Brad Jacobs, Chairman at XPO, discusses the business of logistics and the economy as well as his forthcoming book How to Make a Few Billion Dollars, Bloomberg News Rates Reporter Michael McKenzie also joins the conversation. Rose Stuckey Kirk, Chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer at Verizon, talks about how technology can help underrepresented people. Bloomberg News Atlanta Bureau Chief Brett Pulley shares the details of his Bloomberg Businessweek cover story Hollywood Ignored Tyler Perry, So He Built His Own Media Empire. And we Drive to the Close with Carol Schleif, CIO at BMO Family Office.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Molly Smith. Producer: Paul Brennan.
This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Father All right, everybody, it has been a wild ride for the economy, global bonds, thinking around where rates go from here. We talked about yesterday the thirty year surgeon to its highest level since two thousand and seven. We got some jobs dated today, a little bit of softness, so maybe everybody calming down, so we're gonna have a great little roundtable because with us right now is Bloomberg News Rates reporter Michael McKenzie on zoom in New York City and then with a corporate perspective and more because he's going to stick around for a couple of blocks.
Hiss.
Brad Jacobs. He's founder and executive chair at XPO, co founder of United Rentals formature of United Ways. He's been described as a serial entrepreneur. He's got a new book out, which we're going to get to a little bit later on. But Brad is here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Brad, thank you so much. We're going to have Michael kind of lay out the rate environment. But how much do you listen and follow in terms of what's going on generally when it comes to rates, because it certainly impacts corporations balance sheets.
Potentially, we pay attention to a lot to them because that depends that determines what you want to do with your capital spending.
Do you want to spend more, do you want to spend less? Do you want to invest? So pay a lot of attention to that.
Well, Michael COMMANI in on it and then lay it out for us because it's been kind of a wild ride once again when it comes to global bonds.
Here it hairs Carol, and I think the story remains. People are still trying to work out whereas the top and yields, particularly for ten year yields, which matter a great deal for the US economy. That's the yield that determines mortgages and also it helps determine a lot of the corporate borrowing costs. It made a run above four eighty, A lot of people talking maybe five percent, but it wasn't that long ago. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago when we were talking about four to fifty was going to be the ceiling. So really, when you talk to investors and bond managers, as I've been doing for last a few days, there's still a sense of shell shock out there.
Yeah, tell us rad if you want to come in here on the logistics perspective, this has got to be such a tough environment to operate in right now with the idea that interest rates are high, I'm going to stay that way for a while. You've got goods demand in the economy seems to be waning. I mean, how are you managing this right now? And how would you describe how the business is doing well?
Interest rates are higher than what they work They were low for a while.
But I'm an old dog. I remember when interest rates were much higher than where they are now.
But is that an important point because we keep saying perspective. I remember working with folks who said, I remember having a fifteen sixteen seventy percent mortgage rate.
I remember when HYO bonds were in the mid teens and that was normal, and that was for a number of years. And I remember back at a United Rentals when Leon Black was on our board, and.
He of a poll of fame, of course.
One of the first inventors of the junk bond.
Now that the high yield called high yield, and I remember when when it went down to about ten percent, he said, we got to get as much yielded as hi yield this issue as much as possible.
It's never going to go below here.
Of course it did and stayed there for a long time. So I historically we're not at very high levels.
How do you look at the do we stay maybe here? Like how when you think about running businesses or we're going to get into you know, your kind of next chapter, if you will, But thinking about investing, do you think that we're this is kind of the environment we're going to be in for a while.
It depends so that there's in my career, I've never seen two simultaneous things that are going on right now, ever, going on at the same time.
So you've got the.
FED tightening, raising rates, slowing things down in possibly inducing a recession. But on the other hand, you have huge amount of stimulus going into the economy. So I was at the Jeffreys Industrials Conference a few weeks ago sixteen or seventeen presentations, half of them had a slide or two about how much money they were going to get from the Cares Act, from the Infrastructure Act, from Inflation Reduction Act. So this all trily is a stimulus. I thought naively, I thought that was done. I thought that was a couple of years ago. For it's now starting.
To come up in big amounts.
So that's inflationary. And yet you have the RAS and the rates. So let's just tug of war going on.
Michael, come on back in, because I think Brad brings in a good point right when we talk about the amount of money that continues to maybe come into the economy, fuel it and continue to put pressure on the inflationary side of things, what are the markets telling us about monetary policy and inflation at this point.
Well, he raised a very good point, and I think this is what the market has missed, in particularly the Bow market beginning to share. They really thought there was going to be a recession by now, and that hasn't come to fruition. And in fact, the stimutu is coming through the Biden infrastructure and other plans is still kicking in. So the key here is that's probably going to keep employment pretty tight. And that's the one metric that everyone's now watching. And until you see employment severely weak and then suggest economies on a recessionary path, bond yields are going to stay high and they may go higher. And I think inflation is still fairly elevated. It's more than double the Fed's targets, so that still has going to take time to come down. But a sticky inflation environment, you know, a Brazilian economy led by the job sector, and this fiscal stimulus still coming through from Washington, rates are higher for longer.
I want to I'm curious, Bride, do you have a question for a reads guy?
I do.
How confident are you in that? What's your level of conviction on that? Because most people have gotten this completely wrong last couple of years. I remember I was at a trade organization for mostly fortune two hundred CEOs about a year and a half ago, and we voted on the little slideo app of whether we're going to have a severe recession or remind recession or no recession, and over ninety.
Percent a conference pol but go ahead yes.
And and over ninety percent, well over ninety percent said it was either going to be a severe recession or a minor recession last year. So obviously that never happened. So it's how confident are you in your in your in your prediction.
Well, it's it's you made that you made that point bright. So I was talking to investors this morning. He said he thinks now that rates are at levels where you will get a recession next year. However he's still you know, that's his gut feel, but he says, I still got to check that I'm not confident enough that you know, we will get a real slow down. And so therefore it really I think the markets it's been saying recession recession has been caught out every time. I think it's still going to take time for the stimulus to come through and wear off. And I think the other real factor that I think one of the big changes here is at the Bob mark has always been used to this idea that ohur frates go up, something breaks, nothing's broken, and I think a reason why they haven't really seen anything break, outside of course regional banks who've now been ring fenced by the FED. And that's a very important point because as long as they stay ring fenced, that's not going to bleed into the economy as much. But I think the key fact here is you've got a lot of people sitting on thirty or fixed mortgages below three percent who do not want to sell their homes and take out a new mortgage. And you've got a lot of companies that benefited from borrowing at very low rate back in twenty one and twenty twenty, and again you're not going to get that corporate bond hit that we would have got from higher rates. So look, I think it's a fool's eron trying to predict more than three six months away. There are some very smart people as well, like Jeffrey Gunlack, who I listened to yesterday when he was speaking at a conference here in New York, saying that he thinks employment will will really start to fall apart towards the end of this year because they also are coming and they're going to be big. I just don't really know, but I think at this point, if the perils hold up, the employment holds up, it's going to be tough for this bomb market to not be higher for longer.
What chances do you give that will have a Jimmy Carter like stagflation the worst of both worlds. We will have inflation, it will also have no growth.
I mean, I mean when I talk to some big investors like dan I have some particularly PIMCO, it's a tail risk for them. They do worry that wages could kick up later this year and you're going to get stickier inflation, and then once the economy slowly but surely starts to buckle under these high rates, that you will get a more stagflationary type environment. I think that remains. That's not the base case most people are thinking here when you talk to them on the street. Economy will slow. We'll probably have a couple of quarters of soft growth, maybe one percent or less. But no one's really calling for a hard landing recession at this point. Really, when you when you when you dig into it, it just seems to be where we're probably going to muddle through because the stimulus VISI will stimulus, I think is such a huge difference to what we've seen in the last decade. It just didn't really come through after the global financial crisis in two thousand and eight, and that's why we just had very low rates for a very long time. The FED was doing all the heavy lifting, we weren't really undertaking these big stimulus programs that we're now seeing.
Right, So Michael just threw out a few scenarios for us here, Brad, we've got the potential for stagflation, recession. Just moneying through it all. What are you preparing for?
All the above?
All the above?
So when you're running a business, you have to you first really have to decide is your vision high.
Conviction or low conviction?
Right now, it's if you think it's high conviction, then you're not right because there's a lot of different scenarios here that got it played out, including geopolitical scenarios.
So you have to prepare for everything.
You can't just be paranoid and stop investing and stop growing, and you have to keep investing in the business, but you have to also be prepared for perhaps even a sudden downfall.
What are you most prepared for though? Is it that idea that we are all too rosy despite all the stimulus money still come from some of the spending programs, or is it you know, that's what I'm trying to Which way, So you just got about thirty and then you're going to come back and talk more so, I chaired.
Three companies and the answer is a little bit different for each company.
So in the.
Warehouse business and in the brokerage business, volumes have slowed, there's no question about that, and that's not a new piece of news. That's been slowly for quite a few months. And they haven't bottom and turned back up yet. They've slowed and they've staying down the bottom. On the LTL side, which is XPO, that's separate from what's going on in the macro because it's had two major events that have benefited XPO, the bankruptcy of Yellow and then now recently one of the biggest private company, SD's has had a big cyber attack and.
They're just down, so that benefits it.
Yeah, sadly that's a bad thing for them, but it's good for expert.
Bad news good news. I want to get back to our guest at this hour, delighted to still have with us, Brad Jacobs, founder and executive chair at XPO. I mentioned, co founder of United Rental's former chair of United Waste. I was doing some reading, I think we both were, and he's been described as a numbers guy, a serial entrepreneur, and he has a new book coming out, How to Make a few Billion dollars still with us in our interactive broker studio. Great discussion. Loved having you weigh in on kind of these micro data points or moves in the market and how you see it on a bigger perspective. If you had to describe the business environment right now in a word or handful of words, how would you do it? Br mixed it, uncertain, mixed it on class half full, class half empty or right at the medlaf class half Well, okay, so so walk us through, work it out. Labor market costs like.
What is labor market type?
Still absolutely well, it's not as tight as it was during COVID and no comparison. You can actually find workers, but wages are up and trending towards up. But you can find people. For instance, in the XPO business, we can find drivers. During COVID we couldn't find drivers, just our base core people, but a lot of people checked out and didn't come back.
It's got to be concerning for I would think a lot of CEOs right now looking at all this heightened strike activity is there, how would you describe right now, like the labor unrest around the country right now, And is that something that worries you at.
All, well as a company executive or as a citizen of the country.
Well, so to give it to us both, but more the company executives.
As a company executive, no, it doesn't bother me at all, because we were the target of a Teamsters national campaign for seven years and it didn't work, and they left and they went on too, Amazon, which is a much bunch, bigger fish than XPO.
So I suppose they're not coming back to us.
But even if they do, we work so hard at creating an environment in the workplace where people are happy to come to work and people feel valued and respected that that doesn't bother me.
How do you give them that though? I mean, there's so much demand right now for I would think a lot of your workers probably need to be in person right for the work that they do, and like so much of what people want is remote, and like you know, is it more in giving them different hours and schedule flexibility? What can you give to them?
Well, if you're a driver or you're a dock worker, you can't work the moment need to come in so and that's the majority of our workers there, So What you have to give them is respecting them, and you show respect by paying them properly, by listening to their needs, by communicating with them, letting them know what's going on in the whole company and how they fit in, showing them the letting them have pride in the work by Mario Harrick, who's replaced me as CEOs of an amazing job. He's done a really, really fantastic focus on making sure we don't damage freight, make sure we deliver freight on time, which are very important things in our business. And those statistics in our company, those metrics have gone off the charts in the right direction.
You know.
We have a great function on the Bloomberg and it's like the supply chain, and it talks about your customers and who are your clients basically and who you buy from. But your customers include everybody from Amazon, Apple, eight A, m Low's, Walmart, home depots, so many more companies. And you have a global perspective. Where is though the strongest parts of the global economy in your view, and how does geopolitics potentially continue to kind of impact that.
Geopolitics is very important.
I think the two biggest things are obviously of Vladimir Putin and Chi Jimpin, who could single handedly, literally single handedly, either of them throw a pretty big monkey ranch into the whole world economy. Those are not insignificant possibilities. Those are not one percent possibilities. So we have to pay attention to that. But we can't be obsessed by that. We can't just be held down and just just enamored but just that those features.
So we just keep trucking along.
But okay, cute, but bred in terms of the pushback against you know, the globalization of the economy, and we talk about that being pushed back, do you see that guy firsthand?
Yeah, so every so you mentioned before and increasingly so, no question, but that she mentioned before some of the customers we have, So I'm privileged to have windows into g XO RXO XPO where we have a whole cross section of customers around the whole world, and so you get to see a lot a lot of information what's going on, and you also get to interact with a lot of customers, a lot of boards of customers, a lot of C suite. There's not a single board in America that's not who has and has had business in China. Who's not thinking I need to diversify away from China. It's just the risk is too high.
So everyone universally is doing that.
What about the risks in our own political system? Does that crop up? Does that bother you? Does that worry you? About what happened this week with the Speaker of the House.
Well, that's the two party system, and that's been going on for a couple hundred years.
Do you consider it functional?
It's worked for two hundred years.
I mean, so as a global traveler, I certainly would not want to be in any of the countries that have one party systems.
That's the worst.
I mean, there's a very repressive, horrible cultures. And this is a country where, despite everyone fighting with each other and calling each other's names and certain levels of dysfunction, we unlike China, don't have a million people in prison camps because of their religion. We, unlike in Russia, we don't have journalists like you. If you criticize the president, you go to jail for eight years. So, I mean it's still a great country, fantastic country.
When we're looking at some of the trends in the US economy right now, I mean We've been talking about for so long, the shift of preferences from goods to services, and I would think from your perspective, that's probably the last thing you would want to hear. You want people to be buying stuff.
Right, we are good.
All of the three companies I mentioned move goods one way or another. So more goods is better than more services. But for the economy as a whole, that's a normal cycle.
Sometimes it's more goods, sometimes it's more services.
We're not in the best part of the cycle to be in transportation, but there are specific things that each one of those three companies are doing that are independent of the macro to improve the businesses.
When it comes to transportation, what are the biggest like technology technology trends that you think are going to change it. We talk a lot about AI, We talk obviously about self driving, Like, what is it that you think is the most interesting trends that are going to shape it for the next I don't know, fifty years.
Well, on the GXO side, the warehouse business, where we have two hundred and some odd million square feet of warehouse about a thousand warehouses. It's the automation of warehouses and you continuation of it. Right, Yeah, AI powered robots. It's very very sophisticated, futuristic. You can go into a warehouse that's huge and there's no people. That was maybe ten people, whereas ten years ago there would have been.
Hundreds of people there.
So that's a very very big trend on the RXO side, which is a tech ford brokerage platform there. When I first hired Mario Harrick, who stayed behind at XPO as CEO, but then Drew Wilkerson became the CEO of RXO. When I first hired Drew, we had a vision of automating that brokerage business because it was one hundred percent human right today is ninety six percent touched electronically.
I wanted to ask you a little bit, Brad, about how the business is doing now in the wake of the Yellow bankruptcy and what you can tell us you have have you seen on your side? Are you picking up any of their volumes, any of their workers? How's it changed for you?
Not so many of the workers. And that's a real sad part of the Yellow storm.
That was thirty thousand thousand.
Workers lost their job.
That's not a significant number of people. It's a real sad human element to that. From a business point of view, the whole industry benefited those who were who didn't go bankrupt, and you know, they got the volume, so that's tightened up the industry. Pricing is up, volume is up, so it's been a positive thing. And I mentioned earlier the cyber attack on the largest private LTL carrier has also increased more volume coming into the market. So it's good news bad news for certain people and for others.
Companies are benefiting from it.
Just got a couple of minutes left. Jacob's private Equity your next to act? How are you thinking about I know you were at the forum yesterday and you said you it will not be a tech company. You don't understand tech valuations. What kind of company will it be? What are you going to be looking for in terms of investment.
It certainly would be a tech enabled company, because all my companies have used huge amounts of tech, and I think that's very, very important because that's the major trend of everything that gives you your edge. But something I talk about this in the book is what I like to find industries that are large, so hundreds of millions, billions of dollars in size.
I don't like to do small industries.
So you look at the industries I've consolidated, they've been large industries, big swaths of GDP. I like to find industries where there's enough things to buy at reasonable prices so that I can get accretion from buying those.
And I like to buy.
I'd like to be an industry where I can buy things that there's I can grow them like.
Well, I'm not going to tell you how how big is it, how big is the fundraise? How much do you plan be?
Well, I'm going to put in a billion dollars put equity into the next big thing, and then we'll buy some companies, and then I'd like to build it up to a larger company.
I mean that I've been running.
If you look at XPO, rxojis and put them all together, it's over twenty five billion dollars in revenue, and I don't want to go backwards.
How to make a few billion dollars? Just real quickly, your new book, you're going to have to come back and talk more about it when it comes out. I would love to, But what's the premise.
The premise is I looked at I've been doing business for forty four years.
The only job I've had is CEO.
Right, So I made a lot of decisions, and I made a lot of mistakes. So I thought, let me think about what are the stupidest mistakes I did, and let's write those down, and then let's figure out what I learned from each one of those mistakes, because that was important to learnings. And then I said, okay, well, despite these significant and many blunders, we still delivered tens of billions of dollars of shareholder value, which most companies don't do. So why did we do that? What were the things you did right that are idiosyncratic, that were specific to us?
And that's what the book's about.
Promise me you'll come back.
I promise.
All right, Great, I love it, Brad Jacobs, Thank you so much. How to make a few billion dollars? That book is going to be out in January.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube Today.
Some news that have Horizon announcing four winners of its second Climate Resilience Prize, and it's an initiative enacted to help scale proven in market solutions that are focused on mitigating the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities. They award prizes and this Climate Resilience Prize is really part of Citizen Verizon, which is the company's responsible business plan for economic, environmental and social advancement. So let's get to it with a voice who knows about the company's social responsibility initiatives. Here with us is Rose stucky Kirk, chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer at Verizon, on Zoom from Austin, Texas. Rose, nice to have you here with Molly and myself on Bloomberg Business Week. What exactly does corporate social responsibility mean to Verizon in terms of goal specific initiatives and how does it enhance the long term viability of the company.
Yeah, well, first of all, hello to you both, and thank you for having me. You know, Verizons that's set out about ten years ago to create a plan for social, economic, and environmental advancement, and it was all about how do we use Verizon's asset that can acrue revenue to also do amazing things in society to create economic prosperity for all, and we do that across the dimension of digital inclusion, climate protection, and human prosperity.
So, Grose, I wanted to bring in or to mention that one of our colleagues recently wrote a Bloomberg Big take on how corporate America has made a lot of promises to hire more people of color and they actually did it, And this must be an area for focus for you and Verizon underrepresented people. So tell us, how has the diversity composition at your company change following the murder of George Floyd and this renewed focus on race in corporate America.
So for Verizon, it wasn't that we created a renewed focus when George Floyd was murdered. We have always been focused on diversity and inclusion. Verizon has one of the most verse board of directors in the country. In addition to that, we have a diverse leadership team. We have huge commitments that we have made since the beginning of times. When you think about how time rather when you think about how we run our business. So I just want to be very clear that for us, it wasn't as though we had to go and make commitments. We have just continued to live the values that have always been in place at our company and continue to ensure that we have leadership from the top down throughout our one hundred and twenty five thousand employees around the globe that reflects our society and the customers that we serve.
How did any of it, though, change to be pharaohs because of what happened to George Floyd. You guys have had initiatives in place and have been doing it, But I do think it made everybody a little bit more heightened, if you will, Even for those that were enlightened, like you guys at Verizon.
You know, I think for those who suddenly realized that we had a race issue in our country, it certainly made them enlightened. For a company like Verizon who has recognized that there are disparities that exist, there are systemic issues that exist, we recognize that the commitments that we made have to continue no matter what the climate, the social climate, the political climate. We have to remain committed to what I do every day in corporate social responsibility, which is to think about how do we lift people into economic prosperity, how do we address issues in education, issues with small businesses, issues with making sure that people have the skills that they need to compete for the digital jobs of the future. We just believe that we have to stay true to those values no matter what the issues are that we are facing in society. And the three billion dollar commitment that we have put into digital equity over the past several years and the work that I oversee and enabling that is a perfect example of that commitment.
So tell us about that investment. How does that money get spent and how do you and I'm sure there must be some kind of accountability on yourself to make sure that it's actually being spent in a way that accomplishes those goals.
Yeah, absolutely so without digital inclusion work, think about it across four components. How do we do the right work in terms of building out networks and making sure that there is accessibility for all. How do we ensure that people know how to apply the connectivity that we provide for better health care, better education outcomes, better job outcomes. How do we do affordability and ensure that we are providing solutions that are cost effective for individuals? And then how do we do advocacy within our government and our state governments to ensure that we have the right policies and procedures that are in place.
So we think about I'm sorry, no, no, no, please finish.
So when we think about our investment in digital inclusion, it's across those four dimensions. So the programs that we have in place, like Verizon of Innovative Learning, in which we are adopting underserved middle schools across the nation and giving them for free connectivity data plans, lesson plans five G in their schools, building out five G labs unpackeding more than three almost three million students to date with the target of ten million by twenty thirty. Those are the types of programs that we have in place that we measure the outcomes that we're spending money on, that we are seeing the long term implication that has on students learning and how it's changing their trajectory on the types of careers that they want. The program's ten years old, and so we can see students who started in middle school who are now out of college who have pursued careers because of the intervention that we made. So our spend and our accountability is around making sure that we're building out the next work in areas that we are ensuring that people can afford it, that people can learn and apply and they can be a part of the programs that we have in place that enables them to put connectivity into place and in their lives.
Rolla as you have a front row seat to all of this. You guys at Verizon, what do you think is the biggest obstacle when it comes to or continues to kind of fuel the digital divide. Is it just building out the infrastructure component of it, Is it the affordability component? What is it?
You know?
I think it's making sure that we're not only building out the infrastructure and removing any barriers, whether they are betteral barriers or state barriers that are in place to do that, but that we're also making sure people know how to use the technology. The important thing for us is that five G is only important if people understand how to utilize it to solve some of the big problems that we have to use it so that folks have access to connectivity for healthcare as I just share it, or for education purposes. A part of the divide isn't just that you don't have connectivity. You have to also address the divide issues in terms of application. It cannot exist in a space of if you build it, they will calm. It has to be if you build it, people know what to do with it, they know how to use it, and they know how to ensure that equality is in place in the education arena. We cannot exist in space when we have a zip code based education where children one mile down the road has incredible connectivity and experience this with digital technology and children right down the street don't. That is the divide that we have spent more than ten years addressing and the commitment that we are making.
Got to run. But great to get some time with your Roastuckey Kirk, chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer at Verizon On zoom from Austin, Texas. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
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Why do you feel the need that you've got to get somebody all the time. Well, when you get and gotten somebody that got you, and you go get them.
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Block, all right. That is madea Simmons, you know, the individual well, a successful and controversial character and a key part of the empire that is now Tyler Perry. This story is the cover story, the domestic cover story of Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine. And to put it, as the story has done, it's something that Hollywood establishment was very slow to warm too. And that is all the world of Tyler Perry. So let's get to it. The story, as I mentioned, is the domestic cover story for more. Let's bring in Bloomberg News Atlanta, bure Chie, Brett Pulley. He's joining us on zoom in Atlanta. Brett.
Hi, Carol, Hi love this.
Story and it's just fun to kind of go through. First of all, tell us how it came together, because I'm just curious, how many months, around many years have you been looking to maybe tell this story.
Well, you know, it's it's a great story. It's a great question. I have to tell you. I first met and spoke with Tyler Perry and did a story about eighteen nineteen years ago, the Diary his first film with Lionsgate, its very first film, it just come out, Diary of a Mad Black Woman. And you know, it's really it's really interesting to revisit someone from the time there in sort of this this new evolving stage that he was in, and then to visit him years later, and he's a billionaire and you know hosts Megan Markle and Prince Harry at his house. Now that's like they're hide away when they leave the you when they left the UK, And you know, his best friends with Oprah and all these things, and and and and owns a really formidable motion picture studio here in Atlanta. So so it's amazing. And it's a long answer to your question. Now that this story we started pursuing, oh, a good year and a half ago, and again it was kind of in it was kind of an ongoing thing. I mean, it's a subject I've paid attention to. And you know, serendipity doesn't hurt, uh Tyler became interested in buying bee t from Paramount uh three or four months ago and was outspoken about that, uh and that didn't hurt in BT is a property that I have a lot long history. What I've written a book about be et and so all these things kind of play together. And he's a subject who I've been paying attention to for quite some time.
So Brett, you get at this a little bit in the story here how Tyler Perry grew up in New Orleans and then came to Atlanta and realized that this is where he wanted to set up shop and gets a little bit starstruck almost every time he goes down I seventy five and you know, sees his name on billboards directing them to Tyler Perry's studios. Just want to get a sense from you. You know, this isn't the Hollywood Hills here, but you know you've been in Atlanta for quite some time now, you're Atlanta Bureau chief. What is it? How much of it do you see driving through the city there?
Well, I mean you see both things. You see Tyler Perry's presence as you mentioned, you know, I mean you can't you know, go to and from the world's busiest airport, which is in Atlanta, without seeing that those signs off the highway because it's so relatively close to the airport. And so his presence, you know, it is significant in so many ways. Uh. And as is the presence of the entertainment and the motion picture business here. I mean, you know, just over the last ten years or so, since very aggressive tax uh tax benefits have been put in place by the state, a lot of film and television is produced here. You know, all of the practically all of the Marvel stuff from Disney uh is done here. Uh. And a host of you know, a host of programs, television programs and films and uh. And it's it's interesting because it has it has uh pompeded a lot of people who would otherwise be in Hollywood to be here in Atlanta. And that's you know, that's that's you know, talent. UH. But also uh, you know, I've been having conversations with people who are in film finance, and some of the big agencies have put offices here, and so it's uh, you know, it's really becoming uh a Hollywood West. And Tyler Perry is you know, is a large part of that and certainly the largest personification of that.
Tell us about Tyler Perry though, and you know it's interesting as we teased into it. I mean this is, you know, Hollywood sometimes misses trends and waves no doubt about it. And they definitely the Hollywood establishment, as you point out, ignored this individual who wrote, who directed, who produced, who acted? Truly the one man show. What is it that Hollywood missed and why did they miss it? And tell us how Tyler Perry is just turning how we make content upside down?
Yeah, well, I think they missed. What they missed is that, you know, there are a lot of places to look for business and to look for an audience, right, and I think the prism may have been a little too narrow in Hollywood. You know, Tyler recounts some great examples of that. You know, he went to see uh an executive after his He had built an audience with his stage plays around the country, right at all these theaters and cities around the country. People would you know, church groups and stuff loaded up on buses and people went to see these plays. And then he created a great ancillary revenue along, you know, with with merchandise and other sales, and so he had made a fair amount of money before Hollywood had discovered it.
Annual ticket sales and you say, fifty million a million revenue ahead.
So when he finally got a deal in Hollywood with Lionsgate, right, he put up half, they put up half, and he did what has been key to his financial success. He insisted on owning one hundred percent after lions Gate was finished with those distribution rights. So after, however, many years, one hundred percent ownership all of these films goes to Tyler Perry. So you know, as a result, Tyler owns all twenty eight of the films he's made, he owns over eighteen hundred episodes of television. I mean, you talk about a long tail. You know, as distribution platforms change, and we know they keep evolving and changing, who knows what in the world that'll be worth one day?
Right, hey, listen, I want to go to what you started to say that when he went to visit a Paramount Pictures executive looking for a filmed out film deal, and they said, well, black people don't go to the movies. Well he has shown them that they certainly do.
Right, that's for sure. I mean you know, all of the films, every film that he's made, every film that he made for Lionsgate. I'm not sure about the subsequent ones, but you know, the lions shared no pun intended. Of his work has been distributed by Lionsgate. In terms of motion pictures, they all made money, and they're reliable sources of revenue, and he delivers them on time, and he delivers them under budget. And of course these are things in a very predictable, unpredictable business, I should say, such as motion pictures that Hollywood likes, and so he has been a reliable sort of production machine for the motion picture and television business.
So, Brett, you mentioned that Tyler Perry has been trying to extend his commercial reach. He's openly said that he wants to buy bet from Paramount. You also mentioned the story that Tyler Perry's trying to get into streaming. So what's the next big move for him?
And forgive us, Brett, but only got about twenty five seconds.
No, that's okay, No, No, He's certainly interested in Bet and has been interested, and I guess it's a matter of if Paramount puts the property back on the market and he has deals with Netflix and with Amazon, and is in the streaming world and has some projects coming up, uh in that world with some formidable stars such as Carrie Washington and Oprah Winfrey and Susan Sarandon. So uh, he's still on the hunt for the elusive critical success, but certainly uh, sticking very close to to what has made him a tremendously successful guy.
So many great nuggets in this story about how he came to be and just kind of where he's going. Brett, thank you so much, of course, our Bloomberg News Atlanta, be your chief, Brett Pully. His book, by the way, on b E T is called The Billion Dollar Bets, so check that out as well.
The journal.
Now about you, let me drive, No, no, no, honey, please, I'll do.
I want to drive.
It's a question trying. This is the drive to the Globe dot com Tim, we'll buy around together down on Bloomberg Radio.
All right, everybody. The S and P five hundred officially at one point hit over sold territory based on relative strength index. It went below thirty, although it did go just above it again or back above it. I should say today this is the world we live in. I feel like depending on the data flow, depending on the tone the fedspeak, the markets move on it pretty quickly.
You know, it's I think we're still in that good news is bad news, bad news is good news. Hopefully our next guest, another Carol, will shed some light on it for us.
Well, our next guest does say the markets are over sold. Let's get to it. Our Drive to the Closed guest on this Wednesday, Carol Schlife. She's CIO at PIMO Family Office. Back with us on zoom in Minneapolis. Carol, good to have you back. How are you.
To be back?
Well, it's good to have you here. You do say the markets are over sold. You're talking about the equity markets specifically, or bottom markets as well.
The fixed income markets are pretty over sold to that shoot up towards five percent on the ten year yesterday was you know, I get up out of the way and let the knives fall where they may sort of move. So you can make an argument that both markets, emotion has been taking and pushing things to the edges.
So when the one hand you're saying things are over sold, into my ear, that sounds like maybe by the dip, But then you're saying knives are falling, so maybe not so much.
Yeah, I think we've had a balanced approach to risk for a very long period of time, and we think we don't necessarily want to be entirely out of the growth camp. You want to have a leg there because there's some really interesting fiscal stimulus that's putting a floor underneath a lot of things in the economy.
We just talked about that. We just talked about that with Brad Jacobs, who's the executive chair of an XPO, that we can't kind of ignore all that stimulus from policy decisions right that are that's coming into the economy now.
And even when you look at the ADP jobs numbers, the large companies were letting people go, but the mid and small sized companies are doing really well. And I've been spending a lot of time recently talking to our commercial bankers, and these are these guys, are guys and gals are banking the mid size companies. And the primary issue that those companies are having is that activity is so strong they can't get employees. And you saw in the ADP report that mid and small sized companies are still hiring, and so there's a lot of underlying strength that wants to be there. It's a little hairy in terms of they have to have really good clean balance sheets and solid cash blows and patients in accessing the debt markets until we figure out where the detocredit markets, until we figure out where that's going to level off. But on the other hand, you know, there was especially at the beginning of the year, you had tech run away with portfolios. You had a very neurow market up until May, and so there's a lot of nuance to the market here. And it doesn't help that we've got all of what's going on in Washington on top of it.
So nuance meaning what get ready everybody for some more volatility is that.
I think volatility definitely through end of the year because one of the interesting things is we had been calling for soft landing last year all the way through the year, and then when the whole rest of the world seemed to come over to our soft landing camp, that's actually when a lot of the potential headwinds stepped up in terms of consumers. There's a lot of things to watch between here and your end. We'll get some good data as equity investors, in particular with earning starting next week, So a couple of weeks of good data, toy'll be able to purse through from the individual companies and then we'll get into it. Thankfully, we have at least forty five more days of some more government.
I felt like you're counting, yeah, and starting with the jobs of it of course this Friday, and so you were just saying, this is really interesting here that when all of these people started joining the soft landing camp, that's when, ironically the tide started to shift maybe a little bit in the other direction, started to get some of those recession calls creeping back in.
There.
You still feeling confident in the soft landing call.
I think we're saying there's a potential fragility in the market. Things were pretty evenly balanced going in. But we'll be watching really carefully what the consumer does going into the tail end of the year because we're coming into one of the most important holiday selling seasons. Even though there was a lot of activity this summer between Taylor, Swift and Barbie and all of the other still carryover on revenge spending and weddings as far as the eye can see. So it'll be important to watch that. A lot of volatility but we do think a lot of that stuff gets sorted out. People start angering to a new higher neutral rate, if you will, in terms of a more normalized neutral rate of two to three percent, if you will, on top of whatever inflation ends up being, and inflation is moderating pretty nicely. So things are happening the way the FED wants them to. If the Fed can avoid raising again, and we do think there's risk of a policy or if the Fed tries to raise again, because you've actually, if you look at where the tenure's gone in the last couple of weeks, it's like it one or two Fed raises right there.
Hey, one thing I want to ask you, and I'm looking at the headline on our market wrap. At this hour, we've just got about thirteen minutes to go. Stocks are at their best levels of the session, and it's led once again by the Nasdaq, which is up about carol one and a half percent. Here, I've got Google up two point four percent, Amazon's up two percent, Microsoft's up two percent, big tech once again leading the way. Investors when there's a pullback, they come back and buy in, and then you know, there's always the argument that two concentrated you know these names, they've already had their run. How do you see some of the big take and what's the play and what's the call here?
I think the interesting thing is is you've got secular moves going on in terms of the way people are deploying artificial intelligence, and similar to other big technologies, when you had biotechnology first hit the scene, and it was really just a dream in the eighties and early nineties the first couple of times those industry ran, but they've proved to be a real legitimate, sort of game changing industry. And artificial intelligence lots of people have been trying to figure out how to deploy, writing business cases for it for over a decade actually, and we're just getting at the point where it's gaining public more public notice. And so between that and a lot of the stimulus that's been tied up by the government, plans to green the grid, improve our infrastructure, bring manufacturing home or close to home, all of that stuff entails a lot of technology, whether it's artificial intelligence, cybersecurity.
Just last, thank you if you here, Carol, before we let you go, what would you say is your biggest conviction call heading into the your end.
Just got about thirty seconds.
I think the biggest conviction call is probably to stay balanced, to keep a tow in some of the large cap equity stocks, but also not be afraid to sit on a little bit of cash and shorter term treasure is to take advantage of those. So it's to keep a balanced approach. So no matter what the outcome, your portfolio is durable.
All right, Gonna leave it on that note. Hey, Carol, good to catch up with you. Caroshlife. She's chief investment officer of at Beema Family Office. Excuse me joining us on zoom in Minneapolis.
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