Coaching Connections For Broncos vs. Bills | Bills By The Numbers Ep. 118

Published Jan 9, 2025, 5:12 PM

On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker examine the long history between Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Broncos head coach Sean Payton. They discuss head-to-head matchups between the two, how well they know each other's coaching philosophies, and McDermott's record against rookie quarterbacks. They look at the coaching tree between the two and how that may be of importance in this game. Steve is quizzed on NFL Wild Card history in The Numbers Game. Finally, Chris and Steve give their answer to this week's One Burning Question - who will be the difference maker in this playoff matchup between the Bills and Broncos? 

Welcome to a wildcard edition of Bills by the Numbers, where we let the stats tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented by fan Duel Meg Every moment more coming up. There's a long history between Sean McDermott and Sean Payton. We examined the long list of their head to head matchups and other coaching connections that could impact Sunday's game. What is coach McDermott's history against rookie quarterbacks? And we'll have our one burning question time to be championship caliber. Glad to have you with us here on Bill's By the Numbers, Bill's Wall of Famous Steve Actor, Bill's play by playmate Chris Brown with you, and this wild card game between the Bills and Broncos has been sliced eighteen different ways. This week, we'd like to take a look at a matchup that probably hasn't gotten enough attention, and that's the one between the two head coaches, Sean McDermott and Sean Payton. Bt wits between the two Shawns really began back in twenty eleven when McDermott was hired by Ron Rivera in Carolina to be his defensive coordinator with the Panthers twice a year for six seasons, they squared off as the offensive and defensive play callers every time the Panthers played the Saints. Now New Orleans was at their peak in twenty eleven. They were a year removed from their Super Bowl title and Peyton and the Saints went thirteen and three that year. They were unbeaten at home and the Panthers were a six and ten club trying to get on the right side of their record. The first matchup was close, won by the Saints thirty to twenty seven. Peyton's offense rolled up almost four hundred and fifty yards on Carolina. Second game was a laugher forty five seventeen Saints as they were primed for a postseason run that would end in the Divisional round. Peyton put it on the Panthers as they had almost four hundred total nine yards at halftime finished with over six hundred, though he did have backup quarterback Chase Daniel kneel out the clock in the red zone at the end of the game. So in these three things, steve thing number one. When you have two ultra competitive coaches like this going up against one another and one just doesn't have the horses to compete. What kind of seeds does that show in the coach who doesn't have everything he needs in a given matchup.

Well, you learn something from everything and every experience, and certainly you also learn where your most vulnerable. They show you what other people see when you. When you get when you match up with a coach and you see their schemes and how they're attacking, you understand what they see in you. Uh, And it's uncomfortable sometimes. It's like in our business when you go back and you watch yourself that some of the segments you do on live television and think, you know, wish that's what it's like to watch film of yourself coaching. And I think that's part of where Sean McDermott's mindset came from. This this growth mindset. You got to get better, and you've got to go back and look at the ugly truths of where you've been and going against good coaches like Sean Payton teach you a lot.

Well, that's what I was going to say, because I think it's the it's the coordinators that challenge you the most, that push you to areas maybe sometimes you didn't know you could reach either creatively, tactically schematically, And I think these two guys, probably more than anything, only made another better.

It also teaches you how to use your roster. McDermott is has been brilliant in his time in Buffalo at getting the most out of the guys he's got on the field, and going against good coaches like Peyton twice a year when he was in Carolina as a coordinator is a good ingredient.

In that yeah. In twenty twelve, Peyton was out on suspension for bounty gate, but in twenty thirteen they'd split the season series, with the Saints winning the first matchup thirty one to thirteen, losing the second as McDermott's defense clamped down in a seventeen to thirteen victory for Carolina. With the Panthers finishing twelve and four, they had turned the corner, though they got bounced in the wildcard round by San Francisco. All told, over those twelve NFC South matchups between McDermott as the defensive coordinator Peyton as the head coach calling the offensive plays, neither team won more than three in a row in the series. Obviously, the twenty fifteen Panthers went all the way to the Super Bowl, ultimately falling to the Broncos in the end. McDermott under head coach Ron Rivera went seven to five against Peyton Saints points four three thirty three points against three forty three, a ten point difference over a six year, twelve game span, but Peyton's team average twenty eight and a half points per game against Carolina. Different teams and a decade ago, but that division series seemed to be hotly contested like most are with good coaches involved.

Yeah, and in over six years, you know that those teams changed dramatically roster wise under those coaches, so they had to do it different ways, and what worked one year they didn't have the horses to do the next year, but they did have some strengths in other areas. So it's it's a total test of those two coaches and what they do against each other over six year period. You get a real handle on what makes the other guy take and what he can do with what he's got.

Yeah, and really during that stretch, those two teams were the class of the NFC South, like Tampa and Atlanta. Really, I mean, they were competitive. Matt Ryan was in Atlanta, you know, they were competitive, and towards the end, they finally, you know, got to a Super Bowl toward the end of Matt Ryan's career. But those those two teams were just button heads every year during that stretch when Shawn was there as the defensive coordinator. Where things appeared to get interesting was in Sean McDermott's first year as head coach in Buffalo. The Bills hosted the Saints in twenty seventeen. In Week ten, Peyton still there as head coach. They had just given up the Bills one hundred and ninety four rushing yards to the Jets in a road loss the week before. Peyton challenged them in much the same way, mark ingram Alvin Kamara roll in and combined for two hundred and thirty seven yards on the ground in four touchdowns. Now, you can't really blame Peyton for how this game played out, but in the third quarter, up thirty to three, Peyton calls ten consecutive run plays that go for ninety four yards, culminating in a seven yard run by Drew Brees for the touchdown to go up thirty seven to three. At the end of the third quarter. Then when they get the ball back, Peyton runs it nine more times, and then when he's in a fourth and three at the Bill's thirty eight yard line, calls a pass play to pick up the first down and then runs it three more times to kick a fifty three yard field goal to make it forty to three. Bills get stopped on the next possession on a fourth and one, and the Saints run it twice, with the second run going forty one yards for a touchdown forty seven to three. Now the game ends forty seven to ten, but let's just say that the fourth and three play probably wasn't well received on the Buffalo sideline. What do you remember about that game?

There was some stuff I remember that it did seem like even in that game, even though they were running it and doing all that, I was a fan in this game. This is one of the few games in my life that I already sat in the stands for the game. I wasn't doing a game for CBS at the time and had weekend off, and I was. I came out of there, I was I was mad at the Saints for the way that game went. But when you say, well, they were running the ball. I mean what they were doing what they could do. And the Bills were not a very good.

Team three though, up thirty seven to three, and you're throwing a pass, Yeah, you kick a fifty three like yeah, yo, dude, I get like, God, God, but they did give the Bills a chance to stop them.

They ran the football, the pass play. I get that. That was a little bit of no question wanting to take the game over yourself and just end it your own way. That was a That was a game I thought the next time they played McDermott would remember. But let's face it, this is just one game in the series of a bunch for these two's, right, And look, notting the ball as much as they did takes the sting out of it. Yes, because the Bills just were not good enough.

Then no, they weren't. And and facts are facts. And look Sean Payton, knowing him and the way he operates, he would say, look, I'm just running the ball. You know I'm running it. If you're good enough, stop it. If you can't, I can't help you.

And you know I can not mind you. You're not gonna add You're not gonna throw backups in or anybody in and say, don't give your best right and there's only so much you can do on game day because you don't have that many backup. It's not only so many guys you can pull off the field. You know, you still got to run Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, they're the only guy you know, so right. But at the same token, yeah, it was a stark reminder of how far the Bills had to go.

The Bills would not face the Saints again until twenty twenty one on Thanksgiving, and Buffalo had a bit of an unfair advantage as New Orleans had to start their third string quarterback Trevor Simeon. The Bills scored the first twenty four points of the game as their offensive output was only briefly interrupted by a Nick Vannittt touchdown for New Orleans and a failed two point conversion before it finished thirty one sixth final as the Bills had almost thirty five minutes of possession time, so the worm had definitely turned. It didn't feel like Buffalo was trying to exact revenge in any way down there in Super Dome, but it was a very one sided game, much like the forty seven to ten game four years early.

It did not seem like that at all. In fact, I was I remember the twenty seventeen game. I was going, yeah, give it to him good, you know. I was, Yeah, I gotta be honest. I was like, yeah, get it back. Sean didn't. I remember thinking, man, he could have done something there, and he did poured it on. He could have poured it on and he didn't. But then again too, and I'll say this on both sides, both in twenty seventeen, for Sean Payton in Buffalo and then you know Sean McDermott in New Orleans in twenty twenty one. It's not about the guy you're playing sometimes it is. That's very late. You're thinking about the guys on your team. You're doing what you can for the next week. You get your team better. You're doing what it takes to get your team and keep your team sharp. The other team can do their own thing and worry about their problems. You don't really head coach in the NFL have too much on their plate for their guys. Then think about rubbing it in, rubbing somebody's nose in it. For four years earlier, that kind of stuff. It's very rare that that happens. It's about your team. So whatever the Bills did in the time when they won thirty one six, Sean McDermott was thinking about his team and what they were doing going forward, rather than four years ago when he played Sean Payton and Peyton the same thing when it was forty one to ten. He's they're trying to get back to the Super They've got that taste in their mind. They're trying to hone themselves. So it's it's rarely personal for those guys.

And then last year Bill's Broncos Sean Payton, as Denver's first year head coach, accounted for Buffalo's last home loss Week ten in the regular season Monday Night Football. Josh Allen runs it in from six yards out to finally erase the deficit to give the Bills their first lead to the game. With one fifty five left and Russell Wilson drives the Broncos into field goal range. Will Lutz misses from forty one yards away wide right, no time on the clock, but as we know, the Bills have twelve men on the field, five yard penalty and Lutz connects from thirty six yards away to lift the Broncos to a twenty four to twenty two victory, lifting Denver to four and five on the season. And after that game the following Monday, Ken Dorsey was fired as bordinator of the Bills.

So back and watch that game. That's when you're thinking, man, what is going on?

Well, we had talked even on this program a lot about how everything looked like a heavy lift on offense. It looked difficult.

Yeah, it was. They were they Yeah, they looked wrong. That's the best way put it. They just looked wrong. You knew they had some talent, They should have been playing a lot better than they were. That had opportunities. They coughed the ball up too much. Josh is trying to lift do just it's just too much, and it looked like he didn't have enough help. But then he looked like guys were playing over their heads. I mean, the whole thing was out of kilter. And you know, kudos of the Bills for making the change when they did, and everything has been a little bit smoother sailing since.

Offensively, I wonder how Sean Payton views that game last year. Every you know, teams change and obviously I would argue the Bills are an even better team now than they were last year. Certainly at that.

Time by far, offensively, by far.

But you always wonder when you have a game in the recent past where you are matching wits, how many little things might you pull from that game after watching the film again, maybe there are some personnel matchups that still apply, and you know, just the little nuggets that coaches of this ILK and of this stature like McDermott and Peyton just pull from those games.

Certainly there's always something most of it would have been used last year going forward for the Bills. It was kind of a reset and a fresh start starting from there. But you go back and you look at and because there's some obviously some personnel, probably more personnel carryover for the Broncos than there is for the Bills, even because the Bills, you know, washed through their roster pretty big time now, Sean, and I'm not sure if I'm familiar enough with the Broncos and what happened in their offseason to think that they did as many New State Simmons, and you know, the quarterback is the easy one, and all that happened with the Russell Wilson turnover.

They moved on from Jis Judy.

Their defense is much better, The Bill's offense is much better. They're getting much better quarterback play, and they have more things they can do. Games do the Broncos and so do the Bills. Yes, it really is two very different teams than Week ten just a year ago.

We should also mention that Bill's offensive coordinator, Joe Brady was an offensive assistant under Payton for two seasons, so two was Bill's quarterbacks coach Ronald Curry, who coached under Payton for eight seasons, and then even Aaron Kromer, the offensive line coach, worked for Peyton with the Saints during their Super Bowl run. Meanwhile, Davis Webb is the quarterbacks coach for the Broncos who coached here and played here under McDermott and company. What kind of intel can they provide Coach McDermott and Bobby Babbage about Peyton regarding some of his play calling philosophy of anything Brady and Ronald Curry I'm talking about here? Or has McDermott seen enough of Peyton over the years to kind of know what you need to know? You watch the film and you know.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's it's not going to be like a division game, you know, where they know each other that well, because the person are different and you don't you haven't seen him up, you haven't seen your guys match up against him. You don't know exactly who can stand up and for how long. So there's that unknown there too. But there is some mindset in this coat in both coaching staffs that we will say, yeah, I know, you know, I don't forget that he may do. You know, they'll think about this, they'll think about that. We got to have a plan for this. We got to have a plan for that. Even if it never comes up. You've got some experience with the guy's mindset in preparation for this club. But let's face it, two this as much as they saw last year in that Week ten matchup, even with Josh Allen, Josh Allen's a different dude with different guys out there. This offense is vastly different than it was a year ago, and so is the Denver offense. So yeah, that and and it their quarterback is a very different animal, like most teams look at Josh as a different animal. So it's I don't know there's that much you can glean from it except for the mindset they have and what you got to be ready for.

Yeah, and I think they've gone against one another to know in certain situations, maybe when their adversary might be even more aggressive. Sean Payton's known as a guy that gets even more aggressive in the postseason, and undoubtedly Sean McDermott knows that. Even though I don't believe Carolina and New Orleans ever squared off in a playoff matchup during their respective tenures, there that overlapped.

Sean Payton's reputation, and this kind of playoff game with a rookie quarterback and all that, I would be disappointed if we didn't see something off trick play, special teams offense, reverse pass, double pass, flee flicker, shovel pass in the red zone kind of stuff, something that we haven't seen this offense do. There will be something that nobody has seen before this offense or the special team's crew do. I'd be surprised if that isn't on the menu and doesn't get called at least once in this game, maybe more than once.

We transition now to the numbers game, where Steve will be quizzed on NFL wild Card history. Let's do it. Question number one. Since twenty twenty, what do you think the average points per game scored was for AFC wild Card week winners? So since twenty twenty, these last four years, all the wild card winners, what do you think is the average points per game scored by the winners?

Thirty two points?

Oh man, you are right on it, Steve. I'm gonna give it. I'm gonna give it to you. It's thirty three point four. Gotta score to advancement, that's right.

And Wildcard weekend you get these games that are high emotion. Everybody's had. It's for the teams like Buffalo who've had it locked up for it's finally started. And for the teams that had to scratch and claw to get in, they go, we're gonna make a run. Let's go. So you get some great foot games and some teams that are you know, and this is like we just said about Sean Payton. You cut it loose, let's go, and and the results are you know, the winners are scoring thirty points.

Yeah. Only four of the twelve AFC winners over that span scored less than thirty points. Eight of the twelve scored thirty or more. Yeah, that's crazy. Question number two, since twenty twenty, what do you think is the average number of takeaways by the AFC wild Card winners? Average number of takeaways three?

I would say three and a half, three to three and a half something like that.

It's a little bit less. Two point one is the average number of takeaways by AFC wild Card winners. And you know, you look at the Bills, they had what thirty two takeaways this season and seventeen games got clost to two about too close to two. So hopefully that holds. Twenty five takeaways total in the twelve wild card games from twenty twenty to twenty three, that's the wild card winners. Wild card winners had twenty five takeaways. Question number three. The Denver Broncos Blitz at a rate of just over thirty seven percent, good for fourth highest in the league. They lead the league in sacks, as you know, with sixty three. What do you believe is Josh Allen's passer rating against the Blitz this season? It's higher.

One seventeen. It's higher.

Seriously, yeah, against the Blitzer.

One twenty one A little bit higher.

No.

One twenty four.

It's one twenty three point ten. It ranks third best in the NFL this season. You know that's that's.

A great stat for Josh and and you know so teams are kind of hesitant to do that, but it also is a credit to the guy the offensive line up in front of him. If they blitz, at least five of them are getting picked up.

Yeah.

And if you don't send six, and there's a free guy run and the running backs as well, somebody getting a piece of a guy, Josh having a way to get out of it. Yeah, that's that's a testament to everybody.

I feel like that gave you chicken skin.

You kind of did.

The reason that fast rating is so high this season. Against the Blitz, he had the third best touchdown to interception ratio sixteen to one. Yeah.

He's hard to get to and that's a problem.

Question number four. This is the Bill's sixth consecutive trip to the playoffs, tied for the longest streak in team history eighty eight to ninety three being the other group. And they have yet to win a Super Bowl. Okay, so what is the longest stretch of consecutive trips to the playoffs by an NFL club without a Super Bowl title.

It is not title or appearance super Bowl title.

Okay, and not your It's not your team that was six, and it won't be this team if they don't get there, because it's only been six, so someone's done it.

More true, I'll say, I'll just say, I'll say seven.

It is seven, so you're correct on the number. Can you recall a team and I'll I'll give you a hint. It's from your playing era. Think of a team that made the playoffs.

Say Cincinnati.

It is not Cincinnati. I don't think there is consistently in the playoffs. Not Cleveland. It is an AFC team.

They were going all the time with Marty Sean. Oh what about the Colts. Not the Colt that was after me though, with Peyton.

One more I'll give you.

I'm gonna say NFC team.

Went their year after year after year after year and just could not get to the promised land. Pittsburgh is the Houston Oilers, the crew.

I remember those guys. And that's a rough stretch for those guys.

Eighty seven to three, seven consecutive years to the postseason and nothing to show. For Stinger, not even an AFC title.

I played with a lot of those guys, not even an AFC titles. They didn't even get to the championship.

Yeah. Uh, Bill's fans get in on the action with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Just download the app today to play anyway you want. Plus with live betting, you'll get updated odds on games that have already started. Best of all, you get paide your winnings fast. Excuse me, make every moment more with FanDuel Official Sportsbook, partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one burning question, Steve, who is the difference maker in Sunday's wild card game against Denver? You could pick anybody either side of the ball, anything built player.

Yes, yeah, I'm gonna well, I mean.

Well, we're hoping they make a difference win the game.

Be Josh, I mean on the offense, although look for somebody outside of Josh.

I think we're kind of expecting Jos.

On the offensive side of the ball, I'll say Khalil Shakir. On the defensive side of the ball, I will say Christian Benford. I think yeah, And if it's not him, it's it's the corner, it's Rasoul or Christian. They've got. The Broncos have one guy they can really count on who's a really good player's Courtland Sutton, and I think Christian Benford is built for it and has the right mentality. If they if they followed him around, Benford could could hurt his ability to help the Broncos. That's who I think. I think it's going to be Benford.

And Okay, I'm going with the cook Man on offense and I'm going with Greg Russo on defense. I just think he's been a very consistent performer. He's got a single season career high eight sacks this season, and I just see him. This is a heavy screen team, as we know Denver because they really have Sutton and not a lot else in terms of guys that can win matchups down the field. So that's why Peyton throws screens all over the yard just to get the ball in guy's hands and go get some yards after the catch. Rousseau, as we know, is very keenly aware to that kind of passing game. We've seen him not passes down even intercept a few here and there.

Yeah, you got it.

I see him factoring in in that way, getting his hands in the passing lanes and maybe coming up with a takeover.

Yeah. The thing is, you get so hyped up in these games, and defensive players are notorious for it. For you come in, you got a free run to the quarterback and you just say I got him and it was by design. And all you gotta have antenna out of saying wait a minute, this is too easy, what's going on? And you gotta see some keys and film study helps a ton, and you can bet early in this game the Broncos will use some of that to take the starch out of the pass rush of the Bills. And you can also bet that bo Nix will take them deep once or twice early.

Oh yeah, they'll take their shots once again on to.

The yeah, to get them on, to get them to get the defense. You know know that we yes, we're not just a screen and draw and a quick release passing offense. So both those things will probably happen early in this game.

Knowing the Bills are playing a rookie quarterback in bo Nicks. Our closing figure deals with Sean McDermott's coaching record against rookie quarterbacks in both the regular season and the playoffs. Since taking over as head coach of the Bills, McDermott has fifteen games against rookie quarterbacks and he's compiled a record of eleven and four counting last week's throwaway game in New England in which they played largely backups. The collective statistics of those rookie quarterbacks a fifty seven percent completion percentage, ten touchdown passes, twenty one picks, and a collective passer rating of sixty two.

You're gonna get that against most rookie quarterbacks anyway. So most head coaches do have a good record against rookie quarterbacks because it's a hard league get play well in. But we've seen it firsthand. They struggle. They struggle with him. Bow Knicks is not a typical rookie we've got is not. We've got a handful of young quarterbacks in the league who don't struggle.

Jalen, Jayden Daniels, Jaden.

Daniels, bow Knicks to beat, and Drake may from name three of them, and Caleb Williams in Chicago. Maybe can't blame him for all of it. But you've got some young quarterbacks in the league now that are starting to tilt that back the other way. Still not easy to play quarterback in the NFL, particularly in your first year, although now he's through his first regular season he's not a rookie anymore.

Not easy to play in this building either. That'll do it for this addition, be sure to subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use or watch us on the Bills YouTube channel, because when you need to know about the Bills, you need to check Bills by the Numbers for Steve tasking around Chris Brown. Thanks for listening. We'll catch you next time. Everybody

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