Featuring:
Bob Savage, Head of Markets Strategy and Insights at BNY
Jing Liu, Greater China Chief Economist at HSBC Global Research
Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg M-LIV Strategist in Singapore
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.
We welcome to the program, Bob Savage, head of Market Strategy and Inside set BN. Why joining us here in our studios in Hong Kong. Bob, thank you very much for coming in. So we mentioned that Asian stocks cautiously lowered, today we had US stocks cautiously. Hi, I guess it's a week to be cautious. With all those big events this week. How are you approaching this kind of avalanche of data?
So it's interesting you say that, Brian, and thank you for having me. I wrote about this week ahead as parallel universe. Last week was a pretty miserable one for stocks, and is this week going to be the same. Well, imagine a universe where politics just don't matter as much because the race is too close to calling. We just don't know what we don't know yet, so you know, just cast that aside. Imagine if earnings came out on expectations and you didn't have any great volatility of nerves around the magnificent seven. And finally, imagine the Fed actually talks about talking about cutting and makes clear that September is on the table. All of those things, if you put them together, make me risk on. So I'm not really that bearish. I understand the caution because you just got run over and it was the worst day on Wednesday last week that we had since twenty two. But I'm not a bear Okay.
So if you want to be long right now, is there a strategy that you're using, beg tactical here for a moment, put more money to work in areas away from technology.
So that that is the whole premise of the rotation trade in my mind, which is there are four hundred and ninety three shares in the S and P that might be darnings expectations and if the equal weighted SMP, you know, rallies back. It's on that basis bottoms up analysis that the economy is doing better. When you have two point eight percent second quarter growth, you would expect second quarter earnings to follow suit and even things out in the economy and not just be a AI hyped boom of investment flows. So tactically, yes, you know, the rotation trade makes some sense. It's just question which sectors and you know, choose wisely. I also think that in the longer term and bigger picture, markets are pretty worried about, you know, a normalization, not just here in the one or two sectors, but also across the whole world world.
It seems like since we've got two big camps, the four ninety three and the seven that you know, coming through this earning season, you'd have thought that if the megacaps traded sideways to slightly higher, that you probably want to overweight some of the four ninety three, But they didn't. The top seven actually got hit pretty good. Here We mentioned that Nvidia from an inter day levels down twenty percent now off the high, so it's almost like now it's time to be looking back at the meg seven.
Yeah. So the historic experience of whenever you have you know, forty percent of the S and P market cap geared towards one major sector, you normally have a correction. So are we in the midst of that correction. Perhaps I'm not convinced that it's over yet, but the proof will be in the putting them more concerned about how our client base has shown own this predilection to caution before the earnings and then all in after the earnings. And it let's be clear also when I look at our data set, and you know we have you know, Bank of New York is known for the movement of capital, the management of capital, and the safe keeping of capital. The world has fifty trillion dollars of money with our custody, and you know we measure that every day. So when I look at the flow into equities, it's positive, it has been positive. And the question of whether you know, the selling that we're seeing is cautionary into earnings and then they'll buy it back. That has been the modus operandi over the last you know year, So is this time different? Is the question to ask?
So of the fifty what was the.
Number you threw out there, fifty trillion, that's amazing. How much of that is in cash?
Not as much as you'd think. It's a little less than that. And it depends on what you mean by cash because or cash equivalent yeah, exactly, casha equivalents to which we measure. I think it's more like four and a half percent. It's down from the highs.
We've got a story with Heineken here, so we can bring it around to China for a moment. You know, Heineken bought into China Resources Beer.
It's not like anything really terrible has happened.
But because that stock has gone down a ton, Heineken had to take a big impairment charge and the stock went down ten percent in the latest session. So how are you looking at China now? Risk versus opportunity.
So I'm actually I would call my view one China benign neglect. What do I mean by that? You just have to give them time. Their markets are pretty much at rock bottom. Can they go lower? Sure, it's like a crab crawling along the bottom of the ocean, you know, or they're little bumps along the bottom. Sure. I'm not convinced that anyone that has put their faith in the consumer in China is going to get rewarded right away. But in the longer term, I think the policies that they're trying to put into place are going to eventually work. It's just a question of is it a year or is it two years? And how do you wait with benign neglects?
You're here in ten seconds?
What are you doing so in ten seconds? I like the idea of being long yen into the kay.
All right, interesting, Yeah, this is a big week.
We got the BOJ, we got the BOE, and we got the FED.
Anyway, Bob, thank you very much, Bob Savage there from BN one. In China, more small to medium sized banks such as city commercial lenders and rural banks may cut their deposit rates soon. That's according to a report by the Shanghai Securities News. You wonder what that does for people in their deposits. We're joined now by jing Liu, Greater China Chief GNOMERS that HSBC Global Research. So clearly, you know this is the type of move it's not really central to what's happening in China, but it's not good for consumers and that's the sector of the market that policymakers would like to stimulate. But it does help the bank's margins. Yeah.
I think it's important to some extent that banks still has reasonable profitability, and I think the change indeed may not be good news for depositors. But this is along the line that China also want to encourage the household to diversify their asset allocation. So if actually there's more options on different kind of asset investment, maybe they can divert into those.
Is there a way for the government to kind of coordinate a reduction in the rate that deposits at banks are yielding.
Well, I think you know, it sometimes comes in the format of the communication the window guidance, but the banks actually have a certain level of discretion on how they want to do that. In the past, we also observe some banks try to circumvent the regulation one way or the other. I think the concern from the regulator's perspective is that they don't want the banks to engage in the fierce price competition to the extent that they high cup the deposit rate massively just try to keep their market share or expand. That happened last year. In some cases the smaller banks end up with inverted net interest margin.
So we're looking at everything in China really to get a feel on when.
The animal spirits might be released. For instance, the box office was pretty good for that blockbuster film that.
Just came out.
And also the smartphone shipments in June were at fourteen point three percent year on year, and now we got this from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, an institute under one of the industry groups. So it's kind of interesting that there are pockets of strength, but it's just it's gonna take a while.
Yeah, I agree with you. I think we do see the pocket of strengths, especially you know, those relatively cheap items. I think because of the purchasing power from the lower income group has improved after the end of the pandemic, especially because of the certainty in their jobs, et cetera. So we have seen a lot along those lines. And also after the pandemic, people emphasize more on experiencing different things. So services consumption continue to perform well. But overall we need the household balance sheet improvement continue to make progress, and also the labor market outlook to improve to see the broad based animal spirit to come back.
What is your recipe or prescription that you would offer the authorities in China when it comes to addressing deflation. Is it something we're a lot more in the way of fiscal stimulus is needed. It's is it a different way in approaching monetary policy. What's the prescription here?
I think, you know, there are different things. First of all, the consumer sentiment. If there is improvement, substantial improvement, that can help, and I think you know that will depend on what's the next step in terms of the housing market measures and other things. And the other thing I want to mention is that usually in China's history, when we observe the deflation, especially on the PPI and some level of you know, consolidation by the upstream industries, you know, like the h to tackle the overcapacity problem, usually help quite a bit. And we do see steps trying to tackle that.
Yeah, it's hurt. It's hurt companies in their stock prices, for sure.
I mean there's deflation in the producer prices sector, but not in consumer prices companies.
Companies are struggling a little bit with this.
Yeah, I think we have observed one reason which actually has caused a lot of concerns by treating partners. It's this price competition among different h manufacturers. I think to some extent it might be a reflection of the perfect competition. But at the other end of the story might be we still see some of the companies which should already you know, exit but still continue to survive. That is why in the third planeum, we see there's a specific mention that China will actually go after the local government which might engage in illegal stimulus or tax breaks for companies. And I think if that's the case, that can help deal with an overcapacity problem. And also we have seen, you know, the measures to push for the green transition actually will call for you know, a certain standard of emission for example, which means those not so ESG type of producers might eventually exit the market as well.
Jing Blue.
Last question here, and it's about tariffs. I mean, what could tariffs from increased tariffs from the United States and the tariffs that we already have in place from Europe. But what could that mean for China.
Well, I think this is probably a very complicated process. It will involve the dynamics such as you know, the interaction between China and other trading partners, and I think Chinese government is now proactively engaged in conversations with different trading partners try to mitigate the potential tariffs and offer to invest more to replace the export Jin.
Thank you for Jowining is jinglu Greater China, chief economist at HSBC Global Research.
Let's bring in Bloomberg m Live strategist Mark Cranfield, who joins us from our studios in Singapore. Market. It's always a pleasure, especially when we have three major central bank meetings to talk about this week. Can we start with the BOJ because there's been so much strength lately. In the end, I think it's a reflection of the market betting that we're going to get two things from the BOJ this week. Maybe that would move in the direction of policy normalization, a rate hike and a commitment to reduce bond buying. Is that fair?
Yes, I think that's exactly a big part of the reason why that Jenna's has a pretty good run for the past couple of weeks. But at what At the same time, it raises the stakes dramatically for this Bank of Japan meeting because if trade does remember pretty well what happened in June. Going into that meeting, there were also expectations that there would be some form of policy tightening, which didn't happen at all. There was no change, and even then the press conference and Governor Luada he actually seemed to dial back and it sounded quite dubvish, and of course that was the trigger for Dolly yen to rise towards one hundred and sixty two area. Since then, we had some intervention and we're back to levels in the one fifties again now, so the stakes are very, very high.
I wanted to ask you about the unwinding of the kerry trade. It's one of the things that's gotten some credit for the selloff in megacap tech, because you know, the trades that a lot of people were lined up on were shortening the yen and going along megacap tech, and then when the yen all of a sudden boom from one sixty one to one fifty three, that caused a lot of people to have to you know, cover their shorts and sell I realized there's you know, there's a lot of different prongs here, but there is a certain one that got some attention last week.
I think that's a convenient explanation. I think it's more of a coincidence. I suggest that actually what was going on is you had portfolio reduction to cover P and L losses, so or at least a reduced P and l prospects anyway. So two of the biggest trades, and they're not the only trade, but two trades that sh have had a big theme are being long of the big tech stocks, particularly with the AI narrative shortening the yen against a variety of currencies, not just a dollar, but also the euro or the others as well. It coincidentally, at the same time, as people became more hawkish on the Bank of Japan and fairly confident that the Federal Reserve would announce a rate cup pretty soon. That helped the end move. At the same time, we had weak earnings and people thinking that the AI narrative had been well overdone. The two coincided. It meant that quite a then you would find there be portfolio managers who have both trades. They would have the tech trade, they would have the yend trade, they would have others as well. Suddenly they're reducing positions all over the place.
Let's get back to the policy side, and an interesting piece in the New York Times here today indicating that Japan wanted higher inflation. It's here and it hurts. Do you think the boj waited too long to kind of make major changes to policy. I know it's a kind of subjective point of view, but I'd like your thought.
I think there's a reasonable case that they're behind the curve. I think if any central bank around the world can be accused of taking too long, it probably is the Bank of Japan. I think they fumbled the opportunities that the window was there pretty clearly after they raised interest rates in March, there was clearly a window for them to follow up in April to increase again. The only move by ten basis points, So really they could have done another small move in April and probably another small move in June. Here we are three meetings and now they finally look as though they're going to move forward, but they could have done it before.
Hey, Mark, I'm kind of curious about one other big mover in markets over the past couple of weeks, the rotation trade, or at least some sort of broadening out of the markets. There you've got people like Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley saying the dimmer outlook for corporate earnings will hurt stocks that are tied to the economy, and Lori Calvacina at RBC Capital Markets said that trends in earnings revisions don't yet support a further rotation. Have you been looking at this and did you see this as a healthy move or perhaps not a very wise one.
I think rotation is always is a good thing. That there have been times this year when people have said that the moves, particularly in the S and P five hundred two, concentrated, particularly on things like the big seven tech names, the so called Magnificent seven, driving too much of the market. So any kind anything that spreads out the the market into other sectors as well obviously is a good thing. But the interesting point about this is we come out to a huge week this week. We've got four of the biggest tech companies reporting Just them alone is worth something like twelve trillion US dollars between the three the four big tech stocks, and we still haven't had a nvidea. So if we get stories which are more AI positive and that narrative rebuilds, I suspect that we won't be seeing much in the way of rotation after that.
You want to make a bed, What do you think we're going to get in aggregate when we hear from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and there's.
One you get throw a Samsung in there too.
Yeah. Meta platforms, Yeah, in aggregate, what do we get? Is it going to be positive or is it going to be risk off? When it comes to these big four.
I think we do okay. I think for me the big one is Microsoft. I think they will have the clearest view on the AI world because of their relationship with Chat GDP. They'll give us the best read on what's going on.
Market's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to chat with us. Mark Cranfield, there, Bloomberg m Live Strategist. This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.