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This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus gloom O Business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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It's often running the holiday shopping season, Adobe saying US shoppers are going to span up to twelve point four billion online today Cyber Monday, after justin its initial forecast of about twelve billion upward, based on stronger than expected spending on Black Friday and the popularity by now Pay Later features that let choppers stretch their budgets with credit. So let's get more to it and see what she's hearing and seeing when it comes to our own retail checks. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior alis for e Commerce ath Leisia off price retail here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Hello, Hello, were you out in full force over the weekend? I was.

It's often running the holiday shopping season, Adobe saying US shoppers are going to span up to twelve point four billion online today Cyber Monday, after justin its initial forecast of about twelve billion upward, based on stronger than expected spending on Black Friday and the popularity by now Pay Later features that let choppers stretch their budgets with credit. So let's get more to it and see what she's hearing and seeing when it comes to our own retail checks. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior alis for e Commerce ath Leisia off price retail here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Hello, Hello, were you out in full force over the weekend? I was.

I was in stores and I was surprised to see how crowded they were.

I was in stores and I was surprised to see how crowded they were.

It's so funny because I feel like on Black Friday we were all here watching in it and they were showing like empty parking lots. Macy's was closed for Thanksgiving, so there weren't didn't feel like there were those doorbusters where everybody was lining up really really early. But all right, you've seen it firsthand. Tell us what's going on.

It's so funny because I feel like on Black Friday we were all here watching in it and they were showing like empty parking lots. Macy's was closed for Thanksgiving, so there weren't didn't feel like there were those doorbusters where everybody was lining up really really early. But all right, you've seen it firsthand. Tell us what's going on.

So Thursday, stores don't open, and I'm thankful for that meet. I don't know, hellow you there, but on Friday, you know, we were out in stores, the whole team across coast to coast, and they were packed. And they weren't just packed in the morning. They got incrementally busier as the day progress. And I think that's really because you don't have those doorbusters that ended at eleven. Like if you remember a pre pandemic crazy, you know we were watching for are they extending the doorbuster? The deals are on all day, the deals, some of the deals were actually even there before Black Friday. It was for the whole week, and they've continued into Cyber Monday. So I think the retailers are adding deals. The consumers know that the deals are here and they want to shop the deals.

So Thursday, stores don't open, and I'm thankful for that meet. I don't know, hellow you there, but on Friday, you know, we were out in stores, the whole team across coast to coast, and they were packed. And they weren't just packed in the morning. They got incrementally busier as the day progress. And I think that's really because you don't have those doorbusters that ended at eleven. Like if you remember a pre pandemic crazy, you know we were watching for are they extending the doorbuster? The deals are on all day, the deals, some of the deals were actually even there before Black Friday. It was for the whole week, and they've continued into Cyber Monday. So I think the retailers are adding deals. The consumers know that the deals are here and they want to shop the deals.

Well, with that, how do deals change? I know that when I went shopping on Prime Day, that was my big focus, and it seems like the exact same deals are on Amazon right now that I saw last month.

Well, with that, how do deals change? I know that when I went shopping on Prime Day, that was my big focus, and it seems like the exact same deals are on Amazon right now that I saw last month.

Yeah, I mean that's the whole point, right. They want to bring you the deal, try to get you to shop earlier, and if you didn't get a chance to catch the deal, you can come now to get them. But I will tell you that these deals exist on these key shopping days, so they do tend to go away. Like there were deals that I saw on Friday that I couldn't get on Saturday, and there were deals that I saw on Black Friday that are the same today, so it really varies by retailer. In fact, some have added more deals, like Vans, for example, they're forty percent off site wide today and in the stores on Friday it was thirty percent off apparel and buy one, get one half off on the footwear. So it really depends on the retailer.

Yeah, I mean that's the whole point, right. They want to bring you the deal, try to get you to shop earlier, and if you didn't get a chance to catch the deal, you can come now to get them. But I will tell you that these deals exist on these key shopping days, so they do tend to go away. Like there were deals that I saw on Friday that I couldn't get on Saturday, and there were deals that I saw on Black Friday that are the same today, so it really varies by retailer. In fact, some have added more deals, like Vans, for example, they're forty percent off site wide today and in the stores on Friday it was thirty percent off apparel and buy one, get one half off on the footwear. So it really depends on the retailer.

What does it say that deals are back?

What does it say that deals are back?

Deals are back?

Deals are back?

But when did they ever really really go away?

But when did they ever really really go away?

They they've ebbed and flowed, and even though they're back, I would tell you that the deals are overall probably comparable.

They they've ebbed and flowed, and even though they're back, I would tell you that the deals are overall probably comparable.

To last year.

To last year.

Okay, they're not that much deeper, but this is probably the best that you'll get given the inventory position that we're in. Remember we were way over inventoried earlier this year, and retailers have really brought that level down so they don't have to discount as aggressively, but they still do have to offer discounts.

Okay, they're not that much deeper, but this is probably the best that you'll get given the inventory position that we're in. Remember we were way over inventoried earlier this year, and retailers have really brought that level down so they don't have to discount as aggressively, but they still do have to offer discounts.

Let's talk about buy now, pay later, because is that just a big trend for big ticket items? Is that smaller like you mentioned Vans. If I'm buying a forty dollars pair of shoes, am I spreading that out over six months? Or is it really buy now, pay later focused on your TVs, your Xbox or PlayStations, bigger tickets.

Let's talk about buy now, pay later, because is that just a big trend for big ticket items? Is that smaller like you mentioned Vans. If I'm buying a forty dollars pair of shoes, am I spreading that out over six months? Or is it really buy now, pay later focused on your TVs, your Xbox or PlayStations, bigger tickets.

