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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Amy with Silverman RBC joins us this morning.

Amy with Silverman RBC joins us this morning.

Amy. What do the derivatives, variantskurtosis, the rest of it? What's the character the nature of this pullmarket when you look at the cross moments.

Amy. What do the derivatives, variantskurtosis, the rest of it? What's the character the nature of this pullmarket when you look at the cross moments.

Hey, good morning guys. So you know one thing I've been analogizing this too, is right now, the airplane may have stabilized, we're at a steady altitude, but everyone still remembers the turbulence. We might still have our seatbelt time, we probably have our eyes closed. And that's a little bit the positioning we're seeing in the directors market. So you know your headline Vixen is normalized a lot, but all those secondary moments that you talk about, your skew, your volatility of ball, you know, those are still pretty high. And for good reason. You know, institutional memory is short, and we still remember what happened a few weeks ago.

Hey, good morning guys. So you know one thing I've been analogizing this too, is right now, the airplane may have stabilized, we're at a steady altitude, but everyone still remembers the turbulence. We might still have our seatbelt time, we probably have our eyes closed. And that's a little bit the positioning we're seeing in the directors market. So you know your headline Vixen is normalized a lot, but all those secondary moments that you talk about, your skew, your volatility of ball, you know, those are still pretty high. And for good reason. You know, institutional memory is short, and we still remember what happened a few weeks ago.

Are we under owned Tech into Nvidia? Folks ed Ludlow a special tomorrow in the six o'clock evening hour with mister rying from in Vidia, Amy was Silberman. Are we under owned on tech? Or is Tech over owned?

Are we under owned Tech into Nvidia? Folks ed Ludlow a special tomorrow in the six o'clock evening hour with mister rying from in Vidia, Amy was Silberman. Are we under owned on tech? Or is Tech over owned?

Look from a positioning perspective, it feels like a lot of people have already jumped in the pool. The reason I say that is when you look at historical position and every earnings except this one for Nvidia, you know, it was very very long that call SKU. People really need to jump in, so they're holding that right tail in the options market to do so. You don't see that this time around. It's much more even. So. You know, people aren't overly bearish, but they're also not overly bullish. And to me, that not being overly bullish is very very different than that past I'd say six to eight quarters. You know, ever since we got that May twenty twenty three blowout number.

Look from a positioning perspective, it feels like a lot of people have already jumped in the pool. The reason I say that is when you look at historical position and every earnings except this one for Nvidia, you know, it was very very long that call SKU. People really need to jump in, so they're holding that right tail in the options market to do so. You don't see that this time around. It's much more even. So. You know, people aren't overly bearish, but they're also not overly bullish. And to me, that not being overly bullish is very very different than that past I'd say six to eight quarters. You know, ever since we got that May twenty twenty three blowout number.

Damian Goldwin Sachs making a huge deal about this. A lot of the you know, I don't know I'm gonna say, is a generalization. Hedge funds yeap are not They're not piled into in video right now.

Damian Goldwin Sachs making a huge deal about this. A lot of the you know, I don't know I'm gonna say, is a generalization. Hedge funds yeap are not They're not piled into in video right now.

Well, you know what I mean, Tom and Amy. You can help me with this. You know, I'm not really so concerned whether or not the skew on Nvidia is platty or leptocritotic. What I'm really more concerned with is real demand for hedging. It's taken me, I mean for months, for months, I've been talking to people about costs for protections, cheap, you should be hedging here. You know, equity market at all time highs. Nobody would take my call. Nobody would talk to me. What are you hearing now from investors?

Well, you know what I mean, Tom and Amy. You can help me with this. You know, I'm not really so concerned whether or not the skew on Nvidia is platty or leptocritotic. What I'm really more concerned with is real demand for hedging. It's taken me, I mean for months, for months, I've been talking to people about costs for protections, cheap, you should be hedging here. You know, equity market at all time highs. Nobody would take my call. Nobody would talk to me. What are you hearing now from investors?

Yeah, welcome to my life. You're exactly right. You know, people don't want to hear about it when realized, well it is hitting eight and VIX is kind of just floating along. But it usually takes some sort of draw down in the market to remind people why you hedge in the first place. I will tell you those calls are picking up, and I will tell you that the cost protection on a historical basis is still relatively inexpensive. Sure, is it more expensive than it was three weeks so absolutely, but on a kind of longer tail basis, you know, it's still relatively attractive and you can structure ways to carry.

Yeah, welcome to my life. You're exactly right. You know, people don't want to hear about it when realized, well it is hitting eight and VIX is kind of just floating along. But it usually takes some sort of draw down in the market to remind people why you hedge in the first place. I will tell you those calls are picking up, and I will tell you that the cost protection on a historical basis is still relatively inexpensive. Sure, is it more expensive than it was three weeks so absolutely, but on a kind of longer tail basis, you know, it's still relatively attractive and you can structure ways to carry.

That cost across the nation and worldwide.

That cost across the nation and worldwide.

Just to help you out with a jargon of young sessour, his golf game right now is Lepto kutah, So that's where he got that phrase.

Just to help you out with a jargon of young sessour, his golf game right now is Lepto kutah, So that's where he got that phrase.

Trump jam.

Trump jam.

We got to ask you about this.

We got to ask you about this.

I know that in Vidia earnings it's a big the more option markets are pricing in a big move here, you know what other events over the next let's say thirty days are really pricing in big moves if you look at overnight option markets. Obviously you have NFP on the sixth of September, but you know after that, I mean we've got some FED meetings, We've got CPI, I mean what about BOJ, what about boee c B. Do you see any other central banks moving markets?

I know that in Vidia earnings it's a big the more option markets are pricing in a big move here, you know what other events over the next let's say thirty days are really pricing in big moves if you look at overnight option markets. Obviously you have NFP on the sixth of September, but you know after that, I mean we've got some FED meetings, We've got CPI, I mean what about BOJ, what about boee c B. Do you see any other central banks moving markets?

Not nearly as much as you know that NFP you mentioned, and obviously the FED, I will tell you September tends to be a conference season, so you know, everyone's kind of back into the office. There's a lot of single name conferences that come up in industry conferences, and that usually tends to kind of surprise people. So you get some sort of fundamental idiosyncratic information that comes out of those. Those are usually kind of underpriced, and those are some things we watch for in September.

Not nearly as much as you know that NFP you mentioned, and obviously the FED, I will tell you September tends to be a conference season, so you know, everyone's kind of back into the office. There's a lot of single name conferences that come up in industry conferences, and that usually tends to kind of surprise people. So you get some sort of fundamental idiosyncratic information that comes out of those. Those are usually kind of underpriced, and those are some things we watch for in September.

