OpenAI Discusses Giving Altman 7% Stake in For-Profit Shift

Published Sep 26, 2024, 8:10 PM

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Technology Co-Host Ed Ludlow discusses the surprise departure of OpenAI Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati, the latest high-level exit from the high-flying artificial intelligence startup. Fortescue Executive Chairman and Founder Andrew Forrest talks about the mining company’s Climate Transition Plan. Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the Africa Development Bank and Bloomberg Television Chief Africa Correspondent Jennifer Zabasajja discuss AfDB's initiatives to transform Africa. And we Drive to the Close with Brooke May, Managing Partner at Evans May Wealth.
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We want to get to another story that was happening late Wednesday as well, and that has to do with one of the AI darlings.

Yeah.

Of course, we were talking yesterday about the departure of Chief Technology Officer Mira Morati, chief research officer Bob McGrew, and we've been hearing from Sam Altman from Open Ai as well, talking about executive departures at the startup being unrelated to restructuring that's happening at the company as it considers moving to a for profit structure. Bloomberg Today reporting that open Ai is discussing giving Sam Altman a seven percent equity stake in the company as part of that restructuring. Bring in co host of Bloomberg Technology, Ad Ludlow his Nor San Francisco Bureau for more on this. Hey, Ed, great to have you back on. I mean, let's try and put all these pieces together, right, Are the executive departures, as far as we know, linked to the restructuring that's being discussed at open Ai.

Yeah, we don't know. And Sam Altman, you know, fortunately walked in front of a camera twelve hours after the news broke and had every opportunity to explain it, and he said, no, that they're relating to the individuals involved, their personal lives and their professional lives and wanting to do something new. But I would say that, you know, sources were very clear that inside open ai, which is a really important technology company, right, there's a lot at stake here and the people that work there know that, and they saw what these people who decided to leave the company said, and internal slack channels and other comms tools were basically like what is going on? Like this is dodge, Like this is weird. But the long and short of it is, no, we do not know if they are linked.

You know, we talk about open Ai.

The only reason I feel like we are talking so much about open ai is when you go back almost two years, right, and that big investment by Microsoft that got us all talking about and focusing on this company. Having said that, should we assume they're a big investor. Should we assume that what's going on now kind of has some consultation for Microsoft or not necessarily.

Yeah, So this is actually the opportunity to clarify something that's really important. Microsoft is the single biggest investor into open ai at this stage, and at one time it held forty nine percent of the entity in which you could invest, but it probably is less than forty nine percent now because of the additional rounds of capital that open ai has raised. And if I make a Carol, I also would like to explain, like the structure of open ai as it stands, so its origin was not for profit, okay, and how it works right now is you have a nonprofit in this country America, a five oh one C three, a charity, and the for profit business is a subsidiary of that. And the way that open ai operates. And to answer your question is that it now has a board who do not hold any equity at all, and that board includes Sam Altman. So there are two things that I'm answering here. One, Microsoft owns a pretty big chunk of it, therefore doesn't have a board seat. Sam Altman has a board seat. But if he's to own equity. It raises a question about him continuing to be on the board. And the whole mechanism was put in place because they didn't want the vested interests of shareholders to be competing with the mission statement of the company, which is more around building artificial intelligence that benefits society at large. Goodness, what a mouthful.

But how would that change if they did move to the public benefit corporation status? How would that mission be altered apart from what you and colleagues have been reporting about, you know, potential equity stake and questions ever, Sam Oltman.

Yeah, again, I think it's really important state We just don't know. I was on your show yesterday. You may remember talking about Meta and there was a Reuter's report that open Ai was moving to a for profit model, was moving to a B corp. And what happened was I was driving home from Menlo Park. I almost got to the Golden Gate Bridge and a source phoned me and told me what was going on, but clarified that nothing legally has changed. Open ai is looking at all kinds of mechanisms, so they haven't actually taken any action. I think the Reuter's report probably went too far. But the bee corp instrument is interesting. At the very basics of a bee corp are that you are a for profit business. There are examples out there like Patagonia. I'm a Patagonia wearer. The apparel you may be familiar with it. But in the by laws of the company, the sort of lofty, big picture wildly goals and missions of the company are codified. They're written down so you can pursue profit, but you're also mandated to pursue those other goals as well because they're in the by laws of your company.

Well, first of all, thank you for reminding me you were the great reporter on Meta yesterday. I had forgotten and and I'm just gonna say, open up a every time we talk about it, I feel like it's just a great B school case study because of just these twists and turns, the ousting of Sam Altman, he's back like it's just unbelievable, and it ain't over, that's for sure. Ed Ludlow, you're the best co host of Bloomberg Technology joining us. Of course, you can catch it out Bloomberg TV eleven am Wall Street Time Monday through Friday.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple card Play and then Bright Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

All right, we are so looking forward to our next guest.

He's got a great vantage point in the global economy, global mining, climate change. Just this past week for Toscue, the world's fourth biggest iron ore miner, saying it will pay two point eight billion to replace two thirds of its fleet of hollage trucks and equipment in Western Australia with EV versions as it seeks to cut diesel consumption and meet ambitious emissions reduction targets.

There's a lot going on.

Yeah, they're sure is. And look we've got lots to talk to Andrew Forrest about it, joins us in studio, executive chairman and billionaire of Perth, Australia based Fordescu in ten this week during the UN General Assembly and Climate Week as well. Welcome to Bloomberg Business Week. How are you.

I'm on fire?

Thank you.

I'm just an exciting place right now. It certainly is. And look at a time that we're going to talk about your climate transition plan a moment, because that's a really interesting conversation. We've spent all week talking about China and the stimulus efforts being made there, and this is a story that's very central to your business as well. Imported iron ore used in roughly of eighty percent of Chinese steel production. Talk to us about the picture that you're seeing of the Chinese economy from your side of the business and the demand. How bad is it?

Oh?

Good is I mean?

Basically, you've had mining companies being fat, dumb and happy for a very long time because the anal price has been so good, so we're all heroes. But now, oh my god, the annual price is fallen, which means it's a lot better value, by the way, for the customer, and we have to work a lot harder as mine is. We have to work harder to actually make a margin. And that's a good thing. And when people think that one throe, they think, well, how do I lower my margins? Well, one third of my cost is diesel fuel, one third, right, one third? Imagine if we get rid of that.

Oh, by the way, we'd also.

Be going zero missions if we did that. So we've been working on this for years and years and years, and to give you an idea of how strong that demand is because people are looking hard at their operating costs. Now, we took years and years to get up at three hundred and sixty truck order. Now these are big trucks, right, You've got the hub caps starting at the roof here. And yesterday we signed another hundred and got walkins for another four hundred in our day. So from three or four years, three sixty for a day for another five hundred. So this is showing you that the mining industry is saying, hey, we've got to really look at operating costs. And FORESCU at middle is driven because it wanted to go zero missions, because we bloody will have to as a human race. But then we also have to prove that it's highly commercial. And what you're seeing happen yesterday and today is that going zero missions is highly commercial.

Just say you're not worried about China.

I mean, I've just come from China and I've just I mean, I get accused when I'm in Chinese, when I'm a China being very pro North American. When I'm in North America, I get accutes of being v being very pro China.

So no, but this is interesting. Look and love you both. The narrative is so negative and has been for so large.

The problem I'm afraid you're wrong.

You are wrong. I mean.

Here in North America you have a completely different system. You get lag effects and lowering interest rates and things like that, and it's it's macroeconomic policy and it works really well over a long time.

If they want to.

Hit the accelerator, hit the brakes, you know, you see the impact straight away. So they did a little bit of priming, not much. I got to say, as a percentage of GDP, you'd be hard to measure it. But that is kicked investments straight away. It's kicked the iron or price's kicked iron or demand.

It's a five percent growth nar a concern. It's going to happen.

Look, I'm completely not worried about it. And by the way, if it's four or six, I know big countries who'd love to get two or three. So you know, for our demand, I'm seeing the iore price come down and I'm saying good.

So Andrew, Basically, what you're saying is China's like, okay, if it still isn't enough.

We're going to do more.

Yeah.

And also, you know, I love North America because we're aligned with North America. I love China because they're actually leading the world on going green. I mean, they are way ahead of their own plan. And you know everyone, I mean North America and China kicking the hell out of each other is really bad for the overall human race. This geostrategic war between North America precipitate, I want to put it bluntly by North America. And look, China does all these things wrong too, And you can jump on their toes, but you jump on their toes in private. You don't do it by shouting at them from New York or Washington DC.

Well, does that then worry you about who's in the White House come November? Because there is people who have a softer touch and people who don't.

Fortescue has a policy that we deal with any elected leadership that usuckers want to put up right. So you know, if you want to put up Trump, I've got to say this Ukraine badge. If there's a deal cut which rewards an invader for invading a country which you've had as an enemy for eighty years and you go cut a deal and reward a bad guy for being bad. We're down in the Pacific and we're going to say, hold the phone. If you're going to trade Ukraine against Russia, where do we sit with North America? I mean, where do we sit? I mean, who do we now call a friend? If you if you're going to turn around and do that to Europe.

Right, I mean, you're obviously very plugged into geopolitical tensions because it's part of what affects your business as well. When you're thinking about global climate solutions, and you gave us some of the outlines of your plan there as well. There's some people that are going to think it's highly ironic that a mining company would be looking at a green transition.

I agree with them.

What you know, green iron or what is that is? That is? Do these things really make a difference when it comes to the bottom line of limiting climate change.

Let's start with three million tons of carbon docks, so I'm not going out in the atmosphere. I mean, let's just start there, and then then let's realize that no one's ever going to make green iron or green steel, which is ten percent of the carbon budget Now we're talking huge unless you start with green iron or so the fact we're going to green iron or within a few years means that we can then go to green iron or green steel. Now that's starting to have a massive impact because we do that economically, then the pollution which is currently suffered all over the world, particularly in China where they're where they put their steel mills on the outskirts of their cities central plan, but their cities grew so much bigger. So now the steel mills inside the city, we send them totally pollution free metal. Their pollution problem goes out the window.

So that there is a.

Really big impact on this slow, lethargic backward industry called mining, ironically leading the world to go green, and it's hitting where the pollution is worse, and it's not saying, oh, well, we've got to continue burning all in gas because there's such lovely people and we have to look after and we're saying, actually, oil and gas has got us into this manure. We've got to stop doing what we've always done if we want a different result, and switch off the oil and gas, and then we'll get a different result. And that's like green steel that's like green shipping.

Exactly though, is green iron ore? And what does it cost versus other iron ore? And is it cost competitive?

Yeh, No, it's going to cost less, man, because we can make it for less because we're not chopping through a billion a billion leaders of diesel, like nearly five hundred million gallons of diesel. We're not going to buy anymore, you know, because we're making it ourselves.

So is it cost competitive already?

Yeah?

Hell yeah, yeah yeah, that's the beauty of it, which is why I'm saying, listen, stop looking at gying green, stop looking at zero missions as Oh you're a really nice guy, what a lovely chief executive, what a lovely politician thinking of the kids, not himself. Actually, get out of your hole. This is a great investment. You should be doing this for your shareholders. And if you say you can't go green, well you're right. Get off the stage and let on someone smarter who can.

But why isn't everyone doing it? If the case is that simple.

And done it sooner?

Because everything starts somewhere, right, everything starts somewhere. I'm in the suit, you're you're getting started with a thread, mate. It turned out to be a suit. So we're the thread.

Talking about the conversations you're having here in New York as well. Are people getting the message? People are getting the message? Yeah, I mean, you know, we look at we look at the pullback on green, agender and so many parts of the world at the moment we see it reflected and polling and election results.

Is that playing that's an opportunity for us. Okay, that's a serious opportunity. I mean, we are pushing head going green as quickly as possible. We've got technology which can take the water in here side a stirly water bottle, turn it into the most powerful fuel the walls ever had, which is hydrogen. When we turn it from gas liquid to really serious energy except soackt water. And we're working out how to produce that. It's not pure we call it in dustrial huydgen, but a fraction of the cost. Where we've worked out already how to charge cars not in twenty two hours or even eight hours, but in twenty two seconds. Okay, And these are the fastest electric cars in the world, like Formula E winners all the time. We've worked out how to charge our huge trucks in twenty four minutes, and I've had your US generals say to me, hey, hey, you understand the US military can never go green. I said, why is that, man? They said, well, our tanks they're fifty sixty tons and they've got to go fifty mile. And I said, well, hang on, mate, our trucks are four hundred tons and they've got to go sixty mile an out they're green. And they've said, well, you know, shipping shipping our warships. Our warships are like one hundred meters long. Andrew I said, honestly, mate, we could put three of your warships on the back of our iron ore carriers. They're three hundred and thirty meters long, and we're sending them green so everyone can go green.

I am curious if you guys are going to be also building wind farms, solar forums right next farms, excuse me, right next to some of your mind to help supply green power. Like, what's is that part of the process.

Yeah, it is.

It is absolutely and will supply power us and power of others. Right now, we're operating a green grid. It's the first fully independent green grid in the world. It will be the largest of course, because it'll be producing enough power the size of small countries, and it'll be a full grid, but it'll be off the standard grid, and that means that we can put this all over the world.

I want to come back to hydrogen because it's been talked about for many years. It's been a lot of money put behind us yet to yield results. Where are the obstacles? How far away is it from being Some mean it's going to be widespread, available, and more heavily used as an energy for them.

Okay, the only thing stopping the production of green heighten North America. I mean, let's just remember that there's more people employed in the renewable energy sector in the fossil fuel old state of Texas than there are now is by fossil fuel. So everything is changing. What we're seeing now is the whole growth, this massive growth of green heighten green energy being held up by perfect getting in the road of the good in the IRA. And if we don't fix what a little thing called forty five V, which is where the fossil fuel sector's got these environmental independent lobbyists to say, hey, look we should have things like ali matching. Well, okay, that's perfect.

Parts of your own industry are working against this.

Yeah, I mean, but it's not my industry. It's the environmental lobby is paid ball by fossil fuel. It's the same same draw cards, same playbook as tobacco used. They get so called scientists and to say tobacco doesn't kill you, mate, So.

It's money again, it's politics and it's lobby.

Yeah, and we have to, Carol, we have to look straight through that and say to your legislators and your legislators, I've got to say, actually, we're not going to let perfect kill off the good. We No green hydrant is the answer. We will have weekly month matching or monthly matching. But hourly matching just means the person who came up with that's never driven or operated anything more complex than a bloody computer, not these one two three mile long plants which I have to operate.

So thirty seconds left?

Are you more optimistic after your time here in New York and talking with global leaders North American leaders, US leaders? Are you more pessimistic?

Just quickly?

No, I'm more optimistic. I'm more optimist.

Because they trust what someone does more than what someone says, and they can see we're doing it. They can see Australia's high sharehold return company ever is going fully green and there's got to be a reason for that. And they're making huge sales and they're profitable.

So we want to be smart and fun. When you came in, did we do it?

Yeah?

You're smart and funny.

I love such pressure.

Andrew Forrest, thank you so much, Executive chair of course at FORDESK.

You joining us right here on Bloomberg Business Week.

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We are very.

Global all this week here on Bloomberg Business Week, and we've had this week the opportunity to focus on economic issues in different regions of the world and how the changing climate is altering many countries trajectories.

Well.

The African Development Bank finances projects across the continent in areas including agriculture, energy, also the private sector development, and we know those African countries something we talk about a lot here at Bloomberg are among those most affected by climate change. So that is some of what we wanted to talk about here on Business Week.

Yeah, indeed to discuss that. We're joined in the Androxer Brokers studio by doctor i can win At, a senior who is the president of the African Development Bank. Thank you very much to see we've also got Blomberg Chief Africa correspondent Jennifer Sabassage with us in Studio two to join the conversation. Doctor Absina, Welcome to New York. Great to have here. You were here having conversations with global leaders for Climate Week and you and General Assembly, what are you trying to get out of this week?

Well, first and foremost is just to make sure Africa's issues on the top of the agenda, because when you talk about climate change, Africa only accounts for no more than three percent of emissions. But actually so for as just proportionately from a negative consequences, it loses five, seven to fifteen billion dollars a year and the current trend continues, that's going to rise to fifty billion dollars a year, but it's not getting the amount of financing that it needs.

You know, Africa needs roughly.

About two seventy seven billion dollars a year to tackle climate change, but it gets no more than thirty.

Billion dollars, so it's a big gap there.

So but most of what is needed there, it's really to adapt to climate change. It's not so much on mitigation, but it's adapting to climate change other things that I wanted to get out of. Most of this is actually how we tackle Africa's debate is because at the end of the day, you know, you can run up a heel if you're carrying a back back of sand, and so you can have development in which you have highly in deatded countries. And so we have to make sure that African countries facing a lot of challenges in terms of climate, in terms of also conflict, also in terms of high inflation and strength in fiscal space, but they have the space they need to be able to invest in education, health, water, sanitation, gales, education and all of those things. So dead climate for me, a very very very important part of my conversation here.

This week, and doctor Argerstina, I mean part of that.

I want to start with climate change, maybe because you have talked a lot about in particular the IMS special drawing rights and channeling more of those towards addressing climate change on the continent. Where is the progress on that? Did you make any progress this week while here in New York?

Well, actually, just to think about they specially doing rights at the IMF, you know when we started, everybody for well, actually that's what thinks you put on the balance sheet essentially as reserve assets of central But we felt that actually these assets were actually simply latent assets that I was convinced that we can actually do better in terms of seeing how we can turn those into assets that can lock a lot of capital through the motilateral development banks. And the model that we develop basically was, you know, to see, okay, if you actually reachannel the SDRs to us are strip or air rated financial institutions. That's actually a hybrid capital that we can use and say perpetuals in that stage on a balance sheet, so we can actually leverage now four times, it can even go to photo eight times. And so we're very delighted, myself and the president of Inter American Development Bank, we walk together very collaboratively to solve some of the technicals. So there are some technical issues about whether what's the reserve assets status of it, and if you want to collect it back, how can you get it back? So we had to deal with some technical issues. We solve all those technical issues, and I was delighted that the IMA board actually approved twenty billion dollars of SDRs to we do channel through and mo't lateral development banks.

That's hybrid capital. Now now the issue is now, how do we get that money? Yeah?

So to get all that money out, yeah, exactly. You know, we have to actually put together a group of five We need five SDR rich countries that will agree to rechannel that through the African Development Bank and the Inter American Development Bank. But also we have to make sure we have a group of others that are in Europe. For example, European countries can't do it because of restrictions by the European Central Bank on monetary policy outside of the EU and so but we set up a very nicht to structure, which is called Liquidity Support Agreement, in which they can just essentially guarantee those that have given it to you.

Okay, that's still allowed.

So that's where we are. We're making progress in terms of the countries. We're talking to them and I'm hoping that you know, by the time we do G twenty will have gone a long way in making sure that way.

Or will you actually have access to the funds?

Well, actually you know the long ways to get access to the funds, so which means there has to be agreement that that thing. It's not just easy just like can give it to you. Their legal things they have to go through in their country is to make sure that that gets done. So we we know that President Lula as the presidency of the G twenty, as I spoke at the event just yesterday, that the STRs used okay for hybrid capital and getting it out to us is stop on the agenda for G twenty.

This is something that I mean, we're deep in the weeds of international financial machinery here and hand the money to do public This is something you know. I was at the EU Africa sulmost two and a half years ago when this idea was sort of advanced to a level where the reallocation would be able to happen. The political will was there from under a manual macroan all the time. Is the political will still there to action this and to make sure that that transmission happens as quickly as possible.

I remember, there are two things we were talking about here.

That is the one in which you you know, there was a request to make sure that some amount of money actually given okay through the IMF. You know three is probably achieve reduction and growth, trust and residence and so saliability trust. So that's that's money that's been given to IMF. That's that's a different thing the one that I'm talking about, and that's going very well. I think they have probably one hundred billion dollars they're looking for of SDR. The one we're looking for is how the seas gets re channel through the multilateral development so we can actually leverage that.

You know.

The thing is that you know when you when the money goes to IMF. IMF is very very great. Crystal Nam sister has been mostly helpful. But you know, for us, it's a it's a wonderful thing. You know, every dollar becomes forth, it's good for you as a shareholder, it's good for a tax for us, and you don't lose all the money. And so the progress has been made is phenomenal. Progress been made. But I think we just have to tie the nots and make sure the money actually comes home and we can continue to do. I just tell you one thing that I can do. I take the case of, you know, our jad Bank. President of the World Bank and I go together during the Spring meeting and we said, look, I said, we still have six hundred million Africans that don't have access to electricity.

That doesn't make any sense.

You can't grow in the dark, you can industrialize in the dark, and you cannot be competitive without electricity.

So I said, we're going to have to deal with it.

And so we both agreed and we launched what's called Mission three hundred, which is to connect three hundred million Africans to electricity by twenty thirty. Now, universal access to electricity in Africa is going to require one ninety billion dollars, okay by year. Now here's where the SDR connection comes in. Because if you actually have fifty billion dollars of SBRs and you can leverage it at four times because they have rid capital for you, that means that problem is solved once and for all.

That is two hundred billion dollars at least to solve that problem.

So that's the connection that we are trying to make and President Lulan as President of the G twenty. It's also we've raised the issue also about he has something called the Global Alliance against Poverty and Hunger, Okay, and so it's the same thing. You know, you use this SVR as well a lock massive amount of capital to deal with all the things. We say, we have a Pact of the Future.

So do you hope you say think that within six months twelve months you have that capital or that you can move forward.

I believe that we will because I think that's the most difficult part. We've gone over that. So it's a question now of how we're going to use it and how we can get it out. So I think so yes, absolutely, Yeah.

Well, you know, one of the other things I'm just curus other parts of the world where you you know, look to access you know, partnerships money. You guys have been working with the Arab Bank for Economic Developments on some key projects. What can you tell us about further expansion there. We're also curious about, you know, the relationship with China and money coming in from China. What can you tell us in those those two aspects.

Yeah, you know, they are bank for Ecomic Development in Africa is a very great partner of the African Development Bank and we have joint projects that we do together.

We do more, Oh yeah, we will do more.

And we walk in education and water, in sanitation, in agriculture and infrastructure and so on, and so that you're celebrated at fifture down in Vastary. I was one of the keynote speakers to speak there. They've also invested in one of the things that we up call it Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa, which is if they could that we just put together to mobilize ten billion dollars of private capital going into greening the infrastructure space, greening the gribbing, the green transport, green hydrogen, green Amumonia and also making sure that we can basically have you know, climate resilient infrastructure all across Africa. So we have a lot together. We've done, you know, together about almost eight hundred and thirty five million dollars of joint projects in the last seven years and we've putting six hundred million dollars into that. So we have great partners and I look forward to us doing more together.

What about China, you know, over the years we've talked about the investments China has done some of it.

You know, they're concerned about their access.

Certainly to raw materials, basic minerals and so on to what can you tell us on that front?

Well, I think, you know, China invests quite a lot in infrastructure in Africa, and people get to ask me a lot of questions about that, you know, but the question really is that you know, Africa, Africa's infrastructure gap is so massive. You know, Africa needs at least sixty two one of an eight billion dollars a year. You know, not to talk of different now, not to talk of even the challenges you have.

You know, you're doing.

The infrastructure and all of a suddenly you have all these cyclones and hurricanes and all these things that are happening that's actually setting you back, right and so, but I think that what has happened is on the infrastructure space. What I just know more generally is a lot being done is by governments. And I don't think that infrastructure shill always be carried by governments. I think you need to have a lot more private capital moving into infrastructure. I think you have to make sure that the debt bodings from infrastructure are reduced. I also think it is very very important to make sure that the infrastructure being done in any case should be infrastructure that you can recycling. Know that words governments, if you've actually taken a lot of loans to do infrastructure, why not just do asset recycling basically, just recycle that into private cycle and then free or more capital to be able to do more. And so that's how I look at it. And and I think that for US a African development, in the last seven years or so, we've put in more than fifty five fifty five billion dollars into Africa.

We are the largest by far.

What's large roal financial institution investing in infrastructure.

When you talk to international investors, doctor Odistina, I know you were meeting with a few of them while you were here this week. I mean, is what is their concern? Because we hear a lot about risk in investing potentially in a lot of these infrastructure projects that you're talking about. I mean, what is it that international investors are hoping to see in order to penetrate more into more of these markets.

Yeah, you know, if you take a look at it, we don't get that much of private capital moving into infrastructure right in Africa. But the issue is people talk about risk, well, life is about risk return. People forget about the return part of that, and so it's a risk return world. And I take a look at Africa and I don't think Africa is risk here than any other parts of the world. Don't believe me, Just believe the data that was an assessment that was done by Moody's analytics would look that the cumulative losses on infrastructure are financing globally, not just in Africa. And what they find they look at fourteen years of non performing loans and debt and they found that in Africa the non performing loans was one point nine percent, in North America it was six point six percent, in Latin America it was about ten percent, and you know, Eastern Europe about twelve point four percent, and Western Asia mo Albost four point five percent. So Africa is not as risky as people say. Perception is not reality.

How do we change that perception?

Because I think you've got this really smart global audience right now, and I think we think of emerging world and we think, oh, yeah, Africa, what is what's the message you would like to get out to the audience who's listening right now.

Well, first and foremost is that you know the fact that I said, you know it's about risk return. What doesn't mean they are no risk, you know. So first and foremost is that we have the vehicles to do rest those things. So we have project risk, market risk, and whether there are also political risk insurance that we can actually provide the fact the African.

Development and say we have a little political rest.

Yeah, yeah, we can, we can do there.

So I'll stay with within my lane. But but but but we're trying to put all of our instruments, so partial risk guarantee instruments, partial credit guarantee instruments that we do for counterparties with our government private sector. We're trying to put all that together into what we call an African Insurance and Guarantee Agency. So so so private sector needing those risk instruments don't have to run in every everywhere to lower their transaction costs to do it. And that would be a game changer because we also provide insurance against equity investments. If we provide insurance for you, when you actually also have political insurance and insure you against climate climate sharks. And the last thing I'll say about this particulating is just that when investors are looking to invest, they're asking the question, were the bankablele projects?

Right?

You have to be able to have a whole series of bankable projects, and we're doing very well on that.

We have. For example, an institution that.

I actually share is bo It's called Africa fifty is a private equity vehicle that has about now one point one billion dollars and portfolios of eight billion dollars on infrastructure assets. And basically what it does, it's a part of a company is to it's called Project development company and so you developed bank abook projects that it can sell, right, it doesn't matter what it is. So we're trying to make project development a business issue, not just the development.

Issue, the financial the private sector involvement.

Right, that's right, that's right.

And the last now I just say about investing in infrastructure, it's important of local currency financing. You know, we talk about debt just now, but if you actually look at the assets that people are investing in, the revenue streams are going to becoming in local currencies and the currencies are actually depreciating very much. So Locot currency bonds are very going to be very important for financing that and also synthetic local currency instruments are going to be there and as well as you know, we at the bank, we support financial institutions in Africa that actually learn in local currency. But we take the shu ensure you, We give you the risk, you'll lend it and we pay. We'll be able to risk ourselves.

Right, we're seeing a lot of that volatility with currencies all over the continent. Doctor Ardisina, we were just talking briefly about how this is potentially this is your last un ga as president of the African Development Bank. I wonder how you think about your time in office over the past decade or so. You talked about how it the bank looks a lot differently than how you inherited it. I mean, how would you assess it?

Well, first and forms it is the greater owner of my life to be asked by shareholders. You know, we've got any one shareholders to go and actually you have the resources, you have the confidence, you have the support, and guess what, go change the continent of my birth. And that's not for me a job, that is a mission I take it as a mission and so that's that's how I look at it every single day. Now, look at what has happened to the bank since we actually started. You know, for example, you know when we started, I said that we'll have to have a clarity about how the bank tackles issues.

Day to day issues of people.

People shouldn't really look you know, you have African Development Bank. The issue for me is not just the bank. We don't how to run the bank is the issue is the development part, right, And so we actually set out to actually say five priorities for Africa. Light of empower Africa, universal access to electricity, feed Africa, inte great Africa, infrastructure wise industrialized Africa so Africa can be competitive with global value chains, okay, and increase his share of global manufacturing. And then of course improved the quality of life of the people of Africa the things that we all care about, water, sanitation, education, e skillits job for young people and all of that. So we in the last time, since last seven years, that work has impacted on more than four hundred million people. The second is what we've done in terms of raising more capital for the bank. When I was elected president. First at the bank. Quite first term, the capital of the bank was ninety three billion dollars. Today the capital of the bank is nine three hundred and eighteen billion dollars franks.

And last year, last year just one point.

Last year, the African Development Bank was ranked as the best mortalized for a financialite institution in the world.

And last year and this year we were.

Ranked also as the most transporting financialite institution in the world.

So I think that you know, we've done pretty well.

I think my staff I've been fantastic, but most importantly, my shareholders have just been phenomenal. When I was re elected, I was re elected with one hundred percent of the votes, so which was fantastic.

Well, it's certainly a part of the world that we focus on so much. Gend knows this as she spent so much time on it as well. Doctor Adisina, thank you so much. Thank you for finding time for us. Jens Abazagia, thank you as well for joining us and on this conversation.

That's going to do it.

Of course, the president of the Africa Development Bank, a brother Marco.

The journal Now about you let me drive no no, no, no, please, honey, please gravel I want to.

It's a good question.

This is the Drive to the Clone done well.

On Bloomberg radios.

All right, we've got just eighteen minutes to go for the Thursday trading session.

Charlie breaking down the numbers.

We're kind of bouncing around a little bit off our best levels of the session. When you look at all of the major equity averages, we're wondering whether or not we see another record on the S and P five hundred didn't happen yesterday, but could it possibly happen today? So let's get to it with the markets. It does feel like we're almost in this. Do you guys ever feel that like over London? Like sometimes we're going from FED to FED meeting yea, or we're going from earning season to earning season.

Yeah, basically it's like and this is we're in the in between.

It's exactly right. We're just kind of waiting for some direction.

Let's see what Brooke May has to say about all of it. She's managing partner at the independent advisory firm Evans May Wealth. They've got one point four billion in assets under management. She joins us from Carmel Indiana. Is it Carmel or caramel.

It's caramel caramel.

Okay, I had a feeling I might have said it wrong.

You're not alone having been to Carmel in California, But hey, tell us about what's top of mind for folks in that part of the world. I love it when we talk to people that aren't necessarily on one of the major costs, but tell us what's top of mind when it comes to the economy, when it comes to the investing environment.

Just kind of set the scene for us.

Yeah, you know, right now, clients are concerned about the elevated levels in the market. When you ask our investors, they feel pretty good about their personal situation. However, they're concerned about the broad economy, and so as we navigate that, you know, we're looking at earnings and we're trying to figure out what's the right level for the market to be trading at. Our urine price target was fifty six hundred to fifty eight hundred, and we're there a little earlier than expected, but we think the market could go higher. When you look at the amount of cash on the sidelines, there's about six trillion sitting in cash and money markets. While we don't think all of that would flow back into the market. About one point trillion went into markets in twenty twenty three alone. So if people didn't buy corporate bonds at buy percent a year ago, are they going to buy them at three and a half percent. We think that could be another tailwind in addition to earnings growth.

So I mean, what's going to motivate that money off the sidelines?

Though? I mean, if.

We're looking at the SMP potentially heading for a forty second records closed this year, I mean, what what's going to do better that's going to motivate that money out of cash?

Well, I think that they'll be pushed out by lower money market rates and looking for higher earning alternatives. And while they might not get that in the very near term, over time, they're going to make more inequities than they would sitting in a money marketer in cash.

All right, So then you know, having said that, you know, someone comes to you with some new investment money, where do they put it?

In your views?

And it is you know, Steph and I kind of kicked it off saying we're in this interesting, interesting, you know time period. Right, we just got through a major FED meeting. We wait for the next one. We're getting ready for earnings to really kick off. So do you say, wait and hold, we've got elections just around the corner.

What do you say, we're dollar cost averaging over the next year. For new money, our clients who are invested, we're staying invested. It's difficult to time the market, but at these elevated levels, and the fact that when you look at earnings relative to where the market is, you know, we feel like we're fully priced in right now, so we're not getting out of the market. But for new money, we're dollar cost averaging in and we're doing it over the next year.

When we're thinking about you know, earning season and the sort of signals we're going to start getting from the big companies now about what comes towards the end of the year. What are the key things that you're watching out for. Where are you digging into the detail.

We're looking at revenues. You know, companies in this challenging environment have been able to maintain their profit margins. It's been impressive. But at this point, if we see the value trade where people are looking more for value, there there's some compression there, and so we want to see companies grow the revenues. When we look at this last earning season, seventy nine percent of companies beat on earnings, which is well above the historical average, but only sixty percent of companies beat on revenue. So clearly there's some concern there and that's one of the factors that we're going to be looking at going forward.

Do you like big tech still though we do?

We do.

We also like the broad market though. When you look at going into twenty twenty four, the earnings growth expectation for big tech was twenty eight percent, and the other four hundred and ninety three names earnings were only expected to be up about seven percent. Going into twenty twenty five, we think big tech earnings will be up seventeen to eighteen percent, but the rest of the market to be up about thirteen percent, So we're seeing a broadening in participation. Corporate earnings are healthy right now, and when you talk to CEOs, their outlook is stable. They think that wages will be up a little over three percent over the next year. They think that hiring will be stable. And when you listen to those earnings calls, the word inflation was only mentioned about on about fifty percent of the time, so we think that really the CEO sentiment is relatively stable, and they're the ones that are doing the hiring and firing.

What about those companies for the economy one of those companies that are most exposed to the consumer as well, because I mean, there was a time when we were a little bit worried about some of the credit card data and a couple of secmdals in the page book about you know, some consumer bumps to come. They haven't really materialized. Yes, what's your view?

I agree, you know, Unfortunately there's a bifurcation right now though in the environment where lower income households are really being squeezed. However, Middle America and really the high end consumer haven't struggled nearly as much. They're looking at their four one K balances and they're at all time highs. They feel good about the value in their house and so really it's a tale of really two cities. When we look at default rates, for example, it's in the subprime area, specifically mostly in low income. So there are pockets of the economy that are struggling, but when you look at the broad economy, it's relatively healthy. Unemployments at four point two percent. Granted, that's well above the sub three point nine percent we saw for two years, but when you compare it to an historical average, it's really low and we don't see it ticking up much more. With FED rate cuts coming, that's going to bode well and we think that unemployment is going to be relatively stable.

Hey, Brooke, just got about forty five seconds left here. One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg is an exclusive. It's about City Group and Apollo Global Management teaming up in the fast growing credit private market. They're going to work together on twenty five billion dollars worth of deals over the next five years.

Private credit, private credit.

You are dealing with I'm assuming higher or high net worth individuals. How much do they want to be in kind of the alterative investment space. And again, just got about thirty seconds left here.

Yeah, it's a new entry point for us. Over the last few years, private credit has become a buzzword and most of the mutual fund and investment firms that we're talking to are talking to us about private credit. So there's growing demand there. Yields are very attractive and whenever the economy is this strong, the DeVault risk isn't. Isn't what it would be in a struggling economy.

All right, Got to leave it on that note. Listen so appreciate it, take care, enjoy the rest of the week. Brook May, Managing partner at Evans Maywelthyre and independent advisory firm. They've got one point four billion in assets.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. I'll a little Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you can get your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminale