Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is struggling to maintain financial market confidence, with the 10-year gilt yield rising to its highest since 2008 and the pound falling to its weakest in over a year.
(2) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will become the most senior British official to visit Beijing in 7 years this weekend as she embarks on a mission to deepen economic ties with China against the backdrop of UK market turmoil that threatens to undermine her plans to spur growth domestically.
(3) Britain’s market upheaval has put the spotlight on its Labour government this week, but economists say the Bank of England will also have to rise to the occasion by slowing interest rate cuts.
(4) The wildfires across Los Angeles have razed homes and businesses, and forced about 180,000 residents to flee. Economic losses have been estimated at $135 billion to $150 billion by AccuWeather Inc., which would rank among the costliest natural disasters in modern US history.
(5) Atop Wall Street’s largest investment banks, executives are locking in plans to award traders and dealmakers their biggest bonus increases since the pandemic, with 10% hikes — or more — coming for many desks, according to people briefed on the plans.
(6) Donald Trump’s obsession with Greenland has put the world’s largest island in an unexpected position of power. Greenland's push for independence from Denmark is intensifying, with a general election in the next three months that could see the territory play the US and Denmark off each other.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg DAYBAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the tenth of January in London.
I'm Caroline Hepkip.
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Rising borrowing costs put the UK government's grand economic plans in peril.
Authorities brace for a worsening tragedy as the Los Angeles wildfires continue to burn.
Plus why Donald Trump's obsession with Greenland has put the world's largest island in an unexpected position.
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
The UK Government's economic project is close to being in tatters after this week's market turmoil. Investors of dumped guilts and the pound, signaling fears around inflation and low confidence in the government's growth plans. Bloomberg's Chief UK economist Jan Hansen says it's a verdict on the plans from the Chancellor.
Rachel reeves what the market wants is austerity because I think for me at least I can't speak for all market participants clearly, but for me, I think the biggest concern is around growth and around the obl's optimism around the gross outlook.
Hans And ads that Britain is a victim of global market moves of the UK's particularly badly hit. The pound fell to its lowest level and over a year, down one percent to one dollar and twenty two cents on Thursday, while the tenuere guilty'll close little changed on the day at four point eight one percent. That's near the highest level since two thousand and eight. The domestically focused forty two to fifty index closed near the weakest level since April. The market move comes as the Chancellor rache Reeves heads to China. Opposition politicians had Coldener to call off the trip, which is by which is the most high level visit by a British official Tubaijing in seven years.
Well, Britain's market upheaval has put the spotlight on its fiscal woes, but economists say that the Bank of England may all so have to slow interest rate cuts. While the Beery is not expected to intervene in the volatility, it may have to demonstrate a renewed commitment to tackling inflation. JP Morgan's global economist noras Centavania says that the Central Bank will need to reevaluate.
I think it's going to be increasingly difficult for the Bank of England to have confidence in reducing interest rates further to the extent that the markets had previously been pricing. So I think that we've got room for the Bank of England is now much narrower, especially if we don't get further fiscal deficit are consolidation.
Centavanya's house view is that the Bank of England has space for one cut in the near term. Despite the market view, the Central Bank's Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden backed further interest rate cuts in a speech yesterday.
Today's US jobs report is expected to shown on farm payrolls rose by one hundred and sixty five thousand last month. That's according to Bloomberg's survey of economists. To figure woodmark a step down from November and odd fuel to the narrative that the labor market in the United States continues to moderate only gradually. Today's data, due out at one thirty pm London time, comes after more Fed policymakers signals the Central Bank will likely hold interest rates at current levels for an extended period. Here's Governor Michelle Bowman, I.
Also continue to be concerned that the current stance of policy may not be as restrictive as others may see it. Even the ongoing strength in the economy, it seems unlikely that the overall level of interest rates and borrowing costs are providing meaningful for strength.
Governor Michelle Bowman's comments were echoed yesterday by the Boston Fed President Susan Collins. She says a slower approach to adjusting interest rates is merited now as officials confront considerable uncertainty now.
Two other news, ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles have killed at least ten people and force one hundred and eighty thousand residents to flee. Estimates from ACU where the put the economic losses at up to one hundred and fifty billion dollars, which would rank among the highest for a natural disaster in US history. La County Sheriff Robert Luna says the number of casualties is likely to change as relief efforts continue.
