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On today's podcast:
(1) The US Justice Department told a federal judge it’s considering recommending that Google be forced to sell off parts of its operations to alleviate the harm caused by its monopolization of the online search market, in what would be a historic antitrust breakup.
(2) Ever since President Xi Jinping sought to draw a line under China’s slowdown last month, investors have clamored for him to back up monetary easing with a powerful fiscal stimulus to help fuel one of the nation’s biggest stock rallies in years.
(3) France is waking up to a harsh reality: its fall from favor in the eyes of global investors is pointing to a long, painful and uncertain rehabilitation.
(4) Regulators in the US and UK should make it easier for companies to go public, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said.
(5) Hurricane Milton churned toward Florida’s west coast as a dangerous Category 5 storm, with flooding and high winds expected to inflict widespread damage and put lives at risk.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg dayba Acurate podcast, available every morning on Apples, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Wednesday, the ninth of October. Hit in London. I'm Caroline Hepka and.
I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. The US government considers breaking up Google over its dominance of the online search market.
Jamie Diamond, JP Morgan CEO, says that London risks falling further behind New York's IPO market if labor doesn't follow through on its promised reforms.
Plus Franz's budget crunch, we have a special report on investors falling out of love with French debt over what one economist has described as fiscal murder.
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
The US Department of Justice is considering a historic breakup of Google as a possible remedy in the monopoly case at won against the company in August. The regulator is contemplace forcing the firm to sell off parts of its operations as it seeks to prevent the tech giant from using its products, including Chrome and Android, to dominate the search industry. Speaking to Bloomberg's The David Rubinstein Show peer to Peer Conversations for an episode set to air this week. Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar pitch I played down the idea that the company's competition battles pose an immediate threat.
We definitely disagree with the ruling, but it been still in the middle of the the remedy sphase, and you know, we will appeal and this process will likely take many years. And you know, I'm confident given that you know, we are focused on innovating using technology, will do well in the long run.
That's off about CEOs and or pitch I speaking there to Bloomberg last month, responding to Tuesday's Justice Department filing, Google said its proposals would have significant unintended consequences for consumers, businesses, and American competitiveness.
Chinese equities have led losses in Asia. Thats Trader's way, weak economic data and Beijing's reluctance to commit to more stimulus. The Benchmarks is I three hundred index tumbled as much as seven point four percent in its biggest fall since twenty twenty. The drop more than wiped out the previous day's gains when stocks searched following the end of the Golden Week holiday. The latest moves come as a growing number of strshists and fund managers say that Beijing needs to back up it's spending pledges with fiscal measures. Here is Nicholas Yeo, who's head of Chinese equities at Aberdeen.
The base case is still to follow true, right. I mean you look very bad if there was no follow true. So everything just like you know, the expectation has been built in and if there's no follow true is not just affecting global investors. I think the key here is that the domestic investors are also in the market right now, right people are opening account and not deliver. The credibility issue might be back again, right because we have many false dawned. Can the government of fort another one?
Right?
Nicholas Yeo's comments show a mismatch between actually investors and officials in Beijing, who expressed confidence on Tuesday that they would hit an economic growth target of about five percent in China this year.
Jamie diamond says the UK government will have to make changes to capital markets if they want to stem the flow of companies that are opting to list in new York over London. In July, British regulators overhaul their rules for companies looking to make their public debut in the UK as part of a concerted effort to draw more initial public offerings to the city. Speaking exclusively to Bloomberg, the JP Morgan chairman and CEO said the mood music from the new labor administration is positive but needs to be backed up by further action.
Pretty I love the fact that if you're listening to the current labor government or the talking about growth, investment markets, capital markets, they do need to do those things to help her recover. If they didn't do those things, no, I think it will become more permanent than a lot of people. They go in the United stations is more liquidity, it's easy to do, I mean, and so or they have a lot of business theres which also making this in a great business environment will also help coming going public here. But right now the NASDEK or yorkstaga change, they're just more attractive places to go and we'll see how that bends out.
Jamie Diamond's warning comes as London stock market continues to battle a lack of IPOs, with firms including chip designer arm instead opting to list in the US, with its deeper capital markets and prospects for higher valuations.
Britain's shift into faster settlement of trading is running into a problem. It's currency. The UK wants to join the US in settling equity trades one day after the deal is made, which is known as T plus one, but BlueBag has learned that the chair of the group spearheading the transition, Andrew Douglas, is warning that unlike the US, the pound is not a reserve currency and is less liquid than the dollar, so the UK has to take a different approach. Currency trades typically take two days to settle, so the plans shift in the UK on equity trading in twenty twenty seven has the potential to dislocate the market.
Hurricane Milton retained Category five strength as Florida residents fled the coastline ahead of its arrival. The storm has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Florida and is expected to cause devastation across the state. Florida Democrat Kathy Caster says anyone in an evacuation zone needs to leave now.
This is an epic catastrophe. I mean, Hurricane Helleen was less than two weeks ago, but there are still some people I've heard from them even this morning who think, Okay, well, I'm going to go to the second floor and ride this out, even though I'm in an evacuation zone, and they need to take stock of their lives.
Representasive Castor called for long term disaster relief in an interview on Bloomberg's Balance of Power program. The hurricane is expected to make landfall on Wednesday nights.
The storm is likely to cause at least seventy five billion dollars worth of damage. Investors in catastrophe bonds are girding themselves for substantial losses, as the combined destructive force of Hurricanes Helene and Milton are expected to trigger payment clauses on a scale not seen in years. The full story now from Blomberg's Charlie Pellett.
Catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, as they're known in the industry, are issued by insurers and reinsurers to provide financial protection against the most severe natural disasters. Investors who buy the bonds stand to make large gains if a pre defined event does not occur, but can lose a big chunk of their capital if it does. Two weeks after Halleen unleashed severe floods in more than two two dozen states, Florida is bracing for the impact of Milton, which is expected to make landfall early Thursday morning in New York. Charlie Palette, Bloomberg Radio.
So watching closely what's happening in China, and in fact we've had some more detail. The Chinese Ministry of Finance is going to brief people on fiscal policy on Saturday. So the Finance Ministry talking about holding that briefing on the twelfth of October at ten am. So this actually has already started to affect equities being traded on shore in China. So the CSI three hundred pulling back on some of the losses. Currently we're down by three point eight percent. So that's I think an interesting point to bear in mind as we've been waiting for those details, further details from Beijing.
Yeah, and indeed that's been something it has been a dominant theme on those markets since they reopened from the holidays. We're going to get into our story around the French budget and how investors have been perceiving French death in a moment, but we're going to bring you first to the news out of the US Justice departments consider whether to force Google to sell part of its operations as one way to resolve a monopoly case over the dominance of its search engine. Could be the biggest move torain in a major tech company since the failed attempt to break up Microsoft two decades ago. Our tech editor of Lad Savavas with us for more on this story. What exactly is then the Department of Justice proposal and is it a threat to get Google to change its ways?
Yes, I would think that what we're looking at the moment is still very much a form of negotiation by lawsuit, so to speak. The starting point for this is there already has been a ruling to say that Google has been in breach of anti trust laws in the US. What we're doing at the moment is the dog is putting forward proposals to look at the remedies that should be considered by the judge in making the final judgment. Those remedies will guaranteed be appealed by Google because Google doesn't feel like it's operating any illegal monopolies, and there's a back and forth into two. The main thing to say here is that it's a highly complex situation, and the DOJ points out that whatever remedies need to be implemented, they can't just rewind the clock. The situation is it is, and they need to look forward, and they need to make sure that Google doesn't have anti trust powers in the future. And part of that, let's say, the most extreme part of that, may be the consideration of breaking off some of the businesses.
So what's Google's counter argument then.
Oh, Google's counter argument is that if you break off those businesses, you break them, So things like the Chrome browser and the Android operating system, which is the most dominant one in the world, would effectively break without Google being able to have the control and the network effects that it currently enjoys. Google's argument is to say that these things are being provided for free at the moment, some elements of them, and it's worth highlighting it's just elements, not the entire software stack, are open source, and without Google having and enjoying the current that he enjoys, people lose out, especially users will lose out. And some of the other remedy measures such as sharing Google data, such as sharing a person's search results with potential competitors in the search market, Google argues endangers the users in endagers their prevacy and security.
