Tanks in Ukraine and China's Reopening

Published Jan 27, 2023, 12:36 PM

The US and Germany will supply Ukraine with top tier battle tanks. How will it help Ukraine fight against Russian aggression? Retired Navy Admiral and Bloomberg Opinion columnist James Stavridis offers his outlook. Bloomberg Executive Editor for Asia Markets Paul Dobson also joins to discuss the push and pull between US and Asian markets. In this episode, we also cover the political instability in Myanmar with Opinion's Clara Ferreira Marques, and columnist Justin Fox explains why retail could surprise in 2023. Listen to the latest Bloomberg Opinion podcast for all of these stories from this week.

Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vonnie Quinn. This week, when the Ukrainians decided to mask these tanks into a single armored force, they can go anywhere. They can crack the Russian line. They can prive to the Black Sea and split the Russian forces. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James devrit Us on how Ukraine will soon be able to wield tank warfare on Russia. Later, a conversation with Executive editor for Asia Markets Paul Dobson on tail risks going into next week's China markets reopening and Federal Reserve meeting. We'll also get an update on Myanmar's dire situation with Kara Ferrera Marquez and Justin Fox joins on the outlook now for retailers who avoided bankruptsy around the pandemic. Turns out they might just be okay. Now to Ukraine. As Russia's war on Ukraine passes the eleven month mark, the US and Germany both announced this week they would send battle tanks to Ukraine. United States will be sending thirty one Abram tank to Ukraine, will enhanced to Ukraine's capacity to defendis territory and achieve strategic objectives. Supporting Ukraine's ability to fight off Russian aggression to defended sovereignty and territorial integrity is a worldwide commitment. We're joined now by former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavrida's number opinion columnists, and although most recently of to risk at all nine conflicts and the crucible of decision, So Admiral least tanks are now coming, even if it takes some months and training obviously for Ukraine's military. What kinds of offensives or missions will Ukraine's military leaders now start planning. I think first and foremost, we've got to underline an important factor that many people are not talking about, which is simply the demonstration of alliance unity that this provides. This is a real morale boost for the Ukrainians and it's a shot across the bound the Russians that the West has come together and arrived at this decision. In terms of the actual tactical capability, it's quite significant. Ultimately, I would predict there will be somewhere between a hundred and two hundred of these tanks available to the Ukrainians to include both Leopards, the Abrams, the British Challengers. You put them all together, that's a very significant pivot point level of force, and it provides two big things for the Ukrainians. One, they can use them to blunt any spring offensive that the Kremlin cooks up, because the Russians just don't have the kind of heavy armor and tanks left. They've lost so many in the opening months of the war. So defensively very important. And secondly, offensively, when the Ukrainians decided to mask these tanks into a single armored force, they can go anywhere. They can crack the Russian lines. They can pride to the Black Sea and split the Russian forces. So it's a significant moment in this war. Admiral, give us a sense of what these and one Abrams, Germans two Challengers can do. In the universe of battle tanks. They're at the top. If you were to look around the world at the top five tanks in the world, if you will in them, you'll find both the Leopard and the Abrams Challenger, probably a top ten tank. These are very high speed in the world of tanks. They can go forty five miles an hour. They carry dozens and dozens of heavy round hundred fifty millimeter rounds, very big explosive. They're well armored, particularly the Abrams. They have sophisticated command and control on them on the Abram's crew of fours, well manned, reasonable range well over three hundred miles without refueling. So these are very capable of machines of war. Do they have vulnerabilities? Of course, anything you put on a battlefield ultimately could be vulnerable. But I'll put it this way, Vonnie. I'm a native guy, but if I had to be on a battlefield, I would want to be inside an Abram tank. Believe me. Well, you are a Navy guy, but you've seen it all, so to speak. Will Ukraine's military receive advice from battle experienced military personnels such as yourself. I'm not saying you necessarily, but how will they start planning missions? It sounds like you already have ten missions that you could plan given this kind of arsenal. Yeah, exactly. Although I am a Navy guy, I was, as you know, the Supreme eli Command at NATO. So I commanded significant land forces in Europe, in Afghanistan in every conceivable circumstance exactly, and I assure you that Pentagon planners will be opening the doors and with opening welcoming arms, talking to their Ukrainian counterparts to try and create the kind of battle force necessary. Somebody who springs to mindedness regard, by the way, is Lieutenant General Ben Hodge's former commander of US Army Europe commander of all NATO land Forces, was on my team there. He's very involved in helping advise and he's retired but also active duty US and NATO planners and advisers are working already with the Ukrainians on these kinds of tactical plans. How effective could a Russian defense be against some of these tactical plans. Is there a scenario in which Ukraine can just go on the offensive and finish this quickly? No? I wish I could agree with that, but unfortunately, at this point the Russians are very dug in, and this is very significant body They still have control of the air. They have control of the sky, and therefore they will be able they the Russians will be able to mount attacks against these tanks from the air. The Ukrainians have a minimal air capability, but That's why I think the next stage in the discussion there is going to be should we move forward and provide the Ukrainians with combat aircraft such as the mid twenty Eyes that the Poles fly quite capably. The Ukrainians know how to fly it. They could jump in those jets immediately in a real impact or us F sixteen train up the Ukrainian pilots getting into that aircraft. I think that's a conversation that you're going to see unfold in the next few months. Well exactly because that's the next piece of equipment in Ukraine's armor, Right, Does it Kline eventually get manned aircraft fighter jets? What would it take I think they will, And what it will take to motivate the West to do this are two things. One is the continued war, criminal attacks by the Russians against Ukrainian civilians, critical infrastructure, electricity, water, all of that is increasing the pressure on the West to provide the Ukrainians the beans to close their skies. And then secondly, what we just talked about Bonnie, as these tanks at the battlefield and the Ukrainians want to put together offenses against Russia, they're gonna need air cover. We are to be looking seriously at how is that going to be provided? Combat aircraft are a part of that. Another part that would be even more capable unmanned aircraft. We've already provided some, but that would be another capability that could be provided to the Ukrainians to support those tanks as they go into battle. Well, now, the Kremlin, as one might anticipate, Ukraine's allies, were overestimating the potential of these tanks to influence the war, calling it a deep delusion. Any tools to that at all, I don't think. So let's put it this way. Vladimir Prutin and the Kremlin have lied about everything since the start of the war. So for them to purport to analyze the battlefield and tell us these tanks are going to be useful or not, I think is ridiculous. Any military professional will tell you these tanks once you get into real numbers, you know it's not going to be a few dozen, but once you have a couple of hundred or more, it'll be a very powerful force on the battlefield. On the battlefield, though, how will Russia respond to the Leopard twos and the one as they will suit to flip the switch from what we did to their armor, which means they will try to use drones to go after them. They'll try to use their command of the air to strike the tanks from their combat aircraft. They will have some anti tank missiles, much like the javelin missiles. Our tanks, however, are much more battle hardened, and more importantly, we know how to use them in combined arms operations, meaning that those tanks will have the capability of surrounding forces, for example, with stingers, to take out aircraft coming in that threatened the tanks. Combined operations is going to be the key to using these tanks effectively. Confident we'll be able to put that other now, Admiral, you do attention to something very important in a Lumber opinion column. The wars are of stockpile immunition Israel or w R S A I U S weapons and Israel. Effectively, some of the ammunition and so on will be transferred to Ukraine, explained us a little bit more about what is happening in that region. Certainly, when I was the Commander of US European Command, in charge of all US forces in Europe, part of my remit was military to military cooperation with Israel. So I have a lot of personal experience looking at this quite enormous stockpile of weapons which is pre positioned forward owned by the United States, maintained by Israel. Within the State of Israel. It's probably between one and one point five billion dollars in weapons, ammunition, and equipment. Part of that stockpile includes artillery rounds, in particular howitzers, that kind of equipment which was put there in case a masked Arab attack or an Iranian attack or to occur against the State of Israel. Because Israel now has warming relationships with europe world, and because Uron isn't gonna amount a massive ground defensive and because the Syrian armed force has have been shattered at the Syrian War, the Pentagon and the Israelis have agreed that it makes sense to take some several hundred thousand artillery rounds out of that stock file and move the Ukraine. That's what's happening. It makes sense. The Israelis have agreed it, US is pushing it. We're going to get those rounds in the hands of Ukrainians, I would say easily in time for spring. Offensive Numeric opinions Admiral James Stavidas, and the Admiral continues with us in moments, So stay tuned to Bloomberg Opinion. You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vonnie Quinn and we're back with former NATO Suprema Allied Commander Admiral James Stafidas. In a Boomberg Opinion column this week, the Admiral pointed to US military stockpiles in Israel, some of which will now get transferred to Ukraine and what that all means for Israel's quote unquote insurance policy. Let's rejoin the conversation. This will likely change what Israel procures for its own stockpiles. Does that change the balance of military strengths in that region at all? And I think this will be an opportunity for the Israeli's, working in concert with the United States, of course, to change the character of that stockpile. Currently it's very twentieth century ground warfare centering, which is kind of what we're seeing in the Ukraine, of course, But the