Amy, is there any science here that cash is moving? I mean, rates have come in a little bit off the power speech, But does RBC see cash moving to new places?

Amy, is there any science here that cash is moving? I mean, rates have come in a little bit off the power speech, But does RBC see cash moving to new places?

So you know, in some ways, Tom, it's still the same old story, but I think there's going to be new themes. Obviously, one is just what we're doing and seeing in terms of small MidCap value versus growth. You know, you get that flight to safety back to the megacap tech names when you have those drawdowns. But one thing that I think investors have been itching to do, we just haven't quite got there, is to go back into these wider breadth names. And when you see that call Skew pickup, it's usually a forward indicator that those kind of themes are starting to move again.

So you know, in some ways, Tom, it's still the same old story, but I think there's going to be new themes. Obviously, one is just what we're doing and seeing in terms of small MidCap value versus growth. You know, you get that flight to safety back to the megacap tech names when you have those drawdowns. But one thing that I think investors have been itching to do, we just haven't quite got there, is to go back into these wider breadth names. And when you see that call Skew pickup, it's usually a forward indicator that those kind of themes are starting to move again.

You know, I just want to ask you one last question, Amy, I mean, it's gotten increasingly difficult for hedge funds or you know, anybody who's greater on a marked and market basis, you know, to find a free lunch in this market. You know, it used to be the basis trade. Then it was the FX carry trade. Talk to us about the impact of US rest of world rate compression. Do you see that impacting equities here?

You know, I just want to ask you one last question, Amy, I mean, it's gotten increasingly difficult for hedge funds or you know, anybody who's greater on a marked and market basis, you know, to find a free lunch in this market. You know, it used to be the basis trade. Then it was the FX carry trade. Talk to us about the impact of US rest of world rate compression. Do you see that impacting equities here?

Yeah, it to some of the great it has a little bit already. But I think you know what's interesting to me is when you got that major draw down a few weeks ago, it really shook all these carry trades a little, right, But in our space and equity volatility space, we actually saw some folks double down. So when you ask about a free lunch, people are still betting on that to some degree. I think that's absolutely fascinating. You know, So maybe that doesn't work as much in FX anymore, but you still people kind of you know, they're still saying, like, we think that exists in the equity wall premium space, and we're still going to try it for the months to come.

Yeah, it to some of the great it has a little bit already. But I think you know what's interesting to me is when you got that major draw down a few weeks ago, it really shook all these carry trades a little, right, But in our space and equity volatility space, we actually saw some folks double down. So when you ask about a free lunch, people are still betting on that to some degree. I think that's absolutely fascinating. You know, So maybe that doesn't work as much in FX anymore, but you still people kind of you know, they're still saying, like, we think that exists in the equity wall premium space, and we're still going to try it for the months to come.

Amy, We're silverman, Thank you so much. RBC Capital. Now an in Nvidia actually not a pontificator, but somebody that actually knows what they're talking about. Walmart at the bottom of the income statement makes three cents on the dollar. In Nvidia, at the bottom of the income statement, makes fifty five cents on the dollar.

Amy, We're silverman, Thank you so much. RBC Capital. Now an in Nvidia actually not a pontificator, but somebody that actually knows what they're talking about. Walmart at the bottom of the income statement makes three cents on the dollar. In Nvidia, at the bottom of the income statement, makes fifty five cents on the dollar.

Can they sustain fifty five.

Can they sustain fifty five.

Cents on the dollar at the bottom of the income statement.

Cents on the dollar at the bottom of the income statement.

I think they can, at least for the next two years. It's very hard to look at the landscape beyond that, given how fast this space is moving, but clearly they have the product lead to do that.

I think they can, at least for the next two years. It's very hard to look at the landscape beyond that, given how fast this space is moving, but clearly they have the product lead to do that.

Men dig sing with us from Bloomberg Intelligence. So just simply these chips, these things they sew that we don't understand. Do they depreciate, do they become obsolescent? What's the Nvidia advantage to what happens to these chips once they sell them?

Men dig sing with us from Bloomberg Intelligence. So just simply these chips, these things they sew that we don't understand. Do they depreciate, do they become obsolescent? What's the Nvidia advantage to what happens to these chips once they sell them?

They do depreciate, and think of you know, your old PCs. I mean, they're still around. They're not as useful as the new ones, but you can still use them for some sort of computation. It's the same way with nvideo GPUs, albeit they're much larger in terms of you know, the compute capacity they are sitting in a data center, and they do depreciate, but the usefulness will last for at least, you know, good eight to ten years. And that's where you know, companies that are pulling together all these joint data centers with clusters of GPUs, they have an advantage because large angline models are all about scaling. The next model is going to be ten times bigger GPT five. Same thing with lamafoor. And you need more compute capacity and the only company that can provide it right now is in Vidia. The Intel CPUs or the AMD gear just doesn't work when it comes to doing this in parallel computing.

They do depreciate, and think of you know, your old PCs. I mean, they're still around. They're not as useful as the new ones, but you can still use them for some sort of computation. It's the same way with nvideo GPUs, albeit they're much larger in terms of you know, the compute capacity they are sitting in a data center, and they do depreciate, but the usefulness will last for at least, you know, good eight to ten years. And that's where you know, companies that are pulling together all these joint data centers with clusters of GPUs, they have an advantage because large angline models are all about scaling. The next model is going to be ten times bigger GPT five. Same thing with lamafoor. And you need more compute capacity and the only company that can provide it right now is in Vidia. The Intel CPUs or the AMD gear just doesn't work when it comes to doing this in parallel computing.

Man, the revenue growth margin EPs, which data points can be most watched by the markets as in video releases, And you know when I look at it, actually I look at margins, I look at the H twenty, I look at the Chin specific AI accelerator Nvidia, you know, and I know a lot of people are focused on that.

Man, the revenue growth margin EPs, which data points can be most watched by the markets as in video releases, And you know when I look at it, actually I look at margins, I look at the H twenty, I look at the Chin specific AI accelerator Nvidia, you know, and I know a lot of people are focused on that.

They're focused on black Well shipments, whatever that is.

They're focused on black Well shipments, whatever that is.

Talk to us about you know what the smart analysts on the street are looking for tonight when in VideA releases.

Talk to us about you know what the smart analysts on the street are looking for tonight when in VideA releases.

I would say more revenue and gross margin, and in that order simply because right now they are undershipping demand. I mean Nvidia has and it's by a lot. That's why you see it in their pricing. That's why gross margins are going up. But we haven't reached that point where the market supply has caught up with the demand. And it'll be the case tonight as well.

I would say more revenue and gross margin, and in that order simply because right now they are undershipping demand. I mean Nvidia has and it's by a lot. That's why you see it in their pricing. That's why gross margins are going up. But we haven't reached that point where the market supply has caught up with the demand. And it'll be the case tonight as well.

