SVB's Senate Hearing and Alibaba's Split

Published Mar 28, 2023, 10:49 PM

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Wednesday, March twenty ninth in Hong Kong, Tuesday March twenty eighth in New York and coming up today, top US financial officials outlined what is likely to be the biggest regulatory overhaul of the banking sector in years. Micron Technology gives a better sales forecast than analysts had feared, and Ali Baba announces plans to split its empire into six business units. A US warship docs in South Korea for the first time in sixty years. North Korean hackers posing as journalists gather international intelligence. Biden says chip production must be done on the US. I'm at Baxter with Global News. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, the business news you need to start your day in just one fifteen minute podcast available on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, I'm Doug Prisoner and I'm Brian Curtis. Here are the stories we're following today. Top US financial officials outline what's likely to be the biggest regulatory overhaul of the banking sector in years. That Vice share for Supervision. Michael Barr, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, and Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nelly Leung all testified before a Senate panel. They brought forth an initiative aimed at addressing underlying issues that contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other US lenders. Michael Barr outlined future steps we need to move forward with our work to improve the resilience of the banking system, including the Basel three endgame reforms, a long term debt requirement for large banks, and enhancements to stress testing with multiple scenarios. We must also explore changes to our liquidity rules and other reforms to improve the resilience of the financial system. So a lot being considered here. Martin Gruenberg called for serious attention to the capital requirements for the secure these portfolios of banks with assets at higher than one hundred billion dollars. He also said the FDIC would lay out options for potential changes to deposit insurance coverage. At the moment it's capped at two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Well. The founder of the crypto exchange FTX Sam Bankman Freed, is facing more criminal charges. He is now accused of conspiring to bribe Chinese government officials. That story from Bloomberg's Denis Pellegrini. Prosecutors alleged bankman Freed authorize bribing at least one Chinese official with at least forty million dollars worth of cryptocurrency in twenty twenty one, and the prosecutors say this was all part of an attempt by bankman Freed to get the officials to unfreeze accounts at Almeter Research, a Hong Kong based trading firm affiliated with FTX. Those accounts, they say held more than a billion dollars in cryptocurrency. With this new charge of conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices bankmen Freed now faces thirteen criminal accounts. He's already pleaded not guilty to fraud related to bankrupt FTX and Alameda. He's out unbailed. Trial scheduled for October. Denise Peligudy Bloomberg day Breakasia, China's online commerce leader Ali Baba announced plans to split its Empire into six business units. The move free ump the company's main divisions from e commerce and media to the cloud to operate with far more autonomy. It also lays the foundation for future spinoffs and market debuts. We heard earlier from Bloomberg Stephen Engel, ali Baba has gone from an eight hundred billion valuated company down to about two hundred and twenty billion, So now they're going to kind of be reshuffled. Is this at government order? We don't know. Is it going to unlock more value than the pre breakup, if you will, or pre at breakup? We don't know yet, a lot of questions to be answered. Ali Baba's shift to a holding company structure is rare for major Chinese tech firms, and it could present a template for Ali Baba's peers through China. Decentralizing Ali Baba's business lines and decision making power also addresses one of Beijing's primary goals during it's sweeping crackdown on the tech sector that was launched a couple of years back. Ali baba eightrs closed fourteen point three percent higher. But Steve's point, if you look at the shares, they're trading around eighty four dollars and twenty five cents in Hong Kong. They topped out over three hundreds, So that's why a company that used to have an eight hundred billion dollar valuation is now down in the two hundred's done well after the bell Here in the US, we heard from Micron Technology. The company gave a forecast for the current quarter better than some analysts had feared. That story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett, Micron is the largest American maker of memory chips, and the quarter is sparking hope, but the worst of a brutal industry slump maybe over. Micron said sales will be as much as three point nine billion dollars in the fiscal third quarter. That compares with an average of analysts estimates of three point seven five billion. CEO Sonja Morotra said customer inventories are getting better, and we expect gradual improvements to the industry's supply demand balance. The forecast suggests the memory chip market may be poised for a comeback after a rough stretch. In New York, Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak, Asia, AMC shares rose more than thirteen percent after the Intersect website reported that Amazon is weighing a possible acquisition of the movie theater chain. AMC has struggled financially as consumers have returned slowly to cinemas after the pandemic. Bloomberg's Tom Giles says acquiring AMC would be a win for Amazon. Amazon wants to make a splash in Hollywood. They are spending more and more money on big production shows and movies, and if you wanted a traditional outlet for distribution of those movies as people tentatively come back to theater, this is one way they could do it. The Intersect website said that AMC theaters could serve as a platform for the twelve to fifteen movies that Amazon plans to