At one point, we'll be able to do a more thorough search of these impacted areas. Some of them look like a bomb was dropped in them, where we will be able to bring in canines and other things to help us hopefully not discover too many fatalities. That's our prayer. But this is a crisis and we don't know what to expect, but we're ready for everything.
La Counties Robert Luna, speaking as the fires have now scorched more than thirty thousand acres, officials say that they are hoping the tide against the blazes is turning, with forecosts predicting the wind that has flanned the flames will weaken later today.
China Center Bank says that will suspend buying government bonds as supply has fallen short of demand. The move is being seen as an attempt to temper investor bets on weak economic growth that have undermined the U want unsapped business and consumer confidence. Christy Tan, Institute investment strategist at Franklin Templeton says action is being taken to alleviate fiscal pressures.
It is definitely a counter measure to deal with the falling bond yields, and we've seen this unprecedented moves in Chinese government bond yiels decline recently, and that is at the point where it is actually putting a pressure on the R and B. So all this is manifesting into some kind of a response function from the PBOC, understandably.
Christy Tan from Franklin Templeton there speaking on Bloomberg Television in a statement to People's Bank of China out of that it will pick a time to resume purchasing sovereign debt depending on market conditions.
The world's richest person, Elon Musk, has once again waded into next month's German election. He live streamed a conversation with the co leader of the far right Alternative for Germany party, Alice Weedel Three AfD state chapters are classified as extremists and are under surveillance by Germany's domestic intelligence service, but during the ex spaces event, the Tesla and SpaceX ceo once again endorsed the party.
I think only AfD can save Germany, and I just want to be very clear about that.
Only AfD can save Germany, end of story.
And people really need to get behind AFP and otherwise things are going to get very very much worse in Germany.
Elon Musk has extensive business interests in Germany and has been a key advisor and major donor to US presidents elect Donald Trump. Germany's leader, Earl of Schultz, has previously responded to Musk, saying freedom of speech means you can say things quote that do not contain good political advice.
Executives at top Wall Street investment banks are planning to award traders and deal makers with their largest bonus increases since the pandemic. The expected double digit hikes from any desks reflects an upturn in business and optimism for the year aheads with more Harris Bloomberg's Charlie Pallace.
Sources say bonuses will rise more than ten percent for traders at Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase, and around fifteen percent for JP Morgan's investment bankers. Among senior industry executives, it's broadly expected that Goldman Sachs will go even further for some of its trading desks. The raises follow two years of industry wide restraint, whose investment banks struggle to maintain the flurry of trading and deal making they handled at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Wall Street's year end rewards are notoriously volatile as the industry cycles through booms and busts in New York, Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Radio.
Those are our top stories for you this morning. In terms of the markets, US treasury is the route that we've seen in recent days, took a breather on Thursday ahead of the non farm payrolls data we get today. The guilt sell off also paused ten year guilt yields rising two basis points yesterday. The pound, though did fall nearly one percent. European stocks yesterday managed to end in the green.
Stop.
Futures right now are in the red though for Europe and for the US stock futures In Asia, Chinese yields edge higher after the PBOC suspended buying of government bonds, Japanese yields hitting fresh cycle highs, and you've also got the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index back up a tenth of one percent, so a fourth day of strength for the US dollar.
In a moment, we'll bring you more on what the UK market turmoil this week means for the Chancellor of Rachel Reeves and for the Bank of England. Plus why Donald Trump's Greenland attempted land grab remarks have bolstered the country's independence movement. Between another story this morning, and to a product that I suppose gets a lot of attention at this time of year as people are perhaps trying to ease off the indulgences after the festive season, and this is non alcoholic spirits. Our colleague Mark laid Off, though, has been writing about while the marketing around these is very much around the idea of you being able to have a drink that might look like an alcoholic drink and make you feel more involved in festivities, that there's a whole cohort of people out there who don't basically don't want that, and that it's not essentially targeted at them.
Yes, and this is a particularly people who might be in recovery from addiction. And he's looking he's looked at a lot of the brands. He says that they're pushing this kind of general concept of wellness, but actually forty nine million Americans, it's thought, have some kind of substance use disorder, and he's saying essentially that these products are really not inclusive of those people, which I think is just really interesting read kind of framing of wellness and these sorts of products. He discusses all the marketing and then the taste of a number of these different brands in this space, seed Lip, Free Spirits, Penti and Athletic Brewing, all the different names in this market that is growing, or maybe being invented or being kind of given to adults.
I think is a great certainly for brewers. It's been a huge move towards low alcohol or no alcohol beers, and.
With good success.
I think it's fair to say looking at the numbers in this as well, but certainly a very interesting perspective and the thought perhaps going into your weekend, if you're attempting not to indulge, I suppose what's being marketed at you on that front.
Yeah, absolutely right.
Let's send our attention then to the turmoil that we've seen the termial in UK assets and what is next after a week that's seen the pound tumble and guilt yield surge. Although they took a little break yesterday, it has been an epic week. Our managing editor for F and Rates, Rachel Evans, has been with us throughout the week to discuss this.
So Rachel, good morning.
The Bank of England has not intervened, is not expected to intervene, but markets are starting to think that it might mean slower interest rate cuts. Why would the Bank of England have to slow interest rate cuts?
And will it?
Yeah, So I think it comes back to the two main factors behind the turmoil this week have really been supply and then also inflation. Now the Bank of England isn't in control of supply, but it is tasked with raining in inflation, So the inflation repressures that that kind of the market has really started talking about again, you know, in earnest have really been you know, partly largely as a result of sort of the incoming Trump administration, but obviously inflation has been a really big problem for the UK already. We've seen very sticky price pressures here and with kind of that new administration coming in and expected to sort of potentially increase inflation with tariffs, for example, there's a renewed focus on that and that's something that's going to be worrying the Bank of England. So yes, as you pointed out, traders have really been raining in sort of their expectations for how much the Bank of England could cut, you know, sort of heading into this week, you know, two cuts were seen as a lock and there was kind of a sort of likelihood of a third as well. Now we're back to sort of seeing too, you know, flat as it were. So I think it's going to be something that you know, is going to draw a lot of attention to inflation data incoming weeks. We do have CPI out next Wednesday, so that's going to be sort of the market's first chance to see perhaps what the Bank of England might need to react to.
What about questions over the quantities of tightening program and how adjustments to that might help ease some of the tensions on markets in a less dramatic way than shifting the interest rate path.
Yeah, so, I mean the QT program has been rolling on for a while. It is pretty substantive. You know, we're looking kind of one hundred billion a year. But it's worth remembering that a lot of that is now coming from redemption, so so bonds that are maturing that the Bank of England holds. And there's only about thirteen billion pounds worth of active sales expected this year. Now obviously that's a chunky number, but in the context of how much that the UK is trying to sell already about two hundred and ninety seven billion pounds of debt is not a huge number, so of course, you know, all all changes in supply, you know, help the market to a degree if they're going lower. But I mean, this seems like something that's not necessarily going to be on the table, particularly as we're not at a point yet where we're seeing any concerns about liquidity, which would be sort of a market functioning issue that the Bank of England would want to address.
Pulling out to the more political angle of this, does Chancellor Rachel Reeves have to do a repair job in the spring statement? You know, she wanted to do the tax and spending decisions all in the autumn only once a year, but the pressure is now mounting.
Yeah, I think that's a good observation. I mean, I think we're obviously unsure of what exactly she will have to say, but clearly there's going to need to be some at the very least messaging about how the government maintains credibility given these questions that are being asked by the market. The market is telling us very clearly that there is too much borrowing and that they are not sure how the books are going to balance, particularly with deck costs likely heading higher globally or staying higher globally. That's something that hasn't necessarily been factored in by the UK in terms of how they're thinking about sort of the money coming in and the money going out. So there's going to need to be some comments, maybe even before the Spring statement that sort of explain kind of how those higher deck cost figures impact the situation. We've had some nice reporting this week that suggests that sort of spending cuts are likely given sort of the government has been very forthrightd about its design not to raise taxes, so I think, you know, we'll obviously see whether that comes through in the Spring statement or whether this is done in a more incremental way. But it certainly does feel that that you know, Reeves does need to address this, you know, at some point in coming weeks and months, in order to kind of try and bring the market back on side and make sure that you know that they have faith in the labor government to kind of keep the economy on track.
Rachel in terms of the outlook for Sterling weaker again this morning slightly. There are some banks, including Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank to say there's room for sterling to drop further. What should we be watching out for.
Yeah, I mean, I think yes, weakness, definitely, we're we're seeing for some of the most bearish positioning for sterling in years. I think Welles was looking at it to go blow one point to zero. Obviously we're quite close to that already, so I think, I mean, something to watch out for is really just kind of walls through recalibrating as sterling forecasts. There's going to be a lot of people currently in the city and further afield who are thinking about kind of what this looks like longer term. I've certainly seen some suggestions that you, even if yields stabilized, sterling itself could be the thing that becomes, you know, the real driver of sort of woes for UK markets, because of course we have to remember that sterling is not just being driven by UK factors but also US factors, and a stronger dollar is something that's very much anticipated this year, given what we were talking about around sort of the Trump administration, whether they're going to sort of keep meaning that inflation is back and rates stay higher in the US, So strong dollar means weaker sterling all else equal, So I think that's something that we'll want to watch out that kind of cross current from overseas.
Okay, Rachel, thank you so much for being with us then, And the indication is what we should be watching in markets. That is our manager, get it of FX and rates, Rachel Evans, The.
US president of like, Donald Trump says Russia is Vladimir Putin wants to meet him and that an encounter is being set up. The latest indication of Trump's approach to foreign policy during his second term comes after a week in which the incoming US leader once again raised the prospect of trying to buy Greenland, declining to rule out the use of military force to take the territory. Russia says it would react to any expansion of the US military presence there, while the Danish Prime minister has once again ruled out a sale of the island, but for those on the self governing territory. The comments have also had an impact, leading to a renewed push for independence. Joining us for more on this is our Copenhagen reporter Sana Vas Sana, good morning. Could Donald Trump actually buy Greenland?
Well, the short answer is no. Greenland has made it very clear it's not for sale, it never will be for sale. But I think even if Trump doesn't succeed in buying Greenland, He's definitely laying.
The groundwork for more power in the region.
And I think the timing of Trump's comments and you may have seen also his son visiting the capital of Greenland this week, which really made everyone talk about Greenland. The timing is interesting because back in twenty nineteen, when Trump suggested to buy Greenland, this was quickly dismissed as a joke. But what's changed sense is really that Greenland is moving closer, has been moving closer to war's independence from Denmark, and Trump is absolutely capitalizing on that. He wants to get more influence when it happens. Greenland. It's the world's biggest island. It's very important to the US geopolitically, it's already home to a US military base, and it's got large reserves of critical minerals. So Trump, he really sees opportunities here.
Yeah, and it is.
It does seem to be adjusting things, doesn't it Trump's position. It's a huge space, it's a tiny population, fifty six thousand people who live in Greenland. The relationship between Greenland and Denmark, I mean, how close might Greenland be coming to independence.
Yeah.
Today it's formally a self ruling territory of the Danish Kingdom. Is that Greenland controls most domestic issues, and then Denmark is in charge of foreign policy and security. Greenland has long wanted to be their own nation. One of the key challenges has been an economic one. Can it become independent and still sustain itself economically? But it has been gaining more autonomy in the past few decades and now it's really in the final stages of that journey towards independence. They now have a draft constitution. Last year they also published a blueprint for what their foreign policy might look like. And then there's a general election coming up this spring in Greenland and that will really define the path forward for the territory. A referendum it may still be some years away, but definitely could happen while Trump is president.
What does Donald Trump's interest though, mean for that path for Greenland.
I think it's helping in a way to accelerate Greenland's independence push because he's sending a signal to the Greenland is that they won't be on their own if and when they become independent, and that's very important for Greenland. I mean I said before that the economic question is a big one. Today Greenland receives financial support from Denmark and they will need someone to provide that money. And once they become their own state, whether that's from Denmark or the US or somewhere else, Greenland will be looking for new partners. So in a way, Trump's comments and all this attention to Greenland, it's put Greenland in a position of power. Now more countries are interested, and it can use that to get a more beneficial deal both for itself now but also once it desires to break away from Denmark.
And so a final word then on Denmark's position.
Here, Yeah, the Danish government is definitely in a difficult situation because on the one hand, US is Denmark's most important ally, and then of course on the other we have Greenland, which is an important part of the Kingdom and Danes. According to Pol's they generally don't want to give it up. But it seems that Denmark is really trying to take this very diplomatic stance it wants to avoid across with the US. It's put a very positive spin on it, saying that it's welcoming US interest in Greenland and wants to collaborate more with the US and on the other hand with Greenland. It's the rhetoric has changed too. The Prime Minister of Denmark has made it clear that Greenland it's Greenland that will determine Greenland's future, not Denmark and not the US for that sake, But there's no doubt that she's under a lot of pressure nowt to give Greenland more or offer a better post independence deal. And I'm sure with Trump as president for the next four years that will that pressure will definitely intensify.
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