Why the Middle East Is Becoming Attractive to International Investors

Published Nov 19, 2024, 12:35 PM

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Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Noor Sweid, Founder of Global Ventures, discusses venture capital investing in the Middle East and Africa. Bloomberg News Tech Features Writer Ellen Huet provides the details of her Businessweek Magazine story Trump’s Anti-Regulation Pitch Is What AI Industry Wants to Hear.
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This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. Carol alerted me of this story earlier today, black Rock receiving a commercial license to operate in Abu Dhabi. It's the latest sign that the asset manager is looking to deepen its ties across the region. Abu Dhabi and Riot are competing with Dubai to be the Middle East main business hub, and for black Rocks CEO Larry Fink, having operations in the two countries makes sense, Carol, get this. Abu Dhabi and riod each control over a trillion dollars in sovereign Well, it's a lot, making them among the biggest pools of capital in the world.

Yeah, it's massive when you get kind of your head around all of this lots of money in the Middle East. We know that SODA's nor swayed. She's found her and managing partner the UAA UAA you Ae, let's try that again. Youae based International, third time, fourth time got UAE based international VC firm Global Eventures. They've got offices all around the region in Dubai, Cairo and Riad. Nor is the only Arab woman in the Middle East running a VC fund. That fund about seven years old, and she is joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio.

Welcome, Welcome, how are you. I'm great, thank you, and thank you for having me. It's good to be here.

It's great to have you here.

I'm going to start with.

The elections here in the United States because there seems to be doesn't matter where you go, somebody has a comment on it. I am curious. Does it impact you in your world at all in terms of investing or what the US is doing?

Not really, I think especially with Trump. We've been here before. We kind of know what that presidency was about last time. And for us, it's you know, it's business, it's venture capital, it's entrepreneurship.

That's where our focus remains.

And so when you talk about that focus, what kinds of opportunities because there is a ton of money flowing into the Middle East overall, and it does feel like they are working very aggressively to reinvent kind of their economy and where growth is going going down the road. So tell us a little bit about that, what you are seeing on that.

So last quarter was the first quarter where we had fifty one percent of venture dollars in the region actually coming from abroad.

So that ecosystem is going very quickly versus domestics.

Domestically, which is usually I mean five years ago it was seventy five percent domestic. Now it's forty nine percent domestic. Domestic meaning regional vcs investing. So we have many of the international vcs looking at the region not just for regional opportunity, but for true innovation, which is different, and you see.

That especially in the UAE.

So in the UA specifically last year, seventy three percent of the GDP was non oil sector. So it's not that the region's trying.

To diver say that again.

The reason I think about that, I remember thirty years ago, forty years ago, I don't know, thirty years ago, like a national geographic and it just talked about how the Middle East was thinking about kind of a non carbon based economy, like they knew things were going to change.

Say that number again.

So seventy three percent of UA GDP last year was non oil. So when you think about what that means, it's not that the regions trying to diversify had diversified or at least the UAE has Saudi's following suit and the next ones, and so it is really an innovation economy and knowledge economy moving towards you know, new sectors rather than just we're stuck in oil. So that correlated with how much international funding is coming in really puts us in a position where all sectors are innovative. Right now, we are leap flogging and some innovations where we haven't had legacy incumbents really you know, take over those sectors in the past.

So are the what are the exciting areas in the economy that you're seeing right now?

So right now, the two most exciting areas that we are focused on are supply chain. So anything that's supply chain technology focused really reinventing supply chain. So even if you think through manufacturing, so where we've historically manufactured things around the world and then ship them, can you manufacture regionally? So we don't have incumbents in manufacturing. We've never had a large manufacturing industry. It's such as all percent of GDP. But if you were to take the world's best technology today, what does that look like. It's added of manufacturing is three D printing. So we have companies in the region, like a MENSA, which are generally just building the best in class technology globally, building the rule books globally to do spare part manufacturing using three D printing for oil and gas and other industries.

And so we start thinking that what's going on? Three haven't we had like talked about three.

D printing so many times, the iterations the site.

Yeah, there was the whole like consumer push. I was at ce S one year where there was like this whole section of like here the you know, plastic injected three D printers that can make whatever you design, and everyone's going to have one of these and they're going to be able to repair their own stuff.

We're not there, but we are so. I mean, even if you take a look at Goodness, some makeup companies the brushes that you can use for blush, those are for our large company for your blush, sorry for your blush, all of our so we all look alive. But ultimately those are large three D printed. So you can take a look at we don't know that it's three D printed, but a lot of those have been three D printed. Now when you take a look at more industrial applications. So, for example, the oil and gas industry has ninety billion dollars sitting in square parts, right, So these are made using raw materials, shipped across the world and then stored in a warehouse draining working capital just in case they're needed. Twenty to thirty percent of each of that warehouse gets thrown.

Away each year for HSU. So now you can do kind of just in time, just.

In time manufacturing, not just in time inventory. So you've completely shifted that and you said, okay, is.

It cost effective? It's very cost effective.

It's cheaper, especially because you're not shipping a half your cost the world. It's more sustainable, you're using new materials. So the reason it's really come forward to the last ten years is the material science has now allowed you to really use materials that are strong alloys, not just natural ones. So as you think through supply chains, it starts with manufacturing. Where are you making stuff? And then how are you shipping it? And how does your last mile logistics look like? Can you use drones to deliver in parts of the world. So Global South generally doesn't have as much infrastructure in terms of roads infrastructure, So why would you ever use diesel trucks that are twenty years old on rickety roads in large, large economies, larger markets. Our geography is when you could use drones to do be to be deliveries. So you think about how do you leap frog supply chains? How do you get to a world where five years from now it's unrecognizable five years ago, and that's where we're investing.

That's what we're seeing that. And then the other sector is really food.

Security, So the whole world has had to push towards food security. The MINA region or the GCC both still import eighty five percent of the food. So if you think about how do we produce food, how do we move towards not just vertical farming as we've known it, but better versions of it. So we look at companies that, for example, reduce energy consumption for vertical farming or indoor farming by up to ninety percent because of the way they treat water, because of the material science to prove these farms, and now they're exporting this technology everywhere in the world. Fifteen different countries in the US are using this technology to reduce energy consumption for indoor farming. So that you can have more sustainable food production. So when you think about food security, when you think about supply chain our part of the world, and MINA and then GCC is still nascent, and that we don't have the legacy incumbents and that industry sorted that you're trying to improve it, you're just trying to invent it. And so with that comes a lot of this innovation, the really quick adoption that allows you to leapfrog and create these new markets.

So the legacy overhang to some of the legacy overhang.

I'm I'm just curious that what the fund looks like right now, given that there are all these opportunities out there. But at the same time, what we've heard over the last few years is that with rates higher across the world, it's been tougher to raise money. You have four hundred million dollars that you manage, how much of that is deployed right now versus how much you know you have on the sidelines.

So we're deploying out of our third fund, which is a two hundred million lowar fund, and we're about a third way into deployment out of that fund. Funds want into a fully deployed. We're exiting them. We just had an exit two weeks ago. That's about twenty eight times money on our post seed position, eight times on our A position. So we're seeing a lot of innovation in the regions.

Start to materialize.

It's our sixth exit for our young firm. To have that many exits behind us is a really good sign of the region's ability to materialize.

Those who are the LPs, where are you getting the money?

So it's half regional, half international.

So we have we can't name them, but it's a lot of international LPs that are looking at the region. A lot of them it's their first time investing in the region. Family offices and institutions, any sovereign wealth funds internationally or regionally. Internationally internationally one pension fund and large financial institutions and regionally regionally both. Yeah, So we were bad the last first fund in the region six years ago. Until then they had invested mainly internationally. We were ADQ Nowlinate's first fund in the region. So we work with all the regional sovereigns in smaller capacities. They are looking at the region to say where can we enable growth because it's for them, it's not just cap it's all economic growth.

They can put their money back into their own economy.

Yeah, it's similar to the pension funds and thennowments in the US how they enabled the venture ecosystem. In Europe, they enabled the venture ecosystem and then they're able to enable economic growth along with financial returns.

What would surprise people that what's going on in the Middle East and Africa right now.

I think it's interesting to witness in some parts of relie So in the UAE, for example, we have a lot of second and third time international founders have come in in the last three years and building new companies there. So they had their first exit in the US maybe or in Europe, and then as they get to their second and third ideas and they want to really address the global South because that's the fastest economic growth over the next ten to twenty years. Is more the global South than the US and Europe. We have the world's youngest population. We're sixty percent under age thirty and so as you have this population starting to grow and build. This is across relast in Africa and Southeast age is also very young.

So I used to have these.

Populations growing the economic growth that is ahead of us is tremendous and so being able to capitalize on that. You have many second and third time founders that are moving back specifically to the UAE or moving to the UAE.

They may not be from the region and building new companies.

Nor what assist is the governments that you over in the Middle East providing to support those founders, whether it's as an incubator or something to kind of there is building this and attract them back.

So there are several incubators accelerators, and there's Hub seventy one in oble w which was Mobile de La funded and founded. There's Area twenty seventy one in the UAE, which in Dubai, which is from the Duay Future Foundation. But I think the government's forward thinking this is the most important thing. So you were talking about AI earlier. We've had a Ministry of AI since twenty seventeen. So when this all happened, it was great, wonderful. How do we incorporate, how do we move forward? How do we enable now able WMGX, which was launched in March earlier this year is one hundred billion dollar AI fund for the UAE to build cutting edge AI. So the government is an enabler, not just a commuters, eccelebrators and funding, but also a thought partner and that let's have that Ministry of AI.

Let's work with the private sector.

To figure out which regulation we can enable that everyone's purposes.

Let's get back to Norsway. She's founder and managing partner at the UAE based international VC firm Global Venture. Still with us here in studio. I want to go through you know, we've been playing around on your website and as you said, there's a lot of different sectors that you are involved in and investing in, agritech, food tech, We've we've touched on some of this supply chains. Walk us through some of maybe your newest investments in some of the different areas you play in, fintech, digital health, mobility, future of work.

All of these are fascinating.

Well, there are all industries that are right for disruption. We started investing in twenty eighteen, and back then our heavy focus was fintech and it was the argument of the region was still eighty five percent on bankd and you were never going.

To have really in the region in the region. Wow.

So with pockets of different maybe Dubai or the UAU is a bit different, but the broader four hundred million people living across me now we're eighty five.

Where was that concentrated though? Was that in like where geographically were.

I mean that's across Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, So just generally.

So not everybody's rich royalty, right, No, that that would be very But I think there's an assumption. I know that's a stupid question, but I just think there's an assumption that the wealth permeates every everywhere.

So I think it's it's interesting.

You know, if you think Europe, you have Sweden, and then you have Greece, and then and and that spread of GDP goes from thirty thousand to ninety thousand dollars across and the region is similar.

But even more extreme, more stream.

So if you think of Syria, if you think of loving On, you're in the few thousand dollars a year gdpaper capita. And then if you think about hot lottery or in the ninety thousand dollars, and if you think about the population dispressment between those, it's not equal, right, So you actually have one hundred million people in Egypt, you have forty million, not even forty moree in Saudi Arabia, right, you have ten less than ten line in the UAE.

So you hear about the.

Ones that are exciting and innovation and leading the way and the largest sovereignal funds in the world. Right, But a lot of people don't live within that realm. So when we talk about unbanked at eighty five percent, you're not talking about a small pocket. You're talking about a lot of rural Saudi most of Egypt, most of Jordan. And so when we brought fintech into the ecosystem alongside the regulators and the governments in twenty eighteen, that number shrunk by about fifteen percent for five years because suddenly people went straight to fintech, right, So no one built banks. Yeah, so you're not going to serve these people. And similarly, exactly so it's a similar thing. So and then healthcare is the same way. So in healthcare, we have one doctor of per thousand people. In the US, you're about four doctors per thousand people. So if you come to the conclusion of you'll never have enough doctors, you'll never have enough hospital. So how do use health tech to give primary access to care. How do you use mobile phones? We have the highest digital penetration the world from abile phones and social media usage, so how do you use those to enable people to have access to healthcare? And then you take that same thinking in philosophy of how do you use technology to leapfrog and provide basic access not just to fintech and health.

Tech, but also to food, to education.

We have the highest percentage of population in school age in the world, so we're at thirty four percent of our population school age in Europe that's about twelve percent. So how do you provide education and it's going to be technology enabled?

Where do those students go when they're done being students? So they stay in the region.

A lot of them stay in the region.

Well, many of them don't have second passports, so they're not going to be able to leave the region.

So when you think.

About it, that's why you have such an emphasis right now in entrepreneurship. So our youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world because.

What is it.

It ranges from twenty five to thirty five percent depending on who you ask, yeah, and the country.

And that's going to concern of the governments.

Then yes, so I think that's part of how do you have these people create jobs, participate in the semi sectors the SEME sector is ninety percent of the GDP in the region, and become productive members small many of enterprise, yes, small me in mentors. So that is the focus and then hence the entrepreneurship push and the innovation push. And over the last five years we've seen really a move from emulation so uber for the region Kareem which then was acquired by Uber, to all the way to innovation, which is how do you sold for supply chains which we talked about earlier, how do you sold for food security and agrotech and really innovate with the IP, with the research and with the ability to scale those companies globally. So in our portfolio of sixty one companies, twelve now have more revenues in Europe in the US than in the region. And when we invested, they were just in the region. And you think about that, and you say that's because that's real innovation. You're thinking outside the box, or you're thinking there is no box. There are no legacy incumbents to compete with, So.

How do we solve You know, I said in teas that we were going to ask about what does it mean when a black Rock moves more aggressively into the region. What does it mean when these global whether it's US based, European based, what have you, move in, you know, to increased ties financial ties in the region.

They see opportunity.

Good for you, bad for you?

What does it need great for us?

It's it's really a move into the region, moving capital, finding opportunity, helping more money around. Right. So venture in the region is two point six billion dollars last year, our entire venture ecosystem, that's it.

That's it.

The world for contact was at two hundred and eighty five billion, right. But we're very pleased because six years ago when I started the firm, we were at four hundred million. So to move from four hundred million to two point six billion is significant. It's still a drop in the bucket. It's like doing venture in the Bay Area in the seventies, right when founders still need a lot of handholding. There was real innovation, there's a lot of government support, and you're trying to move this ecosystem forward and it's still small. That's where we are, So it's really only upside from here, and I think a lot of the international Palazio students see that move to the region, see the economic growth coming in the Global South, and really want to be positioned there to leverage it.

So if you think back to twenty seventeen and the theme, the dominant theme was fintech. Yes, what's the dominant theme twenty twenty four food security?

So either actech, supply chain and then this underlying permeating AI that's actor.

Do you do you spend?

Do you do?

You have to go to San Francisco, to Silicon Valley to see what's going on when it comes to AI.

No, I think where we sit.

We sit in between eastmeats West, so we get to see what's happening in Silicon Valley, we get to see what's happening in Asia in China, and we get to witness both.

What's happening in Asia and China that we need to understand.

So I think that there is AI advancement there. They're doing their own thing. When you think back just to e commerce, right and how Ali Baba and Ali pay and even the concept of a super app which picked up in Asia very different to how all that transpired in the US.

Yeah, we have no super app here.

There is no super app in Asia. You have many super apps in the region. We have right, Yeah, good luck Kareem. Kareem is now which started as an uber for the region and Kareem is now a super app. Right, so uber acquired the right healing side and then the rest as a super app got built to do from payment systems to food delivery to everything you can imagine the sun health. So you start to think about super apps do exist. It's just a different way of using technology to solve problems.

Thirty seconds lefter, how do you think about AI? Like, there's so many conversations. What's the narrative that you actually invest on?

Right now? Again thirty seconds.

AI is an enabler of real companies growth and building solutions that sold for one hundreds of millions of people. So how can AI be leveraged to personalized education.

For everybody that doesn't have access would be a great one.

So it's really the use cases of AI to create solutions that affect lots of people.

Really good stuff.

Thank you so much.

GWAD you're having me dot by. You travel a lot and I know you're far.

From home, but it was really great to have you in studio.

A pleasure to be here. Thank great.

Dare have you Northwaye. She's founder and managing partner. As we said at the UAE based international VC firm Global Ventures.

We kint to talk about AI. I'm getting ready.

We're both getting ready to go out west to the Schwab Impact Conference. I'm going to be moderating a panel that's all about AI and what's kind.

Of going on.

I hope it's not during our.

Show Thursday morning just before.

So okay, good, So you even got.

A demo and everything, like wow, yeah, okay, we're pulling it all out.

Man.

I will be eating breakfast.

He will be eating breakfast.

Well will you do that? But thank you for doing that? You're yeah, it's interesting, like kind of getting an idea for the way the incoming Trump administration is going to handle AI. Many people in the tech industry say we're likely to reach AGI that's artificial general intelligence and it cannot perform humans at most tasks within four years. If they're right, We've just elected our first AGI era president, that would be Donald Trump.

Can I tell you this one of in prepping for this panel that I'm doing. That was one of the first things that came up that said, this is an administration that for the first time has to deal with AI. The first go round during Trump didn't have to deal with it, and certainly the Biden administration, even though there was stuff going on, it's a different thing, and so regulatory how they get involved is important.

So let's see how it's playing out in Silicon Valley. For that, we go to Ellen Hewitt, Bloomberg News tech features writer. She writes for Business about how Trump's anti regulation pitch is what the AI industry wants to hear. Check out her story now on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com Slash BusinessWeek. Ellen, Trump's views haven't been exactly clear when it comes to this type of technology. So I just want to start with you giving us an overview about what we've learned about how the president elect thinks about AI.

Well, that's such a great question and something that people in the AI world. I've been trying to scrutinize given that he will be taking over and as you said, he's likely to be kind of the or it's possible that he'll be sort of the AGI president, you know, the president whose administration oversees rapid advancements in this technology. And based on what Trump has said himself, it's not really that clear. He gave a really interesting interview with Logan Paul a few months ago in which they did talk about AI, and when prompted about super intelligence, Donald Trump called it super duper AI, which I don't.

Think is that a technical term. You hear that around the valley when you're talking about.

Yeah, so super duper AI. That was something that people were laughing about in the industry. He expressed a lot of fear about deep fakes. He had apparently been shown some sort of deep fake in which it looked like he had been endorsing a product, and he was like, did I forget that I had filmed the script? No, it had been, you know, artificially made. But he also expressed a lot of delight about seeing a script that had been written for him, like a speech speechwriter AI that had written a script for a Trump's speech that he thought was really good and so fast and very beautifully written, or something close to that. So it seems like he's having a mix of reactions. And so meanwhile, people have been instead trying to scrutinize and speculate about what he or his administration might be doing once they are in office.

Ellen, what about you know the growing momentum among researchers tech leaders about risks due to AI, including Elon Musk, who is very much in like Flynn, with Donald Trump at least at the moment. Steve Boisniak, You know, I think about Jeffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, who recently talked with our David Weston. You know, there are those that are saying they want AI labs to kind of pause some of the training of new generative AI. How might that influence what we get in terms of oversighter regulatory totally.

So, this is the big question in Silicon Valley right now is should we be moving faster, should we be removing regulation in order to move faster, or should we be advancing more slowly and with more guardrails in order to try to ensure safety. So obviously, the Valley has been talking for a long time about possibilities of existential risk from AI, so catastrophic outcomes in which maybe the AI takes over or wipes out humanity. This has been an ongoing bubbling conversation in the valley has really taken off in the last couple of years. At the same time, some other people focus are more focused on trying to maintain a competitive advantage over other countries such as China, so wanting to advance AI faster and potentially advocating for fewer regulations. So in the valley there's kind of this divide between what we might call the accelerationists or the Eyak like group versus the people that are a little bit more inclined toward AI safety or a alignment. You know, that's an over generalization, but those are pretty, you know, two pretty big camps. And the accelerationists are really celebrating a Trump victory as a win for them. They're basically saying they anticipate that Trump will, you know, take the foot off the brakes if there ever were breaks on in the first place, and really let the technology move faster. And at the same time, there are some question marks you mentioned Elon Musk, he's been kind of a loose cannon. We don't know where he might.

But he has.

I thought was like, hey, this is really scary stuff here. This is why we need to regulate this stuff. The machines and the bots are going to take over the world, the sky is falling type of thing. I thought that's where he was over the last decade.

He's generally been there. But I think, you know, it's it's a little hard to predict what he might choose. But you're right, he did support, for example, SB ten forty seven, which was this AI regulation bill coming out of California that almost got made into law, was vetoed at the last minute by Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. So that was a bill that was generally seen as pretty conservative, something that some major AI labs opposed, and so Elon you know, had supported that. He has said in recent interviews that he would support a regulatory body that would at least be able to see what's going on in some of these advanced AI labs and wring the alarm if it looked like something was going awry. But at the same time, you know, he's been known to make off the cuff decisions related to you know, he has his own AI company. You know, maybe that is something that would push him to reconsider a regular.

At the same time, I mean, the EU is moving ahead right, European officials, and they recently proposed the first ever legal framework on AI. So, I mean, do they ultimately set the tone maybe on this.

Well, it's a good question because I think that sort of you know, global perspective on AI is going to inform how you know a Trump administration thinks about slowing down or speeding up. You know, of course they want to stay competitive with China. They might also be looking at what other countries are doing. But to be honest, you know, Trump has been pretty open about his pledge to repeal the executive order that Joe Biden put in place that would have you know, established that did establish a regulatory framework for AI. Trump administration has been clear that they would like to repeal that. What actually ends up happening still to be seen, but you know they I don't think they are taking other governmental bodies actions as necessarily a reason that they would follow the same suit.

What's the tone in the valley right now? There's some really prominent folks who are very happy the former president was elected once again. What's the overall tone?

Yeah, I wrote a little bit about this for our tech newsletter last week. I think there's a sense that if you're a Trump supporter in the valley, you know, four years ago, eight years ago, you might have been a little bit quieter about that. And now it doesn't seem like you have to be quiet. You are not going to get socially rejected. There's enough Trump you know, outspoken Trump supporters among you know, some big names in the valley. That means that, yeah, being a Trump supporter no longer makes you a pariah. I think that's a real cultural shift that has happened in the last eight years. You know, thinking back to Trump's first victory in twenty sixteen, there were a lot there were, you know, a lot of tech leaders that were very supportive of pushback against some of the president's policies. And I think that's a little quieter this time.

Hey, really quickly, like twenty seconds, the Chips and sid Science Act. Semiconductor is so important to AI, but in general important.

Do we need to be.

Concerned that there's going to be a rollback or anything?

And just really quickly, it seems pretty unlikely.

I know people are sort of worried about it because it's very important, but not seeming likely.

All right, great stuff, So appreciate it Ellen Hwitt. She's Bloomberg News tech features writer. Just a great story. Check her out at bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg

Bloomberg Businessweek

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