real battles in the Middle East are going to turn on air defense, precision guided munitions sophisticated to me in a control surface to surface missiles, anti ship cruise missiles. None of those in any numbers are in that stockpile. So I think this is an opportunity to take, if you will, the dumb weapons out put the smart weapons in. It's a win win win. The Ukrainians win because they get what they need today, the Israelis get what they need for twenty one century warfare in that region, and the US satisfies two of our close allies and partners Israel in Ukraine. Any concerns though that it ups the anti a little bit, No, I think that at this stage of the conflict, there is nothing more the West can do that provokes Russia anymore. And let's face it, Russia started this war, invaded Ukraine, is massacring civilians, is running tortured chambers and rape rooms in the cities they have occupied. They are undeserving of our concern over their sensibilities. It's time to really turn on the capability for the Ukrainians to push back this undressed, unwarranted and illegal invage. Any concerns that Israel changing the nature of what it has in its weapons stockpile than that UPSTANDSI in that region at all, not in my view, simply because of the warming relationships between Israel and the europe world. If you'd asked me that question five years ago, I might have had some concerns. Today, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabi, in the United Arab Emirates, Guitar, all of the Gulf States Bahrain have moved in the direction of Egypt and Sworden to become in effect partners with Israel as they stand together against a growing Iranian threat. So as a result of that, I'm quite comfortable within the region, as well as with the geopolitical reality of sending the weapons to Ukraine. What is your latest sense of how Vladimir Putin is receiving intel about the war and what his plans are. Yeah, for Vladimir Prutin, I hope the light is going on. We would say in Russia, wake up and smelled the tea. It is brewing and it's getting hot on the stove. And I think that Putin is approaching a point where he is not going to be able to negotiate his way out of this and is looking at a terrible defeat on the battlefield and the shadowing of his armed forces. So I think he needs to wake up to what's happening. He still could move toward a negotiation, but that window is closing for Russia. Moon opinions Admiral James Stabrita's former NATO supremalied commander. Let's turn into markets now. With China markets reopening next week and a Federal Reserved decision to look forward to, markets are assessing tail risks. There is an opportunity for the Fed to perhaps orchestrate a soft landing the economy rolls over into recession and it's very unlikely stocks will hold up. That's not priced. Paul Doompson, Executive editor for Asia Markets. So, Paul, you're based in Singapore, Obviously there's a slightly different viewpoint from there as we head into next week. What is primarily on trader's minds as we approach China markets reopening as well as obviously the Federal Reserve meeting. I think that the reopening of China is going to be a big deal and grab a lot of trader attention at the start of the week. Bunny, the early indications from the holiday travel data and other economic inputs that we've had have been reasonably positive relative to expectations and relatives to recent years, of course, with more people traveling and getting out there and spending despite the concerns over the spread of the virus, so that should bode well for the Chinese market. The flip side of that, of course, is we had such a huge run up already this year, people will be interested to know whether that momentum can continue. Probably there's a reasonable grounds to expect that that can continue, because what we've really been seeing is large international investors with major underweight China positions being forced at least reduced that sort of sure that they have out there, so buying back some of their China exposure just because the performance has been so strong. So that should continue to lend some support a momentum for the market, together with what will hopefully be increasingly encouraging economic news as well as the virus disipate from it. And yes, it does seem like perhaps the virus did peak. Beneficials say it peaked, and we'll have to wait and see. Of course, yes, it does seem likely that the travel from the city to the countryside means that will enter a different phase to the virus where it will filter out across the rest of the country. But with the Majorty, he's starting to see reduction in cases again. That should bode well for that reopening trade as well. Now, Paul, how much of the reopening trade is going to be colored by the potential for the FED to move twenty five basis points and be either doubbish or haggish. We're not quite curious. Probably, Holker right. Probably the risk is for a hawkish surprise if anything. You know, the SAID has been adamant that it wants to get interest rates fire and then keep them there for longer than the market is pricing in the market is being pretty tenacious in its best on the opposite, and the way that that pays out across Asia's markets is in a week of dollar a week in in dollar, which is supporting Asia effects in particular through this period and also lending a lot of attraction to emerging markets. You know, we're seeing outflows from US markets into emerging markets, which includes North Asia in particular and China, as we've been saying, but right across the rest of our region as well. So you know, it's hard to see how much more insistent the SIDS can be, but they will do their best. One would imagine to job those expectations or bring them back in line with what they said would like to see. It will be really interesting as well to see how the market interprets the banker's Canada's decision to go on hold from here, um, they were the first to start hiking more or less now the first go on hold, And whether that's a message that will getting traction across the other major central banks through the rest of this year and give more confidence to that sort of riskier asset kind of trade. Yes, and sort of contrary to the shiver that went through markets after Australia reported higher than anticipated inflation, absolutely absolutely so. So Australia may have a little bit more fuel in the tank for those great increases after that inflation and surprise. But again, you know, the market is waiting to hear whether we're moving closer to a kind of holding position in some of our larger economies here, you know. And then on the flit side, of course, funny for our region, the Bank of Japan is just meeting in the opposite the wrist and there's everybody else's as everybody else is starting to slow down that pace. They're very increases, and that obviously is going to continue to be very strongly in everybody's focus in the coming days and weeks. Paul does the dead ceiling in the United States and the potential fight over raising it or not raising it. I guess is that something that's visible in Asia yet um No would say not yet. I think what we're all doing over this side of the world is our homework, reading all those childs, boning up on what it might mean and when it might mean something for us. It seems, you know, is something to more worry about as we get further through the year, that Asian investors will be anxious about the idea of the US default. Given the holdings of treasuries by governments across the region, it's not the sort of thing that they like to see. Theres already been some bob comments that we've seen from various Chinese officials, and so, you know, more a story for later in the year. But at the same time, you know everybody's going to be following it with an increasing attention, as those said wines, and they're sort of spending the ministrual closer, Executive editor for Asia Markets, Paul Dobson, There, stay tuned, we get a glimpse into the devastated economy of Myanmar. Next. As civil war rages on Bloomberg Opinions, Klara Ferro Marquez joins more next on Bloomberg Opinion, I'm Vanni Quinn. You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vanni Quinn. Aymar has largely disappeared from headlines this following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, but it was the subject of a brutal coup almost two years ago and has been in an intractable civil war ever since. The coup, of course, had followed an election that had reduced a landslide victory for On San Succi's National League for Democracy. Well, the Hunter took over and violence ensued, prompted a surge of resistance and repressionist Kara Freira Marquez rights in Bloomberg Opinion, she joins me, Now, so, Clara, Myanmar is a country that's a little bit dipped out of the limelight, partially because I guess it's a civil war that's happening there as opposed to a war being imposed on it by another country, but also because really of a lack of journalism from Myanmar. It's a very very difficult place to do journalism from. But the economy is in trouble. About of the population currently living below the national poverty line according to the World Bank. How bad is the situation right now? We're very bad, indeed, I mean Mema has been trouble for quite some time. When it had a spark of hope around twenty fifteen with the election n Sensor chief government, it was really an optimistic moment, even though really the military has not actually seeded that much. That the military dumper had officially ended in twenty eleven, they really hung on to as much as they could. And when they saw the landside election at the end of twenty twenty where they moving towards the National League for Democracy so on Sensory Chiefe, it was a bit too much and they pulled it all back in the February, one month just before the new parliament was d be sworn in, they grabbed power. I mean, really, you're looking at Southeast Asia's poorist country, a number of problems, including ethnic conflicts, even well before this particular instance. Obviously, then you have a terrible situation of military brutality and resistance on top of all these existing problems. So the result is inevitably terrible. There's a huge number of factions that are part of the resistance. Are they banding together her well? Are they fighting amongst each other? Tell us what you know about how the resistance is hearing at the moment. The double Eye of Alis that she did a really interesting comflict mass of leanmar which is worth looking at because it really does show you the different kinds of conflicts of urban resistance, ethnic multiple different kinds, as you say, which is some extent it is coordinated with the distance the regime is coordinated. It's coming under the people's defense force at the moment, and that includes the number of ethnic groups of pre existing conflicts that aligned themselves with the resistance movement. Obviously they all have slightly different means of operating. There's no real sort of coordinating force, so it is a little complicated, but I think they're all pretty united in opposing the military jumper now on times that she herself is a pretty polarizing figure at this point in time. Is there still the hope that she will come back make some kind of a return to power. I think that's extremely unlikely, as things done so intense to what we've always said is that she's tainted by her approach to the Hingear Trustee. She was with human Rights icon is now tainted. But obviously she remains the most prominent resistance because she is being held by the Jinder. She faced the prisoners from the total first three years, so you know, well beyond what expectancy pretty much anyone at this point. So I think very very unlikely there is however, you know what we're really looking towards the theories this channel election. So the junta wants to hold an election as the state of emergency expires. We expect that election around August, and really it's the junta will use it as a seed leaf sort of democracy theater to try and really get the world to move on and perhaps ease some of the restrictions on trade and sanctions. There is some concern that they would change the rules of her detention, for example, release her around that time in part to contribute to this sort of democracy theater. The likelihood that she would be able to operate freely I think is almost mill at this point without a change in government. What about the economy, Clara, I mean, it depends very much on tourism, and I would imagine there's not much tourism happening right now. I know it was destinuitely not as tourism destination. So the economy is struggling. So even under unfensity was making a bit of becomic right the beginning. You know, a lot of investive interests, and learn that with the situation in Ka and remember the military of trucities against the mussim Hingian minority that really pushed people back. It was already doing poorly even before the coup and with the crew of course, all this sort of interest has dissipated. People have fled out as much as possible. So really the only people still trading with them a still working there would be China, to some extent, Indian and Thailand. So it really is very very restrictive. Are other countries getting involved? You know? Is there any invitation for other countries to get involved or tried to help the resistance if not obviously the armed forces. So no, this isn't such a Ukraine situation where the West or indeed any other pricey has really thrown its blot in for the distance. I think part of the problem here is that it's extremely complicated, very very difficult to solve because you're not just solving the consequences of the cup. You're solving you know, decades of different conflicts within the country, in a very large country at that. So it's almost an intractable problem, the very very unattractive for countries to get involved in, particularly the West with it's very limited leverage in NEAMA. But what's striking, of course is that the region so for Asian for the Association of Southeast Asians Nations, this has really been a LISTMAS test. And I think while they haven't done as badly as some people had expected, and they certainly they have managed to downgrade, for example, the representation of the gin test grouse them to some extent, it really hasn't gone far enough to attempt to solve the problem and to do things, for example, like make it much much harder for Giner leaders to come to Singapore and you know, get their health care. And because of course NAMAS just collapsed, not least because the militaries cracked down on doctors and nurses, but they can come to Singapore, they can come to Singapore and get the education, comes in important bad property. So you know, all of that is really what we would have expected to see a lot more Indonesia's at the head of a this year, so you know, pasting on the back of the surfing, on the back of their success, and by the hope to see something more. But really Indonesia's priority is economic growth and it is unlikely to want to get too bogged down with Myanmar. And while the neighbors continue to sort of taly support the military to China, India Thailand at least were trying to less extent, but certainly the others is very very difficult to unpick this. What happens next? Is there an event that we're waiting for, you know, obviously seeing an increase in fighting according to one estimate that was nearly fo increase in air strikes over you know, certain areas of Myanmar. Would it help if it was more in the international I first of all, in terms of international I mean, I absolutely it would help. So season I think you mentioned Yanmar journalist. I mean a number of very very brave people are still reporting in Myanmar, not be burned journalists. So you know, there is a number of initiatives like Erogy County in the Nmar really against the odds. You know, a number of the number of journalists obtained Indian is very very high, indeed, and it's only gotten worse since the coup, very difficult conditions to operate. I think the problem is largely that the outside world is distractors. There are just too many problems. They're even in twenty one there was COVID, there was Afghanistan, there was two Grey there's now Ukraine. I mean, there's just so much to concentrate on, so much to distract that when you have a problem as intractable as this, it's not it's it's perhaps comprehensible why people, especially political leaders, choose to focus elsewhere. The problem, of course is that it doesn't get solved if it's a line light and only sinks further into this horrible so for war with a huge human cost and economic costs. So I think what we're really looking for this year is is the election, which is to say, is this sort of August we expected more or less in August um and that will really be an attempt by the military to a little bit of democracy theater, I think, to try and get to try and split the in special community because they got the non democratic countries there's less democratic countries in the region will really look to this and say, oh, well, you know, myanma has been a problem forever. This is the best of a bad situation. They've now had an election, of thoughts, we move on, and I think that's really where we