Dissecting Bills Possible Playoff Opponents | Bills By The Numbers Ep. 117

Published Jan 2, 2025, 6:07 PM

On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker discuss the playoff scenarios entering Week 18 and the preferred wild card opponent for the Bills. They discuss the to-do list for the Bills as they enter the postseason. Steve is quizzed on playoff history in The Numbers Game. Finally, Chris and Steve give their answer to this week's One Burning Question - will the Bills break the record for most points off of turnovers? 

Happy New Year people, It's Bills by the Numbers, where we let the stats tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented by Vando, will make every moment more coming up. Is there a preferred first round opponents for the Bills for Super wild Card weekend? We discussed and what might be on the to do list for the Bills to be fully prepped for the postseason, and as always, will have our one burning question, how do we get the Week eighteen already? Welcome to twenty twenty five. Everybody, Happy New Year, Bill's Wall of Famer Steve Tasker, Bills played by Playmack Chris Brown with you and while the Bills will be playing out the string in Week eighteen, this weekend in New England, we examined what Buffalo could be facing on Super wild Card weekend As the AFC's number two seed in the playoffs heading into Week eighteen, there are three potentials Buffalo could face in the wild Card round. Cincinnati Denver and Miami Denver enters Week eighteen in a win, and in scenario the Broncos host the Chiefs in Denver and Andy Reid will likely be playing a lot of backups. Knowing the Chiefs have clinched the top seed and the buy in the AFC playoffs. So let's examine this potential opponent. First, Steve at first blush, what strikes you about the Broncos with a rookie quarterback in bow Knicks and a veteran's Super Bowl winning coach in Sean Pte.

Well, they certainly got the right recipe. They've got a really good defense, they've got a talented young quarterback and a head coach who's been there before. I think what Sean Payton's gonna do with bow Knicks is going to give them a shot at being that team that really does challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West. They the talent set that bo Nicks brings to the table is something that Sean Payton never had when he was down in New Orleans when he won World Championship and went to another Super Bowl with Drew Brees.

Knicks can run the ball. He's an athlete.

He's got a big, strong arm, and he's that kind of he's like a Josh Allen type of player. He does not have the quick decision making ability that Breeze does, maybe not quite the accurate arm that Breze did, but Sean Payton knows how to use those that skill set as well as any head coach out there. Sean Payton is a brilliant offensive mind and he's going to maximize bo Nicks and with a defense like the one they've got it, that's a recipe that's going to take them deep.

Yeah. I mean, they did suffer some bad injuries on the defensive side of the ball and it's compromised their level of effectiveness there. And the other achilles heel for them, I think is their inability to run the ball with any measure of consistency. They've had a tough time doing that and if you get in a bad weather game, they could have issues there. Statistically speaking, the Broncos have defended the run well all season long, where they've ranked in the top ten almost all year on def right now, they rank eighth in the league in run defense and they lead the league in sacks with fifty eight. They are also exceptional in defending the red zone, where they are a top five unit, currently allowing touchdowns to their opponents less than forty seven percent of the time on red zone possessions. That's good for fourth best in football. But we know coach McDermott has a good history against rookie quarterbacks and one of the areas, as I said, where Denvil has struggled a bit is on third down conversions, where they rank eighteenth only thirty seven percent conversion rate. Do you feel confident that Buffalo's defensive staff can come up with some exotic looks on third down to cross up Bownicks should this matchup happen.

Sure, But the Bills have struggle on third down defensively, Yes, that's the problem. It's weakness on weakness, I would say, yeah, I would give Bill. I always give the defense the edge of that because it's hard to decipher it, and the Bills are playmaking defense. I think that you can expect them to do that once in a while in this game if they were to meet, and I would I would tend to tilt it towards the coaching staff or the other team rather than the rookie quarterback on on the Broncos Bo Nicks as good as he has played, but I think that is a critical question in how this game would turn out, and I think you can expect it to go both ways at different times in the game. So I think it would kind of come out as a coin flip. You know, they'll probably convert some third downs on a driver two that may end up in some points, and I think the Bills could get some three and outs on them. Then you got to see what happens in the rest of the game. But that's a really good question. I don't know that there's a real answer to until you see it play out. But the Bills would would throw some effort, and like they have, they're throwing some effort into the third down defenses they're called depending on you know, it's all opponent, you know, dependent which what type, whether it's pressure, whether it's cover, reached man's own. I think I would give the edge to the Bills coaching staff and Bob Babbitt, particularly as the game wears on, where they have been so good at adjusting.

The second half especially, And look, as much as respect as I have for Sean Payton, you know, in his long and distinguished resume, as good a game plan or as many answers as he can provide bo Nicks. Bo Nicks is the one that's got to go out there and do it. And even though the guy's got more than sixty starts in college and played in some high level games. I don't think he's seen an atmosphere like this here during the playoffs, and that will be an adjustment for him as well. Second possible opponent the Miami Dolphins, who with a win over the Jets and a Denver loss, would get the seven seed. Buffalo has seen Miami twice this season, obviously winning thirty one to ten and thirty to twenty seven, needing a sixty one yard field goal from Tyler Back to beat them the second time here in Buffalo, beating a team a third time in a season. As we know, Steve is difficult and devon a Chan. Steve has kind of become the focal point of this offense late in the season. It's not tyreek Hill anymore. It is a Chan who has been a persistent problem for the Bills to defend along with everybody else. And it's more as a pass catcher in space than as a running back. What would your thoughts be on a matchup with Miami?

This might be the matchup I like the least of the three possible ones via Denver, Miami, and Cincinnati. I think this Miami team knows.

The Bills all too well.

They have all too much internal motivation not to get thumped a third time. And this last time that the Bills played Miami here in Buffalo, Miami's offense was very good, very good. That matchup is the one I think that makes the Bills most vulnerable to because they're they're so well known by their opponent, and their opponent's got some guys, Like you said, a Chan is a little bit like the it's the Dolphins James Cook, dynamic athlete, and they've got a guy that can use him. So if you're not buttoned up when you get him, then of course they've got something the Bills don't. That's Tyreek Hill, who is a you know, he takes the lid off and makes create space for Jalen Waddle, the whole gang. Miami has some weapons that force you to play defense in a certain way.

You've got to keep a lid on it.

You've got to keep two safeties back at least, if not go cover three and go three safeties, and that creates space for Jalen Waddle and a Chan And it's a lot to cover.

Yeah, and the familiarity, Yes, it's a problem. The Bill's history against the Dolphins is fantastic, especially recently. But all that being said, the Dolphins aren't coming in here unaware of what the atmosphere is going to be like, unaware of what the weather's going to be like, although the weather could play a factor. Also, we know two is history in poor weather anything under forty degrees. I don't think he has a victory, or if he does, he has one. I think he's like h to eight in sub forty degree temperatures, and it's going to be below that by a wide margin by the time we get the wild card weekend because the weather's taking a major dip here in the next week, so that's a factor. Also, the thing that's most impressive to me about the Dolphins is how much their defense has improved under new coordinator Anthony Weaver. I don't think they had everything lined up the way they wanted. They had to overcome some veterans who were on reserve pup like Bradley Chubb and then Jalen Phillips. They lose. You look at this, Miami is a top five defense overall in the league, top ten against the pass, top five against the run, top five and third down defense and second in the league in red zone defense. New defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver, you got to tip your hat to him. He has done a really good job rounding that group into a more consistent unit. And Chop Robinson, their first round pick, has been a force in the second half of his rookie season. Since taking on a full time role, he has six six sacks on the year. Cincinnati needs the most help to qualify for the postseason. They need to win in Week eighteen against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and then they need Denver and Miami to both lose their opponent Saturday. The Steelers could have something to play for if the Ravens lose earlier in the day on Saturday, namely the AFC North title and a three seed.

A three seed home playoff can yeah.

If the Ravens win, the Steelers may not have much to play for, since it would mean the difference between the five and the sixth seed, though by winning they would avoid playing Baltimore in the wild card round, they would go to Houston instead. To me, that's enough a play for the victory, But we'll see what Mike Tomlin decides to do based on how the Baltimore game plays out, which is earlier in the afternoon. Then the Steelers play the Steelers playing at four. So either way, if the Steelers can't win this game, they're on the road. So what about the Bengals who have won five in a row to keep themselves in playoff contention right to the end?

Yes, uh, I don't know this.

These three these games are Steelers are in Baltimore's in sooner or later, you're gonna have to deal with those guys. Cincinnati. They were at one point four percent chance to get in.

It's marginally better now, right.

There's a reason for that to me. Their defense is not good enough. All they need to do is have their offense just get off the field one time on a possession, and you beat this team.

I just the Bengals are not the team they were two years ago.

Well, they're certainly not the complete team that they were two years ago.

And I and as much respect as I've got for Joe Burrow, that offense, he gets sacked a little too much. They're off their their passing game is elite, Yes, their receiver talent is elite, But I think that is a better matchup in some ways for Bill. The Buffalo defense that's playmaking. Throw go ahead and throw it a bunch is one of those times in there, we're gonna tip it an interceptor, We're gonna tip it and knock it down. On third down, we're gonna get a sack, we're gonna get a pressure. We're gonna get whatever we need. It's the kind of game that the Bill's defense has been so good at because of their offense.

Is Josh Allen.

The Bill's ability to complement that defense. You give an extra possession, they get points on it. They don't just change feel position. It costs teams when they don't score against this Bill's offense and this Bill's defense with that offense playing with it, they know they're gonna get a lot of throws and they make plays too often, Yeah, to lose games. And I think so, I think that Miami. I mean, I think that Cincinnati matchup is one that.

I don't know.

It's not desirable. None of these are desirable. They're all good teams, but that's the one that actually meshes with Buffalo. I think that gives them a chance to maybe hang in there with those games.

Yeah, maybe I'm just blind to quarterback stock here because if you line up these three quarterbacks for the three potential wildcard opponents, Burrow and bow Nicks, I don't want to see Burrow. I'm sorry, that's right, Like, that's the guy I don't want to see. I think Cincinnati is a much more beatable team, as evidenced by their record. I mean, they've got eight losses. That's evident enough. They're not the team they were two years ago. I would agree with you wholeheartedly. But they have the number one passing offense in football. They're the sixth highest scoring team in football, even though they can't run the ball at all, and their defense sits in the bottom third of the league in most categories. And because of that, they're twenty ninth in points allowed. So they've been one dimensional almost every week. Just to stay in the game, they have to throw the ball well because their defense can't stop anybody.

They're eight and eight. Yeah, they're eight.

Teams have beating them, yeah, and you know, they.

Just haven't been able to put it together well enough.

This is the thing that's shocking for me. Their defense, which still has Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard at defensive end, is last in the league in sack percentage. Now, part of that is likely due to the fact that opponents are up on them score wise, they don't have to throw as much, but it is a precipitous drop from where they used to be, and they have the second worst red zone defense in the league, giving up touchdowns more than two thirds of the time. We realize the quarterback isn't anything, but it is a big comp as to why the Bengals are still alive in the playoff race. So let's pose the quarterback question to you. See which quarterback would you be most concerned to face of these three? Let's just go quarterback only Bonnicks to Uh.

It's gotta be Joe.

Yeah, he's he's a gamer too.

And he's a gamer, and he's got there.

They've built it around. They're fully formed offensively bow necks. I still think they need they They could use another big time why you know that kind of stuff. Maybe a big running back for sure. So there's still some things around these quarterbacks.

They need Tua he's limited.

It's January, and kid, it's January, and it's and it's when his.

Arm turns into a pumpkin.

Yeah, he melts in the cold right. Uh so if you get that so he Yeah, Tua is a known commodity. They've got it fully formed around him like they do Joe Burrow. But it's you know, here's the thing.

They can't.

They have a hard time, even with all their weapons. They have a hard time taking the lid off your defense because Tua has to let it go so early because of his.

Arm, you can break on it.

So he's got to release it quick or it's going to be a ten or fifteen yard completion in the air. He never has any air yards under his ball because he has to put such arc on him. The guy has to be completely open for the ball to get there in time before an athlete in the NFL can break on it knock it away.

I don't worry about that.

In January in Buffalo, it's going to be a dink and dunk affair with Tua. So I would go Joe Burrow, then Tua, and then bow Nicks, but only because only because I think Tua and Burrow have this, you know, their fully formed NFL offenses, and they can find different ways to beat you. I'm not aware, yes, and I'm not sure that the Denver Broncs with bo. You know, I have the running game and that kind of stuff to lean on the way the other two guys do. Yeah, I mean I still think Sean mcpayton's got a lot of things he wants to change about and evolve in this offense.

Yeah, I mean, Courtland Sutton's a nice number one receiver for Denver. But beyond that, they don't have a ton of weapons. And you look at the weapons at Cincinnati has with Kasicki, Chase and Higgins, and then you pivot to the Dolphins and we know their weapons all too well, ah, chan Hill and Waddle. I mean, they have better weapons collectively on offense. So yeah, I would tend to kind of side with you in terms of the order there. Burrow to u Nix. We pivot now to the Numbers game, where Steve will be quizzed on NFL Playoff trivia. Here we go, question number one since twenty twenty, what NFL club has won the most wild Card playoff games?

Says twenty twenty. Yeah, oh, Buffalo, it.

Is the Buffalo Bills. Indeed one we won.

We won one every game every year.

For four total. I forgot to write the total now I had to do the math in my head there, which is never a good thing. Question number two, since twenty twenty, how many times has the two seed reached the conference title game? Keep in mind we've got two conferences, so you have two two seeds every year three and you would nail it. Steve three times. Buffalo did it in twenty twenty, Kansas City in twenty twenty one, San Francisco in twenty twenty two. Steve is two for two, cooking here in twenty twenty five. Question number three since twenty twenty, how many three seeds have reached the conference title game? One? It's actually three three again. Trick question, trick questions, trick answer, trick answer.

It's a trick.

Okay, we'll google that and see what comes up. Cincinnati and twenty twenty two was the three seed went all the way to the Super Bowl? Kansas City and Detroit last year. No team in twenty or twenty one from the three seed collection advance to the conference title game. And question for Steve, what has been the biggest playoff game blowout since twenty twenty. I'm just looking for the point differential between the winner and the loser. What do you think was the biggest point differential blowout since twenty twenty.

In the playoffs, I always go to the Bill's Patriots, where it was forty two.

You know, the Bill scored forty seven, forty seven.

If they scored seventy thirty, that's the only one I can really let me think. Yeah, I'll say the Bill's perfect game.

It was second. Oh, the thirty point differential is second. In twenty twenty two divisional playoff, the Eagles crushed the Giants thirty eight to seven. That was a thirty one point differential. And then last year wild card playoff, Joe Flacco turned into a pumpkin when they went down to Houston. Houston crushed them forty five to fourteen, another thirty one point decision. So that just eked out the Bill's perfect That was a good guess though.

That's the only on what I can remember, all.

Right, So that is the numbers game.

Not bad.

Steve came out of it, came out of the blocks hot.

There.

Bills fans get in on the action with FanDuel America's number one sportsbook. Just download the app today to play any way you want. Plus with live betting, you'll get updated odds on games that have already started. Best of all, you get page your winnings fast, make every moment more with FanDuel Official Sportsbook partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one burning question. The Bills currently lead the league and points scored off takeaways with one hundred and twenty two. They need one more touchdown off a turnover to break the team record of one hundred and twenty seven in twenty eleven. Will the Bills get it on Sunday with one Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback.

Well, here's the thing. I do think they'll get a turnover, particularly if if Drake May. If they sit Drake May down and he doesn't play, Joe Milton is playing, Joe Milton is playing another rookie, there is a chance for them to get that turnover, no question. The problem is you think they can score on those guys, And if they do, will they be able to punch it into the end zone? Will they just get a three pointer right and and get a you know it'd be one twenty four to one to twenty seven, then get two field goals off two turnover that then it becomes dicey. So I would say, I would say probably not. I know I'm gonna go with no because it points off turnovers are now it could happen that the you know, they get a pick six. But yeah, I'm gonna say no just because I think this is gonna be a low scoring game. I think points are going to be at a premium. And I don't know that he Either team is gonna with the quarterbacks there are gonna move the ball effectively.

They're gonna end.

Plus the game plan for the Bills is gonna be you know, football one oh one.

So I get it.

I'm gonna have to say I don't think so.

Steven Joe Milton, I trust big arm quarterback. I think he's gonna want to make an impression, chance to play for the first time this year. He's probably gonna start because Drake May has even got a finger injury from last week's game. He's limited in practice.

Amazingly, Drake May is too valuable to risk in a game that doesn't mean anything, plus that you get more out of by losing.

Yeah, so you know, I think Joe Milton is gonna be slinging it around and he's got a rocket arm. Don't get me wrong, but it's not the most accurate. Having watched him at tennessee a good deal in college. So in Joe Milton, I trust. I think he's gonna give a couple of freebies to the Bills. And I see two field goal drives. Oh, there you go, lifting that's right to a new team record. They only need that'll tie. That'll tie the record though, No, they have one hundred and twenty two. Oh though the records seven two field goals will do it all right, let's see.

Yeah, I think it's going to be very close. You think turnovers are the most unrepredictable, they're the most they're the most pertinent stat out there. Yeah, that's not the score, and they're the most unpredictable, right.

Our closing figure addresses the recent history against Buffalo's three potential wild card opponents. Denver has one win this season against a team over five hundred, that was Tampa Bay in Week three, and Buffalo and Denver have faced each other just once in the postseason, the ninety one AFC Title Game, won by This Guy's Bills ten to seven. Buffalo has won thirteen of the last fourteen meetings with the Dolphins, counting the playoffs. Yeah, Miami has not won in Buffalo since Week sixteen of the twenty sixteen season, when Tyrod Taylor and Matt Moore were the quarterbacks and it took overtime to do so and ten men on the fields on defense for Buffalo and the Bills. In Bengals with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow at quarterback have faced off twice counting the playoffs. The twenty twenty two Divisional round playoff won by Cincinnati twenty seven to ten, just a few weeks after the Demorrow Hamlin incident canceled their regular season game in Week seventeen and Week nine last season in Cincinnati also won by the Bengals twenty four to eighteen. Do with that what you will. That'll do it for this edition. If you haven't already, please subscribe to our show on whatever podcast platform you use, because when you need to know about the bills, you need to check Bills by the numbers. For Steve Tasker, I'm Chris Brown. Happy New Year, everybody. Ooh

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