And loadload tomorrow night a special one hour Bloomberg Technology on this juggernaut. What is your Man Deep Singh question to Jensen?

And loadload tomorrow night a special one hour Bloomberg Technology on this juggernaut. What is your Man Deep Singh question to Jensen?

Well, so I want to hear from Jensen how he looks at the scaling laws for these large language models. I mean, in the end, this wave is going to have some sort of a CAPEX digestion, even though it's a long tail when it comes to this capex investments that will see with Generator AI there will be a digestion phase. So what I want to know from Jensen is what is he seeing in terms of scaling of these large language models and when will we see a pause in terms of evaluating the ROI on the investments that companies are making.

Well, so I want to hear from Jensen how he looks at the scaling laws for these large language models. I mean, in the end, this wave is going to have some sort of a CAPEX digestion, even though it's a long tail when it comes to this capex investments that will see with Generator AI there will be a digestion phase. So what I want to know from Jensen is what is he seeing in terms of scaling of these large language models and when will we see a pause in terms of evaluating the ROI on the investments that companies are making.

Remind me where the money is in AI. I went out on Twitter. They have this grac thing and I searched my name and it was hilarious. What came up? What is the actual use of AI that Man Deep Singh sees.

Remind me where the money is in AI. I went out on Twitter. They have this grac thing and I searched my name and it was hilarious. What came up? What is the actual use of AI that Man Deep Singh sees.

I mean right now, if you talk to a developer, they would rave about how much productivity jen Ai has added to their workflow. And it's just doing simple things, you know, simple searches that people were doing on Google before the cop pilot brings it inside whatever editor that they are working. So it's more about an assistant that can do simple task like for an analyst, it's like having an associate who can do basic searches, basic data gathering, and that's quite powerful because it saves you so much time. So we're not talking about high end you know, competition that will change the world. Now, it's about doing simple tasks in a way where it drives more productivity. And we are seeing a lot of instances of that.

I mean right now, if you talk to a developer, they would rave about how much productivity jen Ai has added to their workflow. And it's just doing simple things, you know, simple searches that people were doing on Google before the cop pilot brings it inside whatever editor that they are working. So it's more about an assistant that can do simple task like for an analyst, it's like having an associate who can do basic searches, basic data gathering, and that's quite powerful because it saves you so much time. So we're not talking about high end you know, competition that will change the world. Now, it's about doing simple tasks in a way where it drives more productivity. And we are seeing a lot of instances of that.

Man deep since August the seventh, when in video stock kind of you know, found its base there, the market cap is two point four trillion today, just a few weeks later it's three point one trillion dollars. That's a seven hundred and fifty billion dollar gain in terms of market cap. I mean, it's hard to wrap your head around a number like that. I mean when the market came off, when a video stock came off, that a lot of people lose money. Do they have short term memory loss? I mean, like, how can it snap back so quickly? I mean seven hundred and fifty billion, that's mega millions on steroids, Tom, I mean, how do you quantify that?

Man deep since August the seventh, when in video stock kind of you know, found its base there, the market cap is two point four trillion today, just a few weeks later it's three point one trillion dollars. That's a seven hundred and fifty billion dollar gain in terms of market cap. I mean, it's hard to wrap your head around a number like that. I mean when the market came off, when a video stock came off, that a lot of people lose money. Do they have short term memory loss? I mean, like, how can it snap back so quickly? I mean seven hundred and fifty billion, that's mega millions on steroids, Tom, I mean, how do you quantify that?

That just goes to show what kind of an investor base they have. Yeah, and if I was Jensen, these are not the kind of investors I want to have because I want, you know, investors who will be part of the long term story. And we know the long term story is quite strong when it comes to Nvidia and generate a AI. But clearly there are people who are trading the stock and that's where you see a forty percent round trip for no reason.

That just goes to show what kind of an investor base they have. Yeah, and if I was Jensen, these are not the kind of investors I want to have because I want, you know, investors who will be part of the long term story. And we know the long term story is quite strong when it comes to Nvidia and generate a AI. But clearly there are people who are trading the stock and that's where you see a forty percent round trip for no reason.

Do they have any Apple characteristics of use of cash, of perchance dividend growth, or even with all that cash coming in fifty five cents in the dollar, share buyback.

Do they have any Apple characteristics of use of cash, of perchance dividend growth, or even with all that cash coming in fifty five cents in the dollar, share buyback.

Probably a buyback could happen, but they just did a stock split, so you know, I find it hard to believe that they will be buying back their stock at this phase when they are growing, you know, forty fifty percent. The growth rates will taper in the second half next year, but clearly a high growth company like Nvidia, they have so much room to invest, they'll probably be looking for some acquisitions.

Probably a buyback could happen, but they just did a stock split, so you know, I find it hard to believe that they will be buying back their stock at this phase when they are growing, you know, forty fifty percent. The growth rates will taper in the second half next year, but clearly a high growth company like Nvidia, they have so much room to invest, they'll probably be looking for some acquisitions.

September nine, Apple out the new toy. Your opinion of the Act of September nine.

September nine, Apple out the new toy. Your opinion of the Act of September nine.

I mean it's huge because when we talk about deploying generative AI, the number one real estate is your phone, and Apple just has to capitalize on doing that. They don't have their own large angreg model, but they own the distribution when it comes to, you know, the smartphone base that they have, and that's where you know, deploying Jenai on phone is a lot more powerful than deploying Jenai on the cloud. And I think Apple can show that on September.

I mean it's huge because when we talk about deploying generative AI, the number one real estate is your phone, and Apple just has to capitalize on doing that. They don't have their own large angreg model, but they own the distribution when it comes to, you know, the smartphone base that they have, and that's where you know, deploying Jenai on phone is a lot more powerful than deploying Jenai on the cloud. And I think Apple can show that on September.

Man, deep, where are we in the semi cycle?

Man, deep, where are we in the semi cycle?

I mean seriously, I mean like we saw a lot of stockpiling or semiconductor chips after COVID, after the pandemic you know by China, and you know the sanctions obviously due to the trade war, so a lot of noise there. I'm here is where you believe we are in the semiconductor cycle.

I mean seriously, I mean like we saw a lot of stockpiling or semiconductor chips after COVID, after the pandemic you know by China, and you know the sanctions obviously due to the trade war, so a lot of noise there. I'm here is where you believe we are in the semiconductor cycle.

I mean I pay a lot of attention to the lead times. When the lead times start to compress in semiconductors, that's when you know you're a closer to an end right now. The lead times aren't compressing. Even though TSMC is expanding capacity, the lead times are still growing. In fact, there are delays off, you know, producing black leaves, so we don't have that insight yet.

