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This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, I'll look at earnings from AI giant Nvidia, along with existing home sales data.

This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, I'll look at earnings from AI giant Nvidia, along with existing home sales data.

I'm Tom Busby in New York.

I'm Tom Busby in New York.

I'm callin Hepkee here in London, where we're looking ahead to the Group of Twenty Leaders summit in Rio.

I'm callin Hepkee here in London, where we're looking ahead to the Group of Twenty Leaders summit in Rio.

I'm Dog Prisner looking ahead to the upcoming rate decision from the People's Bank of China.

I'm Dog Prisner looking ahead to the upcoming rate decision from the People's Bank of China.

That's all strain ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven THREEO, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg ninety two nine Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App.

That's all strain ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven THREEO, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg ninety two nine Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App.

Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby.

Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby.

We've begin today's program with Nvidia, the last of the Magnificent seven tech giants, reporting its third quarter earnings on Wednesday, and for more on what to expect from the AI heavyweight, We're joined by kuon John Savanni, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior semiconductor analysts Coon, John, thank you so much for joining us.

We've begin today's program with Nvidia, the last of the Magnificent seven tech giants, reporting its third quarter earnings on Wednesday, and for more on what to expect from the AI heavyweight, We're joined by kuon John Savanni, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior semiconductor analysts Coon, John, thank you so much for joining us.

It looks like all the stars.

It looks like all the stars.

Have aligned for Nvidia, now the most valuable company on the planet, a market cap three and a half trillion dollars. So what are you expecting from its Q three results. It's first as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial average.

Have aligned for Nvidia, now the most valuable company on the planet, a market cap three and a half trillion dollars. So what are you expecting from its Q three results. It's first as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial average.

Yeah, we expect nothing different this time, like we have seen over the last almost eight quarters. Now we again expect a very strong beaten race. Our call on that is a likelihood of the magnitude of the beaten race to be higher than what we've seen in the last two quarters. You know, in Q three and Q four Blackwell was supposed to RAM and they had some delay which has allowed its existing Hopper product line to expand. And we have seen no signs of slowing demand and adoption for Hopper right now in three Q and four Q until the large cloud customers and hyperscalers really eagerly wait for the Blackwell shipments in twenty twenty five.

Yeah, we expect nothing different this time, like we have seen over the last almost eight quarters. Now we again expect a very strong beaten race. Our call on that is a likelihood of the magnitude of the beaten race to be higher than what we've seen in the last two quarters. You know, in Q three and Q four Blackwell was supposed to RAM and they had some delay which has allowed its existing Hopper product line to expand. And we have seen no signs of slowing demand and adoption for Hopper right now in three Q and four Q until the large cloud customers and hyperscalers really eagerly wait for the Blackwell shipments in twenty twenty five.

Well, we know about demand for those Hoppers, the H two hundred accelerators. How about hardware software data center services. Are there any weaknesses for Nvidia? And as you said about that delay in the Blackwells supply chain issues, have they all been settled down?

Well, we know about demand for those Hoppers, the H two hundred accelerators. How about hardware software data center services. Are there any weaknesses for Nvidia? And as you said about that delay in the Blackwells supply chain issues, have they all been settled down?

From all of our channel checks and supply checks, it seems most, or if not all, black Well supply chain issues have been settled down. We have heard that some customers are starting to get the shipments as early as the end of this year, so that's a very promising good news. And a lot of other large customers are preparing to accept shipments starting in one queue, so that suggests there's no more major issues. There will be, however, Blackwell will be supply constraint as was Hopper in its initial ramp.

From all of our channel checks and supply checks, it seems most, or if not all, black Well supply chain issues have been settled down. We have heard that some customers are starting to get the shipments as early as the end of this year, so that's a very promising good news. And a lot of other large customers are preparing to accept shipments starting in one queue, so that suggests there's no more major issues. There will be, however, Blackwell will be supply constraint as was Hopper in its initial ramp.

Well, let me ask you, now that Hopper has about ninety percent of the market for these types of accelerators, what will Blackwell mean for Nvidia? And as you said, they're ramping up production now you expect deliveries this quarter next quarter to really speed up.

Well, let me ask you, now that Hopper has about ninety percent of the market for these types of accelerators, what will Blackwell mean for Nvidia? And as you said, they're ramping up production now you expect deliveries this quarter next quarter to really speed up.

What will that mean for the company.

What will that mean for the company.

Yeah, So when you look at in terms of market share in GPUs for in media, you know they started out with almost close to like ninety ninety seven ninety eight percent on a revenue basis, and slowly you know, they're trickled down to close to I would say low nineties, if not nineties. We think Blackwell will actually stop that, won't really call it share laws, but actually increase those number. You know, Blackwell, especially the cluster of GPUs using their envi link technology has really up their game if you can even believe that's possible, and there is no other competent of end to end product out there, so actually that increases their motive, even makes the share more defensible.

Yeah, So when you look at in terms of market share in GPUs for in media, you know they started out with almost close to like ninety ninety seven ninety eight percent on a revenue basis, and slowly you know, they're trickled down to close to I would say low nineties, if not nineties. We think Blackwell will actually stop that, won't really call it share laws, but actually increase those number. You know, Blackwell, especially the cluster of GPUs using their envi link technology has really up their game if you can even believe that's possible, and there is no other competent of end to end product out there, so actually that increases their motive, even makes the share more defensible.

And they sell to the big East. There's Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, all of them big buyers. What about the competition though, I mean we've heard Apple, Amazon now making their own AI accelerators, their own GPUs. How does that affect Nvidio or does it at all?

And they sell to the big East. There's Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, all of them big buyers. What about the competition though, I mean we've heard Apple, Amazon now making their own AI accelerators, their own GPUs. How does that affect Nvidio or does it at all?

I mean it does look in terms of long term and in terms of the size of opportunity, it does affect A six which are the chips that these customers designed for themselves, which are called you know, those are the largest risk to Nvidia because frankly, there is no other sort of semiconductor company which is a huge risk to them. So that is definitely a large risk. All of these you know, its largest buyers have already started to adopt their some of them their own A six in a lot of volume. There's also a possibility like someone like let's say Amazon, who has successfully using their A six for a while now, are have also started to offer those to their own cloud customers as an alternative to Nvidia's GPUs that are running in Amazon's cloud, So that is definitely a risk. However, this the AA rarely, we think is in the early innings. What it means is, as of this point, neither their customers, their direct customers are slowing down the buying our media chips. Neither are their customers customers are slowing down using of Nvidia chips. So in the near term you might see both in Vidia's GPUs and A six continue to grow significantly cause because there's a lot of demand appetite. But once this sort of demand rarely matures, that is when we'll really see that fight for each dollar spend.

I mean it does look in terms of long term and in terms of the size of opportunity, it does affect A six which are the chips that these customers designed for themselves, which are called you know, those are the largest risk to Nvidia because frankly, there is no other sort of semiconductor company which is a huge risk to them. So that is definitely a large risk. All of these you know, its largest buyers have already started to adopt their some of them their own A six in a lot of volume. There's also a possibility like someone like let's say Amazon, who has successfully using their A six for a while now, are have also started to offer those to their own cloud customers as an alternative to Nvidia's GPUs that are running in Amazon's cloud, So that is definitely a risk. However, this the AA rarely, we think is in the early innings. What it means is, as of this point, neither their customers, their direct customers are slowing down the buying our media chips. Neither are their customers customers are slowing down using of Nvidia chips. So in the near term you might see both in Vidia's GPUs and A six continue to grow significantly cause because there's a lot of demand appetite. But once this sort of demand rarely matures, that is when we'll really see that fight for each dollar spend.

Wow.

Wow.

And there's no end, no view right now of when that will happen, that slow down, not yet anyway.

And there's no end, no view right now of when that will happen, that slow down, not yet anyway.

No, we're I mean, we keep that's the biggest question we get, right and we keep a very close eye on it every quarter. And as we have seen from Q three earnings from most of its largest customers, most of the enterprise. The appetite has actually increased, if you might even believe that in twenty twenty five looks like another recorder in terms of CAPEX spend for these AI GPUs and hardware and unbelievable.

No, we're I mean, we keep that's the biggest question we get, right and we keep a very close eye on it every quarter. And as we have seen from Q three earnings from most of its largest customers, most of the enterprise. The appetite has actually increased, if you might even believe that in twenty twenty five looks like another recorder in terms of CAPEX spend for these AI GPUs and hardware and unbelievable.

Now we know all these other companies, these big tech companies, small tech companies.

Now we know all these other companies, these big tech companies, small tech companies.

Where they're putting.

Where they're putting.

Their CAPEX is in AI. Where is Nvidia putting their capex?

Their CAPEX is in AI. Where is Nvidia putting their capex?

Well, yeah, so you know since the launch of its first sort of aserver GPUs, which was called the MPa product line. So, first of all, in media, as a fablus semicinetor company, what it means is does not manufacture or produce its own shifts. So usually these fablust companies do not spend a lot in CAPEX. They spend a lot more in op x. Their CAPEX is generally just you know, having test equipments, packaging equipments, and just R and D equipments needed to develop their products and their chips.

Well, yeah, so you know since the launch of its first sort of aserver GPUs, which was called the MPa product line. So, first of all, in media, as a fablus semicinetor company, what it means is does not manufacture or produce its own shifts. So usually these fablust companies do not spend a lot in CAPEX. They spend a lot more in op x. Their CAPEX is generally just you know, having test equipments, packaging equipments, and just R and D equipments needed to develop their products and their chips.

Well, Nvidia third quarter earnings out this Wednesday are thanks to Kon John Sobonnie Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analyst. We move next to a look at the uneven US housing market with existing sales for the month of October that is out this Thursday. Also, what earnings from Home Depot last week and from Low's this Tuesday tell us about the US housing market. And for more we're joined by Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analyst. Drew bottom line, existing home sales not doing well, on track for the worst year since twenty ten. That's according to the National Association of Realtors. So what gives and what are you expecting for the month of October.

Well, Nvidia third quarter earnings out this Wednesday are thanks to Kon John Sobonnie Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analyst. We move next to a look at the uneven US housing market with existing sales for the month of October that is out this Thursday. Also, what earnings from Home Depot last week and from Low's this Tuesday tell us about the US housing market. And for more we're joined by Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analyst. Drew bottom line, existing home sales not doing well, on track for the worst year since twenty ten. That's according to the National Association of Realtors. So what gives and what are you expecting for the month of October.

So we do think we could see some improvement in existing home sales in October, and that's really reflective of the more favorable mortgage rate environment that we had during September. Remember these are contract closing, so there's typically a thirty to sixty day like from when a deal is signed. That being said, the date is going to be stale before it even comes out. I mean the rate when a thirty year mortgage has gone from the lowes six percent range in September to above seven percent in just a matter of weeks. Despite the FED cutting rates, the total seventy five basis points, and we've seen demand EBB and flow with these fluctuations. So we think you could see some improvement reflecting September, but like we said, we think it's going to be stale and there's going to be pressure going forward. If we zoom out just a little bit, look at the bigger picture. Existing home sales continue to sit below a four million analyzed rate, and current activity is the lowest in over a decade, and that really afflects the affordability picture, which continues to hover near historically at the levels.

So we do think we could see some improvement in existing home sales in October, and that's really reflective of the more favorable mortgage rate environment that we had during September. Remember these are contract closing, so there's typically a thirty to sixty day like from when a deal is signed. That being said, the date is going to be stale before it even comes out. I mean the rate when a thirty year mortgage has gone from the lowes six percent range in September to above seven percent in just a matter of weeks. Despite the FED cutting rates, the total seventy five basis points, and we've seen demand EBB and flow with these fluctuations. So we think you could see some improvement reflecting September, but like we said, we think it's going to be stale and there's going to be pressure going forward. If we zoom out just a little bit, look at the bigger picture. Existing home sales continue to sit below a four million analyzed rate, and current activity is the lowest in over a decade, and that really afflects the affordability picture, which continues to hover near historically at the levels.

I mean those record high prices on homes, mortgage rates as you said back, you know, near seven percent, but also the cost of home ownership, right insurance, maintenance, lawn care, upgrades for furniture, and more.

I mean those record high prices on homes, mortgage rates as you said back, you know, near seven percent, but also the cost of home ownership, right insurance, maintenance, lawn care, upgrades for furniture, and more.

Yeah, it's a good point, and it's a combination of all those factors. And I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned prices, because mortgage rates get a lot of attention, particularly when we pay such close attention to what the FED is going to do. But home prices are up over fifty percent prior to the pandemic, and payments have become increasingly disconnected from incomes. We did an analysis that shows that property values we need to fall about thirty percent for monthly payments relative to incomes to return to historical levels. So we're not saying that you're going to see that type of decline at the national level in the near term, but I think it illustrates the problem. So we're going to need some combination of you know, maybe prices coming down a bit, rates moderating, and then further income growth in order to get things headed in the right direction. And it's probably going to take some time.

Yeah, it's a good point, and it's a combination of all those factors. And I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned prices, because mortgage rates get a lot of attention, particularly when we pay such close attention to what the FED is going to do. But home prices are up over fifty percent prior to the pandemic, and payments have become increasingly disconnected from incomes. We did an analysis that shows that property values we need to fall about thirty percent for monthly payments relative to incomes to return to historical levels. So we're not saying that you're going to see that type of decline at the national level in the near term, but I think it illustrates the problem. So we're going to need some combination of you know, maybe prices coming down a bit, rates moderating, and then further income growth in order to get things headed in the right direction. And it's probably going to take some time.

Yeah, I mean, besides what we saw in two thousand and eight, what can bring the price of these homes to a more reasonable level.

Yeah, I mean, besides what we saw in two thousand and eight, what can bring the price of these homes to a more reasonable level.

Well, I think one thing you're starting to see is that we're having more inventory come to market. You know, the lack of resale inventory has been one of the key themes really over the last several years, and it's been one of the reasons why the new home market has done so well. But if we look in some markets around the country, in Texas and in Florida, we're starting to see inventory levels which are approaching or exceeding those in twenty nineteen. And it's due to the fact that you have weaker demands, so homes are sitting on the market longer and you also have more starting to come to market. So as we get that build up, we think that's going to put some downward pressure on prices.

Well, I think one thing you're starting to see is that we're having more inventory come to market. You know, the lack of resale inventory has been one of the key themes really over the last several years, and it's been one of the reasons why the new home market has done so well. But if we look in some markets around the country, in Texas and in Florida, we're starting to see inventory levels which are approaching or exceeding those in twenty nineteen. And it's due to the fact that you have weaker demands, so homes are sitting on the market longer and you also have more starting to come to market. So as we get that build up, we think that's going to put some downward pressure on prices.

So you think we're still going to see a shift in population to sun Belt states where where the last four years they've exploded in home sales, home building, or is it going to even off other parts of the country maybe.

So you think we're still going to see a shift in population to sun Belt states where where the last four years they've exploded in home sales, home building, or is it going to even off other parts of the country maybe.

Well, I think that's still where you're going to see the population over time continue to grow. That's where, at least on a relative basis, affordability is. That's where a majority of the jobs are compared to some of the slower markets in the Midwest and the Northeast. And that's why you see that the builders continue to grow there. That's where they continue to expand their communities and purchase more land because we do think that, you know, bigger picture and longer term, that's where a lot of the growth in the country will be.

Well, I think that's still where you're going to see the population over time continue to grow. That's where, at least on a relative basis, affordability is. That's where a majority of the jobs are compared to some of the slower markets in the Midwest and the Northeast. And that's why you see that the builders continue to grow there. That's where they continue to expand their communities and purchase more land because we do think that, you know, bigger picture and longer term, that's where a lot of the growth in the country will be.

Well, let's hope we see more. Hey, I want to pivot to last week.

Well, let's hope we see more. Hey, I want to pivot to last week.

Now, we got home depots earnings better than foregasts, even though sales actually down again. That boost and sales though mostly for the wrong reason on storms and and you know, and extended warmer weather what does that tell us about the market, the housing market, And you know, I look ahead, if you can to Low's earnings, is it going to tell us the same thing this week?

Now, we got home depots earnings better than foregasts, even though sales actually down again. That boost and sales though mostly for the wrong reason on storms and and you know, and extended warmer weather what does that tell us about the market, the housing market, And you know, I look ahead, if you can to Low's earnings, is it going to tell us the same thing this week?

Yeah, So starting with Lows, we're looking for a low single digit decline in same store sales, which would be the eighth straight quarter of declining seam store sales. You know, there could be some upside to the numbers based on what we did hear from Home Depot. As you mentioned, we've had warm, dry weather across you know, most of the country for the last several months, and that's provide a better than expected lift to some of the seasonal and outdoor categories, you know, and you also pointed to the hurricane activity. Home Depot called out a two hundred million dollar benefit related to the storms, you know, as they sold more items such as you know, Lombard generators, and that contributed about fifty basis points seam store sales. Now, we think Lows could see an even barre lift from the storms just given their exposure to some of the impacted markets. They've got about twenty five percent of their store base in those Southern states compared to about eighteen percent for Home Depot. But you know, stepping back when we think about the core business. While it does appear to be maybe bouncing along the bottom and stabilizing a little bit, and you know, comps will certainly be easier in coming quarters, there's still some headwinds out there. You have, you know, consumers who continue to grapple with the cumulative impact of inflation. Over the last couple of years, both companies have called out more cautious consumers due to economic uncertainty. And as we've discussed, housing activity is extremely depressed. You've got you know, volumes at the lowest level and over a decade, there's still some difficulties out there for the industry.

Yeah, So starting with Lows, we're looking for a low single digit decline in same store sales, which would be the eighth straight quarter of declining seam store sales. You know, there could be some upside to the numbers based on what we did hear from Home Depot. As you mentioned, we've had warm, dry weather across you know, most of the country for the last several months, and that's provide a better than expected lift to some of the seasonal and outdoor categories, you know, and you also pointed to the hurricane activity. Home Depot called out a two hundred million dollar benefit related to the storms, you know, as they sold more items such as you know, Lombard generators, and that contributed about fifty basis points seam store sales. Now, we think Lows could see an even barre lift from the storms just given their exposure to some of the impacted markets. They've got about twenty five percent of their store base in those Southern states compared to about eighteen percent for Home Depot. But you know, stepping back when we think about the core business. While it does appear to be maybe bouncing along the bottom and stabilizing a little bit, and you know, comps will certainly be easier in coming quarters, there's still some headwinds out there. You have, you know, consumers who continue to grapple with the cumulative impact of inflation. Over the last couple of years, both companies have called out more cautious consumers due to economic uncertainty. And as we've discussed, housing activity is extremely depressed. You've got you know, volumes at the lowest level and over a decade, there's still some difficulties out there for the industry.

Lows Q three earnings out on Tuesday, October. Existing home sales out on Thursday. Our thanks to Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analysts, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll look ahead to the Group of Twenty Leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program will look ahead to the pboc's upcoming great Decision. But first G twenty leaders gather in Rio de Janio, Brazil, this Monday and Tuesday for what'll surely be US President Joe biden swansong as focus shifts to President elect Trump's return now, despite the threat of Trump tariffs dealing with a more volatile White House.

Lows Q three earnings out on Tuesday, October. Existing home sales out on Thursday. Our thanks to Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analysts, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll look ahead to the Group of Twenty Leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program will look ahead to the pboc's upcoming great Decision. But first G twenty leaders gather in Rio de Janio, Brazil, this Monday and Tuesday for what'll surely be US President Joe biden swansong as focus shifts to President elect Trump's return now, despite the threat of Trump tariffs dealing with a more volatile White House.

For Europe, the.

For Europe, the.

Issue of top concern is Ukraine. For more, Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepgar Tom.

Issue of top concern is Ukraine. For more, Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepgar Tom.

The geopolitical landscape has already shifted radically as the world awaits a Trump white House and Republican control of the US government. The Biden administration is rushing aid to Ukraine in its final weeks in power, with US Sector of State Ashley blinkn say that every dollar we have at our disposal is being pushed to Ukraine, but others are getting cold feet, like South Korea having second thoughts about the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine. Now, the President elect pledged on the campaign trail to end the war within twenty four hours by getting Russia and Ukraine to negotiate in a moment, I'm going to get the view on what to expect from the group of twenty leaders who are meeting in Brazil with Bloomberg Sylvia Westall. But first I wanted to bring you two perspectives on these security challenges now facing Europe. The former NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg has been discussing this with Bloomberg's farcin in Laqua. She asked him about Donald Trump's claim that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day.

The geopolitical landscape has already shifted radically as the world awaits a Trump white House and Republican control of the US government. The Biden administration is rushing aid to Ukraine in its final weeks in power, with US Sector of State Ashley blinkn say that every dollar we have at our disposal is being pushed to Ukraine, but others are getting cold feet, like South Korea having second thoughts about the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine. Now, the President elect pledged on the campaign trail to end the war within twenty four hours by getting Russia and Ukraine to negotiate in a moment, I'm going to get the view on what to expect from the group of twenty leaders who are meeting in Brazil with Bloomberg Sylvia Westall. But first I wanted to bring you two perspectives on these security challenges now facing Europe. The former NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg has been discussing this with Bloomberg's farcin in Laqua. She asked him about Donald Trump's claim that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day.

The quickest way to end the war is to do so war, but that will not bring peace, That will bring occupation of Ukraine, and it will make the whole world more dangerous because a message tend to pressent Purteen but also the other authoritarian leaders is that when they use force, when they invade in all the country, they get what they want. So it's in our security interest to ensure that the Ukraine prevails. So the challenge is to end the war in a way that doesn't need you occupation, but to end the war in a way where Ukraine prevails as a suffiate, independent nation. At some stage there has to be some kind of political negotiated solution. But you know, what happens around the negotiating table is so close a link to the strength on the battlefield. So if you want a negotiated solution to the war where you Ukraine prevails as a democratic state in Europe, then we need to provide military support to Ukraine.

The quickest way to end the war is to do so war, but that will not bring peace, That will bring occupation of Ukraine, and it will make the whole world more dangerous because a message tend to pressent Purteen but also the other authoritarian leaders is that when they use force, when they invade in all the country, they get what they want. So it's in our security interest to ensure that the Ukraine prevails. So the challenge is to end the war in a way that doesn't need you occupation, but to end the war in a way where Ukraine prevails as a suffiate, independent nation. At some stage there has to be some kind of political negotiated solution. But you know, what happens around the negotiating table is so close a link to the strength on the battlefield. So if you want a negotiated solution to the war where you Ukraine prevails as a democratic state in Europe, then we need to provide military support to Ukraine.

So what does that look like, that solution And is there a danger that the US actually you know, manages to cobble something together, some kind of agreement without the guarantee from the US side of Ukraine's sovereignty.

So what does that look like, that solution And is there a danger that the US actually you know, manages to cobble something together, some kind of agreement without the guarantee from the US side of Ukraine's sovereignty.

Well, it's for Ukrainians to decide what will be would be acceptable solution, but there has to be at least two elements. One is a line agreed. But second, when such a line is agreed, then we need to ensure that actually it stops there because we have agreed or the Ukrainians have agreed lines with Russia before when they annexed Cramea. I'm back in twenty fourteen, we had something called minskwom there was a line. Then Russia violated that and we've got Minsk to a line further west, and then the Russian waited for seven years and invade on the full scale Ukraine. So we cannot have what theyre called Minsk Tree, yet another line which is not respected. So when a line is agreed, we need some kind of guarantee that Russia doesn't continue after reorganizing their troops and THEREFO. We need either to arm the Ukrainian so they can deter your future reggression themselves, and or some kind of security guarantees. And NATO membership is of course the ultimate security garante for Ukraine.

Well, it's for Ukrainians to decide what will be would be acceptable solution, but there has to be at least two elements. One is a line agreed. But second, when such a line is agreed, then we need to ensure that actually it stops there because we have agreed or the Ukrainians have agreed lines with Russia before when they annexed Cramea. I'm back in twenty fourteen, we had something called minskwom there was a line. Then Russia violated that and we've got Minsk to a line further west, and then the Russian waited for seven years and invade on the full scale Ukraine. So we cannot have what theyre called Minsk Tree, yet another line which is not respected. So when a line is agreed, we need some kind of guarantee that Russia doesn't continue after reorganizing their troops and THEREFO. We need either to arm the Ukrainian so they can deter your future reggression themselves, and or some kind of security guarantees. And NATO membership is of course the ultimate security garante for Ukraine.

That was the former NATO boss ya In Stoltenberg speaking to Bloomberg's farc In Laqua. Let's get another view now from Finland, which joined NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Finnish President Alexander Stubb has been speaking into Bloomberg's Jumana Bisecchi after his call with the US president elect. She asked him about his expectations for the second Trump presidency.

That was the former NATO boss ya In Stoltenberg speaking to Bloomberg's farc In Laqua. Let's get another view now from Finland, which joined NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Finnish President Alexander Stubb has been speaking into Bloomberg's Jumana Bisecchi after his call with the US president elect. She asked him about his expectations for the second Trump presidency.

Of course, focused very much on US foreign policy under Trump, and I think his agenda is quite clear.

Of course, focused very much on US foreign policy under Trump, and I think his agenda is quite clear.

He talks about ending the war.

He talks about ending the war.

In Ukraine, so we discussed that, it talks about ending the war in the Middle East. He talks about the US as a competitor to China.

In Ukraine, so we discussed that, it talks about ending the war in the Middle East. He talks about the US as a competitor to China.

We talked about that.

We talked about that.

He talked about Europe taking more responsibility for its own defense and security. We talked about that, so I think it's pretty clear speak when you talk about American foreign posit Then of course there will be challenges. You know, tariffs can be a challenge, climate issues can be a challenge. But the truth is that throughout history of the United States and Europe have usually seen eye to eye, and I'm sure we'll be doing that again in the next four years.

He talked about Europe taking more responsibility for its own defense and security. We talked about that, so I think it's pretty clear speak when you talk about American foreign posit Then of course there will be challenges. You know, tariffs can be a challenge, climate issues can be a challenge. But the truth is that throughout history of the United States and Europe have usually seen eye to eye, and I'm sure we'll be doing that again in the next four years.

Do you expect perhaps this next turn to be less combative towards Europe.

Do you expect perhaps this next turn to be less combative towards Europe.

I think the United States needs Europe, but Europe needs to understand that the United States has changed. That means that we need to take more responsibility for what we do, for instance, in terms of security. And when that happens, I think the United States, whose number one competitor is China, will look at Europe and say, okay, about twenty twenty five percent of our allies are right there in Europe. Let's play ball with those guys.

I think the United States needs Europe, but Europe needs to understand that the United States has changed. That means that we need to take more responsibility for what we do, for instance, in terms of security. And when that happens, I think the United States, whose number one competitor is China, will look at Europe and say, okay, about twenty twenty five percent of our allies are right there in Europe. Let's play ball with those guys.

Can I just pick up on Ukraine. I know you spoke about it with President Trump, and he seems to think that he can secure peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. If that does happen, what is the likelihood that it's done in a way that's just unfair for Ukraine.

Can I just pick up on Ukraine. I know you spoke about it with President Trump, and he seems to think that he can secure peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. If that does happen, what is the likelihood that it's done in a way that's just unfair for Ukraine.

Well, in my mind, Ukraine needs four things. One is territory, and here we don't know where things are going to settle. The second one is security guarantees, so probably territory and security guarantees in these negotiations will go hand in hand, and of course in my mind eventually EU membership and NATO membership. The third one is justice, so Russian war criminals indicted. And then the low hanging fruit is actually number four, which is reconstruction.

Well, in my mind, Ukraine needs four things. One is territory, and here we don't know where things are going to settle. The second one is security guarantees, so probably territory and security guarantees in these negotiations will go hand in hand, and of course in my mind eventually EU membership and NATO membership. The third one is justice, so Russian war criminals indicted. And then the low hanging fruit is actually number four, which is reconstruction.

It's difficult to say at this stage, but I.

It's difficult to say at this stage, but I.

Think we in Europe and the rest of the world needs to understand that Donald Trump is very serious about getting a piece deal sooner rather than later. I have myself said that there's a window of opportunity for these negotiations between the election and the inauguration day. Let's see what happens.

Think we in Europe and the rest of the world needs to understand that Donald Trump is very serious about getting a piece deal sooner rather than later. I have myself said that there's a window of opportunity for these negotiations between the election and the inauguration day. Let's see what happens.

That was Finland's President Alexander Stubb speaking to Bloomberg's Jimana Bisecchi at the COP twenty nine Climate conference in Baku in Azerbaijan. More than two and a half years into the war, Ukraine has steadily lost territory to Russia. There are preliminary plans for a meeting between the Ukrainian President Vlodomi Zelenski and President elect Trump, according to Kiev's top diplomat, but no timing. Bloomberg's managing editor for Russia, the Middle East, and Africa Economy and Government, Sylvia Westall, has been taking me through what to expect from the Group of twenty gathering in Latin America and how much Ukraine will feature.

That was Finland's President Alexander Stubb speaking to Bloomberg's Jimana Bisecchi at the COP twenty nine Climate conference in Baku in Azerbaijan. More than two and a half years into the war, Ukraine has steadily lost territory to Russia. There are preliminary plans for a meeting between the Ukrainian President Vlodomi Zelenski and President elect Trump, according to Kiev's top diplomat, but no timing. Bloomberg's managing editor for Russia, the Middle East, and Africa Economy and Government, Sylvia Westall, has been taking me through what to expect from the Group of twenty gathering in Latin America and how much Ukraine will feature.

It's an interesting G twenty, and it's obviously a big showcase for Lula. It's always sort of, you know, the leaders try and shape kind of what they want this to be about. I mean, Brazil's made it quite clear that they want this summit not to really focus on things like wars, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the current conflicts in the Middle East, and they want to look at things like trade and climate and finance. But of course, because of world events, other things are going to dominate, and one of those things, as you mentioned before, is Donald Trump. Of course, so you've got Biden and She planning to meet, but really the focus is on Trump and what happens next. So in that sense, it's a kind of chickyd twenty for Brazil to handle because all the kind of topics it wants to focus on are kind of being overtaken by events, both you know, in the US and elsewhere in the world.

It's an interesting G twenty, and it's obviously a big showcase for Lula. It's always sort of, you know, the leaders try and shape kind of what they want this to be about. I mean, Brazil's made it quite clear that they want this summit not to really focus on things like wars, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the current conflicts in the Middle East, and they want to look at things like trade and climate and finance. But of course, because of world events, other things are going to dominate, and one of those things, as you mentioned before, is Donald Trump. Of course, so you've got Biden and She planning to meet, but really the focus is on Trump and what happens next. So in that sense, it's a kind of chickyd twenty for Brazil to handle because all the kind of topics it wants to focus on are kind of being overtaken by events, both you know, in the US and elsewhere in the world.

Ukraine's European allies have been concerned that Trump will pull the plug on the embattled country and push the burden to Europe. Do we expect a major policy shift?

Ukraine's European allies have been concerned that Trump will pull the plug on the embattled country and push the burden to Europe. Do we expect a major policy shift?

Well, Ukraine at the moment, according to you know, some of the officials we've talked to in preparations for the G twenty, isn't really figuring very hard on the agenda again because Brazil doesn't really want it to and we know that. You know, there have been discussions each D twenty whether presidents Zelenski will actually turn up or do a virtual address. It doesn't look like that's going to happen this one. You know, in the last G twenty, Ukraine was a very prickly topic, and so you know, Ukraine is very worried looking at the G twenty and further on into the Trump era that Trump, you know, will apply pressure on it to give up land in peace talks with Russia and cut back on this financial and military support. I think that risk is there, and you know, that's happening as you know, Russia's making this sort of important headway on the ground in Ukraine. So Russia feels it's in a stronger position right now. And you know, the big question is whether you know Ukraine, you know will well, whether the US will eventually allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory with Western arms. But I do think actually on the Russian side as well, there is concern about what that Trump era might bring. So I think the G twenty probably isn't going to offer and many clues as to where Ukraine's where that is going, but it's definitely going to highlight some of the concerns that countries involve have.

Well, Ukraine at the moment, according to you know, some of the officials we've talked to in preparations for the G twenty, isn't really figuring very hard on the agenda again because Brazil doesn't really want it to and we know that. You know, there have been discussions each D twenty whether presidents Zelenski will actually turn up or do a virtual address. It doesn't look like that's going to happen this one. You know, in the last G twenty, Ukraine was a very prickly topic, and so you know, Ukraine is very worried looking at the G twenty and further on into the Trump era that Trump, you know, will apply pressure on it to give up land in peace talks with Russia and cut back on this financial and military support. I think that risk is there, and you know, that's happening as you know, Russia's making this sort of important headway on the ground in Ukraine. So Russia feels it's in a stronger position right now. And you know, the big question is whether you know Ukraine, you know will well, whether the US will eventually allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory with Western arms. But I do think actually on the Russian side as well, there is concern about what that Trump era might bring. So I think the G twenty probably isn't going to offer and many clues as to where Ukraine's where that is going, but it's definitely going to highlight some of the concerns that countries involve have.

In terms of Trump's stance. What about the Middle East as well, obviously hoping that Trump's returned to the White House will help in terms of cooperation for them in the Middle East on diplomacy and other issues. Again, how much will that features, you say, the hosts of the G twenty gathering sort of don't really want conflicts to dominate. How much will we hear about the Middle East?

In terms of Trump's stance. What about the Middle East as well, obviously hoping that Trump's returned to the White House will help in terms of cooperation for them in the Middle East on diplomacy and other issues. Again, how much will that features, you say, the hosts of the G twenty gathering sort of don't really want conflicts to dominate. How much will we hear about the Middle East?

Mm hmm, Well, I think it was going to have to come up because it is you know, this you know, still going on, and this the conflict's spread now into Lebelon with the violence between Hezbolla and Israel. I think, you know, as as we look forward to to the Trump administration. Trump applied this maximum pressure policy towards Iran and when he was last in the White House, and that definitely stoked tensions in the region. And so the expectation is that that's coming up. So I think there's gonna be a lot of you know, looking forward, you know, towards questions about whether there can be any kind of cease fire between Israel and Hezbolla, what can be happening next, and this quite big question mark over where that policy will head in the US and whether you know, these appointments of these sort of very sort of pro Israel members to Trump's administration will mean that that kind of aggravates tensions in the Middle East and alienates Arab countries as well.

Mm hmm, Well, I think it was going to have to come up because it is you know, this you know, still going on, and this the conflict's spread now into Lebelon with the violence between Hezbolla and Israel. I think, you know, as as we look forward to to the Trump administration. Trump applied this maximum pressure policy towards Iran and when he was last in the White House, and that definitely stoked tensions in the region. And so the expectation is that that's coming up. So I think there's gonna be a lot of you know, looking forward, you know, towards questions about whether there can be any kind of cease fire between Israel and Hezbolla, what can be happening next, and this quite big question mark over where that policy will head in the US and whether you know, these appointments of these sort of very sort of pro Israel members to Trump's administration will mean that that kind of aggravates tensions in the Middle East and alienates Arab countries as well.

Russia's Varn Minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending the summit in Brazil on Monday and Tuesday, representing Russia, not Putin himself. Why and what will be Russia's role here?

Russia's Varn Minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending the summit in Brazil on Monday and Tuesday, representing Russia, not Putin himself. Why and what will be Russia's role here?

Sure, so it's very difficult for Putin to turn up pop up in places around the world because of this International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes due to the invasion of Ukraine. He also has skipped several meetings you know, elsewhere in the world that included in South Africa. South Africa politely asked Putin not to turn up because these countries like Brazil as well, would be obligated to arrest him under those rules of the ICC. So you know, that's Lavov is usually the person who takes his place. You know, Russia has been using these international events like the Bricks that it hosted earlier this year in Russia and elsewhere to show that Russia is not isolated from the world, though of course, if Putin can't turn up to these events, it does showcases isolation. So I think Russia will be using that as a platform to justify its invasion of Ukraine, explain its perspective on what it thinks will happen next. And it's definitely Russia's definitely in a position of a bit more strength right now because of what's happening on the battlefield and the expectation that despite the big uncertainties about what Trump will bring that his stance on Ukraine will perhaps be beneficial to Russia.

Sure, so it's very difficult for Putin to turn up pop up in places around the world because of this International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes due to the invasion of Ukraine. He also has skipped several meetings you know, elsewhere in the world that included in South Africa. South Africa politely asked Putin not to turn up because these countries like Brazil as well, would be obligated to arrest him under those rules of the ICC. So you know, that's Lavov is usually the person who takes his place. You know, Russia has been using these international events like the Bricks that it hosted earlier this year in Russia and elsewhere to show that Russia is not isolated from the world, though of course, if Putin can't turn up to these events, it does showcases isolation. So I think Russia will be using that as a platform to justify its invasion of Ukraine, explain its perspective on what it thinks will happen next. And it's definitely Russia's definitely in a position of a bit more strength right now because of what's happening on the battlefield and the expectation that despite the big uncertainties about what Trump will bring that his stance on Ukraine will perhaps be beneficial to Russia.

That was Sylvia west Or, Bloomberg's managing editor for Russia, the Middle East and Africa, Economy and government. European Union leaders are trying to work out whether they can keep the Ukrainian war effort going if Trump decides to shut off support from the US. Certainly much in the world is being reconsidered after the presidential election, and potentially with big consequences for Europe. I'm Caroline Hepge here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning for Blueberg Daybreak. You're at beginning at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street. Tom.

That was Sylvia west Or, Bloomberg's managing editor for Russia, the Middle East and Africa, Economy and government. European Union leaders are trying to work out whether they can keep the Ukrainian war effort going if Trump decides to shut off support from the US. Certainly much in the world is being reconsidered after the presidential election, and potentially with big consequences for Europe. I'm Caroline Hepge here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning for Blueberg Daybreak. You're at beginning at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street. Tom.

Thank you, Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend to look ahead to a rate decision this week from the PBOC. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. This week of big decision on rates from the People's Bank of China. For more, let's go to Daybreak Asia podcast host Doug Krisner.

Thank you, Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend to look ahead to a rate decision this week from the PBOC. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. This week of big decision on rates from the People's Bank of China. For more, let's go to Daybreak Asia podcast host Doug Krisner.

Tom.

Tom.

Since late September, the Chinese government has launched coordinated support focused on lifting economic growth and fighting deflation, and recently taxes for both home buyers and property developers have been cut as the government tries to put a floor under falling prices. Now in the week ahead, the Chinese Central Bank will set its rate policy. For a preview, I'm joined by Eric Ju, who covers China for Bloomberg Economics. Eric joins us from our studios in Hong Kong. Eric, thanks for your time. We recently got the inflation data for China, and I'm going to ask you to start there. Consumer prices, for example, showing their first pickup in the core rate since April, and I was reading some of your analysis. You called it an encouraging sign in an otherwise weak report. Perhaps a little more troubling the fact that factory gay deflation deepened. Is this something the PBOC must consider at its next meeting.

Since late September, the Chinese government has launched coordinated support focused on lifting economic growth and fighting deflation, and recently taxes for both home buyers and property developers have been cut as the government tries to put a floor under falling prices. Now in the week ahead, the Chinese Central Bank will set its rate policy. For a preview, I'm joined by Eric Ju, who covers China for Bloomberg Economics. Eric joins us from our studios in Hong Kong. Eric, thanks for your time. We recently got the inflation data for China, and I'm going to ask you to start there. Consumer prices, for example, showing their first pickup in the core rate since April, and I was reading some of your analysis. You called it an encouraging sign in an otherwise weak report. Perhaps a little more troubling the fact that factory gay deflation deepened. Is this something the PBOC must consider at its next meeting.

I think PBOC has signaled recently that, you know, the price has become more important for their partitition. I think one of their targets is, of course, except for you know, supporting the recovery, they really want to you know, get inflation.

I think PBOC has signaled recently that, you know, the price has become more important for their partitition. I think one of their targets is, of course, except for you know, supporting the recovery, they really want to you know, get inflation.

Get it.

Get it.

Call me out of the risk of deflation. So I think they would try you know, their best, you know, to try to boost the prices up. But I think PBOC alone is unable to fulfill that goal. We do need you know, other department like especially physical policy also to work their way. So it's it's not only the pibis's own job.

Call me out of the risk of deflation. So I think they would try you know, their best, you know, to try to boost the prices up. But I think PBOC alone is unable to fulfill that goal. We do need you know, other department like especially physical policy also to work their way. So it's it's not only the pibis's own job.

What about the stimulus measures that Beijing has already rolled out, how would you evaluate them?

What about the stimulus measures that Beijing has already rolled out, how would you evaluate them?

First of all, it's a big shift. It's not only from our economics view, we also you know, chat with investors, with clients and all the people. Most of people think since late September there is a big party shift, which signals that the government is not now willing, you know, really willing to fix the economic issues. They have rolled out you know, a couple of different measures, and I think one encouraging science. They also started to you know, address some structural issues, not only you know, short term cyclical things like you know, local government death swap. They're also trying to also fix some oversupply in the housing market. So they start to address those problems. But I think one remaining concern is still soon they can you know, really deliver those policies. They have made a lot of announcement. They have committed to do this, commit to do that. But I think on the ground the people were still you know, looking for you know, it's special for local governments. How are they going to really deliver those policies. I think the October data has shown some initial rebound, but I think that's more related to some sentiment.

First of all, it's a big shift. It's not only from our economics view, we also you know, chat with investors, with clients and all the people. Most of people think since late September there is a big party shift, which signals that the government is not now willing, you know, really willing to fix the economic issues. They have rolled out you know, a couple of different measures, and I think one encouraging science. They also started to you know, address some structural issues, not only you know, short term cyclical things like you know, local government death swap. They're also trying to also fix some oversupply in the housing market. So they start to address those problems. But I think one remaining concern is still soon they can you know, really deliver those policies. They have made a lot of announcement. They have committed to do this, commit to do that. But I think on the ground the people were still you know, looking for you know, it's special for local governments. How are they going to really deliver those policies. I think the October data has shown some initial rebound, but I think that's more related to some sentiment.

This is coming at a very interesting time because we have a new administration in the US. It will be taking office in January when Donald Trump is sworn in for the second time. One of the things that he has discussed mightily is tariffs on imported goods from China. Now we know that the export sector has been a bright spot for the Chinese economy. To what extent is there risk here right now with some more tariffs.

This is coming at a very interesting time because we have a new administration in the US. It will be taking office in January when Donald Trump is sworn in for the second time. One of the things that he has discussed mightily is tariffs on imported goods from China. Now we know that the export sector has been a bright spot for the Chinese economy. To what extent is there risk here right now with some more tariffs.

I think it's a real risk, and it can be a very big risk because of course we don't know how the details yet, the timetable, so how Trump is going to start his terriiff, But definitely we think we'll look we're expecting probably another the second you know, the trade war in his second term. But what's the only thing uncertain is whether we're going to get you know, sixty percent teriff like Trump had said during his campaign. So if that's sixty percent, I think that will be a very big risk because we have some model that predicting a sixty percent tariff can essentially, you know, reduce China US trade basically, you know, near to zero. So that's a very big shot to economy. But in the end, we think probably we won't get that as high as that. You know, there still will be negotiation, there will still be bargaining. So the final result is still highly uncertain at this point. But we think China will be you know, preparing for the worst scenario, and they're also you know, we're planning for what kind of retaliation China will do, what kind of solutions they can do to you know, try to mitigate, to reduce the tariffing pat as much as you can.

I think it's a real risk, and it can be a very big risk because of course we don't know how the details yet, the timetable, so how Trump is going to start his terriiff, But definitely we think we'll look we're expecting probably another the second you know, the trade war in his second term. But what's the only thing uncertain is whether we're going to get you know, sixty percent teriff like Trump had said during his campaign. So if that's sixty percent, I think that will be a very big risk because we have some model that predicting a sixty percent tariff can essentially, you know, reduce China US trade basically, you know, near to zero. So that's a very big shot to economy. But in the end, we think probably we won't get that as high as that. You know, there still will be negotiation, there will still be bargaining. So the final result is still highly uncertain at this point. But we think China will be you know, preparing for the worst scenario, and they're also you know, we're planning for what kind of retaliation China will do, what kind of solutions they can do to you know, try to mitigate, to reduce the tariffing pat as much as you can.

Yeah, there's been a lot of questioning as to whether or not this is really the beginning of the negotiating strategy. Do you think there is room between Washington and Beijing to negotiate a trade policy that benefits both parties equally?

Yeah, there's been a lot of questioning as to whether or not this is really the beginning of the negotiating strategy. Do you think there is room between Washington and Beijing to negotiate a trade policy that benefits both parties equally?

I think so.

I think so.

I think so. I think there's still room for negotiation at least, you know, China probably compared to the first time Trump poarding office, China would have no more tools, you know, to retaliate, including more exports control, you know, and those rare materials. China has most of the outputs. So I think also considering that Trump has to consider what's a tariff impact on the domestic economy as well, Right, if you impose such a high tariff, that would definitely also influence your domestic consumers. So I think at the end Trump's side will also do some calculation, right, kinds of goods wanting post that will have the minimum impact on my own colomy. And at the same time, China would also, you know, try to negotiate you to try to have something on a table. Tellian Trump, so what we're going to retaliate if you do this, if you do that, and let's see what negotiation can go on.

I think so. I think there's still room for negotiation at least, you know, China probably compared to the first time Trump poarding office, China would have no more tools, you know, to retaliate, including more exports control, you know, and those rare materials. China has most of the outputs. So I think also considering that Trump has to consider what's a tariff impact on the domestic economy as well, Right, if you impose such a high tariff, that would definitely also influence your domestic consumers. So I think at the end Trump's side will also do some calculation, right, kinds of goods wanting post that will have the minimum impact on my own colomy. And at the same time, China would also, you know, try to negotiate you to try to have something on a table. Tellian Trump, so what we're going to retaliate if you do this, if you do that, and let's see what negotiation can go on.

Eric, thanks so much for being with us. S Bloomberg's Eric jew who covers China for Bloomberg Economics. We move next to geopolitics and the upcoming G twenty summit in Riodesian Narro, Brazil. The list of attendees reflects major changes in leadership among several member nations. Mexico's new president Claudia Schinbaum will be there, as will Britain's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A weekend German Chancellor all Off Schultz will attend, along with the Lane Duck, US President Joe Biden and the shadow of his successor, President elect Donald Trump. I think it's fair to say will loom large for a closer look at what we might expect. We're joined by Daniel ten Kid.

Eric, thanks so much for being with us. S Bloomberg's Eric jew who covers China for Bloomberg Economics. We move next to geopolitics and the upcoming G twenty summit in Riodesian Narro, Brazil. The list of attendees reflects major changes in leadership among several member nations. Mexico's new president Claudia Schinbaum will be there, as will Britain's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A weekend German Chancellor all Off Schultz will attend, along with the Lane Duck, US President Joe Biden and the shadow of his successor, President elect Donald Trump. I think it's fair to say will loom large for a closer look at what we might expect. We're joined by Daniel ten Kid.

He is Asia.

He is Asia.

Ecogov, executive editor for Bloomberg News. Dan joins us from our studios in Hong Kong. The G twenty I think represents some eighty five percent of global GDP seventy five percent of world trade. It doesn't appear there is going to be a group that could challenge the G twenty, And I'm thinking of the recent summit of the Bricks Plus Nations hosted by Vladimir Putin in Kazan, Russia. Is it safe to say that there's not going to be a rival for the G twenty for some time?

Ecogov, executive editor for Bloomberg News. Dan joins us from our studios in Hong Kong. The G twenty I think represents some eighty five percent of global GDP seventy five percent of world trade. It doesn't appear there is going to be a group that could challenge the G twenty, And I'm thinking of the recent summit of the Bricks Plus Nations hosted by Vladimir Putin in Kazan, Russia. Is it safe to say that there's not going to be a rival for the G twenty for some time?

Well, the G twenty really brings these various groups together. So you have the G seven on the one hand, which is the US and its allies basically, and then you have the Bricks Plus Agreement which is grouping, which is expanding persistently, but China is really in Russia are both trying to use that group to advance their own interest and use it as a counterweight to the G seven and the US led world order. Now, the G twenty kind of brings these groups together in a lot of ways and is the only forum really that has all of them in one place, so they can really haggle over kind of the tough issues facing the globe at any given time.

Well, the G twenty really brings these various groups together. So you have the G seven on the one hand, which is the US and its allies basically, and then you have the Bricks Plus Agreement which is grouping, which is expanding persistently, but China is really in Russia are both trying to use that group to advance their own interest and use it as a counterweight to the G seven and the US led world order. Now, the G twenty kind of brings these groups together in a lot of ways and is the only forum really that has all of them in one place, so they can really haggle over kind of the tough issues facing the globe at any given time.

I was reading a piece in Foreign Affairs magazine, and one line from this piece struck me. The essence of Trump's approach to foreign policy is naked transactionalism, and that remains unchanged. Is that a fair statement?

I was reading a piece in Foreign Affairs magazine, and one line from this piece struck me. The essence of Trump's approach to foreign policy is naked transactionalism, and that remains unchanged. Is that a fair statement?

Yeah?

Yeah?

I mean we're already hearing about countries trying to say, Okay, what can we give Trump? What do we have to offer? And usually that involves what can we buy from the US? Can we buy more energy? Can we buy more corn agricultural goods? You know, you need to come in with some sort of offer with Trump. Now, there is kind of a question about whether Trump's view of tariffs has changed, and there's first term, he was talking a lot about the US trade deficit, and I think that is top of mind for Trump. But he's also talked about tariffs as a way to generate revenues in the US and to lower investment.

I mean we're already hearing about countries trying to say, Okay, what can we give Trump? What do we have to offer? And usually that involves what can we buy from the US? Can we buy more energy? Can we buy more corn agricultural goods? You know, you need to come in with some sort of offer with Trump. Now, there is kind of a question about whether Trump's view of tariffs has changed, and there's first term, he was talking a lot about the US trade deficit, and I think that is top of mind for Trump. But he's also talked about tariffs as a way to generate revenues in the US and to lower investment.

So that's a big question.

So that's a big question.

Is he going to come right out on day one with sixty percent tariffs on China and twenty percent tariffs on the rest of the world.

Is he going to come right out on day one with sixty percent tariffs on China and twenty percent tariffs on the rest of the world.

One of the things that I think that G twenty will have to deal with is the issue of Ukraine. The Biden administration took the lead on imposing sanctions on Russia and many Russian officials after Ukraine was invaded. Now we have North Korean troops joining Russian forces near the border with Ukraine. Is this going to be an important pressure point that will try to get resolved at this summit or or do you think it's it's going to take some time for clarity to emerge.

One of the things that I think that G twenty will have to deal with is the issue of Ukraine. The Biden administration took the lead on imposing sanctions on Russia and many Russian officials after Ukraine was invaded. Now we have North Korean troops joining Russian forces near the border with Ukraine. Is this going to be an important pressure point that will try to get resolved at this summit or or do you think it's it's going to take some time for clarity to emerge.

Well, certainly the war in Ukraine has dominated G twenty discussion since Vladimir Putin invaded in twenty twenty two, so no doubt that that will be a key talking point. The question really is how does Trump change the conversation there? Before it was kind of the G seven aligning up against Russia, primarily on how strong the language should be in condemning Russia for the invasion. Trump has promised to end the war. There's a lot of exhaustion among a lot of the countries, particularly in the Global South, to end the war, and so you might the big question would be whether you see some more conciliatory language, people talking about talks, negotiations, how do we put an end to the war. So that could be the big difference this time around.

Well, certainly the war in Ukraine has dominated G twenty discussion since Vladimir Putin invaded in twenty twenty two, so no doubt that that will be a key talking point. The question really is how does Trump change the conversation there? Before it was kind of the G seven aligning up against Russia, primarily on how strong the language should be in condemning Russia for the invasion. Trump has promised to end the war. There's a lot of exhaustion among a lot of the countries, particularly in the Global South, to end the war, and so you might the big question would be whether you see some more conciliatory language, people talking about talks, negotiations, how do we put an end to the war. So that could be the big difference this time around.

Typically, when we think of economic issues, it's the G twenty summit of finance ministers that kind of tackles those issues. But I was struck by a lot of commentary recently regarding Trump's reelection as this being another example of an anti incumbency push across a number of jurisdictions globally. When you consider that fact that may have been driven largely by dissatisfaction with the way a number of economies have been performing the stubbornness of inflation. Are economic issues beyond trade going to come up at this meeting? Do you think independent of the G twenty Finance minister's meeting.

Typically, when we think of economic issues, it's the G twenty summit of finance ministers that kind of tackles those issues. But I was struck by a lot of commentary recently regarding Trump's reelection as this being another example of an anti incumbency push across a number of jurisdictions globally. When you consider that fact that may have been driven largely by dissatisfaction with the way a number of economies have been performing the stubbornness of inflation. Are economic issues beyond trade going to come up at this meeting? Do you think independent of the G twenty Finance minister's meeting.

Yeah, certainly, I mean the Finance minister's meetings kind of set the table for the leaders meetings, both at APEX and at the G twenty. And if you look back at who's still around from the G seven to a few months ago, you know you'll have Biden representing the US at this meeting, both meetings, the APEC and G twenty, but he's not going to be around much longer. You have a new prime minister in Japan, you have a new prime minister in the UK. A lot of other countries have seen leadership changes. Trudeau is hanging by the ropes in Canada, so a lot of the incumbents have taken a beating this year in the year of elections, and inflation is a big reason for that. It's coming has come down of late, but voters are still struck over the past couple of years by higher prices. They see it every time they go to the grocery store, and so that's certainly going to hang over everything that they discuss this week.

Yeah, certainly, I mean the Finance minister's meetings kind of set the table for the leaders meetings, both at APEX and at the G twenty. And if you look back at who's still around from the G seven to a few months ago, you know you'll have Biden representing the US at this meeting, both meetings, the APEC and G twenty, but he's not going to be around much longer. You have a new prime minister in Japan, you have a new prime minister in the UK. A lot of other countries have seen leadership changes. Trudeau is hanging by the ropes in Canada, so a lot of the incumbents have taken a beating this year in the year of elections, and inflation is a big reason for that. It's coming has come down of late, but voters are still struck over the past couple of years by higher prices. They see it every time they go to the grocery store, and so that's certainly going to hang over everything that they discuss this week.

Dan, thanks so much for helping us set up the G twenty summit in the coming week. He's Dan ten Kate Bloomberg News Asia ECO Gov executive editor, joining us from our studios in Hong Kong. I'm Doug Prisner. Catch us weekdays for the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast.

Dan, thanks so much for helping us set up the G twenty summit in the coming week. He's Dan ten Kate Bloomberg News Asia ECO Gov executive editor, joining us from our studios in Hong Kong. I'm Doug Prisner. Catch us weekdays for the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast.

Tom, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day.

Tom, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day.

I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us.

I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us.

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