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President Donald Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time on April 7. Is this a bluff intended to push Tehran to the negotiating table, or a credible threat?

With the deadline nearing, Iran rejected the latest US proposal for a deal to end the war and continued regional strikes. Trump intensified his threats — warning a “civilization will die tonight” — and the US reattacked Iran’s Kharg island. Further escalation appears more likely than negotiations. That’s consistent with our base case that the war will see a sharp escalation followed by a shift to lower-intensity fighting.

Treasuries fell amid mounting oil prices in the run-up to US President Donald Trump’s late-Tuesday deadline for Iran to agree to terms for ending American attacks.

The declines lifted yields by as much as five basis points, with long-maturity tenors rising most. Ten- and 30-year yields reached session highs against an array of conflicting signals about whether Trump’s threats of mass destruction are likely to come to pass.

Oil prices — a principal driver of Treasury yields since the US assault on Iran began Feb. 28 — rose, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures by as much as 4.6% from Monday’s multi-year high close. Yields reached year-to-date highs in late March as energy prices mounted, however they retreated from those levels amid mounting fears the oil shock will hit economic growth.

Today's show features:

• Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst
• Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Portfolio Solutions Group CIO
• Michael Gross, SLR Capital Partners Co-Founder 
• Sastry Durvasula, TIAA Chief Operating, Information and Digital Officer