I mean I pay a lot of attention to the lead times. When the lead times start to compress in semiconductors, that's when you know you're a closer to an end right now. The lead times aren't compressing. Even though TSMC is expanding capacity, the lead times are still growing. In fact, there are delays off, you know, producing black leaves, so we don't have that insight yet.

Brilliant Mandy, thank you so much. Bendy's singing, they're an in video.

Brilliant Mandy, thank you so much. Bendy's singing, they're an in video.

Ed.

Ed.

Your Denny joins us, your DNNY research ed. You have a lonely call if you go out not eighteen months, but seventeen months, sixteen months, who's counting? You have an interpolated extrapolation of the SPX to Dow fifty thousand, one hundred and six, which is up twenty one point five percent out sixteen months.

Your Denny joins us, your DNNY research ed. You have a lonely call if you go out not eighteen months, but seventeen months, sixteen months, who's counting? You have an interpolated extrapolation of the SPX to Dow fifty thousand, one hundred and six, which is up twenty one point five percent out sixteen months.

How lonely do you feel?

How lonely do you feel?

How lonely is your bullishness on a in our stock market?

How lonely is your bullishness on a in our stock market?

Certainly more people that are optimistic about the outlook for the economy there there were back in twenty twenty two, In early twenty twenty two and through twenty twenty three, we work pretty lonely with the idea that there wouldn't be a recession. And that was definitely a contrary call because, look, it was logical to expect that with the FED raising interest rates from a FED funds rate of zero to five andred quarter percent, that that kind of tightening would cause a recession. We argued that we were in enrolling recessions that were impacting the various sectors of the economy without taking us down. And we argued that the consumer was fundamentally resilient, that this idea that they'd run out of excess savings missed the point that there were what seventy million baby boomers with seventy five trillion dollars of retirement assets and the retiring.

Certainly more people that are optimistic about the outlook for the economy there there were back in twenty twenty two, In early twenty twenty two and through twenty twenty three, we work pretty lonely with the idea that there wouldn't be a recession. And that was definitely a contrary call because, look, it was logical to expect that with the FED raising interest rates from a FED funds rate of zero to five andred quarter percent, that that kind of tightening would cause a recession. We argued that we were in enrolling recessions that were impacting the various sectors of the economy without taking us down. And we argued that the consumer was fundamentally resilient, that this idea that they'd run out of excess savings missed the point that there were what seventy million baby boomers with seventy five trillion dollars of retirement assets and the retiring.

I mean I got up one hundred and twenty eight percent from the pandemic low. Here when we get to Dow fifty thousand again, this is off sixty six thousand something. Edgar Denny's most optimistic call for twenty twenty six. Tell us your confidence in your X axis, the ability to have pullbacks like we saw in early August, or just the confidence of out six months out, one year out, fourteen months.

I mean I got up one hundred and twenty eight percent from the pandemic low. Here when we get to Dow fifty thousand again, this is off sixty six thousand something. Edgar Denny's most optimistic call for twenty twenty six. Tell us your confidence in your X axis, the ability to have pullbacks like we saw in early August, or just the confidence of out six months out, one year out, fourteen months.

Well, I think the market has demonstrated not only that it's a bull market, but it's a it's a very supercharged bull market. I think what's supercharging that is there's still a tremendous amount of liquidity in the financial system. You know, the increase in indust rates encouraged a lot of people to pile into money market mutual funds. So we have a record six trillion dollars in money market mutual funds, and two and a half training of that is retail, and is the Fed lowers interust rates that money. Some of that money will pour into the stock market and the into the bond market. So you know, every time the market goes down, look at what happened in early August. The market had a panic attack and it didn't last very long, and we basically did a ben you jump, and we just rebounded completely.

Well, I think the market has demonstrated not only that it's a bull market, but it's a it's a very supercharged bull market. I think what's supercharging that is there's still a tremendous amount of liquidity in the financial system. You know, the increase in indust rates encouraged a lot of people to pile into money market mutual funds. So we have a record six trillion dollars in money market mutual funds, and two and a half training of that is retail, and is the Fed lowers interust rates that money. Some of that money will pour into the stock market and the into the bond market. So you know, every time the market goes down, look at what happened in early August. The market had a panic attack and it didn't last very long, and we basically did a ben you jump, and we just rebounded completely.

Damien says, if you get an Edgeyard Denny end of twenty six call which interpolates over to Dow fifty thousand, is there talking point? That's thirteen point four percent per year from the pandemic bottom when you were the only one I know that wasn't assent in cash.

Damien says, if you get an Edgeyard Denny end of twenty six call which interpolates over to Dow fifty thousand, is there talking point? That's thirteen point four percent per year from the pandemic bottom when you were the only one I know that wasn't assent in cash.

Edgar Denny, you wrote the book on central bank balance sheet finance. I mean, I've been reading your work on this for many, many years. It really has helped me kind of be a better analyst myself. You know, I'm looking at the combined central bank balance sheets of the FED, the ECB, the BOJ, and the PBOC. Right now twenty five point seven trillion in assets, well off the high of thirty one trillion we saw, you know, back in twenty twenty two. At what point does the ship stop? I mean, I know these balance sheets are still relatively large as a percentage of GDP, But what are your thoughts here? I mean, at what point does something snap?

Edgar Denny, you wrote the book on central bank balance sheet finance. I mean, I've been reading your work on this for many, many years. It really has helped me kind of be a better analyst myself. You know, I'm looking at the combined central bank balance sheets of the FED, the ECB, the BOJ, and the PBOC. Right now twenty five point seven trillion in assets, well off the high of thirty one trillion we saw, you know, back in twenty twenty two. At what point does the ship stop? I mean, I know these balance sheets are still relatively large as a percentage of GDP, But what are your thoughts here? I mean, at what point does something snap?

Well, you know, there's been a lot of talk. I've been doing this for over forty years and I can't tell you how many times people said this is going to end badly. And I don't call people using the expression when is it going to snap? But I think that's the same thing as when will it end badly? And so far, you know, occasionally we've had corrections. Occasionally, we've had bear markets. Occasionally we've had recessions. These things really don't happen that often, right they and we get past them.

Well, you know, there's been a lot of talk. I've been doing this for over forty years and I can't tell you how many times people said this is going to end badly. And I don't call people using the expression when is it going to snap? But I think that's the same thing as when will it end badly? And so far, you know, occasionally we've had corrections. Occasionally, we've had bear markets. Occasionally we've had recessions. These things really don't happen that often, right they and we get past them.

Uh.

Uh.

