Featuring:
Shana Sissel, Founder and President at Banríon Capital Management
Julia Love, Bloomberg Tech Reporter in San Francisco, on Alphabet
Danny Lee, Bloomberg Asia Transport Reporter in Hong Kong, on Tesla
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This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories making news and moving markets in the Apec region. You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Shana Sissel, Founder and President Bandery and Capital Management, Shana. Perhaps as it should be with earnings, the results here tend to reflect the idiosyncratic results of the particular companies involved. We're not getting them all moving together. So I guess this makes it a good time to be a stock picker or would you rather see a kind of more consistent theme.
No, if you're a stock picker, you want to see stocks reflect earnings, and so when stocks behave as they should after earnings is reported and it's based just on that company, that is a good thing.
That's what you want to see.
If you don't want to see stocks moving completely not in sync with their fundamentals.
We heard from Texas Instruments today and maybe the guidance that we got for the current quarter being in line with estimates was enough to alleviate concern about a downturn in the chip industry. If memory serves. The last time we spoke with you, you were talking about in Nvidia. Are you still holding on to a position in Nvidia?
Oh? Yes.
So I think it's really important to understand the difference between holding a stock for the long term and then trading a stock. So I am a long term investor, so I look to purchase a stock for the long term. I think at the moment, Nvidia is a little pricey. It's trading out a premium to its historic average and to the market. It does always trade a premium, but it's trading out a bigger premium than normal, and for that reason, I wouldn't be adding to the stock right now. But I am certainly going to continue to hold the shares that I currently have, and if there was weakness in the stock, I might look at that as an opportunity to buy. But as a long term investor, I continue to have a strong bowcase.
For the stock.
Now you're predicting a mild recession for next year, so that's kind of interesting because a lot of people think we're heading for a so called soft landing. What are some of the driving factors that will get us to that mild recession.
Well, I think it's important to note that a soft landing is something that almost never happens. If it does, it's not because the FED did something incredibly right that just got lucky. It just historically, monetary policy tends to overdo whatever it's trying to correct and tends to push the economy either into an overheated state or into now right now, the FED has managed to play this correctly, but we are seeing softening in the economy. And what I think is going to happen is that the FED will cut rates in September, but they're going to do it slowly.
This is not going to be a big rate cut.
With the economic growth and some of the other economic indicators showing softness in the economy, I do think that by taking it slow like that, it is likely that we will see continued softness, which could result in a mild recession. And it's important to note recessions are healthy things. We like them. It's a normal part of the business cycle, the economic cycle. What we prefer is these mild recessions that get access out of the system we get through fairly quickly with minimal damage. But when we don't have them for a long time, what tends to happen is we end up with a really big one all of a sudden because we've overdone it marketwide.
So do you regard some of the recent rotation that we have seen into stocks that may be a little bit more economically sensitive, do you regard that as a little misguided right now? Giving your outlook?
Not necessarily.
I think what you're seeing is this understanding or belief that the Fed is going to cut rates in September will be positive for companies, however small that may be. I think in the short term it will be, But I don't think necessarily that it's enough to save us from seeing a downturn in the overall economy. But what you're seeing is them reacting to positive potential monetary policy that.
Is related to their businesses.
Shane and we heard some musing on this network earlier that people tend to hate inflation more than they like full employment, and hence the average person apparently in the United States is unhappy. Now, why is that and how do you see things moving?
Because I think that.
Generally speaking, when everybody has a job, they'd like to think that they can live and afford and support their live livelihood, and inflation chips away at that. It makes them feel like they don't have enough, so they feel under employed. It's interesting though, because I think to your point is, even when unemployment rises, the number of people that that actually impacts as a percentage of employed people is actually small, So the overall sentiment isn't necessarily impacted unless everybody is really scared that they might lose their job.
So I think that's what you're seeing.
Yeah, I was just going to mention the PCEE data that we get at the end of the week, along with the personal income personal spending figures, the economy from a lot of the data points that we've been looking at seems to be downshifting into a lower speed. Does that cause you maybe to consider what's happening in other parts of the world, maybe Asia, maybe Europe. Are you looking at opportunities offshore?
So I don't generally play in the space where I'm looking at things from a country level, but I do think that the nations out have been a little quicker to make monetary policy changes that are actually going to be less negative for their economies per se.
So there are some opportunities I.
Think you can look at fundamentally, especially in Asia, that could make a lot of sense right now. But generally speaking, I'm not going to pretend that I spend a lot of time focusing on a country level because I don't and I don't know that I can necessarily give you anything that's going to be like a GM of information for your listeners.
Yeah, let's talk briefly about the strong dollar. It's hurting corporate profits to a certain degree, particularly for North American firms. How do you see the dollar moving? If the Fed, you know, moves very slowly.
I think we'll continue to have this issue with the strong dollar. You know, Obviously, just intuitively, when you take economics class, inflation should in some way affect the strength of the dollar.
But it's much more complicated than that.
So even if inflation slows, it doesn't necessarily mean the dollar weekends because of just the nature of the relationships with other currencies and other things. I think a slower rate cut cycle would be not necessarily something that is going to weaken the dollar compared to the other currencies that are out there.
Okay, Shana, thanks very much for taking out the time to be with a. Shanea SISIL founder and president Banary and Capital Management.
After the bell, we heard from Google parent Alphabet, with the company reporting quarterly revenue ahead of expectations. Closer look at this story. Now we'll bring in our own Julia Love Bloomberg, a tech reporter who joins us from San Francisco. Thanks for making time for us, aid Julia. So there are two categories here when we look at the top line. There is the cloud computing service and then there's the ad that is tied to the Google search engine. Is one beginning to dominate here or is it pretty much an even split?
So Goodle Search still accounts for the lion's share of Goodle's revenue, and I believe that will be the taste for the foreseeable future. But the cloud business is growing and executives and Wall Street are very heartened by that. They have long wanted to see Goodle diversify its revenue streams, and cloud is a strong contender.
I'm curious what the company said about the push into AI. So the initially had a headstart that it seemed like, oh WHOA is me? You know, for a while, but they've they've been making a comeback here. Did they say much about the progress being made on competing with Microsoft and Open Ai?
Yes, so they delivered a bit of a progress report of sorts. Google Search now includes AI overviews, which are responses drafted by generative AI and assum Darpachai said that those overviews are generating increased engagement and that users are very satisfied with the responses. He also said that they have made progress in delivering those responses faster and in controlling the computing costs that it takes to serve up those responses. And in addition, executives said that Google is using AI to drive more sales for its cloud business, although Wall Street is hungry for more specific that.
I thought it was interesting that Ruth pour Out, the CIO, was saying that alphabet is looking for acquisition targets at a time when wiz rejected the twenty three billion dollar or offer that Google had made. Do we have guidance on what this company is looking to build out? Is it cyber security? Is that the big area of growth that they that they think it's worth kind of pursuing.
Yes, cyber certainly seems like a strong candidate. They acquired Mandian a few years ago, which was one of their biggest acquisitions to date, and they seem to be interested in buying up more companies in that space. You know, in the cloud market, they are number three, so that's seen as a space where perhaps they could do an acquisition without triggering anti trust scrutiny, although certainly there are still anti trust concerns that they'd have to face there as well.
Google suffers from the same sort of malady that the broader market suffers from. When you're at all time highs, you know, there's a lot of pressure on the earnings to to get you to go even higher, they have to be almost fallless. And we didn't see a flawless report because we had YouTube missing estimates there. Well, what's the latest with YouTube in terms of its progress.
Yes, it's been you know, I think a bumby a few years for YouTube. They've had a strain of disappointing quarters and I think, you know, YouTube is ultimately a social media company, and it's and like Facebook and and X and tit talk, it's much more vulnerable to these swings in advertiser spending. And I think that that's what we saw with this report.
Obviously, we're in an election season. I think the Federal Trade Commission, led by Lena Kahan, has been thorn in the side of Alphabet to some extent. Did they talk about regulatory risk at all on the call with analyst?
Not on this call, But that is certainly a question that has been just looming over Google and is kind of instapable. We are waiting for a verdict in an antitrust trial about their search business, and another trial will get underway in just a few months about their dominance in the digital ad market. So lots of anti trust headaches.
And I'm kind of curious about Ruth Porat and what comes next. Doug mentioned her she's going to be president and chief investment Officer and no longer the CFO. That'll go to an Ashkenazi coming in from Eli Lilly. What is the push there, what's the main thrust of that hire?
Yes, well, Ruth Porat was Alphabet's longest serving chief financcial office. Her Wall Street is a huge fan of hers. She's had a lot of success in instituting more financial discipline at the company, and it seems like she was ready for a new challenge. She'll be turning more attention to the portfolio of other bets way Mow. This help driving car company, you know, seems poised for for fortor splash, and she'll be spending time there. As for the new CFO and not asht Nazi. I think that her hiring signals that Alphabet is perhaps going to make a bitter push in in health Verily their life sciences company has is maturing, and we may see her spend We may see her not spending more time with that part of the business than than Ruth has.
Best far, Julia, good stuff. Thank you so much for making time to chat with us. Julia love their. Bloomberg Tech reporter.
Danny Lee Bloomberg Asia Transport reporter Danny let me just sort of set the tone here for listeners that are just joining us. Tesla had disappointing profits that he announced. It also announced no Robotaxi until October, and that will only be a prototype. Also, the low cost car is being delayed, The plan factory in Mexico is on pause at least until after the election, and a humanoid robot that Musk claims will send Tesla's valuation, soaring won't be ready anytime soon either, So this was a round of disappointments.
Yeah, where's the good news in order this? Yeah, and the earnings. The future, I mean the future clearly is important and investors wanted to hear more concrete detail about future projects, future projects which will define Tesla in future to be more like an AI stock rather than just an EV company. So clearly there's a lot of detail that investors were looking for, but it doesn't seem more too given we are only a few more quarters away from having an affordable car, having more detail on the robotaxi for example. But clearly the here and now and what was always going to be a difficult year for Tesla is weaker deliveries and an impact on earnings in its core business.
So, Danny, how is business in China for this company?
For China Tesla, it's been a tough one given the competition is getting even more intense from Chinese players who are becoming more aggressive on price. They're being more in bolden with their war chest to take on Tesla head on, and Tesla has seen that impact in the impact on its China deliveries. So it's inevitable that it has to look further afield for more growth, but clearly that has been tough where on all sides, whether it be in Europe in the US, there are challenges which are hinting or hindering its ability to sell, whether it be high interest rates or with even more competition. So clearly the challenge for MSCER is to look at or talk up rather the future, which you know, for the stock which had been down as much as forty percent earlier this year, it's still largely trading flat.
I think we always knew that tougher competition was coming, and as a kind of microcosm, China shows that when there's a lot of competition, the going can get pretty rough. And we've also had this development from General Motors saying no, it would not hit its target of a million shares this year, So that kind of shows you that demand is not so strong either. It doesn't seem like a good combination for Tesla.
I think for Tesla, if anybody can can double down and focus on specific items or specific targets, it will be them. You know, el Musk is very determined and even if they do miss on expectations, typically they're not necessarily by much. And so when you look at some of the legacy players who have less experience, they've just thrown money good after ad at certain things such as like what GM has. Clearly for them it's more of a struggle. But for Tesla, you know, working around the clock, and you know Elil Musk is notorious for his work ethic. I think for Musk he can probably get things done given his will and his determination.
You were talking a moment ago about the ev price wars in China, and I find it's interesting that Tesla is going to be again manufacturing a newer, low cost card in Austin, Texas. I mean, I've always associated Tesla as being, you know, somewhat of a premium brand in a way that Apple is. And here you have maybe a move to go a little bit down market. But perhaps that's what's required given the competition globally, right.
Tesla was always going to go more downmarket. What they wanted was at the beginning to price high to be able to afford all the investments it wanted to make, and then slowly trickle down so it could be a more affordable kind of driving experience for everybody. So with this about time. Frankly, this this new affordable, lower cost TV will be more I'm sure for strict back kind of Tesla offering. It is something that should in theory help it spur demand and growth once again without having to compromise on the prices it's having to do in the near term and has been doing.
It's kind of interesting too that Musk has come in with such full support for Donald Trump, and if the Republicans get in, that probably means the subsidies will be heading heading out the door, right, So I'm kind of curious, how, Delegate, how what is the nuanced handling of this for Elon Musk that makes him happy to support Donald Trump.
It's really a fascinating position because once we saw, you know clearly that the views of what Donald Trump wants to do with the with taffs, with the EV sector buy and large, it doesn't necessarily sound very good for us someone like Tesla, for Elon Musk, but with with his full support for Trump and clearly very interesting how it affects his business and you know, the views on the board or on Mexico. How Tesla has announced that it's going to slow down its plans on making decision or taking action on its Mexico factory until after the election. All of these things for whether it be Tesla or for other businesses who have invested billions in building battery factories in parts of America. Clearly there's a lot of what happens next if Donald Trump becomes the next US president.
Yeah, well, battery factories. And I'm curious about the situation in China where batteries are being in very much in high demand. Now, given the explosion that's happening in the ev industry, what is is Tesla doing to try to make sure that it has adequate supply of batteries in the Shanghai production line.
Well, Tesla has always had very good supply, and namely from one very key supply in c at l c ATL is the world's biggest batory maker and Tesla is its most important customers, so there's no shortage of supply there. And it's just a question of where someone like Tesla finds demand, not just in China, but for where it exports out of China to other parts of the world. And clearly, when things have been slowing down in sales, it takes a bit of an effort to try and stoke up that demand again. So whether we see Shanghai, for example, becoming a useful tool in building the more affordable taxi later on down the line. You know, they've been very efficient and very proactive in building cars for Tesla at a phenomenal rate. So it's a watcher space to see how someone like Shanghai becomes a key part for the future of Tesla once again.
And if there is less regulation, for instance, if the Republicans win, is there chance that that could actually help Tesla because the the other car made might suffer more than Tesla in that environment.
It's an interesting one because Tesla giving it all in on electric vehicles. The summation is, well, does the rules or the policies of the future benefit more the ice makers such as your general motors such as your forts. So it's interesting to see what happens in terms of future policies just to see where Tesla ends up.
Danny Lee is with us. He's a big man. He's a sort of hulking guy with a big voice on transport. He's our Asia Transport reporter.
This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.
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