SoftBank Joins OpenAI, Oracle in AI Pact Unveiled by Trump

Published Jan 22, 2025, 9:04 PM

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Technology Co-Host Caroline Hyde interviews Arm CEO Rene Haas on the AI pact unveiled by President Trump. Bloomberg News AI Reporter Rachel Metz shares her thoughts on the AI infrastructure news. Najat Khan, Chief Commercial and R&D Officer at Recursion, talks about partnering with Nvidia to use machine learning to discover new medicines. Ben Harburg, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Core Values Alpha, discusses investing in China under a new Trump regime. Rich Greenfield, Partner and Analyst at Lightshed Partners, shares his thoughts on Netflix outlook post earnings. And we Drive to the Close with Alexis Browne Roberts, COO at Alexis Investment Partners.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.

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This is Bloomberg Business Week Insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business finance and tech news the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

Well, a bunch of names are rallying in the tech sector today and then include some stocks affirms that power and equipment data centers. Those are names that we are seeing movie and this has to do with some of the news that we got yesterday from President Trump when he announced a one hundred billion dollar joint venture to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. And so we're talking about some big spend maybe over the next few years. It is a joint venture tip that brings together some well known companies in the tech space.

Includes Oracle, soft Bank, and open Ai to work on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Armholdings, Microsoft and Nvidia will provide technology as well. And that brings us to our first interview Bloomberg Technology co host Caroline Hyde with the CEO of Armholdings, Renee Has.

Tim, Carol, thank you so much and Renee Has. It is a joy to welcome you, CEO of ARM, who is indeed a technology partner on what is initially a one hundred billion dollar investment can scale to five hundred billion dollars.

In the next few years. What exactly is Arm's role here?

Good morning, Kroen. Yeah, it's an exciting day for sure, such a significant investment infrastructure. So ARM will be the CPU of choice, if you will. Inside these AI data centers. We power Grace Blackwell, which is the Nvidia product that will be used. But lots of opportunity for all kinds of armed technology, but most importantly the CPUs that power Stargate, they'll be armed.

So already, as you say, integrated into Grace Blackwell, what sort of innovations could this stir on your side? What way will we see your designs progress into this supercomputer and more to come.

Maybe five hundred billion dollars of investment and multiple gigawatts of energy require incredibly efficient processor solutions. So I think as we go forward, as these plans get more and more defined, I think there'll be more and more opportunity. But right now we're super excited to be involved with Nvidia and Grace Blackwell.

I think that's so key as these plans get more and more defined. These are at the moment pretty new announcements coming, but people questioning how new the ultimate decision to spend has been because we already had massive Of course, this leader of soft Bank, which in many ways owns a large part of ARM, talking about this one hundred billion dollar investment in infrastructure in the US.

But a few weeks ago, how has this been in the making.

These discussions have been going on for many months. Something like this does not happen overnight. I think the world is seen that to reach AGI or ASI or some of the the capabilities of artificial intelligence, a tremendous amount of capital is going to be required. Obviously, a lot of power is going to be required, a lot of compute is going to be required. MASA has been looking at this for quite some time. We've been talking to the open ayfolks and Oracle and MGX and Microsoft and Nvidia. So I think what you're seeing that just came together was the culmination of all those conversations. But it didn't happen overnight.

For sure, does it have the money.

I'm afraid some shade being thrown on this project by one in a musque.

Do you have anything to provide?

I know you're the technology partner, but what about the capital.

Yeah, I haven't seen Elon's tweet, although I certainly certainly have heard about it. There is a lot of backing for this, Caroline. Believe me, it was not taken lightly to make the announcement yesterday at the White House with President Trump. So I think it can feel pretty good that the financial backing behind.

This is quite solid and open.

AI itself saying one hundred billion dollars is going to be deployed in me comgiately, we understand already ground broken in Texas.

How big could this scale?

How large a supercomputer on this particular time, and where does the rest of the four hundred billion dollars go?

Do you think?

Well, just by way of if you look at the dollars and the power the largest data center today or data centers for AI or in the hundreds of megawatts, five hundred billion dollars, which is just a gigantic amount, buys you multiple gigawatts of energy, so you're talking orders of magnitude of scale. The complexity required with that, though, Karen, is enormous when you think about logistics, when you think about materials, when you think about moving all those things around.

This is what's going to drive a lot of jobs.

By the way, our role at ARM is going to be all around power efficiency. When you're at that scale, every milliwat counts in terms of saving power. So that's what our focus is going to largely be on.

Talking of jobs, have you got the talent for this KILO project?

Where do you need to be allocating to it at the moment? Is it talent?

Is it bringing in yet more technology? Is it even making acquisitions.

We've been very, very aggressive in hiring folks. The ARM has grown a lot since I became CEO in twenty twenty two. We're about five thousand people or so. Then we're now north of eight thousand. We've got lots of open job rex, We're working with lots of partners. It will take a lot of talent to pull this off, but that's why we have a lot of partners involved in this as well, whether it's Microsoft and Video Oracle, Open AI. It's going to take a village, but we're so excited about the opportunity and just the benefits I think it's going to bring to humanity.

What about benefits to others than open Ai?

Is this going to remain only compute for open ai right now?

That's all we're talking about is open ai as the primary partner. And again, our role at ARM is really going to be providing the efficient processors. I'm super focused on that. It's a big problem to undertake, but we're thrilled that we're going to be the CPU of choice inside these data centers.

I remember a little while ago, in about May of last year, having a conversation with another person in chips is all about efficiency on energy who actually is also called Renee.

And I'm talking about Amper here.

They have a close relationship with Oracle and soft Bank has potentially been interested. How do you feel about the relationship you're doing with that Oracle right now? And could there be some sort of working relationship with ampere.

Renee James is a great friend. Ampier uses arm CPUs. Oracle is a big user of Ampier CPUs, so I imagine in some way, shape or form, Yeah, I think Ampier will be involved in this.

Do you think they'll ever become part of the soft Bank conglomerates of chip expertise?

Yeah?

That part.

I can't go too far on, but I think you know, ARM being the center of this is probably one of the key data points from this announcement.

Just on ultimately the laser focus that you have on this energy side of things and the efficiency side of things, but also that dovetailing with Mass's.

Vision, your own vision to be ever more relevant in data centers. Is this the project? Is this the fruition that we'll get.

I think what you're seeing is a culmination of continued efforts in this space. We've been at the data center problem for quite some time. We understand it better and better each day, each week, each month, each year. You've got major deployments now for ARM compute. I would look at this as sort of the next phase of that evolution. Some of the problems that need to be solved around these AI data centers are very, very innovative, whether it's at the blade.

Level or at the ract level.

Every ounce of power counts, and we think we've got an amazing ip and solutions to go off and address that.

Every ounce of power counts, every bit of capital counts, but also it counts to have relationships at the top of government. It feels like and from a bystander, here there's friction. There's friction with eat on musk and some moment, How difficult is that for you to navigate? How hard is it for the US to win in this circumstance If we've got two KEI players going head to head, well, you.

Know, there's always going to be competition, Caroline, no matter what market we're talking about. I was in Washington the last few days around the ignageration activities. One of the things I was just really struck with in talking to many of the new officials who are coming on board, is just the amount of pace that wants to be applied to solving some of these problems. You know, again, to put up these large data centers is not only a huge task in terms of capital and compute, but you need permits and regulatory clearances and a number of different things that need to get done to pave the way. And I really get the sense that with this new administration they're very much on board to make this happen and make it happen inside the United States.

Is there a risk though, that we're going too fast because suddenly we're potentially getting rules of the road, the regulation and indeed, some of the governance will just torn down in favor of pace.

You know, I'm an AI optimist. You and I have chatted about this a number of times. I think the benefits that are going to come from this work are going to outweigh it with the negatives.

You know.

One of the areas I continue to be the most excited about is medicine drug research. When you think about the fact that today it takes ten to fifteen years, twenty years to develop a new drug. From the start of the molecular science, ninety five percent of those drugs fail. They never see the light of day. And then you get into the testing, whether it's on animals and humans and focus groups, shrinking all of those things down, finding ways to cure cancer, finding ways to have drugs that are specifically your genome, your DNA. This is all possible with AI, and I think AIS be require to have the breakthrough to cure some of these horrible diseases that we've never been able to solve.

And this is a private effort.

This is money and capital coming from foreign entities, but private. They held businesses here in the US and indeed the capital markets.

Does no one need to come from government, because actually that's what we saw in the previous administration, was.

Real money coming from the government for chips. Will that come from this next administration?

Do you think, Yeah, that's not part of this announcement. This announcement has nothing to do with the government in terms of putting money into it. I think though, the government has a role to play, as I mentioned, in terms of just clearing some of the regulatory hurdles, which is not small. So having the government on your side as you're trying to accelerate these efforts is only a good thing.

Rene Has has been nothing but a good thing having you on the show. We appreciate it, CEO of and sending it back to you, Tim and Carol.

All right, so appreciate it our Caroline Hi there with the CEO of Armholdings, Renee Has. We are staying though, with the world of artificial intelligence because there is so much going on.

It really is top of mind.

And this is coming after the first twenty four hours back in Washington, we did see President Trump send a different message to the AI community. He basically was just saying, just build and that is kind of teeing off what we just heard from the Arm Holdings CEO that one hundred billion dollar AI spending spree led by SoftBank, Open Ai and Oracle with a focus on that physical infrastructure.

And there's a lot more than that going on. Tim.

Yeah.

At the same time President Trump were sending Biden sweeping executive order on AI. The move immediately haulted the implementation of key safety and transparency requirements for AI developers. And then another headline alphabet Google's latest one billion dollars into one of the most promising rivals to open a We're talking about the AI developer anthropic. So here with our AI roundup. Back with us, as Bloomberg News AI reporter Rachel Metz joins us live from San Francisco. Rachel, I do want to start with what we just heard from Renee has and Caroline Hyde about this stargate project at one hundred billion dollars five hundred billion dollars. Help us read through the numbers here and read through the press releases. Give us an understanding of how you're interpreting this announcement. Now that the dust has settled just about twenty four hours after.

This announcement, so, as Renee said, this has been in the works for a while, and we've reported on various talks related to infrastructure plans. As we all know at this point, AI is extremely expensive, so if you're going to do anything really impactful, you're going to have to spend a lot of money. So it does make sense that there are some really big price tags connected to this, and the names that are involved make a lot of sense. I think it's important to keep in mind that this is really meant to be beneficial to open AI. Open Ai is an equity holder in this, and also, as they said, this is to build infrastructure for that company.

Well, and that's what I was curious about Rachel's We kind of went through the list of companies, those companies that are part of this, including ARM and others. Does it mean that they are at an advantage and those that are not at a disadvantage?

You mean, are these companies that are involved at more of an advantage than other companies that are not involved.

Yeah, in this particular bill in terms of infrastructure and then kind of working with the government directly.

I mean, you.

Could say that they're at an advantage because they are market leaders working with a market leader, but it sort of remains to be seen like right now, some buildout is underway in Texas, as they said. Larry Ellison indicated last night in an interview on Fox News that the Texas buildout will be used to train an upcoming.

Model from open AI.

But other than that, we don't really know much about what's going to happen here. We don't even know who's putting in how much money for the most.

Part, so a lot of this tool is a TBD, I would say.

Well, speaking of that, we're already hearing from Elon Musk, your close advisor to the president and of course overseeing DOGE. He openly questioned whether companies that joined this announcement promising hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure could actually follow through on their promise. How do you look at Elon Musk's role in all this, considering his history with Sam Altman at open AI, what he's doing at XAI, and his close proximity to the president, how do you make sense of that?

I think you've got to answered your own question a little bit right there. I mean, it sounds Elon Musk clearly has a long history with Sam Altman and with open AI, and Elon is also involved in his own company, he's involved with now the federal government.

So he's got a lot going on.

I think he made a really fair observation, though, like, hey, where where is this money coming from? Because as we were just talking about, they are saying, here, we're going to be using this much money, but it isn't clear at this point where exactly all that money is coming from, and that money hasn't all been spent yet. So I do think that questioning where it's going to come from is fair. I think it's a fair question to ask.

But is it surprising to you, Rachel, not to see an Elon Musk company front and center in this announcement given his influence on President Trump?

Hmm, you know, I'm really not sure, because again, this has been in the works for for a long time, so it would be difficult, I would think for Xai or another of Elon Musk's companies to sort of swoop in. If these other companies, let's say, we're talking about this for a long time, that might be a little more surprising.

Rachel.

So wait, if this has been in the talks for a long time, are you saying since President Trump was elected?

So this is.

Definitely, you know, an initiative that Donald Trump the president started or would this be also have or have been announced potentially under if we had seen Kamala Harris in the White House.

I mean, this is not the government is not doing this. This is something that's been.

In the works.

This is a private sector investment that's been in the works for a long time. I mean, we've reported on various talks and possibilities for this sort of arrangement over the past year.

It's interesting to hear that because at the same time, speaking of government, as I mentioned, President Trump resented biden sweeping executive order on AI, so it halted the implementation of key safety and transparent and see requirements for AI developers. How do you analyze a move like that in terms of regulation and certainly the calls that we've seen from some folks in the community that say, hey, this is technology that needs to have some oversight.

Yeah, and where's Elon's kind of stamp in this where he has raised those concerns.

Yeah, No, those are some really good questions.

I feel like what we're seeing now is sort of what one would expect. You'd expect to see, less oversight, less regulation, with this administration, But there are also a lot of valid questions about how these AI models are going to be used or being used now, how powerful they will be, all those kinds of things. Even AI companies themselves have said that they support various forms of regulation. So I'm not really sure what's going to happen from here on out in this administration, but it is clear that there will certainly be less regulation, less emphasis on openness on the parts of the tech company.

And is it safe to say Rachel.

At the same time time, when we think about officials overseas or over in Europe, where they have often been ahead, I feel like when it comes to privacy, consumer privacy, with social media and the digital world, that they're going to keep moving ahead. In terms of AI oversight, AI transparency.

It's possible, it is possible that we'll see that.

I think the next I would say the next like four months, six months is going to be really instructive as to what's going to happen over the next year or two.

Okay, we said this would be like, you know, a round of quick questions or fire questions when it comes to AI. So we're kind of going all over the places promised Rachel. I'm wondering about this recent funding and more recent funding for Anthropic. This is a company that's a competitor to open AI, Google putting in the latest billion dollars into the company. Is this a company that does hold a candle to open AI, especially given the announcements yesterday.

Yeah.

I think certain models that they make are super competitive. I know that program in particular, really love using some of their models. Anthropic has really prided itself as a company that focuses on safety. I think that resonates with a lot of their customers, and they have a lot of smart people working there. As we said before, AI extremely expensive to build, so they're going to have to keep bringing in money to get their systems to where they want them to be and get them out to their customers.

You know, I am curious.

As we said, there's a lot kind of coming at at the space, and I'm not surprised, right, I mean, I feel like so many of our conversations revolve around some.

Kind of aspect of AI.

We're going to have more about drug development a little bit later on this hour, so there's just so much going on.

But how are you I don't.

Know, thinking about kind of the world right now when it comes to AI and what's top of mind for you.

Ooh, that's a tricky one.

I mean, I feel like we're entering a phase where a lot of companies are working on agents AI systems that can carry out more complicated tasks.

But it's still very very early days in that.

I mean, companies have been trying to build that sort of thing for a while now, and we're just starting to see some real products go out over these past several months, and we'll see also in the future.

So I think that's.

Something I'm going to be keeping a close eye on and seeing just how capable these things are. I mean, there are so many promises and so many bombastic figures in AI, but I think it really comes down to like, how do these things actually work for people? How are they built? And also I'll be paying more and more attention on the environmental impacts, which I think a lot of people are paying more attention to as well. As these systems get bigger and more powerful, they consume more resources, and that's also something I know a lot of people are interested in.

All Right, great perspective, As always, there's as we said, so many headlines, so many different stories, and Rachel mets just making sense of it all.

Rachel Metz is Bloomberg News AI reporter.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or live on YouTube.

As you know, we are all in on AI today, as seems to be the case in Washington, President Trump, Davos, a lot of tech companies, Google and more. As you heard earlier, one area we increasingly are talking about when it comes to artificial intelligence is healthcare and specifically drug discovery. And our next guest can shed some light on that with us is najat Con. She is chief Commercial and R and D Officer at the publicly traded three billion dollar market cap biotech and drug discovery company Recursion. It is headquartered in Salt Lake City. She joins us here at our New York studio. So great to have you here. It does feel like we have this theme. First of all, tell us.

About your company and what you guys are working on.

Absolutely, you know, Recursion is really focused on founded on the intersection of AI and bio coming together. And one of the main reasons for that is today if you look in the healthcare industry making medicines, ninety percent of those drugs fail in the clinic, so only a ten percent success story time and cost is too long and patients for waiting. So what Recursions is doing is leveraging AI and high quality data sets that are actually generated in our own labs at scale automated web labs in order to build fit for purpose AI algorithms that are then used to decode biology to really understand what's driving the disease, use generative AI to design molecules, designing molecules that somebody who's a PhD Organic chemist never considered before, and then using that to make medicines in the clinic. So today we have ten clinical stage and preclinical programs in the clinic across oncology and rare diseases, and over ten programs in discovery and ten additional programs with partners like Roach and Santa Fe. So real powerhouse in terms of not just the idea of using AI, but applying it to make medicines that are different shaded for is.

It's actually being used right now as we speak absolutely explain exactly how that's happening.

So I'll give some success stories.

Maybe I'll share an example because it just makes it more real. Nine is a program. It's in solid tumors, that's in the clinic. It's recruiting patients today. The concept that this protein, this target could be important in cancer came from these maps of biology that recursion creates. You're taking images of cells, applying computer vision and AI, and then actually you can discern what compounds take diseased cells back to healthy cells. So from that's where the insight came from. Second, we actually use generative AI active learning to design the molecule. One of the biggest challenges when you're actually trying to design the molecule is ensuring that it doesn't just work well from an efficacy perspective, but it's also safe. So that's the other thing, and here's the beauty of it.

Wait, so it's being put to use though already, like.

On actionity, we're seeing what you guys are doing, we're seeing it on patients.

Absolutely all of the programs in the clinic or in pre clinical is using AI, and as an example, just the RBM thirty nine program which is in solid tumors. It takes usually about forty two to almost fifty months to get into the clinic from an idea to get into the clinic, this took eighteen months two hundred less than two hundred molecules synthesize usually in industry, and I come from large pharma before you're making three four five thousand compounds, so you're doing things better faster, And the insight is a first in class molecule, which means nobody's come up with this before. The idea came from leveraging AI to create these maps of biology coupled with precision AI chemistry design to make new molecules.

But as we've talked about Nazade, like the AI or the outcome is only as good as the data going in and app So some say that we're still kind of early in. I know there's a lot of data out there, but I would in the healthcare community, how do you ensure the kind of the purity of your data sets that your outcomes are really productive.

That's such an excellent question. Look, I think even before we talk about AI data is the different shader and fit for purpose data sets. So at recursion we have about sixty petabytes of data that we have generated both internally and also partnering with partners such as Tempest and others. This is the difference. It's having a wet lab and a dry lab. So essentially you're generating the data, using that data to train your algorithms, and you're going back in those algorithms as they get better. Are actually than predicting what experiments you should make. We call it the real world and the world model and so forth. That is a different shader because then you can have your algorithms be best in class. And a lot of this is proprietary data sets in Salt Lake in our headquarters that we are generating, and then on top of that, you're applying it around problems that really matter. This is the other thing that's really important. We don't just use AA for the sake of AI, but we use it based on the pain points that leading to the ninety percent failure rate today. Right, So what are those number one understanding was driving the disease? It sounds really simple, but it's usually not one protein. Is multiple things that are happening in our body. Maps of biology give you not just the pinpoint of what's driving the disease, but everything else that is connected to think about it as the highways that connect across our different cells and organs. The other is also using AI and machine learning to think about ten to the sixtieth permutation is what you can have in terms of the compounds you can make. No human can actually think through that. So you're using AI to design the molecules all in a computer and only make the ones that you've convictioned it.

We heard Larry Elison say yesterday that we could see a cancer vaccine, an mRNA based cancer vaccine as a result of investment in AI. You're talking about tumors being targeted. What are the other conditions now that you think could be targeted as a result of AI and pharmaceuticals within our lifetime? Like, what's the world that we should be imagining for our kids.

And for our grandkids?

Yeah, I think for us maybe in a few years.

Well, that's the goal because patients are waiting, and that's the reason why the BET and what we're doing. Here's what I would say oncology. Absolutely, rare disease is we also have programs and rare diseases, whether the underpinning of it is genetic mutations or other aspects. And this is and also immunology. That's the next arc. And I want to emphasize immunology because the immunom is what connects all of the different diseases, whether it's oncology, neuro and so forth. The trick to it is the following though. It's not enough to just have one data layer. You need to have multiple data layers. So what do I mean. You want to have genetics, You want to have transcryptomic, which is how are the proteins, how is mRNA being transcribed? You want to have protein data, You want to have patient data like eachr the claims. You have to connect across all of those data system That's what we're doing. So what Recursion has is a multi O mix, multi modal data layer that we have generated the petabies that I mentioned. That is quite unique because you need that to be able to address biology from all of those different angles oncology, immunology, neuroscience.

We only have about a minute or so left here. I know we could probably go on for at least an hour to write to talk a.

Little bit more about this.

Your stock surge back in the summer of twenty twenty three with a record rally following news of the investment from Nvidia that was more than one and a half years ago.

What's Nvidia's role in all of this?

Great question.

It's a big investment, and again only got about forty five fifty seconds.

We talked about how data is really important and high quality data and AI algorithms that sit on top of that. Everything that underpins developing these AI algorithms and finding insights from the data is that you have to have exceptional supercomputer capabilities. And by the way, the one that we've built, Biohi two with recursion and collaborate with the Nvidia and collaboration, is the fastest supercomputer in the life sciences industry, thirty fifth in the world, fastest in life sciences. Without that, we can do these things at scale.

So do you ultimately again just got about ten fifteen seconds. Do you ultimately hook up with the big drug makers? Do they access your technology or how does this?

Yeah, we have partnerships with four pharma companies large Sanofee, Roschenantec buyer, MARCGA with multiple programs across oncology, immunology, and neuroscience that we're partnering on well.

Stay in touch, love to hear more as you guys build out and continue your build out. NA dot Com Chief Commercial and R and D officer at the publicly traded three billion dollar market cap biotech company Recursion. Joining us right here in studio.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five these during listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

President Donald Trump widened his tariff threats to include China and the EU on a second day back in office, after day ones on Canada and Mexico and his sits Carol. Here's what he said. We're talking about a tariff of ten percent on China based on the fact that they're sending fetanol to Mexico and Canada. He said that during an event at the White House on Tuesday, and he specified February first as a possible date.

We've seen some reaction to at the NASDAK Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks companies Chinese companies that trade here in the United States that do business in China but are traded. As we said in the US. It's down about half a percent right now, so we keep an eye on it. For some sensitivity about US China and terrists between the two, well, for.

An idea of what Chinese companies faced over the next four years. We bring back Ben Harberg. He's founder and portfolio manager of Core Values Alpha. He manages the CVA Great China Growth ETF ticker cg RO. It's got a market cap about seven and a half million dollars. It's biggest holdings include shall Me, PDD, ten Cent, Trip, dot Com, Buid, and more. Ben usually joining us from China, but today he's stateside in Washington, d C. Ben, you were in d C for the inauguration. Why did you make the trip?

I think this is done in America.

I think this is the new really is a new era for business, for regulation, for education reform.

I wanted to see the personalities.

I wanted to spend time with the cabinet members and really get a sense of where things are headed, and meet the MAGA faithful of course as well, but really really to be here at the presspice if I think something really exciting for our country.

It's interesting to hear you say that because you run a portfolio that is made up of companies that do business in China, and China is certainly in the crosshairs of the Trump administration. It happened during the first term, it's no doubt happening already right now. So surprised to hear from you that you would be optimistic about the Trump administration given your holdings.

Well, we have pretty diversified holdings. As we discussed last time. We have much bigger on the private side.

Much of that is in the United States.

Some of our biggest holdings are US defense names as well. So the segro ETF is part of a diversified portfolio. Is I think we think is exciting given the kind of undervalued nature of the Chinese market, But it's by no means our principal vehicle and one that shapes our policy.

But I don't think that.

I don't think the two are necessarily independent of one another. A strong US economy also benefits China. And at the end of the day, I think Trump is a businessman. He wants to see you, As you said publicly, both economies do well. You think both economies together can solve many of the world's problems. And I think what's critical now is that we lay the foundations for a actionable, pragmatic trade deal, kind of a two point zero trade deal that actually could I think i've filled you guys before benefit Chinese stocks in the long term because a lot of those tensions would.

Be taken off the table in the name of pragmatism.

So what's more interesting to you than Ben because we often talk to you about what's going on with Chinese companies, in particular amid US China relations and other news developments. Having said that, as you said, you guys across your portfolio can go to other places.

What's more exciting to you right now?

Is it trading in US companies, buying investing in US companies at this point as a result of a Trump White House, a second Trump White House, or are there opportunities in China as well?

Well?

Again exclusive, I think the Chinese companies are massively undervalued, but we have held the viewpoint for over a year that were Trump to come into office, it could lead to a binary, significantly improved outcome for Chinese companies. And if they're already trading at historic lows and against all fundamentals, that means that investing the Chinese market today. If a trade deal is struck, and I think it will be because because Trump wants to get things done, could lead to four or five x returns on the current kind of valuations of today's Chinese companies that we see it. With TikTok for instance, I mean, TikTok is probably worth about five times greater than what it's trading on the private secondary market once some kind of you know, kind of concrete outcome is determined about its future. We were of the viewpoint, for instance, that it would not be banned, and everything has played out exactly as expected. So I'm also very much excited about America. My kind of personal passion is the reindustrial relation of the United States. Thinking about ways that we also build our supply chain independents, reinvigorate our manufacturing, think about all the key technology areas, be it quantum, AI, drones, and next generation defense, and so there's going to be a lot of really exciting investment into that space as well. One of our biggest holdings historically was Palan. Here we've invested in a lot of the other next generation defense technology companies in the United States, and I think all of them are going to boom with this administration coming in.

But to be clear, the only fund you managed, at least according to the Bloomberg terminal, is the Core Values Alpha Greater China ATF correct.

I know.

I'm also a managing partner on all of our private funds as well.

Okay, but public public funds as far as like portfolio.

None of these are public. Yeah, these are the private Okay.

So the public fund, the public fund that you have though, is exclusively China.

And we're adding in more. Okay, we're adding in more to that.

What are you adding in?

So we're adding in.

If you look at the website, we really we describe ourselves as America First Equities Investing, and we'll be launching several We'll be launching a defense related fund, We'll be launching a US reshoring related fund, We'll be launching several other products that that I think will benefit from the current dynamic. And our thesis on the China Fund from the offset was we're competing against other fund managers like k web that are CCP owned. The ic C is the owner of k WEB, which is a state owned asset manager from China. And our view was we could differentiate from them and outperform them, as we did last year by doing a screen of all those China names to en sure they weren't infringing upon US national security interests or values.

So that was our differentiator in launching this product from day one. It's kind of America first, China investing.

Given what I'm hearing from you, and given what we've talked about in the past, it's it's you know, you're talking a lot about the US. Our focus int of interviews with you over the past couple of years have been in China. You've joined us from China. Oftentimes, do you see yourself staying in China over the next four years or do you move to the United States.

We've always been multipolar.

We have had we have our offices in China, but we've I've also based myself based myself most of the time in out of the Middle East the last couple of years, and then we have homes in Boston and San Francisco, so I've always been multipleler moving between those. But I think that over the coming year or two, you'll see me spending a lot more time here in the US because this is really where decisions are being taken that will ripple.

Through the rest of the world, and I want to be on board for it.

Totally get it, hey, Ben, So remind us how much you guys.

Have in assets under management and what you are seeing in terms of flows coming in or going out.

We're about two and a half billion dollars across all of our products, and again most.

Of that is private.

We have been effective at it again taking on board capital from from the Middle East, from Europe and the United States and depulling that again into really strong names. On the US side, China's obviously seen a dearth of Western capital flowing into it, as probably is relatable and understandable under the kind of conditions that have been going.

On for the last five six years.

But we've found a way to find products that match kind of the requirements of different institutional limited partners depending on the type of capital explore controls they face.

What are you seeing in terms of Middle Eastern investors? I do feel like it's almost a new day in Washington when it comes to investments perhaps coming from that region of the world into the United States. What are you seeing and hearing only got about thirty seconds here.

They were always very overweight towards the West, but more so towards Western Europe.

I think they recognized today that's a.

No go and unattractive, and so a lot of them I bumped into a lot of them over the course of the past weekend who are wanting to scale up their investments in the United States, across energy, the energy necessary for this AI revolution, into defense technology, into things that will be benefiting from Trump's very business friendly, deregulatory and tax friendly regime.

All right, going to leave it on that note. Good to catch up with you. I'm so appreciate it.

Ben Harberg, He's founder and portfolio manager of Core Values Alpha, joining us on this Wednesday from Washington, DC.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern up on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Netflix shares at a record today app nine and a half percent as we speak. The company reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history. It was buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of squid game. Rich Greenfield is partner in a media technology analysts at Lightshed Partners. He joins us from New York City.

Rich.

There are good quarters and then there are good quarters such as this one. What specifically, in your view, led to this blowout quarter.

Look, it's all about investing in content, right, I mean, this is a company that has despite all of the competitive landscape. You know, you think about over the last five or six years, You've seen things like Disney Plus and Paramount Plus and Peacock, all of the you know, all of these big legacy media companies have ramped up streaming services.

They've each lost billions of dollars.

They're all now scaling back, you know, cutting back their spend, desperately trying to get to profitability and to eke out some you know, positive contribution from years of losing money in sort of a black hole. Meanwhile, Netflix has just continued to persevere build more content, create more content that consumers love, and really focus with a real global focus on making sure that there's constantly new content for you to watch.

And I think that focus on time spent.

You know, most of the other media companies out there that have streaming platforms. You know there's one show maybe a quarter that you watch once a week, get best for like forty five minutes, maybe even twenty or thirty minutes, Like they're not optimizing for time spent. Netflix never wants you leaving, Like literally, they are trying to put as much great new content on every single day, every week there's something fresh, like they don't want you leaving, and that time spent is obviously bearing fruit. You see it in how much share they have of TV time spent versus all of their peers, dwarfing the Disney pluses, the Hulus, the Peacocks, the Paramount pluses. But it's also giving them importantly the ability to raise price, because you see price going up pretty meaningfully yesterday, and I don't think there's gonna be any meaningful consumer pushback.

All right, So that's true, whether it's Squid Games or Beyonce or something I'm binging on which will remain I'm not gonna tell you what I I just.

Watched Black Doves. I just watched Black Doves. Like there's just lots of content from all over the world, right vice versa, Like there's you WWE Raw, which they took from you know, essentially what was on USA network now it's on Netflix. It's not just being watched domestically. I think the beauty of Netflix is it's being watched globally. It was the fourth largest programming last week. So if you look at sort of like how they're building global viewership, squid Game was the opposite, right, that was international programming coming to the US. Like, they're just doing an incredible job globalizing content and building audience.

Well, okay, so rich.

If it's so obvious, why aren't the others doing it? Or is it just that Netflix is doing it so well and they keep making so much money that their pockets just kind of are swelling with money that they can spend on even more content which the others don't kind of have.

I mean to help me understand.

I got a text message from an investor last night and they were just like, why does everyone just not copy them?

I don't understand.

Yeah, that's my question.

One is you know, and Netflix sort of hooked fun. You know, it was almost trolling in their press release if you're read through it, they were like, we don't have to worry about declining legacy businesses. Right like all of these traditional media companies, they're trying to balance right there, their core cash generation comes from linear television. That business is in decline. You know, you're seeing cord cutting getting worse. You're seeing ad dollars shifting from linear TV to streaming TV and even to mobile platforms, and so they're facing all of these pressures. And so it's very hard when your core business is in secular decline investing heavily in the future and telling investors don't worry about making money now, will make money in the future.

They tried that.

I think they ran out of leash pretty quickly because investors didn't believe there was a pot of gold at the end. And so the bottom line is, I think the answer to your question is they don't have the stomach to build a massively scaled global platform. And it really raises the question, if you're not going to try to win globally long term, why are you even in the business?

Taken Okay, so that's a great segue to my next question, Rich, is what is the future of those companies the Paramounts, the Disney's, the Comcast, the Warner brother Discoveries, the Foxes. How do they survive?

You know, maybe they focus.

You know, look, niche offerings have always existed in will always exist.

Maybe they're each more niche.

You know, maybe Disney Plus is a way to watch Disney movies primarily, you know, like a babysitter on demand for your kids. Maybe it isn't something that you're going to use every day. Obviously, they're integrating Hulu, they're integrating you know, Espn. They're launching ESPN Directing Consumer at Disney. I think they're trying to build a more comprehensive service, but it's hard. I mean, the price point is certainly different. You know, ESPN is going to be an expensive addition into the Disney Plus and Hulu bundle. Look, I'd say the one company that really has a shot at taking an entirely different approach, and I would really, you know, urge anyone listening to this think about Paramount.

You've got a new CEO coming in.

You know, you just saw I don't know if you watched Trump's press conferences yesterday, but you saw Larry Ellison on stage, you know, really front and center, you know, talking about massive investment. You saw what you know, the Ellison family just took control. You know, his son David has taken control with guidance ors in the process of taking control of Paramount. You know, there you have a forty one year old CEO of the combined company after the merger closes this year, theoretically someone with a twenty thirty forty year view and hopefully they're not going to be focusing on cutting investment in programming and focusing on near term free cash flow. They're going to literally build to win and take a very tech centric approach to media because I think what you're really asking is who has the stomach to think like a tech company in the sort of you know, the body of a media or legacy media company. It requires a very different skill set. You really have to focus. You know, if you think about what Apple, Amazon, Meta, like, TikTok like, what are all of those companies obsessing about time spent? That's what you need to win in streaming. You have to control time spent. YouTube does a great job of it. Netflix does a great job of it. Prime Video is doing a better and you see what they just did with the NFL and now the NBA is coming like there is a real focus on driving time spent.

That's what it takes.

Look, I think David Olson has a shot at really being able to do that. The question will be do you need consolidation over time? I think that's a question we hear a lot, whether it's WBD or you know, obviously Comcast has NBC Universal. Will we see consolidation, I think is sort of where you're heading. I don't think there's a lot of imminent consolidation because I think there's a lot in flux right now in the industry. But over time, I think that becomes the big question of if you're not trying to get to global scale and you don't think you can get to hundreds of millions of subscribers watching hours a.

Day, you cannot win in this game. You are going to lose.

I mean, doesn't that mean, then, Rich there has to be some consolidation or at some point, I mean we all just kind of talk about how we're getting kind of over contented, if you will. I mean, there's just so much coming out of us. There's only only so many hours in a day. I mean, at some point, don't some of them have to go to the wayside?

Yeah?

I mean, look, I think either they get scaled back into just smaller businesses. They you know, they may not be global competitors. I mean, look, you know Peacock is domestic only. Who lose domestic only? Paramount Plus is you know, trying to be global. Max is certainly the one that's you know, if you look at what David zaslows, and he's probably done the best job of trying to build out globally. But they need a lot more content, Like is it just you know, it feels like Max is increasingly just becoming HBO And maybe they rebranded. I mean that was one of our predictions for this year, that they just rebranded HBO.

And maybe it's just a more focused service.

Like right, Like just like Disney has its lane, HBO has its lane. Maybe these things are just smaller and playing a different game than right Netflix is playing.

Rich What do you know about that? What do you know about consumer behavior in this space? And I think of my own I mean, my reference point is me, and I would say that, you know, we subscribe to all of these things. We spend more money on this than we would on a cable bundle. It's almost like, you know, I spend more money on Spotify a year than I did when I was buying music, you know, fifteen twenty years ago on CDs. What what's twell twenty five or thirty years ago. I guess you'd say, got to get my dates?

Right?

What's that?

Like?

What's typical consumer behavior here?

I mean, look, certainly from a time spent standpoint, the two places that are you know, vacuuming up time spent on television screens. You know, the big screen in the home is YouTube and Netflix, and everybody else is you know, pretty far behind. I mean, Amazon's coming up and certainly doing better, but everybody else is still fairly small. And I think you know, this guy sort of goes to what is your core service? You know, who are gonna be the core services in the home?

Like when you get home on.

Thursday night, you know you've had a long work day. You're gonna turn on some entertainment. What are you turning on? Like, if you're not flipping through TikTok or you're not flipping through reels or YouTube or whatever on your phone, you're turning on the big screen device, where do you go first?

Like that moment of truth?

That's what Netflix has been winning, right, Like they are the place you turn to find something to watch.

Then you may go to one of the others unless.

You're specifically watching, like you know you want Last of Us on HBO because the new season is coming back, you may watch that one show. But where you sort of start your search behavior. I think Netflix has done an incredible job of owning that. Everybody else is sort of playing second fiddle to that, and that's their problem.

Hey, listen really quickly, got about twenty five thirty seconds. Yeah, is going to release an imax on Thanksgiving Day twenty twenty six and debut on Netflix on Christmas Day twenty twenty six. That strategy is that makes sense for Netflix to be doing that again, just got about thirty seconds.

Look, bottom line, there's certain directors that are still obsessed with theatrical I think if you look at Carry On, which is now bigger than Birdbox, one of the third biggest film ever on Netflix globally, that was the Jason Bateman film that came out a few weeks ago. Like, you can break a film globally and get into the zeitgeist globally on Netflix. But there are certain directors that are stuck in the theatrical world. And believe in that experience, and Netflix is trying something. We'll see whether the imax only experience creates an incremental excitement around the film. It'll be an interesting test. I do not think it is a core strategy in any way.

Well, always a good experience with you, Rich Greenfield, while partner media analysts and technology analyst at Lightshead Partner's joining us on this Wednesday road. How about you let me drive?

Oh no, no, no no, this is not a toy jug.

Honey, Please, how do the driving gravels? Let's mate, I want to drive.

It's a good question time.

This is the drive to the clothes.

Plums for me.

I think well.

Drier Yeladn on Bloomberg Radio.

All right, everybody, just about eighteen nineteen minutes to go until we wrap up the trade on this Wednesday, January twenty six.

You just heard Charlie and Bill Maloney.

Breaking down them and we've seen certainly a rally underway with the Nastak one hundred out performing on a percentage basis up about one point three percent.

So let's get to it with our drive to the close.

Guests back with us as Alexis Brown Roberts she's chief operating officer at Alexis Investment Partners. They've got about one hundred and eighty five million dollars in assets under management. She joins us from Montgomery, Texas.

Alexis good to have you back with us.

Tell us about the momentum that we are seeing now that we are starting now that Donald Trump is in the White House, We're starting to get some clues about maybe some of the initiatives that will come under him.

We talked a lot about AI today.

As a result, I'm just curious what your investors are doing making any changes if so, to their portfolio as a result.

Well, Hi, Carolyn tim thanks so much for having me on again. It's great to be talking with you all again. Yeah, it is great to see you know. We went through that December correction and pullback and we're back in that full bowl market swing and that op trend here and we've really been enjoying that increased growth and momentum. And we were actually modest dip buyers into that December pullback. We decided to buy into some profitable small caps, just continuing with our diversification, as that was an area that really got beaten down in that correction and was slightly underrepresented our portfolio, so we took that opportunity to go ahead and diversify. And so far investors seemed to be very happy with everything that's been going on with the Trump trade and just optimistic. And we are optimistic, especially near term, but do expect volatility as a lot of questions are still out there and continuing to be answered.

Is the volatility a result of potential policy such that we're continuing to learn more about such as tariffs? I mean, where else do you see the result of or is the source rather of volatility?

That definitely does help increase volatility, But really I think the volatility is coming from just the full valuation of this market. I mean, we hit our S and P six thousand target at the end of last year, and while we are looking to hopefully end the year between that sixty five hundred to sixty eight hundred range is what we're looking at, and who knows, potentially reaching seven thousand at some point, just with the fact that we are so fully valued and there are a lot of moving parts going on and uncertainty going on, we wouldn't be surprised if there is quite a bit of volatility even given a very positive year.

Hey, I answer, I do want to you.

Have a follow up telling you Carol's telling you.

I didn't want to jump on them. You know, Alex, this is one thing I wanted to ask you.

I mentioned that we're talking a lot about AI and this initiative that President Trump talked about started talking about yesterday, and we've been watching some of the names of companies that are expected to pony up maybe about one hundred billion right to start, but it could be a lot more money going forward. But we're seeing names like Oracle Soft Bank Armholdings all trade a lot higher. I am curious. Are some of your investors saying, hey, listen the story. I want exposure, you know, get me there? Are you hearing that.

We're definitely big fans of the AI boom and just the amount of productivity that we're hoping to get out of AI. We're lucky in the fact that our shareholder don't tend to be overly assertive in that stuff. I mean, they're definitely curious about it, but they tend to trust us to make the investment decisions. And when it comes to AI in particular, we do have exposure there we have our Apple or Microsoftware and Video or Google, and we do still like big tech. We still have that VUG and there for megacat growth and QQQ and all of that. But really what intrigues us the most about AI is the idea that other players are really going to benefit from the boost in productivity from AI. I mean, if you harken back to the late nineties and the innovation that came out of the Internet, which is really what the last big boom that people are really equating to AI was. What happened out of that was that a lot of other companies were able to boost out of that. So that's what we're most excited about. I mean, even if you look at last year, companies like Walmart and Home Depot, they were really able to benefit from AI and that boosted their earning.

So I'm wondering about equal weighted S and P five hundred versus the market cap weighted S and P five hundred. You prefer the equal weighted S and P five hundred.

Why is that we do.

Prefer the equal weighted S and P five hundred. A lot of that's because the cap weighted S and P five hundred is pretty much, very heavily in those seven mag seven stocks, and we do have plenty of exposure to there, but we'd rather have that tech exposure be through things like I mentioned, like the QQQ, the VUG, or even having exposure into certain tech companies that we like to overemphasize more and then getting actual exposure to the other four hundred and ninety three names through something more of an equal weight, especially as we're looking to diversify our portfolio within the context of believing that there may be some changing market leadership as we come through this and see more companies benefit not only from AI but also perhaps more of accommodative fed as we do expect them to continue to kind of neutralize interest rates as well.

We talked about a lot of the kind of large cap names, and I am also curious about small caps, which are now up about three point four percent this year, and I feel like for a long time we keep talking about it's time for the mid caps and the small caps to really maybe you know, for investors to make some movement into them. How are you where's that component and what is the role in a portfolio right now when it comes to small caps and or mid caps.

Yeah, we like small cabs and mid caps as part of a broadly diversified portfolio. So we did go ahead and add to profitable small caps, so S and P six hundred over something like a Russell two thousand. And the reason we chose to do that is, for one thing, we talked about Trump and tariffs and a domestic focus earlier, and small caps should benefit from that because they tend to be less affected by things going on for and they just have less exposure out there than they do domestically. Same thing, as interest rates come down and perhaps we get some M and A activity, they should benefit there as well. And so just as we are looking to diversify our portfolio again, we still like the tech, but we wanted to be able to have some exposure elsewhere, and we think that doing it through an S and P six hundred is a really good way to do that. We don't really want to try to be too cute with it and pick individual small cap names or again a Russell two thousand, where you're going to have exposure to unprofitable small caps because interest rates still are relatively high right now and there was a lot of stimulus back in the COVID days that are maybe waning out, and so some of the companies that are just on life support, you wouldn't want to have exposure there, but we do like Covidcapin and SMP.

Thank you all right, good to know and good to get some time with you. Alexis. Thanks Alexis Brown Roberts.

She's chief operating officer at Alexis Investment Partners. Joining us from Texas Montgomery, Texas on this Wednesday.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal