Broadcasting Live from the Bloomberg Green Festival in Seattle

Published Jul 10, 2024, 8:11 PM

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Sharon Chen, Editor at Bloomberg Green, provides color of the Bloomberg Green Festival where innovators, policymakers, entrepreneurs, artists, activists, musicians and more, explore new solutions spanning the entire climate spectrum. Laur Hesse Fisher, Program Director at MIT Climate Engagement Program, discusses demystifying climate change. Bloomberg Opinion Editor Mark Gongloff explains how hurricane Beryl makes a mockery of Texas climate deniers. And we Drive to the Close with Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. 

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

We're live in Seattle, Tim and I at the Bloomberg Green Festival, and it's four days of programming. You're talking about innovators, entrepreneurs, you're talking about artists, activists, musicians and more. And it's all about exploring news solutions, thinking about climate, the entire climate spectrum. There are a lot of moving parts and you're going to hear over the next couple of hours really some of the different facets of climate change.

Well, joining us here now in Seattle at the Bloomberg Green Festival as Sharon Chan, She's editor at Bloomberg Green. Sharon has Carol mentioned four days of programming, we're talking innovators, policymakers, activists, entrepreneurs.

Musicians more.

How should investors, individuals in the world at large be thinking about that climate spectrum?

Yeah, I mean, so, you know, the whole reason we wanted to do this festival, and it sort of takes a different a little bit of a different approach from your traditional conference. It's really focusing on the solutions to climate change. Oftentimes, when we talk about climate change, it's all about the crisis. It's doom and gloom, it's about how terrible things are.

Going to be.

But at the same time, it's really good to take stock and look at how much progress we've already made, and how much technology has advanced, how many countries have come behind this move to keep temperatures as as low as we can and as much as we can prevent them from rising further. So you know, we're really hoping that this is an event that will galvanize people and help them realize.

That these solutions are very real.

They just need to scale and we need to act now and quickly. So I think when investors think about climate change, you know, there's two elements to it. There's the risk management, which is just so apparent. I mean, we're in Seattle and it's hotter than it's ever in People constantly telling me that.

Yesterday was the hottest that day in particular, and I think like twelve or fourteen years. I mean, it was really warm.

Yeah, and you have this heat wave consuming so much of the US right now. Climate change is real and it's a real problem for businesses and investors as well.

It's a big physical risk to infrastructure.

There's all sorts of unpredictable risks that they have to bake in. Now with seeing these really niche instruments like catastrophe bonds and weather derivatives and stuff like that really booming as people look for different ways to hitch that risk. But at the same time, one point eight trillion dollars flowed into climate investment last year was a record high.

It's still far, far, far from what's.

Needed, but you see investors really seeing the opportunity there in green energy and in new technologies, you.

Know, sre. It's interesting because at the same time, I feel like over the last year or two, we've been like seeing the pushback against kind of woke capitalism and ESG soak a dirty word now, yeah, exactly, But you do see a lot of money going into renewables. We talk about AI data centers, the energy needs again and people are looking to do it in renewable ways, you know. So it's interesting how the climate conversation continues to evolve.

Yeah, it's really a.

Dichotomy between the image of it and the way that it's described and the words that are used, and the very real fact that we have to be investing in these things for energy security, for the future of the planet, for us to continue adapting to a changing climate.

At the same time, we're using more electricity than ever. We talk all the time about how AI.

Is set to you so much.

I mean, it's like a once in a generation moment when it comes to electricity usage. As a result of the compute power, we're not producing energy here in the US, at least more sustainably at this point. We shut down a lot of nuclear reactors over the last decade or so. We're using a lot of fossil fuels to burn to create that energy.

How should we think about that?

Yeah, I mean, the AI climate question is a really big one, and it's you know, the answers are known right now. A lot of these big tech companies argue that eventually the payoffs from what AI will be able to do to help to make climate solutions more efficient, to help make them more easy to implement, will pay off. The basically, the benefits will outweigh the negatives in terms of the emissions. But the reality is that we are emitting that carbon right now, and we're taking a gamble and betting debt AI will eventually pay for itself in terms of the carbon debt.

It's releasing, you know.

Share.

One of the things that increasingly is known, right is that climate change doesn't impact everybody equally. It might depend on where you live, what your job is. Are you in the northern part of the world and the more developed part of the world. Are you in the more developing part of the world. Are you a woman or a girl? Right? And this is something you guys are tackling.

Yeah, I mean the climate question and inequality.

It's just tied so inextrictively together every year at the global climate negotiations, at the cop summit. That is the tension that underpins the summit, which is that the developing countries that contributed the least to climate change are the ones that are going to face the impact the most and are going to be the least equipped to deal with them. And it's the real question of how do we equitively figure out a solution where as many people as possible can stay safe.

What about women and girls specifically, right, there is a difference in terms of them being impacted more so than maybe men.

Yeah, I mean in a lot of places in the world, women and girls are impacted more. They face they feel the impact more harshly because of how they where they work, and where they live and where they go to school, the different kinds of opportunities that they have. And that's why we are doing a panel at the at the Green Festival specifically that we'll talk to women who are trying to change that. And it's not just women and girls facing more of an impact, but also the fact that they face a higher barrier entry when it comes to working on the solution, working in climate institutions, working in climate jobs. They call it the green ceiling. I mean, there's many reasons for it. One of the reasons is that if you want to take an NGO job, you have to have some kind of financial question to fall on, usually if you're a young person to want to go and work in maybe a not so high paying job.

But for something you believe in.

And oftentimes those tend to be people who have more resources that they can lean on. And that's why you're seeing more and more movement in the Angospace Fund to fund grants and different opportunities for girls and women to go into climate work so that they can then bring in more people and hopefully it sort of kicks off this positive cycle.

Okay, I want to talk about a recent story from you and your team about a celebrity backed company, aspirationline.

It's an absolutely great headline.

It brings kind of everybody together, including celebrities to everybody knows Leonardo DiCaprio among others, what's going on with this company?

I mean, you know, it's an example of how there are many many climate solution companies out there, and a lot of them, you know, have really really good missions and really good idea and they want to find different ways to make different sectors more sustainable.

And in this case.

Aspiration, their goal was to create a debit card or credit card that would allow people to invest and shop more sustainably. But you know, the company did run into some problems and it just it's just an example of how a lot of times like these ideas, when it comes to the implementation stage.

That's when you read the rubber really hits.

You know, It's really fascinating, right because it's it's problems, but they're also kind of unraveling, right, and they're facing some of us probes. So you know, this is a company, right that was going to be maybe one of the few green unicorns, and yet has come undone, and you know, it's I don't know, what does it speak to you that people are attracted to investing in this space, right, but not everything's going to be obviously a sure thing.

Yeah, I think that the space is really attractive to people because it's very new, and you know, if you make the right bets, they can really pay off. But at the same time, it's very difficult to do due diligence when a lot of times you're dealing with companies that are doing something that hasn't been done before, and you know, I think that's where you see a lot of things break down sometimes.

Okay, the headline a celebrity backed climate startup unravels after dubious deals.

Check it out on the Bloomberg terminal.

And of course, like another could be another streaming movie, maybe maybe maybe do we need more? The end is still being written, that's true, possibly, Sharon, good luck looking forward to your panels and some of the conversations here and some of the conclusions that come out of it. Sharon Chen so appreciate it. She's editor at Bloomberg Green. Joining us right here from the Bloomberg Green Festival.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple card Play and then brout Auto with a Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

That's not easy being green, having to spend each day the color leaves.

We are all about green. We're at the Bloombergreen Festival, You're in Seattle. Current of the plot does it really well? He knows about being green. One of the things though, that a lot of people don't know necessarily, is all of the facts when it comes to climate change. And it's pretty amazing because there's a lot of misinformation out there and climate disinformation. It is a big theme. Do a Google search, as chat GPT. I did that in prepping for this, and you get lots of entries that pop up about the US, about the globe, about the world at large, and not all of them are correct. Yeah.

The World Economic Forum did a Global Risks report back in twenty twenty four and it ranked misinformation and disinformation is the biggest short term risk to human society, and extreme weather events is the top long term risk. It implies, Carol, that obscuring the facts about climate change can be extremely harmful.

Right, and then throwing social media and misinformation right the velocity it just grows there. Our next guest is working though to get out the correct information on climate change and participating in a panel on demystifying climate with us as Loura Hesse Fisher, she's programmed director of the MIT Climate in Engagement Program onsite at the Bloomberg Green Festival here in Seattle. Welcome, so nice to have you here.

We are living in.

An era of you know, misinformation at large, but definitely with climate. First of all, give us kind of the setup in creating this platform. Did you realize is really out there?

Yeah? Well, thanks Carol and Tim for having me on the show. And you know, there's a lot as you mentioned, when you google climate change, you get a lot of confusing information. And we understand that climate change is hard to understand. So what we do at MIT is we help people get smart quick about climate change. You go online and you not only see the misinformation, but also a lot of the partisan the advocacy that's happening. It's hard to know what to believe and who to trust, so we provide non partisan, science based, easy to understand explainers about climate change, as well as answers to readers questions, how do you know which scientists to trust?

Though?

Well, we fact check everything that we that we publish, so we make sure that we're not just putting out something that we don't understand or we understand ourselves, that we're really doing our due diligence inside of this, and we primarily interview MIT faculty who are trusted at the top of the game.

Okay, but it's getting a lot better than it used to be. Here's some data from a survey recently. It found that those who believe climate change is happening outnumbered those who don't five to one. Over half of the surveys participants said they understand climate change is mostly caused by humans, and if you look at it from just a few years ago in twenty eleven, that group survey said that fifty one percent said Americans would ask scientists whether climate change was a hoax, compared to thirty nine percent in twenty twenty three. I mean, things are really going in the right direction.

Listen to these are good news trends. But that's not the issue anymore. Yes, we have people that we still need to convince that climate change is happening in human calls, but now people have questions. There's this growing climate curious audience that are like, Okay, I hear about all these bad things about wind turbines and solar panels, Are those true? How do I think about carbon capture or planning?

Sometimes you have presidential candidates talking about.

Part Well, that's true, and people are going to be googling and fact checking. We want to make sure that they get the right information and actually the content that we're putting at climate dot MIT dot edu is one of the top research sites coming up on Google search terms. More climbates what are like?

What's some of the top questions that people ask?

Oh, yes, it's a lot of fun actually to see. We get really wonky science questions about like what's happening and why. We get a lot of questions about EV's and batteries, the environmental impact of evs. One of our favorite ones that we get is about trees, planting trees. Why can't we just plant trees as a climate solution. Well, what we do is we say, okay, well, let's look at what would it take to actually plant trees to offset our carbon emissions in the United States. When we walk through that, we realize we're not talking about planting trees. We're talking about planning forests. In order to offset one year of the US's carbon emissions would take a forest the size of New Mexico, and we need to build that forest every single year to offset US emissions. I mean, you start looking at it from that perspective, you can get a sense of Okay, this is not really.

The right solution here.

Well what is the right solution? Because I'll be honest, that does not sound great. No, it doesn't sound like we're moving in the right direction.

Well, we need to The term is decarbonized, right, we need to stop putting in more carbon into the atmosphere than they can take care.

O is it? It's about stop producing carbon?

Well?

This is it? Well, okay, we can have a long conversation about the carbon cycle, and I'm sure it will be very intellectually interesting for everybody. But there are natural pulls from the atmosphere that the Earth does. We need to accelerate some of those in order to pull out the carbon that's already up there. But we also need to stop putting stuff up there because it's been accumulating and it's going to keep accumulating if we can't take it out fast enough. There's this great analogy I like using called the toolbox. We have an energy toolbox of solutions.

Right.

We have wind, we have solder, we have nuclear, And I'm kind of obsessed with this term called nuclear is part of it? Nuclear is part of it.

Yeah, we are increasingly having conversations about it.

And you should be.

So there's this concept of tech logical tribalism. There are people who are all wind, all solar, forget everything else. Then there are people who are all carbon capture, forget about wind. Well, we need to get beyond all of that, right, because each of these technologies have their strengths and have their weaknesses, and we need to have an honest conversation about that.

Just out of care, what do the solar people do at night? Just out of curiosity? Well, I mean do they have big old batteries everywhere?

Yes? I mean energy storage is a big part of the conquation. If you right now you can only have about thirty percent of wind and solar on the grid. In order to you know, kind of keep the grid running and be reliable, you really need to get beyond that and get to energy storage different kinds of battery technologies.

Okay, so let's talk about the battery technology because I think one thing that keeps coming up over and over again is the idea that the batteries have rare earth materials in them. They are built with materials that have questionable labor practices. In some instances, you're digging into the earth to use these things. What do you do when they're dead and they where do you put them? How do you store them?

It's not perfect, it's not perfect, but it's also not a new problem. We've been dealing with this with diamonds. We've been dealing with this with lithium that goes into our computers and our cell phones. I mean, this is a growing industry. But also when we look at the history of coal mining and the dangers that come with coal mining and all the other impacts of that, these are not issues that are isolated. I'm not trying to diminish the impact. It's really important. That's why we need to have these kinds of honest conversations and not turn aside because we favor one technology or the other because our political party tells us that we should.

Is the toolbox tool kit in terms of renewables complete at this point you talk so wheal when you talk nuclear, is there more that we need?

There are some applications where carbon capture is part of the equation, right There are some industries that are hard to decarbonize. We're not saying carbon capture. So when you're emitting, when you're burning fossil fuels, capturing that carbon, putting it under the ground, turning into products. Listen, we're not there with that technology.

It is a solution.

Is it does work, but it's not a climate solution.

Is it a solution because it's not at scale? Or is it because it's so expensive to do?

Because someone's expensive to do. I mean, we're at very high levels of efficiency when it comes to carbon capture. It's still way too expensive, but so are batteries right now. So when I talk about the toolboxes, there might be a small, very important application like kind of last mile of the carbonization for carbon capture. But yeah, wind, solar, nuclear, so we have that constant flow of electricity.

These are very important.

A tiny battery for an electric bike h eight dollars, I mean tiny battery.

We're not there yet, but there's lots of innovation that's happening in this area.

Did you see yesterday here in Seattle it was really hot? How to stay in over a decade for that particular days.

And I live in Philadelphia. It is hot at least here it gets cool at night. It's not doing that in Philly these days.

I have a question, and I would go to your platform and say, is it too late?

Oh my goodness, it is not. So people really don't understand the momentum that is building and through climate dot mit dot EEDU.

We really try to.

Share all the good news stories that are happening in this area.

But is it.

Because you're right too, because it is a much more balanced and nuanced story, or is.

It do you know what I'm saying?

It's gotten hotter earth and there's some things.

So there are climate impacts that are scary and happening, and the progress towards actually solving this problem is happening. The momentum is there. We are decarbonizing faster than the economy is growing, so there's a decoupling of the growth of the economy and how much we're reducing emissions. Wind and solar have never been cheaper, of course, I mean China built more solar in the last year than US has ever built in the history China. Yeah, so businesses really need to get like this is not a.

Our business is leading the way more than government, just real quickly.

Well on some issues and some issues not so much. I mean, we need, you know, with what's happening politically. This is not a fad, even though some people and companies treat climate action as a fad. It's a trend. It's a fast moving train, and we need to get up. What's upring on people on board?

What's the platform again? Where can we find.

Climate mit dot edu. We run a podcast where we talk about all these things in fifteen minute easy to understand segments called til Climate.

We'd love for your folks to listen.

Really good stuff today.

I learned climate. That's what it stands for. It's really pretty cool, cool stuff.

Or thanks you about Laura hesse Fischer program director of the MIT Climate Engagement Program, on site here at the Boomberg Green Festival in Seattle.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern ont Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business And you can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty.

Two days at the Barrel Midland polum was one point four million customers in Houston remained without electricity while the city swelters under a heat advisory. In fact, Houston residents trying to monitor blackouts Carrol in the aftermath, discover that the city's largest electric utility had no working outage map. So here's what they did. They had to rely on an alternative. It's not funny, but it's like, it's not funny, but it's.

Like necessity, right.

Yeah.

They use the what a Burger app to see which of the chain's restaurants were closed.

It's kind of dystopian, it does.

I keep thinking of I think it was the Netflix series Extrapolations, which was all about like climate.

Say black mirror, No, but it could be any of these.

It could be any of these. We are speaking, though, specifically of the state of Texas. No other state has suffered more climate related damage over the past several decades in the Lone Star State, not even Florida, California, or Louisiana. And this is the subject of a Bloomberg Opinion piece.

By Mark Gongloppi's editor at Bloomberg Opinion, he covers global climate issues. He writes about all of this in a recent column. Mark joins us from New Jersey. So, Mark, when we talk about climate and states, oftentimes we talk about California, the wildfires, the high insurance costs, talk about what's happening in Florida with hurricanes and insurance costs there.

Texas is.

Because those other states are too expensive. What's going on in the Lone Star State.

Well, Texas is kind of flies under the radar, but it's uniquely positioned because it's of where it is geographically, and it's also so big, So it's going to be subject, whether you have climate change or not, to a lot of natural disasters. It always has, but climate change is making all of those natural disasters more powerful. It makes thunderstorms more powerful because the hot air holds more moisture. It makes hurricanes more powerful because the warm water gives them more fuel. It leads to more droughts like they had last year. It leads to bigger which fuels bigger wildfires like they had earlier. This year they had their biggest wildfires ever. And so these are and meanwhile, people are pouring into Texas and living there and developing in the suburbs. And so you have this combination of more natural disasters, bigger natural disasters, and more people. So all of that adds up to much more cost.

So Mark naturally, the leader of the state, since they're on the front lines of the climate change disaster that you speak of, he would come out in full force talking about reducing reliance on carbon fuels. He would talk about increasing energy production when it came to sustainable solutions like wind and solar.

Is that what he's doing.

Well, The governor of Texas is actually in Asia right now trying to draw up more business to come to Texas. So and meanwhile, in the years leading up to this disaster and all the disasters they've had in the past couple of years, they have been the government of Texas has been doing everything they can to bottle its fossil fuel industry, which granted is its largest industry by revenue, so it's understandable to some degree. But they have gone out of their way to punish banks and investment and investment firms that they feel aren't being sufficiently catering to the fossil fuel industry. And they've even pass laws and may it illegal for Austin and Houston in places like this to protect their workers during heat. They've kind of gone out of their way to be anti climate change, and they've even tried to punish their own renewable energy industry, which is booming. Actually, they have a lot of solar and win power in Texas to their credit, but they've tried to undermine that by again giving a leg up to fossil fuels.

I got to tell you, Mark, I am blown away by some of the statistics and numbers in your story. You say in Texas tops every other state and damages because of billion dollar weather disaster since nineteen eighty. This is according to Noah. Through early June, it had suffered more than four hundred and seventeen billion in losses because of such events. Since Noah records began, topping Floridas three hundred and ninety eight billion, and then topping Louisiana, topping California. Can Texas really afford all of this?

Well, it could.

It took some steps to first of all, mitigate the climate change, which it's not doing. It's doing the opposite. It's making the climate change worse through its policies. It also needs to invest in its infrastructure. You talk about a million plus people being without power right now, two days after this storm hit. This Remember this was a category one storm, so it wasn't we're not talking about a world killer here. It wasn't a category five, you know, day after tomorrow kind of storm. It was a category one. But those can still be very destructive as long as there's wind and as long as there's rain. And the wind knocked over power lines and took out power. And this is the second time in a couple of months that Houston has been without power at a time when it's extremely hot there. The infrastructure is aging, it isn't exactly climate proofed. So while they need to do more to mitigate the climate change that is making these storms more powerful, they also need to do a lot more to adapt and to make their Houston very plane to fronting excuse me, very prone to flooding because of the way it's designed, it always has been, and that flooding is only getting worse. So they need to do a lot of that. They have the resources, but they need to be channeling them into the right places.

Mark.

We've talked about this in the past in the context of California. But when when we start to see the local economies reflect climate risk in Texas, Like when will people stop moving there as a result? When we start to see people being priced out as a result of or unable to get insurance or insurance it's too expensive because we're not quite seeing that yet, not.

Quite seeing it yet and part of the issue. So we're on our way there. Texas had the biggest we talk about Florida's insurance prices and California's insurance crisis. Texas has a brewing insurance crisis too. It had the biggest jump in home insurance premiums last year in the country. Its property taxes are soaring too. All these people who have moved to Texas for cheap for a living are suddenly finding it's not going to be so cheap anymore because insurance companies who are taken massive losses to l after l season after season with just massive disasters, and so those prices are starting to affect homeowners. Houston led the nation in foreclosures last year, and so it's people are starting to be priced out of the market. But in the meanwhile, our federal bureaucracy is still sort of set up to kind of incentivize people to continue to build and risky areas. We subsidize people who build on the coast of Florida or on the coast of Texas or in dangerous areas. So we need to sort of Texas needs to get to figure out how to solve this problem, but the federal government needs to figure out how to solve this problem too. But in the meantime, prices are going to Eventually, home prices are going to go down. People are going to abandon these areas. But we have a choice as to whether that's in a messy process or a clean process.

You know, Mark, you say in your story you remind us about Governor Abbott passing laws keeping state money out of investment funds that they claim boycott fossil fuels. You talk about you know, Texas intervening in the power market to favor natural gas. They even made it illegal for local officials to protect workers from extreme heat. I mean, it's just one thing after another. Having said that, you also remind us who signs the paychecks really, in terms of politicians who are probably looking to raise money for campaigns, it's the carbon industry. It's the oil and gas industry. And bottom line, it comes down to.

That comes down to that. Meanwhile, you know, they have a problem with their electrical grid. It's not connected to the rest of the country. It's an isolated grid. They have problems with reliability. They will lose power in Texas on what they call blue sky days where there's nothing bad going on, and so one of the things they have to do in order to ensure reliability is keep natural gas commands running. And so they're sort of in this cash twenty two where they have a lot of renewable power. Renewable power actually makes renewable energy is actually much cheaper, drives power costs lower, but that disincentivises natural gas plants, which they feel like they have to keep fueling. In order to keep the grid going. They have to find a better solution to that, because that's not a sustainable solution right now.

Well, check out this column Bloomberg's Mark goonglop It's on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. Beryl makes a mockery of the Texas climate deniers.

Yeah, it's a great story. I have a bunch of family that I love in a door that are in throughout Texas, but we were I just saw a couple of them last week and talking about the home insurance market and how much it has gone up. So it's really something very very significant.

I hadn't heard before reading Mark's column yesterday. I hadn't heard this about Texas. I'd only heard it about Florida and California. Yeah, so it's happening everywhere.

And broadening it out, all right, Mark Gongloff, he's editor at Bloomberg Opinion. As Tim said, check out his column. He can find it at Bloomberg dot com and also on the Bloomberg terminal.

Romuck the journal.

How about you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, who's.

Honey? Please?

I'll do the ride.

Gravel, Let's wait, I want to dry.

It's a good question.

This is the drive to the globe down con to me, I think, well, Bern on Bluemberg Radio.

All right, well, look at that.

We have less than eighteen minutes to go to the close of trading, and we are at the best levels of the day on the s and P five hundred and the nasdak can posit up more than one percent on the Nasdaq, the SMP up more than eight tens of percent, of Dow Carroll up by seven tens of one percent.

Yeah, we've got a rally underway again. Let's get to it. Our drive to the closed. Guest is Nautia level. She's senior US equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Back with us from New York City, Naughtie, Good to have you here with us this run up. Does it feel like, I don't know, a rally based on fundamentals or do you feel like there's a little bit of euphoria in it?

I think it's a rally based on fundamental So, I mean you had been seeing the market somewhat in a whole impattern ahead of you know, CPI tomorrow and then the start of their new season, but the position in it started. I think we have a sense of where.

The macro might be headed.

It's clear that things are slowing down of the job market is cooling, and inflation looks to be cool in too. We'll get more tomorrow and CPI and then PPI later in the league. But you know, going back, what really matters at.

The end of the day, it's the.

Micro and that's what's going to drive the market. You know, we are at the start of the earning season as upon us, I mean, consensus expectation going into the season is a higher varieties for high single digits earnings growth.

But I think what's encouraging is that those earnest estimates.

Have been fairly resilient on a lot of downgrades, nor are you seeing any sort of negative pre announcement. So it does feel like companies will be able to beat expectations and that can push a market high. I would say, though, you know, I've been bullish this year, and so do you think that there's still more upsides to the market. But I would characterize it was a bit more cautiously optimistic, and that has to do with just the speed, the magnitude, and the narrowness of the rally that we've seen recently, and where valuations are and the fact that you do have a bit of a slowdown in the economy, and you have some looming concerns around the health of a consumer, and you have you know, riseing you know, political risks as well that could costs of volatility in the market, Carol.

Of those things that you just mentioned, Nadia, which one is sort of top risk for you? Is it politics? Is it a consumer that could be weakening a little bit, as a job market that's starting to show fractures.

What's top of mind, what's top of the list, top.

List is the consumer.

You know that we are a consumer driven economy and they're resilient.

Of the consumer.

Over the last couple of years is what's helped surprise growth to the upside. And so you're starting to see a bit of a slow down there. You know, look at wherely you're seeing retail sales come in. I am the likes, but that's the consumer still seems to be spend in.

I mean, they are spending.

On more travel and leisures sort of things. But it's something that we continue to watch. You're also seeing within the consumer discretionary segment. I mean, this is one of the reasons why I've been less optimistic on that is that you are some of the consumer search for value. We're seeing some discounting happening there, and even in there, you know, those value meals are not necessarily increasing cold traffic, and so we are leaning more into more the secular growth stories and less in the cyclical growth stories because of concerns on the margins of a potential slowdown in the consumer.

What do you make though of some of the rally that we continue to see in some of the tech names, specifically, do you factor them out, Nadia, in terms of their valuations and their fundamentals or do you feel supportive of that as well.

You know, tech as we don't strong you know, you're to date strong today. We do have a preference for the sector. We think that these company these are going to be able to dominate second quarter earnings again. But that said, Carol, you know, valuation, most of that has expanded quite a bit. I mean, you have a sector that's now traded at dirt over thirty one times four p versus back in May when things looked a little bit better, I mean, was traded at twenty six times. And so it feels like maybe some of the quota has been pre traded, you know, but looking into the quarta things that what we're going to be listening for is AI implementation. What does the cappet budgets look like, especially as we approach twenty twenty five, and is that spending sustainable after we got lifts in you know, Q one, but all of a sudden down, We do think that this sector will remain resilient. We know that there are some concerns around potential slowdown and growth for tech as we get later in the year, but that's you know, a lot of large numbers these companies are still the sector is going to still grow on the high teams by the time we get to the end of the year, and they could be upside. We're seeing cyclophoree recovery. I mean, look at you know, TSMC this morning in terms of posting of them expected June sales numbers. That's positive for the AI trade. We're seeing some green shoots around recovery in PCs and smartphone as well that could potentially drive upside for text. So even though valuations are extended, we still like the sector.

Nadia, as we've been mentioning throughout the day, We're at Bloomberg Green Festival in Seattle right now. Top of mind for us is everything happening with our climate which brings us to ESG. And in the last couple of years it's certainly become I think a four letter word to a lot of people. How are you thinking about ESG and are you still having clients coming to you and saying we want to deploy money with sort of an ESG layer.

Yeah, there is still quite a bit of a client and interest in ESG. I mean some of the areas that we've been focused on, it's really like energy transition, you know, so they are parts of the energy sector that is actually the position to benefit from outher renewables in utilities as well. And also don't forget about industrial I means r key into the transition uh to to clean energy and provide in some of the notes and bolts around that. So that's one of the reasons why we are also positive on industrials. So so clients continue to focus on that. But I would say, like again, you know, it is tech that dominates a story, and so we do try to recommend things that are more green tech oriented, if you will, on a global basis, when it comes to ESG.

Nadia, the inflation print tomorrow, coming off of two days of testimony and by Tara fed Powell, could that possibly impact in any way your investment outlook?

Well, not really, because we have been you know, our true rate couch for quite some time. I would say, Carol, wouldn't you say that Erman Powell kind of winked at us in the last few days in terms of his more dubbish commentary. You know, it's surround and acknowledging that you know, the labor was.

Called boring today, Nadia, he was called boring.

You know he hasn't knowledged you know, significant cooling in the labor market and the use of the term fully back into balance and acknowledging the progress we've made on inflation. So it does feel like he's winkedness in.

The rate cut is on the horizon.

We'll see what CPI brings tomorrow. I mean that could help the more cyclical areas and interest rates pensitive areas of the market, particularly unlock like areas like the houses. But we know monetary policy acts for the lag and so the effect doesn't want to wait too long either. I mean, there's already We're ready at above you know, four point one percent on the unemployment rate, you know, where as the FED was respecting four percent by the end of the year. I mean, daily has promoted in terms of inflection points in the labor market. So it does feel like, you know, the totality of the data is pointing towards a cutting. We think that comes in September, and we think that, you know, Chairman Powell is starting to message out.

Nadia Levell, senior US equity strategists that UBS Global Wealth Management joining us are from New York.

Good to chat with you.

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