need to draw the line. I think that even though the West has limited leverage, we can do still quite a lot to make sure the situation doesn't at least get worse. Bloomberg Opinions, Clara Ferrera Marquez. Don't forget. We're available as a podcast on Apple, Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, and do always feel free to get in touch with thoughts and opinions. We love to hear from you. Email me at vi Quinn at Bloomberg dot net. If you're a retailer and you survive the pandemic, well you might just be okay. Bloomberg Opinions. Justin Fox has been digging into the data, He joins me, Now, how are a bit of us used to come in every year and tell us what retailers are going to bankrupts? And that's fine, right, I mean, retailers go bank ups all the time. It's one of the areas where you see constant turnover. Are you calling for retail bankruptcies this year? I mean, everybody seems to be expecting more, but that's probably because they were hardly any in two thousand one and two two. Right at the beginning of the pandemic, it was really tough for a lot of retailers because nobody was going out, and basically e commerce and to a certain extent, Sam's Club cost Go did really well. And in general, over the past couple of decades, those two sectors, in particular e commerce and what the Census Bureau in the Retail Sales Data calls warehouse clubs and superstores have been just taking market share away from everybody else. And what's kind of interesting over the course of the pandemic is, yes, e commerce took even more, especially very early in the pandemic, but the warehouse clubs and superstars haven't really gained market share, and traditional retailers the last couple of years we've been the best couple of years they've had in a decade or more. It's fascinating because you would have thought that in an era of high inflation, people would immediately decide that they're going to buy more in bulk. Is it because they can't buy in bulk? Yeah, that's I mean, And it could be that towards the end of two thousand twenty two this was shifting. I was sort of looking over the course of the pandemic. But yeah, you'd think people trying to fight inflation, although there are other you know, they can go to All D and Lethal, which would show up not under the superstores, or they could go to Family Dollar or something. So I think that shifting happens in a lot of different directions. And I mean, I'm sure big Target stores show up in the superstore category. And Target actually struggled in the middle of this because it was too expensive for people. So I don't know what's causing that, But it's just kind of like maybe the traditional retailers of sort of their period of getting followed out by these two sectors on the rise may have given way to an era where, for one thing, a lot of the surviving big retailers are pretty adept with e commerce now too, and maybe we've reached this point where they can hold their ground. Obviously, if this is a really bad year for the economy the next year that won't be But I just think there's at least reason to hope maybe the next few years will actually be better still than before the pandemic. It does seem like one of the explanations has to be that because we haven't had so much contact for so long, that going into a store, even if you don't buy something, as a social experience, and you know, touching something and be able to touch something is an experience in itself, and that that's perhaps what the brick and mortar retailers were always good for, and now that's sort of becoming a thing again. We have seen some retailers, though, warned that they're not having a good time, and some of those are ones that we've been expecting for a long time, like The About and Beyond. Others have had supply chain issues and they're trying to sort them out. And then we had Lulu Lemon as well, saying it's not going to be an easy year. They're also retailers. You would have thought people would like to go in and browse around, and so what's the difference there. Well, I mean, my non retail expert take on lul Lemon is that everybody already bought enough sweats and yoga pants I mean that's like the was a big boom category the past two years, and now as more people are going into offices, I just think demand shifts and it's not going to necessarily be great for them temporarily. It is fascinating with retailers though, because they have to shift gear really fast often. Remember Lulu leam And had the problem with the C three pans and they have to sort of fix that and fix their reputation. Frankly because of that that all got solved. Now they have this to deal with. And also I feel like the era of influencer marketing is also over. That's become sort of the theme among retail analysts as well. So retailers sort of have to figure out what the landscape is for the next year or two, particularly in high inflation. And yes, wages are rising, but not real wages. But I do think it's a tough sector. Even if you are the hot new thing, you might be in trouble in a couple of years. I mean, one of the companies that's in big trouble at least according to the price of its dead is Wayfair, which is you know, online furniture retailer. But I just I think it's like this huge storm hit retail over the past couple of decades, and it's not gone away, but it feels like more and more places have kind of reconstructed their businesses in a way that they can survive the the high winds of e commerce and of changing fashion. Bloomberg Opinions at justin Fox, and that does it for this week's show. We're produced by Eric mollow This is Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vonnie Quinn. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.

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