Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories making news and moving markets in the APEC region. You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's take a closer look at the Broadcom story and also speak more broadly about what's happening in the semiconductor space with Bloomberg's Kun John Sabani. He is our senior Semiconductor analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from San Francisco. Cunjohn, It's always a pleasure when I look at the guidance for the current quarter, the company basically coming in around one hundred million dollars below the average estimate, and still the stock gets punished in the way that it was. Is there something more that we need to talk about here, that this is not just a miss on guidance, that there's something else afoot.

This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories making news and moving markets in the APEC region. You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's take a closer look at the Broadcom story and also speak more broadly about what's happening in the semiconductor space with Bloomberg's Kun John Sabani. He is our senior Semiconductor analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from San Francisco. Cunjohn, It's always a pleasure when I look at the guidance for the current quarter, the company basically coming in around one hundred million dollars below the average estimate, and still the stock gets punished in the way that it was. Is there something more that we need to talk about here, that this is not just a miss on guidance, that there's something else afoot.

Really, you know, the stock reaction so far has been surprising to us. Coming into the earnings. There were a couple of things we and investors were keen to focus on, namely the AI revenues, which they upsided by a billion dollars. Second, the VMware integration and the software revenue growth, which again came better than expected. The weakness, this very slight weakness, Really one hundred million dollars is very small given the magnetity of revenues they make. The weakness was really that the non AI cyclical legacy segments did not recover or are not recovering as fast as we had thought. Now that's not broadcome specific. That's going around in the end markets across the board in semis, in those legacy cyclical end markets. So the reaction seems to be a little bit overreaction to me.

Really, you know, the stock reaction so far has been surprising to us. Coming into the earnings. There were a couple of things we and investors were keen to focus on, namely the AI revenues, which they upsided by a billion dollars. Second, the VMware integration and the software revenue growth, which again came better than expected. The weakness, this very slight weakness, Really one hundred million dollars is very small given the magnetity of revenues they make. The weakness was really that the non AI cyclical legacy segments did not recover or are not recovering as fast as we had thought. Now that's not broadcome specific. That's going around in the end markets across the board in semis, in those legacy cyclical end markets. So the reaction seems to be a little bit overreaction to me.

Can we take a bigger picture here in terms of what is that mean when these non AI components of the companies aren't doing as well?

Can we take a bigger picture here in terms of what is that mean when these non AI components of the companies aren't doing as well?

Yeah. So, you know, semiconductor is exposed to various industries and end markets. So typically we divide the segments within semiconductors into cyclical because inherently, historically semiconductors has been a cyclical industry that goes up and down with the economy in different segments. AI is the new sort of you know, very new area of business for them, and exposure, which is currently not seeing cycles but is more secular, so every year you see growth increasing and increasing, so it has not met a single full cycle. So these cyclical end markets are something like Heelco's your service providers, your industrial end markets, right your broadband, your overall general purpose it spend. And we have heard this across the board from other companies that these markets have gone are going through its trap, and some companies are seeing in the bottom a few quarters earlier, some a little bit later. But the overall thesis across our oral sentiment is the traft has sort of been confirmed, but the recovery out of the straft is as not strong as we had expected.

Yeah. So, you know, semiconductor is exposed to various industries and end markets. So typically we divide the segments within semiconductors into cyclical because inherently, historically semiconductors has been a cyclical industry that goes up and down with the economy in different segments. AI is the new sort of you know, very new area of business for them, and exposure, which is currently not seeing cycles but is more secular, so every year you see growth increasing and increasing, so it has not met a single full cycle. So these cyclical end markets are something like Heelco's your service providers, your industrial end markets, right your broadband, your overall general purpose it spend. And we have heard this across the board from other companies that these markets have gone are going through its trap, and some companies are seeing in the bottom a few quarters earlier, some a little bit later. But the overall thesis across our oral sentiment is the traft has sort of been confirmed, but the recovery out of the straft is as not strong as we had expected.

As you know, Kunjohn a broadcome as a major chip supplier for Apple. Is it too much to kind of read through what we're hearing from Broadcom and kind of conclude anything around Apple's business.

As you know, Kunjohn a broadcome as a major chip supplier for Apple. Is it too much to kind of read through what we're hearing from Broadcom and kind of conclude anything around Apple's business.

Well, so there implied guidance for their wireless segment, which is really what the segment comprises, of which they only sell their chips to Apple amongst other handset makers, did not come weak, So there's nothing weakness to be implied from there, it was in line and from what we expected.

Well, so there implied guidance for their wireless segment, which is really what the segment comprises, of which they only sell their chips to Apple amongst other handset makers, did not come weak, So there's nothing weakness to be implied from there, it was in line and from what we expected.

So obviously we see that the AI business is doing well. How does this provide this constructive view on the AI bawl narrative, especially because we've had I had some a little bit of a drawback in that narrative over the past few weeks.

So obviously we see that the AI business is doing well. How does this provide this constructive view on the AI bawl narrative, especially because we've had I had some a little bit of a drawback in that narrative over the past few weeks.

Yeah, I see most of the drawbacks has been acting out on the stock price side. When you look at the fundamentals of the key AI chip suppliers, which we can just name in one hand, all of them have come out with great numbers and great and upsided guidance. So from a fundamental perspective, the demand signals keep on getting stronger. There's sort of nothing highlight, no risk factors there that we have seen, at least from the earnings of these companies that I've talked about. Similar Rotcom also upsided their numbers for AI for the sea.

Yeah, I see most of the drawbacks has been acting out on the stock price side. When you look at the fundamentals of the key AI chip suppliers, which we can just name in one hand, all of them have come out with great numbers and great and upsided guidance. So from a fundamental perspective, the demand signals keep on getting stronger. There's sort of nothing highlight, no risk factors there that we have seen, at least from the earnings of these companies that I've talked about. Similar Rotcom also upsided their numbers for AI for the sea.

You know, when you talk about semiconductors, it's such a broad category, so many different types of chips, whether they're processors or memory chips. But I have to ask you Coo John about the story that our Ian King reported earlier about Intel considering options for its stake and Mobile Eye Global now we know that Intel has been struggling the business model right now being challenged. CEO Pat Gelsinger had wanted to build out a foundry business that seems to be somewhat in doubt right now. There are other parts of Intel's business that have been struggling. What do we know about this story right now and the degree to which Intel is really kind of struggling to find its balance once again.

You know, when you talk about semiconductors, it's such a broad category, so many different types of chips, whether they're processors or memory chips. But I have to ask you Coo John about the story that our Ian King reported earlier about Intel considering options for its stake and Mobile Eye Global now we know that Intel has been struggling the business model right now being challenged. CEO Pat Gelsinger had wanted to build out a foundry business that seems to be somewhat in doubt right now. There are other parts of Intel's business that have been struggling. What do we know about this story right now and the degree to which Intel is really kind of struggling to find its balance once again.

Yeah, I mean, look, Intel has been dealing with fires at multiple runs. If you divide Intel into its two core businesses, one is the product which is the chip business. Right mainly, the biggest portion that chip business comes from PCs and CPUs amongst other things, selling into data centers. That business has seen has been going through decline for a while. The key important thing there is they've been losing share to its competitors. And the other core business is the foundry business, like you outlined. So they have been you know, multiple nodes or i should say multiple years behind PSMC, which continues to be the leader in advanced manufacturing nodes or in advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology. So they're trying to play catch up from all fronts, and you know, catching up and creating a brand new out foundry business which they can support to external customers is a multi year, three to five year and significantly expensive venture for which they need support from the Chipsacks funds, that customers, etc. So when you're trying to regain leadership in your product, regain leadership in your foundry business, it doesn't help also that the end markets at the same time are going against you, which we saw PCs sort of bottomed in twenty twenty three. Data center. Again, most of the dollar revenues right now are going towards the AI chip and in fact, Intel frankly missed that AI train because they were solely focused on the CPUs and their accelerator's program is not working as much as their peers. So basically you're you're again fighting fire on multiple fronts.

Yeah, I mean, look, Intel has been dealing with fires at multiple runs. If you divide Intel into its two core businesses, one is the product which is the chip business. Right mainly, the biggest portion that chip business comes from PCs and CPUs amongst other things, selling into data centers. That business has seen has been going through decline for a while. The key important thing there is they've been losing share to its competitors. And the other core business is the foundry business, like you outlined. So they have been you know, multiple nodes or i should say multiple years behind PSMC, which continues to be the leader in advanced manufacturing nodes or in advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology. So they're trying to play catch up from all fronts, and you know, catching up and creating a brand new out foundry business which they can support to external customers is a multi year, three to five year and significantly expensive venture for which they need support from the Chipsacks funds, that customers, etc. So when you're trying to regain leadership in your product, regain leadership in your foundry business, it doesn't help also that the end markets at the same time are going against you, which we saw PCs sort of bottomed in twenty twenty three. Data center. Again, most of the dollar revenues right now are going towards the AI chip and in fact, Intel frankly missed that AI train because they were solely focused on the CPUs and their accelerator's program is not working as much as their peers. So basically you're you're again fighting fire on multiple fronts.

So overall, what's your outlook for the seven conductor industry and for AI stocks.

So overall, what's your outlook for the seven conductor industry and for AI stocks.

Yeah, so, you know, we are looking at this semine industry based on the end market exposure. When we look at the legacy cyclical end markets general purpose, enterprise, industrial, automotive, these are going through some tough times right now. We are seeing some green shoots in some pockets of this end market showing that demand is coming back, but you know the slope of their demand recovery remains a concern. Now. When we look at the secular portions of this, which is AI, we see it kicking on all firing on all cylinders. We don't see any slowdown within that sector. So that's how we look at the second from different in market perspective.

Yeah, so, you know, we are looking at this semine industry based on the end market exposure. When we look at the legacy cyclical end markets general purpose, enterprise, industrial, automotive, these are going through some tough times right now. We are seeing some green shoots in some pockets of this end market showing that demand is coming back, but you know the slope of their demand recovery remains a concern. Now. When we look at the secular portions of this, which is AI, we see it kicking on all firing on all cylinders. We don't see any slowdown within that sector. So that's how we look at the second from different in market perspective.

Kun John, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so much for being with us, Kun John Sabani, Senior Semiconductor analyst or Bloomberg Intelligence. Katie Kaminski joins as she is the chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex, joining us from Boston. Nice, if you do have time for us. What do you make of where we are right now in the overall economic I noted that the ISM Services index may be a little bit of a positive surprise, but that ADP number on private payrolls may have been a little disappointing. Where are we at the moment?

Kun John, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so much for being with us, Kun John Sabani, Senior Semiconductor analyst or Bloomberg Intelligence. Katie Kaminski joins as she is the chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex, joining us from Boston. Nice, if you do have time for us. What do you make of where we are right now in the overall economic I noted that the ISM Services index may be a little bit of a positive surprise, but that ADP number on private payrolls may have been a little disappointing. Where are we at the moment?

So what we're seeing in the trend falling space is we've actually seen a massive pivot that's been a little bit more defensive in other asset classes, which.

So what we're seeing in the trend falling space is we've actually seen a massive pivot that's been a little bit more defensive in other asset classes, which.

Is definitely making me a little bit.

Is definitely making me a little bit.

Concerned going into the fall, particularly, you've seen this risk off trade this week.

Concerned going into the fall, particularly, you've seen this risk off trade this week.

It's been seeping out since early June.

It's been seeping out since early June.

So across different asset class themes, you're definitely seeing a little bit more of a higher probability that we could have or a session or a harder landing than we anticipated earlier this year.

So across different asset class themes, you're definitely seeing a little bit more of a higher probability that we could have or a session or a harder landing than we anticipated earlier this year.

So, if you had to bet on what the Fed will do on the eighteenth, are you in the twenty five basis point right cut camp or are you in the fifty camp?

So, if you had to bet on what the Fed will do on the eighteenth, are you in the twenty five basis point right cut camp or are you in the fifty camp?

I'd say I'm in the twenty five just because I think if they go fifty negative information also can be taken the wrong way as well. So what we've noticed is any sort of concern and economic data or any miss in economic data now has been really a focus. So my guess is that they'll be more conservative just to kind of keep things going smoothly.

I'd say I'm in the twenty five just because I think if they go fifty negative information also can be taken the wrong way as well. So what we've noticed is any sort of concern and economic data or any miss in economic data now has been really a focus. So my guess is that they'll be more conservative just to kind of keep things going smoothly.

I noted earlier that the swaps market is pricing in a total of about one hundred basis points and easing between now and the end of the year. Do you think that's a little too aggressive?

I noted earlier that the swaps market is pricing in a total of about one hundred basis points and easing between now and the end of the year. Do you think that's a little too aggressive?

I mean it could be, because I guess you know, if you've looked at the Fed over the last couple of years, they have been a little bit slower to kind of at moving, but then once they do, they have moved quickly.

I mean it could be, because I guess you know, if you've looked at the Fed over the last couple of years, they have been a little bit slower to kind of at moving, but then once they do, they have moved quickly.

So for example with hikes and so.

So for example with hikes and so.

I think after you start seeing that going, people are anticipating that if it's if they're really needing to actually cut rates, that they'll keep going quickly like they did when they were hiking.

I think after you start seeing that going, people are anticipating that if it's if they're really needing to actually cut rates, that they'll keep going quickly like they did when they were hiking.

We were talking a moment ago about the disappointing guidance from Broadcom chip Player. Obviously, this AI trade has been so much of really why the equity market has performed so well recently. Are you convinced that we are at a point now where the market really needs to come to terms with the fact that we have yet to really see the ROI that's necessary to justify some of the valuations in some of these AI related names.

We were talking a moment ago about the disappointing guidance from Broadcom chip Player. Obviously, this AI trade has been so much of really why the equity market has performed so well recently. Are you convinced that we are at a point now where the market really needs to come to terms with the fact that we have yet to really see the ROI that's necessary to justify some of the valuations in some of these AI related names.

I think the challenge with high evaluations like this is that they're very, very concentrated, and anytime markets are concentrated in this way and you have positioning that came off some but that has come back as well, there's still a lot of room where we might need to reprice, especially with something so new like this. It's hard to estimate what the NPV of that particular. Those technologies are so we could definitely have a repricing as we try to figure out.

I think the challenge with high evaluations like this is that they're very, very concentrated, and anytime markets are concentrated in this way and you have positioning that came off some but that has come back as well, there's still a lot of room where we might need to reprice, especially with something so new like this. It's hard to estimate what the NPV of that particular. Those technologies are so we could definitely have a repricing as we try to figure out.

Where that's going to go later this year.

Where that's going to go later this year.

Historically the month of September is pretty dicey for the equity market. Are we at risk of maybe a little bit more downside?

Historically the month of September is pretty dicey for the equity market. Are we at risk of maybe a little bit more downside?

I would definitely say so.

I would definitely say so.

I mean September and October are definitely tricky months for equity markets. If you look at where trend positioning has moved, you've also seen that as well, that's become much more reticent, and you've also seen a lot more risk off behavior with stock bond correlations going back to normal. So in that sense, I think people are nervous about what are the ramifications of all the policy that we have sort of endured in the last two.

I mean September and October are definitely tricky months for equity markets. If you look at where trend positioning has moved, you've also seen that as well, that's become much more reticent, and you've also seen a lot more risk off behavior with stock bond correlations going back to normal. So in that sense, I think people are nervous about what are the ramifications of all the policy that we have sort of endured in the last two.

Or three years.

Or three years.

We can talk about Fed policy, we can also talk about fiscal policy, and let's talk about the Is that pretty much noise at this point kind of around the periphery of the market oors some of that the proposals that we are hearing from either Trump or Harris. Is that beginning to penetrate.

We can talk about Fed policy, we can also talk about fiscal policy, and let's talk about the Is that pretty much noise at this point kind of around the periphery of the market oors some of that the proposals that we are hearing from either Trump or Harris. Is that beginning to penetrate.

Well, I think it's adding to a lot of volatility because it's really still even though it's only about two months away, I feel like there's definitely still more volatility in terms of different narratives we're seeing, and we've definitely seen a lot more volatility in many different asset classes that are much more directly impacted by policy choice. So, for example, if you look at the commodity sector, that has definitely been in a downward trend, but it has been moving around quite a bit, so I do think that it's creating a lot of noise.

Well, I think it's adding to a lot of volatility because it's really still even though it's only about two months away, I feel like there's definitely still more volatility in terms of different narratives we're seeing, and we've definitely seen a lot more volatility in many different asset classes that are much more directly impacted by policy choice. So, for example, if you look at the commodity sector, that has definitely been in a downward trend, but it has been moving around quite a bit, so I do think that it's creating a lot of noise.

Yeah, I'm looking at crude oils sub seventy dollars, that's WTI. So we had lower treasury yields today, not by much. But one of the things that's been happening lately is the dollar has been trading week. Is that a trend that you expect to continue or is this a bit of an anomaly the dollar relative to some of the other currencies around the world, particularly in Asia. I'm thinking of the end especially, do you think the dollar is going to recover a little bit?

Yeah, I'm looking at crude oils sub seventy dollars, that's WTI. So we had lower treasury yields today, not by much. But one of the things that's been happening lately is the dollar has been trading week. Is that a trend that you expect to continue or is this a bit of an anomaly the dollar relative to some of the other currencies around the world, particularly in Asia. I'm thinking of the end especially, do you think the dollar is going to recover a little bit?

Well, actually, the dollar has been very much under pressure for the last few weeks. But we've been seeing increasing signals of weakness and the dollar, and that doesn't surprise me because in general, cuts particularly from the US FED, is going to put pressure on the dollar, and so we're definitely seeing that theme play out, but you also see counter forces. So the dollar does tend to rally when the equity market sells off, so you're seeing a little bit of both. But it seems to be that FED policy is really the biggest driver of the dollar moves recently as we move into potential shift in policy.

Well, actually, the dollar has been very much under pressure for the last few weeks. But we've been seeing increasing signals of weakness and the dollar, and that doesn't surprise me because in general, cuts particularly from the US FED, is going to put pressure on the dollar, and so we're definitely seeing that theme play out, but you also see counter forces. So the dollar does tend to rally when the equity market sells off, so you're seeing a little bit of both. But it seems to be that FED policy is really the biggest driver of the dollar moves recently as we move into potential shift in policy.

So you seem a little cautious on risk assets here in the US, and I'm wondering whether that is kind of motivating you to look offshore a little bit. Are you doing that right now?

So you seem a little cautious on risk assets here in the US, and I'm wondering whether that is kind of motivating you to look offshore a little bit. Are you doing that right now?

So we're looking across equities, you're not seeing You're actually seeing the US still being a little stronger than outside the US. China in particular has shown more negative signals recently. So I think there still is that US looks a little bit better, that this idea of a self landing is still on the table.

So we're looking across equities, you're not seeing You're actually seeing the US still being a little stronger than outside the US. China in particular has shown more negative signals recently. So I think there still is that US looks a little bit better, that this idea of a self landing is still on the table.

But I do think the biggest area.

But I do think the biggest area.

We're looking at is much more how people are behaving in other asset classes, particularly fixed income commodities, and how that may play into sort of repricing the possibility of a recessionary type move or a potential pullback this fall.

We're looking at is much more how people are behaving in other asset classes, particularly fixed income commodities, and how that may play into sort of repricing the possibility of a recessionary type move or a potential pullback this fall.

The flip side of some of the dollar weakness that we were talking about a moment ago is the strength that we have seen lately in the Japanese and some of that is a Bank of Japan story. I get that, and Governor Uwaita, the head of the BOJ, indicating that the central bank there is inclined to titan Further, one of the things it has to be looked at is where the economy is overall and where inflation is in Japan overall. But I think many of the folks that we chat with on the show are of the belief that we could get another rate hike, albeit small, between now and the end of the year from Japan. And I'm wondering at what point this begins to create a repatriation of Japanese money out of markets like let's say, the US and back to Japan. Do you think that's a real risk.

The flip side of some of the dollar weakness that we were talking about a moment ago is the strength that we have seen lately in the Japanese and some of that is a Bank of Japan story. I get that, and Governor Uwaita, the head of the BOJ, indicating that the central bank there is inclined to titan Further, one of the things it has to be looked at is where the economy is overall and where inflation is in Japan overall. But I think many of the folks that we chat with on the show are of the belief that we could get another rate hike, albeit small, between now and the end of the year from Japan. And I'm wondering at what point this begins to create a repatriation of Japanese money out of markets like let's say, the US and back to Japan. Do you think that's a real risk.

I mean, I think definitely, because what you're seeing right now, especially when you look at the carry trade and what happened in August, there has been a big retracement of a lot of positioning, and I think if you start to see that divergence where Japan is hiking and the US has started a cutting cycle or an eating cycle that creates another incentive which I think could definitely cause flows. And you've already seen the power of that in August, just with how much we saw that unwide and the carry trade and how much the yen has been that funding currency. So I think it could definitely be the case, just how extremely different they are out of.

I mean, I think definitely, because what you're seeing right now, especially when you look at the carry trade and what happened in August, there has been a big retracement of a lot of positioning, and I think if you start to see that divergence where Japan is hiking and the US has started a cutting cycle or an eating cycle that creates another incentive which I think could definitely cause flows. And you've already seen the power of that in August, just with how much we saw that unwide and the carry trade and how much the yen has been that funding currency. So I think it could definitely be the case, just how extremely different they are out of.

Cycle with everyone else.

Cycle with everyone else.

So, Katie, last question, do you want to be exposed to Japan right now? Is that a worthwhile trade for you?

So, Katie, last question, do you want to be exposed to Japan right now? Is that a worthwhile trade for you?

I think it's a risky one right now, just because of how you know, how dislocated it is from what's going on outside the US. But that means, you know, from our perspective, that means that there could be very interesting trends to follow going forward.

I think it's a risky one right now, just because of how you know, how dislocated it is from what's going on outside the US. But that means, you know, from our perspective, that means that there could be very interesting trends to follow going forward.

So maybe being long.

So maybe being long.

The end, which we're starting to see some indication, which I think is is.

The end, which we're starting to see some indication, which I think is is.

Definitely a change of pace since the last few years.

Definitely a change of pace since the last few years.

Katie, thank you so much for joining us here on day Break Asia. A good weekend to you there in Boston, Katie Kaminski, chief re search strategist at Alpha Simplex. Well, the CIDIC CLSA Investor Forum will get underway at the Grand hiatt in Hong Kong on Monday. This event will feature a number of the region's most prominent market players joining us. Now for a little more is Sean cochrane. He is head of research at CLSA, joining us from our studios in Hong Kong. Good of you to make time to chat with us. Thanks for dropping by. As I understand it, this is the thirty first year of the forum. Can you help me understand what this is primarily known for sure?

Katie, thank you so much for joining us here on day Break Asia. A good weekend to you there in Boston, Katie Kaminski, chief re search strategist at Alpha Simplex. Well, the CIDIC CLSA Investor Forum will get underway at the Grand hiatt in Hong Kong on Monday. This event will feature a number of the region's most prominent market players joining us. Now for a little more is Sean cochrane. He is head of research at CLSA, joining us from our studios in Hong Kong. Good of you to make time to chat with us. Thanks for dropping by. As I understand it, this is the thirty first year of the forum. Can you help me understand what this is primarily known for sure?

Yeah, thirty one years indeed, And what we really do is we get about a couple of thousand investors to come in and talk to over five hundred corporate representatives to decide what's going on specifically within Asia, which is our primary coverage focus, and of course within the world. And it basically helps everyone take their view as to how they're going to help their clients or directly themselves make money in markets.

Yeah, thirty one years indeed, And what we really do is we get about a couple of thousand investors to come in and talk to over five hundred corporate representatives to decide what's going on specifically within Asia, which is our primary coverage focus, and of course within the world. And it basically helps everyone take their view as to how they're going to help their clients or directly themselves make money in markets.

Do you aggregate these viewpoints to kind of come up with some cohesive viewpoint on how well the economies in the Asia Pacific are performing? I know there are individual ones and there is a differentiator here when you consider what's going on let's say in Nasie and versus China, versus South Korea, versus Japan. But I'm wondering whether you're able to formulate, given all of the diversity and viewpoint some type of cohesive point of view.

Do you aggregate these viewpoints to kind of come up with some cohesive viewpoint on how well the economies in the Asia Pacific are performing? I know there are individual ones and there is a differentiator here when you consider what's going on let's say in Nasie and versus China, versus South Korea, versus Japan. But I'm wondering whether you're able to formulate, given all of the diversity and viewpoint some type of cohesive point of view.

Absolutely, so I guess the answer is both yes and no. So let me start with the no and then go to the yes and the no. Is that what Seelisa loves to do is we call ourselves a house of views rather than having a house view. We pride ourselves in trying to provide insights to our clients, and we have a hard time believing if we tell an analyst they must take a certain assumption while doing their work that they can truly believe, deliver conviction and provide their best insights to clients. So we don't force cohesion. However, of course I find the forum of myself personally extremely useful, and we do provide reports to clients both throughout the course of the event and afterwards to put together that picture. Personally, I find it quite useful because we can all look at the data, but of course part of the data can be revised up or down, and so it's that aggregation of a huge amount of anecdote in one place is incredibly valuable to come up with a really informed you that is right on the pulse of what's happening right now.

Absolutely, so I guess the answer is both yes and no. So let me start with the no and then go to the yes and the no. Is that what Seelisa loves to do is we call ourselves a house of views rather than having a house view. We pride ourselves in trying to provide insights to our clients, and we have a hard time believing if we tell an analyst they must take a certain assumption while doing their work that they can truly believe, deliver conviction and provide their best insights to clients. So we don't force cohesion. However, of course I find the forum of myself personally extremely useful, and we do provide reports to clients both throughout the course of the event and afterwards to put together that picture. Personally, I find it quite useful because we can all look at the data, but of course part of the data can be revised up or down, and so it's that aggregation of a huge amount of anecdote in one place is incredibly valuable to come up with a really informed you that is right on the pulse of what's happening right now.

Is there a panel at this year's forum that you're especially looking forward to.

Is there a panel at this year's forum that you're especially looking forward to.

Well, we actually pride ourselves and have an extraordinary amount of content. So we have well over seventy direct speakers throughout the course of the day, and we have over thirteen thousand interactions that will occur during the week. But if I think of some of the speakers and content that I think investors will be most excited about. Obviously, we have Frank Luntz, who will be speaking about the likely outcome of the US election, and that's of course important in terms of global policy and the state of the US economy, which is a massive driver even here in Asia. We have some interesting speakers as well, and that we really pride ourselves on not just doing the standard cookie cut of what you might expect of an investment house. So we have a diplomat that will be talking about the state of geopolitics. We have macro specialists, but the curveball sort of speakers that are really a lot of fun. We have one speaker who's going to be talking about how to be indiestractable in a world driven by devices and social media. We have another speaker who's a former world class rugby player who looks at the role of team cohesion and the success of team sports, and we've collaborated on a report looks at how does that apply to the investment world and to corporate environments. We have another expert that works for sports legends around how do I use breathing to perform? And this matters even for say traders in a market environment where they're trying to put on the best trade in the in real time, manage their autonomous nervous system to perform really, really well. And we even have a poker player that is helping us understand risk reward ratios to make sure we can make great investment decisions.

Well, we actually pride ourselves and have an extraordinary amount of content. So we have well over seventy direct speakers throughout the course of the day, and we have over thirteen thousand interactions that will occur during the week. But if I think of some of the speakers and content that I think investors will be most excited about. Obviously, we have Frank Luntz, who will be speaking about the likely outcome of the US election, and that's of course important in terms of global policy and the state of the US economy, which is a massive driver even here in Asia. We have some interesting speakers as well, and that we really pride ourselves on not just doing the standard cookie cut of what you might expect of an investment house. So we have a diplomat that will be talking about the state of geopolitics. We have macro specialists, but the curveball sort of speakers that are really a lot of fun. We have one speaker who's going to be talking about how to be indiestractable in a world driven by devices and social media. We have another speaker who's a former world class rugby player who looks at the role of team cohesion and the success of team sports, and we've collaborated on a report looks at how does that apply to the investment world and to corporate environments. We have another expert that works for sports legends around how do I use breathing to perform? And this matters even for say traders in a market environment where they're trying to put on the best trade in the in real time, manage their autonomous nervous system to perform really, really well. And we even have a poker player that is helping us understand risk reward ratios to make sure we can make great investment decisions.

Sounds like a stimulating forum. Indeed, when you consider the role of government, are you inviting voices from various governments to sit down at the table and to to share their viewpoints as well?

Sounds like a stimulating forum. Indeed, when you consider the role of government, are you inviting voices from various governments to sit down at the table and to to share their viewpoints as well?

Absolutely so. We have a government officials from multiple countries that are presenting at the event, both at this event and in previous events. So where there's a government official that has a market message that's relevant to the market, or they need access to investors to understand what investors are thinking, or even they need access to corporates, then this is obviously a fantastic forum for them to do it. And so it's part and parcel of our event.

Absolutely so. We have a government officials from multiple countries that are presenting at the event, both at this event and in previous events. So where there's a government official that has a market message that's relevant to the market, or they need access to investors to understand what investors are thinking, or even they need access to corporates, then this is obviously a fantastic forum for them to do it. And so it's part and parcel of our event.

You mentioned Frank Launce there and kind of the US perspective. I'm wondering when you consider US China relations right now, whether this is going to be top of the line for this year's forum.

You mentioned Frank Launce there and kind of the US perspective. I'm wondering when you consider US China relations right now, whether this is going to be top of the line for this year's forum.

It's always a topic that's very, very important for investors. Over the last several years, the strategic competition between the US and China has created massive policy change, and certainly Frank can help us understand the likelihood of say a Trump or Harris administration winning the election, which would lead to obviously different policy implementations around how that relationship evolves. Although what's interesting is there does seem to be a degree of cohesion in terms of the US platform around China that has evolved since the first administration of Trump.

It's always a topic that's very, very important for investors. Over the last several years, the strategic competition between the US and China has created massive policy change, and certainly Frank can help us understand the likelihood of say a Trump or Harris administration winning the election, which would lead to obviously different policy implementations around how that relationship evolves. Although what's interesting is there does seem to be a degree of cohesion in terms of the US platform around China that has evolved since the first administration of Trump.

Can you give me a sense of the commonality that exists when you kind of assess the economic situation in China. I think it's a foregone conclusion that things are really weak right now and people have been waiting for a more robust response on the part of the government. But is the collective viewpoint from the world that you live in and the people that you speak with, is that a lot more needs to be done before we can say that China is beginning to turn a corner.

Can you give me a sense of the commonality that exists when you kind of assess the economic situation in China. I think it's a foregone conclusion that things are really weak right now and people have been waiting for a more robust response on the part of the government. But is the collective viewpoint from the world that you live in and the people that you speak with, is that a lot more needs to be done before we can say that China is beginning to turn a corner.

Yes, certainly, I don't since within our client base or even within our own analyst group an expectation of imminent change, and we also would not expect a dramatic policy shift out of the Chinese regulators and policymakers. From the investors point of view, there has been the presumption that China will remain slow for some time, and that is a reasonable proposition to take if we try to look forward about the growth prospects for the Chinese economy. It's a structural challenge that China is seeking to address, and it's really a question of how do you address it. China has taken the view that it does not want to pursue aggressive policy to accelerate the change because it wants to think about the cost of that policy. It's reluctant to issue significant federal level debt that would then obviously create costs of its own, which is often different to what we see in some Western Economies.

Yes, certainly, I don't since within our client base or even within our own analyst group an expectation of imminent change, and we also would not expect a dramatic policy shift out of the Chinese regulators and policymakers. From the investors point of view, there has been the presumption that China will remain slow for some time, and that is a reasonable proposition to take if we try to look forward about the growth prospects for the Chinese economy. It's a structural challenge that China is seeking to address, and it's really a question of how do you address it. China has taken the view that it does not want to pursue aggressive policy to accelerate the change because it wants to think about the cost of that policy. It's reluctant to issue significant federal level debt that would then obviously create costs of its own, which is often different to what we see in some Western Economies.

Sean, thank you so much for making time to chat with us and helping us set up this year's CIDIC CLSA Investor Forum, which gets underway Monday in Hong Kong. He is Sean Cochrane, head of Research at CLSA, joining us from our studios in Hong Kong. This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the pot Cast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app

Sean, thank you so much for making time to chat with us and helping us set up this year's CIDIC CLSA Investor Forum, which gets underway Monday in Hong Kong. He is Sean Cochrane, head of Research at CLSA, joining us from our studios in Hong Kong. This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the pot Cast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app