And anybody who was smart enough to get out at the top of the stock market probably wasn't smart enough to get out to get in at the bottom. I mean, it's it's a it's a tricky thing to get the tops in the bottoms and I'm sort of in the Professor Siegel camp, the Warren Buffett camp that says, uh, you really got to stay stay in the market. Uh. And I think where I've brought some value is I've been pretty good at picking bottoms still working on tops.

And anybody who was smart enough to get out at the top of the stock market probably wasn't smart enough to get out to get in at the bottom. I mean, it's it's a it's a tricky thing to get the tops in the bottoms and I'm sort of in the Professor Siegel camp, the Warren Buffett camp that says, uh, you really got to stay stay in the market. Uh. And I think where I've brought some value is I've been pretty good at picking bottoms still working on tops.

Well, well, let me.

Well, well, let me.

Review that October. There's been two October lows, twenty two and twenty three. I'd call the twenty two low the Yard Denny and Campora low. Between their combined ages, they go back to George Washington and Ed Yard Denny and Roelfhanka Pork completely different, both said shut up and by October of twenty two.

Review that October. There's been two October lows, twenty two and twenty three. I'd call the twenty two low the Yard Denny and Campora low. Between their combined ages, they go back to George Washington and Ed Yard Denny and Roelfhanka Pork completely different, both said shut up and by October of twenty two.

And Ralph alkmpora's chief market technical guy. I mean for anyone who doesn't know out there, but I'll say this. You know what you called my attention to some years ago, Ed is when you look at the four big central banks. I'm talking to PBOC, not the Bank of England here. You know, if you combine their balance sheets back in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, when they started to taper, and you know, the growth in those balance sheets combined started to decline, we saw hard landing. We saw a really painful event back then at the end of twenty nineteen into twenty twenty. Now we've been seeing the same thing, but it's been going on since the middle of twenty twenty two. I mean, so nothing is broken this time to your point, But you know, how much further can we go on with the global money supply contracting at this pace?

And Ralph alkmpora's chief market technical guy. I mean for anyone who doesn't know out there, but I'll say this. You know what you called my attention to some years ago, Ed is when you look at the four big central banks. I'm talking to PBOC, not the Bank of England here. You know, if you combine their balance sheets back in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, when they started to taper, and you know, the growth in those balance sheets combined started to decline, we saw hard landing. We saw a really painful event back then at the end of twenty nineteen into twenty twenty. Now we've been seeing the same thing, but it's been going on since the middle of twenty twenty two. I mean, so nothing is broken this time to your point, But you know, how much further can we go on with the global money supply contracting at this pace?

Well, I think when you look at the central banks, and I'm looking at the I've had the Bank of Japan, the ECB as the three main central banks that combined the assets of you know, the pessimists during the bull market that came after the Great Financial Crisis, the pessimists were showing a chart of the combined assets of the central banks versus the S and P five hundred and said, oh, look, the only thing that's really driving this bull market is all this liquidity. And you know, a couple of years ago they started to retrench on their quantitative easing, some of them are doing they've been doing quantitative tightening. And yet here we are at a record high and the equal weight to SMP five hundred, and we're almost at a record high in the S and P five hundred. So there's a lot going on here. It's not all about central banks. It's also about people working hard in companies and generating earnings and earnings driving the market higher.

Well, I think when you look at the central banks, and I'm looking at the I've had the Bank of Japan, the ECB as the three main central banks that combined the assets of you know, the pessimists during the bull market that came after the Great Financial Crisis, the pessimists were showing a chart of the combined assets of the central banks versus the S and P five hundred and said, oh, look, the only thing that's really driving this bull market is all this liquidity. And you know, a couple of years ago they started to retrench on their quantitative easing, some of them are doing they've been doing quantitative tightening. And yet here we are at a record high and the equal weight to SMP five hundred, and we're almost at a record high in the S and P five hundred. So there's a lot going on here. It's not all about central banks. It's also about people working hard in companies and generating earnings and earnings driving the market higher.

Talking a bit of dollar weeks.

Talking a bit of dollar weeks.

Needed fifty of twenty six off the Leman low, five hundred and ninety three percent, eleven point five percent per year on the Dow Jones Industrial average. Edgard Denny, I got a really difficult question here, and I got very strong feelings about this. You know, Damien mentions the fossilness of Edyard Denny. It used to be Robert Stoveall on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. There was a girl named Maria who was the money on me that invented the clothes. I mean Maria single had good morning to Marie. I don't know where she is.

Needed fifty of twenty six off the Leman low, five hundred and ninety three percent, eleven point five percent per year on the Dow Jones Industrial average. Edgard Denny, I got a really difficult question here, and I got very strong feelings about this. You know, Damien mentions the fossilness of Edyard Denny. It used to be Robert Stoveall on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. There was a girl named Maria who was the money on me that invented the clothes. I mean Maria single had good morning to Marie. I don't know where she is.

She's she takes off day Sama. They related Robertson.

She's she takes off day Sama. They related Robertson.

Yeah, Sam is Robert's son.

Yeah, Sam is Robert's son.

Really, Maria takes a whole month of August off.

Really, Maria takes a whole month of August off.

She's a she's that huge.

She's a she's that huge.

But anyways, Maria's out there doing her thing. Edgar Denny's on Wall Street week with lou Rukaiser, And.

But anyways, Maria's out there doing her thing. Edgar Denny's on Wall Street week with lou Rukaiser, And.

That was your total financial coverage.

That was your total financial coverage.

Your Red Barons every Saturday morning is at their Red Barons. And what is Mario Gabelli doing Edgar Denny, how do we remain bullish in the financial media modern social media frenzy of twenty twenty four.

Your Red Barons every Saturday morning is at their Red Barons. And what is Mario Gabelli doing Edgar Denny, how do we remain bullish in the financial media modern social media frenzy of twenty twenty four.

Well, I think the pessimism comes mostly from people who are focusing on the biggest picture of macroeconomic policy. Washington gets a lot of weight in their calculations, and uh, I agree, it's hard to put much lipstick on that pig in Washington, certainly on the fiscal side and on the monetary side. I think they've done it pretty well so far. But I am kind of critical of the FED turning two dubbish on Friday when Paul gave his speech at Jackson Hole. But I think what the pessimism misses is the strength of the and resilience of the US economy. It's the most powerful economy in the world. It's highly diversified. Nobody does technology better than we do. Maybe the Chinese are second, but many of their technologies they basically ripped ripped off from us. But clearly we're in the forefront of technology in the industrial sector. We're getting better and better now that we're doing on shoring. The financial sector is amazing. Nobody's got consumers like we do. You know, when our consumers are happy, they spend. When they're depressed, the spend even more. And so I think, you know, real GDP is at an all time record high. Real consumption per household? Is it an all time record high? All, let's talk about you know, only a few people prospering.

Well, I think the pessimism comes mostly from people who are focusing on the biggest picture of macroeconomic policy. Washington gets a lot of weight in their calculations, and uh, I agree, it's hard to put much lipstick on that pig in Washington, certainly on the fiscal side and on the monetary side. I think they've done it pretty well so far. But I am kind of critical of the FED turning two dubbish on Friday when Paul gave his speech at Jackson Hole. But I think what the pessimism misses is the strength of the and resilience of the US economy. It's the most powerful economy in the world. It's highly diversified. Nobody does technology better than we do. Maybe the Chinese are second, but many of their technologies they basically ripped ripped off from us. But clearly we're in the forefront of technology in the industrial sector. We're getting better and better now that we're doing on shoring. The financial sector is amazing. Nobody's got consumers like we do. You know, when our consumers are happy, they spend. When they're depressed, the spend even more. And so I think, you know, real GDP is at an all time record high. Real consumption per household? Is it an all time record high? All, let's talk about you know, only a few people prospering.

Just it.

Just it.

Can't work. It can't. An economy can't work where only a few people prosper. And you can't have record real GDP without a lot of people prospering. And that's what we're saying.

Can't work. It can't. An economy can't work where only a few people prosper. And you can't have record real GDP without a lot of people prospering. And that's what we're saying.

Edge R Danny damiensrs all fired up for some global dollar questions. Let me get this in here before Damien takes off. To me Ed, I rarely do this, folks, but in my optimism of the American experiment, to me, it is productivity. Productivity is a three ratio function. Keeping it simplistically, I've got capital dynamics, labor dynamics, and mister Solo's total factor productivity. All of this work is off Chad Jones. Now I think out at Stanford Edgar Denny talk about our productivity, our complete mystery of it, and when we're going to finally realize we're different.

Edge R Danny damiensrs all fired up for some global dollar questions. Let me get this in here before Damien takes off. To me Ed, I rarely do this, folks, but in my optimism of the American experiment, to me, it is productivity. Productivity is a three ratio function. Keeping it simplistically, I've got capital dynamics, labor dynamics, and mister Solo's total factor productivity. All of this work is off Chad Jones. Now I think out at Stanford Edgar Denny talk about our productivity, our complete mystery of it, and when we're going to finally realize we're different.

Well, a great rebound in terms of the growth rate it was two point nine percent on a year over year basis last year, and the trend average has been around two point one percent. I think we're heading towards three and a half to four and a half percent by the end of the decade. And I think that's I mean, that's what's driving my rolling twenty twenty scenario. It's my base case. It's not the only scenario that could unfold, but it's I give it a sixty percent probability. And I think, again with pessimists tend to ignore and miss is that technology solves a lot of our problems. And our biggest problem right down on a global basis, is a shortage of relatively young workers. We've seen kind of geriatric demographic profiles around the world as fertility rates have gone down and people have aged, and that labor shortage is particularly skilled young workers, is forcing companies to augment the productivity of workers with technology. And we've really never had so much technology available that's so powerful as we do today. And by the way that the technology we have is no longer just about brawn, about making things faster, carrying them faster. It's increasingly about the brain. The brain technology is the ones that make us smarter are really taking off here. So I think when you put it all together, I'm looking for a productivity growth boom this decade, the Roaring twenty twenties decade, and I think it's already started. And I think it actually started in twenty fifteen when productivity growth was zero point five percent on a twenty quarter annualized trailing basis, and now we're already at almost two percent.

Well, a great rebound in terms of the growth rate it was two point nine percent on a year over year basis last year, and the trend average has been around two point one percent. I think we're heading towards three and a half to four and a half percent by the end of the decade. And I think that's I mean, that's what's driving my rolling twenty twenty scenario. It's my base case. It's not the only scenario that could unfold, but it's I give it a sixty percent probability. And I think, again with pessimists tend to ignore and miss is that technology solves a lot of our problems. And our biggest problem right down on a global basis, is a shortage of relatively young workers. We've seen kind of geriatric demographic profiles around the world as fertility rates have gone down and people have aged, and that labor shortage is particularly skilled young workers, is forcing companies to augment the productivity of workers with technology. And we've really never had so much technology available that's so powerful as we do today. And by the way that the technology we have is no longer just about brawn, about making things faster, carrying them faster. It's increasingly about the brain. The brain technology is the ones that make us smarter are really taking off here. So I think when you put it all together, I'm looking for a productivity growth boom this decade, the Roaring twenty twenties decade, and I think it's already started. And I think it actually started in twenty fifteen when productivity growth was zero point five percent on a twenty quarter annualized trailing basis, and now we're already at almost two percent.

Right, I have to ask you this. I mean, I consider both of us to be card counters. We focus on central bank balance sheets, we focus on money supply. These are key inputs for our analysis, for a view of the market. But there's a huge gray market out there. There's shadow banks, there's offshore money, there's crypto, there's China, North Korea, rush he India. How do you account for that when you're trying to, you know, count cards and beancount the world and money and liquidity, I mean, how do you look at that?

Right, I have to ask you this. I mean, I consider both of us to be card counters. We focus on central bank balance sheets, we focus on money supply. These are key inputs for our analysis, for a view of the market. But there's a huge gray market out there. There's shadow banks, there's offshore money, there's crypto, there's China, North Korea, rush he India. How do you account for that when you're trying to, you know, count cards and beancount the world and money and liquidity, I mean, how do you look at that?

Well, again, I think we've all learned there's a lot of moving parts and inflation, there's a lot of moving parts and forecasting the economy, the consumer.

Well, again, I think we've all learned there's a lot of moving parts and inflation, there's a lot of moving parts and forecasting the economy, the consumer.

And so on.

And so on.

So it's really one of the moving parts. I certainly try as much as I can not to ignore the global perspective when I try to forecast what's going on in the US. As a matter of fact, one of the reasons we predicted that there would be no recession in the US and that inflation would still come down is we saw what everybody else was saying but wasn't connecting the dots, and that is as a recession in China, as a depression in the property market, and they've been exporting deflation to the world, and so we see that's been a big contributor in bringing down inflation rates. With regards to the currencies, we remained positive on the dollar. There's still a very strong up trend that started in twenty ten. I think the US came out of the Great Financial Crisis in better shape and is restructured in better shape than anybody else in the world. And so we continue to overweight what we call the home portfolio versus the go global portfolio.

So it's really one of the moving parts. I certainly try as much as I can not to ignore the global perspective when I try to forecast what's going on in the US. As a matter of fact, one of the reasons we predicted that there would be no recession in the US and that inflation would still come down is we saw what everybody else was saying but wasn't connecting the dots, and that is as a recession in China, as a depression in the property market, and they've been exporting deflation to the world, and so we see that's been a big contributor in bringing down inflation rates. With regards to the currencies, we remained positive on the dollar. There's still a very strong up trend that started in twenty ten. I think the US came out of the Great Financial Crisis in better shape and is restructured in better shape than anybody else in the world. And so we continue to overweight what we call the home portfolio versus the go global portfolio.

Urst and Slack emails and says good morning to doctoring at an interest in Slack at Apollo Global Management.

Urst and Slack emails and says good morning to doctoring at an interest in Slack at Apollo Global Management.

I look at Yard Denny.

I look at Yard Denny.

It's the great gloom that's out there. And I'll say every Friday afternoon, the gloom reappears, and all.

It's the great gloom that's out there. And I'll say every Friday afternoon, the gloom reappears, and all.

That it's timeless. It's ageless.

That it's timeless. It's ageless.

I mean, ed you and I and my mother, remember Joe Grahamville. I mean, you know, just as one example, it's always there. Speak ed Yard Denny to people that struggle to have a growth optimism that literally almost like new Testament, old Testament are back at a time where there wasn't the dynamics of the American economy. Speak to those cautious right now, Well, I.

I mean, ed you and I and my mother, remember Joe Grahamville. I mean, you know, just as one example, it's always there. Speak ed Yard Denny to people that struggle to have a growth optimism that literally almost like new Testament, old Testament are back at a time where there wasn't the dynamics of the American economy. Speak to those cautious right now, Well, I.

Think you were right to bring up the topic of productivity, because productivity is very deaf. That makes everything better. It's a win win win situation. With the better than expected productivity, you get better than expected really economic growth, which I think we're seeing. With the better than expected productivity, you get lower than expected inflation. I mean, it's still not widely recognized that the recent inflation has come down so dramatically and so sharply. Is because unit labor costs inflation is down to zero point five percent on a year over year basis, and that's the underlying inflation rate. And that's because productivity is really a TuS comeback. Productivity allows wages to rise faster than prices which has been actually occurring for over a year now to the benefit mostly of lower wage workers, believe it or not. And then finally, better productivity is great for corporate profit margins, which we think is going to go to a new record high in twenty twenty five and beyond. So you put it all together, and I think the key is to look at technology lead productivity growth boom, which I think has already started and will continue.

Think you were right to bring up the topic of productivity, because productivity is very deaf. That makes everything better. It's a win win win situation. With the better than expected productivity, you get better than expected really economic growth, which I think we're seeing. With the better than expected productivity, you get lower than expected inflation. I mean, it's still not widely recognized that the recent inflation has come down so dramatically and so sharply. Is because unit labor costs inflation is down to zero point five percent on a year over year basis, and that's the underlying inflation rate. And that's because productivity is really a TuS comeback. Productivity allows wages to rise faster than prices which has been actually occurring for over a year now to the benefit mostly of lower wage workers, believe it or not. And then finally, better productivity is great for corporate profit margins, which we think is going to go to a new record high in twenty twenty five and beyond. So you put it all together, and I think the key is to look at technology lead productivity growth boom, which I think has already started and will continue.

Ed generous of you to spend this half far with us Edward or Denny there on a call and remind you that out to the end of twenty twenty six has SPX six thousand plus. Call goes out to adow A fifty thousand, the only one I know in the company they pronounce a seen rich correctly. Like Damian Sassar is Will Kennedy joining us now for Queen Victoria Street. Will Kennedy executive editor for Everything Known to Commodities in energy? Will what price per barrel Brent does Saudi Arabia want?

Ed generous of you to spend this half far with us Edward or Denny there on a call and remind you that out to the end of twenty twenty six has SPX six thousand plus. Call goes out to adow A fifty thousand, the only one I know in the company they pronounce a seen rich correctly. Like Damian Sassar is Will Kennedy joining us now for Queen Victoria Street. Will Kennedy executive editor for Everything Known to Commodities in energy? Will what price per barrel Brent does Saudi Arabia want?

I've lost track of that.

I've lost track of that.

I think it's an excellent question. They probably be higher than it is today, but I think that they are going to have to think quite strategically over the coming months and into next year about how they get it there, because they have challenges in managing the market right now and they have some decisions to make about how they want to do that. We're in a transition period right now, and you've seen this for some of the coverage from US and elsewhere. We've had a tight summer in the oil markets. Things have been shin on the ground, lots of good demand from people driving and flying. But people see it changing, and especially next year as we're geting into twenty twenty five, there's increasing concern that the market will be oversupplied. That's partly down to OPEC putting oil into the market, but it's also down to in different demand in some parts of the world and strong supply from elsewhere. So how Saudi Arabia responds to that, Well, that's going to be the most important question during the rest of this year.

I think it's an excellent question. They probably be higher than it is today, but I think that they are going to have to think quite strategically over the coming months and into next year about how they get it there, because they have challenges in managing the market right now and they have some decisions to make about how they want to do that. We're in a transition period right now, and you've seen this for some of the coverage from US and elsewhere. We've had a tight summer in the oil markets. Things have been shin on the ground, lots of good demand from people driving and flying. But people see it changing, and especially next year as we're geting into twenty twenty five, there's increasing concern that the market will be oversupplied. That's partly down to OPEC putting oil into the market, but it's also down to in different demand in some parts of the world and strong supply from elsewhere. So how Saudi Arabia responds to that, Well, that's going to be the most important question during the rest of this year.

Well, I haven't been to TRIPLEI in quite some time, but you got to help me out here. Why are we so concerned about Libya again? What is going on on the ground and what's the impact on oil prices.

Well, I haven't been to TRIPLEI in quite some time, but you got to help me out here. Why are we so concerned about Libya again? What is going on on the ground and what's the impact on oil prices.

Well, Libya has been relatively stable in the last few years. We're getting about a million bals a day out of Libya. The politics remain complicated, but everyone had found a working solution to keep the oil going despite the tensions between the government and Tripoli and the powers in the eastern part of the country in Benghazi. Now that seems to be falling down, the tensions seem to be rising and in the east they can control most of the oil export terminals, so they are using oil as leverage in their battle with the central government in Tripoli, and it is clearly having an impact on markets. For all that I said that people are wired about oversupply. Over the last few days, clearly that threat to what is more than a million pounds a day of supply has rattled traders and we saw we saw a jump up. So I think it's a reminder that despite the overall balances looking a little looser than they have been, that the market also is at the mercy to geopolitical events across the Middle East, and those haven't gone away well.