It's everything. I mean, the retailers that have buy now Pay Later, are some of the retailers with like twenty thirty dollars tickets, whether it's some of the apparel retailers. Even Amazon has buy now Pay Later this year, which is new. So it doesn't matter what the ticket prices. It just matters on your credit to the extent, how much buy now pay Later do you want to take on, because you do have to make those payments within two months of time, otherwise you start there for interest.

It's everything. I mean, the retailers that have buy now Pay Later, are some of the retailers with like twenty thirty dollars tickets, whether it's some of the apparel retailers. Even Amazon has buy now Pay Later this year, which is new. So it doesn't matter what the ticket prices. It just matters on your credit to the extent, how much buy now pay Later do you want to take on, because you do have to make those payments within two months of time, otherwise you start there for interest.

It's interesting. I feel like growing up it was like lay away. You would put things on lay away and you can make payments, but you had to like finish paying it off by a certain amount. What does it say though, Does it say the consumer is stressed that if we're seeing a lot more of buy now Pay Later, I mean, are we seeing that number go up incrementally?

It's interesting. I feel like growing up it was like lay away. You would put things on lay away and you can make payments, but you had to like finish paying it off by a certain amount. What does it say though, Does it say the consumer is stressed that if we're seeing a lot more of buy now Pay Later, I mean, are we seeing that number go up incrementally?

We are seeing that number go up. In fact, I have the number right in front of me. Buy Now pay Later from November first through the twenty six was up fourteen percent year every year, and that's Adobe's numbers. And on Cyber Monday today it's expected to be up more than eighteen percent. So people are using BNPL to make their purchases, but people are also traveling, and.

We are seeing that number go up. In fact, I have the number right in front of me. Buy Now pay Later from November first through the twenty six was up fourteen percent year every year, and that's Adobe's numbers. And on Cyber Monday today it's expected to be up more than eighteen percent. So people are using BNPL to make their purchases, but people are also traveling, and.

You can do that with travel too.

You can do that with travel too.

Yeah, but if you're not making choices where you're not having to give up something, are you really under that much strain? Is what I question?

Yeah, but if you're not making choices where you're not having to give up something, are you really under that much strain? Is what I question?

Well, how much of that jump in use of buy Now, Pay Later is that just people knowing that it's an option, Because I feel like a year ago, I would go into a store and they would throw it out there as an idea, but I wouldn't even consider it FIRSUS. Now it's everywhere.

Well, how much of that jump in use of buy Now, Pay Later is that just people knowing that it's an option, Because I feel like a year ago, I would go into a store and they would throw it out there as an idea, but I wouldn't even consider it FIRSUS. Now it's everywhere.

Yeah, I think they know so definitely the knowing that it exists helps. But people have also been using it, right, so they're getting more comfortable with how it works and they're able to use it, and the teenagers are using it. I mean, if you ask me who was at the malls on Friday, it was the busiest section in the mall was near Abercrombie Hollister, Victoria's Secrets, Aphora. I mean, those were the stories that were mobbed.

Yeah, I think they know so definitely the knowing that it exists helps. But people have also been using it, right, so they're getting more comfortable with how it works and they're able to use it, and the teenagers are using it. I mean, if you ask me who was at the malls on Friday, it was the busiest section in the mall was near Abercrombie Hollister, Victoria's Secrets, Aphora. I mean, those were the stories that were mobbed.

Well, what's interesting too is in terms of buy now, pay let later, is it cheaper to do that than throw something on a credit card, like I always hear somebody talking maybe it was on TV earlier that right now, credit cards, if you're doing anything in credit card, it's like the highest it's ever been in terms of So I do wonder if there's some thinking of like, all right, I can't pay it all right now, but I can over the next couple of months, rather than putting on a credit card and you start paying right away.

Well, what's interesting too is in terms of buy now, pay let later, is it cheaper to do that than throw something on a credit card, like I always hear somebody talking maybe it was on TV earlier that right now, credit cards, if you're doing anything in credit card, it's like the highest it's ever been in terms of So I do wonder if there's some thinking of like, all right, I can't pay it all right now, but I can over the next couple of months, rather than putting on a credit card and you start paying right away.

Well, I guess it depends if you are not looking to pay off your credit card statement at the end of the month, yes, BNPL is a better option, but if you are looking to pay it off, I'd get my credit card points in yeah.

Well, I guess it depends if you are not looking to pay off your credit card statement at the end of the month, yes, BNPL is a better option, but if you are looking to pay it off, I'd get my credit card points in yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Who's winning right now based on cyber Monday looking at the data that you're seeing, are their individual companies, individual stores that are seeing a larger kind of pull forward and demand or jump intomand.

Who's winning right now based on cyber Monday looking at the data that you're seeing, are their individual companies, individual stores that are seeing a larger kind of pull forward and demand or jump intomand.

So it's hard to say who will win because we don't have data. But what I can tell you is Amazon has clearly been a leader in online sales, and cyber Monday is about online shopping, so we expect them to really take their share of the fair pie. Now, if you think about the department stores, the Macy's, the Bloomingdale's and nord Storm's. You know, they've been losing share, but this is the time when people want to shop department stores, so they're probably pulling in some more share. And the retailers with the deals, if you have the deal, can suomers are coming because they have been putting a list together and now they're ready to execute on that list.

So it's hard to say who will win because we don't have data. But what I can tell you is Amazon has clearly been a leader in online sales, and cyber Monday is about online shopping, so we expect them to really take their share of the fair pie. Now, if you think about the department stores, the Macy's, the Bloomingdale's and nord Storm's. You know, they've been losing share, but this is the time when people want to shop department stores, so they're probably pulling in some more share. And the retailers with the deals, if you have the deal, can suomers are coming because they have been putting a list together and now they're ready to execute on that list.

When were you surprised by what you've been saying.

When were you surprised by what you've been saying.