How does this particular case compared to this scrutiny that Google is faced from other regulators, notably in the European Union.
Well, it is very much along the same track, I mean worth bearing in mind, this is one of several lawsuits in the US. It isn't just searched that there are other Google businesses that or the regulators looking at. In the EU, the Digital Regulation Chief Vestiture she has pointed out that as far as the ads market, the online ads market goes, Google is in a position where it both owns the marketplace and owns supply and demand companies. So that's something that both Europe and the US are looking at closely.
What does all of this mean for other big tech firms flat It's.
Difficult to say, because there isn't another Google. To be honest, The closest thing to it is meta because it enjoys such a large audience with Facebook and Instagram and the like. But there really isn't another Google with the breadth of services that it has, I mean bear in mind, services like YouTube could very easily operate as an individual business. There are several CEOs under the Google CEO. It's a huge company.
So what sort of president it says for others?
I'm not really sure because Google doesn't have matching company out there.
Okay, a story of what could do to watch then test flatsaav Thanks so much for joining us with the analysis of that news on Google.
When France's presidence called a snap parliamentary election back in June, investors took fright, the country's borrowing cost jumped, and the months of political deadlock have seen the fiscal and economic situation deteriorate. Bloemberg Economics reporter based in Paris, William Horribin has been writing about this ahead of tomorrow's budget announcement from the new Prime Minister, Michelle Barnier, and will joins us this morning. Hi, what's happened then to France's standing with investors? What's happening in the bond markets has been something we've tracked closely.
Yeah, good morning's taking care well. France used to be sort of a semi semi core country, a sort of proxy for the safest German bonds that offered an attractive and small premium to investors, but now deficits of widened suddenly and the economy is misfiring at the same time as the political outlook has become very unstable after snap elections delivered to hung Parliament this summer. And that's quite a contrast to said maybe a decade of stability that included a large part of the manual Macron's presidency of France, and he sort of turned the country into to some extent a sort of post a child for economic growth and gradual repair of finances after the year's own debt crisis, but it's now sort of become a poster child for fiscal difficulties that are hard to fix, and his investors dump French bonds. As you mentioned earlier, the spread between the country's ten yure borrowing costs and that of Germany says widened to nearly eighty basis points from between fourteen fifty before the elections. That's the spread that in the years to come is going to cost as over time if it continues, will cost billions of years a year to France.
So what's gone wrong then, with the country's finances and economy.
Well before the elections, Macron had a workable majority, although not an absolute majority in Parliament, and then in June he's sort of surprised observers certainly and even his allies by dissolve parliament and betting that you get more stability and stem the rise of the far right with elections that sort of backfired spectacularly, and the Assembly, the National Assembly is now made up of three deeply divided blocks that are unable to govern alone and allergic to working together. After several months of talks, Macro finally managed to appoint Michelle Barney as Prime Minister. But Barnier's party has fewer than fifty seats in the five hundred and seventy seven seat Assembly. So the mass of all this means that the Barnier's government could easily be toppled in a no confidence vote, with the Left is already pushing for that, and so that sort of hands the keys, not all of the keys to power, but it hands a lot of power to the National Ranni's Marine La penn because if she joins the no confidence vote, then then this government falls.
Yeah. In terms of the next steps that we're watching out for, then what about the budget, which is obviously clearly the top job for Michelle Barney to try to deliver.
Yeah, this is what we're certainly watching this week, and there's been quite a lot of build up to it, and then in recent days he's due to present the budget on Thursday evening. He's already warned that we're looking at sixty billion euros of savings that will be required to get the deficit of five percent of economic output from six percent this year. That's a crucial first step in getting towards the EU limit of three percent in twenty to twenty nine. However, these serving, these savings are really going to get to hurt, with forty billion coming from spending cuts, which is a large amount for France in one year, and it could hit anything from pensions to social security, to apprenticeships and training. And on top of that, there's twenty billion years of tax increases that are going to hit big businesses and the wealthy. And that's a very risky strategy for Macron, who has built his reputation on the sort of pro business approach and a lot of his allies say that this is key to jobs and investment.
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