Well, Libya has been relatively stable in the last few years. We're getting about a million bals a day out of Libya. The politics remain complicated, but everyone had found a working solution to keep the oil going despite the tensions between the government and Tripoli and the powers in the eastern part of the country in Benghazi. Now that seems to be falling down, the tensions seem to be rising and in the east they can control most of the oil export terminals, so they are using oil as leverage in their battle with the central government in Tripoli, and it is clearly having an impact on markets. For all that I said that people are wired about oversupply. Over the last few days, clearly that threat to what is more than a million pounds a day of supply has rattled traders and we saw we saw a jump up. So I think it's a reminder that despite the overall balances looking a little looser than they have been, that the market also is at the mercy to geopolitical events across the Middle East, and those haven't gone away well.

Well, I mean just today, I mean Goldman Saxy's Brent averaging seventy seven dollars a balance twenty twenty five CD group seeing you know, basically risks to their outlook and seeing a lower price for oil.

Well, I mean just today, I mean Goldman Saxy's Brent averaging seventy seven dollars a balance twenty twenty five CD group seeing you know, basically risks to their outlook and seeing a lower price for oil.

But you know, I want to shift the gas here. I want to shift to Rush.

But you know, I want to shift the gas here. I want to shift to Rush.

I want to shift to the Arctic LERG two right, Russia's new gas terminal that started production. I believe what is the impact on gas I mean, what is the impact on gas markets globally from that? I mean like there's been word that you know, there are you know, tankers that are you know, offloading and then you know doing all sorts of stuff in the Mediterranean Sea. You know, and talk to us a little bit about what if any impact that's going to have on energy prices going forward.

I want to shift to the Arctic LERG two right, Russia's new gas terminal that started production. I believe what is the impact on gas I mean, what is the impact on gas markets globally from that? I mean like there's been word that you know, there are you know, tankers that are you know, offloading and then you know doing all sorts of stuff in the Mediterranean Sea. You know, and talk to us a little bit about what if any impact that's going to have on energy prices going forward.

Well, global gas markets remain fairly tight. There's plenty of demand for LNG and going into the winter, I think there's the European winter, there's some concern that we may have some tightness. There are a couple of immediate reasons while that's taken place. Egypt, which is often expected, is a sort of swing sometimes the imports, sometimes exports. It looks like it's going to keep importing. That surprised some traders and that's tightened the market. And Brazil has also drawn a lot of imports because it has weak hydropowers. You've got those two things in the shorter term, long story short, still demand for Russian gas, so there it's finding its way to market through especially if you're LNG. We've continued to the energy go to yoape and the Shenanigans that you mentioned, evidence that people are finding ways to get that gas into the global market because the global market wants that gas.

Well, global gas markets remain fairly tight. There's plenty of demand for LNG and going into the winter, I think there's the European winter, there's some concern that we may have some tightness. There are a couple of immediate reasons while that's taken place. Egypt, which is often expected, is a sort of swing sometimes the imports, sometimes exports. It looks like it's going to keep importing. That surprised some traders and that's tightened the market. And Brazil has also drawn a lot of imports because it has weak hydropowers. You've got those two things in the shorter term, long story short, still demand for Russian gas, so there it's finding its way to market through especially if you're LNG. We've continued to the energy go to yoape and the Shenanigans that you mentioned, evidence that people are finding ways to get that gas into the global market because the global market wants that gas.

Well, this is tangential to the remit in London, but I'm sorry, from seed to Shining Sea, it matters. Corn is cratering. It's under four dollars of bushel. I don't know if that translates in London, but do we have a gloom within our soft's study at Bloomberg News that corn could depress back under three dollars a bushel down to two. I mean, how fragile is corn and wheat and a boom year a bumper crop year in America.

Well, this is tangential to the remit in London, but I'm sorry, from seed to Shining Sea, it matters. Corn is cratering. It's under four dollars of bushel. I don't know if that translates in London, but do we have a gloom within our soft's study at Bloomberg News that corn could depress back under three dollars a bushel down to two. I mean, how fragile is corn and wheat and a boom year a bumper crop year in America.

I think this is a trend globally that probably has requires a little bit more attention in the last few years. As we after the invasion in Ukraine and that obviously uphended global wheat markets. People got very upset about the prospects for prices. I think that period in grain markets, and by that I mean wheat, corners you mentioned soy that appears to be broadly over We are seeing some good harvests. We are seeing markets well supplied across those three main crops, and prices are lower and seem to be heading lower. So as we get into the time of year when people are looking at how much has been bought in, especially in Russia and North America, yes, crop markets appear weak, and I think obviously that's bad for the US farmers, but it is another reason why commodities pressures into inflation, perhaps less than they have been.

I think this is a trend globally that probably has requires a little bit more attention in the last few years. As we after the invasion in Ukraine and that obviously uphended global wheat markets. People got very upset about the prospects for prices. I think that period in grain markets, and by that I mean wheat, corners you mentioned soy that appears to be broadly over We are seeing some good harvests. We are seeing markets well supplied across those three main crops, and prices are lower and seem to be heading lower. So as we get into the time of year when people are looking at how much has been bought in, especially in Russia and North America, yes, crop markets appear weak, and I think obviously that's bad for the US farmers, but it is another reason why commodities pressures into inflation, perhaps less than they have been.

I mean years ago, Will Kennedy, Stewart Whiles, and Justin Kerrigan they had me in a pub. They drank me under the table and they promised me. They said, Tom, you've got to go to the Bloomberg and look at a semi large chart of inflation adjusted corn.

I mean years ago, Will Kennedy, Stewart Whiles, and Justin Kerrigan they had me in a pub. They drank me under the table and they promised me. They said, Tom, you've got to go to the Bloomberg and look at a semi large chart of inflation adjusted corn.

So I actually did.

So I actually did.

I want to take that over my overhead in Will Kennedy, it's amazing. Back to the seventies, horn inflation adjusted is ten dollars a bushel in today's dollars, and now it's just absolutely crater.

I want to take that over my overhead in Will Kennedy, it's amazing. Back to the seventies, horn inflation adjusted is ten dollars a bushel in today's dollars, and now it's just absolutely crater.

I mean, Tom, the Will and the boys play that game when they're drinking their guinness where they have to take the first sip, and it has to be the level of to be below the crest and the top of the guineas word, it's a big game out there.

I mean, Tom, the Will and the boys play that game when they're drinking their guinness where they have to take the first sip, and it has to be the level of to be below the crest and the top of the guineas word, it's a big game out there.

Will it is guys play that will? Am I wrong? Do you guys not do that out there? At the end of every year I.

Will it is guys play that will? Am I wrong? Do you guys not do that out there? At the end of every year I.

Worked there, I think it's not sever I've done for a while. I think I can still manage it though, Lise.

Worked there, I think it's not sever I've done for a while. I think I can still manage it though, Lise.

Lisa, It's July.

Lisa, It's July.

Will Kennedy, thank you so much.

Will Kennedy, thank you so much.

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