I am, actually, you know, I didn't expect stores to be as busy as they were. I went into the mall thinking there won't be that many people out. I'll probably be busy early on and then maybe later in the evening, but kind of you know, soften up during the day. That wasn't the case, and people weren't just window shopping. They had bags in their hands. So there were lines at some of these stores wrapped around the store, which was encouraging to see because the same deals were available online, so you didn't have to go to the store to get the deal. I mean, I walked in stores where I looked at what I wanted and I placed the order on my mobile phone because I didn't want to carry the bag, so it was just interesting to see that the stores stayed pretty full throughout the day. I mean, I was surprised to see that.

I am, actually, you know, I didn't expect stores to be as busy as they were. I went into the mall thinking there won't be that many people out. I'll probably be busy early on and then maybe later in the evening, but kind of you know, soften up during the day. That wasn't the case, and people weren't just window shopping. They had bags in their hands. So there were lines at some of these stores wrapped around the store, which was encouraging to see because the same deals were available online, so you didn't have to go to the store to get the deal. I mean, I walked in stores where I looked at what I wanted and I placed the order on my mobile phone because I didn't want to carry the bag, so it was just interesting to see that the stores stayed pretty full throughout the day. I mean, I was surprised to see that.

Yeah, and how does this continue to play out through the rest of the week, through December into holidays.

Yeah, and how does this continue to play out through the rest of the week, through December into holidays.

I think that's a wait and watch situation. So did consumers really just make that list and go full out this weekend to do their shopping and are they done?

I think that's a wait and watch situation. So did consumers really just make that list and go full out this weekend to do their shopping and are they done?

So?

So?

How much of your shopping is done and how much is yet to remain is a question.

How much of your shopping is done and how much is yet to remain is a question.

How many people are using Cyber Monday and Black Friday to buy for others versus themselves because I don't even know what I'm getting people for Christmas or the holidays yet, but I'm more than happy to go spend it on my credit.

How many people are using Cyber Monday and Black Friday to buy for others versus themselves because I don't even know what I'm getting people for Christmas or the holidays yet, but I'm more than happy to go spend it on my credit.

Card, which you did.

Card, which you did.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

I think it's always been you know, it's not everyone, of course, it's a mixed batch. And there will be those people that will be going out the weekend before Christmas because they forgot to get a gift, or something didn't show up, or someone wants something different on their list today. So that'll happen. But a Cyber Monday, Black Friday is a time when you shop for gifts, and you shop for yourself because you have the deals. Now, the next two weeks you may see a lull, but that's normal, right, and retailers will come back to you with more deals getting closer to Christmas. But then as you near Christmas, the deals will likely go away because at that time you're crunched to buy. And this year we have a Christmas falling on a Monday, which means you have a full weekend to shut it all done.

I think it's always been you know, it's not everyone, of course, it's a mixed batch. And there will be those people that will be going out the weekend before Christmas because they forgot to get a gift, or something didn't show up, or someone wants something different on their list today. So that'll happen. But a Cyber Monday, Black Friday is a time when you shop for gifts, and you shop for yourself because you have the deals. Now, the next two weeks you may see a lull, but that's normal, right, and retailers will come back to you with more deals getting closer to Christmas. But then as you near Christmas, the deals will likely go away because at that time you're crunched to buy. And this year we have a Christmas falling on a Monday, which means you have a full weekend to shut it all done.

Yes, I was surprised walking through World Trade on my way home, and I guess it was around five thirty, six o'clock, six thirty, and it was packed and you write, people had bags and I don't think it was just tourists or anything like that, but it felt like it was a pretty pretty kind of busy retail trade. Put him thank you so much. Looking forward to your research over the next few weeks to see whether or not this all continues. Putim Goil, of course, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analysts for e commerce, ath, leisure, off price Retail. Joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

Yes, I was surprised walking through World Trade on my way home, and I guess it was around five thirty, six o'clock, six thirty, and it was packed and you write, people had bags and I don't think it was just tourists or anything like that, but it felt like it was a pretty pretty kind of busy retail trade. Put him thank you so much. Looking forward to your research over the next few weeks to see whether or not this all continues. Putim Goil, of course, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analysts for e commerce, ath, leisure, off price Retail. Joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Not quiet. When it comes to the conflict in the Middle East, we talked about Elon Musk. He's been over there in Israel saying he'd like to help rebuild Gaza after the war in a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo. He's been doing this on his social media platform X. Meantime, more importantly, perhaps or no doubt, Israel and Hamasa green to extend a ceasefire which was initially due to end tomorrow morning in that war, following some tense negotiations over the release of more hostages held by the militant group in Gaza. So let's get to it with some analysis. We welcome Aril Cohen, a non resident Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center. Member of the Council of Foreign Relations, he focuses on international security, energy policy, also with particular expertise in Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East. He's also the founding principle of International Market Analysis. It's a boutique political risk advisory firm and for over twenty years he served as a senior Research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies in International energy policy at the Heritage Foundation. He is on Zoom in Washington, doctor Cohen, Nice to have you here with Bally in myself. The developments today, the significance of this extension, how do you see it?

Not quiet. When it comes to the conflict in the Middle East, we talked about Elon Musk. He's been over there in Israel saying he'd like to help rebuild Gaza after the war in a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo. He's been doing this on his social media platform X. Meantime, more importantly, perhaps or no doubt, Israel and Hamasa green to extend a ceasefire which was initially due to end tomorrow morning in that war, following some tense negotiations over the release of more hostages held by the militant group in Gaza. So let's get to it with some analysis. We welcome Aril Cohen, a non resident Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center. Member of the Council of Foreign Relations, he focuses on international security, energy policy, also with particular expertise in Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East. He's also the founding principle of International Market Analysis. It's a boutique political risk advisory firm and for over twenty years he served as a senior Research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies in International energy policy at the Heritage Foundation. He is on Zoom in Washington, doctor Cohen, Nice to have you here with Bally in myself. The developments today, the significance of this extension, how do you see it?