release in cinemas every year. I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. Paul Allen will join us in a few moments. So a big move here by Ali Baba Doug. It gets a little bit more interesting though, when we think about other big Chinese tech companies. Ten Cent was up eight percent, JD up four percent. On the one hand, they might benefit as well in unlocking value. But on the other you know, this move could provide a lots stiffer competition for these companies. Some of the other companies by these specialized Boba Units Bloomberg Intelligence said, for instance that may twine and C might struggle a little bit. I would say this, no matter what, Hong Kong looks to benefit from a lot of lucrative IPOs coming, and I'd expect Hong Kong Exchanges in clearing to probably do well in today's session. I would say that's a safe at the other thing to think about when it comes to competition, maybe this is what Beijing would like to see because in that environment of tougher competition, that's where the innovation comes. And I think the government has already acknowledged the fact that innovation is needed in order to drive the next level or level of recovery in the Chinese economy. So maybe maybe that's part of the design here. Brian. Yeah. And the other big story that we obviously rolled out, and I'll just pose a question to you and you can have fun trying to answer it. Does the market want to see more regulation of the banks or more punishment of those who get themselves in trouble? Well, I think the market probably was well prepared for the idea that we're going to see tougher regulation, particularly for some of these MidCap banks that have been flying underneath that two hundred and fifty billion dollars level that was set when Dodd Frank was revisited a couple of years back. So the conversation now not only from Michael Barr, who is the Vice Chair of Supervision at the FED, but Mark Gruenberg, who is the Chair of the FDIC, talking about banks with assets over one hundred billion needing serious attention. So I think now that the market is kind of embracing this idea and really, if at the end of the day it means greater stability for the financial system, than I think a number of people are going to be on board with that. I think a lot of people would also like to see more of a separate look at regulation and supervision. Regulation is one thing, and they may have to write some new laws, but the supervision is something that should be like on an ongoing basis and maybe should have gotten out in front of what the management at Silicon Valley Bank was doing. It's something that we can try to unlock further with our guest. We have Christina Hooper coming up, chief Global market Strategist at Invesco, and we'll be taking a closer look at the markets now it's time for global news. Well, for the first time in sixty years, a US Navy warship has dopped at a South Korean port at Baxter has Global News in the nine sixty. Newsman San Francisco ed, yeah right, Brian, the US has an over seventy year relationship history, but yes, it has been sixty years. Carrier USS limits is in boosts on harbor as the two nations carry on military drills and international waters. Captain Craig Cicola says, an important mission if pour call reflects the mutual interest and the share goals between our countries, just to maintain peace, your dialogue and diplomacy. This is North Korea has been banging the drum on growing nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, suspected North Korean hackers are posing as journalists and trying to gather intelligence about international officials posing as journalists. From the Voice of America, US President Joe Biden is kicking off his Investing in America tour, making remarks at a factory in North Carolina that he says is lined up to make semiconductors. He says, Republicans are content with the work being done elsewhere. You want to see our clean energy future to China to make his dependent and overseas supplies and supply chains, export jobs overseas, weaken our energy security. And meanwhile, Biden also talked about getting an assault weapons ban passed in Congress. Last year, we came together to pass the most significant gun safety legislation in thirty years. It was bipartisan. We got it done, and don't tell me we can't do more together. So I again call on Congress to pass the Sloman's Man about Republican Senator John Tone says this is not the right time with Nashville happening yesterday with respect to any discussion of legislation. It's premature. There's an ongoing investigation, and I think we need to let the facts come out fact well. Nashville police chief says an investigation shows that the perpetrator owned seven illegally purchased weapons, including semi automatic. Three of those weapons were used yesterday doing the horrific tragedy that happened, and says she was under mental healthcare programs. The wide ranging hearings on the banking crisis who've been talking about today brought to the four again long time bank regulation critic Senator Elizabeth Warren showed what she said was an example of lacks regulations. Xaminers were asking too many questions that they should quote let us know, end quote. Now there's a banking regulator who makes it clear that she is there to serve the big banks instead of the American public. Now, Warren wants to make sure that regulations are changed for any bank holding more than one hundred billion dollars in assets. Ukraine has a new voice for its attack warning systems. Now, I want to let you know. This is a demonstration. Okay, a demonstration. Now the voice is that of Luke Skywalker, Mark Hamill. Attention, air raid alert. Proceed to the nearest shelter. Don't be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness. And then the all clear. Attention, the air alert is over. May the force be with you. Indeed, Global News powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and over one hundred and twenty countries. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter and this is Bloomberg. Let's get to our guest. Christina Hooper joins US chief Global market Strategist at Invesco. Christina, the market must be doing something right here in that it would appear that both the bulls and the bears are kind of equally frustrated. They're not getting their way. They're not but perhaps that's a good thing, certainly better than some of the alternatives. Right. The reality is there is a fair amount of confusion about where the economy is going from here, are we passed this mini banking crisis? And what will the FED do going forward? So I think it's fair to expect this kind of market environment. That's a question that we actually should be putting to you, not you, Why do you answer it? While you're at it? It was rhetorical, but yes, So my expectation is that we're likely to see the FED hike rates one more time now. I think there's probably a slightly more than fifty percent chance of that, and of course they are data dependent, so that could change. But then I would expect the Fed to hold it does not want to cut rates, and unless we see a very significant deterioration in the US economy, I don't think they will cut rates, at least not in the next several months. Now. Of course, what happens with markets, I think markets will get more comfortable the more distance we have from the last banking issue that popped up on. The more distance we have from that, and once we get to a FED pause, I think markets are going to start to look out and start to anticipate in economic recovery next year and could move into more of a risk on stance. That's certainly not the case today, but that could change now. I do think the economy experiences a downturn, possibly a mild recession in the back half of this year, but I don't think it's a deep recession. I don't think it's a broad based recession, and I think we see an economic recovery in twenty twenty four, just as markets are likely to discount. And where do you stand on the inflation question? Do you feel that the fight is getting towards the end, the things are coming under control, especially when you consider the lagging impact of the right hinks we've seen so far. I think it's all about the lagging impact. I think the FED is going to be satisfied enough with progress. This is not going to be perfect. It's not going to be an immaculate disinflation, but I do think we're going to see significant progress this year, and it's going to be enough to satisfy the Fed, hence the change in position and the move to a pause. And speaking of rhetorical questions, one that I pose to Doug earlier, perhaps you heard it. Do you think the market wants to see more regulation of the banks here or would they rather see more punishment of those who get themselves in trouble. I don't think the market wants much more regulation, but I think it's willing to tolerate smart regulation, and so that's hopefully what we'll ultimately get. You know, sometimes with regulation you can get overkill that's not very smart. So I'm hoping for smart regulation that is both forward looking and of course reacting to what's happened. Yeah, in terms of regulation, there's quite a lot. If we take a look at the dog Frankek for example, that's two thousand, three hundred pages long. There are four hundred rules and mandates. Is a question of there being enough regulation or perhaps maybe too much, and is it not being enforced correctly? Well? I think that if you were to write a post mortem on Dodd Frank, you'd largely say that it was a success in terms of really addressing kind of the key issues that impacted and caused the global financial crisis. Now, one could argue and make a very good argument that it was overkilled, that there was a lot more to it than was necessary. But I think a lot of the key elements have helped improve the environment and prevented the kind of crisis we saw in two thousand and seven through two thousand and nine. So Bloomberg listeners are smart people. One in particular has a million dollars safely tucked into four different accounts at banks. But once to know what the Christina Hooper Blue Ribbon call is to do with that money? Now, well, it all depends on your time horizon, but I'm assuming that they have a long time horizon, and so I would say it is time to really think about one's exposure to a broad array of asset classes. So certainly it's nice to have keep one of those buckets in cash for now, but start deploying the others into equities. I'm excited about equities outside the US, particularly Asia em in this environment. I think that China reopening is going well, and I think it's going to exceed many people's expectations for this year, and that will be a positive that will have a halo effect for Asia EM in general within fixed income investment grade credit. In terms of the emerging markets position, we still have a persistently strong US dollar that would rather way on EM. Do you see that changing? I do think that's going to change, certainly. The US dollar strength is typically a function of three things, right, interest rate differentials, growth differentials, and of course the perceived need for a safe haven asset class like the US dollar. So we've gone through some difficult times recently, but I would anticipate that as we move through the year that is likely to change and we won't see the dollar astrong okay in forty five seconds. This big move by Ali Babat. Does that set a template for even American big tech companies. Well, I certainly think there are technology companies out there thinking about how to unleash opportunities, unleash interests and excitement. I don't know if we're going to see many follow that same path, but I'm sure it's a consideration right now as it should be. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on. This story is making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street. Look for US on your podcast feed every day on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcast. You can also listen live each day on Bloomberg eleven three zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Doug Prisoner. Join us again tomorrow for all the news unique to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia

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