Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Blueberg DAYBAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twentieth of September in London. I'm Caroline Hipki and.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Blueberg DAYBAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twentieth of September in London. I'm Caroline Hipki and.

I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. The Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged, as the central bank signals it's in no hurry to hike again.

I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. The Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged, as the central bank signals it's in no hurry to hike again.

Family firms tell Bloomberg a UK inheritance tax hike would destroy them as consumer confidence dives on budget belt tightening.

Family firms tell Bloomberg a UK inheritance tax hike would destroy them as consumer confidence dives on budget belt tightening.

FARS Plus Understanding Kamala Harris, we take a closer look at what the presidential candidate might do if she wins the race to the White House.

FARS Plus Understanding Kamala Harris, we take a closer look at what the presidential candidate might do if she wins the race to the White House.

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

The Bank of Japan has left its key interest rate unchanged, signaling it sees no need to hurry with hikes after its July increase spooked investors. The BOJ indicated that it remains on a path toward hiking rates, with about seventy percent to economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting an increase by December. The board's two day meeting kicked off hours after the Federal Reserve conducted a long awaited policy pivot with a half point rate cut. In doing so, the FED joint developed market peers, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank, in launching an easing cycle. The development underscoring the boj's outlier status as the only major central bank on an upward course.

The Bank of Japan has left its key interest rate unchanged, signaling it sees no need to hurry with hikes after its July increase spooked investors. The BOJ indicated that it remains on a path toward hiking rates, with about seventy percent to economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting an increase by December. The board's two day meeting kicked off hours after the Federal Reserve conducted a long awaited policy pivot with a half point rate cut. In doing so, the FED joint developed market peers, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank, in launching an easing cycle. The development underscoring the boj's outlier status as the only major central bank on an upward course.

Now to the Bank of England, which says that it won't rush to ease monetary policy. After leaving rates on hold yesterday, Governor Andrew Bailey says that he's still concerned about services inflation.

Now to the Bank of England, which says that it won't rush to ease monetary policy. After leaving rates on hold yesterday, Governor Andrew Bailey says that he's still concerned about services inflation.

Our job is to make sure that inflation is sustainable at the two percent target. There are still some pressures. We've seen. Services inflation are still elevated, so I think we're now on a gradual path down. That's the good news. I think in states are going to come down. I'm optimistic on that front, but we do need to see some more evidence, so of course we will be looking at this at every meeting.

Our job is to make sure that inflation is sustainable at the two percent target. There are still some pressures. We've seen. Services inflation are still elevated, so I think we're now on a gradual path down. That's the good news. I think in states are going to come down. I'm optimistic on that front, but we do need to see some more evidence, so of course we will be looking at this at every meeting.

Bailey's comments sent the pound two year high against the US dollar. The Central Bank also maintained its quantitative tightening plans. This would give Chancellor Rachel Reeves up to an extra four billion pounds of fiscal headroom in her upcoming budget.

Bailey's comments sent the pound two year high against the US dollar. The Central Bank also maintained its quantitative tightening plans. This would give Chancellor Rachel Reeves up to an extra four billion pounds of fiscal headroom in her upcoming budget.

Well, that budget is a major test for the Prime Minister and the Chancellor when they presented on the thirtieth of October. British family businesses say they fear for their survival and some of the announcements that could be contained in it. Generations of businesses have told Bloomberg that they won't be able to afford a higher inheritance tax bill if the government chooses to hike it. The business fears about the outlook are matched by UK consumer confidence. The gate plunged in September, following by the largest amount in two and a half years. Before the index was published, the Bank of England governor says based on the economic data, he thought confidence should be going up.

Well, that budget is a major test for the Prime Minister and the Chancellor when they presented on the thirtieth of October. British family businesses say they fear for their survival and some of the announcements that could be contained in it. Generations of businesses have told Bloomberg that they won't be able to afford a higher inheritance tax bill if the government chooses to hike it. The business fears about the outlook are matched by UK consumer confidence. The gate plunged in September, following by the largest amount in two and a half years. Before the index was published, the Bank of England governor says based on the economic data, he thought confidence should be going up.

Real incomes are growing, well, what we've also seen is that there's been quite a short and saving in those country in the last year or so. I think probably people are wanting to really see the evidence and this is where we come and of course have seeing the evidence of inflation is back to target. We've beaten the problems that we saw in these huge global shocks, so I think that there's good news in there. I think probably confidence is rising but I think people want to see the evidence that this has sustained.

Real incomes are growing, well, what we've also seen is that there's been quite a short and saving in those country in the last year or so. I think probably people are wanting to really see the evidence and this is where we come and of course have seeing the evidence of inflation is back to target. We've beaten the problems that we saw in these huge global shocks, so I think that there's good news in there. I think probably confidence is rising but I think people want to see the evidence that this has sustained.

Bailey's comments Commas. Some fear the government is creating a negative narrative around the country's future. Bioi's former chief economist, Andy hal Dane called some of the government's rhetoric unnecessary, unhelpful and a bad idea earlier this month.

Bailey's comments Commas. Some fear the government is creating a negative narrative around the country's future. Bioi's former chief economist, Andy hal Dane called some of the government's rhetoric unnecessary, unhelpful and a bad idea earlier this month.

Now, France's new prime minister is proposing a new government in a bid to overcome the country's political impulse. Michelle Barney met with President Macaw yesterday evening for his office described as constructive talks, during which he floated a list of ministers. French MEP and Macros supporter Stephanie Yhon caught in it, says that the new cabinet will have to make important decisions for the country's future.

Now, France's new prime minister is proposing a new government in a bid to overcome the country's political impulse. Michelle Barney met with President Macaw yesterday evening for his office described as constructive talks, during which he floated a list of ministers. French MEP and Macros supporter Stephanie Yhon caught in it, says that the new cabinet will have to make important decisions for the country's future.

I mean, it's a really hard task, I know for the new prime minister, and I hope everybody will be on board and responsible to make sure that we find at the end of the day the right method to enter into a more reasonable budget for France and for Europe as well.

I mean, it's a really hard task, I know for the new prime minister, and I hope everybody will be on board and responsible to make sure that we find at the end of the day the right method to enter into a more reasonable budget for France and for Europe as well.

Stephanie Joan Kutten, speaking that to Bloomberg Television. According to a statement, the final makeup of The Barnier team will be announced on Sunday, but what's in The French media say that the new team will largely be made up of figures from Macron's Centrist group and Barnier is Conservative Republicans Party.

Stephanie Joan Kutten, speaking that to Bloomberg Television. According to a statement, the final makeup of The Barnier team will be announced on Sunday, but what's in The French media say that the new team will largely be made up of figures from Macron's Centrist group and Barnier is Conservative Republicans Party.

Meanwhile, on the outlook for Germany's economists and you servey by Bloomberg of economists say that they only expect the country's economy to start growing again towards the end of the year. Growth in Germany's but under the spotlight after it fell behind European peers. Bloomberg's Tea Adebayo has the story.

Meanwhile, on the outlook for Germany's economists and you servey by Bloomberg of economists say that they only expect the country's economy to start growing again towards the end of the year. Growth in Germany's but under the spotlight after it fell behind European peers. Bloomberg's Tea Adebayo has the story.

A recession will be narrowly avoided in Germany, where growth will only kick in towards the end of the year. That's according to economists polled by Bloomberg, who now forecast stagnation in the three months through September, compared with the previous prediction of zero point two percent growth. The expectations are broadly in line with the view of Bundesbang, who said this week that German output could stagnate or decline again in the third quarter. Despite the dim prognosis, those surveys still expect Germany's end of year rebound to be sustained into twenty twenty five in London to you at a bio Bloomberg Radio.

A recession will be narrowly avoided in Germany, where growth will only kick in towards the end of the year. That's according to economists polled by Bloomberg, who now forecast stagnation in the three months through September, compared with the previous prediction of zero point two percent growth. The expectations are broadly in line with the view of Bundesbang, who said this week that German output could stagnate or decline again in the third quarter. Despite the dim prognosis, those surveys still expect Germany's end of year rebound to be sustained into twenty twenty five in London to you at a bio Bloomberg Radio.

Bloomberg understands that China's government is considering removing some of the largest remaining restrictions on home purchases. Regulators are working on a proposal that would allow large cities such as Shanghai and Beijing to relax restrictions for non local buyers and tweak rules to allow for five smaller down payments and lower mortgage rates on second homes. Chinese policymakers face renewed pressure to reverse a housing slump that has dragged into its fourth year, as evidence suggests that the country is struggling to meet its five percent growth target.

Bloomberg understands that China's government is considering removing some of the largest remaining restrictions on home purchases. Regulators are working on a proposal that would allow large cities such as Shanghai and Beijing to relax restrictions for non local buyers and tweak rules to allow for five smaller down payments and lower mortgage rates on second homes. Chinese policymakers face renewed pressure to reverse a housing slump that has dragged into its fourth year, as evidence suggests that the country is struggling to meet its five percent growth target.

In a moment, we'll bring you more details in the Bank of Japan decision, plus our Big Take report today on what sort of president Kamala Harris would make if she were to be elected in November. But first, another story that caught her eye this morning, or I should say caught my eye, because Carline famously does not drink coffee. As a result, not very interested in a story about coffee. However, I will wow you figures in the National Coffee Association in the US, so that coffee drinking outside of homes has returned to pre pandemic levels the first time. It's back up at that level we saw in January twenty twenty. So that means more than a third of coffee drinkers who drink regularly did so outside of their homes. This is something that is in focus even as the price of a couple of coffee is going to get more expensive at future for Arabica beans head a thirteen year high this week. And that's actually mean that's the subject to the latest Next Africa podcast looking at the effects as having on farmers and Uganda in particular, And you can download that now if you want to hear the conversation. Mumbai Get our Self Commodities reporter joins Jennifer's Abasaga to discuss how that story is playing out amongst coffee growers.

In a moment, we'll bring you more details in the Bank of Japan decision, plus our Big Take report today on what sort of president Kamala Harris would make if she were to be elected in November. But first, another story that caught her eye this morning, or I should say caught my eye, because Carline famously does not drink coffee. As a result, not very interested in a story about coffee. However, I will wow you figures in the National Coffee Association in the US, so that coffee drinking outside of homes has returned to pre pandemic levels the first time. It's back up at that level we saw in January twenty twenty. So that means more than a third of coffee drinkers who drink regularly did so outside of their homes. This is something that is in focus even as the price of a couple of coffee is going to get more expensive at future for Arabica beans head a thirteen year high this week. And that's actually mean that's the subject to the latest Next Africa podcast looking at the effects as having on farmers and Uganda in particular, And you can download that now if you want to hear the conversation. Mumbai Get our Self Commodities reporter joins Jennifer's Abasaga to discuss how that story is playing out amongst coffee growers.

Okay, the one thing I do want to ask you, I'm going to give you the politicians question. How much is a cup of coffee in the UK?

Okay, the one thing I do want to ask you, I'm going to give you the politicians question. How much is a cup of coffee in the UK?

Now?

Now?

As I don't drink one, do you.

As I don't drink one, do you.

Know, I'm turns of where you go? Really, I mean somewhere between three and five pounds potentially, Thank you, I mean there are cheap rol charges available, but.

Know, I'm turns of where you go? Really, I mean somewhere between three and five pounds potentially, Thank you, I mean there are cheap rol charges available, but.

Yeah, good stuff and nice piece on the coffee industry. Then on the Bloomberg terminal. Right, let's focus on the Bank of Japan, which has held interest rates steady today and signaled that it sees no need to hurry with interest rate hikes. That's after a week of central bank decisions that has seen the Bank of England hold and the FED cut by fifty basis points. Garfield Reynolds, who leads our Markets Live team in Asia, joins us now for more Garfield good Moore, no change them from the Bank of Japan. What will you be listening out for in the press conference?

Yeah, good stuff and nice piece on the coffee industry. Then on the Bloomberg terminal. Right, let's focus on the Bank of Japan, which has held interest rates steady today and signaled that it sees no need to hurry with interest rate hikes. That's after a week of central bank decisions that has seen the Bank of England hold and the FED cut by fifty basis points. Garfield Reynolds, who leads our Markets Live team in Asia, joins us now for more Garfield good Moore, no change them from the Bank of Japan. What will you be listening out for in the press conference?

Well, the press conference is very interestingly set up. We've seen the yen gain somewhat after the announcement, even though the announcement was very much as expected, no change, But there were hints that there could be some more hawkishness, or at least some justification for hawkishness, because the boj sounded more optimistic about the economy. It raised its assessment for consumer spending, it sees inflation expectations moving higher in the medium term. All of that is the sort of thing that would set them up to consider rate hikes going forward. However, the other side of matters is that there was no outlining of forward guidance in the statement, unlike last time round, and what there was was some comments about the need to monitor what the impact of financial market is going to be on the economy and acknowledgment of the increased impact on prices of what goes on with currencies. So all of that sounds as though Ueida and his board got the message from last time around that if they are too hawkish too fast, they could set off some very strong gains for the end and they don't want to see that. Now. That's not so much because they worry about the repeat of your equity selloffs even in Japan. It's more because they look at that and go, well, that's going to stop us being able to get policy normalized in appropriate fashion. It's a policy your block. It stops them doing that going forward. So with that being the case, it's quite possible that those traders who've bid up the yen after the statement are jumping at the shadows of the last meeting because it's looking like Uwaida is not about to repeat the disruptive hawkishness that he displayed last time round.

Well, the press conference is very interestingly set up. We've seen the yen gain somewhat after the announcement, even though the announcement was very much as expected, no change, But there were hints that there could be some more hawkishness, or at least some justification for hawkishness, because the boj sounded more optimistic about the economy. It raised its assessment for consumer spending, it sees inflation expectations moving higher in the medium term. All of that is the sort of thing that would set them up to consider rate hikes going forward. However, the other side of matters is that there was no outlining of forward guidance in the statement, unlike last time round, and what there was was some comments about the need to monitor what the impact of financial market is going to be on the economy and acknowledgment of the increased impact on prices of what goes on with currencies. So all of that sounds as though Ueida and his board got the message from last time around that if they are too hawkish too fast, they could set off some very strong gains for the end and they don't want to see that. Now. That's not so much because they worry about the repeat of your equity selloffs even in Japan. It's more because they look at that and go, well, that's going to stop us being able to get policy normalized in appropriate fashion. It's a policy your block. It stops them doing that going forward. So with that being the case, it's quite possible that those traders who've bid up the yen after the statement are jumping at the shadows of the last meeting because it's looking like Uwaida is not about to repeat the disruptive hawkishness that he displayed last time round.

Okay, so that's interesting to watch in the Bank of Japan meeting, of course, this is that they're among the last of that rush of central bank decisions we've had this week. And reflecting on the move that we had from the FED, which as I suppose, the most surprising among them, where are we now on considering where the fad goes from here?

Okay, so that's interesting to watch in the Bank of Japan meeting, of course, this is that they're among the last of that rush of central bank decisions we've had this week. And reflecting on the move that we had from the FED, which as I suppose, the most surprising among them, where are we now on considering where the fad goes from here?

Well, I mean, the shakeout has ultimately been what it seemed like was was what was most the most likely outcome, which was that at least initially, it's good for stocks and bad for bonds. Good for stocks because the FED is looking past there are still some lingering concerns about inflation. It's not totally clear the labor market is in deep trouble, but the FED is focusing far more on making sure that the labor market stays healthy, far more now on trying to support growth. It's assuming that inflation is not a major concern going forward, so it's very strongly focused on that growth angle, and in particular on creating a soft landing. Now. If it does manage to get to a soft landing, that's bad for bonds because bonds have been pricing as though a recession was almost certain to come without a recession if we get that soft landing. That's basically what a soft landing means is no serious recession. So if we don't get a serious recession, then yields at the front end of the curve look a little bit lower than they really should be, and those at the back end of the curve look considerably lower than they should be. So the bond market faces a much tougher time going forward market unless the fit, it turns out, has been too late and is going to end up being too slow in lowering rates, in which case we get a recession, and then those bets on much much lower interest rates will count to fruition absolutely.

Well, I mean, the shakeout has ultimately been what it seemed like was was what was most the most likely outcome, which was that at least initially, it's good for stocks and bad for bonds. Good for stocks because the FED is looking past there are still some lingering concerns about inflation. It's not totally clear the labor market is in deep trouble, but the FED is focusing far more on making sure that the labor market stays healthy, far more now on trying to support growth. It's assuming that inflation is not a major concern going forward, so it's very strongly focused on that growth angle, and in particular on creating a soft landing. Now. If it does manage to get to a soft landing, that's bad for bonds because bonds have been pricing as though a recession was almost certain to come without a recession if we get that soft landing. That's basically what a soft landing means is no serious recession. So if we don't get a serious recession, then yields at the front end of the curve look a little bit lower than they really should be, and those at the back end of the curve look considerably lower than they should be. So the bond market faces a much tougher time going forward market unless the fit, it turns out, has been too late and is going to end up being too slow in lowering rates, in which case we get a recession, and then those bets on much much lower interest rates will count to fruition absolutely.

I mean, for now, the Asians dot rally continues, continues. In fact, the global act she's vale that we've seen this week. Garfield, thank you so much for being with us this morning. GOFFERD Reynold, who leads our market's live team in Asia.

I mean, for now, the Asians dot rally continues, continues. In fact, the global act she's vale that we've seen this week. Garfield, thank you so much for being with us this morning. GOFFERD Reynold, who leads our market's live team in Asia.

Now, what would Kamala Harris winning the US presidential election November? I mean, for Wall Street and for Americans. That's the subject of today's Bloomberg Big Take report, which looks at what the vice president might do in office if she defeats Donald Trump. Our AMNIS director Rosla Matts and joins us now for more this morning, Raz Good morning. This is a deep dive into Harris's background in history to sketch out what sort of president she might be. What stands out first of all from her earlier professional years it could be key to her policy choices.

Now, what would Kamala Harris winning the US presidential election November? I mean, for Wall Street and for Americans. That's the subject of today's Bloomberg Big Take report, which looks at what the vice president might do in office if she defeats Donald Trump. Our AMNIS director Rosla Matts and joins us now for more this morning, Raz Good morning. This is a deep dive into Harris's background in history to sketch out what sort of president she might be. What stands out first of all from her earlier professional years it could be key to her policy choices.

Well, in a way, what stood out to me goes back even further than that to when she was a young girl with her mother. There's a very strong vein of her mother through her life, her formative years, teaching her about social justice, but also to use logic very much. Her mother was about logic, data and information and so how to use that to form an argument, a reasoned case. And in the end, of course, Kamala Harris became a lawyer where that was also important to her, and you can see that in her time as when she was district attorney, because she was both tough on the one hand, very much trying to increase conviction rates for major crimes coming down on for colleges that were profiteering of students, coming for the housing sector, for companies that were profiteering off people, but also pragmatic in that she was trying to boost rehabilitations for nonviolent offenders. So you can see that kind of streak of tough but pragmatic and always using logic to build an argument, not just relying on emotion. And that's very much been a vain through her childhood and through her professional career as a prosecutor, and you can see it in the way that she's running her campaign now for president.

Well, in a way, what stood out to me goes back even further than that to when she was a young girl with her mother. There's a very strong vein of her mother through her life, her formative years, teaching her about social justice, but also to use logic very much. Her mother was about logic, data and information and so how to use that to form an argument, a reasoned case. And in the end, of course, Kamala Harris became a lawyer where that was also important to her, and you can see that in her time as when she was district attorney, because she was both tough on the one hand, very much trying to increase conviction rates for major crimes coming down on for colleges that were profiteering of students, coming for the housing sector, for companies that were profiteering off people, but also pragmatic in that she was trying to boost rehabilitations for nonviolent offenders. So you can see that kind of streak of tough but pragmatic and always using logic to build an argument, not just relying on emotion. And that's very much been a vain through her childhood and through her professional career as a prosecutor, and you can see it in the way that she's running her campaign now for president.

That's an interesting point. Her mother was a biomedical scientist. In terms of the contrast though, as you say, I mean you've sort of mentioned some of them there, but in terms of the economic thinking, tax breaks for small business, but then potentially tougher on competition issues. How should we think about Harris's potential stewardship of the US economy.

That's an interesting point. Her mother was a biomedical scientist. In terms of the contrast though, as you say, I mean you've sort of mentioned some of them there, but in terms of the economic thinking, tax breaks for small business, but then potentially tougher on competition issues. How should we think about Harris's potential stewardship of the US economy.

What's interesting because everyone's trying to work out how she'd be different or the same as Joe Biden. But as you say, she's a study in contrast when it comes to economic policy, and she's been deliberately a little bit obtuse about some of it, and that's probably while she's out on the campaign trail, but we know that you know she probably will be more pro regulation of big companies. She could come on the anti trust side and that could find her on the back food even with some of her own Democrats, and certainly big business is looking at her thinking is she going to be very tough on us in terms of regulation and the anti trust aspect. But equally, she's really cast her campaign in economic policies a little bit different from Joe Biden, more around small business and helping first homeowners, small businesses, people get on the ladder economically, and that's really about her bid to appeal to the middle class in America as part of this election, and she sees that again, I think about that issue of fairness. You want to help everybody have a chance to succeed in society, but also you want to watch the top end of town.

What's interesting because everyone's trying to work out how she'd be different or the same as Joe Biden. But as you say, she's a study in contrast when it comes to economic policy, and she's been deliberately a little bit obtuse about some of it, and that's probably while she's out on the campaign trail, but we know that you know she probably will be more pro regulation of big companies. She could come on the anti trust side and that could find her on the back food even with some of her own Democrats, and certainly big business is looking at her thinking is she going to be very tough on us in terms of regulation and the anti trust aspect. But equally, she's really cast her campaign in economic policies a little bit different from Joe Biden, more around small business and helping first homeowners, small businesses, people get on the ladder economically, and that's really about her bid to appeal to the middle class in America as part of this election, and she sees that again, I think about that issue of fairness. You want to help everybody have a chance to succeed in society, but also you want to watch the top end of town.

Now, part of what's so intriguing about this piece of reporting is that we've heard relatively little from Kamala Harris since she became the nominee. She's done quite few interviews. Is that a strategy? You know, what do we sort of think about that strategy? And I know, is that's something that might change as we get closer to the election.

Now, part of what's so intriguing about this piece of reporting is that we've heard relatively little from Kamala Harris since she became the nominee. She's done quite few interviews. Is that a strategy? You know, what do we sort of think about that strategy? And I know, is that's something that might change as we get closer to the election.

Well, it has allowed her to be a bit of a chameleon on the campaign. I mean, she's been out campaigning pretty much every day, but she's mostly been going and talking to people versus talking to the media. She does a lot of stops where she goes and talks to people on the road, giving very few interviews because you know, if you tie yourself into an interview, you tie yourself into a policy position, and that can be dangerous. On the campaign trail, she does seem to want to give herself a lot of room if she were to become president, to craft policy and not be bound into promises she's made in a rush on the campaign trail, So it seems to be a deliberate strategy, as our story notes, in a way's campaigning like she's the front runner.

Well, it has allowed her to be a bit of a chameleon on the campaign. I mean, she's been out campaigning pretty much every day, but she's mostly been going and talking to people versus talking to the media. She does a lot of stops where she goes and talks to people on the road, giving very few interviews because you know, if you tie yourself into an interview, you tie yourself into a policy position, and that can be dangerous. On the campaign trail, she does seem to want to give herself a lot of room if she were to become president, to craft policy and not be bound into promises she's made in a rush on the campaign trail, So it seems to be a deliberate strategy, as our story notes, in a way's campaigning like she's the front runner.

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