Well, the israellies are driven by domestic political pressure to get as many hostage is back home as they possibly can. There is an old saying in the Holy Books that one who saves one human life as if he's saved or she saved the whole world. But the question is when you saved that one life or two or fifty, and that extends the lifeline to the worst terrorist organization in the Middle East right now, maybe with the exception of Kibola, and prepares them for more rocket attacks, more kidnappings, and more torture and murder. Are you really saving that life? So?

Well, the israellies are driven by domestic political pressure to get as many hostage is back home as they possibly can. There is an old saying in the Holy Books that one who saves one human life as if he's saved or she saved the whole world. But the question is when you saved that one life or two or fifty, and that extends the lifeline to the worst terrorist organization in the Middle East right now, maybe with the exception of Kibola, and prepares them for more rocket attacks, more kidnappings, and more torture and murder. Are you really saving that life? So?

Do you think it is wrong to extend this truth?

Do you think it is wrong to extend this truth?

No? I do not think so, and I don't want to second guest people whose political jobs are on the line. I think Natanyao is a goner politically after this disaster of October seventh, I do not envy it wouldn't to be in the shoes of the Israeli Chief of Military Staff, Israeli Head of the Army Staff, the chief of Staff of the military and other people who will be under judicial committee review and investigation. But having said that, the main goal for Israel, as was articulated by Nathan Yao with the support of the United States, is to eradicate CAAMAS as long as CAMAS is destroyed and eradicated, because the people of Gaza, the Palestinians, both in the West Bank and Gaza, deserve better than the murderous cult that raped and tortured and killed children, women and old people on the seventh of October.

No? I do not think so, and I don't want to second guest people whose political jobs are on the line. I think Natanyao is a goner politically after this disaster of October seventh, I do not envy it wouldn't to be in the shoes of the Israeli Chief of Military Staff, Israeli Head of the Army Staff, the chief of Staff of the military and other people who will be under judicial committee review and investigation. But having said that, the main goal for Israel, as was articulated by Nathan Yao with the support of the United States, is to eradicate CAAMAS as long as CAMAS is destroyed and eradicated, because the people of Gaza, the Palestinians, both in the West Bank and Gaza, deserve better than the murderous cult that raped and tortured and killed children, women and old people on the seventh of October.

But we are also our understanding is that it's not just TAMAS holding hostages. So it becomes much more complicated, as you know. So what do we need to understand about that If it's not just Hamas, we.

But we are also our understanding is that it's not just TAMAS holding hostages. So it becomes much more complicated, as you know. So what do we need to understand about that If it's not just Hamas, we.

Need to understand that the terrorist organizations in Gaza and sometimes in the West Bank treat hostages, or we start with ISIS by the way, as well, they treat hostages as a commodity. They buy them and sell them their criminal gangs and clans that take these hostages and resell them, and it's a tragedy for these people. Absolutely, it demoralizes the Israeli population. People have nightmares, people have essentially PTSD, hundreds of thousands and millions of them. Having said that, it's a job of the Israeli security to track down these hostages and those who hold them and put as much pressure as possible, negotiate if you can, or put other pressure if you need to, in order to bring the hostages back.

Need to understand that the terrorist organizations in Gaza and sometimes in the West Bank treat hostages, or we start with ISIS by the way, as well, they treat hostages as a commodity. They buy them and sell them their criminal gangs and clans that take these hostages and resell them, and it's a tragedy for these people. Absolutely, it demoralizes the Israeli population. People have nightmares, people have essentially PTSD, hundreds of thousands and millions of them. Having said that, it's a job of the Israeli security to track down these hostages and those who hold them and put as much pressure as possible, negotiate if you can, or put other pressure if you need to, in order to bring the hostages back.

Doc con what's next? Do we see the truth continue to be extended every few days? Kind of what can help end the conflict or what happens on the path to ending the conflict.

Doc con what's next? Do we see the truth continue to be extended every few days? Kind of what can help end the conflict or what happens on the path to ending the conflict.

The number of hostages left, I think is around two hundred, and they agreed that in the exchanges they're good to release ten, so ten hostages a day, two hundred, so it's twenty days, three weeks after that, it will be the decision of the Israelis whether to continue the military action. We see already that the United States is undermining its own credibility by grabbing Israel by the hand and saying, oh, you cannot do this, you cannot do that. We are undermining our credibility vs. Taiwan vsv Ukraine and others.

The number of hostages left, I think is around two hundred, and they agreed that in the exchanges they're good to release ten, so ten hostages a day, two hundred, so it's twenty days, three weeks after that, it will be the decision of the Israelis whether to continue the military action. We see already that the United States is undermining its own credibility by grabbing Israel by the hand and saying, oh, you cannot do this, you cannot do that. We are undermining our credibility vs. Taiwan vsv Ukraine and others.

Well, just for a little clarification, we are seeing to make stick pressure here in the US. Senator Chris Murphy of the state of Connecticut has said that the US should consider touching strings to future aid to Israel and its compliance with international humanitarian law. So that's what you're addressing at this point, and this is and so this is you think that doesn't make sense.

Well, just for a little clarification, we are seeing to make stick pressure here in the US. Senator Chris Murphy of the state of Connecticut has said that the US should consider touching strings to future aid to Israel and its compliance with international humanitarian law. So that's what you're addressing at this point, and this is and so this is you think that doesn't make sense.

I think that job one as was agreed between the Israeli government, democratically elected Israeli government. And I'm not a fan of Nathan Yao. Please let let be very clear. I think the man utterly failed. Even before the attack of October seventh, he split the country, he split the people. He tried for a power grab that should never have been allowed. But right now Job one is destroying Hamas. And if Chris Murphy, whom I respect, I testified more than once before him he is a decent man, but he is either misled or playing politics. This is not the time to have an academic discussion about humanitarian international law. For a simple reason, we did not have strings attached when our military went to Muscle, when women went to Raka, and when we went to Fallujah. We cannot fight terrorism and these are murderous, murderous people. We cannot fight them with two hands behind our back.

I think that job one as was agreed between the Israeli government, democratically elected Israeli government. And I'm not a fan of Nathan Yao. Please let let be very clear. I think the man utterly failed. Even before the attack of October seventh, he split the country, he split the people. He tried for a power grab that should never have been allowed. But right now Job one is destroying Hamas. And if Chris Murphy, whom I respect, I testified more than once before him he is a decent man, but he is either misled or playing politics. This is not the time to have an academic discussion about humanitarian international law. For a simple reason, we did not have strings attached when our military went to Muscle, when women went to Raka, and when we went to Fallujah. We cannot fight terrorism and these are murderous, murderous people. We cannot fight them with two hands behind our back.

And one of the things that's making headlines is Elon Musk making a trip to Israel. How does that, in your view, just given what he brings to the table with Starlink, impact the path forward and how this conflict can continue to evolve.

And one of the things that's making headlines is Elon Musk making a trip to Israel. How does that, in your view, just given what he brings to the table with Starlink, impact the path forward and how this conflict can continue to evolve.

Elon Musk has an anti semitism problem, not himself hopefully, but the x Twitter. For example, according to cyber Well Monitoring, monitoring organization that monitors Jew hatred online, the reports of anti semitism in Twitter, only ten percent of antisemitic tweets are removed, whereas Meta and even TikTok has ninety one and ninety eight removal rates, respectively. So until Elon Musk demonstrates conclusively that he keeps jew haters out, and he is trying, because just today the trending whatever it's called, the trending message the halfback hitler was right, was removed by Twitter, and thank him for that, But he needs to understand that to be a credible social platform, he cannot and should not allow how racism and hate on his platform.

Elon Musk has an anti semitism problem, not himself hopefully, but the x Twitter. For example, according to cyber Well Monitoring, monitoring organization that monitors Jew hatred online, the reports of anti semitism in Twitter, only ten percent of antisemitic tweets are removed, whereas Meta and even TikTok has ninety one and ninety eight removal rates, respectively. So until Elon Musk demonstrates conclusively that he keeps jew haters out, and he is trying, because just today the trending whatever it's called, the trending message the halfback hitler was right, was removed by Twitter, and thank him for that, But he needs to understand that to be a credible social platform, he cannot and should not allow how racism and hate on his platform.

And many would agree no doubt about that, Doctor Cohen, thank you so much. Doctor Errel Cohen, a non resident Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center, and as we said, also the founding partner of principal excuse me, of International Market Analysis, which is a political risk advisory. From joining us on Zoom in Washington, DC.

And many would agree no doubt about that, Doctor Cohen, thank you so much. Doctor Errel Cohen, a non resident Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center, and as we said, also the founding partner of principal excuse me, of International Market Analysis, which is a political risk advisory. From joining us on Zoom in Washington, DC.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

We wanted to take a look at the environment for startups when it comes to the venture capital market. It's been pretty tough. Nearly one in five investments was a down round. We're talking about recent fundraises in terms of dollars raised. Total VC funding has now declined in six of the past seven courses coming from Karda, which try this stuff. So let's head to Stockholm, Sweden, where we find on Zoom Unconventional Ventures co founder and general partner Nurah Baby Naurah, nice to have you here. With Bailey and myself, we said it's been a slow IPO market and they're not necessarily doing well once they go public. Talk to us about the VC market and what you guys have been seeing.

We wanted to take a look at the environment for startups when it comes to the venture capital market. It's been pretty tough. Nearly one in five investments was a down round. We're talking about recent fundraises in terms of dollars raised. Total VC funding has now declined in six of the past seven courses coming from Karda, which try this stuff. So let's head to Stockholm, Sweden, where we find on Zoom Unconventional Ventures co founder and general partner Nurah Baby Naurah, nice to have you here. With Bailey and myself, we said it's been a slow IPO market and they're not necessarily doing well once they go public. Talk to us about the VC market and what you guys have been seeing.

Thank you so much for having me, And yes, it's definitely slow. But when it comes to progress in terms of investing in the best business businesses, in terms of also acknowledging the best type of founders behind the solutions, we're really not seeing any progress. So I'm the co founder and general partner of Unconventional Ventures, which is considered to be Europe's first impact fund with a diversity lens, and we've been doing these funding gap reports for the last five years, looking into what the ecosystem has been looking at, not only for the last twenty years, but particularly since twenty seventeen, where we see incredible changes happening in the ecosystem, and unfortunately we keep coming back to this same numbers over and over again. Funding for all female founding teams are literally on a slippery slow slate in terms of the numbers, sticking at around one percent in the Nordics, and that's being considered one of the most gender ecoregions in the world. Now, if we look at Northern Europe, that number shifts between an approximately around two percent, even that minimizing down to zero point nine percent in some markets. And if we compare to global numbers, we're looking at the typical two percent that is definitely not changing. And what is really astonishing at this year's report is that when we look at mixed teams, because in general we see a lot of excuses being made for well, you know, when female founders are part of a mixed team, we do know that they get funded. But when we look at the North and Europe as a market, what we see as that is actually even becoming smaller in terms of share of capital versus percentage of realms. And then all in all, when we look at the amounts, we see that even coming down as little as four point four percent, so.

Thank you so much for having me, And yes, it's definitely slow. But when it comes to progress in terms of investing in the best business businesses, in terms of also acknowledging the best type of founders behind the solutions, we're really not seeing any progress. So I'm the co founder and general partner of Unconventional Ventures, which is considered to be Europe's first impact fund with a diversity lens, and we've been doing these funding gap reports for the last five years, looking into what the ecosystem has been looking at, not only for the last twenty years, but particularly since twenty seventeen, where we see incredible changes happening in the ecosystem, and unfortunately we keep coming back to this same numbers over and over again. Funding for all female founding teams are literally on a slippery slow slate in terms of the numbers, sticking at around one percent in the Nordics, and that's being considered one of the most gender ecoregions in the world. Now, if we look at Northern Europe, that number shifts between an approximately around two percent, even that minimizing down to zero point nine percent in some markets. And if we compare to global numbers, we're looking at the typical two percent that is definitely not changing. And what is really astonishing at this year's report is that when we look at mixed teams, because in general we see a lot of excuses being made for well, you know, when female founders are part of a mixed team, we do know that they get funded. But when we look at the North and Europe as a market, what we see as that is actually even becoming smaller in terms of share of capital versus percentage of realms. And then all in all, when we look at the amounts, we see that even coming down as little as four point four percent, so.

Net net in terms of and you guys, sounds like you looked at Northern Europe in terms of the survey base, if you will, that when it comes to female teams, they're getting nothing. When it comes to VC funding, it really isn't changing much. And even if you have a mixed team that includes someone like a female founder of female individual it's still not great and it's actually coming down. Why is it not getting better?

Net net in terms of and you guys, sounds like you looked at Northern Europe in terms of the survey base, if you will, that when it comes to female teams, they're getting nothing. When it comes to VC funding, it really isn't changing much. And even if you have a mixed team that includes someone like a female founder of female individual it's still not great and it's actually coming down. Why is it not getting better?

Well, I wish that we were talking about, you know, why are we seeing too little progress? The problem is we're not seeing any progress. And I think we come down to the same kind of conclusion over and over again. Representation matters, and if you do not think that it matters, then you're probably well represented. So I think we need to go back and who are the checkwriters? Because we do know that there is a very clear correlation between who writes the check and who receives the check. And when it comes to this incident makers being more diverse meeting beyond white men, that is not changing at all. And even that being we see more women coming into the financial industry. Something is also happening at senior levels because more and more women are actually leaving senior positions in the last couple of years as well.

Well, I wish that we were talking about, you know, why are we seeing too little progress? The problem is we're not seeing any progress. And I think we come down to the same kind of conclusion over and over again. Representation matters, and if you do not think that it matters, then you're probably well represented. So I think we need to go back and who are the checkwriters? Because we do know that there is a very clear correlation between who writes the check and who receives the check. And when it comes to this incident makers being more diverse meeting beyond white men, that is not changing at all. And even that being we see more women coming into the financial industry. Something is also happening at senior levels because more and more women are actually leaving senior positions in the last couple of years as well.

Nora, How does this play out though in a year that has been pretty difficult for VC investors and going into twenty twenty four where everything we talk about is how difficult it is for anyone to get funding, let alone investors in management teams that aren't well known and aren't, as you mentioned, looking like that, don't look like the investors at their courting.

Nora, How does this play out though in a year that has been pretty difficult for VC investors and going into twenty twenty four where everything we talk about is how difficult it is for anyone to get funding, let alone investors in management teams that aren't well known and aren't, as you mentioned, looking like that, don't look like the investors at their courting.

Well, I think we need to create this bottom line, meaning if we're really about making great business decisions, then we're clearly and not making the best kind of investments because they are secured and biased towards a particular community and group. With that being said, when we talk about what type of founders are getting funded, what we need to also acknowledge what kind of problems are they really solving? Is it nice too or is there a need to? And if we look at the global challenges now really you know, accelerating in the unpersistent time and pace, what we know with that is that we're really not targeting depth of the problems that need and then going back to representation, that's why we need to fund more diverse founders insights to the polem.

Well, I think we need to create this bottom line, meaning if we're really about making great business decisions, then we're clearly and not making the best kind of investments because they are secured and biased towards a particular community and group. With that being said, when we talk about what type of founders are getting funded, what we need to also acknowledge what kind of problems are they really solving? Is it nice too or is there a need to? And if we look at the global challenges now really you know, accelerating in the unpersistent time and pace, what we know with that is that we're really not targeting depth of the problems that need and then going back to representation, that's why we need to fund more diverse founders insights to the polem.

We only have about a minute left here forgive me, but I could go back two years, I could go back five years, and I would have the exact same conversation. So I'm trying to understand why the needle isn't moving. What's the problem? Is it the pipeline? Because we've also done the stories about female led VC firms where they don't aren't necessarily more inclined to give my two women you know backed or women created businesses. So I'm not quite sure what's the problem and only got about forty seconds left here.

We only have about a minute left here forgive me, but I could go back two years, I could go back five years, and I would have the exact same conversation. So I'm trying to understand why the needle isn't moving. What's the problem? Is it the pipeline? Because we've also done the stories about female led VC firms where they don't aren't necessarily more inclined to give my two women you know backed or women created businesses. So I'm not quite sure what's the problem and only got about forty seconds left here.

Why isn't this sorta chicken?

Why isn't this sorta chicken?

I would say venture capitalism isn't the problem. Venture capitalists are the problem. And I think all the unconscious bias training that everyone is in acting in is not working. And I think in terms of conversation, yes, we've been talking about this problem, but that's exactly the problem. We keep on talking, but we're not funding. So we're over mentoring these founders, but we're not investing, and that is the final thing that is moving the needle.

I would say venture capitalism isn't the problem. Venture capitalists are the problem. And I think all the unconscious bias training that everyone is in acting in is not working. And I think in terms of conversation, yes, we've been talking about this problem, but that's exactly the problem. We keep on talking, but we're not funding. So we're over mentoring these founders, but we're not investing, and that is the final thing that is moving the needle.

