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Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO at Stagwell Inc, discusses how businesses navigate the polarizing political environment.
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This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
Hey, another story though that cut our attention over the weekend. It was in the New York Times. It was asking if corporate America is in denial about Donald Trump. The prospect of a second Trump White House is something we talk a lot about on air with leaders running publicly held and private companies, nonprofits, really all kinds of organizations. Tim, The bottom line is whether they are prepared for what could be a tumultuous four years, as we kind of talked about with I think Carl Schlife earlier. But what's coming or maybe it was one of our other guests, in terms of what will the election outcome, what will it mean in terms of regulatory policy, what it means for the financial sector. There's a lot of questions.
Yeah, for one view on this, we welcome back Mark Panies, chairman and CEO of the marketing company stag Well. He's also chairman of the Harris Poll, which is owned by stag Well. Mark joining us from Miami this afternoon. Mark, Good to have you back with us. What are the executives that you talk to, what are they saying to you about the prospect of who wins in November?
I think I think executives mostly are just trying to get through the election season. You know. They don't want any interruption of business. They don't want to get they don't want to get pulled into politics now that politics is going to be in its kind of most phrenetic best or worst, depending upon your perspective, and so I think I think executives are looking to get through the season, let the country decide, and then move forward from there.
The one thing I want to ask you about, and this is the New York Times piece over the weekend, and what they posed in kind of getting ready for the next four years, is that a second Trump administration would be very different, with promises of and this is from the Times, a more populist economic agenda and a more populist governing style to match. I think there are a lot of business leaders some would argue out there, Mark that think it's just going to be maybe a repeat of the four years, So maybe you know, mixed messaging sometime, you know, but that in the end, maybe there will be some policies that come out that are actually good. Maybe, whether it's the push back on China, whether it's on some different things, if you will, if it becomes a more populist government and that there is more control over the federal government, would that be unnerving to a lot of to the folks that you talk to in the corporate community and that you work with.
Look, I think you have to look at really where the policy differences are likely to lie, and you have to sort of get out of the New York Times analysis of what appears on X. I think that in reality, what's going to happen to trade, this is more of an America first policy. Uh And so that means he's going to put more barriers to trade, particularly with China. I think that's clear. Taxes probably going to keep kind of look to re enact the tax cuts and keep the corporate tax down, which is good for corporate investment. Climate change probably going to emphasize, uh, you know, traditional energy sources and undo some of the climate change. So depending upon which side of that you're on, it's probably going to go, you know, in in in that direction. Uh So, I think when you've got to and if you look at immigration, you know, again, depending upon whether or not you're you're looking for lower labor costs or or you know, more restricted immigration, which whichever you think, which might which might give you lower growth and higher labor costs. I mean, I think you have to really look at the policy differences that are likely to be implemented. Forget all the fluff, forget the ad, forget like the speeches, and that's really what is going to affect business in the market one way or the other.
What about a Biden administration, what's the thinking about what a second Biden white House would be? A second term of a Biden White House.
Well, I think Biden said he's going to do more climate change. He's going to move he's going to move EV's up and ev infrastructure up. He wants to raise taxes, you know, on companies and hire making individuals. I think you see, he wants to increase government spending. And again, if you're on the side of if you're a government contractor or you know, good news. If you're concerned about deficits, maybe not as as good news given the size of the budget that they delivered. So again, those are kind of the issues. And of course, you know how the makeup of Congress. We'll also temper you know, both admitted both, you know, regardless of who wins, because we do have checks and balances the makeup of Congress in which people think that the Republicans are likely to take the Senate, Yeah, the Democrats likely to take the House will have a big impact too.
Hey, Mark, you of course people know you for the work that you've done over your career, but including being White House polster to former President Clinton. And I'm just wondering from your perspective what the polling is telling you, Like, if you're analyzing these polls right now. Yeah, the current president has made up some ground in key swing states including Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, but he still trails the former president. What's your analysis of the situation if you had to make a guess, is who's going to win in November?
Oh?
Look, it's a long way to November. And I kind of tell people there are so many events that are still at You look at the polls today and Trump has a lead. What is that lead based on We're replaying the same election that occurred before. Have a tendency to make the same choices over and over again, and so you've got to say what's different. What's different is people's assessment of Biden after three and a half years versus when Biden was a promising candidate, and you'd say, right now in the you know my police, he's up to forty five percent and some other polls forty three. You know, I think if he gets an improving economy, he's got to get his job rating to kind of change the current situation up three or four points. He's got to pitch more to swing voters rather than worry about the base. And having having been there, you know, he's got to focus on improving his job rating. Is not by saying the economy is better, but again by making people comfortable that he's addressing immigration and inflation, which are the major two issues that were not in existence in the previous election. You've got to say to yourself, what's the same and what's different?
Right, So which one would you say.
What's the same? Well, the candidates are the same. The issues immigration and inflation are different, particularly inflation. Abortion is also there is an issue that wasn't there. Climate change really hasn't changed, you know, as an issue. It was there last time, it's still it's there, it's there this time. And I think those are the trade off, and I always think it's going to come down to suburban women at the end of the day.
Interesting. Okay, So, just like in you know, nineteen ninety six, I do wonder what you would advise the current president, what would you advise his team to do from a messaging perspective.
Right now, messaging perspective have been clear, get to do something about the border. The border is a very difficult issue the way that it stands. It's an issue that used to be kind of, you know, twentieth on the list, and then moved up to tenth, and then moved up to fourth or fifth, and now is one or two, depending upon what techn you can use to pull it. And you just can't let that issue sit there again. You're trying to neutralize your weaknesses and play your strengths, you know, and you want to maximize the weaknesses of your opponent. So my sense is he's got to do somewhat more movement on the immigration issue. I don't think what he's doing in terms of moving away from Israel is helping him. I think it's hurting him.
Yeah.
I think the weaker he seems against terrorists, the more his ratings go down on that. And you know, I would not have proposed as big a budget as he did. I think he's doing obviously, he's working to regain some you know, youth votes by going after more student loan deductions. You know, those are great. I mean that's a kind of a smart political move. I think a lot of that is right and mostly, you know, if the economy continues to do better for the next three or four months, that probably will help the president more than anything else.
Yeah, it's interesting. Well, there's a couple issues. Immigration and economy certainly have been certainly key when it comes to polling and what really matters to most Americans. Hey, Mark, good to get some time with you. Mark penn is chairman and chief executive officer of the marketing company Stagwell, also chairman of the Harris Pole, which is owned by Stagwell and Mark. They are joining us in Miami.