This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

Tim, one of the things the consequences of the pandemic, that's maybe one of the more positive bits that's come out of the past couple of years is that women in the United States have made historic gains in terms of labor force participation in recent months. The participant pation rate for women aged twenty five to fifty four in particular, hit seventy seven point eight percent in June. That is an all time record since that data was started to be collected back in the nineteen forties. But now all of that might be at risk because twenty four billion dollars in pandemic era government aid for takecare providers is set to run out at the end of September.

Tim, one of the things the consequences of the pandemic, that's maybe one of the more positive bits that's come out of the past couple of years is that women in the United States have made historic gains in terms of labor force participation in recent months. The participant pation rate for women aged twenty five to fifty four in particular, hit seventy seven point eight percent in June. That is an all time record since that data was started to be collected back in the nineteen forties. But now all of that might be at risk because twenty four billion dollars in pandemic era government aid for takecare providers is set to run out at the end of September.

That's bad news, really bad news.

That's bad news, really bad news.

I mean, it's such an important part of keeping women in the workforce, and so for that I want to bring in Read Pickert. She wrote this great story we have out on Bloomberg dot com in the Bloomberg terminal. Right now, she's the US Economy reporter and she joins us from our Washington DC bureau. Read first, tell me why are daycares so on the edge and so dependent on this twenty four billion dollars worth of funding that's set to run out at the end of September.

I mean, it's such an important part of keeping women in the workforce, and so for that I want to bring in Read Pickert. She wrote this great story we have out on Bloomberg dot com in the Bloomberg terminal. Right now, she's the US Economy reporter and she joins us from our Washington DC bureau. Read first, tell me why are daycares so on the edge and so dependent on this twenty four billion dollars worth of funding that's set to run out at the end of September.

So if first of all, thank you for having me on. But if we rewind the clocks back to the start of the pandemic, So when we saw daycares clothes, schools clothes, and suddenly parents, both mothers and fathers were scrambling to try to figure out what to do with their kids. We saw this huge decline in workforce participation among women ages twenty five to fifty four. And what you saw as we moved on into twenty twenty one, we saw the American Rescue Plan really step in with this billion, you know, twenty four billion dollar set of you know money for these childcare providers to help them keep their doors open. And childcare providers could use this money in a lot of different ways. So some of the main things that you saw, for instance, were you know, keeping up with the rising costs as inflation, you know, pushed up the cost of a variety of different bills that these providers had. You saw, in the case of paying their workers more or hiring more workers to open up more spots, just because you know, a lot of lower paid sectors started seeing some pretty significant wage increases in the tight labor markets. So childcare providers had a really hard time hiring and retaining their workforce. And so that's kind of the ways that these these providers have used that money. And so fast forward to now, the Century Foundation estimates that you know, more than seventy thousand providers could be forced to close. But you know, I think even putting that number even more in perspective, closing is like, you know, the worst case scenarios. So in ordered before a childcare provider clothses, they're going to try all different types of things to plug that hole. Whether that's raising tuition for parents that are already struggling to pay it, whether it's reducing hours, which you know is something that has already limited a lot of parents' ability to you know, really participate in their jobs in the workforce, and where flexible working has really stepped in, or have to have less staff, which means way less childcare spots available for children across the United States.

So if first of all, thank you for having me on. But if we rewind the clocks back to the start of the pandemic, So when we saw daycares clothes, schools clothes, and suddenly parents, both mothers and fathers were scrambling to try to figure out what to do with their kids. We saw this huge decline in workforce participation among women ages twenty five to fifty four. And what you saw as we moved on into twenty twenty one, we saw the American Rescue Plan really step in with this billion, you know, twenty four billion dollar set of you know money for these childcare providers to help them keep their doors open. And childcare providers could use this money in a lot of different ways. So some of the main things that you saw, for instance, were you know, keeping up with the rising costs as inflation, you know, pushed up the cost of a variety of different bills that these providers had. You saw, in the case of paying their workers more or hiring more workers to open up more spots, just because you know, a lot of lower paid sectors started seeing some pretty significant wage increases in the tight labor markets. So childcare providers had a really hard time hiring and retaining their workforce. And so that's kind of the ways that these these providers have used that money. And so fast forward to now, the Century Foundation estimates that you know, more than seventy thousand providers could be forced to close. But you know, I think even putting that number even more in perspective, closing is like, you know, the worst case scenarios. So in ordered before a childcare provider clothses, they're going to try all different types of things to plug that hole. Whether that's raising tuition for parents that are already struggling to pay it, whether it's reducing hours, which you know is something that has already limited a lot of parents' ability to you know, really participate in their jobs in the workforce, and where flexible working has really stepped in, or have to have less staff, which means way less childcare spots available for children across the United States.

Read.

Read.

One thing that was so surprising to me, as somebody who pays so much money every month in childcare costs, was how little childcare providers get paid. There's this value chain that occurs when a parent pays a childcare provider, and I don't know where that money is going because the people who work there are not getting paid much. What's happening here, So.

One thing that was so surprising to me, as somebody who pays so much money every month in childcare costs, was how little childcare providers get paid. There's this value chain that occurs when a parent pays a childcare provider, and I don't know where that money is going because the people who work there are not getting paid much. What's happening here, So.

You're exactly right. Childcare is a profession that most people are in it for the love of the job, not for the pay. According to Bureau Labor Statistics data, the average childcare worker made fourteen dollars and twenty two cents an hour last year, which, for perspective, a lot of jobs, for instance, somewhere working at Target, for instance, the starting pay you know, may start at fifteen to twenty four dollars an hour, and so you can really see how these childcare providers it's difficult to you know, hire and keep these folks. But a lot of this, you know, goes into this idea of this broken system that we've heard people across the aisle talk about, and it really, you know, is this system where parents are paying really can't paign anymore. The providers are trying their best to pay their workers more. They want to pay their workers more, but they're paying a lot in terms of insurance and overhead and renting the space that they're in and then at the end of the day, you end up in this situation where kind of no one's quite happy. And it's part of the reason that we've really seen more band aid type efforts when it comes to the you know, Congress's role in terms of providing funding, just because the inherent system doesn't quite work economically well.

You're exactly right. Childcare is a profession that most people are in it for the love of the job, not for the pay. According to Bureau Labor Statistics data, the average childcare worker made fourteen dollars and twenty two cents an hour last year, which, for perspective, a lot of jobs, for instance, somewhere working at Target, for instance, the starting pay you know, may start at fifteen to twenty four dollars an hour, and so you can really see how these childcare providers it's difficult to you know, hire and keep these folks. But a lot of this, you know, goes into this idea of this broken system that we've heard people across the aisle talk about, and it really, you know, is this system where parents are paying really can't paign anymore. The providers are trying their best to pay their workers more. They want to pay their workers more, but they're paying a lot in terms of insurance and overhead and renting the space that they're in and then at the end of the day, you end up in this situation where kind of no one's quite happy. And it's part of the reason that we've really seen more band aid type efforts when it comes to the you know, Congress's role in terms of providing funding, just because the inherent system doesn't quite work economically well.

Tell me about the change from before these this money was initially doled out. Was this supposed to just kind of bring these childcare providers through this tough period or was it, you know, was it to allow them to get back on their feet, or was it did it truly bring childcare to people who weren't able to afford it for their families before and was that the intention?

Tell me about the change from before these this money was initially doled out. Was this supposed to just kind of bring these childcare providers through this tough period or was it, you know, was it to allow them to get back on their feet, or was it did it truly bring childcare to people who weren't able to afford it for their families before and was that the intention?

So a mixture of all of these things. So I think the importance of talking about childcare is the pandemic shed a lot of light on how stressed this sector was. But it's been a challenging spot well before the pandemic, and I think, you know, in the case of looking at what this money in particular, did it really helped address the immediate problems Econnie was facing. The economy saw this soaring, soaring prices, and so from a childcare perspective, that meant higher costs for rent, higher costs for utilities and electricity and groceries that they're providing the children at their daycare. It meant a tight labor market where it was even harder to offer someone such a low wage in comparison to all of these other sectors and expect them to stay. And so, you know, this was a measure that was meant to help in the short term. But the reality that we're living in economically hasn't changed a lot. Prices are still really high, the labor market is still quite strong, and yet this money that helped them get through there isn't there anymore.

So a mixture of all of these things. So I think the importance of talking about childcare is the pandemic shed a lot of light on how stressed this sector was. But it's been a challenging spot well before the pandemic, and I think, you know, in the case of looking at what this money in particular, did it really helped address the immediate problems Econnie was facing. The economy saw this soaring, soaring prices, and so from a childcare perspective, that meant higher costs for rent, higher costs for utilities and electricity and groceries that they're providing the children at their daycare. It meant a tight labor market where it was even harder to offer someone such a low wage in comparison to all of these other sectors and expect them to stay. And so, you know, this was a measure that was meant to help in the short term. But the reality that we're living in economically hasn't changed a lot. Prices are still really high, the labor market is still quite strong, and yet this money that helped them get through there isn't there anymore.

Yeah, sorry to interrupt there, read, but I mean, why don't politicians just look at this and say, Wow, this is something we didn't know how much this money was going to do. Can't we, on a bipartisan basis, just fulfill this twenty four billion dollar measure? Why are politicians why is this, I guess even coming up, why are we facing this childcare cliffs as it's been called.

Yeah, sorry to interrupt there, read, but I mean, why don't politicians just look at this and say, Wow, this is something we didn't know how much this money was going to do. Can't we, on a bipartisan basis, just fulfill this twenty four billion dollar measure? Why are politicians why is this, I guess even coming up, why are we facing this childcare cliffs as it's been called.

So, like a lot of things in Washington, it's not so simple. This childcare is an issue that is a bipartisan issue and one that's widely supported by Republicans and Democrats. The way that folks feel that the sector should be supported differs based on who you ask. You know, one kind of promising thing that we've seen is we've seen a bipartisan childcare Caucus start to form with Representatives Rocanna and Nancy Mace bringing more awareness to this childcare cliff and this affordability challenge. But you've also seen, in terms of the appropriations bills that are now kind of getting caught up in the broader government shutdown mess, there is an increase in funding for what's known as the Childcare and Development Block Grants, which is a program that's been in place for a while. But the increase is, you know, nowhere close to the twenty four billion dollars that we saw on the American Rescue Plan, but certainly will help to some extent, but is no way offsetting that.

So, like a lot of things in Washington, it's not so simple. This childcare is an issue that is a bipartisan issue and one that's widely supported by Republicans and Democrats. The way that folks feel that the sector should be supported differs based on who you ask. You know, one kind of promising thing that we've seen is we've seen a bipartisan childcare Caucus start to form with Representatives Rocanna and Nancy Mace bringing more awareness to this childcare cliff and this affordability challenge. But you've also seen, in terms of the appropriations bills that are now kind of getting caught up in the broader government shutdown mess, there is an increase in funding for what's known as the Childcare and Development Block Grants, which is a program that's been in place for a while. But the increase is, you know, nowhere close to the twenty four billion dollars that we saw on the American Rescue Plan, but certainly will help to some extent, but is no way offsetting that.

So read just in the last minute that we have with you based on your reporting. And I know it's not your job to make predictions, but I'm a parent who pays for childcare. Right now, give me a prediction of what you think happens at the end of the month.

So read just in the last minute that we have with you based on your reporting. And I know it's not your job to make predictions, but I'm a parent who pays for childcare. Right now, give me a prediction of what you think happens at the end of the month.

So at the end of the month, nothing's going to immediately happen. This is a slow burning challenge that over the next six twelve months is when we start to see these centers start to close. But for parents it means, you know, particularly mothers, it means things such as cunning hours, switching to jobs that are less difficult, less productive, less time consuming and therefore often pay less, or dropping out of the workforce entirely, which would be really sad at a moment where women have really been leading this recovery.

So at the end of the month, nothing's going to immediately happen. This is a slow burning challenge that over the next six twelve months is when we start to see these centers start to close. But for parents it means, you know, particularly mothers, it means things such as cunning hours, switching to jobs that are less difficult, less productive, less time consuming and therefore often pay less, or dropping out of the workforce entirely, which would be really sad at a moment where women have really been leading this recovery.

I encourage you everybody to check out this story thread of seventy thousand daycare closures in perils US workforce gains serious economic implications when we cannot take care of children in this country. The story by Reid Pickart and Kelsey Butler. Check it out on the Bloomberg Terminill, of course, also at Bloomberg dot com.

I encourage you everybody to check out this story thread of seventy thousand daycare closures in perils US workforce gains serious economic implications when we cannot take care of children in this country. The story by Reid Pickart and Kelsey Butler. Check it out on the Bloomberg Terminill, of course, also at Bloomberg dot com.

If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Now.

Now.

I've just recently returned from the Persian Golf where I was correspondent there for about three and a half years. And frankly, since the start of the pandemic, there is no part of the world probably that's flexed its financial muscle like the golf. You bankers have been chasing sovereign wealf cash. In Dubai, you know, you have a wave of Russians pouring in with their own assets hedge funds, ccrypto firms.

I've just recently returned from the Persian Golf where I was correspondent there for about three and a half years. And frankly, since the start of the pandemic, there is no part of the world probably that's flexed its financial muscle like the golf. You bankers have been chasing sovereign wealf cash. In Dubai, you know, you have a wave of Russians pouring in with their own assets hedge funds, ccrypto firms.

But at the same time, you.

But at the same time, you.

Know, you look farther out across the Middle East and into Africa, and the pandemic and the war in Ukraine created sort of these devastating sustainability challenges for much, frankly larger populations. And that's why I'm so excited to have Norse Suade with us. She's founder and managing partner at Global Ventures, and she makes investments in the Middle East and Africa. She's normally based in Jubai, but Nor's joining us now from London, so Nor talk to me a little bit about some of the top investment themes for global ventures right now.

Know, you look farther out across the Middle East and into Africa, and the pandemic and the war in Ukraine created sort of these devastating sustainability challenges for much, frankly larger populations. And that's why I'm so excited to have Norse Suade with us. She's founder and managing partner at Global Ventures, and she makes investments in the Middle East and Africa. She's normally based in Jubai, but Nor's joining us now from London, so Nor talk to me a little bit about some of the top investment themes for global ventures right now.

So, first of all, thank you so much for having me and taking the time for us. As we see our part of the world, we take a look as you mentioned all of midlist in Africa, we are sector agnostics, so we invest across all sectors. What's really exciting to us right now are two key sectors at this point in time. The first is anything related to supply chain disruption and the second is anything that related to food security or agritech. And our investment theses are always really thinking through five years from now, which industries are massively different to five years ago. So where are we at inflection points? What's interesting? Where can cutting edge technology impact one hundreds of millons of lives in a very meaningful and financially awarding way as well. So when we think about supply chain and what's happened over the last two years, we think about it all the way from material science manufacturing where we still important ninety percent of everything and we want to start importing us through to logistics, so drone logistics on a commercial level versus using old trucks on rickety roads So when we think about the whole value chain of supply chain, our reckoning is if we're going to build manufacturing for this part of the world right now, if we're going to really disrupt supply chains, we're going to do them the way of twenty twenty three. We're not going to do them the way of the nineties. We're not going to build manufacturing.

So, first of all, thank you so much for having me and taking the time for us. As we see our part of the world, we take a look as you mentioned all of midlist in Africa, we are sector agnostics, so we invest across all sectors. What's really exciting to us right now are two key sectors at this point in time. The first is anything related to supply chain disruption and the second is anything that related to food security or agritech. And our investment theses are always really thinking through five years from now, which industries are massively different to five years ago. So where are we at inflection points? What's interesting? Where can cutting edge technology impact one hundreds of millons of lives in a very meaningful and financially awarding way as well. So when we think about supply chain and what's happened over the last two years, we think about it all the way from material science manufacturing where we still important ninety percent of everything and we want to start importing us through to logistics, so drone logistics on a commercial level versus using old trucks on rickety roads So when we think about the whole value chain of supply chain, our reckoning is if we're going to build manufacturing for this part of the world right now, if we're going to really disrupt supply chains, we're going to do them the way of twenty twenty three. We're not going to do them the way of the nineties. We're not going to build manufacturing.

Facility that they're old.

Facility that they're old.

It's going to be three D printing at differ manufacturing. That's really one of the key areas right now is how do we come into our own when it comes to manufacturing and supply chains.

It's going to be three D printing at differ manufacturing. That's really one of the key areas right now is how do we come into our own when it comes to manufacturing and supply chains.

Okay, so you talk management manufacturing and supply chains, but you also said another area of interest for you is anything that has to do with food accessibility, food security. Talk to me about how you are able to or working to grow food in the desert. I mean, I mean, what are the companies that you're investing in that allow for that.

Okay, so you talk management manufacturing and supply chains, but you also said another area of interest for you is anything that has to do with food accessibility, food security. Talk to me about how you are able to or working to grow food in the desert. I mean, I mean, what are the companies that you're investing in that allow for that.

So there's a few, and you know, one of them is very exciting because it's really at that intersection of food and energy. So one of the company's red Sea, really has found a way to reduce energy consumption for the purpose of virtical farming.

So there's a few, and you know, one of them is very exciting because it's really at that intersection of food and energy. So one of the company's red Sea, really has found a way to reduce energy consumption for the purpose of virtical farming.

By ninety five percent by the way they desell a water.

By ninety five percent by the way they desell a water.

And this is really at the crux of everything because where we are there isn't ourble.

And this is really at the crux of everything because where we are there isn't ourble.

Land, so you want to do vertical farming.

Land, so you want to do vertical farming.

Five years ago, vertical farming was something that was in proof of concept. We reckon five years from now, a lot of the food that's you know, being served in the region is going to be farmed in the region in these new innovative ways. And yet one of the biggest impediments to that was how much energy costs and how much energy consumption.

Five years ago, vertical farming was something that was in proof of concept. We reckon five years from now, a lot of the food that's you know, being served in the region is going to be farmed in the region in these new innovative ways. And yet one of the biggest impediments to that was how much energy costs and how much energy consumption.

Well to explain that, because I don't think everyone knows what vertical farming is, it's the idea that you're you know, you're stacking these crops on one another rather than laying them out on the ground. And they're greenhouses oftentimes, and you know, you need the lights and water in order for them to grow, right, And that's what makes some energy.

Well to explain that, because I don't think everyone knows what vertical farming is, it's the idea that you're you know, you're stacking these crops on one another rather than laying them out on the ground. And they're greenhouses oftentimes, and you know, you need the lights and water in order for them to grow, right, And that's what makes some energy.

And water is often the biggest energy consumer.

And water is often the biggest energy consumer.

So if you want to desalinate water, because a lot of these are hydroponics, so you need a lot of water, and a lot of the water that gets desalinated uses a lot of energy, and that's often.

So if you want to desalinate water, because a lot of these are hydroponics, so you need a lot of water, and a lot of the water that gets desalinated uses a lot of energy, and that's often.

The biggest cost factor.

The biggest cost factor.

So as we move from a world where you know, vertical farms or indoor farming and the way you stack them in hydropronics is still improved a concept and commercially unviable, and you want to take that so that that's actually how you produce most of the food. You really need to reduce energy consumption, and that's actually something that's across the region. So when we think about energy consumption, you have seven hundred and sixteen million people in the world without power, of which seven hundred million are in Africa. So when we think about how we consume energy and how we go down, you know, building businesses that require less energy, not because we you know, we care about the planet, which we obviously do, but because it's a better business because you cannot scale if you're consuming his huge amount of energy. And now that we've crack some of these things, red Seat Farms is exporting their technology and retrofitting farms in the US farms in Europe. Is this simply better tech?

So as we move from a world where you know, vertical farms or indoor farming and the way you stack them in hydropronics is still improved a concept and commercially unviable, and you want to take that so that that's actually how you produce most of the food. You really need to reduce energy consumption, and that's actually something that's across the region. So when we think about energy consumption, you have seven hundred and sixteen million people in the world without power, of which seven hundred million are in Africa. So when we think about how we consume energy and how we go down, you know, building businesses that require less energy, not because we you know, we care about the planet, which we obviously do, but because it's a better business because you cannot scale if you're consuming his huge amount of energy. And now that we've crack some of these things, red Seat Farms is exporting their technology and retrofitting farms in the US farms in Europe. Is this simply better tech?

Yeah, But I guess one of the challenges that you always face, especially for technology that would most benefit places like Africa, places outside the Gulf in the Middle East, is that this is the return is not necessarily there to put in a lot of R and D to produce food, uh from places that don't have a lot of water, or to electrify places in Africa that have, you know, very low standards of life. I mean, can you talk to me about some of the ways that you are getting past some of these challenges.

Yeah, But I guess one of the challenges that you always face, especially for technology that would most benefit places like Africa, places outside the Gulf in the Middle East, is that this is the return is not necessarily there to put in a lot of R and D to produce food, uh from places that don't have a lot of water, or to electrify places in Africa that have, you know, very low standards of life. I mean, can you talk to me about some of the ways that you are getting past some of these challenges.

So I think that's where the opportunity sit.

So I think that's where the opportunity sit.

So for us, as we think about these technologies that are available globally, and there is R and D in our part of the world a little bit, not as much as we'd like, but a little.

So for us, as we think about these technologies that are available globally, and there is R and D in our part of the world a little bit, not as much as we'd like, but a little.

Bit, there's that opportunity to leap frog.

Bit, there's that opportunity to leap frog.

So when we think about vertical farming, if we had wanted to do that the traditional way or the way that it was done even just ten years ago in North America or in Europe, that consumed a lot of energy, a lot of water which wasn't available, so we had to leap frog and think how can we do this better? And the irony is that these are two scientists, one British and one American, that were sitting in Saudi Arabia in the desert and discovered that the way that the cactus plant Pisani's water is much more energy efficient and emulated that. But the concept of leapfrogging is something that's really important. So we don't have incumbents in our industries because industries are still nascent. When you think about something like financial inclusion, just five years ago, eighty five percent of the people in the region were not financially included. Now that's down to fifty five percent. And we didn't get there by building banks. We got there with cutting edge fintech. When we think about healthcare, we have one doctor of per thousand people and mean now compared to four per thousand in North America or Europe and zero point two per thousand and South So hoar in Africa, we're never going to have enough hospitals, We're never going to have enough doctors. The question becomes how do you use technology to give healthcare access? And therefore you have the adoption of tech in a much faster way, especially given sixty percent of the population is under the age of thirty, so your digital adoption is instant and media. There are no incumbents or lobbies from the healthcare industry of the finance trying to stop these tech companies and their regulators actually want these solutions, right, so you end up on a world Sorry.

So when we think about vertical farming, if we had wanted to do that the traditional way or the way that it was done even just ten years ago in North America or in Europe, that consumed a lot of energy, a lot of water which wasn't available, so we had to leap frog and think how can we do this better? And the irony is that these are two scientists, one British and one American, that were sitting in Saudi Arabia in the desert and discovered that the way that the cactus plant Pisani's water is much more energy efficient and emulated that. But the concept of leapfrogging is something that's really important. So we don't have incumbents in our industries because industries are still nascent. When you think about something like financial inclusion, just five years ago, eighty five percent of the people in the region were not financially included. Now that's down to fifty five percent. And we didn't get there by building banks. We got there with cutting edge fintech. When we think about healthcare, we have one doctor of per thousand people and mean now compared to four per thousand in North America or Europe and zero point two per thousand and South So hoar in Africa, we're never going to have enough hospitals, We're never going to have enough doctors. The question becomes how do you use technology to give healthcare access? And therefore you have the adoption of tech in a much faster way, especially given sixty percent of the population is under the age of thirty, so your digital adoption is instant and media. There are no incumbents or lobbies from the healthcare industry of the finance trying to stop these tech companies and their regulators actually want these solutions, right, so you end up on a world Sorry.

Go ahead, Well, nor we only have a couple minutes left, and I want to make sure we get to the fundraising aspect of this, because you know, we talk a lot about venture capital funding drying up over the last couple of years, and I'm wondering, from your perspective, as the founder and managing partner at Global Ventures, how much of your time is spent fundraising and how hard has it been to raise money for funds.

Go ahead, Well, nor we only have a couple minutes left, and I want to make sure we get to the fundraising aspect of this, because you know, we talk a lot about venture capital funding drying up over the last couple of years, and I'm wondering, from your perspective, as the founder and managing partner at Global Ventures, how much of your time is spent fundraising and how hard has it been to raise money for funds.

So we are on our third fund now, which we've managed to successfully raise most of this year, so we're very fortunate. I think our part of the world is still a great opportunity company is because of the lack of the quantum of capital. So last year was our peak year in terms of venture funding at three billion dollars for all of the Mena region, which is still a drop in the bucket of global venture. So anything about three billion dollars was all deals all year across all the Mena countries.

So we are on our third fund now, which we've managed to successfully raise most of this year, so we're very fortunate. I think our part of the world is still a great opportunity company is because of the lack of the quantum of capital. So last year was our peak year in terms of venture funding at three billion dollars for all of the Mena region, which is still a drop in the bucket of global venture. So anything about three billion dollars was all deals all year across all the Mena countries.

So it's an nazing ecosystem.

So it's an nazing ecosystem.

It's fast growing, it's a very young population, and it's an emerging and growing economy. So most of our investors are actually international investors in institutions in the US and in Europe that want access to growth markets, and by coming in and looking at a venture in the region, they find companies that are much more capital efficient because of the lack of capital and the ecosystem.

It's fast growing, it's a very young population, and it's an emerging and growing economy. So most of our investors are actually international investors in institutions in the US and in Europe that want access to growth markets, and by coming in and looking at a venture in the region, they find companies that are much more capital efficient because of the lack of capital and the ecosystem.

A court of our portfolio is.

A court of our portfolio is.

EBADA positive, which for a Series A investor is highly unlikely in most other markets. And you're using technology to solve real world problems. So yeah, really the commreation of that has.

EBADA positive, which for a Series A investor is highly unlikely in most other markets. And you're using technology to solve real world problems. So yeah, really the commreation of that has.

Enabled growth rather than a shrinkage so far.

Enabled growth rather than a shrinkage so far.

Look, I'm just quickly here because we only have about a minute left. But I mean, look, there's so much money coming out of the Gulf right now, and you, you know, being based and deb see that probably have access to that that others don't. I mean, what priorities do you have in funding projects or what part does those investors have in funding projects that other investors you know elsewhere sitting in the United States or elsewhere don't.

Look, I'm just quickly here because we only have about a minute left. But I mean, look, there's so much money coming out of the Gulf right now, and you, you know, being based and deb see that probably have access to that that others don't. I mean, what priorities do you have in funding projects or what part does those investors have in funding projects that other investors you know elsewhere sitting in the United States or elsewhere don't.

So you know, when we're funding projects, we're looking purely at the technology. Our investors, as I mentioned, are sixty percent of our capital does not come from the region.

So you know, when we're funding projects, we're looking purely at the technology. Our investors, as I mentioned, are sixty percent of our capital does not come from the region.

It comes from the US and Europe, and.

It comes from the US and Europe, and.

People are really looking for where there are growth areas in the world where we can use tech to impact hundreds of wons of lives to get the returns we're looking for. Our founders are globally competitive, and yet the market's so nascent and young and small that valuations make sense. So I think that that applies to regional investors to global investors. I think people are just looking for great entrepreneurs building meaningful companies in growing markets.

People are really looking for where there are growth areas in the world where we can use tech to impact hundreds of wons of lives to get the returns we're looking for. Our founders are globally competitive, and yet the market's so nascent and young and small that valuations make sense. So I think that that applies to regional investors to global investors. I think people are just looking for great entrepreneurs building meaningful companies in growing markets.

Nor Suede is founder and managing partner at Global Ventures. Joining us this afternoon from London, or I should say this evening from London. Nor thanks so much for taking the time. Really do appreciate.

Nor Suede is founder and managing partner at Global Ventures. Joining us this afternoon from London, or I should say this evening from London. Nor thanks so much for taking the time. Really do appreciate.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Well, there's this great column from Bloomberg Opinion Today. It's written by a professor at Fordham University's a theology professor, Michael Pepper. It's all about jenerative AI in the classroom. So when he first experimented with the Chat GPT, he writes that he was not impressed, but that was before he played the GPT four, which was released back in March, and he actually found the newest version of openii's multimodal LM Large Language Model can now produce papers that are better than the average students. So that's just between different versions of Chat GPT. So it raises a lot of questions about the role that jenerative AI should play in the classroom. How should teachers use it, how should students use it? How worried should pair be that our kids are not going to learn how to do anything because of chat GPT. Hopefully Chris Callison Birch has the answers. He spent years studying generative AI. He's Associate Professor of Computer information Science at the University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science. He's a Sloan Research Fellow, and he's gotten faculty research awards from companies we talk about every day at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Roadblocks and more, and gotten funding from DARPAY, the NSF and more as well. He joins us on Zoom from Philadelphia professor.

Well, there's this great column from Bloomberg Opinion Today. It's written by a professor at Fordham University's a theology professor, Michael Pepper. It's all about jenerative AI in the classroom. So when he first experimented with the Chat GPT, he writes that he was not impressed, but that was before he played the GPT four, which was released back in March, and he actually found the newest version of openii's multimodal LM Large Language Model can now produce papers that are better than the average students. So that's just between different versions of Chat GPT. So it raises a lot of questions about the role that jenerative AI should play in the classroom. How should teachers use it, how should students use it? How worried should pair be that our kids are not going to learn how to do anything because of chat GPT. Hopefully Chris Callison Birch has the answers. He spent years studying generative AI. He's Associate Professor of Computer information Science at the University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science. He's a Sloan Research Fellow, and he's gotten faculty research awards from companies we talk about every day at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Roadblocks and more, and gotten funding from DARPAY, the NSF and more as well. He joins us on Zoom from Philadelphia professor.

How are you great? Thanks for having me, well, thanks so much.

How are you great? Thanks for having me, well, thanks so much.

For joining us. So a lot of parents are sending their kids back to school this week here in New York and other areas of the country. School started already. I know that one thing they're thinking about is how is my kid going to be using Chat GPT or Generative AI in the classroom versus how should he or she be using it?

For joining us. So a lot of parents are sending their kids back to school this week here in New York and other areas of the country. School started already. I know that one thing they're thinking about is how is my kid going to be using Chat GPT or Generative AI in the classroom versus how should he or she be using it?

What are your thoughts?

What are your thoughts?

Absolutely so, I was listening to a podcast this summer that speculated that there were a downturn in the use of GPT as a result of its being summer break, and the reason for that is basically, Chat GPT is a homework machine, so we should see a corresponding rise again now that students are back in the classroom.

Absolutely so, I was listening to a podcast this summer that speculated that there were a downturn in the use of GPT as a result of its being summer break, and the reason for that is basically, Chat GPT is a homework machine, so we should see a corresponding rise again now that students are back in the classroom.

Is that I think that's okay? Hold on, that's like Is that a concern though.

Is that I think that's okay? Hold on, that's like Is that a concern though.

For the for open AI or for US educators.

For the for open AI or for US educators.

For educators not for open AI?

For educators not for open AI?

Certainly, certainly so. When Chat GPT was released last November, it had this breakthrough moment where everyone suddenly became aware of it, and at PEN we had this giant meeting of all the faculty where it was on everyone's radar. As a potential concern. And I think we're now just beginning to navigate what are good uses of generative AI versus not good uses of generative AI, and I think that those are going to vary depending on what level of education you're at, whether it's high school or below versus college use, and also sort of what level of mastery students have achieved already. I think there's like an interesting analogy with using calculators in the classroom, where you want students to build fundamental skills first before you give them a technology that allows them to replace those fundamental skills.

Certainly, certainly so. When Chat GPT was released last November, it had this breakthrough moment where everyone suddenly became aware of it, and at PEN we had this giant meeting of all the faculty where it was on everyone's radar. As a potential concern. And I think we're now just beginning to navigate what are good uses of generative AI versus not good uses of generative AI, and I think that those are going to vary depending on what level of education you're at, whether it's high school or below versus college use, and also sort of what level of mastery students have achieved already. I think there's like an interesting analogy with using calculators in the classroom, where you want students to build fundamental skills first before you give them a technology that allows them to replace those fundamental skills.

So are you going to allow your students to write essays with chat GPT?

So are you going to allow your students to write essays with chat GPT?

I am in a computer science department, so we have fewer essays, but we anogous problem with writing code.

I am in a computer science department, so we have fewer essays, but we anogous problem with writing code.

Can chat GPT write code?

Can chat GPT write code?

Chat GPT can write code? Over the summer, I was using it and basically pair programming with it, and it's magnificent. Like, I think this is going to be a tool that enters into all sorts of disciplines and that becomes an integral part of how everyone does their regular job. And so I want my students to be able to use this technology. And I want them to be able to enhance their own skill set with it, but I want to make sure that I'm navigating it correctly. So in my mind, there's like a there's an easy distinction to make. So what we want to avoid is unthinking use use of this technology. So if you simply ask GPT to write your high school essay or to complete my programming assignment, and you do it in an unthinking manner, meaning you just submit it's output, that's clearly a harmful use of this technology where the student doesn't learn anything, we're not furthering their educational goals, and the output is crucially likely to be wrong in many interesting ways. These models are not perfect. They often hallucinate. So if you're a student listening to Boomberg Radio, you're probably clever enough to make sure that you fact check everything that it generates.

Chat GPT can write code? Over the summer, I was using it and basically pair programming with it, and it's magnificent. Like, I think this is going to be a tool that enters into all sorts of disciplines and that becomes an integral part of how everyone does their regular job. And so I want my students to be able to use this technology. And I want them to be able to enhance their own skill set with it, but I want to make sure that I'm navigating it correctly. So in my mind, there's like a there's an easy distinction to make. So what we want to avoid is unthinking use use of this technology. So if you simply ask GPT to write your high school essay or to complete my programming assignment, and you do it in an unthinking manner, meaning you just submit it's output, that's clearly a harmful use of this technology where the student doesn't learn anything, we're not furthering their educational goals, and the output is crucially likely to be wrong in many interesting ways. These models are not perfect. They often hallucinate. So if you're a student listening to Boomberg Radio, you're probably clever enough to make sure that you fact check everything that it generates.

So what do you want to see your students produce? And forgive my ignorance of code here, what do you want to see them produce using JGBT.

So what do you want to see your students produce? And forgive my ignorance of code here, what do you want to see them produce using JGBT.

So I think that the analogy that I draw is essentially like what kind of collaboration would I allow a pair of students to do? And so that kind of collaboration should be allowable between a student and the generative AI system. I wouldn't allow a student to copy directly the code from their friends without understanding it and without like thinking through and learning anything about how to do it. I allow students to discuss the problems and gain a better understanding, but not to directly copy anything. And I think the same could hold for a generative AI. So you should be allowed to understand a problem. And I think that generative AI is really magnificent as a personalized tutor, So you could use it to explore a topic, provide examples of something that you're learning in class, and maybe you could use it. So you've already mastered.

So I think that the analogy that I draw is essentially like what kind of collaboration would I allow a pair of students to do? And so that kind of collaboration should be allowable between a student and the generative AI system. I wouldn't allow a student to copy directly the code from their friends without understanding it and without like thinking through and learning anything about how to do it. I allow students to discuss the problems and gain a better understanding, but not to directly copy anything. And I think the same could hold for a generative AI. So you should be allowed to understand a problem. And I think that generative AI is really magnificent as a personalized tutor, So you could use it to explore a topic, provide examples of something that you're learning in class, and maybe you could use it. So you've already mastered.

So we only have a couple of minutes left, and I'm concern I'm certainly a concerned parent. My kids aren't old enough to be doing homework at this point. But I know that if I were in school, you know, this is something that we'd all be looking for help with when it comes to homework. So to remove yourself from the college professor and put yourself in the position of, you know, an eighth grade teacher or something, how do kids use this technology in a way that's actually productive and not just a crutch.

So we only have a couple of minutes left, and I'm concern I'm certainly a concerned parent. My kids aren't old enough to be doing homework at this point. But I know that if I were in school, you know, this is something that we'd all be looking for help with when it comes to homework. So to remove yourself from the college professor and put yourself in the position of, you know, an eighth grade teacher or something, how do kids use this technology in a way that's actually productive and not just a crutch.

Right, So students shouldn't use this to complete their homework assignments for them. They shouldn't use it when it's expressly forbidden. But if you're an educator, I think there's lots of really amazing ways that you can integrate this into your classroom. There's lots of really great uses of generative AI for creative, creative, creative applications. You can use it to generate images, to help illustrate things and really empower students to realize their creative visions in very exciting ways. My nine year old and I are designing a movie together, generating images using mid journey, creating voices using eleven labs, and all sorts of things where we have this really spectacular creative project together, and I think that those could be transferred into the classroom as well.

Right, So students shouldn't use this to complete their homework assignments for them. They shouldn't use it when it's expressly forbidden. But if you're an educator, I think there's lots of really amazing ways that you can integrate this into your classroom. There's lots of really great uses of generative AI for creative, creative, creative applications. You can use it to generate images, to help illustrate things and really empower students to realize their creative visions in very exciting ways. My nine year old and I are designing a movie together, generating images using mid journey, creating voices using eleven labs, and all sorts of things where we have this really spectacular creative project together, and I think that those could be transferred into the classroom as well.

Pretty cool talk. Explain just in thirty seconds what mid journey is and how you do something like that. It's like the chat GPT for images, right.

Pretty cool talk. Explain just in thirty seconds what mid journey is and how you do something like that. It's like the chat GPT for images, right.

That's right. So mid journey is a generative AI that lets you input a prompt, so you could say, AH would cut print of a playing a banjo, and it'll render that for you. And it's really amazing, so I totally recommend that parents try it out with their kids. It's great for imagination games.

That's right. So mid journey is a generative AI that lets you input a prompt, so you could say, AH would cut print of a playing a banjo, and it'll render that for you. And it's really amazing, so I totally recommend that parents try it out with their kids. It's great for imagination games.

Very cool stuff. Hey, Chris, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate you taking the time this afternoon. Chris Callison Birch is an associate professor of computer information and information Science, I should say, at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Engineering and Applied Science. He joins us this afternoon on zoom You listen.

Very cool stuff. Hey, Chris, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate you taking the time this afternoon. Chris Callison Birch is an associate professor of computer information and information Science, I should say, at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Engineering and Applied Science. He joins us this afternoon on zoom You listen.

Yeah, here challenges so much as to make your challenges as a parent so much more different.

Yeah, here challenges so much as to make your challenges as a parent so much more different.

I know, M.

I know, M.

A journal.

A journal.

Now about you?

Now about you?

Let me drive?

Let me drive?

Oh no, no, no, no, all right, please.

Oh no, no, no, no, all right, please.

Excuse I want to drive.

Excuse I want to drive.

It's a good question.

It's a good question.

This is the drive to the clothes Tim thing well by around on Bloomberg Radio.

This is the drive to the clothes Tim thing well by around on Bloomberg Radio.

It's already that time of day. We're less than eighteen minutes away from the close of US equity trading here at New York. The dow down. We just heard the numbers from Charlie half a percentage point, the S and P down seven tenths of one percent at forty four to sixty three in the NASDAC down one point two percent. Let's drive to the close with Eric Friedman, a chief investment officer at US Bank asset Man. I've been joining us on zoom from Raleigh, North Carolina this afternoon. Eric, Good to have you with us. How are you?

It's already that time of day. We're less than eighteen minutes away from the close of US equity trading here at New York. The dow down. We just heard the numbers from Charlie half a percentage point, the S and P down seven tenths of one percent at forty four to sixty three in the NASDAC down one point two percent. Let's drive to the close with Eric Friedman, a chief investment officer at US Bank asset Man. I've been joining us on zoom from Raleigh, North Carolina this afternoon. Eric, Good to have you with us. How are you?

I'm doing great. Tim, How are you today?

I'm doing great. Tim, How are you today?

We're doing pretty well.

We're doing pretty well.

Uh.

Uh.

You know my coaker today. Simone raised a question earlier with our own Molly Smith on the economics team, and she said, you know, you look at this what we get from the anecdotal Uh, I call it anec data from the FED Beige Book, you know, the survey that it does of local areas around the country and businesses, and it seems like everything is great. What's not so great?

You know my coaker today. Simone raised a question earlier with our own Molly Smith on the economics team, and she said, you know, you look at this what we get from the anecdotal Uh, I call it anec data from the FED Beige Book, you know, the survey that it does of local areas around the country and businesses, and it seems like everything is great. What's not so great?

Yeah, I think there's a couple of things that we have to think about. We've been using this analogy. Tim and Simone of the Fed acting like that personal trainer sitting next to your treadmill and really keeping that ramp elevated. And so what I think you're seeing is that the runner is still doing well. It's still jogging and keep being up a very strong pace. That the question is how long can that pace continue? And we do think there will be more of an incremental slowing as opposed to a just a absolute stop by that proverbial runner. So we'd expect the data to still be positive for the next couple of months. And there's lots of reasons for that. The labor markets in great shape, the overall wage growth remains strong, and so that gives on top of the still accumulating stimulus savings, that gives a lot of fuel if you will stopping and how can you surely meaning already even saying it. But that's the sort of thing that we think will start to slow down as we get deeper into let's call it holiday season and into the turn of twenty twenty four.

Yeah, I think there's a couple of things that we have to think about. We've been using this analogy. Tim and Simone of the Fed acting like that personal trainer sitting next to your treadmill and really keeping that ramp elevated. And so what I think you're seeing is that the runner is still doing well. It's still jogging and keep being up a very strong pace. That the question is how long can that pace continue? And we do think there will be more of an incremental slowing as opposed to a just a absolute stop by that proverbial runner. So we'd expect the data to still be positive for the next couple of months. And there's lots of reasons for that. The labor markets in great shape, the overall wage growth remains strong, and so that gives on top of the still accumulating stimulus savings, that gives a lot of fuel if you will stopping and how can you surely meaning already even saying it. But that's the sort of thing that we think will start to slow down as we get deeper into let's call it holiday season and into the turn of twenty twenty four.

What about the holidays season or the changing of the calendar pushes puts this pressure on the consumer or the overall economy.

What about the holidays season or the changing of the calendar pushes puts this pressure on the consumer or the overall economy.

Yeah, you know, I think sill there's probably a level of leno clog, canspeakabous consumption, the desire just to keep accumulating stuff. I think there's there's still this desire to go out and travel. There's still you know, there's more talk about the replacement cycle. Of course, four years ago, in a couple of months, that's when the COVID epidemic really forced so many people to be at home and so the replacement cycle on goods starts to kick in, as well as just again making sure you're taking care of your mother in law at holiday season. Those are important things. So those are things that can drive spending. And the question, I think for all of investors, including ourselves as well, what's what's after that? Will there be enough accumulated savings and will be the job market remain healthy? We do think again we have more of a glass half full forward perspective, but there are a couple of speed bumps along the way again, back to school, return to holiday shopping season, as well as just that cumulative impact of higher interest rates. Those should serve as that again proverbial, let's call it personal trinder, keeping the button up elevated for longer than anybody would like.

Yeah, you know, I think sill there's probably a level of leno clog, canspeakabous consumption, the desire just to keep accumulating stuff. I think there's there's still this desire to go out and travel. There's still you know, there's more talk about the replacement cycle. Of course, four years ago, in a couple of months, that's when the COVID epidemic really forced so many people to be at home and so the replacement cycle on goods starts to kick in, as well as just again making sure you're taking care of your mother in law at holiday season. Those are important things. So those are things that can drive spending. And the question, I think for all of investors, including ourselves as well, what's what's after that? Will there be enough accumulated savings and will be the job market remain healthy? We do think again we have more of a glass half full forward perspective, but there are a couple of speed bumps along the way again, back to school, return to holiday shopping season, as well as just that cumulative impact of higher interest rates. Those should serve as that again proverbial, let's call it personal trinder, keeping the button up elevated for longer than anybody would like.

Now that you mentioned that, I think I am due for any iPhone this year, it's been it's been a few years.

Now that you mentioned that, I think I am due for any iPhone this year, it's been it's been a few years.

I don't know.

I don't know.

I don't even know what I have at this point. It still works pretty well, that's the thing. So maybe I'll go three years before I do an upgrade. Okay, so Eric, I know you can't talk specific equities, but let's talk sectors here. What are you doing with capitol right now.

I don't even know what I have at this point. It still works pretty well, that's the thing. So maybe I'll go three years before I do an upgrade. Okay, so Eric, I know you can't talk specific equities, but let's talk sectors here. What are you doing with capitol right now.

Yeah, one is that we're trimming some gains in technology, and that's not to say that we think technology is completely overboad. There's there's a lot of things that obviously COMPRISEE technology. We think that things like cyber things like AI will remain in vogue, and so we'd just be again harvesting some gains there as opposed to just extending. And again, our long term viewpoint is that you do want to have an outsized allocation to technology and probably healthcare. Those are the two sectors that we favor on more of a enduring basis. I think the other thing that's really picking up of interest, at least in our screens is energy, and that's a space that does spit up some cash flow. They've generally been very capital disciplined as a group. They've been forced to be capital disciplined. Shareholders have said, look, you can't have this. Pavlova in a response of just when oil prices go up, you go out and try to find more that has really been rained in. And so you're seeing global demands still hang in there. You're seeing a more disciplined operating environment for EMP companies as well as R and M folks, and so that's the space we'd pay attention to. The last thing I'd say is Japan is looking more and more interesting. It obviously has had a good run already. There's all sorts of things happening within that economy that we think are attractives. Those would be a couple of areas that we'd have on your radar screens if they're not already.

Yeah, one is that we're trimming some gains in technology, and that's not to say that we think technology is completely overboad. There's there's a lot of things that obviously COMPRISEE technology. We think that things like cyber things like AI will remain in vogue, and so we'd just be again harvesting some gains there as opposed to just extending. And again, our long term viewpoint is that you do want to have an outsized allocation to technology and probably healthcare. Those are the two sectors that we favor on more of a enduring basis. I think the other thing that's really picking up of interest, at least in our screens is energy, and that's a space that does spit up some cash flow. They've generally been very capital disciplined as a group. They've been forced to be capital disciplined. Shareholders have said, look, you can't have this. Pavlova in a response of just when oil prices go up, you go out and try to find more that has really been rained in. And so you're seeing global demands still hang in there. You're seeing a more disciplined operating environment for EMP companies as well as R and M folks, and so that's the space we'd pay attention to. The last thing I'd say is Japan is looking more and more interesting. It obviously has had a good run already. There's all sorts of things happening within that economy that we think are attractives. Those would be a couple of areas that we'd have on your radar screens if they're not already.

Yeah. On the energy front, I mean, we're looking at WTI right now at eighty seven sixty five. That's some of the highest we've been in a long time. I mean, but a lot of that seems to be dependent on the Saudi's, the Russians rather than necessarily the oil companies themselves, at least the oil price. What do you look for when you look through the sector, what kind of companies stand out as winners versus losers.

Yeah. On the energy front, I mean, we're looking at WTI right now at eighty seven sixty five. That's some of the highest we've been in a long time. I mean, but a lot of that seems to be dependent on the Saudi's, the Russians rather than necessarily the oil companies themselves, at least the oil price. What do you look for when you look through the sector, what kind of companies stand out as winners versus losers.

Yeah, there's a couple of things that we pay attention to. And you're rightfully you point out that the macro price of oil does not necessarily mean that the oil companies, again, whether it's the super majors or the exploration production or the refiners, are necessarily going to do well. So a couple things We pay attention to number one, as I mentioned a second ago, that capital discipline. Are we seeing return of capital to shareholders? Are we seeing just blatant capex overruns? That has not the case. We're very encouraged by that. Number two is it's a related point and not to get too wonkish, but you know, return on invested capital. So once people are being more capital disciplined, are they finding ways to actually turn that capital discipline into higher airings per share? And that's something that we actually have seen consistently, particularly across the supermajors, and that's an area that again without the ability to talk about specific companies, that's a space that we think has been the most disciplined. These are the groups that will benefit from Again, not that we want the challenges in Russia or Ukraine to denistially be sources of profit, but one of the things we pay attention to is just what is a global response. And again that response has been still a lack of supply relative to demand, which we think will carry on throughout the course of this year and potentially early next year. So we look at the super majors, that'd be a place we pay attention to. Also, some of those more disciplined next equation and production managers. Those are also spots to what to pay attention to as well.

Yeah, there's a couple of things that we pay attention to. And you're rightfully you point out that the macro price of oil does not necessarily mean that the oil companies, again, whether it's the super majors or the exploration production or the refiners, are necessarily going to do well. So a couple things We pay attention to number one, as I mentioned a second ago, that capital discipline. Are we seeing return of capital to shareholders? Are we seeing just blatant capex overruns? That has not the case. We're very encouraged by that. Number two is it's a related point and not to get too wonkish, but you know, return on invested capital. So once people are being more capital disciplined, are they finding ways to actually turn that capital discipline into higher airings per share? And that's something that we actually have seen consistently, particularly across the supermajors, and that's an area that again without the ability to talk about specific companies, that's a space that we think has been the most disciplined. These are the groups that will benefit from Again, not that we want the challenges in Russia or Ukraine to denistially be sources of profit, but one of the things we pay attention to is just what is a global response. And again that response has been still a lack of supply relative to demand, which we think will carry on throughout the course of this year and potentially early next year. So we look at the super majors, that'd be a place we pay attention to. Also, some of those more disciplined next equation and production managers. Those are also spots to what to pay attention to as well.

I want to ask my last question in a nod to Carol, who's out on vacation and she can't get angry with me for asking you about the FED, But how close they are you watching what the FED does in September and what do you think it's going to do in November.

I want to ask my last question in a nod to Carol, who's out on vacation and she can't get angry with me for asking you about the FED, But how close they are you watching what the FED does in September and what do you think it's going to do in November.

Yeah, I think, tim, it's the it's the primary focus point right now. You know, we are in that that shoulder month period where we're pretty much done with earnings and September twenty first is looming fast upon us. And as a great Rod Stewart said, you know, this is the time and I should be back at school, and again we're all being forced to pay attention to what's happening with the FED. So we think the bias is going to be a pause for this meeting, but also to keep optionality for the balance of the year. And so we do think that not just what's happening within core services, which remains sticky, I mean that that remains a sticky area, but also some of these non core things, like you mentioned Stu sitting the oil price elevates, that's an issue that the FED member regular.

Yeah, I think, tim, it's the it's the primary focus point right now. You know, we are in that that shoulder month period where we're pretty much done with earnings and September twenty first is looming fast upon us. And as a great Rod Stewart said, you know, this is the time and I should be back at school, and again we're all being forced to pay attention to what's happening with the FED. So we think the bias is going to be a pause for this meeting, but also to keep optionality for the balance of the year. And so we do think that not just what's happening within core services, which remains sticky, I mean that that remains a sticky area, but also some of these non core things, like you mentioned Stu sitting the oil price elevates, that's an issue that the FED member regular.

All Right, Eric Friedman, the chief investment officer in the US Bank Asset Management, joining us this afternoon. I really appreciate you taking the time. You're listening and watching a Bloomberg BusinessWeek on Bloomberg Radio.

All Right, Eric Friedman, the chief investment officer in the US Bank Asset Management, joining us this afternoon. I really appreciate you taking the time. You're listening and watching a Bloomberg BusinessWeek on Bloomberg Radio.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you can get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you can get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal