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Underlying US inflation accelerated in July though the cost of tariff-exposed goods didn’t rise as much as feared, boosting expectations that Federal Reserve officials will lower interest rates when they meet next month.
The core consumer price index, which excludes the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% from June, the strongest pace since the start of the year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday. That was in line with economists’ forecasts, as was the overall CPI on a monthly basis.
The pickup in the core CPI was fueled by services prices. Excluding energy, they climbed the most since the start of the year. Airfares jumped by the most in three years, while medical care and recreation also advanced. Goods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, rose at a tame pace. Some categories exposed to tariffs, such as toys, sporting goods and household furnishings and supplies, continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace than the prior month. Meantime, used car prices rebounded from a series of declines.
The reacceleration in services costs, after months of more subdued prints, underscores the lingering difficulties in taming inflation. Economists and policymakers have been largely concerned about rising goods prices given President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, but a pickup in consumer demand could fuel services inflation.
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