Right.

Right.

Mentoring isn't money. Mentoring is just hey, here's what you need to do, but ultimately people need the money to kind of move ahead. Nah, really appreciate some time with you, Nora baby. She is Unconventional Ventures co founder and general partner joining us on Zoom from Stockholm. Now, the numbers, you know, Bailey, are jarring, but I do feel like we had this conversation throughout the pandemic that a lot of things would change in terms of the importance of diversity, uh and inclusion, had a lot of important conversations, and yet here we.

Mentoring isn't money. Mentoring is just hey, here's what you need to do, but ultimately people need the money to kind of move ahead. Nah, really appreciate some time with you, Nora baby. She is Unconventional Ventures co founder and general partner joining us on Zoom from Stockholm. Now, the numbers, you know, Bailey, are jarring, but I do feel like we had this conversation throughout the pandemic that a lot of things would change in terms of the importance of diversity, uh and inclusion, had a lot of important conversations, and yet here we.

Are exactly and you mentioned this goes back to years. This is not a new phenomenon by any stretch.

Are exactly and you mentioned this goes back to years. This is not a new phenomenon by any stretch.

Yeah, so I'm wondering why isn't it changing? All right, everybody, you're listening and watching Blueberg.

Yeah, so I'm wondering why isn't it changing? All right, everybody, you're listening and watching Blueberg.

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It's good question. This is the drive to the globe. Tim thing well, byeld on Bluemberg Radio.

All right, everybody just got just under eighteen minutes left in today's trading session. Carol Master along a Bailey Lipsheltz. He is in for Tim Stenovic on this Monday. And you know, Bailey, our next guest says consumers are growing gloomy air, which is kind of interesting considering we just talked with Koonam who said she was shocked by how many shoppers were out there and they were shopping big time at retail throughout the weekend.

All right, everybody just got just under eighteen minutes left in today's trading session. Carol Master along a Bailey Lipsheltz. He is in for Tim Stenovic on this Monday. And you know, Bailey, our next guest says consumers are growing gloomy air, which is kind of interesting considering we just talked with Koonam who said she was shocked by how many shoppers were out there and they were shopping big time at retail throughout the weekend.

And a lot of that data showing up showing that consumer's spent up not only a Black Friday, but it does seem like Cyber Monday still driving further sales.

And a lot of that data showing up showing that consumer's spent up not only a Black Friday, but it does seem like Cyber Monday still driving further sales.

Yeah, they're out there spending, right, So it's interesting. We'll see what he has to say, and it does make me wonder about consumers just discretionary stocks kind of what's the outlook if he thinks the consumers are getting gloomier. Let's get to it the Drive to the Close with Mace MacLean. He is chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors, a wholly owned subsidiary Frost Bank, and they serve institutional and high net worth individual's. Firm, by the way, has about five point one billion in assets under management. Mace joining us on Zoom from San Antonio, Texas. Mace, he good to have you here with Billy and myself. How is Texas?

Yeah, they're out there spending, right, So it's interesting. We'll see what he has to say, and it does make me wonder about consumers just discretionary stocks kind of what's the outlook if he thinks the consumers are getting gloomier. Let's get to it the Drive to the Close with Mace MacLean. He is chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors, a wholly owned subsidiary Frost Bank, and they serve institutional and high net worth individual's. Firm, by the way, has about five point one billion in assets under management. Mace joining us on Zoom from San Antonio, Texas. Mace, he good to have you here with Billy and myself. How is Texas?

Oh, it's doing very well. We still have a lot of in migration from California and other places, and the economy is booming. It's doing very well here.

Oh, it's doing very well. We still have a lot of in migration from California and other places, and the economy is booming. It's doing very well here.

The economy's booming. So how do you then kind of cross that with this idea that consumers are growing gloomier and our own B I or B economics team Bloomery economics team. We're talking about session next year, So give us an idea. Your economy booming, but you're a little worried about consumers.

The economy's booming. So how do you then kind of cross that with this idea that consumers are growing gloomier and our own B I or B economics team Bloomery economics team. We're talking about session next year, So give us an idea. Your economy booming, but you're a little worried about consumers.

It sounds like I am worried about the consumers. So you know, consumer income is falling on a real basis, or it did last quarter. So I think the consumers getting more and more stretched, and so I don't think that looks great there. And the thing that's been holding them up, probably the most employment, employment started weakening, and so I think that the consumer spending side to us is becoming more cautionary.

It sounds like I am worried about the consumers. So you know, consumer income is falling on a real basis, or it did last quarter. So I think the consumers getting more and more stretched, and so I don't think that looks great there. And the thing that's been holding them up, probably the most employment, employment started weakening, and so I think that the consumer spending side to us is becoming more cautionary.

That means, why are we seeing consumers showing up and spending Black Friday, Cyber Monday. It still seems like, at least according to the data, the consumer looks stronger.

That means, why are we seeing consumers showing up and spending Black Friday, Cyber Monday. It still seems like, at least according to the data, the consumer looks stronger.

Underneath.

Underneath.

They're continuing to expand their credit. We're seeing credit card balances increase and so and the saving rates is falling. We're seeing saving rate has fallen precipitously, and so they're increasing their leverage. I think also the discounting is drawing that I think that which has long term effects on corporate earnings. But I think that you know, companies are drawing them with greater discounting.

They're continuing to expand their credit. We're seeing credit card balances increase and so and the saving rates is falling. We're seeing saving rate has fallen precipitously, and so they're increasing their leverage. I think also the discounting is drawing that I think that which has long term effects on corporate earnings. But I think that you know, companies are drawing them with greater discounting.

Help me understand though. You know, we were just talking with our Punam Gooel of our Bloomberg Intelligence team who tracks all the retail sector, and she said this, you know, this increase in the use of buy now, pay later, that it's in some ways that consumers feel confident enough to do it and that they'll be able to pay it back in a couple of months before they've got to start paying interest on it. That that's a sign of some confidence. Do you at all see it that way?

Help me understand though. You know, we were just talking with our Punam Gooel of our Bloomberg Intelligence team who tracks all the retail sector, and she said this, you know, this increase in the use of buy now, pay later, that it's in some ways that consumers feel confident enough to do it and that they'll be able to pay it back in a couple of months before they've got to start paying interest on it. That that's a sign of some confidence. Do you at all see it that way?

Yes.

Yes.

The other odd thing we've seen this year in consumer surveys is consumer has been very negative, but then they continue to spend, and so they're saying one thing, but they're acting another way. And they've been doing that through most of the years. So that's just been a consistent THEMA. All the surveys shows consumers being very negative, but you know, we had a very strong growth in consumer spending in the third quarter, so they continue to spend in spite of being very negative.

The other odd thing we've seen this year in consumer surveys is consumer has been very negative, but then they continue to spend, and so they're saying one thing, but they're acting another way. And they've been doing that through most of the years. So that's just been a consistent THEMA. All the surveys shows consumers being very negative, but you know, we had a very strong growth in consumer spending in the third quarter, so they continue to spend in spite of being very negative.

And MACE. If that's the case, where should investors be putting money to work?

And MACE. If that's the case, where should investors be putting money to work?

You know, I don't want to get away in front of the year end rally. You know, seasonally, it's great that we're going into the fourth quarter, and I think that I just want to enjoy the polishness of the market for the fourth quarter. Now, on the bond market, we're kind of backed off a little bit. We've been buying bonds basically with both hands and with enthusiasm until a month or so ago, and with these current rates, I think that we probably overshot on the downside on rates in the near term.

You know, I don't want to get away in front of the year end rally. You know, seasonally, it's great that we're going into the fourth quarter, and I think that I just want to enjoy the polishness of the market for the fourth quarter. Now, on the bond market, we're kind of backed off a little bit. We've been buying bonds basically with both hands and with enthusiasm until a month or so ago, and with these current rates, I think that we probably overshot on the downside on rates in the near term.

And when you look at kind of expectations, very much a fed driven market, very much a magnificent seven and then a handful of stocks driving the market. Do you expect us to get three rate cuts in twenty twenty four like the swap market is implying.

And when you look at kind of expectations, very much a fed driven market, very much a magnificent seven and then a handful of stocks driving the market. Do you expect us to get three rate cuts in twenty twenty four like the swap market is implying.

I think that that's the key. I think you put your finger right on it. We don't expect three rate cuts. I don't think that's why. I think we've overcorrected and had two big of a rally in the rates market. You know, we're down forty to fifty basis points on rates, and I think that people aren't listening to higher prolonger or believing again they then resolved, and I just don't see us seeing that sort of rate rally, And I think that that brings a lot of risk to the stock market in the next year. So I want to enjoy this Christmas rally, but I think that as reality hits and we start looking at those rates rate cuts not materializing, that we have an adjustment coming in the market.

I think that that's the key. I think you put your finger right on it. We don't expect three rate cuts. I don't think that's why. I think we've overcorrected and had two big of a rally in the rates market. You know, we're down forty to fifty basis points on rates, and I think that people aren't listening to higher prolonger or believing again they then resolved, and I just don't see us seeing that sort of rate rally, And I think that that brings a lot of risk to the stock market in the next year. So I want to enjoy this Christmas rally, but I think that as reality hits and we start looking at those rates rate cuts not materializing, that we have an adjustment coming in the market.

So why do you think or why do you not think that maybe the expectations about possibly a recession next year is not already kind of baked into the equity market. You know, basically where we are in the s and P five hundred is back where we were right in July, kind of late July, and then we saw, of course a pullback, and then we've bounced off the October lows. But why do you think that some of the expectations right market is a discounting mechanism? Why do you think some of that expectation isn't maybe already priced, and especially if it's kind of a mellow recession, maybe even a soft landing.

So why do you think or why do you not think that maybe the expectations about possibly a recession next year is not already kind of baked into the equity market. You know, basically where we are in the s and P five hundred is back where we were right in July, kind of late July, and then we saw, of course a pullback, and then we've bounced off the October lows. But why do you think that some of the expectations right market is a discounting mechanism? Why do you think some of that expectation isn't maybe already priced, and especially if it's kind of a mellow recession, maybe even a soft landing.

Well, yeah, we do believe, we don't. I personally very skeptical about a soft landing. They're so rare, and just to believe that it's going to happen after a five hundred basis point increase, a historically very abrupt and very high rate increases to believe that that brings about a soft landing, it's just to be very difficult to get there or at least sign a high probability. So we're very skeptical of that. And so we do think that the economy a weekend. But I think if you look back into what happened in the seventies, that that we're not going to see rapid in large rate cuts. Probably this BED is really avowed not to make the same mistakes. Oh, go ahead, Okay, I don't see that the FED making the same mistakes and being aggressive on cuts.

Well, yeah, we do believe, we don't. I personally very skeptical about a soft landing. They're so rare, and just to believe that it's going to happen after a five hundred basis point increase, a historically very abrupt and very high rate increases to believe that that brings about a soft landing, it's just to be very difficult to get there or at least sign a high probability. So we're very skeptical of that. And so we do think that the economy a weekend. But I think if you look back into what happened in the seventies, that that we're not going to see rapid in large rate cuts. Probably this BED is really avowed not to make the same mistakes. Oh, go ahead, Okay, I don't see that the FED making the same mistakes and being aggressive on cuts.

Mace McCain, chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors, joining us on Zoom from San Antonio, Texas.

Mace McCain, chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors, joining us on Zoom from San Antonio, Texas.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal