Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

Well, we do not want to get ahead of ourselves to be there. It is smart to be researching what a Kamala white House might be like and to be thinking about the policies that could impact every aspect of our world based on the outcome of that US presidential race. On that race, the vice president now likely, it seems like there's a thing that's.

Well, we do not want to get ahead of ourselves to be there. It is smart to be researching what a Kamala white House might be like and to be thinking about the policies that could impact every aspect of our world based on the outcome of that US presidential race. On that race, the vice president now likely, it seems like there's a thing that's.

Fair to say likely. I think it's fair to say it's I mean more and more likely whoever endorsesus here next right, Yeah.

Fair to say likely. I think it's fair to say it's I mean more and more likely whoever endorsesus here next right, Yeah.

We're talking about Kamala Harris expected to be the Democratic presidential candidate. We're not quite there, but it does look like it's pointing in that direction. Earlier today at a White House events, staying mum about it all except when it comes to President Biden.

We're talking about Kamala Harris expected to be the Democratic presidential candidate. We're not quite there, but it does look like it's pointing in that direction. Earlier today at a White House events, staying mum about it all except when it comes to President Biden.

And I am first hand witness that every day our President Joe Biden fights for the American people and we are deeply, deeply grateful for his service to our nation.

And I am first hand witness that every day our President Joe Biden fights for the American people and we are deeply, deeply grateful for his service to our nation.

That's Vice President Kamala Harris earlier today from the White House. Many sectors, from banks to evs to big tech firms likely will face a status quo policy environment under Vice President Kamala Harris if she were to win the presidential election in November. So Wright writes Bloomberg's Nathan Dean, He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior government analyst, and he joins us from our Washington d C Bureau. Nathan, good to see you this afternoon. So the first question is what might a Kamala Harris White House an administration mean when it comes to policies and changes from what we saw or are seeing with a Biden administration at Biden White House.

That's Vice President Kamala Harris earlier today from the White House. Many sectors, from banks to evs to big tech firms likely will face a status quo policy environment under Vice President Kamala Harris if she were to win the presidential election in November. So Wright writes Bloomberg's Nathan Dean, He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior government analyst, and he joins us from our Washington d C Bureau. Nathan, good to see you this afternoon. So the first question is what might a Kamala Harris White House an administration mean when it comes to policies and changes from what we saw or are seeing with a Biden administration at Biden White House.

Yeah, so that's a great question. You know, we're telling clients this this election was really about three things. The first was tariffs and his taxes, and the third is these sector impacts. Now, when it comes to tariffs, you know, you have this binary choice between President Trump, who has said sixty percent tariffs on items from China, but Kamala Harris, as a senator was somewhat skeptical of the Canadian US Mexico Agreement and also the Trans Pacific Partnership, and largely due to climate change concerns, So there's a little bit of difference between her and Biden on tariffs. When it comes to taxes, well, you know, we actually view that President Biden moved closer to Kamala Harris's positions on taxes than she did to his when she became or when he became president. So I would anticipate a continued focus on lower to middle income consumers because remember the Trump Barrack tax cuts expired the tail end of twenty twenty five, and there's can be a lot of tax debate on how to keep those going forward, which I think is what Kamala Harris would want to do. And then when it comes to the sector impacts, when it comes to banks, EVS, TMT, technology, anti trust concerns, it's largely status quo because a lot of the regulatory leadership that President Biden has in place right now, we think is very indicative of what a Kamalas Harris presidency would look like. And because a lot of those proposals are artery underway the first two years of her administration if she was elected I think would be finalization of those proposals.

Yeah, so that's a great question. You know, we're telling clients this this election was really about three things. The first was tariffs and his taxes, and the third is these sector impacts. Now, when it comes to tariffs, you know, you have this binary choice between President Trump, who has said sixty percent tariffs on items from China, but Kamala Harris, as a senator was somewhat skeptical of the Canadian US Mexico Agreement and also the Trans Pacific Partnership, and largely due to climate change concerns, So there's a little bit of difference between her and Biden on tariffs. When it comes to taxes, well, you know, we actually view that President Biden moved closer to Kamala Harris's positions on taxes than she did to his when she became or when he became president. So I would anticipate a continued focus on lower to middle income consumers because remember the Trump Barrack tax cuts expired the tail end of twenty twenty five, and there's can be a lot of tax debate on how to keep those going forward, which I think is what Kamala Harris would want to do. And then when it comes to the sector impacts, when it comes to banks, EVS, TMT, technology, anti trust concerns, it's largely status quo because a lot of the regulatory leadership that President Biden has in place right now, we think is very indicative of what a Kamalas Harris presidency would look like. And because a lot of those proposals are artery underway the first two years of her administration if she was elected I think would be finalization of those proposals.

To be fair, I mean, doesn't it make a difference in terms of what happens in Congress too? Right when we think about policy changes.

To be fair, I mean, doesn't it make a difference in terms of what happens in Congress too? Right when we think about policy changes.

Absolutely, I mean when it comes to that, it's essentially that's in the tax debate. It's called reconciliation. If the Republicans or the Democrats, let's say the Democrats have a great night, if they have the House, the Senate, and the presidency, you can use this process called reconciliation to essentially do what you will on tax reform. This is how the Trump ara of tax cuts got through. This is how Obamacare got through, this is how the Inflation Reduction Act gets through. But if you have a gridlock Congress, then obviously that type of broad fiscal spending, other injection into the economy, or a tax incenter or a tax cut aspect someone becomes narrowed. And so if you have a gridlock Congress, you have a lot of these grandiose ideas out there, but you are going to need Republican or bipartisan or Democratic support whoever is the president to get that through. And as a result, it's more nuance changes. Nuance sector impacts and so forth, rather than Grandio's plans.

Absolutely, I mean when it comes to that, it's essentially that's in the tax debate. It's called reconciliation. If the Republicans or the Democrats, let's say the Democrats have a great night, if they have the House, the Senate, and the presidency, you can use this process called reconciliation to essentially do what you will on tax reform. This is how the Trump ara of tax cuts got through. This is how Obamacare got through, this is how the Inflation Reduction Act gets through. But if you have a gridlock Congress, then obviously that type of broad fiscal spending, other injection into the economy, or a tax incenter or a tax cut aspect someone becomes narrowed. And so if you have a gridlock Congress, you have a lot of these grandiose ideas out there, but you are going to need Republican or bipartisan or Democratic support whoever is the president to get that through. And as a result, it's more nuance changes. Nuance sector impacts and so forth, rather than Grandio's plans.

I do wonder Nathan at this point. Listen, it's twenty four hours roughly right since we got the news of President Biden yesterday saying that he wasn't going to run for a second term. Having said that, actually, folks, we're going to head to DC, and that we have House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries making some comments. Let's listen in well.

I do wonder Nathan at this point. Listen, it's twenty four hours roughly right since we got the news of President Biden yesterday saying that he wasn't going to run for a second term. Having said that, actually, folks, we're going to head to DC, and that we have House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries making some comments. Let's listen in well.

President Biden and Vice President Harris first took office on January twentieth of twenty twenty one. The Biden Harris team assumed a public health crisis, an economic crisis, and a democracy crisis in the immediate aftermath of January sixth. At the same time, and thanks to the leadership of President Joe Biden and his partnership with Vice President Kamala Harris, dignity and decency and a democratic way of life was restored to the Oval Office and sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. We owe a debt of gratitude to President Biden for his tremendous leadership, and I'm also thankful for the incredible partnership that he has had for the last three and a half years with Vice President Kamala Harris.

President Biden and Vice President Harris first took office on January twentieth of twenty twenty one. The Biden Harris team assumed a public health crisis, an economic crisis, and a democracy crisis in the immediate aftermath of January sixth. At the same time, and thanks to the leadership of President Joe Biden and his partnership with Vice President Kamala Harris, dignity and decency and a democratic way of life was restored to the Oval Office and sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. We owe a debt of gratitude to President Biden for his tremendous leadership, and I'm also thankful for the incredible partnership that he has had for the last three and a half years with Vice President Kamala Harris.

First, will you endorse Kamala Harris? And then I have one other question for you.

First, will you endorse Kamala Harris? And then I have one other question for you.

Well, Leadership and I are scheduled to meet with Vice President Harris shortly. The House came back into session today, the Senate does not come back into session tomorrow. I'm excited, uh for that meeting. And let me say this that Vice President Kamala Harris has excited the community, she's excited the House Democratic Caucus, and she's exciting the country. And so I'm looking forward to sitting down with her in person in short order with Leader Schumer, and we'll have more to say about the path forward as soon as that meeting.

Well, Leadership and I are scheduled to meet with Vice President Harris shortly. The House came back into session today, the Senate does not come back into session tomorrow. I'm excited, uh for that meeting. And let me say this that Vice President Kamala Harris has excited the community, she's excited the House Democratic Caucus, and she's exciting the country. And so I'm looking forward to sitting down with her in person in short order with Leader Schumer, and we'll have more to say about the path forward as soon as that meeting.

All right, everybody, you have been listening to. House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffrey is up there on Capitol Hill making some brief comments. Did mention that leadership is expected to the Democratic leadership to meet with Vice President Harris shortly and we'll have more to say after that meeting. But also has talked about the Vice President being kind of exciting the community, the Democratic Caucus specifically, and the country, so making some comments and also of course making some comments also about the Republicans.

All right, everybody, you have been listening to. House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffrey is up there on Capitol Hill making some brief comments. Did mention that leadership is expected to the Democratic leadership to meet with Vice President Harris shortly and we'll have more to say after that meeting. But also has talked about the Vice President being kind of exciting the community, the Democratic Caucus specifically, and the country, so making some comments and also of course making some comments also about the Republicans.

Yeah, he did say that Republicans are having a quote meltdown. He called them extreme maga. Republican policies are unpopular. He mentioned Project twenty twenty five being unpopular, and he said that all we want to do is have a debate about moving the country forward.

Yeah, he did say that Republicans are having a quote meltdown. He called them extreme maga. Republican policies are unpopular. He mentioned Project twenty twenty five being unpopular, and he said that all we want to do is have a debate about moving the country forward.

All right, So we will await, of course, his meeting with the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and of course with the Vice President Kamala Harris, and look for some more comments after that. In the meantime, let's get back to Bloomberg. Nathan Dean Bloomberg Intelligence senior government analyst, still with us from our DC bureau. Hey, Nathan, like you, like all of us, we continue to listen to various comments, certainly right now from the Democratic Party. How do you kind of parse through what's being said politically as you try to figure out what might be impacting policy, rules, regulations, things that are important to the Bloomberg audience right now?

All right, So we will await, of course, his meeting with the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and of course with the Vice President Kamala Harris, and look for some more comments after that. In the meantime, let's get back to Bloomberg. Nathan Dean Bloomberg Intelligence senior government analyst, still with us from our DC bureau. Hey, Nathan, like you, like all of us, we continue to listen to various comments, certainly right now from the Democratic Party. How do you kind of parse through what's being said politically as you try to figure out what might be impacting policy, rules, regulations, things that are important to the Bloomberg audience right now?

Yeah, so, you know, when President Trump announces his intentions, a lot of it is rolling back President Biden era regulations or legislative achievements, and so Representative Jeffries right there just mentioned the Inflation Reduction Act, which piqued Maya interest because you know, the Inflation Reduction Act is one of those big, grandiose pieces of legislation that is not only applicable to healthcare and tax reform, but also applicable to the clean energy sector. So my colleague Rob Barnett actually put out a note this morning talking about what Kamala Harris would do to the Inflation Reduction Act and essentially not only would she support it, potentially which she would go back and even boost it. So, you know, the renewable industry is something that we've been looking at in terms of a high catalyst event with the election, because if President Trump comes in, you have this tendency that you may be able to roll back the IRA, tweak it, adjust it, amend a lot of the clean energy cap back spending that you know, these companies like for Solar have planned over the next few years. But Kamala Harris on the other side, would actually go and enhance it and boost it. So, you know, the a lot of politics and the you know, the a lot of headlines getting thrown around there, but we ultimately just have to ask, you know, these statements come out, these questions come out, you know, how do you get it through Washington.

Yeah, so, you know, when President Trump announces his intentions, a lot of it is rolling back President Biden era regulations or legislative achievements, and so Representative Jeffries right there just mentioned the Inflation Reduction Act, which piqued Maya interest because you know, the Inflation Reduction Act is one of those big, grandiose pieces of legislation that is not only applicable to healthcare and tax reform, but also applicable to the clean energy sector. So my colleague Rob Barnett actually put out a note this morning talking about what Kamala Harris would do to the Inflation Reduction Act and essentially not only would she support it, potentially which she would go back and even boost it. So, you know, the renewable industry is something that we've been looking at in terms of a high catalyst event with the election, because if President Trump comes in, you have this tendency that you may be able to roll back the IRA, tweak it, adjust it, amend a lot of the clean energy cap back spending that you know, these companies like for Solar have planned over the next few years. But Kamala Harris on the other side, would actually go and enhance it and boost it. So, you know, the a lot of politics and the you know, the a lot of headlines getting thrown around there, but we ultimately just have to ask, you know, these statements come out, these questions come out, you know, how do you get it through Washington.

Nathan, what about when it comes to energy, for example, and what happens to energy companies under a Kamala Harris administration versus a President Trump administration.

Nathan, what about when it comes to energy, for example, and what happens to energy companies under a Kamala Harris administration versus a President Trump administration.

Yeah, so you know, the thing here is we often tell our folks, our client to remember that there are three ways that things get through Washington versus legislation. You don't need to be in me to know that dridlock happens in Congress all the time. The second is regulation. There's a lot of rules coming out from the EPA, for example, but regulation is a little bit different because regulation, yes, you can bypass through the opposite party, but you have to use this process called the Administrative Procedures Act, which takes time. If President Trump were to win, you're looking at probably two to three years to roll back some of the Biden error regulations. That's also notwithstanding that maybe the courts are going to overturn you in light of some of recent Supreme Court actions. But for the energy sector in particular, I would stress the third way, which is executive orders. Now President Trump comes in expect a lot of executive orders. Most of them are symbolic in nature. There are fancy ways of the president picking up the phone and saying I direct my agencies to do these regulatory rulemakings. But there's always this headline risk or that other fifteen percent, which is like the L and G pause and so forth, where the power the presidency is more powerful. So the energy sector does have some aspect that falls into that executive order bucket. I think the risk is there if President Trump wins, if President are sorry, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, it's more of a continuation in status quo.

Yeah, so you know, the thing here is we often tell our folks, our client to remember that there are three ways that things get through Washington versus legislation. You don't need to be in me to know that dridlock happens in Congress all the time. The second is regulation. There's a lot of rules coming out from the EPA, for example, but regulation is a little bit different because regulation, yes, you can bypass through the opposite party, but you have to use this process called the Administrative Procedures Act, which takes time. If President Trump were to win, you're looking at probably two to three years to roll back some of the Biden error regulations. That's also notwithstanding that maybe the courts are going to overturn you in light of some of recent Supreme Court actions. But for the energy sector in particular, I would stress the third way, which is executive orders. Now President Trump comes in expect a lot of executive orders. Most of them are symbolic in nature. There are fancy ways of the president picking up the phone and saying I direct my agencies to do these regulatory rulemakings. But there's always this headline risk or that other fifteen percent, which is like the L and G pause and so forth, where the power the presidency is more powerful. So the energy sector does have some aspect that falls into that executive order bucket. I think the risk is there if President Trump wins, if President are sorry, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, it's more of a continuation in status quo.

Hey, to be fair, it is a race still expected to be a very close race, whoever it ultimately is come November. You, as a policy analyst, are I'm assuming continuing to look at both sides and both outcomes, whether it's a Republican win or a Democratic win.

Hey, to be fair, it is a race still expected to be a very close race, whoever it ultimately is come November. You, as a policy analyst, are I'm assuming continuing to look at both sides and both outcomes, whether it's a Republican win or a Democratic win.

That's correct. I mean the way to do this is scenario analysis, and so we have on our for example, we have this matrix on the terminal called the bi Election Matrix, and you can look at the Trump scenario versus the Democratic scenario, because you know, Vice President Kamala Harris is not the nominee yet. If she is, the nominee, will be the Harris scenario. But in connecting this scenario analysis, you have to look at what the makeup of Congress is. Like we mentioned before, if it's reconciliation, well President Trump could potentially repeal a good portion of the IRA without Democrats, you know, any type of opposition. If there is gridlock, it means legislation odds actually come down. So as you triend to think about the the election and how you prepare for it as an investor, think of this scenario analysis process and procedure, because whether it's legislation, regulation, or executive order, generally there's a process associated with this, and generally you do get about six, nine, twelve months before the actual final catalyst takes place, and so you can actually then plan accordingly to that.

That's correct. I mean the way to do this is scenario analysis, and so we have on our for example, we have this matrix on the terminal called the bi Election Matrix, and you can look at the Trump scenario versus the Democratic scenario, because you know, Vice President Kamala Harris is not the nominee yet. If she is, the nominee, will be the Harris scenario. But in connecting this scenario analysis, you have to look at what the makeup of Congress is. Like we mentioned before, if it's reconciliation, well President Trump could potentially repeal a good portion of the IRA without Democrats, you know, any type of opposition. If there is gridlock, it means legislation odds actually come down. So as you triend to think about the the election and how you prepare for it as an investor, think of this scenario analysis process and procedure, because whether it's legislation, regulation, or executive order, generally there's a process associated with this, and generally you do get about six, nine, twelve months before the actual final catalyst takes place, and so you can actually then plan accordingly to that.

Well, you've set us up so well for our next conversation, Nathan Dean, thank you so much. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior government analyst with us joining us from our DC bureau. So talking about some of those outcomes. So let's get a little bit more in terms of what investors might be thinking about on this Monday.

Well, you've set us up so well for our next conversation, Nathan Dean, thank you so much. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior government analyst with us joining us from our DC bureau. So talking about some of those outcomes. So let's get a little bit more in terms of what investors might be thinking about on this Monday.

So that's where we go now to the financial markets and how this past weekend's political developments changed the outlook. With more on that we're going to bring in Bloomberg Intelligence Chief equity strategist Gina Martin Adams, who joins us from New Jersey, and Bloomberg News chief correspondent for Global macro Markets, Liz McCormick here in our studio. Gina, I do want to start with you, because on the equity side, we're certainly seeing a rally under way today. Is it fair to say that, is it fair to read into the equity market reaction at all today based on what happened politically in the last twenty four hours.

So that's where we go now to the financial markets and how this past weekend's political developments changed the outlook. With more on that we're going to bring in Bloomberg Intelligence Chief equity strategist Gina Martin Adams, who joins us from New Jersey, and Bloomberg News chief correspondent for Global macro Markets, Liz McCormick here in our studio. Gina, I do want to start with you, because on the equity side, we're certainly seeing a rally under way today. Is it fair to say that, is it fair to read into the equity market reaction at all today based on what happened politically in the last twenty four hours.

I think it's really difficult to draw a direct line between politics and stocks for a lot of reasons. I know that the narrative has really revolved around this so called Trump trade, but when you really dig into the data, we're not seeing much of a politically oriented trade emerge in the equity markets. As a matter of fact, what's really occurring in the equity markets is a combination of a fundamental rotation, a fundamentally driven rotation in leadership. We are in the midst of the earning season, let's not forget, and then also the prospects for affetis so as the markets have gone on again, off again, and the prospects for affettis come September or maybe November. That is definitely impacting stocks and risk tolerance. And then the earnings results are absolutely having an impact in particular analyst expectations, and as those expectations change, we're seeing stock prices start to react.

I think it's really difficult to draw a direct line between politics and stocks for a lot of reasons. I know that the narrative has really revolved around this so called Trump trade, but when you really dig into the data, we're not seeing much of a politically oriented trade emerge in the equity markets. As a matter of fact, what's really occurring in the equity markets is a combination of a fundamental rotation, a fundamentally driven rotation in leadership. We are in the midst of the earning season, let's not forget, and then also the prospects for affetis so as the markets have gone on again, off again, and the prospects for affettis come September or maybe November. That is definitely impacting stocks and risk tolerance. And then the earnings results are absolutely having an impact in particular analyst expectations, and as those expectations change, we're seeing stock prices start to react.

All right, So Liz, come on in on this same question to you. I mean, I am wared too about talking about a Trump trade, a Horris trade, whatever trade. There's still one hundred and five days to go into the election. We all are what does the weekend development mean for global markets in the recent kind of macro market view.

All right, So Liz, come on in on this same question to you. I mean, I am wared too about talking about a Trump trade, a Horris trade, whatever trade. There's still one hundred and five days to go into the election. We all are what does the weekend development mean for global markets in the recent kind of macro market view.

Yeah, well, I would say to your point that some people are saying, yeah, overall, we have a lot of time here, and like Nathan was getting to even whomever wins, it's going to take some time, even if it's executive order, to get pushed through things. So we might think we know exactly what the Trump trade is. But I would say overall, we talk to a lot of people on Sunday after this announcement that people feel like, at the minimum, and if you look at the predicted odds on Blueberg, which you can find that you know this change. Biden saying he's not going to run Harris so far seeming the produmptive nominee maybe increase the odds a little bit that the Democrats may win, right, because people were feeling like, oh, maybe Biden is not going to win. I mean, if you look at the predicted odds, Trump is still very high and Urne a little over sixty. But maybe in I would say I think were getting aut earlier. But it's also down ballot candidates, right. If anything, this slightly seems to some investors to reduce the odds of a Republican sweep, you know, which the sweep thing is the biggest thing, whether it's Stems or Republicans. For bond investors, they like gridlock, like Naven talk to no big changes and status quo, So that may be helped. But I do think at least on the fiscal side, we know both sides want to spend. No one's really cutting the deficit, but that people are leaning to bias that if it's Trump, especially if it's a Trump and a red wave, that there'll be more fiscal spending.

Yeah, well, I would say to your point that some people are saying, yeah, overall, we have a lot of time here, and like Nathan was getting to even whomever wins, it's going to take some time, even if it's executive order, to get pushed through things. So we might think we know exactly what the Trump trade is. But I would say overall, we talk to a lot of people on Sunday after this announcement that people feel like, at the minimum, and if you look at the predicted odds on Blueberg, which you can find that you know this change. Biden saying he's not going to run Harris so far seeming the produmptive nominee maybe increase the odds a little bit that the Democrats may win, right, because people were feeling like, oh, maybe Biden is not going to win. I mean, if you look at the predicted odds, Trump is still very high and Urne a little over sixty. But maybe in I would say I think were getting aut earlier. But it's also down ballot candidates, right. If anything, this slightly seems to some investors to reduce the odds of a Republican sweep, you know, which the sweep thing is the biggest thing, whether it's Stems or Republicans. For bond investors, they like gridlock, like Naven talk to no big changes and status quo, So that may be helped. But I do think at least on the fiscal side, we know both sides want to spend. No one's really cutting the deficit, but that people are leaning to bias that if it's Trump, especially if it's a Trump and a red wave, that there'll be more fiscal spending.

You, Liz, is there a certain part of the curve that you're watching right now? Where should our investors, our audience be looking.

You, Liz, is there a certain part of the curve that you're watching right now? Where should our investors, our audience be looking.

Yeah, well it's first of all, the slope of the curve twos tens is a very popular one that kind of you know, we saw some flattening today is this re analysis of the Trump trade, but now it's about flat. So I think people are still digesting what is this going to mean. I know some people are still saying who's going to be on the ticket and full on the Democratic side. We have the convention, and like Gina got to, I think what bond investors are saying, Okay, let's go back to our knitting. What really matters this week? We have some key data GDP PC deflator.

Yeah, well it's first of all, the slope of the curve twos tens is a very popular one that kind of you know, we saw some flattening today is this re analysis of the Trump trade, but now it's about flat. So I think people are still digesting what is this going to mean. I know some people are still saying who's going to be on the ticket and full on the Democratic side. We have the convention, and like Gina got to, I think what bond investors are saying, Okay, let's go back to our knitting. What really matters this week? We have some key data GDP PC deflator.

FED meeting next week and the.

FED meeting next week and the.

FED meeting next week, and you know from our Washington great Fed reporters, they kind of wrote that it's probably FED going to signal that maybe a cut is coming in September, which the market is already priced for. So I think bond investors are saying, you know, like I think Mark Obanna at the Bank of America said it best, like the main certainty we know about this election is uncertainty, you know what I mean. So that's in the bucket right.

FED meeting next week, and you know from our Washington great Fed reporters, they kind of wrote that it's probably FED going to signal that maybe a cut is coming in September, which the market is already priced for. So I think bond investors are saying, you know, like I think Mark Obanna at the Bank of America said it best, like the main certainty we know about this election is uncertainty, you know what I mean. So that's in the bucket right.

Well, if anything that we've learned right over the last two or three weeks that like things can just be turned on their head. Gina, come on back in you did mention. I was thinking about it this morning coming I'm like, Okay, what is it going to be like? And I'm thinking we've got some big earnings, Like earnings still matter in a big way for investors.

Well, if anything that we've learned right over the last two or three weeks that like things can just be turned on their head. Gina, come on back in you did mention. I was thinking about it this morning coming I'm like, Okay, what is it going to be like? And I'm thinking we've got some big earnings, Like earnings still matter in a big way for investors.

Yeah, as they should. And we've actually had a phenomenal earning season so far. Financials really picked us off on the right foot. Financials posting four times the growth rate that was anticipated at the start of the season, so very clearly better performance emerging out of financials. At the same time, they get the tail end of the yield curve that has emerged over the last several weeks. So financials have really helped in all s and P five hundred earnings are now tracking close to ten percent growth year of the year. At the start of the season they were at eight. So not only are financials beating expectations, but analysts are still marking up their forecasts for the most of the rest of the sectors with the exception of energy, So the index is on pace for a very strong earning season. We'll see if that continues we get into the bulk of the earning season over the next couple of weeks. Of course, everyone's eyes are squarely focused on megacap tech and whether or not those companies, in particular in the semiconductor's space can start can continue to beat and raise expectations as they have for the last several quarters.

Yeah, as they should. And we've actually had a phenomenal earning season so far. Financials really picked us off on the right foot. Financials posting four times the growth rate that was anticipated at the start of the season, so very clearly better performance emerging out of financials. At the same time, they get the tail end of the yield curve that has emerged over the last several weeks. So financials have really helped in all s and P five hundred earnings are now tracking close to ten percent growth year of the year. At the start of the season they were at eight. So not only are financials beating expectations, but analysts are still marking up their forecasts for the most of the rest of the sectors with the exception of energy, So the index is on pace for a very strong earning season. We'll see if that continues we get into the bulk of the earning season over the next couple of weeks. Of course, everyone's eyes are squarely focused on megacap tech and whether or not those companies, in particular in the semiconductor's space can start can continue to beat and raise expectations as they have for the last several quarters.

Gina earnings obviously crucial. We're going to talk about that a lot throughout our program today. But as Liz mentioned, the FED is meeting next week. I'm wondering, from your perch, how are you watching what the FED says and what the FED does?

Gina earnings obviously crucial. We're going to talk about that a lot throughout our program today. But as Liz mentioned, the FED is meeting next week. I'm wondering, from your perch, how are you watching what the FED says and what the FED does?

Yeah, I think FED is most like mostly manifested in small cap performance. So what we saw very clearly on July tenth and in July eleventh, of last of a few weeks back, was it last week the week before, I'm loving track none the last Mike McKy.

Yeah, I think FED is most like mostly manifested in small cap performance. So what we saw very clearly on July tenth and in July eleventh, of last of a few weeks back, was it last week the week before, I'm loving track none the last Mike McKy.

Mike McKee said on Twitter or X over the weekend something like, you know, this is this period where you have a couple of weeks that feels like a year basically our years of history.

Mike McKee said on Twitter or X over the weekend something like, you know, this is this period where you have a couple of weeks that feels like a year basically our years of history.

Ye, his child. We did see an incredible performance spurt for small caps really related to the FED when we got that CPI report in the middle of July, we did see FED prospects really changed materially, and that resulted in an incredible surge in small cap stocks, one of the three largest surges of the last decade and a half as a matter of fact. So small caps, I think are going to really be the signal as to whether or not the small cap index moves. That will depend on how the FED guides for September. I do think that as long as the FED is guiding for September or November, that's probably a nuance that the equity market is not going to care too much about. They'll need to see though the FED keeps suggesting that the path to fill the forward progress is definitely an ease as opposed to a continued hole.

Ye, his child. We did see an incredible performance spurt for small caps really related to the FED when we got that CPI report in the middle of July, we did see FED prospects really changed materially, and that resulted in an incredible surge in small cap stocks, one of the three largest surges of the last decade and a half as a matter of fact. So small caps, I think are going to really be the signal as to whether or not the small cap index moves. That will depend on how the FED guides for September. I do think that as long as the FED is guiding for September or November, that's probably a nuance that the equity market is not going to care too much about. They'll need to see though the FED keeps suggesting that the path to fill the forward progress is definitely an ease as opposed to a continued hole.

Final thoughts, Liz in terms of as we set up for the week and just kind of what are you thinking about kind of keeping just a watch politically, Is there something that could develop over the week that would make you start to, I don't know, just pay a little bit more attention to it or or is it more just the FED the data?

Final thoughts, Liz in terms of as we set up for the week and just kind of what are you thinking about kind of keeping just a watch politically, Is there something that could develop over the week that would make you start to, I don't know, just pay a little bit more attention to it or or is it more just the FED the data?

Yeah, I mean I'm hoping politically we've probably seen the biggest.

Yeah, I mean I'm hoping politically we've probably seen the biggest.

You know, announcerent for a while, but we don't know.

You know, announcerent for a while, but we don't know.

But what Gina brought up, I was thinking of it too, Like with the data that we're looking at, remember unemployment claims, because the Fed has really talked about their dual mandate. It's more in balance now, so people are really that's top of mind because that's really fresh data, and you know, talking about small cast people doing well on the wealth effects. So right now, the consumer's still doing okay. Retail sales was pretty good last week, So I think the bond market wants to see we're in that like wonky forget the term where we start to get the unemployment rate rise, not just you know, people hiring less, that bever curve or whatever. I'm McKee would know. So if we see claims keep going up, that's going to be bullish for the bond market because that bodes for will priced about sixty basis points of easying for this year, maybe more.

But what Gina brought up, I was thinking of it too, Like with the data that we're looking at, remember unemployment claims, because the Fed has really talked about their dual mandate. It's more in balance now, so people are really that's top of mind because that's really fresh data, and you know, talking about small cast people doing well on the wealth effects. So right now, the consumer's still doing okay. Retail sales was pretty good last week, So I think the bond market wants to see we're in that like wonky forget the term where we start to get the unemployment rate rise, not just you know, people hiring less, that bever curve or whatever. I'm McKee would know. So if we see claims keep going up, that's going to be bullish for the bond market because that bodes for will priced about sixty basis points of easying for this year, maybe more.

You know, Yeah, that whole idea. I'll roads lead back to Michael McKee. It just always kind of happens, and you both to be quite fair. Bloomberg Intelligence chief equity strategista Martin Adams joining us out there in New Jersey, Bloomberg News Chief correspondent for Global macro Markets Liz McCormick. Right here in our studio.

You know, Yeah, that whole idea. I'll roads lead back to Michael McKee. It just always kind of happens, and you both to be quite fair. Bloomberg Intelligence chief equity strategista Martin Adams joining us out there in New Jersey, Bloomberg News Chief correspondent for Global macro Markets Liz McCormick. Right here in our studio.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple car Play and then Brout Auto with a Bloomberg Business Act or watch us Live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple car Play and then Brout Auto with a Bloomberg Business Act or watch us Live on YouTube.

We'll we talk a lot in recent months about the growth of demand for electricity in the coming years and Carol. Just last week, the International Energy Agency came out with a report that said demand globally for electricity is increasing at the fastest rating years. It's to heat waves, makes sense, more tech that runs on electricity, think evs and electric heating totally, and then economic growth around the world because when more people are doing well, they buy things that plug in and use electricity. So demand for electricity globally is expected to grow by about four percent in twenty twenty four, up from the two point five percent in twenty three, according to the IEA.

We'll we talk a lot in recent months about the growth of demand for electricity in the coming years and Carol. Just last week, the International Energy Agency came out with a report that said demand globally for electricity is increasing at the fastest rating years. It's to heat waves, makes sense, more tech that runs on electricity, think evs and electric heating totally, and then economic growth around the world because when more people are doing well, they buy things that plug in and use electricity. So demand for electricity globally is expected to grow by about four percent in twenty twenty four, up from the two point five percent in twenty three, according to the IEA.

That's a big bump up year to year. Here are the United States. We get about sixty percent of our energy from fossil fuels, twenty one point four percent from renewables such as wind, hydropower, and solar, and about eighteen point six percent from nuclear. But there's a startup out there, tim that really kind of wants to change that and they.

That's a big bump up year to year. Here are the United States. We get about sixty percent of our energy from fossil fuels, twenty one point four percent from renewables such as wind, hydropower, and solar, and about eighteen point six percent from nuclear. But there's a startup out there, tim that really kind of wants to change that and they.

Want to help the US go more nuclear. It's called well the Nuclear Company, and they've recently announced plans to build a fleet of nuclear power plants in the US. But as you know from our program, that is easier said than done. Julian Edwards is chief development officer for the Nuclear Company. She joins US from Pittsburgh. She also chairs the US Women in Nuclear It's a five thousand member organization that advances the role of women in the industry. Julian, good to have you with us. As I mentioned, we talk a lot about nuclear energy on our program. Our colleague well wait, actually was recently on talking with us talking about the huge party that the nuclear industry through in Georgia to celebrate the US's first reactor in thirty years, the first one in thirty years. How are you going to build a fleet of nuclear reactors? It costs a lot to build them, they go over budget, people historically don't want them in the backyards, and then there's the waste. How are you going to do it well.

Want to help the US go more nuclear. It's called well the Nuclear Company, and they've recently announced plans to build a fleet of nuclear power plants in the US. But as you know from our program, that is easier said than done. Julian Edwards is chief development officer for the Nuclear Company. She joins US from Pittsburgh. She also chairs the US Women in Nuclear It's a five thousand member organization that advances the role of women in the industry. Julian, good to have you with us. As I mentioned, we talk a lot about nuclear energy on our program. Our colleague well wait, actually was recently on talking with us talking about the huge party that the nuclear industry through in Georgia to celebrate the US's first reactor in thirty years, the first one in thirty years. How are you going to build a fleet of nuclear reactors? It costs a lot to build them, they go over budget, people historically don't want them in the backyards, and then there's the waste. How are you going to do it well.

First off, it's great to be here. Thank you so much for having us on. The Nuclear Company is just honored as well as representing the US Women and Nuclear Organization. And yes, I did see the streaming of the event that went at Vogel and just the amount of support that we saw from both government and industry, and it was exciting to see the rallying and to see our country put two new reactors online. And it's going to take a coalition to answer your question, it can't just be one single entity. And the Nuclear Company is here to ensure that we stopped talking about building and we go straight into actually action and building new nuclear.

First off, it's great to be here. Thank you so much for having us on. The Nuclear Company is just honored as well as representing the US Women and Nuclear Organization. And yes, I did see the streaming of the event that went at Vogel and just the amount of support that we saw from both government and industry, and it was exciting to see the rallying and to see our country put two new reactors online. And it's going to take a coalition to answer your question, it can't just be one single entity. And the Nuclear Company is here to ensure that we stopped talking about building and we go straight into actually action and building new nuclear.

What would you say are the biggest obstacles at this point, Julianne, is it, you know, not in my backyard? Is it the regulatory I mean it's utilities, right, like these things aren't just built overnight. But what are the biggest stumbling blocks?

What would you say are the biggest obstacles at this point, Julianne, is it, you know, not in my backyard? Is it the regulatory I mean it's utilities, right, like these things aren't just built overnight. But what are the biggest stumbling blocks?

Sure, we're actually seeing a big pivot. It used to be not in my backyard over a decade ago, for sure, and it's pivoted because we're seeing, honestly, a resurgence and understanding of the benefits nuclear can bring, not only in clean, reliable energy that's on day in and day out, but also the fact that it's no carbon emissions, the amount of economic benefit that goes in these communities, and I would say the hurdle right now is it's difficult for one entity to take that balance sheet risk onto their shareholders and onto their stakeholders. And that's what the Nuclear Company is focusing on is building a coalition of public and private partnership that ensures that that capital investment is spread across those that will both benefit and be a part of the long term life of these facilities.

Sure, we're actually seeing a big pivot. It used to be not in my backyard over a decade ago, for sure, and it's pivoted because we're seeing, honestly, a resurgence and understanding of the benefits nuclear can bring, not only in clean, reliable energy that's on day in and day out, but also the fact that it's no carbon emissions, the amount of economic benefit that goes in these communities, and I would say the hurdle right now is it's difficult for one entity to take that balance sheet risk onto their shareholders and onto their stakeholders. And that's what the Nuclear Company is focusing on is building a coalition of public and private partnership that ensures that that capital investment is spread across those that will both benefit and be a part of the long term life of these facilities.

Well, can you tell us about the facilities? What kind of reactors for example, are you built are you planning to build?

Well, can you tell us about the facilities? What kind of reactors for example, are you built are you planning to build?

Yeah, so there's a number that are currently licensed by our regulator here in this country, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The Nuclear Company is very very technology agnostic. Today, however, we are going to narrow our focus on which ones are actually currently licensed by the NRC because that will allow us to accelerate and get clean neutrons online as fast as possible.

Yeah, so there's a number that are currently licensed by our regulator here in this country, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The Nuclear Company is very very technology agnostic. Today, however, we are going to narrow our focus on which ones are actually currently licensed by the NRC because that will allow us to accelerate and get clean neutrons online as fast as possible.

So would that be like a Westinghouse AP one thousand, like they just finished in Georgia.

So would that be like a Westinghouse AP one thousand, like they just finished in Georgia.

Those are definitely on the list. There's a number of actually licensed technologies that are currently approved by the NRC, and more will come out on that probably later this year.

Those are definitely on the list. There's a number of actually licensed technologies that are currently approved by the NRC, and more will come out on that probably later this year.

What about in terms of nuclear waste, I feel like you can't bring up reactors without thinking about what do you do with the nuclear waste? As a result of that, have we really found a good way of dealing with it?

What about in terms of nuclear waste, I feel like you can't bring up reactors without thinking about what do you do with the nuclear waste? As a result of that, have we really found a good way of dealing with it?

You know, nuclear waste is a conversation I talked a lot about at a previous company I worked at. Nuclear waste is not anything compared to the problem of you know, our global crisis around clean energy needed to lower carbon emissions. And so I would say nuclear is probably the most responsible power generation source on the planet because what they do in terms of establishing a program and financing for managing that nuclear waste is unlike any other generation source that I've seen. There's an establishment of an asset retirement obligation fund that's set up right when the plant begins operation, and over the life of the reactors, that fund it begins to accumulate to ensure that at the end of life you have the financial backing to go ensure that that facility is decommissioned and that the waste is properly stored on site long term storage. We're still working on a solution in this country.

You know, nuclear waste is a conversation I talked a lot about at a previous company I worked at. Nuclear waste is not anything compared to the problem of you know, our global crisis around clean energy needed to lower carbon emissions. And so I would say nuclear is probably the most responsible power generation source on the planet because what they do in terms of establishing a program and financing for managing that nuclear waste is unlike any other generation source that I've seen. There's an establishment of an asset retirement obligation fund that's set up right when the plant begins operation, and over the life of the reactors, that fund it begins to accumulate to ensure that at the end of life you have the financial backing to go ensure that that facility is decommissioned and that the waste is properly stored on site long term storage. We're still working on a solution in this country.

It's a problem, though, right fair to say, I mean that's I guess that's where I wanted to go with, you know, the waste. It's it stays with us for a long time, and so you've got to figure out I'm trying to be smart here about like what do we do with it in a safe way?

It's a problem, though, right fair to say, I mean that's I guess that's where I wanted to go with, you know, the waste. It's it stays with us for a long time, and so you've got to figure out I'm trying to be smart here about like what do we do with it in a safe way?

Yeah, we're definitely trying to evaluate as a country what can we do technology And in terms of this, you see other countries that have evaluated the recycling of it and reusing it and repurposing it, much like we have done actually in a non proliferation format at the Mocks facility down in Savannah. But I would say the problem is not as big and large in scale as folks perhaps need to understand the details of that. I mean, you could fit the entire nuclear waste from a twin operated nuclear facility on the size of a football field. I mean, it's that small in terms of sixty years of waste. So it's not as astronomical as folks are out.

Yeah, we're definitely trying to evaluate as a country what can we do technology And in terms of this, you see other countries that have evaluated the recycling of it and reusing it and repurposing it, much like we have done actually in a non proliferation format at the Mocks facility down in Savannah. But I would say the problem is not as big and large in scale as folks perhaps need to understand the details of that. I mean, you could fit the entire nuclear waste from a twin operated nuclear facility on the size of a football field. I mean, it's that small in terms of sixty years of waste. So it's not as astronomical as folks are out.

But is it a case of not size, but just what it could do if for some reason they know waste facility or the storage there's a problem. It's not just a case the amount, right, it's just what could happen if something goes wrong.

But is it a case of not size, but just what it could do if for some reason they know waste facility or the storage there's a problem. It's not just a case the amount, right, it's just what could happen if something goes wrong.

I mean, these storage casts that are designed and manufactured and regulated very very highly regulated, are safe, safe designs. There have been no accidents related to exposure of radioactive waste in this country. And that's a testament to the abilities and concentrated effort on making sure that those spent nuclear fuel canisters are securing that waste while they decay over the next couple of years.

I mean, these storage casts that are designed and manufactured and regulated very very highly regulated, are safe, safe designs. There have been no accidents related to exposure of radioactive waste in this country. And that's a testament to the abilities and concentrated effort on making sure that those spent nuclear fuel canisters are securing that waste while they decay over the next couple of years.

Where are you planning to build these reactors right now? At least in the early part of the company.

Where are you planning to build these reactors right now? At least in the early part of the company.

Sure, the Nuclear Company is evaluating a number of sites again we'll be disclosed later this year along with the technology. When I look at what is the fastest way that we can put clean neutrons online, I look to the sites that currently have two factors. One, interconnect You've got to be able to have sites that have access to a location that can distribute power and large scale. And then two is making sure that we have sites that are permitted that have passed that due diligence of technical and environmental assessments by the Nuclear regulatory Commission by the EPA and the state stakeholders. So there's a number of those sites currently being evaluated and more to come on where those exact locations will be.

Sure, the Nuclear Company is evaluating a number of sites again we'll be disclosed later this year along with the technology. When I look at what is the fastest way that we can put clean neutrons online, I look to the sites that currently have two factors. One, interconnect You've got to be able to have sites that have access to a location that can distribute power and large scale. And then two is making sure that we have sites that are permitted that have passed that due diligence of technical and environmental assessments by the Nuclear regulatory Commission by the EPA and the state stakeholders. So there's a number of those sites currently being evaluated and more to come on where those exact locations will be.

And what about who will buy the power? Who's going to do that?

And what about who will buy the power? Who's going to do that?

I mean you and I are buying the power right now I'm sitting here.

I mean you and I are buying the power right now I'm sitting here.

But but not from a company reactor that you built.

But but not from a company reactor that you built.

Well, I mean the off take for nuclear power when distributed goes to residential, commercial, industrial, And so when I look at the coalition, there's going to be members that are going to be a part of this community that we're building that will enable the off take those agreements to be solid and bankable. And so you're looking at the large industrials and hyperscalers that have come out publicly and stated that they want to see more nuclear in this country.

Well, I mean the off take for nuclear power when distributed goes to residential, commercial, industrial, And so when I look at the coalition, there's going to be members that are going to be a part of this community that we're building that will enable the off take those agreements to be solid and bankable. And so you're looking at the large industrials and hyperscalers that have come out publicly and stated that they want to see more nuclear in this country.

So we are bloomberg. We're always curious. So what are the plans to build? You know, talk to us about that coalition? We have about a minute left here. Who's already kind of ponying up to do something and move ahead?

So we are bloomberg. We're always curious. So what are the plans to build? You know, talk to us about that coalition? We have about a minute left here. Who's already kind of ponying up to do something and move ahead?

Yeah, I got to be cognizant of like just the members that we have, because some are publicly traded, some aren't, and I would say that it's very important to remember that we have seen enormous bipartisans So we're going to be working very closely with the US government. They've enacted enormous amount of legislation, I mean, the Advance Act just a couple of weeks ago, and we're going to make sure that we leverage that relationship and build the largest public private partnership that this country's ever seen.

Yeah, I got to be cognizant of like just the members that we have, because some are publicly traded, some aren't, and I would say that it's very important to remember that we have seen enormous bipartisans So we're going to be working very closely with the US government. They've enacted enormous amount of legislation, I mean, the Advance Act just a couple of weeks ago, and we're going to make sure that we leverage that relationship and build the largest public private partnership that this country's ever seen.

I just want to talk money, because these things are so expensive to build. How much have you raised? We only have thirty seconds left.

I just want to talk money, because these things are so expensive to build. How much have you raised? We only have thirty seconds left.

I can't talk about the raise yet, but I can tell you the investors that represent us, like MCJ, True Ventures and others, have access to billions of dollars of capital, and they are fully behind us and supportive and making sure that we have enough capital to pass the due diligence test and financial reviews that will be required to build gigascale and fleet scale reactors.

I can't talk about the raise yet, but I can tell you the investors that represent us, like MCJ, True Ventures and others, have access to billions of dollars of capital, and they are fully behind us and supportive and making sure that we have enough capital to pass the due diligence test and financial reviews that will be required to build gigascale and fleet scale reactors.

Julianne, just really quickly fifteen seconds. Does it matter who's in the White House in terms of your mission come November and just very quickly.

Julianne, just really quickly fifteen seconds. Does it matter who's in the White House in terms of your mission come November and just very quickly.

Please, no, very good question. And this is the biggest bipartisan topic. I mean, nuclear has been supported on both sides of the House, so we do not see this as anything that's going to prevent our ability to scale.

Please, no, very good question. And this is the biggest bipartisan topic. I mean, nuclear has been supported on both sides of the House, so we do not see this as anything that's going to prevent our ability to scale.

Julian Edwards, chief development officer of the Nuclear Company, joining us on this Monday. Julian, thank you so much.

Julian Edwards, chief development officer of the Nuclear Company, joining us on this Monday. Julian, thank you so much.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty BC Journal. How about you let me drive?

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty BC Journal. How about you let me drive?

Oh no, no, no, no, who's gone?

Oh no, no, no, no, who's gone?

Honey?

Honey?

Please travels?

Please travels?

I want to drive.

I want to drive.

It's a good question. This is the drive to the clothes dot com thing, well by Don on Bloomberg Radio.

It's a good question. This is the drive to the clothes dot com thing, well by Don on Bloomberg Radio.

Well, as they say talks, and by that I mean, as Carol says, TikTok uh. Look at that we got less than eighteen minutes ago to decause of trading on this Sunday. Yeah yeah, near our eyes equity market. A little bit of a rally that we're seeing today. Let's see what Chris McMahon has to say about it. The CEO of Aquinas Swath Advisors. He joins us here miraculously in the Bloomberg INTERACTI brokeer studios because it was quite a journey for you to get here.

Well, as they say talks, and by that I mean, as Carol says, TikTok uh. Look at that we got less than eighteen minutes ago to decause of trading on this Sunday. Yeah yeah, near our eyes equity market. A little bit of a rally that we're seeing today. Let's see what Chris McMahon has to say about it. The CEO of Aquinas Swath Advisors. He joins us here miraculously in the Bloomberg INTERACTI brokeer studios because it was quite a journey for you to get here.

It was indeed, when I went out to Indianapolis Airport and my flight was canceled, and then I couldn't get a car because even the herd screens were.

It was indeed, when I went out to Indianapolis Airport and my flight was canceled, and then I couldn't get a car because even the herd screens were.

Because of the Microsoft issue, Microsoft crowd strike. Excuse me, the CrowdStrike issue, not the Microsoft ist.

Because of the Microsoft issue, Microsoft crowd strike. Excuse me, the CrowdStrike issue, not the Microsoft ist.

Right.

Right.

Is that is that right?

Is that is that right?

Yeah?

Yeah?

Is that right?

Is that right?

Brought the world to a home right, No big deal that We're okay, look away, I have to talk about CRWD today until my decliners. Hey, you know, front center. What's happening politically right now? This was a surprise to a lot of people, at least the timing. I think Sunday afternoon. How do you think the market is taken?

Brought the world to a home right, No big deal that We're okay, look away, I have to talk about CRWD today until my decliners. Hey, you know, front center. What's happening politically right now? This was a surprise to a lot of people, at least the timing. I think Sunday afternoon. How do you think the market is taken?

We don't think the market cares that much. We think that the Biden administration and the Harris administration the same in the eyes of the market, right. We think that we think that there's been more optimism around Trump than previously, and I think the Trump responds, but the market response better. The Trump trade is a little bit more positive than it was even yesterday. We think that people are saying.

We don't think the market cares that much. We think that the Biden administration and the Harris administration the same in the eyes of the market, right. We think that we think that there's been more optimism around Trump than previously, and I think the Trump responds, but the market response better. The Trump trade is a little bit more positive than it was even yesterday. We think that people are saying.

Hey, do you think this is the Trump trade?

Hey, do you think this is the Trump trade?

Well, I think it's coming. I think what's happening is people are saying to us, hey, look, Trump's gonna win this thing, right. Trump's he's going to extend the tax cuts, that he's going to cut interest rates. That tightal wave of cash that's sitting inside or short term bond funds is going to be pouring back to the market. So I think the market is optimistic more optimistic about the Trump excuse me, the Biden and Harris or Harris now administration not being able to pull this thing off as they were, as they were even just a month ago.

Well, I think it's coming. I think what's happening is people are saying to us, hey, look, Trump's gonna win this thing, right. Trump's he's going to extend the tax cuts, that he's going to cut interest rates. That tightal wave of cash that's sitting inside or short term bond funds is going to be pouring back to the market. So I think the market is optimistic more optimistic about the Trump excuse me, the Biden and Harris or Harris now administration not being able to pull this thing off as they were, as they were even just a month ago.

You don't think it's too soon for us to be making like kind of a Trump trade or even a Harris trade or a Democratic trade.

You don't think it's too soon for us to be making like kind of a Trump trade or even a Harris trade or a Democratic trade.

It's way too soon, absolutely, I guess just.

It's way too soon, absolutely, I guess just.

You know, to be smart here, right, Like, it's just we've got a FED meeting next week. Most would say that is really key in terms of what's happening in the markets. You've got earnings just getting underwave. We've got some big, big ones Chris obviously this week, we've got Alphabet, We've got Tesla. You know that to me seems to be more front and center, despite how much time we've spent talking about politics today and certainly over the weekend. But I am curious what's front and center for you when you think about how to invest your client's money.

You know, to be smart here, right, Like, it's just we've got a FED meeting next week. Most would say that is really key in terms of what's happening in the markets. You've got earnings just getting underwave. We've got some big, big ones Chris obviously this week, we've got Alphabet, We've got Tesla. You know that to me seems to be more front and center, despite how much time we've spent talking about politics today and certainly over the weekend. But I am curious what's front and center for you when you think about how to invest your client's money.

I think it's I think it's fair. I think that you're right that the market isn't perceiving a difference between Harris and mind as I said already, so they are going to look at interest rates specifically. I think that's the big issue. The consumers tapped out right now that we're seeing that durable good sales have gone down, We're seeing that the mid market person, the person on main Street is hurting. They're highly leveraged, and the question is how are we going to help them reduce that burden?

I think it's I think it's fair. I think that you're right that the market isn't perceiving a difference between Harris and mind as I said already, so they are going to look at interest rates specifically. I think that's the big issue. The consumers tapped out right now that we're seeing that durable good sales have gone down, We're seeing that the mid market person, the person on main Street is hurting. They're highly leveraged, and the question is how are we going to help them reduce that burden?

Right?

Right?

And I think an interest rate cut is critical to us if we don't see I think a full point by the end of the year. I think the market, I think it's pricing all lower in that I know, right, it's a big full point. That's so I think it's going to be needed.

And I think an interest rate cut is critical to us if we don't see I think a full point by the end of the year. I think the market, I think it's pricing all lower in that I know, right, it's a big full point. That's so I think it's going to be needed.

We went from like six to none to two, and you think a full point, I.

We went from like six to none to two, and you think a full point, I.

Think a full point. I think were gonna have two cut centering. It's going to have to count to it.

Think a full point. I think were gonna have two cut centering. It's going to have to count to it.

When do you think we'll see the cuts?

When do you think we'll see the cuts?

I think we have to see at least a significant one and a half point before election day. I think probably, you know, September. It has to be right. And I think that this FED is this FED is very politically active. I don't think. I think they're aware of this, and I think it has to be significant because the consumer is drowning in death the middle market concern.

I think we have to see at least a significant one and a half point before election day. I think probably, you know, September. It has to be right. And I think that this FED is this FED is very politically active. I don't think. I think they're aware of this, and I think it has to be significant because the consumer is drowning in death the middle market concern.

Do you think the FED is politically active?

Do you think the FED is politically active?

I do, I do. I think they say they're not. I think they're very good at saying we're not politically active.

I do, I do. I think they say they're not. I think they're very good at saying we're not politically active.

But I don't think. You know, I don't think Pal's.

But I don't think. You know, I don't think Pal's.

Going to be uh if Trump wins the number one choice to run the run.

Going to be uh if Trump wins the number one choice to run the run.

He did say, to be fair in our interview that we published last week Bloomberg Business Week. It's the cover of the new issue, which, by the way, you can get now, but check out the story at Bloomberg dot com or on the terminal. He said that he would let Powell finish out his term.

He did say, to be fair in our interview that we published last week Bloomberg Business Week. It's the cover of the new issue, which, by the way, you can get now, but check out the story at Bloomberg dot com or on the terminal. He said that he would let Powell finish out his term.

I agree with you, he did say that he did.

I agree with you, he did say that he did.

He did, he did.

He did, he did.

I agree with you, but He said that time will tell TI will tell.

I agree with you, but He said that time will tell TI will tell.

Tell us about your clients and your investors that you work with. Who are they, what are kind of top of mind for them.

Tell us about your clients and your investors that you work with. Who are they, what are kind of top of mind for them.

I think a lot of people are still worried about traditional things. Do I have enough money to retire still the big issue? No, regardless of how much they've done.

I think a lot of people are still worried about traditional things. Do I have enough money to retire still the big issue? No, regardless of how much they've done.

It's interesting.

It's interesting.

The last twenty four to thirty six months have been great, right, The indexes have performed well well, certainly the last two twenty four months. People that are just balanced investors have done north of twelve percent, so they're comfortable they have more assets. But I think they're more worried than ever. The geopolitical landscape is freaking people out. It is gosh, the Ukraine, what's happening there, what's happening in you know, in the Middle East? And what does this mean for our For what does this mean for me as an investor? We're going to have a catastrophic you know, adjustment in the market.

The last twenty four to thirty six months have been great, right, The indexes have performed well well, certainly the last two twenty four months. People that are just balanced investors have done north of twelve percent, so they're comfortable they have more assets. But I think they're more worried than ever. The geopolitical landscape is freaking people out. It is gosh, the Ukraine, what's happening there, what's happening in you know, in the Middle East? And what does this mean for our For what does this mean for me as an investor? We're going to have a catastrophic you know, adjustment in the market.

Do you think that if Trump wins, yes, those fears would change. I think sorry, yeah, he has talked and Republicans, especially JD. Vans, have talked about the need for Ukraine to sort of be on its own and then again and go back to the BusinessWeek story. Last week, Trump said he wouldn't defend Taiwan if China were invaded there. What are your thoughts around that.

Do you think that if Trump wins, yes, those fears would change. I think sorry, yeah, he has talked and Republicans, especially JD. Vans, have talked about the need for Ukraine to sort of be on its own and then again and go back to the BusinessWeek story. Last week, Trump said he wouldn't defend Taiwan if China were invaded there. What are your thoughts around that.

I think people are looking, they're looking a little bit more at their personal backyard, a little bit more. I think if they feel that the border's a little bit tighter. I think if they feel the interest rates kind a little bit, I think that's enough to get people comfort and say we're going to be okay. And I think that you know, as I said, the ore client a little bit worried too about this whole you know, commercial real estate crisis. Right, we're seeing thirty forty fifty uh vacancy R.

I think people are looking, they're looking a little bit more at their personal backyard, a little bit more. I think if they feel that the border's a little bit tighter. I think if they feel the interest rates kind a little bit, I think that's enough to get people comfort and say we're going to be okay. And I think that you know, as I said, the ore client a little bit worried too about this whole you know, commercial real estate crisis. Right, we're seeing thirty forty fifty uh vacancy R.

What are you doing then with client money if everybody's so worried, well with.

What are you doing then with client money if everybody's so worried, well with.

Cash is you're still getting paid for cash. Our allocations are about six percent higher, and cash the normal because they're happy to get five percent of that cash.

Cash is you're still getting paid for cash. Our allocations are about six percent higher, and cash the normal because they're happy to get five percent of that cash.

So if it's six percent higher, how much is in.

So if it's six percent higher, how much is in.

Cash about twelve percent? Normally it's about double, So it's a double allocation. And I think we're also thinking about, you know, if we're taking lump sums in today, we're not going all on the market. We're ringing it over six to twelve months, we're dollar cross to averaging it in.

Cash about twelve percent? Normally it's about double, So it's a double allocation. And I think we're also thinking about, you know, if we're taking lump sums in today, we're not going all on the market. We're ringing it over six to twelve months, we're dollar cross to averaging it in.

What would what would make you cut that cat ash allocation back to your normal six percent level?

What would what would make you cut that cat ash allocation back to your normal six percent level?

I think probably over time a full interest rate cut would make us have to do that.

I think probably over time a full interest rate cut would make us have to do that.

You want to do that before the rate cut?

You want to do that before the rate cut?

Yeah, we want, We want to that's the balancing act, right, Yeah, we want to pick that perfect moment to go along on our bonds. Our durations are eighteen months now. We want to take them out to you know, sixty months at some point. We haven't done that yet because we're trying to figure out the exact day. If you guys know the exact day, I appreciate you giving it.