly by Republicans in Congress, that would try to claw back some of the president's authority to just set tariffs without you know, so much as a buy or leave.

Yeah, I think there's there are folks in Congress that are that are interested in doing that. And you know, when when President Trump, when he was first sort of rolling out these tariffs in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, you saw some bills actually introduced, mostly by Republicans in Congress, that would try to claw back some of the president's authority to just set tariffs without you know, so much as a buy or leave.

And you know, one of the interesting things about this.

And you know, one of the interesting things about this.

Year, the kind of end of the twenty four years, is that with President Biden stepping down, with former President Trump running for office again, making this you know, similar kinds of ratcheting up proposals, you know, there might be a window in which we could see Congress try to take some action to claw back some of this authority that it's given the president.

Year, the kind of end of the twenty four years, is that with President Biden stepping down, with former President Trump running for office again, making this you know, similar kinds of ratcheting up proposals, you know, there might be a window in which we could see Congress try to take some action to claw back some of this authority that it's given the president.

Just one more question, if we could, what is your best outcome to either keelback tariffs or restructure tariffs, say in February or March of next year.

Just one more question, if we could, what is your best outcome to either keelback tariffs or restructure tariffs, say in February or March of next year.

So you know, I think that what would ideally happen here is that Congress would pass a statute that would amend a whole bunch of existing authorities that the president has and say, look, the president has authority to impose new tariffs for a certain period of time, say ninety days, one hundred and eighty days, in case there's some sort of emergency, and then those tariffs automatically sunset unless Congress enacts them by law. And that gives the president the flexibility to deal with actual emergencies without creating the kind of situation we live in today in which the president is basically using tariffs to set what amounts to sort of domestic tax policy. And that would really restore Congress's role in setting what is effectively tax fancy.

So you know, I think that what would ideally happen here is that Congress would pass a statute that would amend a whole bunch of existing authorities that the president has and say, look, the president has authority to impose new tariffs for a certain period of time, say ninety days, one hundred and eighty days, in case there's some sort of emergency, and then those tariffs automatically sunset unless Congress enacts them by law. And that gives the president the flexibility to deal with actual emergencies without creating the kind of situation we live in today in which the president is basically using tariffs to set what amounts to sort of domestic tax policy. And that would really restore Congress's role in setting what is effectively tax fancy.

This has been wonderful, Thank you so much. Tim Meyer out on YouTube.

This has been wonderful, Thank you so much. Tim Meyer out on YouTube.

The most important project of the day, the Lisa Matteo Hour the front pages. My agent just called it Lisa and said, I have to sit up straight. So I'm sitting up straight for the Lisa Matteo Hour.

The most important project of the day, the Lisa Matteo Hour the front pages. My agent just called it Lisa and said, I have to sit up straight. So I'm sitting up straight for the Lisa Matteo Hour.

What do you got to thank you?

What do you got to thank you?

Oh and by the way, a quick shout out I forgot to mention yesterday in the live chat. I think it was Tom or tim Uh said the newspapers segment needs to go an hour.

Oh and by the way, a quick shout out I forgot to mention yesterday in the live chat. I think it was Tom or tim Uh said the newspapers segment needs to go an hour.

I'm with him.

I'm with him.

Get that sponsored.

Get that sponsored.

Oh I missed, Yeah.

Oh I missed, Yeah.

Skimmed over that one. We're starting with the Paris Olympics. All right, it's barely begun. Yes, soccer games started. Okay, but there's already a cheating scandal that started with the Olympics. Okay, this is for women soccer. This is from the Washington Post. They say that Bev Priestman she will not coach Canada and its Olympic women's soccer game against New Zealand today. The reason why is because members of her staff they drew They flew drones over New Zealand's practices on Friday and Monday. I guess they were trying to get a little inside peak as to what they were doing. But she put out a statement. The coach said that she is responsible for the conduct. She said she decided to voluntarily withdraw from coaching. She apologized to the players of New Zealand and team Canada, but she said she didn't know that the recordings were being taken.

Skimmed over that one. We're starting with the Paris Olympics. All right, it's barely begun. Yes, soccer games started. Okay, but there's already a cheating scandal that started with the Olympics. Okay, this is for women soccer. This is from the Washington Post. They say that Bev Priestman she will not coach Canada and its Olympic women's soccer game against New Zealand today. The reason why is because members of her staff they drew They flew drones over New Zealand's practices on Friday and Monday. I guess they were trying to get a little inside peak as to what they were doing. But she put out a statement. The coach said that she is responsible for the conduct. She said she decided to voluntarily withdraw from coaching. She apologized to the players of New Zealand and team Canada, but she said she didn't know that the recordings were being taken.

I'm like, it's not into this as anybody can be. And I'm fascinated to see the opening ceremonies because they're going down.

I'm like, it's not into this as anybody can be. And I'm fascinated to see the opening ceremonies because they're going down.

The river, I know, or up the river, which but yeah, I.

The river, I know, or up the river, which but yeah, I.

Can't imagine, you know, by the pone nuth and you know, the rebuilding of Notre Dame to see however they're going to do.

Can't imagine, you know, by the pone nuth and you know, the rebuilding of Notre Dame to see however they're going to do.

What are they going to be in the party boats? Sweeny? When Sweeney goes over, he's on the dinner boat. You know, he gets tickets. I can't get tickets in Paris.

What are they going to be in the party boats? Sweeny? When Sweeney goes over, he's on the dinner boat. You know, he gets tickets. I can't get tickets in Paris.

But that'll be interesting, it'll be fine, it'll be it's spectacular TV.

But that'll be interesting, it'll be fine, it'll be it's spectacular TV.

I think tomorrow we get there at least. So what's next?

I think tomorrow we get there at least. So what's next?

Okay, Oh this is big now. Its real life succession playing out for the Murdoch family. Okay, So the New York Times they got their hands on a court document. It showed that Rupert Murdoch in this legal battle with his three children, he's looking to change the family's trust to hand control of the media empire only to his oldest son Lachlan instead of all four kids. So the Times are saying it caught his kids, James Elizabeth Bruden's by surprise. Now they want to challenge the action. This is succession, I mean, it's playing out in real Well, can.

Okay, Oh this is big now. Its real life succession playing out for the Murdoch family. Okay, So the New York Times they got their hands on a court document. It showed that Rupert Murdoch in this legal battle with his three children, he's looking to change the family's trust to hand control of the media empire only to his oldest son Lachlan instead of all four kids. So the Times are saying it caught his kids, James Elizabeth Bruden's by surprise. Now they want to challenge the action. This is succession, I mean, it's playing out in real Well, can.

You run an enterprise like that by committee?

You run an enterprise like that by committee?

No, but that's certainly what he What Rupert did at the beginning was is I'm going to set up they're all equal. After I die, they figure it out. But now what he's saying is, oh, my three of my offspring they don't necessarily share the editorial view that I and my son Lachlan share for Fox in particular way, and so we need to get ahead of that before anything.

No, but that's certainly what he What Rupert did at the beginning was is I'm going to set up they're all equal. After I die, they figure it out. But now what he's saying is, oh, my three of my offspring they don't necessarily share the editorial view that I and my son Lachlan share for Fox in particular way, and so we need to get ahead of that before anything.

He's not taken equity from him. It's just who's gonna run?

He's not taken equity from him. It's just who's gonna run?

Who's gonna run exactly? Okay, Yeah, and that it's gonna be. I mean, you have ano series about this, maybe call it, I don't know, succession.

Who's gonna run exactly? Okay, Yeah, and that it's gonna be. I mean, you have ano series about this, maybe call it, I don't know, succession.

That would be.

That would be.

That would be a good story.

That would be a good story.

You could do that.

You could do that.

The idea generation off the Sweeney disk is extraordinary.

The idea generation off the Sweeney disk is extraordinary.

Next, Okay, you know how parents go back and forth with their kids about the screen time? Right, Well, this is becoming I know you're gonna work with this. It's becoming a thing in zoos with zoo keepers and gorillas. Okay, the gorillas are getting too much screen time.

Next, Okay, you know how parents go back and forth with their kids about the screen time? Right, Well, this is becoming I know you're gonna work with this. It's becoming a thing in zoos with zoo keepers and gorillas. Okay, the gorillas are getting too much screen time.

Who gives them a screen time?

Who gives them a screen time?

And what screens do they do? It's the thing okay.

And what screens do they do? It's the thing okay.

So sometimes as zoo keepers do it, you know, they show them their phone and they're amazed because the gorillas actually go on and their cognizance that they like to watch the videos of themselves and other gorillas, and and they go like this.

So sometimes as zoo keepers do it, you know, they show them their phone and they're amazed because the gorillas actually go on and their cognizance that they like to watch the videos of themselves and other gorillas, and and they go like this.

To the screen.

To the screen.

If you are on YouTube, you're watching me, swipe on the screen. They liked us, wipe and say, okay, next video. You know, so they're getting attached to it. But the visitors to the zoo are also holding up their phones to attract the gorillas because the gorillas.

If you are on YouTube, you're watching me, swipe on the screen. They liked us, wipe and say, okay, next video. You know, so they're getting attached to it. But the visitors to the zoo are also holding up their phones to attract the gorillas because the gorillas.

Like the videos.

Like the videos.

So the zoos are going back and forth about this. It's it's big battle whether they should allow, whether they should not, how much screen time they should have, how much screen time they should not have. I never thought I would be talking about that.

So the zoos are going back and forth about this. It's it's big battle whether they should allow, whether they should not, how much screen time they should have, how much screen time they should not have. I never thought I would be talking about that.

It's becoming a thing.

It's becoming a thing.

This was in the Wall Street Journal. Yeah, so it's becoming a problem in the zoos.

This was in the Wall Street Journal. Yeah, so it's becoming a problem in the zoos.

I think it got to limit the screen time for the gorillas, no question.

I think it got to limit the screen time for the gorillas, no question.

The late Julian robertson Oka and his wife, they ponied up millions so we could do tigers at the Bronx Zoo like nothing.

The late Julian robertson Oka and his wife, they ponied up millions so we could do tigers at the Bronx Zoo like nothing.

And you go up there, it's immaculate, and I guess it looks a little bit like Africa. I don't know, but the.

And you go up there, it's immaculate, and I guess it looks a little bit like Africa. I don't know, but the.

Robertson's really really donated an immense amount to trying to make a zoo better than a piece of concrete.

Robertson's really really donated an immense amount to trying to make a zoo better than a piece of concrete.

Yeah, theyob as it has.

Yeah, theyob as it has.

Okay, Tom, I know you're a big fan of your chair, Like the office chair has to be like set and perfect and great. Couch demand chair, office chairs. They're on the rebound. Now you have furniture maker Miller Nole. They're saying they were in this two year rut, but now they're seeing corporate clients, global retail orders starting to grow. People are coming back to the office, that's what they're saying, So now they need the more office chairs. But it's beyond this. They're also saying for healthcare facilities, lobby in room, patience seating, they need more chairs and more people coming into the doctor's office. They're also rethinking instead of like you know, regular tables and chairs, sofas, coffee tables, office furniture.

Okay, Tom, I know you're a big fan of your chair, Like the office chair has to be like set and perfect and great. Couch demand chair, office chairs. They're on the rebound. Now you have furniture maker Miller Nole. They're saying they were in this two year rut, but now they're seeing corporate clients, global retail orders starting to grow. People are coming back to the office, that's what they're saying, So now they need the more office chairs. But it's beyond this. They're also saying for healthcare facilities, lobby in room, patience seating, they need more chairs and more people coming into the doctor's office. They're also rethinking instead of like you know, regular tables and chairs, sofas, coffee tables, office furniture.

Credit Swiss had the conference table. Then my kids came to mind. My oldest kids came to my Bloomberg desk and say, Dad, what happened? So they do a little bit differently here at Bloomberg.

Credit Swiss had the conference table. Then my kids came to mind. My oldest kids came to my Bloomberg desk and say, Dad, what happened? So they do a little bit differently here at Bloomberg.

So that's kind of the Swiss that they're making people. You know, they want people to feel better when they come back to the office, so they're doing lounge areas within the office.

So that's kind of the Swiss that they're making people. You know, they want people to feel better when they come back to the office, so they're doing lounge areas within the office.

It's a huge deal because frankly, most of that stuff, particularly the European stuff, doesn't fit me.

It's a huge deal because frankly, most of that stuff, particularly the European stuff, doesn't fit me.

I was in Davos. They put me in a.

I was in Davos. They put me in a.

Lovely, lovely, fancy condo way above my pay grade, and I sat down on.

Lovely, lovely, fancy condo way above my pay grade, and I sat down on.

A chair and broke it. No, I just you know what else can I say?

A chair and broke it. No, I just you know what else can I say?

Kidding?

Kidding?

And I wish they designed things for American size. There's there's a very few.

And I wish they designed things for American size. There's there's a very few.

There's there's one in the recording industry that everybody's the standard chair.

There's there's one in the recording industry that everybody's the standard chair.

Well you're a bit taller than Americans.

Well you're a bit taller than Americans.

Vice that we got it one more.

Vice that we got it one more.

No, we're good, We're good.

No, we're good, We're good.

That's it. Lisa Matteo. The newspapers thank you as well.

That's it. Lisa Matteo. The newspapers thank you as well.

This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.